Tag Archives: finance and investments

Business partners turn on Sam Bankman-Fried


New York
CNN
 — 

The stunning collapse of one of crypto’s most prominent firms has quickly morphed into a legal battle pitting former executives and ex-romantic partners against one another.

Last week, as FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was being extradited to the United States from the Bahamas, two of his former business partners pleaded guilty to multiple charges of fraud and conspiracy.

Caroline Ellison, the 28-year-old former CEO of the crypto hedge fund Alameda, apologized before a federal judge in New York, saying that she and her former associates knowingly stole billions of dollars from customers of Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange and sought to cover it up, according to court transcripts.

“I am truly sorry for what I did,” Ellison told the court. “I knew that it was wrong.”

Ellison told the court that Alameda had a virtually unlimited borrowing facility in FTX, and that she knew the exchange would need to use customer funds to finance loans to the hedge fund. She also agreed to keep the two firms’ unusually close relationship hidden from investors and customers.

From July through October, she told the court, Ellison agreed with Bankman-Fried and others to provide “materially misleading financial statements to Alameda’s lenders,” and prepared balance sheets that concealed the extent of Alameda’s borrowing.

Ellison has been charged with seven criminal counts, including conspiracy to commit wire fraud and money laundering. She and Bankman-Fried were close business associates who briefly dated.

Another associate, Gary Wang, FTX’s former chief technology officer, pleaded guilty to four counts of similar charges.

Wang told the court that part of his role at FTX included making changes to the exchange’s code that would grant Alameda “special privileges” on FTX.

“I knew what I was doing was wrong,” he said.

Both Ellison and Wang are cooperating with federal prosecutors, making them potentially damning witnesses against Bankman-Fried, who has repeatedly denied intentionally defrauding customers and investors.

Bankman-Fried, 30, appeared Thursday in a US courtroom in New York, where a federal judge released him on a $250 million bond. He is required to surrender his passport and remain under house arrest at his parents’ home in Palo Alto, California.

Although $250 million is an extraordinary sum, Bankman-Fried won’t have to pay it unless he violates the terms of his bail agreement or fails to show up to court. The atypical bail plan was agreed to as part of his commitment to waive his extradition fight.

Following his court appearance, Bankman-Fried was spotted in a business class lounge at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. Crypto reporter Tiffany Fong also tweeted a photo showing Bankman-Fried on an American Airlines flight.

Bankman-Fried’s legal team confirmed to CNN Business that he had arrived in Palo Alto and was home with his parents. His lawyer declined to comment on the guilty pleas by Ellison and Wang.

The federal judge Thursday said Bankman-Fried would be arraigned on eight criminal counts including fraud and conspiracy at an unspecified future date.

Prosecutors allege that Bankman-Fried orchestrated “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history,” stealing billions of dollars from FTX customers to cover losses at Alameda and to enrich himself. If convicted, he could face life in prison.

Bankman-Fried, prior to his arrest in the Bahamas earlier this month, had sought to portray himself as a hapless entrepreneur who got out over his skis. He repeatedly apologized to customers and to FTX staff, saying he “f—ed up,” while denying that he knowingly defrauded anyone.

— CNN’s Lauren del Valle and Kara Scannell contributed reporting.



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Elon Musk’s Twitter obsession isn’t the core reason for Tesla stock’s plunge


New York
CNN
 — 

A popular misconception has emerged about Elon Musk and Tesla: The megabillionaire’s love affair with Twitter is the main reason Tesla shares have lost so much value this year. But Tesla’s steep stock selloff this week proved that the problems at Musk’s car company go well beyond Twitter.

Even as Musk signals he may give up his CEO title at Twitter, investors became concerned that the outlook for Tesla’s sales and profit is taking a turn for the worse. A sign of the weakening demand: Tesla has announced a rare sale. The company offered two rebates for buyers who take delivery of a vehicle before the end of the year, initially offering a $3,750 discount earlier this month. Tesla then doubled that rebate to $7,500 Thursday.

“Tesla clearly is starting to see demand cracks in China and in the US at a time that EV competition is increasing across the board,” said Dan Ives, tech analyst with Wedbush Securities and a Tesla bull who cut his price target for the stock Friday from $250 to $175. “The price cuts that Tesla enacted was the straw that broke the camel’s back on the stock.”

Another reason Tesla’s stock is sinking: The US economy could tip into recession next year, hurting car sales. Musk said on an Twitter Spaces call Thursday he foresees the economy will be in a “serious recession” in 2023.

“I think there is going to be some macro drama that’s higher than people currently think,” he said, according to Reuters, adding that homes and cars will get “disproportionately impacted” by economic conditions.

Part of the problem with Tesla’s stock price is that critics question whether it was ever worth the trillion-dollar valuation it had at the start of the year. At its peak, Tesla was worth more than the 12 largest automakers on the planet combined, despite having a fraction of the sales of any of them. Today it is worth $399 billion.

“It got ahead of itself in the near-term,” said Gene Munster of Loup Ventures, another Tesla fan. “I still believe this can be a much bigger company. I think it will see those kinds of numbers again. But it could take a long, long time to get there.”

Tesla’s growth prospects – a target of 50% sales growth annually, helped drive that valuation. It conceded in October that it will miss that sales target for this year.

