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World

Explainer: What to expect as Malaysia’s split election leaves scramble to form govt

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KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 20 (Reuters) – Malaysia’s political leaders were scrambling to form a coalition government on Sunday after an election produced an unprecedented hung parliament, with no group able to claim a majority.

Longtime opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim and former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin each said they could form a government with support from other parties, whom they did not identify. Muhyiddin said he hoped to conclude talks by Sunday afternoon, although negotiations could take days.

Here is what is happening and what to expect:

WHAT HAPPENED?

Anwar’s multi-ethnic Pakatan Harapan coalition won 82 seats in the lower house, short of the 112 needed for a majority but ahead of Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional alliance with 73 and Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s Barisan Nasional with 30.

Muhyiddin’s alliance, which includes an Islamist party that has touted sharia Islamic law for the Southeast Asian nation, emerged as a third major bloc, dividing votes more than had been expected.

It made inroads in strongholds of Barisan, whose United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) – long Malaysia’s dominant political force – made its worst showing ever.

WHAT NEXT?

Analysts say the most likely government will again be a coalition of Muhyiddin’s bloc, Barisan and another group. But a minority government is possible if neither Anwar nor Muhyiddin can cobble together a majority.

Muhyiddin, who said he is open to working with any party but Anwar’s, said on Sunday he would discuss partnerships with regional parties in Sabah and Sarawak states on Borneo island.

Anwar did not say whom he would work with. In an interview with Reuters this month, he ruled out partnering with Muhyiddin’s and Ismail’s coalitions, citing fundamental differences.

Muhyiddin and Ismail’s coalition prioritise interests of the ethnic-Malay majority, while Anwar’s is multicultural. Race and religion are divisive issues in Malaysia, where the mostly Muslim Malays comprise the majority, with minorities of ethnic Chinese and Indians.

KING’S ROLE

King Al-Sultan Abdullah could potentially pick the next prime minister.

The monarch has a largely ceremonial role, but the constitution empowers him to appoint as prime minister a lawmaker who he thinks can command a majority in parliament.

Malaysian kings – the post rotates among the sultans of the states – have rarely exercised that power, but they have become more influential in recent years amid the political wrangling.

In 2020, when the government of veteran leader Mahathir Mohamad collapsed, King Al-Sultan chose Muhyiddin as premier after interviewing all 222 lawmakers to decide who had majority support. When Muhyiddin’s bloc also collapsed, he chose Ismail.

Muhyiddin said on Sunday he had received instructions from the palace on forming a government but did not disclose what they were. Anwar said he would submit a letter to the king detailing his support.

IMPLICATIONS?

Political instability is expected to continue for Malaysia, which has seen three prime ministers in as many years due to power struggles.

The country is adapting to the diminishing power of the UMNO and the Barisan coalition, which had ruled uninterrupted for 60 years from independence until 2018.

The next coalition will not have a convincing majority and could be plagued with more infighting, hurting the economy.

Voters, frustrated with the instability, may bristle at a new government if it includes the losing parties.

Reporting by Mei Mei Chu; Editing by A. Ananthalakshmi and William Mallard

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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US

Explainer: What legal problems does U.S. presidential candidate Trump face?

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Nov 15 (Reuters) – Former President Donald Trump, who on Tuesday announced he will run again for the White House in 2024, faces a series of investigations and lawsuits.

MISSING GOVERNMENT RECORDS

The U.S. Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation of Trump for retaining government records, including some marked as classified, after leaving office in January 2021.

The FBI seized 11,000 documents from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida in a court-approved Aug. 8 search. About 100 documents were marked as classified, and some were designated top secret, the highest level of classification.

Trump, a Republican, has accused the Justice Department of engaging in a partisan witch hunt.

A special master, Senior U.S. District Judge Raymond Dearie, is reviewing the seized documents to determine whether any are protected by executive privilege, as Trump has claimed.

Executive privilege is a legal doctrine under which a president can keep certain documents or information secret.

The Justice Department has asked a federal appeals court to end that review and restore its access to unclassified materials taken in the search, arguing that both measures are hindering the criminal investigation.

NEW YORK ATTORNEY GENERAL CIVIL LAWSUIT

New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a civil lawsuit filed in September that her office uncovered more than 200 examples of misleading asset valuations by Trump and the Trump Organization between 2011 and 2021.

James, a Democrat, accused Trump of inflating his net worth by billions of dollars to obtain lower interest rates on loans and get better insurance coverage.

A New York judge ordered that an independent monitor be appointed to oversee the Trump Organization before the case goes to trial.

James is seeking to permanently bar Trump and his children Donald Jr., Eric and Ivanka Trump from running companies in New York state, and to prevent them and his company from buying new properties and taking out new loans in the state for five years.

James also wants the defendants to hand over about $250 million that she says was obtained through fraud.

Trump has called the attorney general’s lawsuit a witch hunt. A lawyer for Trump has called James’ claims meritless.

James said her probe also uncovered evidence of criminal wrongdoing, which she referred to federal prosecutors and the tax-collecting Internal Revenue Service for investigation.

