Tag Archives: Games Software

Microsoft Prepares to Go to Battle With FTC Over Activision Deal

Microsoft Corp.

MSFT -1.73%

has signaled it plans to challenge the Federal Trade Commission’s lawsuit to block its $75 billion deal for

Activision

ATVI -0.38%

Blizzard Inc., and is expected to argue that it is an underdog in videogame developing.

The personal-computing company has been publicizing its position for months, saying the acquisition wouldn’t threaten competition in the industry because Microsoft trails rivals in videogame consoles and has a limited presence in mobile-game development. The company has also said it expects the industry to get more competitive in the future with the rise of cloud gaming.

Legal experts say Microsoft will likely build its case around those talking points as well as the fact that it is pursuing what is called a vertical merger, meaning it is buying a company in its supply chain as opposed to a direct competitor.

The deal “is fundamentally good for gamers, good for consumers, good for game developers and good for competition,” said

Brad Smith,

Microsoft’s president and vice chair, at the company’s annual shareholders meeting Tuesday. “We will have to present this case to a judge in a court because this is a case in which I have great confidence.”

Microsoft has until Thursday to respond to the FTC’s suit, which was filed Dec. 8 in the agency’s administrative court.

In its complaint, the FTC alleged the deal is illegal because it would give Microsoft the ability to control how consumers access Activision’s games beyond the Redmond, Wash., company’s own Xbox consoles and subscription services. The company could raise prices or degrade Activision’s content for people who don’t use its hardware to access the developer’s games, or even cut off access to the games entirely, the FTC said.

“If you can control an important source of content like Activision Blizzard, you have a variety of tools to leverage at your disposal,” which could stifle competition, an agency official said earlier this month.

At the shareholder meeting, Mr. Smith challenged the FTC’s concerns that Microsoft’s chief rival, PlayStation maker

Sony Group Corp.

, would be harmed by the deal, saying Sony has too big a lead in the high-performance console space to warrant protection.

Microsoft Gaming CEO Phil Spencer discusses growth in cloud gaming, gaming subscriptions and the planned acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

He further argued that the FTC’s case largely hinges on a worry that Microsoft could one day make games from Activision’s “Call of Duty”—which has been a hit among PlayStation users—exclusive to its Xbox system. Mr. Smith said Sony has about four times as many exclusive games on its consoles today as Microsoft has on its gaming machines.

Sony didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Microsoft said it made a last-minute offer to keep “Call of Duty” games accessible to others through a legally binding consent decree, augmenting an offer that the company had made months earlier to keep it accessible for at least 10 years.

A hearing would take place in the FTC’s administrative court in August, unless a resolution is reached before then. After the case is heard, legal experts say it could take months before a decision is handed down, and the losing side can then appeal it with the full commission. If an appeal is filed, the commission reviews the entire record anew and hears oral arguments, before deciding to uphold or overturn the administrative law judge’s order. At that point, if Microsoft loses, the company can appeal the commission’s decision to a federal appeals court.

“This is no way a slam-dunk case for the FTC,” said

Eric Talley,

a professor at Columbia Law School. “Even if the odds are a little bit long, they’re showing they’re willing to kick the tires to budge legal precedent a little bit more in their favor.”

Microsoft recently made a last-minute move to augment its offer to keep Activision’s ‘Call of Duty’ games accessible to others.



Photo:

Martin Meissner/Associated Press

Some analysts said Microsoft might want to drop the acquisition, which the company values at $68.7 billion after adjusting for Activision’s net cash, to avoid executive distraction and expensive regulatory concessions. Microsoft has said it is committed to addressing regulators’ concerns.

While the litigation is continuing, Microsoft could offer the FTC additional commitments or implement them itself, said

Benjamin Sirota,

an antitrust attorney with the law firm Kobre & Kim LLP in New York. But to be satisfied, the government would have to enforce those commitments, which “takes resources and circumstances often change,” he said. The agency might also consider how “commitments that solve a competition problem now might not work in the future,” he added.

The FTC faces hurdles in its case because of the deal’s vertical-merger status, according to

David Hoppe,

mergers and acquisitions, tech and media attorney with Gamma Law in San Francisco.

“With these cases, it’s hard to prove consumer harm,” he said. “It’s not two competitors combining, in which case the harm to consumers is typically self-evident.”

The FTC has been clear about its intention to expand the scope of harm beyond a merger’s likely impact on consumer prices, Mr. Hoppe said. The agency might be concerned about actions that could indirectly put consumers at risk, he said, such as the misuse of sensitive competitor information by the combined enterprise. That information could give Microsoft a way to keep newcomers in videogame distribution from succeeding, which could result in fewer options for consumers, he said.

“It’s all about the network effect,” Mr. Hoppe said.

Write to Sarah E. Needleman at Sarah.Needleman@wsj.com

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FTC’s Tussle With Microsoft Puts Spotlight on Cloud Gaming

Cloud gaming is an emerging technology that allows people to stream videogames to nearly any internet-connected device, similar to how movies and shows are viewed on

Netflix,

Hulu and other streaming platforms.

The business model being developed alongside cloud gaming is a subscription service, where consumers get to play a catalog of games for a flat monthly or annual fee. With cloud gaming, players can avoid downloading games to their devices, which takes up memory, and they don’t need to invest in hardware such as a console or high-end computer. 

The FTC and videogame industry participants anticipate cloud gaming will become a much larger part of the market in years to come. With its lawsuit, the FTC says it is protecting the videogame-distribution market—as it is today and how it is expected to evolve—from being dominated by a few companies.

Microsoft is an early leader in cloud gaming with its Xbox Game Pass subscription service. The company’s $75 billion deal for Activision would bolster its content library, adding several blockbuster franchises including “Call of Duty,” “World of Warcraft” and “Candy Crush Saga.”

Microsoft, which has pledged to fight the FTC’s suit, has said it is an underdog in the existing console market, with Xbox’s position trailing

Sony Group Corp.’s

PlayStation and

Nintendo Co.

’s Switch. The company doesn’t disclose Xbox sales by volume.

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The technology giant has also said that it has no meaningful presence in mobile, the biggest corner of the overall videogame industry by revenue.

Apple Inc.

and

Alphabet Inc.’s

Google, makers of the predominant smartphone operating systems, play a critical role in how people access mobile games, and they take a cut of developers’ in-app and subscription sales.

Xbox Game Pass, which Microsoft launched in 2017, offers a library of hundreds of games for subscribers to play starting at $9.99 a month. The basic plan allows subscribers to download individual games on their Xbox or PC to play whenever they want. For $14.99 a month, subscribers can play some of those games via the cloud, all part of Microsoft’s ambitions to build a “Netflix of gaming.” The company in January said Game Pass had 25 million subscribers.

Global consumer spending on cloud-gaming services and games streamed via the cloud will reach a combined $2.4 billion by the end of this year, according to an estimate from Newzoo BV. That is a tiny fraction—1.4%—of the $184.4 billion in overall spending on videogame software.

