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J.P. Morgan Says These 3 Gold Stocks Could Surge 40% (Or More)

Let’s talk about gold. The precious metal is the traditional safe haven investment, backed by its use – starting 5,000 years ago – as a reliable store of value. Investors looking to protect their portfolio and secure their wealth traditionally bought heavily into gold, and the price of gold has sometimes been used as a proxy (albeit an inverse one) for general economic health. In a recent report, investment firm J.P. Morgan took a long look at the state of the gold industry – specifically, the gold mining industry. Analyst Tyler Langton points out an underlying paradox in two basic facts about gold mines. “Over time, in a commodity business, the lowest cost producers with the longest life assets tend to be the relative winners… Gold mines, when compared to base metals, typically have much shorter mines (sic) lives, and the gold miners have to focus on replacing reserves to maintain levels of production,” Langton noted. At first glance, Langton’s paradox may seem to point away from heavy investments in gold mines. After all, these are high-risk commodity producers. But current times are actually pretty good for gold miners. Prices are elevated compared to recent years; the metal is running just under $1,800 per ounce now, but it peaked above $2,000 in August of last year, at the height of the corona shutdowns, and it was as low as $1,200 just 18 months ago. The current high prices bode well for producers. Langton states his belief that there is support for current prices, with gold and gold mines being seen as a hedge against ‘macro uncertainty.’ He believes that the main sources of support will be found in “real interest rates remaining lower for longer and COVID-19 related stimulus measures continuing to expand central bank balance sheets.” With this in the background, Langton and his colleagues have begun selecting the gold mining stocks they see as winners in the current environment. Unsurprisingly, they like the companies that show discipline on M&A activity, a focus on free cash flow, and solid returns to shareholders. Using the TipRanks database, we’ve pulled up the details on several of their recent picks. Are they as good as gold? The analysts seem to think so; all are Buy-rated and potentially offer significant upside. Let’s dig in. Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) First up, Kinross Gold, is a mid-cap company– valued at $8.6 billion – with active mining operations in the US, Brazil, West Africa, and Russia. Taken together, these operations have proven and probable gold reserves of 29.9 million ounces. The company is guiding toward 2.4 million ounces in total production for 2021, rising to 2.9 million ounces by 2023. The company’s profitability can be seen by cost of sales per ounce, at $790, and the all-in sustaining cost, at $1,025 per ounce. With gold currently selling at $1,782 on the commodity exchanges, Kinross’s near-term success is clear. Two sets of statistics highlight Kinross’ profitability. First, the company’s recent record of quarterly results shows steadily rising revenues and earnings. Aside from a dip in 1Q20, at the start of the corona crisis, Kinross’ revenues have been gaining steadily since the start of 2019 – and even in 2020, every quarter showed a year-over-year increase. After 7 years without dividend payments, Kinross used its strong performance in recent months to restore the company dividend. Payments are still made irregularly, but since announcing in September 2020 that the dividend would be reinstated, two payments have been made and a third has been announced for March of this year. Each payment has been for 3 cents per share, which translates to a modest yield of 1.6%. The key point here is not strength of the yield, but rather, the confidence that management has displayed in the near- to mid-term by restarted dividend payments. Based on current production projections, the payments are expected to continue until 2023. Tyler Langton, in his notes on Kinross, comes to a bullish conclusion: “Given its expected growth projects and pipeline of additional projects, we think Kinross will be able to maintain average annual production of 2.5mm oz. over the next decade. The company has an attractive cost profile, and we expect costs to decrease over the next several years. The company should also generate attractive strong levels of FCF at current gold prices, and we expect Kinross to direct this cash toward internal growth projects and its dividend.” In line with these comments, he selects Kinross as JPM’s ‘top pick in the gold sector,’ and rates the stock as Overweight (i.e., a Buy). His $11 price target suggests a 61% upside potential in the coming year. (To watch Langton’s track record, click here) Kinross gets a Strong Buy recommendation from the analyst consensus, based on a 6 to 2 split between the Buy and Hold reviews. Wall Street’s analysts have set an average price target of $11.25, slightly more bullish than Langton’s, and implying a one-year upside of 64% from the current trading price of $6.85. (See KGC stock analysis on TipRanks) SSR Mining, Inc. (SSRM) Moving up north to Canada, we now take a look at Vancouver-based SSR Mining. This is another mid-cap mining company, producing gold and silver in quantity through four active mines in Canada, the US, Argentina, and Turkey. The Canadian, US, and Turkish operations produce primarily gold, while the Puna operation is Argentina’s largest silver mine. Although SSR missed on both the top- and bottom-line estimates in its latest quarterly report, for the 2020 full-year production numbers, the company met the previously set guidance. Gold production for the year hit 643,000 ounces, with 31% of that total coming in the fourth quarter. Silver production at the Puna mine reached 5.6 million ounces, beating the guidance figures. Fourth quarter production was 39% of the total. Last November, the company announced that it will be initiating a dividend policy starting in 1Q21. The ‘base dividend’ will be set at 5 cents per share, or a 1% yield; as with KGC above, the key point is not whether the dividend is high or low, but that management is starting to pay it out – a sign of confidence in the future. Langton bases his assessment of SSRM on its strong free cash flow forecast, writing, “At current gold forward prices, we estimate that SSR will generate close to $400mm of FCF in 2021 and around $500mm per year from 2022-2024. Furthermore, starting from a 2021 base, we forecast that SSR would generate cumulative FCF from 2021- 2025 of US$2.3bn, or roughly 59% of its current market cap…” In line with his comments, Langton puts an Overweight (i.e. Buy) rating on the stock, along with a $24 price target that indicates a 60% upside for the next 12 months. (To watch Langton’s track record, click here) There are 8 recent reviews on SSRM shares – and every single one of them is a Buy, making the Strong Buy analyst consensus rating here unanimous. The stock is selling for $15.25, and its robust $28.78 average price target suggests a high 89% one-year upside. (See SSRM stock analysis on TipRanks) Newmont Mining (NEM) Last on the list, Newmont, is the world’s largest gold miner, boasting a $45.78 billion market cap, and active production in a variety of metals, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead. The company has assets – both operations and prospects – in North and South America, Africa, and Australia, and is the only gold miner listed on the S&P 500. With that last detail in mind, it’s worth noting that NEM shares are up 29% in the last 12 months – more than the S&P’s gain of 16% over the same period. In 3Q20, the company showed $3.12 billion in revenue. While this missed the forecast, it did improve on the prior year’s Q3 by 5.4%. The Q3 results were also a company record, with a free cash flow of $1.3 billion. Results below expectations were a common pattern for the company’s 2020 performance in Q1 and Q2, as well. The corona crisis depressed results, but even the depressed results were up year-over-year. Newmont has an active capital return program for shareholders. Since the beginning of 2019, the company has used both dividends and share repurchases to return capital to stakeholders, to the tune of $2.7 billion. This past January, Newmont announced a $1 billion continuation of the share repurchases. Looking ahead to 2021, the company has also announced a new dividend framework, setting the base payment at $1 per share annualized, and reiterated its commitment to capital return. JPM’s Michael Glick led the note on Newmont, starting out by acknowledging the company’s strong production: “We are forecasting NEM’s attributable gold production to remain relatively steady over the 2021-2025 time frame at around 6.5-6.7mm oz…” Of the company’s mid-term production prospects Glick went on to say, “In terms of production, the ongoing expansion at Tanami should deliver incremental production and lower cash costs starting in 2023. Additionally, we expect Newmont to approve its Ahafo North and Yanacocha Sulfides projects this year, which should bring on incremental production for the company after the projects’ roughly three-year development time-line.” Glick likes Newmont’s FCF and production numbers, using them to back his Overweight (Buy) rating. His $83 price target implies an upside of 46% for the months ahead. (To watch Glick’s track record, click here) Newmont, for all its strength, still gets a Moderate Buy rating from the analyst consensus. This is based on 8 reviews, including 5 Buys and 3 Holds. The average price target is $74.97, suggesting room for 31% growth from the current trading price of $56.99. (See NEM stock analysis on TipRanks) To find good ideas for gold stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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N.J. weather: Winter storm watch issued in 17 counties. Up to 8 inches of snow and sleet could fall in Thursday storm.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for 17 New Jersey counties ahead of a storm that is expected to dump 4 to 8 inches of snow and sleet across our region Thursday and early Friday, along with a thick layer of ice in some areas.

