Tag Archives: GDP

From Recession Fears to Too Good? What This Week’s GDP Data Will Tell Us – WSJ’s Take On the Week – WSJ Podcasts – The Wall Street Journal

  1. From Recession Fears to Too Good? What This Week’s GDP Data Will Tell Us – WSJ’s Take On the Week – WSJ Podcasts The Wall Street Journal
  2. After a robust third quarter, US economic growth will likely slow. That bodes well for rate cuts next year. CNN
  3. Economists Predict US Recession Unlikely, Mortgage Rates Soar, And China’s Economy Surpasses Expectations Benzinga
  4. US Prepares GDP Scorcher As Fed Goes Silent Heisenberg Report
  5. America’s economic hot streak is just warming up as early data suggests the fastest growth in nearly 2 years during 3Q Fortune
  6. View Full Coverage on Google News

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The economy is still slowing despite the good GDP number, BD8′s Barbara Doran – CNBC Television

  1. The economy is still slowing despite the good GDP number, BD8′s Barbara Doran CNBC Television
  2. We’re seeing people position for more volatility in back half of the year: WSJ’s Gunjan Banerji CNBC Television
  3. Macro uncertainties means market downside is still a ‘meaningful risk’, says Barclays’ Venu Krishna CNBC Television
  4. It’s safer to buy into companies that have negativity priced in, says VantageRock’s Avery Sheffield CNBC Television
  5. Renaissance Macro’s Jeff deGraaf is bullish on the market but still bearish on banking CNBC Television
  6. View Full Coverage on Google News

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Euro zone GDP, Fed meeting in focus

Euro zone economy posts surprise expansion in the fourth quarter, curbing recession fears

The euro zone grew 0.1% in the last quarter of 2022, according to preliminary Eurostat data released Tuesday.

Energy prices cooled off in the latter part of the year, bringing some relief to the euro zone’s broader economic performance.

The latest figures come after the euro area posted a 0.3% GDP increase for the third quarter.

Germany surprised to the downside at a country breakdown level. The biggest European economy contracted by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2022, with analysts now expecting Berlin will head into a recession.

— Silvia Amaro

UK grocery price inflation hits a record 16.7%

U.K. grocery price inflation hit a record 16.7% in the four weeks to January 22, an increase of 2.3% on the previous month, market research firm Kantar said Tuesday.

The figure, the highest since the company started tracking data in 2008, marks a further exacerbating of the country’s cost-of-living crisis, which has seen shoppers trade in branded food products for own-brand labels and discount retailers.

Consumers have been feeling the pinch from higher food prices as inflation soars.

Nathan Stirk | Getty Images News | Getty Images

“We thought inflation was coming down; the fact it’s gone back up isn’t great news,” Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, told CNBC. Grocers have been “boosting their own-label ranges especially, with sales of these lines growing consistently over the past nine months.”

Own-label lines grew by 9.3% over the period, while discount retailers Aldi became the fastest growing grocer for the fourth month in a row, just ahead of Lidl.

— Karen Gilchrist

Recession in Europe and U.S. still very possible, portfolio manager says

Data published Tuesday showed economic growth in France slowed from 0.2% to 0.1% in the fourth quarter, while retail sales in Germany unexpectedly fell in December.

Joost van Leenders, senior portfolio manager at Kempen Capital Management, told CNBC these and other indicators meant the picture going into 2023 was “not that strong” and the possibility of recession in Europe and the U.S. was “still firmly on the agenda.”

— Jenni Reid

Stocks on the move: UniCredit up 7.5%, Rheinmetall down 6%

UniCredit was the top performer in early trade, rising 7.5% after the bank promised to dish out 5.25 billion euros ($5.69 billion) to shareholders following bumper profits.

German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall dropped 6% despite yesterday announcing it had won a U.S. Army contract, alongside General Motors, to supply up to 40,000 trucks valued at up to $14 billion.

— Jenni Reid

European markets open lower with eyes on GDP data, central bank meetings

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index opened 0.2% lower, extending Monday’s slide as investors prepared to chew over a euro zone GDP flash estimate.

Figures published early Tuesday from France, the bloc’s second-largest economy, showed growth slowed from 0.2% to 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022. That was nonetheless ahead of expectations.