The stock’s climb to dizzying heights – rising 743% in 2020 alone – was driven by Musk’s reputation as a genius who would disrupt the massive global auto industry.

“Tesla was viewed as a disruptive technology company, not as an automaker, and a large part of that premium is related to Musk,” said Ives.

Critics of Tesla said much of its sky-high valuation was based on promises that Musk made about future products, many of which came years after they were originally promised.

A prime example is the Cybertruck, the Tesla pickup truck, first unveiled three years ago with promises that production would start in 2021. Now it is slated to start production next year, with a ramp-up in production in 2024, putting it years behind other electric pickup offerings from Ford and upstart EV maker Rivian, both of which have electric pickups available for purchase today. It could also trail planned electric pickup offerings from General Motors.

“Elon Musk has a pathological problem with the truth,” said Gordon Johnson, one of the largest critics of Tesla among analysts. “When people say he’s a genius and innovator, it’s based on all his promises he never lives up to.”

Johnson said Tesla shares will have a much steeper fall ahead, once it starts being priced like other automakers rather than on its promises. He said that for Tesla to hit its growth targets it needs to be building new plants almost every year, but that new factories in Germany and Texas that opened in spring are still not operating at full capacity. And he said that its plant in China has had to scale back production due to weak sales in the market in the face of the Covid restrictions.

“Demand in the US has collapsed,” he said. “Two months ago, your wait time was two or three months. Now you can get one immediately. They’re going to build more cars than they sell for a third straight quarter. It’s the definition of excess capacity.”

Tesla is still by far the largest EV maker worldwide, although that title is being challenged in some key markets, by Volkswagen in Europe and by BYD in China. And more competition is coming from established automakers such as Ford and GM.

That’s not to say Twitter has played no role in Tesla’s stock price demise this year: Tesla shares have lost 66% of their value since Musk’s interest in Twitter was first disclosed in April, with a 45% decline since he closed on the deal in late October.

Investors have been disappointed that Musk appears to be paying for so much of his $44 billion purchase of Twitter by selling Tesla stock. Musk, Tesla’s largest shareholder, has sold $23 billion worth of Tesla shares since his interest in Twitter became public in April.

On Thursday’s Twitter Spaces call, Musk promised he was done selling shares of Tesla stock until at least 2024, if not beyond. But he hasn’t lived up to a previous promise in April that he was done selling Tesla shares, selling $14.4 billion of that stock since that time.

“It’s been a Pinocchio situation for Musk saying he is done selling stock. Investors want to see him walk the walk and not just talk the talk,” said Ives.

Another Twitter factor: Musk named himself CEO of Twitter, the third major company he leads, along with Tesla and SpaceX. So, many people assumed that Musk’s loss of focus on Tesla has spooked its former fans on Wall Street.

But this week began with Musk running a poll – on Twitter of course – asking if he should give up the CEO title at his social media plaything. He promised he would comply with the result, and 57.5% of those who voted said they want him gone.

That departure may take a while – Musk tweeted he will resign “as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job!” And the same tweet he cautioned that even if he gives up the CEO title at Twitter, he’s not walking away totally, saying that he plans to “just run the software & servers teams” after finding a new “fool” to be CEO.

The poll results late Sunday were enough to lift Tesla shares in early trading Monday, but the shares ended the day slightly lower, and have lost significantly more ground every day since. Tesla shares fell 9% Thursday, and it ended the week down 18% after another 2% drop on Friday.

And then there’s the question of how much damage the debacle at Twitter has done to the Tesla brand. Musk has fired thousands of employees, banned journalists while allowing Donald Trump and other previously banned accounts back online, called for the prosecution of Dr. Anthony Fauci, embraced conspiracy theories and made anti-trans statements in his short tenure as CEO.

It may have endeared him to some but angered other potential buyers, including liberals who might be willing to pay a premium for a more environmentally friendly vehicle.

“I think it was measurable damage,” said Munster, who believes the publicity over his time at Twitter cost Tesla 5% of its sales.



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PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, shows prices cooling


Minneapolis
CNN
 — 

The trend is clear: Inflation is cooling off in America.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measurement of inflation showed price increases continued to moderate in November, providing yet another welcome indication that the period of painfully high prices has peaked.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE, rose 5.5% in November from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That’s lower than in October, when prices rose 6.1% annually.

In November alone, prices rose just 0.1% from October.

Core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, was up 4.7% annually and 0.2% on a monthly basis, matching expectations of economists polled by Refinitiv.

The annual increases for both PCE inflation indexes hit their lowest levels since October 2021 and follows continued declines in other inflation gauges, such as the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index.

PCE, specifically the core measurement, is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, since it provides a more complete picture of costs for consumers.

Friday’s report also showed that spending continued to rise in November, but at a much slower pace than in previous months. Spending was up 0.1% in November as compared to 0.8% the month before. Personal income increased by 0.4% in November, down from 0.7% in October.

The November PCE report, the last major inflation gauge released in 2022, provided a snapshot of an economy in transition. Tasked with reining in the highest inflation since the early 1980s, the Fed has undertaken a series of blockbuster interest rate hikes to squelch demand.