Sony, which has aggressively lobbied governments around the world to oppose the Microsoft-Activision tie-up, and others have attempted to grow their own cloud-gaming subscription services. Microsoft, for now, is the dominant player, accounting for 60% of the overall cloud-gaming business last year, according to an estimate from research firm Omdia.

Microsoft is an early leader in cloud gaming with its Xbox Game Pass subscription service.



Photo:

etienne laurent/Shutterstock

The FTC appears concerned that it “can’t see the unintended consequences even just a few years down the road for an acquisition like this,” said

Paul Swanson,

a Denver-based antitrust lawyer at Holland & Hart LLP. “What they’re saying here is we’re going to err on the side of preserving as many independent competitors as we can.”

Over the past decade, Microsoft has poured billions into its cloud operations primarily for selling software and infrastructure for enterprise customers. It is now building out a separate cloud infrastructure to power its videogaming ambitions, which have been under development since it launched its first Xbox console in 2001.

Cloud gaming hasn’t been an easy business to navigate. The technology is difficult for companies to execute smoothly because games need to support multiple players with minimal delay regardless of where players are located. Earlier this year, Google shut down its game-streaming service, Stadia, after struggling to gain traction with users.

Microsoft remains heavily invested in its Xbox hardware, but cloud gaming gives it an opportunity to reach more gamers. It wants to build its own mobile app store, a move it says would create more competition in mobile videogames, not less. The Redmond, Wash., company has argued that Apple and Google’s app marketplaces have policies that pose technical and financial barriers to its goals.

Representatives for Apple and Google didn’t respond to requests for comment. Apple has said that it doesn’t prevent cloud-gaming apps from appearing in the App Store and that it isn’t trying to block their emergence. 

Industry researcher and academic

Joost van Dreunen

said Microsoft’s mobile move would likely benefit the videogame ecosystem by diminishing Apple and Google’s grip.

Microsoft has said it is an underdog in the console market, with Xbox trailing consoles such as Nintendo’s Switch.



Photo:

Guillaume Payen/Zuma Press

“It breaks down the so-called walled-garden strategy that has dominated the game industry for 20 years,” he said.

Since Microsoft announced its deal for Activision, which it values at nearly $69 billion after adjusting for the developers’ net cash, some videogame players have been concerned about what it means for industry competition. 

Steve Schweitzer of State College, Pa., is worried that Microsoft will raise the price of Game Pass over time. He said that it is affordable now but that in a few years, if Microsoft becomes more dominant, it could bump up the price and start cutting back on quality. Mr. Schweitzer, 55 years old, said he remembers back in the 1990s when Microsoft was able to use its market power to capture market share in the browser wars. “I’ve seen this game before,” he said.

Before its lawsuit, the FTC had been reviewing the deal for months. Regulators in other jurisdictions, including the European Union and the United Kingdom, are doing the same. The company has gained approval for the deal in smaller markets such as Brazil and Saudi Arabia.

Write to Sarah E. Needleman at sarah.needleman@wsj.com and Aaron Tilley at aaron.tilley@wsj.com

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FTC’s Move to Block Microsoft’s Deal for Activision Blizzard Came Despite Charm Offensive

Microsoft Corp.

MSFT -0.80%

had been working for close to a year to calm regulators’ concerns about its acquisition of videogame developer

Activision Blizzard Inc.,

ATVI 0.54%

but the Federal Trade Commission’s suit to block the deal raised doubts about the company’s pledge not to shut out rivals. 

The FTC this week took one of its biggest swings ever against a big technology company and sued to stop the planned $75 billion acquisition, setting the stage for a court challenge over a deal the antitrust agency said would harm competition.

The commission’s complaint said the deal is illegal because it would give Microsoft the ability to control how consumers beyond users of its own Xbox consoles and subscription services access Activision’s games. Microsoft has repeatedly said it wouldn’t engage in such actions. The FTC’s complaint accused Microsoft of reneging on a similar pledge to a European regulator in the past, a criticism the company disputes.

Earlier this week, as the possibility of a lawsuit grew, Microsoft touted the deal’s benefits to gamers through an op-ed article in The Wall Street Journal and announced an agreement to give a competitor access to one of Activision’s most popular games. The FTC filed its lawsuit on Thursday.

“The Proposed Acquisition, if consummated, may lessen competition substantially or tend to create a monopoly,” the FTC said in its complaint against Microsoft.

Executives at the Redmond, Wash., company have said it would take a long time to get all the approvals needed from regulators around the world, and it had given itself close to 18 months for the process. The deal could now miss Microsoft’s mid-2023 deadline, and some analysts said Microsoft might want to drop the acquisition.

Microsoft should “take the hint and give up the deal that, if completed, might end up a Pyrrhic victory of executive distraction and expensive regulatory concessions,” John Freeman, vice president at investment-research firm CFRA Research, wrote in a note to investors.

Competitors had expressed concerns the deal would block them from access to Activision games such as the popular ‘Call of Duty’ franchise.



Photo:

Allison Dinner/Associated Press

At stake is Microsoft’s big ambitions for its videogaming business, which had revenue of $16 billion in the company’s last fiscal year. That total represents less than 10% of Microsoft’s overall revenue. The business is a crucial part of Microsoft’s plans to diversify to attract more noncorporate customers.

The FTC’s move came after the company had avoided the brunt of the anti-tech backlash of recent years.

The suit represents a “somewhat meaningful setback” for Microsoft because of the company’s longtime lobbying efforts, said Stifel Nicolaus analyst Brad Reback. “They’ve worked very hard to stay on the right side of government agencies.”

Microsoft’s representative in Washington—its vice chairman and president,

Brad Smith

—has been building relationships in the capital for decades. He had helped cultivate an image of the software giant as one of the friendly technology leaders, an enviable position in a regulatory environment that has been increasingly hostile toward tech titans.

One of the longest-serving leaders inside Microsoft, Mr. Smith joined the company in 1993 and was a legal adviser through its bitter antitrust disputes with regulators worldwide in the 1990s.

“We have been committed since Day One to addressing competition concerns, including by offering earlier this week proposed concessions to the FTC,” Mr. Smith said after the lawsuit was filed. “While we believed in giving peace a chance, we have complete confidence in our case and welcome the opportunity to present our case in court.”

In its complaint, the FTC accused Microsoft of previously suppressing competition from rivals through its 2021 acquisition of ZeniMax Media Inc., parent of “Doom” developer Bethesda Softworks, despite giving assurances to European antitrust authorities that it would do otherwise. Microsoft said the FTC’s ZeniMax allegation is misinformed.

Brad Smith, Microsoft’s vice chairman and president, has been building relationships in Washington for decades.



Photo:

Zed Jameson/Bloomberg News

Microsoft officials have expressed confidence in closing the Activision deal, which it has valued at $68.7 billion after adjusting for Activision’s net cash. Lawmakers and industry representatives have said it would be hard for any of the biggest U.S. tech companies—including

Apple Inc.,

Amazon.com Inc.,

Google parent

Alphabet Inc.

or

Facebook

owner Meta Platforms Inc.—to win approval for a large acquisition in the current political environment.