Most sectors were in the red in early trade, led by financial services, down 0.8%.

However, banks gained 0.6% after UniCredit and UBS beat profit expectations.

Stoxx 600 one-week performance.

Also dominating markets this week are central bank rate hike decisions due from the U.S. Wednesday and from the U.K. and eurozone Thursday.

— Jenni Reid

UniCredit hikes payout goal by 40% after record profit

UniCredit pledged on Tuesday to return 5.25 billion euros ($5.69 billion) to investors after posting its best profit in over a decade.

The bank said net profit came in at 2.46 billion euros in the three months through December, more than twice an average forecast of 1.10 billion euros ($1.2 bln) from analysts polled by the bank.

UniCredit said it expected to post a net profit in 2023 broadly in line with 2022 including its Russian business, after it had excluded this from its profit goal last year following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

It has failed to extricate itself from Russia where it owns a top 15 lender.

UniCredit one-year share price.

Swiss bank UBS gets a boost from higher interest rates, beats expectations in fourth quarter

UBS’ fourth-quarter profit beat market expectations, but the Swiss banking giant reported a fall in revenues on the back of weaker client activity and warned of an “uncertain” year ahead.

The bank reported $1.7 billion of net income for the fourth quarter of last year, bringing its full-year profit to $7.6 billion in 2022. 

Looking ahead, the Swiss lender said that revenues for the first quarter of 2023 were set to be “positively influenced” by higher client activity and interest rates, as well as by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in Asia.

However, it was cautious about the economic outlook more broadly, citing central bank activity as a potential catalyst for market volatility.

UBS said it will be purchasing more of its own shares this year.

Read the full story here.

— Silvia Amaro

European markets: Here are the opening calls

European markets are heading for a lower open Tuesday as investors focus on the next U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which begins today. The two-day meeting will conclude Wednesday with an announcement of the central bank’s latest interest rate decision.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 26 points lower at 7,758, Germany’s DAX 79 points lower at 15,052, France’s CAC down 40 points at 7,049 and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 125 points at 26,260, according to data from IG.

Earnings come from Pets at Home, UBS and Spotify, and data releases include fourth-quarter euro zone gross domestic product data. Preliminary German and French inflation data for January is also due to be released.

— Holly Ellyatt

CNBC Pro: What one tech fund manager is expecting from Apple and Alphabet earnings this week

Microsoft issued a disappointing revenue forecast last week, but its stock has since increased. What does that mean for the other Big Tech companies set to report earnings?

Tech fund manager Jeremy Gleeson, who manages the £1.1 billion ($1.5 billion) AXA Framlington Global Technology Fund, said there was enough bad news in Microsoft’s earnings to “spook” investors into selling the stock.

However, the fact that the stock is up by more than 2% subsequently is an “encouraging” sign for the rest of Big Tech’s earnings, Gleeson told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe”.

He shared his thoughts on what to expect from Apple and Alphabet this week.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Ganesh Rao

CNBC Pro: Tesla shares rose 30% last week. Here’s where Wall Street sees it going next

Just last week, the electric-vehicle maker’s stock leaped by more than 30% following its earnings announcement. This year so far, Tesla shares are up by around 44%.

It follows a bleak 2022 when Tesla shares slumped over 35% in December and around 65% over the year.

After all this volatility, here’s where Wall Street analysts see the stock going next:

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Weizhen Tan

CNBC Pro: Can Chinese stocks rally further? One investment bank thinks so — and names its top stock picks

The recovery in Chinese stocks gained steam on Monday, as China’s benchmark index came within striking distance of a bull market.

Bernstein’s analysts believe the rally has further to go and reveal their top stocks to play it.

Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Zavier Ong

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German economy unexpectedly shrinks in Q4, reviving spectre of recession

  • Q4 GDP at -0.2% Q/Q vs forecast of 0.0%
  • Decline due mainly to falling private consumption
  • Economists reckon mild recession is likely

BERLIN, Jan 30 (Reuters) – The German economy unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter, data showed on Monday, a sign that Europe’s largest economy may be entering a much-predicted recession, though likely a shallower one than originally feared.

