Tag Archives: Gazprom PJSC

Russia to Keep Nord Stream Pipeline Shut, Citing Mechanical Problems

Russia indefinitely suspended natural gas flows to Europe via a key pipeline hours after the Group of Seven agreed to an oil price cap for Russian crude—two opposing blows exchanged between Moscow and the West in an economic war running parallel to the military conflict in Ukraine.

Kremlin-controlled energy company Gazprom PJSC said late Friday it would suspend supplies of gas to Germany via the Nord Stream natural-gas pipeline until further notice, raising the pressure on Europe as governments race to avoid energy shortages this winter.

Gazprom said it had found a technical fault during maintenance of the pipeline, which connects Russia with Germany under the Baltic Sea. The company said the pipeline will remain shut down until the issue is fixed, without giving any timeline.

The pipeline was due to resume work early Saturday after three-day maintenance. Before the maintenance, the pipeline was operating at 20% of its capacity.

Russia first began throttling supplies via Nord Stream in June, saying that needed maintenance was being prevented by Western sanctions imposed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The notion was dismissed by European officials as an excuse for Russian President

Vladimir Putin’s

regime to use its gas exports to punish Europe for its support of Ukraine.

Western leaders are preparing for the possibility that Russian natural gas flows through the key Nord Stream pipeline may never return to full levels. WSJ’s Shelby Holliday explains what an energy crisis could look like in Europe, and how it might ripple through the world. Illustration: David Fang

A complete shutdown of Nord Stream will compel European governments to accelerate their push to become independent of Russian gas ahead of the winter months and could force them to ration energy—a move that would hurt industrial companies and tip the continent’s already fragile economy into a recession.

“By further reducing gas deliveries, Russia is tightening the screws on the EU,” said Janis Kluge, an expert on Russia at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “Europe will now have to take its efforts up a notch to conserve more gas.”

At the same time, the move deprives Moscow of its most potent economic leverage on the continent and could remove any remaining misgivings in European capitals about raising sanctions on Moscow for fear of retribution.

“Until it is repaired, gas transport via Nord Stream is completely stopped,” Gazprom said Friday.

Moscow and the West have been engaged in an economic war since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. Western democracies have inflicted economic and financial sanctions on Russia, and Moscow has tried to choke unfriendly countries’ access to its natural gas, which Europe uses for heating and electricity production.

ArcelorMittal SA,

one of the world’s largest steelmakers, was the latest industrial giant to say it is reducing European production capacity amid the energy crisis. The company said Friday it will close two of its plants in Germany amid soaring electricity costs.

Steelmaking is particularly energy intensive, alongside other industries like fertilizer and chemical production and glass making.

G-7 countries said on Friday they would impose a cap on the price of Russian oil. The mechanism would force buyers seeking to insure their shipment via insurers located in a G-7 or European Union country to observe the price limit on their purchases. The cap, whose level will be set at a future meeting, originated in a U.S. initiative and has been under discussion for months.

Russia has said countries imposing a cap wouldn’t receive any Russian oil. Sales of oil make up a far bigger share of Russian state revenues than sales of natural gas.

Inspectors from the United Nations’ nuclear agency visited the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear-power plant, despite shelling near the facility for which Ukraine and Russia exchanged blame. On Friday, Ukraine accused Russia of hindering access to the plant. Photo: Yuri Kochetkov/Shutterstock

Hours before Gazprom’s Nord Stream announcement, German Finance Minister

Christian Lindner

praised the G-7 decision, saying “Russia is generating big profits from the export of commodities such as oil, which is something we must push back on vigorously.”

The cap, he added, would help combat inflation in the EU.

Russia would have enough capacity via other gas pipelines to Europe to compensate for the Nord Stream shortfall. However, flows via these other routes declined following the start of the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine halted one gas-transit route in May, blaming interference by Russian forces. Deliveries through another, called Yamal, which traditionally transported gas from Russia to Europe, have stopped this year due to sanctions imposed by Russia on the Polish part-owner.

Germany’s economy minister,

Robert Habeck,

said this week that the country can’t count on Nord Stream during the winter.

In reaction to the Nord Stream closure, a spokeswoman for the ministry said on Friday that Germany was far better prepared than a few months ago.