In its seven meetings starting in March, the central bank’s policymaking arm raised its benchmark interest rate by a cumulative 4.25 percentage points. The sharp hike in rates has started to filter through the economy, its effects showing up first in areas such as real estate, where mortgage rates were 6.27% this week, more than double the rate seen last year at this time, according to Freddie Mac data.

“The economy is moving in the right direction from the Federal Reserve’s perspective at the end of 2022, but not quickly enough,” Gus Faucher, chief economist for PNC Financial Services, said in a statement. “Higher interest rates are weighing on consumer spending, particularly for durable goods, and inflation is slowing.”

Inflation has moderated in recent months, especially on items like goods as supply chain bottlenecks have eased and consumers focused more spending in areas like leisure and hospitality.

However, inflation within the services sector has been a little “sticky,” and not abating as quickly. Friday’s PCE report showed the services index posted a monthly increase of 0.4% – unchanged from October’s rate – and a year-over-year increase of more than 11%, Faucher noted.

While much of the services inflation is due to housing costs, which are rapidly reversing, the Fed is concerned that strong wage growth could fuel persistent increases in services prices and overall inflation, he added.

“The Federal Open Market Committee will continue to increase the fed funds rate in early 2023 until it becomes more apparent that the job market is cooling, and wage growth and services inflation are slowing to more sustainable paces,” he added.

The Fed’s latest economic projections that were released last week showed that board members were expecting inflation to remain slightly higher for longer than previously forecast. Fed board members now expect PCE inflation to end 2023 at 3.1% and core PCE to finish next year at 3.5%, above the central bank’s target rate of 2%.

A separate Commerce Department report released Friday showed that new orders for manufactured goods tumbled 2.1% in November, the biggest monthly drop since the onset of the pandemic.

Transportation equipment, specifically new orders for non-defense aircraft and parts, drove the decline, according to the report. Excluding transportation, new orders increase 0.2%.

Shipments increased 0.2% in November, which followed a 0.4% increase in October.

“Core durable goods orders slowed but did not contract, reflecting growing unease about the economy,” Diane Swonk, chief economist for KPMG, tweeted Friday after the report’s release. “Manufacturing activity has begun to contract and prelim reading for December suggests it will contract further at year end. A cold winter expected for the manufacturing sector.

Inflation’s slow march downward has been welcome news to consumers as well, helping to perk up their economic sentiments during December, according to new data released Friday by the University of Michigan.

The final December reading for the index of consumer sentiment came in at 59.7 in December, up slightly from a preliminary measurement of 59.1 and November’s final reading of 56.8, according to data from the university’s Surveys of Consumers.

“Consumers clearly welcomed the recent easing of inflation,” Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers, said in a statement. “While sentiment appears to have turned a corner from its all-time low from June, consumers have reserved judgment about whether the trends will continue.”

She added: “Their outlook for the economy may have improved, but it remains relatively weak. The sustainability of robust consumer spending is contingent on continued strength in incomes and labor markets in the quarters ahead.”

The report showed the biggest improvement in sentiment about business conditions, while inflation expectations also improved by falling to 4.4% in December, the lowest reading in 18 months, according to the university. This is a key data point for the Federal Reserve. If consumers believe prices will remain high, that could factor into increased wage demands, which could cause businesses to raise prices.

Earlier this week, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index – another measure of how consumers are feeling about the economy – landed at its highest measurement since April 2022.



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Dow and S&P 500 updates: Stock market news


New York
CNN
 — 

The good vibes on Wall Street are fading fast: US slid tumbled yet again on Friday as investors come to grips with a souring economy.

The Dow ended the day down 282 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite was 1% lower.

The sell-off has been broad, but the real estate and consumer discretionary sectors were been hit the hardest, down more than 3% and 1.8%, respectively.

Is the Fed to blame? Sentiment on Wall Street can change on a dime, and this week is evidence of that: The Dow has tumbled about 1,050 points just since the Federal Reserve’s dour policy update at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday.

CNN Business’ Fear and Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, finally dipped into “Fear” Friday. The market has been in “Greed” mode for weeks.

Stocks had been riding high this month on weaker-than-expected inflation and a number of stronger-than-expected reports on the broad economy and the job market. Investors were hopeful that the Federal Reserve could slow its historic pace of rate hikes and inflation could right itself sometime next year without tipping the economy into a recession.

That excitement continued right up until Fed Chair Jerome Powell crashed Wall Street’s party Wednesday with some tough news: Economists at the Fed believe US gross domestic product, the broadest measure of America’s economy, will barely grow next year.

And they predict the US unemployment rate will rise to 4.6% by the end of 2023, which means roughly 1.6 million more Americans will be out of work.

Compounding fears from those Fed forecasts was a worse-than-expected retail sales report Thursday that sent stocks plunging. The Dow lost 765 points Thursday, or 2.3%, the index’s worst day in three months. The S&P 500 lost 2.5% and the Nasdaq tumbled 3.2%, their worst days in a month.

Now, economists at Moody’s Analytics predict America’s economy will grow at an annualized rate of just 1.9% in the fourth quarter, down from its previous estimate of 2.7%. Weak manufacturing and retail reports spooked Moody’s analysts, who also lowered their 2023 GDP forecast to just 0.9%, much lower than 2022’s 1.9% estimate.