Gross domestic product decreased 0.2% quarter on quarter in adjusted terms, the federal statistics office said. A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast the economy would stagnate.

In the previous quarter, the German economy grew by an upwardly revised 0.5% versus the previous three months.

A recession – commonly defined as two successive quarters of contraction – has become more likely, as many experts predict the economy will shrink in the first quarter of 2023 as well.

“The winter months are turning out to be difficult – although not quite as difficult as originally expected,” said VP Bank chief economist Thomas Gitzel.

“The severe crash of the German economy remains absent, but a slight recession is still on the cards.”

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said last week in the government’s annual economic report that the economic crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine was now manageable, though high energy prices and interest rate rises mean the government remains cautious.

The government has said the economic situation should improve from spring onwards, and last week revised up its GDP forecast for 2023 — predicting growth of 0.2%, up from an autumn forecast of a 0.4% decline.

As far as the European Central Bank goes, interest rate expectations are unlikely to be affected by Monday’s GDP figures as inflationary pressures remain high, said Helaba bank economist Ralf Umlauf.

The ECB has all but committed to raising its key rate by half a percentage point this week to 2.5% to curb inflation.

Monday’s figures showed falling private consumption was the primary reason for the decrease in fourth-quarter GDP.

“Consumers are not immune to an erosion of their purchasing power due to record high inflation,” said Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer.

Inflation, driven mainly by high energy prices, eased for a second month in a row in December, with EU-harmonized consumer prices rising 9.6% on the year.

However, analysts polled by Reuters predict annual EU-harmonized inflation will enter the double digits again in January with a slight rise, to 10.0%. The office will publish the preliminary inflation rate for January on Tuesday.

Reporting by Miranda Murray and Rene Wagner, editing by Rachel More and Christina Fincher

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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U.S. GDP Rose 2.9% in the Fourth Quarter After a Year of High Inflation

The U.S. economy grew at a solid 2.9% annual rate last quarter but entered this year with less momentum as rising interest rates and still-high inflation weighed on demand.

U.S. growth in the fourth quarter was down slightly from a 3.2% annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Consumer spending helped drive the fourth-quarter gain, while the housing market weakened and businesses cut back their spending on equipment.

The October-to-December period capped a year of economic slowdown with growth of 1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with a year earlier, down sharply from 5.7% growth in 2021. The slowdown in part reflected a return to a more normal pace of growth after output surged amid business reopenings, fiscal stimulus and a waning pandemic in 2021.

Markets were mixed following Thursday’s release. Investors have been closely scrutinizing economic data for signs that U.S. growth is coming under pressure from the Federal Reserve’s campaign of interest-rate increases aimed at cooling the economy and bringing down high inflation.

So far in 2023, many traders and portfolio managers appear satisfied that economic activity remains strong enough that a recession this year is far from certain. That conclusion, together with cooling inflation readings, has helped fuel a modest rebound in U.S. stock indexes following last year’s washout.

The Fed is on track to slow interest-rate increases when it meets next week and debate how much higher to raise them this year as it tracks inflation’s trajectory and other economic developments.

The labor market has cooled some but continues to run strong. Jobless claims—a proxy for layoffs—fell last week and held near historic lows, despite the spread of layoff announcements beyond tech companies.

Workers received large wage gains through the end of last year. That helped consumer spending, the economy’s main engine, grow at a solid annual pace of 2.1% last quarter.

Despite some signs of resilience, recent data suggest consumers and businesses are starting to falter. Retail sales fell last month at the sharpest pace of 2022. Surveys of U.S. purchasing managers found that higher interest rates and persistent inflation weighed on demand in January in the manufacturing and service sectors. Companies cut temporary workers in December for the fifth consecutive month, a sign that broader job losses could be on the horizon.

Many economists are concerned about the possibility of a U.S. recession this year. They worry that the Fed’s efforts to curb inflation could trigger broad spending cutbacks and job losses.

“Headwinds from the big jump in interest rates, consumers cutting back on discretionary spending and weak economies overseas were big problems for the U.S. in late 2022,” said

Bill Adams,

chief economist for Comerica Bank. “I expect real GDP growth will likely turn negative in the first half of this year.”