NEW YORK CRIMINAL PROBE

The Trump Organization is on trial on New York tax fraud charges, in a criminal case brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

The company, which operates hotels, golf courses and other real estate around the world, has pleaded not guilty to three tax fraud charges and six other counts. It could face up to $1.6 million in fines.

Trump is not charged with wrongdoing.

Allen Weisselberg, the company’s former chief financial officer, has pleaded guilty and is required to testify against the Trump Organization as part of his plea agreement. He is also a defendant in James’ civil lawsuit.

DEFAMATION CASE

E. Jean Carroll, a former Elle magazine writer, sued Trump for defamation in 2019 after he denied her allegation that he raped her in the 1990s in a New York City department store. Trump accused her of lying to drum up sales for a book.

Trump appeared for a deposition in the case on Oct. 19, according to his and Carroll’s lawyers.

Trump has argued that he is shielded from Carroll’s lawsuit by a federal law that immunizes government employees from defamation claims.

The Manhattan-based 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in September said Trump was a federal employee when he called Carroll a liar, but left open the question of whether he was acting as president when he made the statement.

A Washington, D.C., appeals court will consider that question in oral arguments scheduled for Jan. 10, 2023.

Carroll also plans to sue Trump for battery and intentional infliction of emotional distress under New York state law, even if the defamation lawsuit is dismissed.

U.S. CAPITOL ATTACK

A House of Representatives committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault by Trump supporters on the U.S. Capitol is investigating whether he broke the law in actions taken to try to overturn his 2020 election defeat. Rioters sought to block Congress from certifying the election results.

In October, Trump was subpoenaed by the committee to testify under oath and provide documents.

Committee vice chair Liz Cheney, a Republican, has said the committee could make referrals to the Justice Department seeking criminal charges against Trump.

Only the Justice Department can decide whether to charge Trump with federal crimes. The panel is expected to issue written findings in the coming weeks.

Trump has called the panel’s investigation a politically motivated sham.

GEORGIA ELECTION TAMPERING PROBE

A special grand jury was empanelled in May for a Georgia prosecutor’s inquiry into Trump’s alleged efforts to influence that state’s 2020 election results.

The investigation focuses in part on a phone call Trump made to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, on Jan. 2, 2021. Trump asked Raffensperger to “find” enough votes needed to overturn Trump’s election loss in Georgia.

Legal experts said Trump may have violated at least three Georgia criminal election laws: conspiracy to commit election fraud, criminal solicitation to commit election fraud and intentional interference with performance of election duties.

Trump could argue that his discussions were constitutionally protected free speech.

In a separate lawsuit, a California federal judge said on Oct. 19 that Trump knowingly made false voter fraud claims in a Georgia election lawsuit, citing emails the judge reviewed.

Reporting by Luc Cohen in New York and Jacqueline Thomsen in Washington; Additional reporting by Jonathan Stempel; Editing by Ross Colvin, Noeleen Walder, Will Dunham and Daniel Wallis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Luc Cohen

Thomson Reuters

Reports on the New York federal courts. Previously worked as a correspondent in Venezuela and Argentina.

Jacqueline Thomsen

Thomson Reuters

Jacqueline Thomsen, based in Washington, D.C., covers legal news related to policy, the courts and the legal profession. Follow her on Twitter at @jacq_thomsen and email her at jacqueline.thomsen@thomsonreuters.com.

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World

Explainer: Why Venezuela’s refugee exodus to the U.S. has been accelerating

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Oct 18 (Reuters) – U.S. and Mexican authorities recently announced a new policy that would expel Venezuelans entering the U.S. land border back to Mexico, but allow up to 24,000 people from the country to apply for humanitarian entry into the United States by air.

As a result of the new policy, thousands of Venezuelans believed to be en route to the United States are now stranded between the two countries during a year when Venezuelans are arriving at the U.S. border in record numbers.

WHY WERE THE NEW MEASURES PUT IN PLACE?

The measures respond in part to political pressure on U.S. President Joe Biden to curb record numbers of illegal crossings at the Mexico-U.S. border. Venezuelans have been one of the largest groups of migrants involved in such crossings, in part because Washington granted temporary protection status last year to those who were on U.S. soil. Deporting Venezuelans is also more complicated than with migrants of other nationalities because the two countries broke diplomatic relations in 2019, making it difficult to organize deportation flights.

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More than 150,000 Venezuelans were apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border between October 2021 and August 2022, compared with nearly 48,000 in fiscal-year 2021, according to U.S. government data. In September, over 33,000 Venezuelan individuals were encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border – more than the number of unique crossers from Mexico and more than immigrants from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras combined, according to U.S. government data.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW TO VENEZUELANS IN TRANSIT TO THE UNITED STATES?

Those in transit may attempt to reach the United States despite the near certainty that they will be sent back to Mexico. Mexican authorities so far have given many of these individuals a deadline of no more than two weeks to leave the country. It is unclear where Venezuelans waiting in Mexico will stay, as Mexico’s migrant shelter system is often overwhelmed.