“This leaves little room for anything to go wrong,” Moody’s economist Matt Colyar wrote in an analysis.

Not helping stocks: It’s December. Many traders are on vacation, volume is low and tiny moves can get exacerbated.

As my colleague Matt Egan notes, the market may be in a lose-lose situation. Good economic news has been bad news for investors, because the Fed is trying to cool down the economy as part of its inflation-fighting campaign. But bad economic news is also bad for investors – and everyone – because it raises the risk of a recession.

Adobe

(ADBE) and Facebook parent company Meta are the markets largest gainers today, up 3% and 2.8%, respectively. Adobe

(ADBE) shares soared after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and guidance. Meta, which is still down nearly 65% for the year, saw a tick after JPMorgan upgraded shares of the company to neutral from overweight.

– CNN’s Nicole Goodkind and Matt Egan contributed to this report

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What to do about the highest interest rate in 15 years

Editor’s Note: This is an updated version of a story that originally ran on November 2, 2022.

In its last policymaking meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate for the seventh time in a row, to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. That is the highest it’s been in 15 years.

In a continued bid to tame decades-high inflation, the central bank may keep pushing rates higher next year, too, albeit at a more modest pace.

That, of course, means higher borrowing costs for consumers. But it also means your savings may actually start earning a little money after years of barely-there interest.

“Credit card rates are at a record high and still increasing. Auto loan rates are at an 11-year high. Home equity lines of credit are at a 15-year high. And online savings account and CD yields haven’t been this high since 2008,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

The good news: There are ways to situate your money so that you can benefit from rising rates and protect yourself from their costs.

If you’ve been stashing cash at big banks that have been paying next to nothing in interest for savings accounts and certificates of deposit, don’t expect that to change much, McBride said.

Thanks to the big players’ paltry rates, the national average savings rate is still just 0.19%, up from 0.06% in January, according to Bankrate’s December 7 weekly survey of large institutions.

But all those Fed rates hikes are starting to have a much more significant impact at online banks and credit unions, McBride said. They’re offering far higher rates — with some topping 3.75% currently — and have been increasing them as benchmark rates go higher.

As for certificates of deposit, there’s been a noticeable increase in return. The average rate on a one-year CD is 1.20% as of November 22, up from 0.14% at the start of the year. But top-yielding one-year CDs now offer as much as 4.5%.

So shop around. If you make a switch to an online bank or credit union, however, be sure to only choose those that are federally insured.

Given today’s high rates of inflation, Series I savings bonds may be attractive because they’re designed to preserve the buying power of your money. They’re currently paying 6.89%.

But that rate will only be in effect for six months and only if you buy an I Bond by the end of April 2023, after which the rate is scheduled to adjust. If inflation falls, the rate on the I Bond will fall, too.

There are some limitations: You can only invest $10,000 a year. You can’t redeem it in the first year. And if you cash out between years two and five, you will forfeit the previous three months of interest.

“In other words, I Bonds are not a replacement for your savings account,” McBride said.

Nevertheless, they preserve the buying power of your $10,000 if you don’t need to touch it for at least five years, and that’s not nothing. They also may be of particular benefit to people planning to retire in the next 5 to 10 years since they will serve as a safe annual investment they can tap if needed in their first few years of retirement.

When the overnight bank lending rate — also known as the fed funds rate — goes up, various lending rates that banks offer their customers tend to follow.

So you can expect to see a hike in your credit card rates within a few statements.

The average credit card rate hit a record high of 19.40% as of December 7, up from 16.3% at the start of the year, according to Bankrate. Some retail store credit cards are now carrying whopping rates of more than 30%.

“[Interest rate hikes] will most acutely impact those consumers who do not pay off their credit card balances in full through higher minimum monthly payments,” said Michele Raneri, vice president of US research and consulting at TransUnion.

Best advice: If you’re carrying balances on your credit cards — which typically have high variable interest rates — consider transferring them to a zero-rate balance transfer card that locks in a zero rate for between 12 and 21 months.

“That insulates you from [future] rate hikes, and it gives you a clear runway to pay off your debt once and for all,” McBride said. “Less debt and more savings will enable you to better weather rising interest rates, and is especially valuable if the economy sours.”

Just be sure to find out what, if any, fees you will have to pay (e.g., a balance transfer fee or annual fee), and what the penalties will be if you make a late payment or miss a payment during the zero-rate period. The best strategy is always to pay off as much of your existing balance as possible — on time every month — before the zero-rate period ends. Otherwise, any remaining balance will be subject to a new interest rate that could be higher than you had before if rates continue to rise.

If you don’t transfer to a zero-rate balance card, another option might be to get a relatively low fixed-rate personal loan. Average personal loan rates range from 10.3% to 12.5% for those with excellent credit scores, according to Bankrate. The best rate you can get would depend on your income, credit score and debt-to-income ratio. Bankrate’s advice: To get the best deal, ask a few lenders for quotes before filling out a loan application.

Mortgage rates have been rising over the past year, jumping more than three percentage points.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.33% in the week ending December 9, according to Freddie Mac. That is more than double where it stood a year ago.