The winter storm watch covers all of northern New Jersey, most of central New Jersey and the western region of South Jersey. It is effective from early Thursday morning through Friday afternoon, with the exact times varying from region to region.

ALSO: When will the snow start? Latest update on timing, track for ‘slop-fest’ winter storm

Although a watch is not as urgent as a warning, it puts residents and public officials on alert that there’s a potential for dangerous winter weather on the way. If forecasters remain confident the storm will drop heavy snow, heavy sleet or significant freezing rain, the watch will likely be upgraded to a warning before the storm — the latest in our long parade of February storms — arrives.

The National Weather Service is predicting 6 to 8 inches of snow for parts of New Jersey and at least a few inches for the entire state on Thursday. Here’s the latest forecast on the timing and precipitation types.

The storm could be a “slop-fest,” said forecaster Nick Carr. “What we might see is a few inches of snow on the front end and then an inch or two of sleet.”

Active storm alerts

Here’s a look at the winter storm alerts in each county as of late Tuesday afternoon:

Bergen County: Winter storm watch effective from 6 a.m. Thursday through 6 a.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 4 to 8 inches of snow in this area.

Burlington County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow and sleet in the northwestern region of the county, plus a coating of ice ranging from one-tenth of an inch to as much as a quarter-inch.

Camden County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow and sleet in this area, plus a coating of ice ranging from one-tenth of an inch to as much as a quarter-inch.

Essex County: Winter storm watch effective from 6 a.m. Thursday through 6 a.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 4 to 8 inches of snow in this area.

Gloucester County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow and sleet in this area, plus a coating of ice ranging from one-tenth of an inch to as much as a quarter-inch.

Hudson County: Winter storm watch effective from 6 a.m. Thursday through 6 a.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 4 to 8 inches of snow in this area.

Hunterdon County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 5 to 8 inches of snow and sleet in the northwestern region of the county.

Mercer County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow and sleet in this area, plus a coating of ice ranging from one-tenth of an inch to as much as a quarter-inch.

Middlesex County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow and sleet in this area, plus a coating of ice ranging from one-tenth of an inch to as much as a quarter-inch.

Monmouth County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow and sleet in the western region of the county, plus a coating of ice ranging from one-tenth of an inch to as much as a quarter-inch.

Morris County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 5 to 8 inches of snow and sleet in the northwestern region of the county.

Passaic County: Winter storm watch effective from 6 a.m. Thursday through 6 a.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 4 to 8 inches of snow in this area.

Salem County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow in this area, plus a coating of ice ranging from one-tenth of an inch to as much as a quarter-inch.

Somerset County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 5 to 8 inches of snow and sleet in the northwestern region of the county.

Sussex County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 5 to 8 inches of snow and sleet in the northwestern region of the county.

Union County: Winter storm watch effective from 6 a.m. Thursday through 6 a.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 4 to 8 inches of snow in this area.

Warren County: Winter storm watch effective from 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday. Forecasters are expecting 5 to 8 inches of snow and sleet in the northwestern region of the county.

Snow forecast maps

This is the National Weather Service’s early snow forecast for most of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, Delaware and eastern Maryland for Thursday’s winter storm.National Weather Service

This is the National Weather Service’s early snow forecast for northeastern New Jersey, New York City, Long Island and the Hudson Valley for Thursday’s winter storm.National Weather Service

Ice forecast

This is the National Weather Service’s early ice accumulation forecast for parts of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, Delaware and eastern Maryland for Thursday’s winter storm.National Weather Service

Thank you for relying on us to provide the journalism you can trust. Please consider supporting NJ.com with a subscription.

Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com.

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India’s dramatic fall in virus cases leaves experts stumped

NEW DELHI (AP) — When the coronavirus pandemic took hold in India, there were fears it would sink the fragile health system of the world’s second-most populous country. Infections climbed dramatically for months and at one point India looked like it might overtake the United States as the country with the highest case toll.

But infections began to plummet in September, and now the country is reporting about 11,000 new cases a day, compared to a peak of nearly 100,000, leaving experts perplexed.

They have suggested many possible explanations for the sudden drop — seen in almost every region — including that some areas of the country may have reached herd immunity or that Indians may have some preexisting protection from the virus.

The Indian government has also partly attributed the dip in cases to mask-wearing, which is mandatory in public in India and violations draw hefty fines in some cities. But experts have noted the situation is more complicated since the decline is uniform even though mask compliance is flagging in some areas.

It’s more than just an intriguing puzzle; determining what’s behind the drop in infections could help authorities control the virus in the country, which has reported nearly 11 million cases and over 155,000 deaths. Some 2.4 million people have died worldwide.

“If we don’t know the reason, you could unknowingly be doing things that could lead to a flare-up,” said Dr. Shahid Jameel, who studies viruses at India’s Ashoka University.