Some may return to Venezuela, while others could settle down in different Latin American countries, where Venezuelan migrants have in some cases faced discrimination, limited job opportunities and restrictions on their migratory status.

Half of the Venezuelan refugee and migrant population across Latin America and the Caribbean cannot afford three meals a day and lacks access to housing, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), forcing many to resort to sex work or begging.

WHO CAN APPLY FOR THE NEW U.S. PROGRAM?

Venezuelans who meet the U.S. requirements may apply for the recently announced U.S. program. Among the requirements is having a U.S.-based supporter and holding a valid passport. The cost of a passport in Venezuela is $200, nearly ten times the country’s minimum wage.

Maria Victoria, 8, cries because she wants to see her father who is in the United States, during a protest on the banks of the Rio Bravo river, after Venezuelan migrants were expelled from the U.S. with their families and sent back to Mexico under Title 42, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico October 18, 2022. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez

Only 1% of 1,591 migrants who left Venezuela between June and August held a passport, according to the Observatory of Social Investigations, a rights group.

WHAT TRIGGERED THE VENEZUELAN EXODUS?

Under late President Hugo Chavez, who died in 2013, the country with the world’s largest oil reserves weathered corruption and inflation.

Then in 2014, Venezuela’s economy buckled as global oil prices tumbled, and living conditions further deteriorated as stringent price controls created widespread shortages. Products began to disappear from store shelves while black markets thrived with goods ranging from cooking oil to corn flour.

In 2018, inflation in Venezuela exceeded 1 million percent. Medicines for conditions from headaches to cancer were unavailable.

WHY ARE VENEZUELANS STILL MIGRATING?

Despite some improvements following a 2019 opening of the economy that included an informal dollarization, most Venezuelans still struggle to afford basic goods and services. Efforts by the government of Chavez’s successor, Nicolas Maduro, to ease economic restrictions have alleviated shortages and fueled consumption in high-income brackets, but left the vast majority of the population making wages that fall well short of the cost of living.

The monthly minimum wage in the OPEC-member nation is around $15 while the price of a basket of goods covering the monthly needs of a family of five was around $370 at the end of September, according to the nongovernmental Venezuelan Finance Observatory.

Even in the commerce and services sector of relatively wealthy Caracas, employees make an average of only around $130 a month. Meanwhile in the public sector, which employs some 2.2 million, the average monthly salary is about $20 to $30.

Economists say at least 30% of the population has not benefited from the new economic measures.

Remittances to Venezuelans from relatives in the United States or elsewhere help but are insufficient for most. Just one-fourth of Venezuelan families receive remittances, averaging only $70 a month, according to Caracas-based consultancy Anova.

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Reporting by Vivian Sequera in Caracas and Sarah Kinosian in Mexico City
Editing by Matthew Lewis

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Business

Explainer: The G7’s price cap on Russian oil begins to take shape

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A model of 3D printed oil barrels is seen in front of displayed stock graph going down in this illustration taken, December 1, 2021. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

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WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) – The Group of Seven countries is working to cap the price of Russian oil in an attempt to limit Moscow’s ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine, a plan analysts say could work in the long term but might boost oil prices in coming months.

Officials in G7 countries, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, say the unprecedented measure, set to begin Dec. 5, will cut the price Russia receives for oil without reducing its petroleum exports to world consumers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin could push back, causing stress in oil markets even as the plan comes together.

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Below are questions about the price cap and challenges it faces.

WHO’S IN THE PRICE CAP COALITION?

The G7 wealthy nations — the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada — and the EU are hammering out details of the plan. The G7 wants to enlist other countries, including India and China, which have been snapping up heavily-discounted oil from Russia since its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow has managed to maintain its revenues through those increased crude sales to India and China.

But even if India and China don’t join, a cap could help force down prices for Asia and other consumers. U.S. Treasury Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Ben Harris said on Sept. 9 that if China negotiates a separate 30%-40% discount on Russian oil because of the price cap “we consider that a win.”

The consensus on the price cap level will be reached with the aid of a “rotating lead coordinator,” the U.S. Treasury Department said in guidance issued on Friday suggesting that countries in the coalition will have a temporary leadership role as the plan proceeds.

WHAT’S THE LEVEL OF THE PRICE CAP?

It will likely be weeks before the price of Russian crude oil and two oil products will be decided, Harris said.

Washington-based ClearView Energy Partners has said officials have been talking about a $40-$60 per barrel range for crude. The upper end of that range is consistent with historical prices for Russian crude, while the lower end is closer to Russia’s marginal production cost, analysts say. read more

Coalition members with long economic and military relations with Russia could push for a higher cap, while a limit too low could take market share away from Saudi Arabia and other oil producers. “The level will be determined by both quantitative and qualitative reasons,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.

Russian crude is priced at a discount to the international Brent benchmark and the G7 wants to keep that spread wide, to keep down Russian oil revenue.

However, achieving a wide spread could mean higher prices for Western consumers as Russia is the world’s second largest crude exporter, after Saudi Arabia.