In recent years, as government scrutiny and competition between the biggest tech companies have been increasing, Microsoft has tried to appease regulators.

For example, in May, Microsoft announced a set of principles it would abide by when dealing with cloud-service providers in Europe, hoping to assuage concerns its cloud business was hurting European cloud companies. The principles included pledges to work with European cloud providers and support the success of software vendors running on Microsoft’s cloud.

Amid concern the deal could hurt attempts to unionize at Activision or elsewhere in the gaming industry, Microsoft in June said it was open to working with any labor unions that want to organize.

As PlayStation maker

Sony Group Corp.

and others said they were concerned the acquisition could leave competitors locked out of Activision’s popular “Call of Duty” franchise, Microsoft this week said it would make it available for the first time on Nintendo Co.’s Switch gaming consoles for at least 10 years.

Microsoft this week also made its case to the public. “Blocking our acquisition would make the gaming industry less competitive and gamers worse off,” Mr. Smith, wrote in the Monday op-ed article in the Journal. “Think about how much better it is to stream a movie from your couch than drive to Blockbuster. We want to bring the same sort of innovation to the videogame industry.”

It is too soon to tell whether the FTC can succeed in blocking the acquisition. The agency likely will have to go before a federal judge, a process that could take months to unfold, said Eric Talley, a professor at Columbia Law School.

The case could be difficult for the regulator to win because courts have traditionally not seen deals among companies that specialize in different phases of the same industry’s production process—so-called vertical mergers—as competitive dangers, he said.

“It may require the commission to convince a judge to change the law somewhat,” he said. “That makes it a difficult case for the FTC to win, though they presumably knew this going in.”

Write to Sarah E. Needleman at Sarah.Needleman@wsj.com

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Games That Push the Brain to the Limit Get Scientists’ Attention in Fight Against Dementia

You may be able to prevent or delay dementia with changes in diet and exercise, research has found. Now another possible tool for avoiding dementia is getting researchers’ attention: specially designed videogames.

Companies are marketing a crop of digital games that promise a workout for the brain, with a battery of speed, attention and memory exercises. Researchers are working on them, too. Scientists are studying whether such “brain training” games can help stave off or delay age-related deterioration in the brain.

These games aren’t what people typically think of as videogames or puzzles. In some, players must differentiate and recall sounds, patterns and objects, making snap decisions that grow harder as the games progress. One game gives users a split second to locate two matching butterflies in a swarm before the image disappears. 

Many scientists say it’s too early to tell whether the games really can prevent dementia, and question whether they can lead to long-term improvements in memory and daily functioning. But some scientists think the games are promising enough that they’re pouring millions of dollars into studying them. 

Neuroscientists have long recommended traditional games, such as bridge, Sudoku and crossword puzzles, to keep the brain sharp. Crosswords don’t help people process information speedily, though, a skill whose age-related deterioration can progress to dementia.

The newer games, such as one called Double Decision developed by scientists, try to stimulate and speed up neural activity and slow deterioration in brain physiology that occurs with age. 

In a healthy brain, myelin, a layer of insulation, keeps nerve fibers taut and densely bundled, says

Chandramallika Basak,

an associate professor at the University of Texas at Dallas. Our myelin frays and unravels with age, interfering with memory and clear thinking, she says.

In recent imaging studies, her team and scientists from the University of Iowa observed that people who played brain training games maintained or increased myelin in some parts of the brain compared with control groups that played other types of games that didn’t require speed or increasing levels of difficulty.  

Interest in studying brain-training games has grown since a 2020 report published in the journal Lancet said that as many as 40% of dementia cases could theoretically be prevented or delayed with lifestyle changes, such as adjusting diet and exercise and managing hypertension. 

Dementia is marked by age-related losses in memory, attention and thinking speed that are severe enough to interfere with daily living. Alzheimer’s, a neurodegenerative disease, is the most common type of dementia. Women who are 45 years old have a 20% lifetime chance of developing Alzheimer’s, according to the Alzheimer’s Association. Men the same age have a 10% chance. 

Cognitive training, which includes anything from computerized exercises to puzzles and bridge, has been identified by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine as a promising area of dementia-intervention research. There’s no recommended age to start playing these games. You can find games online or at libraries, community colleges or local chapters of the Alzheimer’s Association.

Brain-training games haven’t been proven to prevent dementia, says the National Institute on Aging, part of the National Institutes of Health. Studies so far have yielded mixed results on the games’ effectiveness; doubts remain over their ability to produce long-term practical improvements. 

Still, the research to date has been encouraging enough—and dementia so prevalent—that scientists are studying the games further. The World Health Organization in 2019 recommended cognitive training for older adults as a way to reduce the risk of dementia even though the science behind it isn’t definitive.

The National Institute on Aging is funding 21 clinical trials to try to learn what types of games might improve factors such as memory and attention and reduce the long-term risk of developing dementia. A series of studies of nearly 3,000 people funded in part by the NIA suggested that the benefits of a course of exercises requiring speedy observations and snap decisions appeared to help older people 10 years later and lower their dementia risk by 29%.

The training in the study consisted of 10 initial 60- to 75-minute sessions where people played speed-and-recall games, and eight booster sessions later. The study wasn’t designed at the outset to assess dementia risk, according to

Dana Plude,

a deputy director at the National Institute on Aging. But the results are a key reason for his interest in cognitive training, and the NIA is currently funding a $7 million clinical trial to further test the results.

Brain training games can be fun but frustrating, regardless of your age and mental stamina. Apps generally charge a monthly or annual fee; some offer a training routine that may be personalized.

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What “brain exercises” do you do to keep sharp? Join the conversation below.

CogniFit, one such app, offers online cognitive assessments and brain training for $19.99 a month for its basic 20-game plan and $29.99 for its 60-game premium plan. It suggests users spend 10 to 15 minutes three times a week on nonconsecutive days to increase their cognitive scores.

Double Decision is sold by Posit Science, whose games are offered commercially and have been used in studies funded by the U.S. Defense Department, the NIA and others. 

The goal of Double Decision is to progressively increase the amount of visual information a brain can take in and the speed at which it processes the information—capabilities that typically decline with age. Repeated gameplay trains the brain to think and react more quickly,  focus better and remember more, says

Michael Merzenich,

chief science officer of Posit Science. 

In the exercise, two different cars appear in the middle of a screen with a Route 66 sign floating in the periphery. One of the cars plus the road sign flash onto the screen and then disappear. A player must recall which car they just saw and the location of the road sign. The game speeds up and adds distractions like a herd of cows or dozens of road signs. 

“Brain health is manageable,” says Dr. Merzenich. “We should treat brain health as seriously as our physical health.”

Double Decision is designed to improve attention, memory and processing speed by forcing the brain into split-second observations and decisions. Content hosted by BrainHQ

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Microsoft’s Activision Blizzard Deal to Power Its Netflix-of-Gaming Aspirations

Microsoft Corp.’s

MSFT 1.96%

acquisition of

Activision Blizzard Inc.