India, like other countries, misses many infections, and there are questions about how it’s counting virus deaths. But the strain on the country’s hospitals has also declined in recent weeks, a further indication the virus’s spread is slowing. When recorded cases crossed 9 million in November, official figures showed nearly 90% of all critical care beds with ventilators in New Delhi were full. On Thursday, 16% of these beds were occupied.

That success can’t be attributed to vaccinations since India only began administering shots in January — but as more people get a vaccine, the outlook should look even better, though experts are also concerned about variants identified in many countries that appear to be more contagious and render some treatments and vaccines less effective.

Among the possible explanations for the fall in cases is that some large areas have reached herd immunity — the threshold at which enough people have developed immunity to the virus, by falling sick or being vaccinated, that the spread begins to slacken, said Vineeta Bal, who studies immune systems at India’s National Institute of Immunology.

But experts have cautioned that even if herd immunity in some places is partially responsible for the decline, the population as a whole remains vulnerable — and must continue to take precautions.

This is especially true because new research suggests that people who got sick with one form of the virus may be able to get infected again with a new version. Bal, for instance, pointed to a recent survey in Manaus, Brazil, that estimated that over 75% of people there had antibodies for the virus in October — before cases surged again in January.

“I don’t think anyone has the final answer,” she said.

And, in India, the data is not as dramatic. A nationwide screening for antibodies by Indian health agencies estimated that about 270 million, or one in five Indians, had been infected by the virus before vaccinations started — that’s far below the rate of 70% or higher that experts say might be the threshold for the coronavirus, though even that is not certain.

“The message is that a large proportion of the population remains vulnerable,” said Dr. Balram Bhargava, who heads India’s premier medical research body, the Indian Council of Medical Research.

But the survey offered other insight into why India’s infections might be falling. It showed that more people had been infected in India’s cities than in its villages, and that the virus was moving more slowly through the rural hinterland.

“Rural areas have lesser crowd density, people work in open spaces more and homes are much more ventilated,” said Dr. K. Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India.

If some urban areas are moving closer to herd immunity — wherever that threshold lies — and are also limiting transmission through masks and physical distancing and thus are seeing falling cases, then maybe the low speed at which the virus is passing through rural India can help explain sinking numbers, suggested Reddy.

Another possibility is that many Indians are exposed to a variety of diseases throughout their lives — cholera, typhoid and tuberculosis, for instance, are prevalent — and this exposure can prime the body to mount a stronger, initial immune response to a new virus.

“If the COVID virus can be controlled in the nose and throat, before it reaches the lungs, it doesn’t become as serious. Innate immunity works at this level, by trying to reduce the viral infection and stop it from getting to the lungs,” said Jameel, of Ashoka University.

Despite the good news in India, the rise of new variants has added another challenge to efforts here and around the globe to bring the pandemic under control. Scientists have identified several variants in India, including some that have been blamed for causing new infections in people who already had an earlier version of the virus. But they are still studying the public health implications.

Experts are considering if variants may be driving a surge in cases in the the southern state of Kerala, which had previously been hailed as a blueprint for tackling the virus. Kerala now accounts for nearly half of India’s current COVID-19 cases. Government-funded research has suggested that a more contagious version of the virus could be at play, and efforts to sequence its genome are ongoing.

With the reasons behind India’s success unclear, experts are concerned that people will let down their guard. Large parts of India have already returned to normal life. In many cities, markets are heaving, roads are crowded and restaurants nearly full.

“With the reducing numbers, I feel that the worst of COVID is over,” said M. B. Ravikumar, an architect who was hospitalized last year and recovered. “And we can all breathe a sigh of relief.”

Maybe not yet, said Jishnu Das, a health economist at Georgetown University who advises the West Bengal state on handling the pandemic.

“We don’t know if this will come back after three to four months,” he warned.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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5 takeaways as Boston Celtics fall to Sacramento Kings in chaotic finish

COMMENTARY

The Boston Celtics lost a chaotic game to the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday, falling 116-111 after a near-costly shot-clock malfunction, an intentionally missed free throw that nearly worked, and yet another blown lead late.

Five takeaways as the short-handed Celtics came up… short.

The Celtics’ fourth-quarter problems are something of a pattern.

In theory, the Celtics should be a very good fourth-quarter team. Jayson Tatum is deadly. Jaylen Brown has been blowing by defenders. Kemba Walker hasn’t completely shaken off his rust (and he didn’t play on Wednesday), but he has a history of excellence late as well.

So why do the Celtics keep blowing fourth-quarter leads? On Wednesday, De’Aaron Fox scored repeatedly, Hassan Whiteside punished Boston with his size, and the Celtics’ offense seemed to blow a tire. On the second night of a back-to-back with no Kemba Walker or Marcus Smart (or Payton Pritchard), perhaps Brad Stevens’ lack of concern post-game makes sense.

“I thought our guys gave good effort,” Stevens said. “We struggled to get stops late but the last two quarters they made a lot of tough plays.”

Tristan Thompson finding his footing is a solid sign.

Thompson’s emergence over the last few games has been an encouraging sign for the Celtics. On Wednesday, Thompson finished with 17 points on 7-for-9 shooting.

Thompson won’t be asked to do much offensively — just finish put-backs and score in the paint when defenders zero in on Boston’s stars in the pick-and-roll. The Celtics also have other bigs if Thompson doesn’t contribute — despite his success, he didn’t play in the fourth quarter (Stevens said postgame he liked what Rob Williams brought to the table).

But judging Thompson off the first quarter of his season — on a new team for the first time, adjusting to new teammates — probably wasn’t reasonable. Offensively, Thompson provides some value if he forces defenses to think twice.

Harrison Barnes prompted a lot of speculation.

During the NBC Sports Boston broadcast, Kings forward Harrison Barnes was batted around extensively as a possible trade target for the Celtics. A big wing who can defend multiple positions, Barnes has championship pedigree and would provide a steady, two-way veteran presence

Barnes has been a popular name among fans. The Celtics would need to attach some salary with any draft compensation since they are hard-capped, but the traded-player exception would help quite a bit.

Could it happen? Maybe. Will it? Who knows. Fake trades are difficult to predict since real trades are incredibly difficult to execute in the NBA, and any amount of speculation often ends up circling back to the same 4-5 players. Barnes makes sense for the Celtics, but betting the field is always a good call when evaluating specific targets.

The Celtics struggled without Jayson Tatum.