WHAT DOES THE G7 EXPECT FROM MARITIME SERVICES?

The plan agreed by the G7 calls for participating countries to deny Western-dominated services including insurance, finance, brokering and navigation to oil cargoes priced above the cap. read more

To secure those services, petroleum buyers would make “attestations” to providers saying they bought Russian petroleum at or below the cap.

Maritime services providers will not be held liable for false pricing information provided by buyers and sellers of Russian petroleum, the U.S. Treasury said. read more

G7 officials believe the plan will work because the London-based International Group of Protection & Indemnity Clubs provides marine liability cover for about 95% of the global oil shipping fleet.

Traders point to parallel fleets that can handle Russian oil using Russian and other non-Western insurance that could be used to sidestep enforcement efforts. read more

It remains uncertain how many ports around the world will accept Russian-insured ships.

Craig Kennedy, an associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Eurasian and Russian Studies, said the G7 has long term leverage because Moscow is constrained by a small tanker fleet versus the vast scale of exports it needs to get out. If Russia doesn’t want to sell at the cap, it may have to shut in production, which could impose long-term costs on its oilfields.

HOW COULD RUSSIA FIGHT BACK?

Putin has said Russia will withhold exports to countries that enforce the cap, and fears about the threat could cause petroleum markets to rise before December.

Higher prices could also be risky for U.S. President Joe Biden ahead of midterm elections in November when his fellow Democrats hope to keep control of Congress.

Some analysts worry Moscow could respond by taking actions beyond Russia’s borders before the cap takes effect.

“My biggest concern is I think Putin is going to make it very, very painful on the way to Dec. 5,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told a Brookings Institution event on Sept. 9. “They also have assets in other producing countries, whether it be Libya, whether it be Iraq, and they have an ability to cause some problems in other producer states.”

HOW WILL THE CAP BE ENFORCED?

The U.S. Treasury warned service companies to be vigilant about red flags indicating potential evasion or fraud by Russian oil buyers. Those could include evidence of deceptive shipping practices, refusal to provide requested price information, or excessively high services costs. read more

Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said on Friday that those who falsify documentation or otherwise hide the true origin or price of Russian oil would face consequences under the domestic law of jurisdictions implementing the price cap.

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Reporting by Timothy Gardner; Additional reporting by David Lawder and London energy team; Editing by Daniel Wallis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Health

Explainer: Why has polio been found in London, New York and Jerusalem, and how dangerous is it?

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LONDON, Aug 15 (Reuters) – Polio, a deadly disease that used to paralyze tens of thousands of children every year, is spreading in London, New York and Jerusalem for the first time in decades, spurring catch-up vaccination campaigns. read more

DREADED DISEASE

Polio terrified parents around the world for the first half of the 20th century. Affecting mainly children under five, it is often asymptomatic but can also cause symptoms including fever and vomiting. Around one in 200 infections leads to irreversible paralysis, and among those patients, up to 10% die.

There is no cure, but since a vaccine was found in the 1950s, polio is entirely preventable. Globally, the wild form of the disease has almost disappeared.

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Afghanistan and Pakistan are now the only countries where the highly infectious disease, spread mainly through contact with faecal matter, remains endemic. But this year, imported cases were also found in Malawi and Mozambique, the first in those countries since the 1990s. read more

DIFFERENT STRAINS

There are two main forms of poliovirus. Alongside the wild-type outlined above, there are also rare cases of what is known as vaccine-derived polio.

It is this second form detected in wastewater in the British capital, London, and in New York in the United States, with one case of paralysis reported in New York state. Genetically similar virus has also been found in Jerusalem, Israel, and scientists are working to understand the link, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) said.

Big Ben and The London Eye are seen on a summer evening in London, Britain, June 15, 2022. REUTERS/Yann Tessier

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While vaccine-derived polio is almost unheard of in the above locations, it is a known – albeit rare – threat in other countries, causing outbreaks every year, including 415 cases in Nigeria in 2021.

It stems from the use of an oral polio vaccine containing weakened live virus. After children are vaccinated, they shed virus in their faeces for a few weeks. In under-vaccinated communities, this can then spread and mutate back to a harmful version of the virus.

While countries including the Britain and the United States no longer use this live vaccine, others do – particularly to stop outbreaks – which allows for global spread, particularly as people began to travel again after COVID-19, experts said.

WHY NOW

But experts agree that the major driver behind both vaccine-derived and wild polio outbreaks remains under-vaccinated populations, said Derek Ehrhardt, global polio lead at the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Vaccine hesitancy was a growing problem before the pandemic, then COVID-19 caused the worst disruption to routine immunization in a generation, according to the United Nations. read more

In 2020, there were 1,081 vaccine-derived polio cases, around three times as many as the previous year. In 2022 so far, there have been 177 cases, after major efforts to get polio vaccination campaigns back on track.

But the wastewater findings are still a wake-up call for parents with one key message, according to scientists around the world, including David Heymann, epidemiologist at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine: Protect children by getting them vaccinated.