“We have already seen Russia’s unreliability in the past few weeks, and accordingly we have unwaveringly and consistently pursued our measures to strengthen our independence from Russian energy imports,” the spokeswoman said.

Klaus Müller, head of Germany’s energy regulator, said the country would need to boost gas imports from other suppliers, continue to fill up gas stores and cut gas consumption.

European officials had expected that the Kremlin would use gas flows to keep markets and governments on edge and erode support for Ukraine among Western voters.

Gazprom’s shutting down of Nord Stream “under fallacious pretenses is another confirmation of its unreliability as a supplier,” European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer wrote on Twitter.

A senior manager of a German gas company formerly controlled by Gazprom said Friday that he expects local importers of gas channeled via Nord Stream to stop paying for their contractual obligations with Gazprom.

Natural-gas prices have broken records in recent weeks amid the energy crunch, though they have also dropped sharply in the past days, with some analysts crediting the speed at which Europeans have been filling up their gas storage facilities through the summer.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that the Nord Stream outage would cause prices to surge again. The Gazprom decision “will reignite market uncertainty regarding the region’s ability to manage storage through winter, driving a significant rally,” the bank said in a note to clients.

Gazprom began throttling gas flows in June, citing technical problems with the turbines. The company insists that a key turbine couldn’t be sent to Russia after it was maintained in Canada because of international sanctions on Moscow. But Germany, where the turbine was located, said that there are no obstacles, and that Moscow was in fact blocking the turbine’s return to Russia.

On Friday, Gazprom said that it found an oil leak in a turbine at the compressor station of the pipeline. Gazprom said that similar issues had been found with other turbines this summer that have led to the reduction of the gas flows.

Gazprom said it had notified German company

Siemens Energy AG

, which maintains the turbines, of the new leak. Gazprom said that the necessary repairs could only be done in a specialized repair facility. Previously, some turbines for the pipeline had been repaired by Siemens Energy in Canada.

Siemens Energy said that Gazprom’s announcement wasn’t a technical reason for stopping operation. “Such leakages do not usually affect the operation of a turbine and can be sealed on site. It is a routine procedure during maintenance work,” the company said. It said it wasn’t currently contracted for maintenance work but is ready to assist.

Europe has been preparing for a possible Russian gas cutoff, with EU gas- storage facilities filling up faster than expected this summer, to over 80%.

Still, if Nord Stream remains shut, Europe’s gas stores would end the winter at 26% of their capacity, which would complicate Europe’s situation next winter, Massimo Di Odoardo, vice president for gas and liquefied natural gas research at energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, wrote this week.

Germany, which received more than half of its gas from Russia before the war in Ukraine, has been racing to diversify its supply of gas and to install floating liquefied natural gas terminals to ship in gas from the U.S. and elsewhere. In recent months, Germany’s gas imports from Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands have far outweighed the reduced Russian flows.

The country is close to hitting its 85% gas storage target, initially set for Oct. 1. German officials, however, have warned that reaching the next milestone of 95% by Nov. 1 would be challenging unless companies and households cut consumption.

The 760-mile-long Nord Stream pipeline first opened in 2011. Russia and a consortium of European energy companies built a second pipeline, Nord Stream 2, running alongside the original one, that would have doubled capacity. But the German government froze the project in February over the war in Ukraine.

Write to Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com and Andrew Duehren at andrew.duehren@wsj.com

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Vladimir Putin Says Russia Will Honor Gas Commitments, but Warns of New Nord Stream Curbs

Russian President

Vladimir Putin

said Russia would fulfill its commitments to supply natural gas to Europe but warned that flows via the Nord Stream pipeline could be curbed soon if sanctions prevent additional maintenance on its components.

Nord Stream, the main artery for Russian gas to Europe, is currently down due to regular maintenance and European governments are worried the Kremlin won’t restore its flow when the work ends Thursday. A prolonged outage could prompt governments to ration energy, hurting industry and hitting already fragile economic growth.

In comments late Tuesday after his visit to Tehran, Mr. Putin said that Kremlin-controlled energy exporter Gazprom PJSC, pipeline operator’s majority shareholder, “has always fulfilled and will fulfill all of its obligations.”

But the Russian president added that flows might fall to some 20% of capacity as soon as next week if a pipeline turbine that was undergoing repairs in Canada isn’t returned to Russia soon. Mr. Putin said that another turbine had to go for maintenance on July 26.