Predictably, the Celtics struggled without Jayson Tatum in the game. Jaylen Brown has been a superstar this season, but his minutes have been best when combined with Marcus Smart (who, obviously, is out for a while). When Tatum went out of the game on Wednesday, the Celtics’ offense looked ragged. When he was in, the offense was more coherent.

Interestingly, the Celtics were bad without Tatum even though Tatum shot poorly for much of the game (27 points, 11-for-26 shooting). Part of the Celtics’ struggles were the dire point-guard situation (more on that in a minute), forcing Tatum to be used for much of the game as a secondary ball-handler — in addition to being the primary scorer. But the Celtics really need more from other contributors.

Who plays back-up point guard when Payton Pritchard returns?

Jeff Teague finished with seven points on 1-for-6 shooting from the field. Simply plugging him in with the starters didn’t do much for Boston on either end — in theory, Teague should provide spacing but defenses understandably don’t respect his 36 percent shooting in the paint and restricted area, so he doesn’t collapse effectively.

Tremont Waters, meanwhile, had a nightmarish performance — three points, 1-for-8 from the floor. His shot selection has been questionable at times this year, as if he’s struggling to adjust from being the G-League Rookie of the Year/MVP candidate to a potential NBA contributor.

Payton Pritchard could return soon from his knee sprain. When he does, he presumably will be on a minutes restriction, but an argument can be made for him to take over the secondary point-guard role behind Kemba Walker. Teague’s continued offensive struggles are less than encouraging, and Pritchard is a pesky defender.

In any case, the Celtics will welcome whatever health they can get it. Playing short-handed on the second night of a back-to-back looked like a struggle.

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Skull Session: Buckeyes’ National Title Odds Somehow Fall, College Football’s Roster Size Problem, and Ohio State’s Graphics Team Wastes No Time

One day, I’m going to tell my kids about when players actually signed their LOIs on national signing day.

Word of the Day: Haptic.

 TOUGH CROWD. Here’s a head-scratcher – last week, Ohio State beat Penn State and smacked Michigan State to extend its hot streak to six wins in seven games, earning the Buckeye a No. 7 ranking in the AP Poll.

… and their national title odds somehow went down.

Yes, last week the sportsbook BetOnline.ag gave Ohio State 33/1 odds to win the 2021 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. As of yesterday, that number is 40/1.

Now, to be fair, pretty much everyone else’s odds dropped too. Only the top-four teams and Alabama (which lost its last game by five?) saw their odds increase. So basically, bettors are just increasingly convinced that one of those teams will win the natty.

That’s fine. Keep doubting Zed Key and the Buckeyes. Before you know it, they’ll be cutting down the nets.

 GOTTA DO SOMETHING. You could pretty easily make a solid top-10 list of the wildest and most completely unprecedented things to happen in college football in 2020.

But my personal favorite is when the NCAA gave every single player an extra season of eligibility without seeming to even remotely consider the long-term roster, recruiting and financial ramifications.

But now, almost six months later, they’re realizing there are going to be some problems in the coming years.

The transfer surge is expected to continue well into next year’s cycle, not only because of the one-time transfer exception but as a result of a COVID-19-inspired rule granting each athlete an extra year of eligibility. While the seniors who return for next season do not count against a team’s 85 scholarship limit, players from all future classes do.

For instance, players who were juniors in the fall of 2020 and would normally have graduated by the 2022 season will now have the option to return as fifth- or even sixth-year seniors. They’d count against the 85. Meanwhile, some freshman classes in 2021 will be giant: 25 incoming freshmen will be coupled with roughly 25 “COVID-shirted” freshmen (true sophomores who were freshmen during 2020) for a 50-person rookie class. That leaves 35 scholarship spots for three classes.

While teams can have 85 players on scholarship each year, they can sign only 25 new players a year. The 100 signees over four years leaves a 15-player wiggle room for natural attrition. New transfer legislation and the impending COVID-shirter wave is causing unnatural attrition.

In the 2022 and 2023 recruiting cycles, coaches have one of two choices: retain their scholarship players and add fewer signees, or push out scholarship players and sign a normal class.

“The biggest challenge are these juniors who are going to be seniors [in 2022],” says Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell. “Those are going to be hard discussions.”

The entire piece does a great job of highlighting how there already aren’t anywhere near enough roster spots available for kids thinking they’re going to transfers, and that’s before you give every player for at least four classes an extra season of eligibility and allow a free one-time transfer for all players.

Unless the NCAA does something about the 85 scholarship limit, this is going to be a complete disaster in a couple of years and is almost certainly going to cost some kids college degrees they otherwise would have received.

I’m all for giving players extra eligibility – that’s fine. But doing it without adjusting roster size limits at all is going to leave countless kids hung out to dry.

 OBEY YOUR ELDERS. Aaron Craft hasn’t put on a Buckeye uniform in almost seven years and didn’t even play under Chris Holtmann, but you’d be mistaken if you thought he didn’t still have some clout in that locker room.

 Aaron Craft needs to return to the program as a team manager. I’m sure medical school and being a father is hard and stuff, but priorities are priorities.

 THAT WAS QUICK. Yesterday, EA Sports announced it will once again be making a college football video game. And Ohio State’s graphics team wasted absolutely no time turning that into a recruiting opportunity.

The ABCs of Ohio State football – Always Be ‘Crootin.

 SONG OF THE DAY. “Honeysuckle Rose” by Fats Waller.

 NOT STICKING TO SPORTS. A trip down Afghanistan’s deadliest road… The case of the serial sperm donor… Why you should never ‘unsubscribe’ from illicit spam emails and texts… Psychological tricks for coping with a midlife crisis… Philadelphia’s “building ghosts” have a lot to say…



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Dow Jones Futures Fall As Biden Meets With Republicans; GME Stock Dives 30%

Dow Jones futures, along with S&P 500 futures, turned lower late Monday amid key coronavirus stimulus talks between President Joe Biden and a group of Republican senators. GME stock plunged 30% amid the ongoing short squeeze. Tesla stock surged on a price-target hike Monday, while Dow Jones leader Apple is again approaching a buy point.




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The stock market recovered from Friday’s sell-off, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite surged 2.55%. The S&P 500 rallied 1.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average followed up with a 0.8% gain.

Among the Dow Jones leaders, Apple (AAPL) rallied 1.6%, while Microsoft (MSFT) rose 3.3%. Apple stock remains below its recent buy point, while Microsoft is now just out of buy range.

Tesla (TSLA) recovered from Friday’s 5% sell-off, racing 5.8% higher Monday. Among the Chinese EV leaders, Nio (NIO) fell further below its buy point, while Xpeng Motors (XPEV) remains far from its old highs. Both reported strong January sales. Li Auto (LI) is expected to report January sales in the near future.