“After cresting above 7%, mortgage rates have pulled back a bit but not enough to impact buyer affordability. The year-to-date rise in mortgage rates has still stripped would-be homebuyers of one-third of their buying power,” McBride said.

What’s more, mortgage rates may climb further.

So if you’re close to buying a home or refinancing one, lock in the lowest fixed rate available to you as soon as possible.

That said, “don’t jump into a large purchase that isn’t right for you just because interest rates might go up. Rushing into the purchase of a big-ticket item like a house or car that doesn’t fit in your budget is a recipe for trouble, regardless of what interest rates do in the future,” said Texas-based certified financial planner Lacy Rogers.

If you’re already a homeowner with a variable-rate home equity line of credit, and you used part of it to do a home improvement project, McBride recommends asking your lender if it’s possible to fix the rate on your outstanding balance, effectively creating a fixed-rate home equity loan.

If that’s not possible, consider paying off that balance by taking out a HELOC with another lender at a lower promotional rate, McBride suggested.

Given that inflation may have peaked, market returns may be better next year, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management. “The outlook for equity and fixed income returns has improved, and a balanced approach [in your portfolio] makes sense.”

That’s not to say markets won’t remain choppy in the near term. But, Ma noted, “A soft landing for the economy looks not only possible but likely.”

Any cash you have sitting on the sidelines might be put into the equity and fixed income markets in regular intervals over the next six to 12 months, he suggested.

Ma remains bullish on value stocks, especially small cap ones, which have outperformed this year. “We expect that outperformance to persist going forward on a multi-year basis,” he said.

Regarding real estate, Ma noted, “the sharply higher interest and mortgage rates are challenging…and that headwind could persist for a few more quarters or even longer.”

Commodities, meanwhile, have come down in price. “But they still are a good hedge given the uncertainty in energy markets,” he said.

Broadly speaking, however, Ma suggests making sure your overall portfolio is diversified across equities. The idea is to hedge your bets, since some of those areas will come out ahead, but not all of them will.

That said, if you’re planning to invest in a specific stock, consider the company’s pricing power and how consistent the demand is likely to be for their product, said certified financial planner Doug Flynn, co-founder of Flynn Zito Capital Management.

To the extent you already own bonds, the prices on your bonds will fall in a rising rate environment. But if you’re in the market to buy bonds you can benefit from that trend, especially if you purchase short-term bonds, meaning one to three years. That’s because their prices have fallen more, relative to long-term bonds, and their yields have risen more. Ordinarily, short- and long-term bonds move in tandem.

“There’s a pretty good opportunity in short-term bonds, which are severely dislocated,” Flynn said.

“For those in higher-income tax brackets, a similar opportunity exists in tax-free municipal bonds.”

Muni prices have dropped significantly and, while they have started to improve, yields have risen overall and many states are in better financial shape than they were pre-pandemic, Flynn noted.

Ma also recommends short-term corporate bonds or short-term Agency or Treasury securities.

Other assets that may do well are so-called floating rate instruments from companies that need to raise cash, Flynn said. The floating rate is tied to a short-term benchmark rate, such as the fed funds rate, so it will go up whenever the Fed hikes rates.

But if you’re not a bond expert, you’d be better off investing in a fund that specializes in making the most of a rising rate environment through floating rate instruments and other bond income strategies. Flynn recommends looking for a strategic income or flexible income mutual fund or ETF, which will hold an array of different types of bonds.

“I don’t see a lot of these choices in 401(k)s,” he said. But you can always ask your 401(k) provider to include the option in your employer’s plan.

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Treasury Secretary Yellen predicts major inflation cooldown in 2023


New York
CNN
 — 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is striking a cautiously optimistic tone about 2023, predicting a major inflation cooldown and stressing that a recession isn’t required to get prices back under control.

“I believe by the end of next year you will see much lower inflation, if there’s not an unanticipated shock,” Yellen told CBS’s “60 Minutes” in an interview that aired on Sunday.

Yellen cited plunging gas prices — AAA said Monday the national average is down by 52 cents per gallon in the past month — tumbling shipping costs and shortening delivery lags.

“I hope that it will be short-lived,” Yellen said of the current period of high inflation. “We learned a lot of lessons from the high inflation we experienced in the 1970s. And we’re all aware that it’s critically important that inflation be brought under control and not become endemic to our economy. And we’re making sure that won’t happen.”

Yellen, like many economists and even the Federal Reserve, has previously been overly optimistic about inflation. She admitted earlier this year that she was “wrong” about the path of inflation, telling CNN’s Wolf Blitzer in June that she “didn’t — at the time — fully understand” the “large shocks to the economy” that would come from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The comments come after Friday’s hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation report, which showed producer prices increased in November at the slowest annual pace in 18 months.

The more closely watched consumer inflation report due out on Tuesday this week is expected to show a similar cooldown of consumer prices.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a seventh-straight interest rate hike on Wednesday, though investors are betting the US central bank will slow the pace of rate increases from three-quarters of a point to half a point. The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes have driven up borrowing costs — credit card rates are at record highs — and raised fears of a recession.

Yellen conceded a recession is possible in the months ahead — though the former Fed chair emphasized that one isn’t required to tame inflation.

“There’s a risk of a recession,” Yellen said. “But it certainly isn’t, in my view, something that is necessary to bring inflation down.”