Even before the maintenance began, Gazprom last month cut deliveries on the pipeline to 40% of its capacity, blaming Canadian sanctions that had prevented the return of the turbine being repaired there. European officials have dismissed the turbine explanation as a pretext for Moscow to try and wreak economic havoc on the continent.

Germany has been racing to return the turbine to Russia after Canada earlier this month tweaked its own sanctions, allowing turbines for the Nord Stream pipeline to be repaired and returned to Russia.

The European Union is pressing governments to step up their energy-conservation campaigns, rolling out new plans for possible rationing on Wednesday. The commission’s plan is expected to offer guidelines for curbing energy use and establish criteria governments can use to determine which industries to give priority to if there isn’t enough gas to go around. The guidelines also call for public buildings to limit air conditioning to 77 degrees Fahrenheit and cap thermostats at about 66 degrees during colder months.

Gazprom has invoked force majeure for its failure to deliver contractually agreed natural-gas shipments in recent weeks, according to European energy companies. It isn’t clear whether the notice—a legal declaration that exempts the company from fulfilling contractual obligations because of circumstances outside its control—covers a potential decision by Russia not to resume Nord Stream flows after the maintenance.

While some European officials have in recent days cast doubt on whether Nord Stream would come back online on Thursday, Mr. Putin’s comments helped fuel expectations the pipeline would restart. Separately, flows of gas through the pipeline spiked several times on Tuesday, which analysts say could be pressure tests ahead of the end of the maintenance.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said they expected the pipeline to come back online Thursday at its pre-maintenance capacity of 40%.

A full stop “would remove flexibility from Russia’s supply decisions, once you’re at zero, there’s only one place to go: up,” the bank wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday, adding that such a scenario would also deprive Russia of gas revenues.

But Mr. Putin’s new warning that the flows could be curbed to 20% next week shows that Moscow will continue to use gas to squeeze Europe, even if it doesn’t completely cut it off, analysts say.

“It’s absolutely clear that Moscow is cutting supplies for geopolitical reasons—it wants to create a European gas crisis this winter to bring Europe to its knees to the point where it cuts support to Ukraine and forces Kyiv to concede to Moscow’s demands,” said Timothy Ash, senior strategist for BlueBay Asset Management LLP in London.

Mr. Putin also warned the West that its plan to cap the prices of Russian oil would rock global markets and push prices up.

“Now we are hearing all sorts of crazy ideas about limiting the volume of Russian oil and capping the Russian oil price,” Mr. Putin said. “Oil prices will skyrocket,” he added.

Write to Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com

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Why Russian Invasion Peril Is Driving Oil Prices Near $100

The threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is shaking up a fragile global oil market, pushing prices closer to $100 a barrel as traders calculate that supplies will struggle to cushion the effect from any significant disruption in Russian fossil fuel exports.

Demand for oil has outpaced production growth as economies slowly rebound from the worst of the pandemic, leaving the market with a small buffer to mitigate an oil-supply shock. Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, and if a conflict in Ukraine leads to a substantial decrease in the flow of Russian barrels to market, it would be perilous for the tight balance between supply and demand.

Those dynamics have led traders in recent days to price in a sizable geopolitical risk premium, according to analysts. Crude oil prices, which haven’t topped $100 a barrel since 2014, jumped to an eight-year high on Ukraine concerns Friday.

Prices fell slightly in early trading Monday, with Brent crude, the global benchmark in energy markets, down 0.3% at $94.07 a barrel but still near its highest level since 2014.

“We are setting up for a period of turbulence,” said Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia University’s Center for Global Energy Policy. “The threat is more pronounced when energy markets are tight.”

Concerns about a potential Russian invasion are adding to what has been a volatile stretch for stocks amid concerns about higher inflation and rising bond yields. Russia also is a sizable exporter of other commodities, including wheat, which could impact prices in the event of military conflict, analysts and consultants say.

A sharp rise in prices for natural gas and oil could have ripple effects on the prices of gasoline.



Photo:

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

For now, analysts say a major disruption appears unlikely, as the Biden administration hasn’t signaled that retaliatory measures will include sanctions against Russia’s energy industry. Russia, in turn, relies heavily on revenue from its fossil-fuel exports, making it unlikely to shut the spigot in its own act of retaliation, say analysts.