Among top stocks in or near buy zones, AdaptHealth (AHCO) broke out past a new buy point and is in buy range, while PayPal (PYPL) continued to rebound from its key 50-day support level. Meanwhile, ServiceNow (NOW) is just under its own buy point.

Apple, Microsoft, PayPal and Tesla are IBD Leaderboard stocks. AdaptHealth was Monday’s IBD Stock Of The Day, while ServiceNow was featured in this week’s Stocks Near A Buy Zone.

Dow Jones Futures Today: Biden Stimulus Talks

After the close Monday, Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1% each vs. fair value. Nasdaq 100 futures were slightly higher vs. fair value. Remember that trading in Dow Jones futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

At 5 p.m. ET on Monday, President Biden is expected to discuss potential coronavirus stimulus plans with a group of 10 Republican senators at the White House. On Sunday, the group proposed a $618 billion package, far less than Biden’s $1.9 trillion plan. The Republican plan includes new stimulus checks of $1,000 per person, depending on income level.

Among exchange traded funds, Innovator IBD 50 (FFTY) jumped 3.1% Monday. The Nasdaq 100-linked Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) traded up 2.5%. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rallied 1.6%.

U.S. Stock Market Today Overview

Index Symbol Price Gain/Loss % Change
Dow Jones (0DJIA) 30212.37 +229.75 +0.77
S&P 500 (0S&P5) 3773.77 +59.53 +1.60
Nasdaq (0NDQC ) 13403.39 +332.69 +2.55
Russell 2000 (IWM) 210.60 +5.04 +2.45
IBD 50 (FFTY) 44.47 +1.35 +3.13
Last Update: 4:28 PM ET 2/1/2021

Stock Market Pulls Back, Finds Support

Looking back at the current uptrend, November was a key month for the stock market. IBD’s The Big Picture flagged the new uptrend following the market’s bullish follow-through day on Nov. 4. Meanwhile, the start of February has the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq and S&P 500 trying to find support near key levels during the current pullback.

Friday’s Big Picture commented, “The major stock indexes experienced a sharp sell-off Friday, ending the week on a down note. Top growth stocks were hit hard and the Nasdaq fell through a key support level, resulting in a stock market downgrade.”

Due to the recent weakness, it would be a great time to play some defense. Weakness can snowball, so it’s usually best to get off margin to avoid outsize losses. Meanwhile, you can reduce some exposure by cutting positions that show a loss after recently breaking out.

Focus on stocks that showed strong relative strength during last week’s sell-off. They could be some of the market’s leaders if the indexes are able to rebound.


Stock Market ETF Strategy And How To Invest


Dow Jones Stocks To Buy And Watch: Nike’s New Buy Point

Dow Jones stock Nike is tracing a new flat base with a 148.05 buy point, according to IBD MarketSmith chart analysis. The stock rallied 1.6% Monday.

Shares of the retailer remain below their 50-day moving average line, and about 8% off their 52-week high.

Stocks In Or Near Buy Zones: AdaptHealth, PayPal, ServiceNow

Monday’s IBD Stock Of The Day, AdaptHealth, broke out above a 39.86 buy point in a consolidation base. Shares rallied 4.9% Monday and are in the buy zone that tops out at 41.85.

IBD Leaderboard stock PayPal continues to rebound from its 50-day line, placing the payments leader in a new buy area Monday. The stock rose 3.2% Monday.

According to Leaderboard commentary, “PayPal is trading below a new alternate entry (244.35) and making its first test of the 10-week moving average in 2021.”

ServiceNow is approaching a 566.84 buy point in a flat base, according to IBD MarketSmith chart analysis. Shares rallied 2.9% early Monday.

According to IBD Stock Checkup, NOW stock shows a solid 94 out of a perfect 99 IBD Composite Rating. The Composite Rating — an easy way to identify top growth stocks — is a blend of key fundamental and technical metrics to help investors gauge a stock’s strengths.

GME Stock Short Squeeze

The GME stock short squeeze faltered Monday, as shares plunged nearly 31% to give back a large portion of Friday’s 67% surge. GameStop (GME) stock slipped as much as 23% before paring some losses in extended trade Monday.

Robinhood continues to limit purchases in short-squeeze targets, like GameStop and AMC Entertainment (AMC). Robinhood customers could only buy one share of GameStop early in the short squeeze, and five options contracts. However, Robinhood raised that to 20 shares on Monday, CNBC reported.


IBD Live: A New Tool For Daily Stock Market Analysis


Chinese EV Leaders: Li Auto, Nio, Xpeng Motors

Li Auto is expected to announce its January sales in the coming days. Li Auto stock is trading below its 50-day line, about 33% off its 52-week high.

Early Monday, Nio and Xpeng Motors reported strong January sales numbers.

In January, Nio grew sales 352% to 7,225 electric vehicles. Nio stock reversed from early gains to edge lower Monday. Shares are below their 57.30 buy point in a cup base.

Meanwhile, Xpeng Motors grew sales 470% to 6,015 electric vehicles. Xpeng stock rallied 2.3% Monday.

Tesla Stock Gets Price-Target Hike

IBD Leaderboard stock Tesla snapped a three-day losing streak Monday, racing nearly 6% higher. Ahead of the stock market open, Piper Sandler upped its Tesla stock price target from 515 to 1,200.

The Jan. 8 IBD Stock Of The Day column signaled that Tesla was flashing several signs of a climax top amid a sharply vertical run over the past few weeks. But so far the stock is showing tremendous resilience after hitting record highs last week.

On Jan. 25, Tesla stock hit a record high at 900.40. Shares are about 80% above a 466 buy point in a cup with handle amid Monday’s action.

Dow Jones Leaders: Apple, Microsoft

Among the top Dow Jones stocks, Apple moved up 1.6% Monday, but remains below its 138.89 buy point in a cup with handle. Shares gave up the entry during last week’s sharp weakness.

Meanwhile, Microsoft rallied over 3.3% Monday, recovering the entirety of Friday’s 2.9% decline.

Shares of the software giant broke out past a 228.22 buy point in recent sessions. The stock is just out of the 5% buy zone that goes up to 239.63.

Be sure to follow Scott Lehtonen on Twitter at @IBD_SLehtonen for more on growth stocks and the Dow Jones futures.

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Golden Nuggets: Will Stafford be the first QB domino to fall?

It feels like we’ve had every unverified account say that Matthew Stafford is headed to the 49ers other than Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport. The rumor mill isn’t heating up — we’re well past that stage — it’s overflowing.