A buildup in inventories helped drive economic growth at the end of last year. That category is volatile, though.

Final sales to private domestic purchasers, a measure of consumer and business spending that gauges underlying demand in the economy, cooled to a 0.2% annual pace in the fourth quarter from 1.1% in the third, the Commerce Department said, a sign of economic cooling in line with the Fed’s goals.

One of the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors—housing—is stumbling amid high mortgage rates. Residential investment declined throughout last year, while existing-home sales fell almost 18% in 2022 from the previous year.

Some economists say the worst of the housing downturn is over as mortgage rates are down from their peak last fall. But few expect a return to the boom times of 2021 any time soon.

The Fed had initially hoped it could bring down inflation with only a slowing in economic growth rather than an outright contraction, an outcome dubbed a “soft landing.”

“If we continue to get strong job growth and if we continue to get consumer spending on services, and companies don’t cut back on [capital expenditures], I think that adds fuel to the soft-landing story,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust.

Consumer spending rose by 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with a year earlier, a slowdown from 7.2% growth in 2021 but close to 2019’s gain.

StoryBright Films, which provides photography and planning services for elopements in the Blue Ridge Mountains, photographed 16 couples’ elopements last year, down from 20 in 2021, said Mark Collett, the company’s co-owner.

Mr. Collett said his small business received many inquiries and engaged in conversations with a lot of potential clients last year. But more couples expressed concern about their financial situations and ability to pay for a big event than a year earlier.

“We would even get as far as sending them a contract to book, but then they got cold feet,” Mr. Collett said.

For 2022 marriages, clients tended to book at the bottom and top ends of the price range, rather than the middle, he added.

Purchasing power from paychecks fell for middle-income households last year, while it rose for lower-income and higher-income households. Many lower-income households benefited from wage increases and pandemic savings, while higher-income households had a large-enough savings buffer to spend aggressively.


Spending

on services

remained a

contributor.

Goods spending

(pct. pts.)

A shrinking trade

deficit continued

to drive growth,

but less so than in

the third quarter.

Residential

investment

was a drag

on growth.

Spending

on services

remained a

contributor.

Goods spending

(pct. pts.)

A shrinking trade

deficit continued

to drive growth,

but less so than in

the third quarter.

Residential

investment

was a drag

on growth.

Spending

on services

remained a

contributor.

Goods spending

(pct. pts.)

The trade deficit

continued to

drive growth, but

less so than in

the third quarter.

Residential

investment

was a drag

on growth.

Goods

spending

(pct. pts.)

Goods

spending

(pct. pts.)

Write to Sarah Chaney Cambon at sarah.chaney@wsj.com

Write to Sarah Chaney Cambon at sarah.chaney@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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GDP report shows U.S. economy grew in 2022

Comment

The U.S. economy grew by 2.1 percent in 2022, notching six months of solid growth despite widespread concern that the country might be on the brink of a recession.

Those fears have been assuaged — at least for now. The economy posted another consecutive quarter of steady expansion between October and December, with economic activity increasing at a 2.9 percent annual rate. Consumer spending contributed to the strong fourth-quarter showing, especially given the slumps in large parts of the economy, including housing and manufacturing.

Still, the figure was a cool-down from 3.2 percent growth in the previous quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday.

The latest figures point to a resilient but slowing economy that has been tempered by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to control inflation. The central bank raised interest rates seven times last year in hopes that higher borrowing costs would lead businesses and households to cut back enough to slow the economy and curb price increases.

While some of those rate increases have already had a chilling effect — most notably in the housing market — economists say it could be months before inflation returns to normal. Many major banks are forecasting an economic downturn this year.

What’s next for the economy? 10 charts that show where things stand.

“You may see [growth] and think the economy is out of the woods, but that would be entirely the wrong read,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America who expects a recession midyear. “There are a lot of variables that are all pointing in the same direction: There’s a housing recession. Manufacturing looks like it’s approaching recession. We’re seeing weakness in temp hiring. And it’s doubtful we’ve felt the full effects of all of the Fed’s rate hikes.”