ATVI -0.27%

aims to shake up the game industry by expanding the software giant’s library of blockbuster videogames and bolstering its efforts to entice consumers to its cloud-gaming service.

The planned $75 billion deal would be Microsoft’s biggest ever and its most ambitious investment yet in its plan to turn its Game Pass subscription service into the

Netflix

of gaming. Once the acquisition closes, Microsoft said it would be the world’s third-largest game company by sales, with 30 game studios under its belt, including the developers of popular franchises Call of Duty, World of Warcraft and Candy Crush.

Around a decade ago, Microsoft shifted to bringing its corporate clients to subscription-based cloud services. The move has helped lift its market value to $2 trillion and maintain its status as one of the world’s top tech companies. The Activision acquisition positions Microsoft to use the same tactic on consumers by persuading gamers to abandon their expensive hardware and play on the cloud.

“Together with Activision Blizzard, we have an incredible opportunity to invest and innovate, to create the best content, community and cloud for gamers to build substantial new value for our shareholders,” said Microsoft Chief Executive

Satya Nadella

on an investor and media call Tuesday.

With more gamers playing on smartphones rather than pricey game consoles and computers, companies around the world are racing to develop services for streaming high-end games to all kinds of devices the same way movies and TV shows are streamed.

Amazon.com Inc.,

Alphabet Inc.’s

Google,

Sony Group Corp.

and a host of smaller players are trying, but Microsoft has taken a large early lead in the emerging cloud-game space by spending billions of dollars on acquisitions and infrastructure, analysts said.

“Microsoft has big aspirations in gaming,” said

Mark Moerdler,

a Bernstein Research analyst. “Microsoft has been buying a number of studios because of what they’re trying to build with Game Pass and subscription gaming.”

If the company can convert some of Activision’s nearly 400 million monthly active users into subscribers, it could significantly bolster its cloud-game business, Mr. Moerdler said.

Subscribers to Microsoft’s Game Pass have increased 39% in the past year to 25 million, the company said. A billboard in New York pitching Activision’s ’Call of Duty: Vanguard.’



Photo:

Richard B. Levine/Zuma Press

Cloud gaming is an emerging technology that allows people to stream games using nearly any internet-connected device with a screen, much as they stream videos on Netflix, Hulu and other platforms. Streaming games is more challenging, though, because games are interactive and require a lot more data to run smoothly. While Netflix moved into mobile games last year, it has so far offered only a handful of games that subscribers must download to an Android or iOS device—not games that can be streamed via the cloud.

Consumer spending on cloud-game services reached $3.7 billion last year, with Microsoft’s Game Pass accounting for 60%, according to research firm Omdia, which forecasts total cloud-game revenue will hit $12 billion by 2026.

Along with announcing its planned acquisition, Microsoft said Tuesday that subscribers to Game Pass—which includes cloud gaming, online multiplayer support and access to a large, rotating library of games—have increased 39% in the past year to 25 million.

Mr. Nadella said Microsoft plans to bring as many Activision games as it can to Game Pass. As it has done with games from developers it has acquired previously, Microsoft could make future games from Activision exclusive on Game Pass and Xbox consoles, analysts said.

“We do think our investment in cloud creates a unique capability for triple-A content to reach any screen on any device,” Microsoft game chief

Phil Spencer

said after the Activision deal was announced.

Growing its cloud-game business will help Microsoft diversify further into consumer-facing businesses. That could narrow the leads Sony’s PlayStation has on Microsoft in game hardware and Amazon’s in cloud services. Mr. Nadella’s broader strategy for Microsoft puts cloud computing at the center of a collection of disparate businesses, from corporate software and enterprise data storage to social media and digital advertising.

Microsoft’s commitments to gaming and the cloud have been years in the making. Since taking over in 2014, Mr. Nadella has leaned heavily on offering the company’s enterprise customers cloud-computing services to power their businesses. This strategy has been the primary driver behind Microsoft’s ascent to become the world’s second-most-valuable company behind

Apple Inc.,

with a market valuation of nearly $2.3 trillion.

Ms. Wu, a target of the GamerGate scandal, says Activision Blizzard’s CEO led a culture of non-accountability, during an interview at WSJ’s Women In: The Tech Industry event.

For years, gaming took a back seat at Microsoft, where consumer-facing businesses got less attention, former and current employees said. The Xbox team was slotted under the Windows operating system and didn’t directly report to the CEO, as Mr. Nadella focused on selling the Office 365 business-software suite and developing the cloud-computing business. The Xbox group struggled to find its place in this structure, the employees said, as the unit was always competing with Windows priorities for investments, typically without success, they said.

“Under Windows, we had to make trade-offs between investing in big gaming initiatives and features for Windows enterprise customers,” said

Richard Irving,

who spent 12 years working on Xbox before leaving Microsoft in 2016. “That was the challenge of being in the Windows division.”

A Microsoft spokesman declined to comment on the company’s previous management of its game business.

A few years ago, Microsoft decided to become more aggressive about expanding its cloud usage to gaming, its main touch point with consumers. Internally, there has been concern that Microsoft is too dependent on enterprise for growth, said people familiar with company strategy. The decision to do more in gaming came after Microsoft looked at the possibility of buying consumer-facing businesses including TikTok,

Pinterest

and Discord, the people said.

It started snapping up game makers, spending more than $10 billion to buy game studios and build a vast library. The company has added popular titles such as the Doom franchise, acquired last year.

Microsoft isn’t alone. The global videogame industry has been riding a wave of consolidation and investing in recent years. Spending on mergers and acquisitions nearly tripled to $26.2 billion in 2021 from $8.9 billion in 2020, data from PitchBook show. And venture-capital deals nearly doubled to a record $11.2 billion from $6.4 billion, according to the private-market-data firm.

Write to Aaron Tilley at aaron.tilley@wsj.com and Sarah E. Needleman at sarah.needleman@wsj.com

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Microsoft to Buy Activision Blizzard in All-Cash Deal Valued at $75 Billion

The deal, if completed, would sharply expand Microsoft’s already sizable videogame operation, adding a stable of popular game franchises including Call of Duty, World of Warcraft and Candy Crush to Microsoft’s Xbox console business and its own games like Minecraft and Doom. Microsoft said the transaction would make it the world’s third-largest gaming company by revenue, behind China’s

Tencent Holdings Ltd.

and Japan’s

Sony Group Corp.

The deal is valued at $68.7 billion after adjusting for Activision’s net cash, Microsoft said.

An acquisition also would mark the latest and biggest move by Microsoft Chief Executive Officer

Satya Nadella

to reshape Microsoft through a string of deals that have helped make the world’s second-highest-valued company a powerhouse in business computing and a rising giant in videogames.

The deal entails significant complications, too. Shares in Activision had been down nearly 30% since California regulators filed a lawsuit against the company in July alleging sexual harassment and gender-pay disparity among the company’s roughly 10,000 employees.

Activision shares, which jumped in premarket trading Tuesday after The Wall Street Journal reported the company was close to a deal with Microsoft, ended the day at $82.31, gaining 26%. Microsoft shares fell 2.4% Tuesday to $302.65 amid a broader market selloff.