Former Shanahan QB believes 49ers will look to replace Garoppolo

“You look at those championship games: (there were) four great quarterbacks playing in those championship games.”

“Do they have a great quarterback? They don’t. In my opinion, they don’t have a great quarterback,” Rosenfels said. “They have a good NFL starter, I think. But not a great quarterback, and they’re definitely on the hunt for that.”

“They know Jimmy’s probably good enough to get back there. But could we get somebody who could get back there regularly?”

“NFL quarterbacks should not miss many throws. They just shouldn’t. And that’s probably when he gets most frustrated.”

The NFL teams that need Deshaun Watson the most, ranked

3 San Francisco 49ers

The window for that defense is going to close faster than 49ers fans realize. The 49ers should be all-in mode. A Watson-Shanahan combo would instantly make them the favorites in the NFC next year.

49ers legend Rathman announces his retirement from coaching

“He made an immediate impact in our running back room upon his arrival and he deserves a tremendous amount of credit for the development of our backs into multifaceted players. We’ll miss hearing his infamous, ‘Squeeze it!’ from the sideline at practice and on game day.”

“It’s been fantastic,” Rathman said in 2017 of his time with the 49ers. “Just going back to the playing days in the DeBartolo era. Playing for the organization and coaching for Eddie and the York family and Jed. They’ve shown me nothing but respect. I have no hard feelings.

“I still feel like I’m part of the family. Even though I won’t be there, I’ll still feel part of the family.”

A 49ers’ cost-benefit analysis of Jimmy Garoppolo and QB trade options

Detroit cap hits

• 2021: $33 million

— $9.5 million base salary

— $13 million prorated bonus

— $10 million roster bonus

— $500,000 workout bonus

• 2022: $26 million

New team’s cap hits if traded

• 2021: $20 million

• 2022: $23 million

Garoppolo’s cap hit is set to be $26.9 million in 2021. Stafford’s number would only be $20 million for the 49ers. Though those cap savings obviously aren’t as big as the ones Watson’s contract would bring, keep in mind that any trade for Stafford would likely involve a contract extension that’d further lower his cap hit.

SF 49ers: 3 things to know about new DC DeMeco Ryans

Ryans effectively outperformed his rookie teammate, Williams, throughout the season. He picked up 156 total tackles which put him second in the league in that stat, and a whopping 126 of those were solo tackles which led the league. He also logged 3.5 sacks, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery and one interception.

For his amazing rookie performance, he earned the 2006 AP Defensive Rookie of the Year award.

How—and Why—the Senior Bowl Is Happening

What’s the first quarterbacking domino to fall?

I think it’s probably Matthew Stafford, and as a result of that, I think it was smart for the Lions to be aggressive in getting word out there.

The bottom line: We don’t know exactly what San Francisco or Vegas or the Rams are going to do, nor is there true certainty on how the Dolphins and Jets will make use of their Top-3 picks. So if you’re a quarterback-hungry team right now, the Lions are your first call. And with a chance of supply outweighing demand on the quarterback market a month from now, the best idea for a seller is to get ahead of that potential problem.

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NC weather: Winter Storm Warning issued for several counties as snow begins to fall

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) — A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for several North Carolina counties as snow started to fall in the area overnight.

The warning is out for Granville, Halifax, Person, Vance and Warren counties until 8 a.m., according to the National Weather Service. The NWS is forecasting these counties could see up to three to four inches of snow accumulation. Many other counties in the area are under a Winter Storm Advisory.

In Roxboro, one of the units in our breaking news fleet already had a coating of snow around 2:30 a.m.

A car was stuck on the side of the road in Roxboro as well.

Get the latest weather updates sent straight to your phone by downloading the ABC11 mobile app

On Wednesday, the Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the northern half of our viewing area from midnight through 8 a.m. on Thursday. The advisory includes the Triangle counties along with areas north, bordering I-85 and I-95.

Accumulations now look to be 3 to 4 inches of snow along the Virginia border and 2 to 3 inches in the Triangle. Areas south of the Triangle should see less than an inch.

Most of the accumulation should be grassy surfaces, but since this will be occurring at night, there could be slick spots in the morning.

“This looks to be similar to our event last February which dropped 1 to 3 inches one evening, but did not accumulate on the roads much,” Chief Meteorologist Chris Hohmann said. “Should be a very wet snow, which will be pretty on the trees, etc. It’s not often we go from the 50s and sunshine to snow in less than 12 hours; should be interesting.”

WATCH: Director of Emergency Management Mike Sprayberry on preps for possible snow Thursday morning

Wednesday night’s rain has the North Carolinas Department of Transportation’s salt and sand trucks on standby due to the possibility that it would wash away. Crews are expected to report for duty between midnight and 4 a.m.

The NCDOT expects much of the winter precipitation to melt quickly, but the main concern is higher-elevation roads and bridges

The Sandhills region will see less accumulation, from flurries to a half-inch.

ABC!! Meteorologist Don “Big Weather” Schwenneker said precipitation will move out of our region between 5 to 8 a.m. beginning in the southwest part of the viewing area. Skies will clear out mid-morning with the sun returning. Temperatures will stay well below average in the 40s and wind chills will be in the 30s for most of the day with a stiff wind gust around 25 MPH.

Winter weather in a pandemic | What to expect this year

Typically, our snow events happen when cold air is already in place, and moisture moves into the area.

That’s what happened 21 years ago in one of the biggest snow events the Triangle has ever seen.

Here’s a look back at that snow and what forecasters learned from it:

Check out the latest weather radar

Winter weather in a pandemic | What to expect this year

Get weather on the ABC11 News app.

Check out the latest weather radar

Copyright © 2021 WTVD-TV. All Rights Reserved.



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Stock futures dip after a steep sell-off on Wall Street, Apple and Tesla fall after earnings

Stock futures tied to major U.S. equity indices were flat in overnight trading on Wednesday as the market is poised to extend a sharp sell-off amid concerns about heightened speculative trading.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded just 10 points lower. S&P 500 futures were little changed and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.4%.

Apple turned in its largest revenue on record at $111.4 billion in its fiscal first-quarter earnings report for fiscal 2021. Sales for every product category rose by double-digit percentage points. Shares of the tech giant dipped 3%, however.

Tesla dropped more than 3% in extended trading after the electric car maker posted worse-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. The company also said it expects annual average delivery growth of 50% going forward.

Wall Street suffered steep losses on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow posting their worst day since October, as the speculative buying frenzy in heavily shorted stocks kept investors on edge. Some fear that hedge funds being squeezed could be forced to reduce their equity holdings to raise cash.