Wall Street cheered the data as a sign of the economy’s resilience. All three major stock indexes were up midmorning, and some analysts said they were hopeful the Fed could engineer a so-called “soft landing” by bringing down inflation without triggering widespread job losses or recession.

The report was also welcome news for the Fed, but isn’t likely to change its plans. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates again next week and possibly a few more times this year.

“Momentum has already begun to slow in response to rate hikes, but the bulk of the slowdown is yet to come,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, wrote in a note to clients. “The Fed’s goal is to let growth stall out in 2023.”

Post reporters Damian Paletta and Rachel Siegel explain how economic downturns begin. (Video: Hope Davison, Drea Cornejo/The Washington Post, Photo: Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post)

The 2022 economy was, in many ways, defined by stubborn decades-high inflation. Higher prices on housing, food and gas strained family budgets and cut into corporate profits. The economy unexpectedly shrank in the first half of the year — setting off a flurry of recession fears — then returned to growth in the second half.

In the most recent quarter, continued consumer spending on services such as health care and utilities helped lift gross domestic product, which sums up goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. Consumer spending makes up more than 70 percent of GDP, making it a crucial part of the equation.

An increase in federal government spending also contributed to the gains.

But the economy was dragged down by a fast-cooling housing market, particularly a drop in construction of single-family homes, according to the report. Exports also decreased, and business spending slowed as companies grappled with higher interest rates.

The 2022 GDP figure marks a return to pre-pandemic growth rates after two years of wild fluctuations. The U.S. economy grew by a whopping 5.7 percent in 2021, after shrinking 3.4 percent the year before.

More broadly, in the decade following the Great Recession, the U.S. economy grew between 1.5 percent and 2.9 percent each year. Although 2022 growth falls squarely within that range, economists say the seesawing numbers behind that average — two quarters of contraction, followed by two quarters of expansion — mask a host of unusual and conflicting data points.

“Unlike most recessions, where the bottom essentially falls out everywhere, we’re in a period where the pain is hitting pockets of the economy at different times,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “Everything isn’t pointing in the same direction, which isn’t the norm. It’s unique to the covid era.”

In recent weeks, a number of the country’s biggest tech firms, including Microsoft, Amazon and Salesforce, have announced thousands of layoffs. Although those cuts have not yet spilled over into the broader job market, economists worry a slowing labor market could lead families to begin pulling back on purchases, which would further blunt the economy. (Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post.)

Already, there are signs that Americans are beginning to think twice about spending. Retail sales, which were robust for most of the year, began falling in November and continued their descent through the end of the year. Families are also working through their covid-era savings and beginning to rely more heavily on credit cards. Meanwhile some are putting off big-ticket purchases altogether.

Luke Cole, who builds custom wood furniture in Wilmington, N.C., says sales are down about 30 percent from a year ago, as economic jitters lead many of his clients to put off new purchases.

Although demand had doubled during the pandemic — in large part because so many people were moving into new homes — a slowing housing market has also put a damper on orders for new tables, chairs and benches.

“I’ve definitely seen a slowdown since the summer,” Cole said. “It hasn’t been a massive drop, but you can tell inflation and the looming possibility of recession are beginning to take their toll.”

Microsoft layoffs suggest broader pain to come for the economy

The housing market, which is already in free fall, could face additional turmoil if laid-off workers do not find new jobs and are forced to sell their homes, economists said. Overall residential investments fell nearly 20 percent in 2022, with new home construction notching its first yearly decline since 2009.

Home sales, meanwhile, have fallen for 11 straight months, according to the National Association of Realtors, as a result of higher borrowing costs. Average mortgage rates more than doubled last year, from 3 percent to 7 percent, making homeownership considerably more expensive for would-be buyers.

At JayMarc Homes near Seattle, sales slowed for much of last year, then came to a complete halt in the last quarter of 2022. The home builder, which typically sells 20 properties a year, did not sell a single house between October and December.

“We were one of the fastest markets in the country — people were begging us to sell them houses — and then suddenly it stopped,” said chief executive Marc Russo, who laid off 10 of his 50 employees in the fall. “No one could predict that interest rates would go up threefold in a matter of eight months.”

This year, though, he says business has improved: He has sold five homes in the past three weeks. But Russo is not rejoicing yet.