Bobby Kotick,

Activision’s longtime CEO, is expected to leave after the deal closes, according to people familiar with those plans. Microsoft had said in its announcement Tuesday that Mr. Kotick “will continue to serve as CEO of Activision Blizzard,” and that after the deal closes “the Activision Blizzard business will report to Microsoft gaming chief

Phil Spencer.

” But the companies have agreed that he will depart once the deal closes, the people said.

In an interview Tuesday, Mr. Kotick didn’t specifically address his status after the deal closes, but said he has told Microsoft he will “always be available to ensure that we are going to have the very best integration.”

Activision Blizzard has been under intense pressure from shareholders, business partners, and others over workplace-misconduct allegations.



Photo:

Bing Guan/Bloomberg News

Since the California lawsuit, Activision, Mr. Kotick, and its board of directors have been under intense pressure from shareholders, business partners, and others over the misconduct allegations. Following a Wall Street Journal investigative article in November about Activision’s handling of workplace issues, nearly a fifth of Activision’s employees signed a petition calling for Mr. Kotick to resign, and Mr. Spencer told Microsoft employees the company was evaluating its relationship with Activision.

Microsoft approached Activision about a deal in November, after the Journal’s article, people familiar with the matter said. A Microsoft spokesman declined to comment on the timing of the acquisition. An Activision spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Activision has announced a number of changes in recent months that Mr. Kotick has said are intended to make it a welcoming and inclusive workplace, including a zero-tolerance harassment policy and an end to mandatory arbitration for harassment and discrimination claims.

Ms. Wu, a target of the GamerGate scandal, says Activision Blizzard’s CEO led a culture of non-accountability, during an interview at WSJ’s Women In: The Tech Industry event.

On Monday, the Journal reported that Activision had pushed out or disciplined more than 80 employees since July as part of efforts to address harassment and other misconduct allegations.

“We see the progress that they’re making that was pretty fundamental to us deciding to go forward here,” Mr. Spencer said about Activision’s plans to address workplace issues.

The deal follows a boom in the videogame business during the pandemic. It also comes as Microsoft and other technology giants are jockeying for position amid major changes in the sector, including a shift toward cloud-based gaming and the rise of a virtual world known as the metaverse where people can play, work and shop across different platforms using digital avatars.

Mr. Nadella’s Microsoft has shown an enormous appetite for acquisitions—but Activision is more than twice the size of its previous biggest deal. In that earlier purchase, Microsoft paid more than $26 billion for professional social network LinkedIn Corp. in 2016, pushing Microsoft into social media.

Last year, Microsoft made what was then its second-largest acquisition, shelling out $16 billion for artificial intelligence company

Nuance Communications Inc.

to help accelerate growth in the healthcare market.

In making these giant acquisitions, Microsoft has been successful largely because it keeps its hands off new entities and provides support in additional funding and technology like Microsoft’s Azure cloud, said analysts. In July, Microsoft said that LinkedIn for the first time surpassed $10 billion in annual revenue.

Microsoft has stumbled in some of its deal efforts, noticeable in the defeat in 2020 of its attempt at buying parts of short-video app TikTok from Chinese parent company ByteDance Ltd. At the time, TikTok faced a threatened ban in the U.S. by then-President

Donald Trump

over national-security concerns.

Microsoft also engaged in unsuccessful talks to buy social networking company

Pinterest

and chat startup Discord Inc.

After those deals fizzled, Microsoft decided to double down on investments into its gaming ambitions, one person familiar with Microsoft’s strategy said.

Since taking over as CEO in 2014, Mr. Nadella has spent more than $10 billion to buy more than a dozen game studios, including the companies responsible for the Doom franchise and Minecraft.

In October, at the Journal’s WSJ Tech Live conference, Mr. Spencer, the Microsoft gaming chief, said the company wasn’t slowing down on its gaming acquisition spree. “We’re always out there looking for people who we think would be a good match and teams that would be a good match with our strategy, so we’re definitely not done,” Mr. Spencer said.

Microsoft’s gaming strategy increasingly is focused on growing its subscription business, called Game Pass, which for a monthly fee lets gamers have access to a catalog of games. In the past, Mr. Nadella has likened the Game Pass strategy to the “

Netflix

for games.” Microsoft announced early last year that Game Pass had 18 million subscribers. With the Activision announcement on Tuesday, Microsoft said it now has 25 million subscribers.

Microsoft on Tuesday said the deal would bolster its Game Pass portfolio, with plans to bring Activision games into the subscription service. With Activision, Microsoft said it would have 30 internal game development studies. The transaction has been approved by the boards of both companies, Microsoft said, and is expected to close by July 2023.

Buying Activision would increase Microsoft’s videogame revenue by about half. Analysts estimate that Activision’s sales in 2021 totaled $8.7 billion, according to FactSet, while Microsoft reported $15.4 billion in gaming revenue for the fiscal year through June, accounting for about 9% of its total.

Activision’s stock had been rising, amid the videogame industry’s pandemic surge, until the July lawsuit by the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing, which alleged gender pay disparity and sexual harassment at the company. Activision has disputed the department’s allegations.

The company also has been under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Journal reported in September, with a specific focus on Mr. Kotick, who was separately subpoenaed along with other senior executives. Activision has said it is cooperating with the SEC.

Activision also said in September it had agreed to settle a two-year-long probe of sexual harassment claims by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission for $18 million. The settlement is pending a judge’s approval.

The Journal’s investigative article in November, which cited interviews and internal documents, showed that Mr. Kotick didn’t inform the board of sexual-misconduct allegations that he was aware of, including rape, against managers across the company. It also detailed misconduct allegations against Mr. Kotick, including when an assistant complained in 2006 that he had threatened in a voice mail to have her killed.

Activision has said the Journal’s reporting gave a misleading view of the company and its CEO. Mr. Kotick has said he was transparent with his board, which issued a statement supporting him. An Activision spokeswoman has said that he wouldn’t have been informed of every report of misconduct and that Mr. Kotick regrets the alleged incident with his assistant.

The Journal’s article Monday reported that Activision had collected 700 reports of employee concern over misconduct and other issues since July. A summary of the company’s personnel issues was prepared before the December holidays but Mr. Kotick held it back, believing it would make the company’s workplace problems seem bigger than is already known, the Journal reported, citing people familiar with the situation.

An Activision spokeswoman disputed the 700 figure and said employee comments included statements on social media and ranges from benign workplace concerns to “a small number” of potentially serious assertions, which the company investigated. She said “the assertion regarding Mr. Kotick is untrue.”

Microsoft itself has faced pressure from shareholders over its handling of sexual-harassment allegations among its staff. Last week, the company said it plans to be more transparent on the subject, and that its board of directors would review its sexual harassment and gender discrimination policies and unveil a summary of the results of past investigations into how the company handled allegations against company executives, including co-founder

Bill Gates.

The Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, last year said Microsoft board members pursued an investigation in 2019 into Mr. Gates’s prior romantic relationship with a female employee. Mr. Gates stepped down from the board in 2020. In the Journal article, a spokeswoman for Mr. Gates said the affair had ended amicably close to 20 years earlier, and that his decision to leave the board wasn’t related to any investigation.

Write to Cara Lombardo at cara.lombardo@wsj.com, Kirsten Grind at kirsten.grind@wsj.com and Aaron Tilley at aaron.tilley@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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What Is Wordle? How to Play the Viral Word Game and Tricks to Impress Your Friends

Wordle, an online word game, seems like it’s everywhere these days. Here’s what you need to know.

Wordle was created by Josh Wardle, a software engineer from New York. He created a prototype in 2013 and dusted it off during the pandemic for his partner, who likes playing word games.

How do I play?

Go to the game’s website on your desktop or mobile browser. The URL is: https://www.powerlanguage.co.uk/wordle/

Wordle is simple: You have six chances to guess the day’s secret five-letter word. Type in a word as a guess, and the game tells you which letters are or aren’t in the word.

The game is free and has no ads. The aim is to figure out the secret word with the fewest guesses.

In Wordle, colored letter tiles help players inch closer to guessing the day’s secret word.

What do the green and yellow squares mean?

When you make a guess in the game, the letter tiles change colors to show how close you are to the secret word.

If you guess “weary,” and the “W” turns green, that means the secret word starts with a “W.” If the “E” turns yellow, the letter is in the word but not in that spot. Any letters that aren’t in the secret word turn gray.

Is there an app?

Nope. It can only be played on the game’s website, and the creator said he doesn’t plan on turning it into an app.

But that didn’t stop others from making their own copycat games to cash in on the trend. Bogus Wordle apps filled

Apple Inc.

’s App Store in the past week, rising to the top of the most-downloaded charts. But Apple said Tuesday night that it removed those apps.

Can I play more than once daily?

Some players have figured out a way to do that: They use the Wayback Machine, an online internet archive where you can go to Wordle’s website from past days and play old games.

This is a breeze. Is there a harder way to play?

There is a way to switch to “hard mode.” This means when a letter turns green or yellow, you must use those letters in the following guesses.

Whether this is hard or not depends on how you already play. Some already keep guessing words with the correct letters. Others, when they can’t come up with a word with the correct letters, guess with a word that has different letters. 

To switch to hard mode, click the gear icon in the top right corner of the game and click to turn on hard mode.

Why are my Facebook and Twitter timelines a sea of green and yellow squares?

First, sorry about that. It’s part of why the game has gone viral. The creator noticed fans in New Zealand were posting results with colored boxes they drew themselves. So he made it easier to share the results of the game.

What do the numbers mean when people post their results on social media?

When people post their results, numbers appear above the green and yellow squares that look like this: 208 4/6. The first number means the person played game No. 208. Each day, a new game gets a new number. And the “4/6” indicates the person guessed four times before guessing the word of the day correctly. The “6” represents the six guesses players have.

How did Wordle go viral?

Mr. Wardle said the game started to take off in mid-November, when technologist

Andy Baio

put a link to the game in his blog. Mr. Wardle then made it easy to share results by posting the green and yellow squares on

Facebook,

Twitter

and texting apps, and the game went viral from there. 

“The Tonight Show” host

Jimmy Fallon

has tweeted repeatedly about the game, helping fuel its popularity.

How many people are playing?

Some 1.8 million people played on Jan. 7, Mr. Wardle said, whereas just 90 played on Nov. 1, 2021.

Wordle lets people guess a secret word just once a day, posting a new one at midnight in each player’s time zone.

Why is it just once a day?

The once-daily aspect also helped the game go viral. Since everyone in the world gets the same Wordle game at midnight in their time zone, it enables players to talk to each other about how they did and what guesses they made. 

“It becomes a shared experience,” Mr. Wardle said.

I want to become a Wordle whiz. Any tips or tricks?

There is plenty debate among fans on the best way to play. Mr. Wardle himself said he doesn’t know the best strategy. “You’re asking the wrong person,” he said. “I’m very bad at it.”

Avid players typically have a favorite first word they think gets them to the answer fastest. Two groups have emerged: those who type in vowel-heavy words first, such as “adieu” or “arose,” and those who go after common consonants with words such as “stare.”

Some have even created spreadsheets to figure out the most commonly occurring letters in five-letter words. One player determined that those are E, S, A, R and O and opted to use “arose” as his first guess. 

Others just wing it and type whatever comes to their mind. If you’re looking for strategies, try finding a Wordle Facebook group like WORDLE Friends, where people are sharing tips, tricks and hints.

Why is Buffalo Wild Wings tweeting about Wordle?

Brands can’t resist jumping on a viral trend. It is a way to join the conversation and gain followers and likes. The chicken wing chain turned the game into a series of five-letter words: Order. Wings. Today.

Lego reimagined Wordle with its colorful bricks.

London-based Starling Bank Ltd. used Wordle’s squares to tease its rivals on Twitter and proclaim itself the best British bank.

Are famous people playing it?

Yes. Musician

Questlove

tweeted Tuesday that he was “legit amped” after solving his first Wordle puzzle. Mr. Fallon from “The Tonight Show” tweeted in early January to his 51 million followers he was “addicted” to the game. Three days later the comedian tweeted he was “still hooked.”

Mr. Wardle’s friends sent him Mr. Fallon’s tweets. But the creator said he is more impressed by other game developers who have played and tweeted about Wordle.

“I’m not super plugged in to celebrities,” Mr. Wardle said. “I know who Jimmy Fallon is. I don’t watch his show or anything like that.”

I’m color blind. Is there a way to play?

There is a “color blind mode” that switches the correct guesses from green and yellow to orange and blue, colors that are easier to tell apart for people with color blindness. Click the gear icon in the top right corner of the game and click on color blind mode to change it.  

Anything else I should know?

Yes. Wordle spoofs have popped up. You can try to guess the letter of the day. Or there’s another site for naughtier words if that’s your thing. When you guess the right four-letter word, the site tells you, “I’m sure your mother will be very proud.”

Write to Joseph Pisani at joseph.pisani@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8



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GameStop Entering NFT and Cryptocurrency Markets as Part of Turnaround Plan

GameStop Corp.

GME 1.28%

is launching a division to develop a marketplace for nonfungible tokens and establish cryptocurrency partnerships, according to people familiar with its plans, pushing the company into much-hyped areas as it tries to turn around its core videogame business.

The retailer has hired more than 20 people to run the unit, which is building an online hub for buying, selling and trading NFTs of virtual videogame goods such as avatar outfits and weapons, according to the people. The company is asking select game developers and publishers to list NFTs on its marketplace when it launches later this year, the people said.

GameStop also is close to signing partnerships with two crypto companies to share technology and co-invest in the development of games that use blockchain and NFT technology, as well as other NFT-related projects, the people said. The retailer expects to enter into similar agreements with a dozen or more crypto companies and invest tens of millions of dollars in them this year, the people said.