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Reporting by Jennifer Rigby
Editing by Mark Heinrich

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Health

Explainer: Monkeypox in the U.S.: Where could it spread next?

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A person arrives to receive a monkeypox vaccination at the Northwell Health Immediate Care Center at Fire Island-Cherry Grove, in New York, U.S., July 15, 2022. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo

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CHICAGO, Aug 7 (Reuters) – The United States declared monkeypox a public health emergency last week, an effort to bolster the U.S. response to contain the outbreak.

The virus continues to be largely transmitted among gay and bisexual men, but experts say the disease could spill over into other populations, especially due to vaccine shortages. Monkeypox is spread by contact with puss-filled sores and is rarely fatal.

Here is the state of monkeypox now and some other the populations U.S. experts believe may be at risk:

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WHO IS GETTING MONKEYPOX NOW?

Last month, the World Health Organization declared monkeypox a global public health emergency. So far, 80 countries where the virus is not endemic have reported 26,500 cases of monkeypox, according to a Reuters tally. read more

In the United States, 99.1% of U.S. monkeypox cases occurred among those assigned the male sex at birth as of July 25, according to a technical report by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Among male patients, 99% reported having sexual contact with other men.

About 38% of cases occurred in among white, non-Hispanic males. Another 26% were in Black males and 32% in Hispanic males.

The pattern of sexual transmission in men is not typical. In Africa, where monkeypox has been circulating since the 1970s, 60% of cases are in men, and 40% occur in women. read more

One reason may be that the virus appears to be “very efficiently transmitted through anal receptive intercourse and to some degree oral sex,” said Dr. Celine Gounder, an infectious disease epidemiologist and an editor-at-large at Kaiser Health News.

WHO ELSE IS AT RISK?

Although the current explosion of cases has occurred in men, experts say there is no biological reason the virus will remain largely within the community of men who have sex with men.

“We certainly know it’s going to spread to family members and to other non-male partners that people have,” said Dr. Jay Varma, director of the Cornell Center for Pandemic Prevention and Response. He said the virus could also spread through massage parlors or spas.

The real question, he said, is whether it spreads as efficiently in those groups as it does among close sexual networks of men who have sex with men.

Experts point to the way HIV spread as a possible indicator for where the virus will go next.

“My greatest fear is that as we try to contain this, it’s going to seep along the fractures in our social geography and go where HIV did, and that’s going into communities of color in the rural South,” said Dr. Gregg Gonsalves, an associate professor of epidemiology at Yale University and a leading HIV/AIDS activist.

Those are places with limited infrastructure for testing, vaccines and treatments.

Gounder is especially concerned about infections among Black women, who account for the largest share of new HIV infections in the United States, and already suffer significantly higher rates of maternal complications and deaths.

WHO ELSE MIGHT BE AT RISK?

Other at-risk settings include college dormitories, health clubs and sports teams.

Gounder is aware of some sports leagues that are preparing for possible infections, noting that sports such as wrestling involve close skin-to-skin contact.

Wrestling, football, rugby and other sports teams have previously had outbreaks of the superbug MRSA, according to the CDC.

“I think it is something we need to be thinking about and prepared for,” she said.

Employers may also need to start preparing. Gounder said some theaters in New York, for example, are considering how they might protect their workers from possible monkeypox infections through contact with shared costumes.

“We’re still in the beginnings of that, but I am encouraged to see that some are already thinking about that.”

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Reporting by Julie Steenhuysen; Editing by Caroline Humer and Josie Kao

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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World

Explainer: Will Russia use nuclear weapons?

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May 6 (Reuters) – At the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin obliquely raised the possibility of a nuclear strike against anyone who intervened in the conflict.

Below are some of the key issues surrounding the possibility – viewed as remote by many analysts and Western diplomats – that Putin might actually use nuclear weapons.

WHAT HAS RUSSIA SAID ABOUT NUCLEAR ARMS IN THE UKRAINE WAR?

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In a speech announcing the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Putin gave a veiled but unmistakable warning that if the West intervened in what he has called a “special military operation” he could use nuclear weapons in response.

“No matter who tries to stand in our way or … create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history,” he said according to a Kremlin translation.

Three days later on Feb. 27, Putin ordered his military command to put Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces on high alert, citing what he called aggressive statements by NATO leaders and Western economic sanctions against Moscow. read more

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, a veteran diplomat, has also talked about the risk of nuclear war, though he said Moscow was doing its utmost to prevent one.

“I would not want to elevate those risks artificially. Many would like that. The danger is serious, real. And we must not underestimate it,” he said last week, prompting the U.S. State Department to call his remarks “the height of irresponsibility”.

While Washington has not seen any actions suggesting Russian nuclear forces are on high alert, experts and Western officials warned against dismissing the comments as bluster given the risk Putin could use nuclear arms if he felt cornered in Ukraine or if NATO entered the war.

WHAT HAS THE WEST SAID ABOUT PUTIN’S VEILED THREATS?

U.S. officials quickly called Putin’s comments about putting Russian nuclear forces on high alert dangerous, escalatory and totally unacceptable, while NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg criticized them as aggressive and irresponsible.