“I don’t have a crystal ball,” he said. “The macroeconomy is out of our control.”

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S&P 500 rises after strong GDP report, Nasdaq jumps nearly 1% on Tesla results

The Nasdaq Composite rose Thursday as fourth-quarter gross domestic product came in above expectations, and investors parsed through the latest batch of corporate earnings.

The tech-heavy index jumped 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 104 points, or 0.3%, higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%.

GDP data released Thursday showed the economy expand at an annualized rate of 2.9% during the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said. That’s above the 2.8% Dow Jones estimate, but represents a slight cooldown from the third-quarter reading.

“With today’s better-than-expected GDP number, I think investors are thinking, maybe we can get away with a pretty soft, mild recession that is not likely to throw us into an even deeper bear market when all is said and done,” said Sam Stovall, CFRA Research’s chief investment strategist.

Meanwhile, earnings season trudged on, with strong results from Tesla giving the Nasdaq and electric vehicle stocks a boost. Tesla jumped 9% after posting record revenue and solid earnings. Beaten-up technology giants Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet added more than 1% each.

Airline earnings also rolled out, with Southwest falling on a larger-than-expected loss fueled by its holiday meltdown. American Airlines rose on a fourth-quarter beat.

Elsewhere, Chevron added 3% after announcing a $75 billion share repurchasing program.

Wall Street is coming off a mixed session, but all the major averages are headed for weekly, and monthly, gains. The Dow and S&P are up 1.5% and 1.9% so far this week, respectively. The Nasdaq has gained 3.1% this week and is on pace for its best month since July.

Focus now shifts to next week’s Federal Reserve policy, where the central bank is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point hike as it battles high inflation. Investors will be on the lookout for clue into how much further the Fed intends to hike before it cuts rates.

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Strong U.S. economic growth expected in fourth quarter, outlook darkening

  • Fourth-quarter GDP forecast to increase at a 2.6% rate
  • Strong consumer spending seen; other sectors to contribute
  • Weekly jobless claims expected to rise moderately

WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) – The U.S. economy likely maintained a strong pace of growth in the fourth quarter as consumers boosted spending on goods, but momentum appears to have slowed considerably towards the end of the year, with higher interest rates eroding demand.

The Commerce Department’s advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product report on Thursday could mark the last quarter of solid growth before the lagged effects of the Federal Reserve’s fastest monetary policy tightening cycle since the 1980s kick in. Most economists expect a recession by the second half of the year, though mild compared to previous downturns.

Retail sales have weakened sharply over the last two months and manufacturing looks to have joined the housing market in recession. While the labor market remains strong, business sentiment continues to sour, which could eventually hurt hiring.

“This looks like it could be the last really positive, strong quarterly print we’ll see for a while,” said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Markets and most people will look through this number. More recent data are suggesting that economic momentum is continuing to slow.”

According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 2.6% annualized rate last quarter after accelerating at a 3.2% pace in the third quarter. Estimates ranged from a 1.1% rate to a 3.7% pace.

Robust second-half growth would erase the 1.1% contraction in the first six months of the year.

Growth for the full year is expected to come in at around 2.1%, down from the 5.9% logged in 2021. The Fed last year raised its policy rate by 425 basis points from near zero to a 4.25%-4.50% range, the highest since late 2007.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to have grown at a pace faster than the 2.3% rate notched in the third quarter. That would mostly reflect a surge in goods spending at the start of the quarter.

Spending has been underpinned by labor market resilience as well as excess savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic. But demand for long-lasting manufactured goods, which are mostly bought on credit, has fizzled and some households, especially lower income, have depleted their savings.

Economic growth also likely received a lift from business spending on equipment, intellectual property and nonresidential structures. But with demand for goods tanking, business spending also lost some luster as the fourth quarter ended.

Despite the clear signs of a weak handover to 2023, some economists are cautiously optimistic that the economy will skirt an outright recession, but rather suffer a rolling downturn, where sectors decline in turn rather than all at once.

ROLLING RECESSION

They argue that monetary policy now acts with a shorter lag than was previously the case because of advances in technology and the U.S. central bank’s transparency, which they said resulted in financial markets and the real economy acting in anticipation of rate hikes.