Grapevine, Texas-based GameStop has been working to reset its business after years of losses. The company was at the center of a stock-trading frenzy last year that dramatically boosted its share price, which rode a surge in interest and optimism from individual investors. Many saw potential in GameStop despite the pandemic’s negative impact on foot traffic and even though consumers have been increasingly opting to download and stream games over the internet, rather than buy the kind of hard copies that the company specializes in selling.

Last year, GameStop overhauled its executive team and board of directors, naming activist investor

Ryan Cohen

as chairman. Mr. Cohen, who co-founded online pet-products retailer

Chewy Inc.

and sold it for $3.35 billion in 2017, has been pushing to make GameStop more tech-centric.

The turnaround effort has yet to show significant results in GameStop’s financial performance. In the quarter through October, the company said revenues grew, but its loss widened compared with the same period a year earlier. The revenue growth came from sales of hardware and accessories, while revenue from game software slipped 2%.

“We believe our emphasis on the long term is positioning us to build what will ultimately become a much larger business,” GameStop Chief Executive

Matt Furlong

said on an earnings call with analysts last month. Mr. Furlong, who joined the company last year from

Amazon.com Inc.,

then mentioned that GameStop was exploring business opportunities involving blockchain and NFT technologies.

There are signs some investors are losing patience. GameStop shares have plunged by more than 45% over the past six weeks, though the stock remains far above where it was when investors started piling into GameStop shares a year ago.

Terms like “nonfungible token,” “minting,” “gas fees” and more sound like a foreign language to you? To better understand it—and explain it—WSJ’s Joanna Stern turned her son’s art into an NFT on the Ethereum blockchain. Photo illustration: Jacob Reynolds

Diving into the crypto and NFT space puts GameStop on a rapidly growing list of companies trying to cash in on these nascent and largely unproven technologies. A handful of NFT marketplaces already exist and some feature tokens from game publishers. Earlier this week, a marketplace called OpenSea said it raised $300 million in venture capital and is now valued at $13.3 billion, greater than GameStop’s valuation of close to $10 billion.

The videogame industry is likely to play a major role in the adoption of cryptocurrency, NFTs and blockchain technology, analysts say. Gamers are expected to be among the first to embrace the technologies because they are already spending a lot on virtual goods. Virtual real estate in videogames, as well as videogame collectibles, are a rapidly growing segment of the NFT market.

In recent weeks, some of the industry’s biggest publicly traded videogame companies have launched or announced plans to sell NFTs, including

Ubisoft Entertainment,

Zynga Inc.

and

Square Enix Holdings Co.

Some industry executives and players, though, have expressed concerns about the value of NFTs and developers’ motives for creating them.

By getting into the crypto and NFT space while it is still in its infancy, GameStop hopes to avoid missing out on opportunities to be part of a budding trend as it did with computer-game downloads about a decade ago, the people familiar with its plans said. GameStop tried to get into the streaming of videogames at the time but abandoned the effort. Today, the downloading and streaming of games are rapidly growing trends.

Write to Sarah E. Needleman at sarah.needleman@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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The pandemic boom in videogames is expected to disappear in 2022

While the videogame industry continued to enjoy a pandemic boost in 2021, investors and analysts expect less in 2022, as continued semiconductor shortages and game delays combine with expectations that many will turn off the PlayStation and leave the house.

Chip shortages have especially been a pain for makers of videogame consoles, such as Sony Group Corp.’s
SONY,
-0.62%

6758,
-0.55%
PlayStation, Microsoft Corp.’s
MSFT,
+0.21%
Xbox and Nintendo Co.’s
7974,
-1.73%
Switch consoles. Lewis Ward, gaming research director at IDC, expects that part of the videogame industry to be a drag on growth: IDC expects console/TV spending to decline nearly 6%, to $62.75 billion in 2022.

Overall, Ward estimates worldwide gaming revenue will rise 11% to $251.39 billion in 2021, compared with 2020’s surge of 24% to $226.84 billion. While 11% is still pretty healthy growth, Ward also expects a more “dramatic” flattening in 2022, when he forecasts revenue of $256.43 billion, or only 2% growth.

A lot of that expected flattening has to do with the assumption that the worst of COVID-19 has passed, and that even with variants like delta and omicron popping up, stay-at-home conditions will not go back to what was seen in 2020 and early 2021.

“In my models and discussions with folks, we’re certainly thinking that life will return to something more normal, especially in countries where the vaccination rates are over 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% in some cases,” Ward told MarketWatch in an interview.

Also read: For the videogame industry to grow, it needs to first grow up

Ward said he expects “that there will be a return to normalcy and a substantial minority of the people that were first-time gamers go back to being non-gamers, and a substantial minority of the people who became much more intensive gamers will go back to spending their time and money doing other pursuits beyond gaming, that there will be something of a slowdown inherent in that.”

Games themselves will also be a big issue, as many major releases have faced delays, with no publisher wanting to experience the same fan and media heat as CD Projekt SA
CDR,
-0.20%
did after its bug-plagued 2020 release of “Cyberpunk 2077.” Publishers are more likely to keep updating their older games with fresh downloadable content to keep making money from previously successful releases.

“I think the biggest games in 2022 are going to be the biggest games from 2021, that were the biggest games from 2020,” NPD Group analyst Mat Piscatella said, citing examples like Epic Games’ “Fortnite,” Roblox Inc.’s
RBLX,
-1.42%
platform, Activision Blizzard Inc.’s
ATVI,
+0.73%
“Call of Duty” franchise, and Mojang Studios’ “Minecraft,” which is owned by Microsoft.

“Those are the games that are going to continue to be the biggest because of that persistent content flow they have, and the big are going to stay big — now, trying to break into that tier is becoming exceptionally difficult,” Piscatella said.

Expectations for a dramatic slowdown were apparent on Wall Street in 2021. With two trading sessions left in 2021, Activision Blizzard shares were down 28% on the year, Electronic Arts Inc.
EA,
-0.25%
is down 6%, Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. 
TTWO,
+0.51%
 shares are off by 12%, Zynga Inc.’s
ZNGA,
-1.72%
stock is down 34%, and Unity Software Inc.
U,
+0.72%
shares are down 13%. In comparison, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
IGV,
-0.14%
has risen 11%, and the S&P 500 index
SPX,
+0.14%
has gained 28%.

For companies that went public in 2021, things were a bit different: Shares of Roblox are up 126% from their direct listing price of $45, and AppLovin Inc.
APP,
-2.05%
shares are 17% above their $80 IPO pricing. Shares of Israeli mobile-game developer Playtika Holding Inc.
PLTK,
-3.97%,
however, are 33% off their $27 IPO pricing.

Console makers and buyers had it tough in 2021

Expectations for a shrinking console market come from product cycles and chip shortages. Ward said the current version of Nintendo’s popular Switch console was “getting long in the tooth” and that the company was pulling back shipments in anticipation of a new iteration in 2023.

Ward’s console category includes hardware-bundle spending, while PC and mobile are software/service spending only, and TV refers to micro-console game spending like Alphabet Inc.’s
GOOG,
+0.04%

GOOGL,
-0.02%
Stadia Pro and Nvidia Corp.’s
NVDA,
-1.06%
Shield Android.