Like other Biden administration officials, Yellen argued the economy is in the midst of a healthy transition from blockbuster growth to something more sustainable.

“We had a very rapid recovery from the pandemic. Economic growth was very high,” Yellen said. “To bring inflation down and because almost anyone who wants a job has a job, growth has to slow.”

Yellen said the US economy is at or near full employment, meaning it’s “not necessary” for rapid growth to get people back to work.

The Treasury secretary said she tries to instill a sense of compassion and urgency into policymaking by stressing to her staff that real people are suffering.

Yellen recalled how in 2009 when millions of people were out of work in the middle of the Great Recession, she reminded her staff at the San Francisco Federal Reserve, where she was president from 2004-2010, that there are real people behind labor market statistics and economists need to worry about their wellbeing.

“I think I said, ‘They’re f***people,’” Yellen said. “I wanted people that worked for me to take seriously the harm and misery that was being experienced by all too many Americans.”

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Key inflation measure shows price pressures cooled off in November, but remain high


New York
CNN
 — 

Another key inflation measure shows price pressures cooled off but remained stubbornly high in November, despite the Federal Reserve’s monthslong efforts to fight inflation through higher interest rates.

The Producer Price Index, which measures prices paid for goods and services by businesses before they reach consumers, rose 7.4% in November compared to a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That’s down from the revised 8.1% gain reported for October.

US stocks fell immediately after the report, as economists surveyed by Refinitiv had expected wholesales prices to have risen just 7.2%, annually. The higher-than-expected inflation readings raised concerns about whether the Fed will be able to slow the pace of rate hikes.

But futures for the Fed funds rate still show a strong likelihood of a half-point increase at the central bank’s policymaking meeting next week, rather than the three-quarter point hike instituted at the last four meetings.

The PPI report generally gets less attention that the corresponding Consumer Price Index, which measures prices paid by US consumers for goods and services. But this is a rare month in which the PPI report came out before the CPI report, which is due out Tuesday.

That and the Fed meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday next week is making this inflation report of particular importance to investors.

“Next Tuesday’s CPI release will be more important than today’s data, but with traders on edge, any indication that prices remain elevated and that inflation is more sticky than currently believed is a negative for markets,” said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.

Overall prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% compared to October — the same monthly increase as was reported in both September and October — but were slightly higher than the 0.2% rise forecast by economists.

Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core PPI rose 6.2% for the year ending in November, down from the revised 6.8% increase the previous month. Economists had forecast only a 5.9% increase.

Core PPI posted a 0.4% increase from October, a far bigger rise than the revised 0.1% month-over-month rise in that previous month, and twice as big as the 0.2% rise forecast by economists.

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Keystone Pipeline shuts down after oil leak, halting flow of 600,000 barrels a day


New York
CNN Business
 — 

The Keystone Pipeline has been shut down following a leak discovered near the border of Kansas and Nebraska.

The shutdown of the major oil pipeline that carries crude from Canada triggered volatility in the energy market on Thursday, with oil prices briefly surging as much as 5% before retreating.

Federal safety regulators are investigating the leak and have deployed to the site, a spokesperson for the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration told CNN.

Canada’s TC Energy

(TRP) said it launched an emergency shutdown of the Keystone Pipeline System at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday after alarms were triggered and pressure dropped in the system. The company said the system remains shut as “our crews actively respond and work to contain and recover the oil.”

Calgary-based TC Energy said there has been a “confirmed release of oil” into a creek located about 20 miles south of Steele City, Nebraska. An estimated 14,000 barrels of oil have been discharged as of late Thursday, the company said.

The PHMSA, an arm of the Transportation Department charged with enforcing safety regulations for pipelines, said the leak is located near Washington, Kansas, which is near the border with Nebraska.

The spokesperson said the agency continues to investigate the cause of the leak.

US oil prices climbed as high as $75.44 a barrel on the news, before easing. In recent trading, oil was up 0.8% to $72.57 a barrel. The gains follow a steep selloff in recent days that left crude at levels unseen since December 2021.

No timetable has been given for restarting the Keystone Pipeline, a 2,700-mile system that delivers mostly Canadian oil to major refineries across America. The pipeline can transport more than 600,000 barrels of oil per day.

Matt Smith, an analyst at commodity data provider Kpler, said Canadian oil normally transported by Keystone can’t be easily replaced.

“We’re seeing a pop in prices because this will impact refiners that take this crude,” Smith said.

“Our primary focus right now is the health and safety of onsite staff and personnel, the surrounding community, and mitigating risk to the environment through the deployment of booms downstream as we work to contain and prevent further migration of the release,” TC Energy said in a statement.

The leak happened on an existing Keystone pipeline that is separate from Keystone XL, a controversial pipeline project that was terminated last year after President Joe Biden revoked the pipeline’s permit on his first day in office.

The Keystone Pipeline has experienced leaks in the past, including one in South Dakota in 2016 and another one in 2019 in North Dakota that impacted nearly five acres.

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When China and Saudi Arabia meet, nothing matters more than oil


Hong Kong
CNN
 — 

Chinese leader Xi Jinping is visiting Saudi Arabia this week for the first time in nearly seven years, during which he signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with the world’s largest oil exporter and met leaders from across the Middle East.