However, U.S. officials also immediately made clear they had seen no signs Russian forces had changed their nuclear posture and the U.S. military said it saw no need to alter its own.

On Feb. 28, U.S. President Joe Biden told Americans not to worry about a nuclear war with Russia. Responding to a shouted question about whether U.S. citizens should be concerned about a nuclear war erupting, Biden said “no.” read more

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF RUSSIA USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS?

Biden’s comment appeared to reflect a widespread view among U.S. experts and Western officials that the chances of Russia using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war are extremely low.

FILE PHOTO – Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Alexander Shokhin in Moscow, Russia March 2, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS

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“Since 1945, every leader of a nuclear power … has rejected the use of nuclear weapons in battle for excellent reasons,” Gideon Rose, the former editor of Foreign Affairs magazine, wrote last week.

“Putin will be no exception, acting not from a soft heart but a hard head. He knows that extraordinary retaliation and universal opprobrium would follow, with no remotely comparable strategic upsides to justify them,” he added.

The main aim of Russia’s elliptical threats of a nuclear strike seems to be to deter Washington and its NATO allies from direct involvement in the war, experts and Western diplomats said.

“They are not credible,” said one Western diplomat who like others spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “He is trying to scare the West.”

HOW MIGHT RUSSIA USE A NUCLEAR WEAPON?

While Western nations have poured arms into Ukraine since the invasion, Biden last year said putting U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine was “not on the table.” read more

The United States and its allies have no desire to get into a conventional shooting war with Russia, let alone do anything that might spark a nuclear exchange.

If Russia were to use nuclear weapons, experts saw a range of possibilities, from a detonation over the Black Sea or an uninhabited part of Ukraine to demonstrate its capabilities to a strike against a Ukrainian military target or on a city.

However, using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine could endanger Russian troops and draw radioactive blowback on Russia itself.

HOW MIGHT THE WEST RESPOND?

Some analysts said Washington could opt for a conventional military response rather than a proportional nuclear counter-strike, which could harm U.S. allies or lead to a further nuclear escalation endangering Europe or the U.S. homeland.

“What I would suggest instead is that the United States and NATO respond with overwhelming conventional military, political and diplomatic force to further isolate Russia and to seek to end the conflict without escalation to all-out nuclear war,” said Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association, a nonprofit group that seeks to educate the public about arms control.

HOW MIGHT A RUSSIAN STRIKE CHANGE THE NUCLEAR LANDSCAPE?

NATO might seek to redesign its U.S.-built ballistic missile shield in Poland and Romania to shoot down Russian rockets in future. NATO has long said the current design aims to counter missiles from Iran, Syria and rogue actors in the Middle East.

It remains unclear whether a Russian strike might make other nuclear states such as India and Pakistan more likely to use such weapons. If it led to global condemnation, experts said this could reduce the chances of others using nuclear weapons.

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Reporting by Arshad Mohammed in Saint Paul, Minn. and by Robin Emmott in Brussels; Additional reporting by Sabine Siebold in Brussels; Editing by Mary Milliken and Andrew Heavens

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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World

Explainer: What you need to know about Finland and Sweden’s path to NATO membership

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Norwegian and Swedish army medics simulate the evacuation of a field hospital as part of military exercise called “Cold Response 2022”, gathering around 30,000 troops from NATO member countries plus Finland and Sweden, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in Setermoen in the Artic Circle, Norway, March 25 2022. REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo

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  • Ukraine war changed public opinion in Finland and Sweden
  • Coming fortnight crucial in decision on joining NATO
  • A question of when they will apply, rather than if
  • Both want security guarantees in any transition period

HELSINKI/STOCKHOLM, May 3 (Reuters) – Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden have been considering applying for membership of the NATO military alliance, which would mark a major policy shift for the Nordic region.

Here is the latest about the process and the key points under discussion:

WHAT ARE THE KEY STEPS AHEAD?

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The coming days are crucial. On May 12, Finland will decide to apply for NATO membership, newspaper Iltalehti reported on Sunday, citing anonymous Finnish government sources. read more

It would come in two steps, Iltalehti reported. President Sauli Niinisto would first announce his approval for Finland to join, followed by parliamentary groups giving their approval for the application.

There would be no plenary vote in parliament but parliamentary leaders would express their groups’ decisions.

Reuters was not immediately able to confirm the report.

In Sweden, parliament is conducting a security policy review, including the pros and cons of joining the alliance, with the results due on May 13. There is already a majority in parliament in support of NATO membership.

In parallel, the ruling Social Democrats, the biggest party in every election for the past 100 years, will have an internal debate on May 9-12 on whether to drop long-standing opposition to NATO membership, with the party leadership to take a decision by May 24 at the latest. read more

If Finland applies, Sweden is likely to do the same, as it would not want to be the sole Nordic outsider. Other Nordic countries – Norway, Denmark and Iceland – joined the pact as founding members. Several recent polls suggest a majority of Swedes in favour – something never seen before Russia’s invasion. read more

Finland and Sweden would like to have some guarantees that NATO member nations would defend them during any transition period, when they would be applicants to the alliance, but not yet in.