But the White House has said no punishment is off the table, and war can lead to unpredictable outcomes. The U.S. warned Friday that a Russian military invasion could happen at any moment, with tens of thousands of casualties. Russia, which has massed some 130,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders, denies it intends to invade its neighbor.

The stakes for the rest of the world are high. A sharp rise in prices for natural gas and oil could have ripple effects on the prices of gasoline and many consumer goods, potentially driving inflation higher.

In a press conference, President Biden said the U.S. would stop Nord Stream 2 – a pipeline to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany – if Moscow invades Ukraine. The German chancellor expressed support but didn’t explicitly say the project would be halted. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Russia plays an outsize role in global commodity markets. It exports about 5 million barrels a day of crude, roughly 12% of global trade, and around 2.5 million barrels a day of petroleum products, about 10% of global trade, according to investment bank Cowen. About 60% of Russia’s oil exports go to Europe, and another 30% go to China.

The tension over Ukraine comes as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, pledged to carefully put more barrels back on the market as demand rebounds, but has fallen short of its oil-production targets.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only OPEC+ producers that appear to have significant spare production capacity.



Photo:

Amr Nabil/Associated Press

The group last year agreed to lift output by 400,000 barrels a day each month. But so far it is more than 1 million barrels a day shy of its target, said

Andy Lipow,

an oil analyst and president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

“The market now questions the ability of OPEC+ to restore production to the pre-pandemic levels,” Mr. Lipow said.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only two OPEC+ producers that appear to have significant amounts of spare production capacity, Mr. Lipow added.

IHS Markit

expects global oil demand to grow by between 3.8 million barrels and 4 million barrels a day from January to December, with another leg of strong growth expected after the Omicron variant of coronavirus subsides.

Meanwhile, though American frackers are dispatching more drilling rigs in response to high prices, any substantial increase in their oil production is still months away. Shale companies have pledged to limit production growth and return more cash to shareholders, potentially limiting their ability to fill any supply gap. Energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie last week projected oil production from the contiguous U.S. would increase by 240,000 barrels a day by the end of 2022.

For now, the most likely energy disruption would be to Russia’s exports of natural gas, say analysts. Russia exports around 23 billion cubic feet of gas a day, about 25% of global trade, and 85% of that gas goes to Europe, according to Cowen. In particular, Russia’s flow of natural gas to Europe through a pipeline network in Ukraine could be disrupted during a conflict. The network transports about 4 billion cubic feet a day at full capacity to Europe but is currently flowing at about 50%, according to Cowen.

Russian natural gas flows to Europe have been running lower than usual in recent months. If Russia further reduces natural gas flows to Europe or U.S. sanctions limit them, European companies would struggle to replace the supplies. European gas prices have recently reached records and, as a result, the market already is directing much of the spare supply of liquefied natural gas to Europe. Most operational LNG facilities in the world’s largest exporters—the U.S., Qatar and Australia—are running at full capacity, and there is little new supply to add.

Russia would pay a heavy price if its sale of fossil-fuel exports is reduced. Approximately half of Russia’s federal budget is tied to oil and gas, according to investment bank Raymond James. President Biden said the Russian-built Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline to Germany would be suspended if Russia invades Ukraine, which alone would result in an $11 billion write-down for state-owned energy company

Gazprom,

the bank said.

A reduction of natural gas also could have ripple effects in oil markets as stiff competition and higher prices for gas could force some power plants and others that run on gas to use oil instead, ultimately leading to higher oil prices, say analysts.

Even if the U.S. doesn’t target Russia’s energy industry, other sanctions could still have knock-on effects on commodity markets. Sanctions on financial institutions, for example, may make funding energy operations more difficult, said

Matthew Reed,

an analyst at Washington-based consulting firm Foreign Reports.

Mr. Reed said some are concerned that a second round of sanctions, if the first fails to deter Russia, would directly target energy supplies.

“The real risk here isn’t necessarily the first round of sanctions,” Mr. Reed said. “It’s the second round that comes after, if everyone realizes the first was a waste of time.”

Write to Christopher M. Matthews at christopher.matthews@wsj.com and Collin Eaton at collin.eaton@wsj.com

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