The visit is a sign that China and the Gulf region are deepening their economic relations at a time when US-Saudi ties have crumbled over OPEC’s decision to slash crude oil supply. As Xi wrote in an article published in Saudi media, the trip was intended to strengthen China’s relations with the Arab world.

The partnership agreement signed by the two sides includes a number of deals and memoranda of understanding, such as on hydrogen energy and enhancing coordination between the kingdom’s Vision 2030 and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, according to the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA). It did not provide specific details.

China is Saudi Arabia’s biggest trading partner and a source of growing investment. It’s also the world’s biggest buyer of oil. Saudi Arabia is China’s largest trading partner in the Middle East and the top global supplier of crude oil.

“Energy cooperation will be at the center of all discussions between the Saudi-Chinese leadership,” said Ayham Kamel, head of Eurasia Group’s Middle East and North Africa research team. “There is great recognition of the need to build a framework to ensure that this interdependence is accommodated politically, especially given the scope of energy transition in the West.”

Governments around the world have committed to drastically cutting carbon emissions over the coming decades. Countries such as Canada and Germany have doubled down on renewable energy investments to expedite their transition to net-zero economies.

The United States has significantly increased domestic oil and gas output since the 2000s, while accelerating its transition to clean energy.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February has triggered a global energy crisis that has left all countries racing to shore up supplies. And the West has further scrambled the oil markets by slapping an embargo and price cap on the world’s second biggest exporter of crude.

Energy security has also increasingly become a key priority for China, which is facing significant challenges of its own.

Last year, bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia and China hit $87.3 billion, up 30% from 2020, according to Chinese customs figures.

Much of the trade was focused on oil. China’s crude imports from Saudi Arabia stood at $43.9 billion in 2021, accounting for 77% of its total goods imports from the kingdom. That amount also makes up more than a quarter of Saudi Arabia’s total crude exports.

“Stability of energy supplies, in terms of both prices and quantities, is a key priority for Xi Jinping as the Chinese economy remains heavily reliant on oil and natural gas imports,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University.

The world’s second largest economy is heavily reliant on foreign oil and gas. 72% of its oil consumption was imported last year, according to official figures. 44% of natural gas demand was also from overseas.

At the 20th Party Congress in October, Xi stressed that ensuring energy security was a key priority. The comments came after a spate of severe power shortages and soaring global energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As the West shunned Russian crude in the months that followed the invasion, China took advantage of Moscow’s desperate search for new buyers. Between May and July, Russia was China’s No. 1 oil supplier, until Saudi Arabia regained the top spot in August.

“Diversity is a key ingredient for China’s long-term energy security because it cannot afford to put all of its eggs in one basket and turn itself into a captive of another power’s energy and geostrategic interests,” said Ahmed Aboudouh, a nonresident fellow with the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, a research institute based in DC.

“Although Russia is a source of cheaper supply chains, nobody can guarantee, with utmost certainty, that the China and Russia relationship will continue to shore up 50 years from now,” Aboudouh said.

The Saudi Press Agency cited Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman as saying Wednesday that the kingdom would remain China’s “credible and reliable partner in this field.”

Saudi Arabia also has strong motivations to deepen energy ties with China, according to Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.

“The Saudis are concerned about losing market share in China in the face of a tsunami of heavily discounted Russian and Iranian crude,” he said. “Their goal is to ensure China remains a loyal customer even when the competitors offer [a] cheaper product.”

Oil prices have fallen back to where they were before the Ukraine war on fears of a sharp global economic slowdown. The extent to which the Chinese economy can pick up pace next year will have a huge bearing on how bad that slump will be.

Beyond security of supply, Saudi Arabia could offer Beijing another prize with bigger geopolitical ramifications.

Riyadh has been in talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in the Chinese currency, the yuan, rather than the US dollar, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Such a deal could be a boost to Beijing’s ambitions to expand the Chinese currency’s global influence.

It would also hurt the long-standing agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States that requires Saudi Arabia to sell its oil only for US dollars and to hold its reserves partly in US Treasuries, all in return for US security guarantees. The “petrodollar system” has helped preserve the dollar’s status as the top global reserve currency and payment medium for oil and other commodities.

Although Beijing and Riyadh never confirmed the reported talks, analysts said it was logical that the two sides would be exploring the possibility.

“In the near future, Saudi Arabia could sell some of its oil and receive revenues in Chinese yuan, which makes economic sense as China is the kingdom’s top trading partner,” said Naser Al Tamimi, senior associate research fellow at ISPI, an Italian think tank on international affairs.

Some believe it’s already happening, but that neither China nor the Saudis want to highlight it publicly.

“They know too well how sensitive this issue [is] for the United States,” said Luft. “Both parties are overexposed to the US currency and there is no reason for them to continue to conduct their bilateral trade in a third party’s currency, especially when this third party is no longer a friend of either.”

Xi’s visit could mark another step “in the erosion of the dollar’s status” as reserve currency, he added.

Nonetheless, there are limits to the growing ties between Riyadh and Beijing.

“The Biden administration’s approach to the Middle East has concerned the Saudis, and they see a growing relationship with China as a hedge against potential US abandonment and a tool for leverage in negotiations with the United States,” said Jon B. Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington DC-based think tank.