Ratification can take a year, NATO diplomats say, as parliaments of all 30 NATO countries need to approve new members.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said the countries could join “quickly” and that he was sure arrangements could be found for the interim period. read more

The United States and Britain have promised Sweden “increased military presence, more in-depth military exercises and ‘strong political’ support from NATO countries” during a possible NATO application process, Swedish daily Aftonbladet reported. read more

Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto acknowledged filing a membership application by itself would not bring the two Nordic countries under the umbrella of NATO’s Article 5, which guarantees that an attack on one ally is an attack on all.

“But at the same time NATO member countries have an interest in that no security breaches would take place during the application period,” Haavisto said, adding that Finland could, for instance, hold enhanced military exercises with NATO members during that time. read more

Moscow has repeatedly warned of “serious consequences” if Finland and Sweden join NATO, saying it would have to strengthen its land, naval and air forces in the Baltic Sea, and raised the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons in the area. read more

Russia and Finland share a 1,300-km (810-mile) border. The Kola Peninsula, in Arctic northwest Russia pointing eastward from the border with Finland and Norway, is a “strategic bastion” Moscow considers key for its national security, and is also the home of the Russian Northern Fleet. Russia’s second biggest city, St. Petersburg, lies some 170 km from the border with Finland.

(This story corrects to clarify phrasing in paragraphs 5, 6 and final paragraph)

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Additional reporting by Robin Emmott in Brussels
Editing by Gwladys Fouche and Tomasz Janowski

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Explainer: What are NATO’s next steps if Russia invades Ukraine?

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Airmen from the 4th Fighter Wing at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, N.C. and the 48th Fighter Wing, Royal Air Force Lakenheath, England, arrive at Amari Air Base, Estonia, January 24, 2022. U.S. Air Force Photo/Staff Sgt. Megan Beatty/Handout via REUTERS

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BRUSSELS, Jan 27 (Reuters) – NATO allies are putting forces on standby and sending reinforcements to eastern Europe in response to Russia’s buildup of more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders.

Here are some of the dilemmas about NATO’s next steps.

WILL NATO COME TO UKRAINE’S DEFENCE?

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Not militarily. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and the alliance is not treaty-bound to defend it. U.S. President Joe Biden has said he will not send American or allied troops to fight Russia in Ukraine.

However, Kyiv is a close partner and was promised eventual membership of the alliance at a NATO summit in 2008.

For the moment, the 30-member North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is working with Ukraine to modernise its armed forces. Canada operates a training programme in Ukraine, while Denmark is also stepping up efforts to bring Ukraine’s military up to NATO standards. The alliance has also said it will help Ukraine defend against cyber attacks and is providing secure communications equipment for military command.

WHAT ABOUT ARMING UKRAINE?

The United States, Britain and the Baltic states are sending weapons to Ukraine, including anti-tank missiles, small arms and boats. Turkey has sold drones to Ukraine that the Ukrainian military has used in eastern Ukraine against Russian-backed separatists.

However, Germany is against sending arms to Ukraine. Berlin has instead promised a complete field hospital and the necessary training for Ukrainian troops to operate it, worth about $6 million.

SO WHY IS NATO PUTTING FORCES ON STANDBY?

The alliance is concerned about a potential spillover from any conflict between Russia and Ukraine, particularly in the Black Sea region, where Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and in the Baltic Sea.

The U.S. Department of Defense has put about 8,500 American troops on heightened alert. Denmark is sending a frigate to the Baltic Sea and four F-16 warplanes to Lithuania. Spain has sent a minesweeper and a frigate to join NATO naval forces in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.

Madrid is also considering sending fighter jets to Bulgaria, while the Netherlands has also offered two F-35 warplanes to Bulgaria from April.

France may send troops to Romania under NATO command.

WHY ARE ALLIES NOT MOVING MORE QUICKLY?

Russia says it has no intention of invading Ukraine. read more

NATO, which is both a political and military organisation, has offered more talks with Moscow in the format of the NATO-Russia Council in Brussels to find a solution.

Moreover, as an alliance of 30 countries with different priorities, decisions are taken collectively and it can take time to drum up the necessary troops for joint missions.

NATO allies are discussing whether to increase the number of troops rotating through eastern Europe. They will focus on the issue when allied defence ministers meet for a scheduled meeting in Brussels in mid-February.

NATO has four multinational battalion-size battlegroups, or some 4,000 soldiers, led by Canada, Germany, Britain and the United States in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.

The troops serve as a “trip wire” for NATO’s 40,000-strong response force to come in quickly and bring more U.S. troops and weapons from across the Atlantic.

The biggest decisions may not come until June, when NATO leaders are due to meet for a summit in Madrid. They are expected to agree a new master plan, called a Strategic Concept, in part to cement NATO’s focus on deterring Russia.

WHAT IS NATO LIKELY TO DO IN THE BLACK SEA?