“We will continue to have positive GDP numbers,” said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. “The reason is sectors are taking turns going down, and not simultaneous declining. The rolling recession began with housing and now we are seeing the next phase which is consumption related.”

Indeed, with demand for goods slumping, factory production has declined sharply for two straight months. Job cuts in the technology industry were also seen as flagging cutbacks in capital spending by businesses.

While residential investment likely suffered its seventh straight quarterly decline, which would be the longest such streak since the collapse of the housing bubble triggered the Great Recession, there are signs the housing market could be stabilizing. Mortgage rates have been trending lower as the Fed slows the pace of its rate hikes.

Inventory accumulation was seen adding to GDP last quarter, but with demand slowing, businesses are likely to focus on reducing stock in their warehouse rather than placing new orders, which would undercut growth in the quarters ahead.

Trade, which accounted for the bulk of GDP growth in the third quarter, was seen either making a small contribution or subtracting from GDP growth. Strong growth is expected from government spending.

While the labor market thus far has shown remarkable resilience, economists argue that deteriorating business conditions will force companies to slow hiring and lay off workers.

Companies outside the technology industry as well as interest-rate sensitive sectors like housing and finance are hoarding workers after struggling to find labor during the pandemic.

A separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday is likely to show initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 205,000 for the week ended Jan. 21, from 190,000 in the prior week, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

“We expect initial jobless claims will eventually start to turn back up after their recent drop, consistent with an eventual downturn in payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate,” said Kevin Cummins, chief economist at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut. “In turn, we expect spending to slow as consumers will be less willing to run down savings in the face of a deteriorating labor market.”

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Wall Street surges, powered by tech rebound

  • Baker Hughes falls on missing Q4 profit estimates
  • Activist investor Elliott Management takes stake in Salesforce
  • Chips on track for biggest daily gain since Nov
  • Indexes up: Dow 0.98%, S&P 1.41%, Nasdaq 2.09%,

NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) – Wall Street surged on Monday, led higher by technology stocks as investors embarked on an earnings-heavy week with a renewed enthusiasm for market leading momentum stocks that were battered last year.

All three major stock indexes extended Friday’s rally, gaining momentum as the day progressed. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was out front, boosted by a 4.9% jump in semiconductor shares (.SOX).

“This is a remarkable rally in many of the names that did badly last year,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “No one wants to be watching from the sideline with a bunch a cash as the market gets away from them.”

The session marks a calm before the storm in a week jam-packed with high profile earnings reports and back-end loaded with crucial economic data.

Investors are all but certain the Federal Reserve implement a bite-sized interest rate hike next week even as the U.S. central bank remains committed to taming the hottest inflationary cycle in decades.

Financial markets have priced in a 99.8% likelihood of a 25 basis point hike to the Fed funds target rate at the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting next Wednesday, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 328.17 points, or 0.98%, to 33,703.66, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 55.93 points, or 1.41%, to 4,028.54 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 232.84 points, or 2.09%, to 11,373.28.

All 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 were higher, with tech (.SPLRCT) up the most, jumping 2.8%.

Fourth-quarter reporting season has shifted into overdrive, with 57 of the companies in the S&P 500 having posted results. Of those, 63% have delivered better than expected earnings, according to Refinitiv.

Analysts now see S&P 500 fourth quarter earnings, on aggregate, dropping 3% year-on-year, nearly twice as steep as the 1.6% annual drop seen at the beginning of the year, per Refinitiv.

This week, Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Tesla Inc , along with a spate of heavy-hitting industrials including Boeing CO (BA.N), 3M Co (MMM.N), Union Pacific Corp (UNP.N) Dow Inc (DOW.N), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC.N), are expected to post quarterly results.

Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) surged 7.8% as Chief Executive Elon Musk took the stand in his fraud trial related to a tweet saying he had backing to take the electric automaker private.

Baker Hughes Co (BKR.O) missed quarterly profit estimates due to inflation pressures and ongoing disruptions due to Russia’s war on Ukraine. The oilfield services company’s shares were off 0.9%.