The Biden administration has reoriented its policy priorities with a focus on countering China. At the same time, it has indicated its intention to downsize its own presence in the Middle East, sparking worries among allies there that the United States may not be as committed to the region as it used to be.

“All that being said, Chinese-Saudi ties pale in both depth and complexity to Saudi-US ties,” Alterman said. “The Chinese remain a novelty to most Saudis, and they are additive. The United States is foundational to how Saudis see the world, and how they have seen it for 75 years.”

Despite the possibility of shifting to yuan transactions, it’s too early to say Saudi Arabia would ditch the dollar in pricing its oil sales, analysts said.

Eurasia Group’s Kamal believes it’s “highly unlikely” that Saudi Arabia would take such a step, unless there is an implosion on the US-Saudi relationship.

“In essence there could be discussion on pricing of barrels to China in yuan, but this would be limited in size and probably only correspond to bilateral trade volumes,” he said.

Prasad from Cornell University said countries like China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are all eager to reduce their dependence on the dollar for oil contracts and other cross-border transactions.

“However, in the absence of serious alternatives and with few international investors willing to place their trust in these countries’ financial markets and their governments, the dollar’s dominant role in global finance is hardly under serious threat,” he said.

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Oil tankers are getting stuck in the Black Sea. That could become a problem



CNN
 — 

A bottleneck is building across an important trading route for oil, which if left unresolved could knock global supply and boost prices at a fragile moment for energy markets.

As of Thursday, 16 oil tankers traveling south from the Black Sea were waiting to cross the Bosphorus strait into the Sea of Marmara, an increase of five from Tuesday, according to a report from Istanbul-based Tribeca Shipping Agency. A further nine tankers were waiting to cross southbound from the Sea of Marmara through the Dardanelles strait into the Mediterranean.

The snarl-up in waterways controlled by Turkey, which Turkish officials said is mostly affecting crude oil shipments destined for Europe, has caught the attention of UK and US government officials who are now in talks with Ankara to resolve the growing impasse.

The snag is linked to a Western price cap on Russian oil that came into effect on Monday. The cap is supposed to limit the Kremlin’s revenues without adding to stress on the global economy by reducing supply. But Turkey is insisting that vessels prove they have insurance that will pay out in light of the new sanctions, before allowing them to pass through the straits linking the Black Sea and Mediterranean.

Although currently causing no disruption to global oil supply and thus prices, the hold-up could become a problem if left unresolved, said Jorge Leon, senior vice president for oil market analysis at Rystad Energy. “This is a very popular route around the world for global trade and specifically for crude,” he told CNN Business.

Countries including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan use the Turkish straits to get their oil to world oil markets.

The traffic jam in the Turkish straits arose following the imposition this week of the price cap on Russian oil. The cap bars ship owners carrying Russian oil from accessing insurance and other services from European providers unless the oil is sold for $60 a barrel or less.

In light of the cap, Turkish maritime authorities are concerned about the risk of accidents or oil spills involving uninsured vessels, and are preventing ships from passing through Turkish waters unless they can provide additional guarantees that their transit is covered.

In a notice issued last month by Turkey’s government ahead of the price cap, maritime director general Ünal Baylan said that given “catastrophic consequences” for the country in the event of an accident involving a crude tanker, “it is absolutely required for us to confirm in some way that their [protection and indemnity] insurance cover is still valid and comprehensive.”

The International Group of P&I Clubs, which provides protection and indemnity insurance for 90% of the goods shipped by sea, has said it cannot comply with the Turkish policy.

The Turkish government’s requirements “go well beyond the general information that is contained in a normal confirmation of entry letter” and would require P&I Clubs to confirm coverage even in the event of a breach of sanctions under EU, UK and US law, the UK P&I Club said in a statement.

Turkish officials say this position is “unacceptable” and on Thursday reiterated demands for letters from insurers. “The majority of the crude oil tankers waiting to cross the strait are EU ships and a majority of the petrol is destined for EU ports,” the Turkish maritime authority said in a statement.

“It is difficult to understand why EU-based insurance companies are refusing to provide this letter… for ships that belong to the EU, carrying crude oil to [the] EU when the sanctions in question have been set forth by the EU,” it added.

Western officials, clearly worried about potential disruption to oil supply, say they are in talks with Turkey’s government to resolve the situation.

US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal on a call that the price cap only applies to Russian oil and “does not necessitate additional checks on ships” passing through Turkish waters.

“Both officials highlighted their shared interest in keeping global energy markets well supplied by creating a simple compliance regime that would permit oil to transit the Turkish straits,” the Treasury Department said in a statement.

“The UK, US and EU are working closely with the Turkish government and the shipping and insurance industries to clarify the implementation of the Oil Price Cap and reach a resolution,” according to a statement from the UK Treasury.

“There is no reason for ships to be denied access to the Bosporus Straits for environmental or health and safety concerns,” it added.

Despite the backlog of tankers, the average waiting time to cross the Bosphorus strait is still well below where it was this time last year, according to Leon of Rystad Energy. “Given the reaction from UK and US officials, my hunch is that this is going to be resolved very soon,” he said.

-— Gül Tüysüz in Istanbul contributed to this article.



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