“Short squeezes causing implosions in some hedge funds are joining SPACs, IPOs, and bitcoin as data points supporting a market bubble thesis,” Scott Knapp, chief market strategist at CUNA Mutual Group, said in a email. “This is a time for caution for investors.”

Trading volume exploded in the previous session with 23.7 billion shares changing hands, marking the heaviest trading day since at least 2007.

Brick-and-mortar video game retailer GameStop, a target on the “wallstreetbets” Reddit chat room, soared another 134% Wednesday, pushing its January gains to a whopping 1,744%. AMC Entertainment surged over 300% Wednesday alone, experiencing its highest volume ever.

GameStop fell 23% in extended trading, while AMC Entertainment dropped 38%. Other highly shorted names that had rallied this week, including Bed Bath & Beyond and National Beverage, also fell after hours.

Facebook stock remained relatively flat in after-hours trading after the company warned that a reversal in pandemic trends could hurt its advertising business. The social media company beat on top and bottom line for the fourth quarter.

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Stocks Fall Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting Today: Live Market Updates

Credit…Al Drago for The New York Times

The Federal Reserve meets in Washington on Wednesday, and while it is widely expected to leave interest rates near zero while continuing to buy about $120 billion in government-backed bonds each month, Chair Jerome H. Powell could stage an interesting news conference afterward.

Mr. Powell answered many of the urgent monetary policy questions of the day at an appearance on Jan. 14, making it clear that interest rates will rise “no time soon” and that the Fed will “let the world know” when it is starting to think about slowing down its mass Treasury and mortgage-debt bond buying.

“His goal will be to preserve the status quo — it’s too soon for the message to change,” Roberto Perli and Benson Durham at Cornerstone Macro wrote in a note previewing the meeting.

That could leave the door open for a suite of more thematic questions. The Fed’s policy statement comes out at 2 p.m., and the webcast question-and-answer session starts at 2:30.

Mr. Powell could be asked to give his assessment on whether a bubble is building in stocks, digital currency, house prices — everything, basically — and, if so, what the Fed can do about it. Low interest rates and bond-buying have the effect of pushing investors into riskier assets, and the Fed underlined in its revised policy framework last year that it keeps a wary eye on financial risks.

The Fed chair might also need to take on the question of inequality. As asset prices boom, the wealthy people who disproportionately own stocks are becoming paper millionaires, billionaires, multibillionaires and so on even as the working class struggles with high pandemic-era unemployment and cars continue to line up at food banks. Mr. Powell has typically pushed back on the idea that monetary policy — which also lowers unemployment and sets the stage for higher wages in the longer run — can be boiled down to having one simple effect on income and wealth distribution.

Finally, Mr. Powell might face queries about his own future. He was appointed chair by President Donald J. Trump, and his four-year term expires in early 2022. It is unclear whether President Biden will reappoint him or whether Mr. Powell will seek another term.

Credit…Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Why is Wall Street obsessed with GameStop, the video game chain that until recently was known for middling performance? The company’s stock has soared to scarcely believable levels — its market capitalization is now more than $20 billion — thanks to an army of small traders spurred on by a Reddit message board, the DealBook newsletter explains.

Traders on the Reddit message board, WallStreetBets, a community known for irreverent market discussions, made GameStock their cause du jour and rushed to buy out-of-the-money GameStop options, a bet on the company’s share price rising in the future. (A sample comment on the board: “PUT YOUR LIFTOFF DIAPERS ON ITS ABOUT TO START.”) Both Tesla’s Elon Musk and the billionaire tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya also egged on the crowd via Twitter.

The frenzy has forced market makers who sold the options to buy the underlying shares to hedge their risk. As more traders snap up options, the brokers have to buy up more shares. That squeeze is driving the astounding rise in the company’s stock price, which began the year at $19 and opened for trading on Wednesday at around $350, double the previous day’s close.

Gabe Plotkin, the hedge fund trader whose Melvin Capital was shorting GameStop — and who recently raised a $2.75 billion bailout from Citadel and his former boss, Steve Cohen, amid the short squeeze — confirmed to CNBC on Wednesday that he had exited his position. Though Mr. Plotkin’s other short bets appear to be suffering, possibly because they are being targeted by traders (Melvin and Mr. Plotkin are often pilloried on the message boards), he said that his firm had plenty of capital.

Officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission and elsewhere are closely watching internet chat rooms for signs of potential market manipulation, though they can do only so much without clear signs of fraud. If a big group of traders simply decides to buy options on a stock at the same time, out in the open, for the heck of it, proving malfeasance may be difficult.

  • The S&P 500 fell more than 1.5 percent in early trading on Wednesday, ahead of the latest policy decision from the Federal Reserve and several earnings reports from large technology companies.

  • The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates at low levels and continue its large bond-buying program. But investors will be eager to hear what the Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, might say about concerns asset bubbles are building in markets.

  • Microsoft rose 0.7 percent after the company said profits were up 33 percent in the past quarter because of the increase in demand for its cloud services while so many people are working from home. Apple, Facebook and Tesla are among companies scheduled to report their results later Wednesday.

  • Boeing fell more than 3 percent after it reported a record loss of $11.9 billion for the year. The company recorded a $6.5 billion charge related to the development of the 777X, a wide-body plane that had been slated for delivery, next year but the company now expects to arrive in 2023.

  • GameStop’s shares continued to rocket higher, doubling in early trading after Elon Musk tweeted “Gamestonk!!” and linked to Reddit’s “Wall Street Bets” forum, which has hyped up buying the stock. Shares in the video game retailer, had risen from $19 at the start of the year to $148 on Tuesday.

  • Small-scale traders are now looking for other companies to promote, especially those that might have a large short position against them (a bet that the stock’s price will fall). Movie-theater chain AMC’s shares rose more than 200 percent. BlackBerry has also appeared on the forum and its shares are up more than 20 percent after gaining 185 percent already this year.

  • The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped more than 1.5 percent Wednesday, with indexes falling in most countries. Europe’s vaccine rollout is struggling to ramp up amid supply issues, raising concerns about when an economic recovery will return. Recent surveys has shown business confidence dropping in Germany and France, the eurozone’s two largest economies.

  • On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its outlook for the global economy this year but the recovery is expected to be uneven. The Washington-based institution downgraded its forecast for the eurozone because of the increase in coronavirus infections and lengthy lockdowns. It said the economy would grow 4.2 percent in 2021; three months ago it had predicted a 5.2 percent increase.

  • Shares in LVMH rose almost 2 percent in early trading after the luxury goods company’s earnings beat analysts’ expectations, particularly in the sales of its fashion and leather goods unit.