Cloud-based software firm Salesforce Inc (CRM.N) jumped 3.1% following news that activist investor Elliot Management Corp has taken a multi-billion dollar stake in the company.

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT.N) joined the growing list of tech-related companies to announce impending job cuts, shedding 6% of its workforce as rising interest rates and the looming possibility of recession continue to pressure growth stocks. The music streaming company’s shares rose 2.1%.

On the economic front, the Commerce Department is expected to unveil its initial “advance” take on fourth-quarter GDP in Thursday, which analysts expect to land at 2.5%.

On Friday, the wide-ranging personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report is due to shed light on consumer spending, income growth, and crucially, inflation.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.53-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.95-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 14 new lows.

Reporting by Stephen Culp; Additional reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru
Editing by Marguerita Choy

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Fed to deliver two 25-basis-point hikes in Q1, followed by long pause

BENGALURU, Jan 20 (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve will end its tightening cycle after a 25-basis-point hike at each of its next two policy meetings and then likely hold interest rates steady for at least the rest of the year, according to most economists in a Reuters poll.

Fed officials broadly agree the U.S. central bank should slow the pace of tightening to assess the impact of the rate hikes. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 425 basis points last year, with the bulk of the tightening coming in 75- and 50-basis-point moves.

As inflation continues to decline, more than 80% of forecasters in the latest Reuters poll, 68 of 83, predicted the Fed would downshift to a 25-basis-point hike at its Jan. 31-Feb 1 meeting. If realized, that would take the policy rate – the federal funds rate – to the 4.50%-4.75% range.

The remaining 15 see a 50-basis-point hike coming in two weeks, but only one of those was from a U.S. primary dealer bank that deals directly with the Fed.

The fed funds rate was expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% in March, according to 61 of 90 economists. That matched interest rate futures pricing, but was 25 basis points lower than the median point for 2023 in the “dot plot” projections issued by Fed policymakers at the end of the Dec. 13-14 meeting.

“U.S. inflation shows price pressures are easing, yet in an environment of a strong jobs market, the Federal Reserve will be wary of calling the top in interest rates,” noted James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

The expected terminal rate would be more than double the peak of the last tightening cycle and the highest since mid-2007, just before the global financial crisis. There was no clear consensus on where the Fed’s policy rate would be at the end of 2023, but around two-thirds of respondents had a forecast for 4.75%-5.00% or higher.

The interest rate view in the survey was slightly behind the Fed’s recent projections, but the poll medians for growth, inflation and unemployment were largely in line.

Inflation was predicted to drop further, but remain above the Fed’s 2% target for years to come, leaving a relatively slim chance of rate cuts anytime soon.

In response to an additional question, more than 60% of respondents, 55 of 89, said the Fed was more likely to hold rates steady for at least the rest of the year than cut. That view lined up with the survey’s median projection for the first cut to come in early 2024.

However, a significant minority, 34, said rate cuts this year were more likely than not, with 16 citing a plunge in inflation as the biggest reason. Twelve said a deeper economic downturn and four said a sharp rise in unemployment.

“The Fed has prioritized inflation over employment, therefore only a sharp decline in core inflation can convince the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to cut rates this year,” said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

“While the peak in inflation is behind us, the underlying trend remains persistent … we do not think inflation will be close to 2% before the end of the year.”

Reuters Poll- U.S. Federal Reserve outlook

In the meantime, the Fed is more likely to help push the economy into a recession than not. The poll showed a nearly 60% probability of a U.S. recession within two years.

While that was down from the previous poll, several contributors had not assigned recession probabilities to their forecasts as a slump was now their base case, albeit a short and shallow one as predicted in several previous Reuters surveys.

The world’s biggest economy was expected to grow at a mere 0.5% this year before rebounding to 1.3% growth in 2024, still below its long-term average of around 2%.

With mass layoffs underway, especially in financial and technology companies, the unemployment rate was expected to rise to average 4.3% next year, from the current 3.5%, and then climb again to 4.8% next year.

While still historically low compared to previous recessions, the forecasts were about 1 percentage point higher than a year ago.

(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)

Reporting by Prerana Bhat; Polling by Milounee Purohit; Editing by Ross Finley and Paul Simao

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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