Bulgaria’s government has said it is ready to stand up a 1,000-strong force in the country, under Bulgarian command and in close cooperation with NATO, possibly with some soldiers from other allied countries.

It could be formed by April or May.

The Western alliance has a multinational land force of up to 4,000 troops in Romania. The United States also has soldiers stationed at separate bases in Romania and in Bulgaria.

Romania could see a bigger NATO presence, after France offered more troops. Romania is in talks with the United States over increasing troop numbers on its soil.

Although operational since 2017, the multinational force in Romania remains only a land command, without immediate air, maritime or special forces.

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Additional reporting by Tsvetelia Tsolova and Luiza Ilie, Editing by Timothy Heritage

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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World

Explainer: Why Yemen is at war

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Rescuers use a crane to remove collapsed concrete roof of a detention center hit by air strikes in Saada, Yemen January 21, 2022. REUTERS/Naif Rahma

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DUBAI, Jan 25 (Reuters) – Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have launched two missile attacks at the United Arab Emirates in the last week, raising the stakes in a ruinous and complex conflict.

Monday’s assault, which the Houthis said was aimed at a base hosting the U.S. military, was thwarted by American-built Patriot interceptors, following a strike that killed three people a week earlier at a fuel depot in Abu Dhabi.

The Houthis said they are punishing the UAE, a member of a Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen since 2015, for backing militias that joined the battle against the group in energy-rich Marib, the Saudi-backed government’s last northern stronghold.

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Escalations by both sides have further dimmed peace prospects in the conflict that enters its seventh year in March.

MARIB BATTLE

Last year Washington, under a new administration focused on human rights, added its heft to U.N. peace efforts in the hopes of engineering a ceasefire. It ended its support for coalition offensive operations and revoked a terrorist designation on the Houthis.

The peace push met with intransigence on both sides.

Last year the Houthis advanced in Marib, Yemen’s only gas producing region, pushing into most districts there apart from the city of Marib itself and nearby hydrocarbon sites. That advance dashed hopes for U.N.-led ceasefire efforts as both sides ramped up military operations.

Marib city is home to some 3 million people, including nearly 1 million who fled fighting elsewhere.

Emirati-backed forces joined the battle against the Houthis in Marib, leading to a further escalation the conflict as the movement turned its firing power at the UAE.

A COUNTRY DIVIDED

Yemen’s internal splits have festered for years.

North and south Yemen united into a single state in 1990, and southern separatists who tried to secede in 1994 were defeated, concentrating further power in the north.

Under former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who ruled the north from 1978 and the unified state from 1990-2012, corruption was rife and the leader’s family controlled much of the army and economy.

The Houthi movement grew among members of the Zaydi sect of Shi’ite Islam, who chafed as their heartland in the far north became impoverished. In the late 1990s they fought Yemen’s army and grew friendly with Iran.

The Muslim Brotherhood and other Sunni Islamists gained strength, particularly under General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, who built a power base in the army. Jihadist fugitives formed al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

ARAB SPRING

Saleh’s downfall in 2012 exacerbated Yemen’s divisions. When pro-democracy mass protests broke out in 2011, some of Saleh’s former allies turned on him. The army split. Separatists rallied in the south. The Houthis seized more areas. Yemen’s Gulf neighbours persuaded Saleh to step down.

Deputy president Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi was elected in 2012 to a two-year term to oversee a democratic transition, but things soon fell apart. Hadi was widely considered weak and his administration corrupt. Saleh’s allies undermined the transition. AQAP set up a mini-state and hit Sanaa with ever bloodier bombings.

In late 2014, the Houthis seized Sanaa with help from pro-Saleh army units, initially forcing Hadi to share power, then arresting him in early 2015. He escaped and fled to the southern port of Aden. Saudi Arabia formed a Western-backed coalition of Sunni Muslim fighting on behalf of Hadi’s government. The anti-Houthi coalition represents an array of Yemeni interests, including southern separatists, northeastern tribes, Sunni Islamists and army remnants loyal to Ahmar.

DEADLOCK

The Houthis and Saleh’s forces were driven from Aden and its environs in south Yemen, and from central Marib in 2015. Years of military stalemate followed with the Houthis holding most of the easily defended highlands and the Red Sea port of Hodeidah.

The coalition kept up intense air strikes, aiming to split the Houthis and Saleh. They imposed a partial blockade to stop Iran arming the Houthis, which Tehran denies. U.N.-backed talks went nowhere.

In 2017, Saleh abandoned his Houthi allies, hoping to cut a deal and regain power for his family. He was killed fleeing Sanaa and his loyalists turned on the Houthis.

To break the Houthis, the coalition in 2018 tried to seize Hodeidah port, the group’s main supply line. It failed. Aid groups warned a full assault may disrupt food and aid flows.

As military options faded and Riyadh came under intense Western scrutiny over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the coalition backed U.N.-sponsored talks in December 2018.

Peace efforts quickly faltered. The United Arab Emirates largely reduced its presence in 2019 in a bid to distance itself from an unpopular war.

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Writing by Michael Georgy
Editing by Peter Graff

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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