Even with strong consumer demand, Sony pulled back shipments of its PlayStation consoles “by about a million units” because of production challenges, and “even though they haven’t said it,” Microsoft has run into similar challenges with the Xbox, Ward said. Microsoft showed its hand by having to resort to using developer models of the Xbox for a recent tournament because it couldn’t find enough consumer versions.

Ward said that console makers are not only contending with chip shortages, but then they have to deal with the logistics of getting the parts to the factories, and then getting finished products out of China to consumers as global supply-chain problems triggered by COVID-19 remain a problem. So, Ward said, the pullback in numbers reflects the console makers’ “own expectations of where they’ll be relative to where they’d thought they would be a few quarters ago.”

Looking at the larger chip picture, other analysts expect supply-chain problems to ease in 2022, but not by much.

“The overall supply landscape remains constrained, but we are generally seeing signs of easing,” Benchmark analyst David Williams said in a recent note. “Demand remains resilient despite inflationary pressures and well-telegraphed shortages across most end markets.”

“Although many areas of the supply chain have improved, we think the prior surge in commodity and transportation costs have not been fully worked through to end consumers, which may be a headwind to consumption in the new year,” Williams said.

Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse looks at it from the demand side and fundamentals in the industry, and said in a recent note “if you think the wall of worry was difficult in 2021, just wait.” Muse thinks a correction in the industry will more likely come in 2023 than 2022.

“On a secular basis, the semiconductor story is robust, with COVID accelerating the digitization of nearly every industry vertical,” Muse said. “Sprinkle in product cycles including AI/ML, data center/networking infrastructure, the Metaverse, 5G, continued broad-based recovery across automotive/industrial, and there is much to like in Semi Land with a clear vision for silicon intensity rising as a % of GDP.”

Bugs or delay? Both result in angry fans

Game development during COVID-19 has seen a rise in a common dilemma: If it’s taking longer than expected to develop a game by its announced release date, do you release it on time and risk it having bugs, or do you delay the release — sometimes repeatedly — to ensure it meets the highest quality-control standards?

Most publishers have chosen to go the latter route of late, after the “Cyberpunk 2077” debacle, which forced distributors like Sony to offer full refunds due to low quality and a lack of backwards compatibility with previous-generation consoles.

Then you have the possibility of the worst of both worlds: A delayed game that is not received well when it does hit. EA’s “Battlefield 2042″ was not only delayed by a month in its release but it became regarded as one of the worst-reviewed games in the history of online game site Steam, with gamers posting online videos showing bugs in the game.

Activision Blizzard said in November it would be delaying the release of two of its highly anticipated games, and Take-Two recently suffered a rough launch of its “Grand Theft Auto: The Trilogy – Definitive Edition.” 

While IDC’s Ward said he thinks delays and bugs are “game specific” — meaning some games are more difficult than others to develop — International Game Developers Association Executive Director Renee Gittins said COVID-19 was the biggest headwind for developers.

“Particularly with the pandemic, we’ve seen a lot of game studios struggle with the transition to remote work,” Gittins said. “When you’re used to working in an open-office environment, where you have a lot of passive communication between teams and you can really more easily collaborate by have those informal meetings in person, being forced into a remote-work environment hurts that communication a lot.”

“There’s a lot of difficulties that game developers normally face and that’s only being exacerbated by this remote-work environment that many have been forced into by the COVID-19 pandemic,” Gittens said.

Videogames to give way to the metaverse?

With new games proving harder to produce as older games continue to rake in cash, many are looking to the “metaverse” as the future of the industry. The concept — a virtual world in which users can build and offer their own experiences — is similar to what Roblox offers, and could offer the industry a way to not rely so heavily on single-game launches, Ward said.

“If the platform does well, you can monetize that for a long time, more than any single game,” he said.

A recent Goldman Sachs report put forward Roblox, Facebook parent company Meta Platforms Inc.
FB,
-0.95%,
and Snap Inc.
SNAP,
-1.36%
as key buy-rated stocks exposed to the multi-year metaverse theme.

“When you think about a traditional game developer/publisher versus companies that are in the metaverse space — and certainly Niantic is trying to go there — I would say Facebook is trying to go there, they’re a platform company,” Ward said.

“And I would say a company like Roblox may not be talking about the metaverse, but I think they’re closer to that than many other game developers and publishers in the sense that they want to be selling picks and shovels and Levis to the actual miners who will go out and make those experiences,” the IDC analyst said.

Read: Amazon videogame exec on the success of ‘New World’ and why everyone is chasing Roblox

Privately held Niantic Inc. “seems to be inching away from ‘Pokemon Go’ as the main vehicle for monetization,” Ward said, and now they’re licensing their Lightship AR development kit “to become a platform company.” Niantic recently raised $300 million and is now worth $8.7 billion, according to Crunchbase.

Expanding game franchises to multiple platforms is also a big trend to look for, Piscatella said, a trend best exemplified by “Call of Duty,” which can be played on PC, console, tablets and phones.

One of those cross-platform categories includes free-to-play games, and the industry is finding better ways to make money off those. It used to be that free-to-play games would have a word from their sponsor, or have video “commercials”: Now developers have found a tweak to make that more fun for the player and more profitable for the sponsor.

Video advertising in games can either be unrewarded — in which a player is interrupted with an ad during game play and can skip it after a few seconds, or in some cases, has no choice but to let the whole ad run — or rewarded, where a player is asked if they want to watch an ad, and they’ll be rewarded with some amount of in-game resources.

Back in August, Zynga highlighted that their “watch to earn” ads were a major revenue driver, while AppLovin, which went public in April, not only makes marketing, monetization and analytics software for developers to grow their businesses, but also owns a portfolio of more than 200 free-to-play mobile games.

When it comes to rewarded ads, “more people like them than dislike them,” IDC’s Ward said. “This ad format is something that gamers actually like versus regular video ads, which are strongly negative.”

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Microsoft Is in Exclusive Talks to Acquire Discord

Microsoft Corp. is in advanced talks to acquire messaging platform Discord Inc. for $10 billion or more, according to people familiar with the matter, as the software giant seeks to deepen its consumer offerings.

Microsoft and Discord are in exclusive talks and could complete a deal next month, assuming the negotiations don’t fall apart, the people said.

Originally favored by gamers, San Francisco-based Discord offers voice, text and video chatting. The platform’s popularity has surged since the pandemic took hold as people stay home and connect online—as has that of other chat services, like Facebook Inc.’s WhatsApp and Signal Messenger LLC. Discord has been considering an IPO.

Microsoft, which has a market value of more than $1.7 trillion, has been on the hunt for an acquisition that would help it reach more consumers. Last summer, it held talks to buy the popular video-sharing app TikTok amid a high-profile geopolitical standoff prompted by the Trump administration, before abandoning the effort.

VentureBeat reported this week that Discord was exploring a sale and had entered exclusive discussions with an unnamed suitor.

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