Credit…Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Boeing lost more than $11.9 billion last year, its worst year ever, as it struggled to overcome the crisis surrounding its 737 Max jet as it also endured the disastrous slowdown in global aviation caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The company’s bottom line suffered especially during the final three months of the year, during which Boeing reported a loss of more than $8.4 billion. In that quarter, the company recorded a $6.5 billion charge related to the development of the 777X, a wide-body plane that had been slated for delivery next year but the company now expects to arrive in 2023.

Over the course of the year, Boeing brought in more than $58 billion in revenue, which was down 24 percent from 2019.

In a letter to staff, Boeing’s president and chief executive, Dave Calhoun, described 2020 as “a year of profound societal and global disruption, which significantly impacted our industry.”

The financial results were announced on Wednesday morning, shortly after aviation regulators in Europe approved the 737 Max to fly again, joining counterparts in Brazil, Canada and the United States. The Federal Aviation Administration became the first regulator to allow the Max to return to service in November, ending a global ban that had been in place since March 2019, after 346 people were killed in two crashes involving the plane.

Five airlines have resumed Max service, racking up more than 2,700 flights, according to Boeing. In the United States, only American Airlines is flying the Max, though United Airlines is expected to start using the jet next month, followed in the second quarter by Southwest Airlines.

Boeing has started making deliveries and collecting payments on the Max again, a huge relief for its commercial airplane business, which rests heavily on the 737 line. Still, the steep decline in travel caused by the pandemic has hurt Boeing’s airline customers, muting hopes for a recovery this year.

Credit…Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times

Top Federal Reserve officials downplayed the chance that they would use their power as bank overseers to actively discourage investment in carbon-heavy companies, setting out a boundary line in an evolving conversation about what role the central bank should play in dealing with the fallout from global warming.

“We would note that it has long been the policy of the Federal Reserve to not dictate to banks what lawful industries they can and cannot serve, as those business decisions should be made solely by each institution,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed’s chair, and Randal K. Quarles, the vice chairman for supervision, wrote in a letter this month.

Their comments came in response to a letter sent by Representative Andy Barr, Republican of Kentucky, and several of his colleagues that raised concerns about the central bank’s recent attention to climate change.

Mr. Powell and Mr. Quarles said the Fed makes sure the institutions it oversees are well-prepared to handle risks they face, including climate-related risks. But they indicated that they were not rolling out climate stress tests or using their supervisory powers to pressure banks to meet climate-related goals — big concerns among Republicans.

“We have seen banks make politically motivated and public relations-focused decisions to limit credit availability to these industries,” the lawmakers said in their letter, specifically referencing coal, oil and gas. “It is possible that the introduction of climate change stress tests could perpetuate this trend, allowing regulated banks to cite negative impacts on their supervisory tests as an excuse to defund or divest from these crucial industries.”

The Fed said its research into climate financial risks was in the “early stages,” and noted that directly addressing climate change was not one of its congressional mandates. America’s central bank is behind its peers when in coming up with a framework for dealing with climate risks.

Credit…Anna Moneymaker for The New York Times

The restarted Paycheck Protection Program allows hard-hit small businesses to get a second government-backed relief loan, but thousands of business owners who are trying to apply have been ensnared by what the Biden administration said are significant errors in the program’s loan records.

P.P.P. loans are guaranteed by the government but made by banks and other lenders. For months, lawmakers and government watchdogs — including the Small Business Administration’s inspector general — have raised alarms about signs of fraud and mistakes that allowed potentially ineligible borrowers to obtain billions of dollars from the aid program.

Those reviewing the program’s loan records, which were released in December after a court ordered they be made public, have also noted that they are rife with errors, like inaccurate loan amounts or loans that were canceled before being disbursed.

The S.B.A. said on Tuesday that it had found “anomalies,” which it described as “mostly data mismatches and eligibility concerns,” in 4.7 percent of the 5.2 million loans made through the program in its initial round of lending, which ended in August.

Those errors have complicated efforts by some borrowers to obtain second-round loans, which the agency began approving two weeks ago, using $284 billion in fresh funding provided by Congress last month to restart the relief program. The S.B.A. said it would provide lenders with additional guidance and resources for resolving troubled cases.

The problems came to light in part because of new fraud checks the agency imposed before it began approving applications for the new funding round.

The agency “is committed to making sure stringent steps are put in place on the front-end and compliance checks address issues more efficiently moving forward so we are ensuring fair and equitable access to small businesses in every community,” said Tami Perriello, the agency’s acting administrator. (President Biden’s nominee to lead the agency, Isabel Guzman, is awaiting her confirmation hearing.)

The S.B.A. said Tuesday that it had approved 400,000 loans, totaling $35 billion, in the new lending round.

Lenders said the new process has generally been working, with some glitches. Some banks have had high numbers of applications rejected because of formatting issues and other technical challenges in getting through the S.B.A.’s new automated vetting system, said Dan O’Malley, the chief executive of Numerated, a software company that is handling P.P.P. applications on behalf of more than 100 lenders.

Shelly Ross, the owner of Tales of The Kitty, a cat-sitting business in San Francisco, said she applied last week for a second loan, but was caught in a holding queue. She tried three other lenders, with results ranging from no response to cryptic replies telling her she did not qualify.

“I’m ready to bang my head against a wall,” she said. But others have had better luck: Ms. Ross said a friend of hers got a quick approval on her own loan application through PayPal.

Credit…Landon Nordeman for The New York Times

The hotel industry, where occupancy rates are still down 30 percent from a year ago, is getting in on the ghost kitchen trend.

Ghost kitchens, also called digital kitchens, are cooking facilities that produce food only for delivery or takeout. Demand for the concept is booming, Debra Kamin reports in The New York Times.

The pandemic has opened the business model to more entrepreneurs. To turn his chicken cutlet sandwich concept into a business, Richard Zaro started renting space in July at the Four Points by Sheraton Midtown near Times Square, paying $6,000 a month for a fully outfitted catering kitchen. Average restaurant start-up costs for brick-and-mortar locations, in comparison, can run from $200,000 to more than $1 million.

Within four months, he had generated enough revenue — and created a large enough base of loyal customers — to move to a stand-alone location. His new business, Cutlets, opened in a former Tender Greens restaurant near Gramercy Park on Dec. 1, and has plans to expand.

Mr. Zaro found his rented kitchen space through Use Kitch, an online commercial kitchen marketplace that likens itself to an Airbnb for the restaurant industry.

Testing from a base at a Times Square hotel was the ultimate risk reduction, Mr. Zaro said, adding that the hotel benefited, too: “It was nice for them to have incoming revenue.”



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