Tag Archives: Executive Branch (Discontinued from 10th January 2023)

Hiring, Wage Gains Eased in December, Pointing to a Cooling Labor Market in 2023

The U.S. labor market is losing momentum as hiring and wage growth cooled in December, showing the effects of slower economic growth and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases.

After two straight years of record-setting payroll growth following the pandemic-related disruptions, the labor market is starting to show signs of stress. That suggests 2023 could bring slower hiring or outright job declines as the overall economy slows or tips into recession.

Employers added 223,000 jobs in December, the smallest gain in two years, the Labor Department said Friday. Average hourly earnings were up 4.6% in December from the previous year, the narrowest increase since mid-2021, and down from a March peak of 5.6%.

All told, employers added 4.5 million jobs in 2022, the second-best year of job creation after 2021, when the labor market rebounded from Covid-19 shutdowns and added 6.7 million jobs. Last year’s gains were concentrated in the first seven months of the year. More recent data and a wave of tech and finance-industry layoffs suggest the labor market, while still vibrant, is cooling.

“I do expect the economy to slow noticeably by June, and in the second half of the year we’ll see a greater pace of slowing if not outright contraction,” said

Joe Brusuelas,

chief economist at RSM U.S.

Friday’s report sent markets rallying as investors anticipated it would cause the Fed to slow its pace of rate increases. The central bank’s next policy meeting starts Jan. 31. The Fed’s aggressive rate increases aimed at combating inflation didn’t significantly cool 2022 hiring, but revisions to wage growth showed recent gains weren’t as brisk as previously thought.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 700.53 points, or 2.13%, on Friday. The S&P 500 Index was up 2.28% and NASDAQ Composite Index advanced 2.56%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield declined 0.15 percentage point to 3.57%. Yields fall as bond prices rise.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in December from 3.6% in November, matching readings earlier in 2022 and just before the pandemic began as a half-century low. Fed officials said last month the jobless rate would rise in 2023. December job gains were led by leisure and hospitality, healthcare and construction.

Historically low unemployment and solid hiring, however, might mask some signs of weakness. The labor force participation rate, which measures the share of adults working or looking for work, rose slightly to 62.3% in December but is still well below prepandemic levels, one possible factor that could make it harder for employers to fill open positions.

The average workweek has declined over the past two years and in December stood at 34.3 hours, the lowest since early 2020.

Hiring in temporary help services has fallen by 111,000 over the past five months, with job losses accelerating. That could be a sign that employers, faced with slowing demand, are reducing their employees’ hours and pulling back from temporary labor to avoid laying off workers.

The tech-heavy information sector lost 5,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department report showed. Retail saw a 9,000 rise in payrolls, snapping three straight months of declines.

Tech companies cut more jobs in 2022 than they did at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to layoffs.fyi, which tracks industry job cuts. On Wednesday,

Salesforce Inc.

said it would cut 10% of its workforce, unwinding a hiring spree during the pandemic. The Wall Street Journal reported that

Amazon.com Inc.

would lay off 18,000 people, roughly 1.2% of its total workforce. Other companies, such as

Facebook

parent

Meta Platforms Inc.,

DoorDash Inc.

and

Snap Inc.,

have also recently cut positions.

Companies in the interest-rate-sensitive housing and finance sectors, including

Redfin Corp.

,

Morgan Stanley

and

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.,

have also moved to reduce staff.


Months where overall jobs gained

Months where overall jobs declined

By the end of 2022, the U.S. had added nearly 2 million jobs since the end of 2019

More than 20 million jobs were lost near the start of the pandemic

Employment returns to prepandemic level

A monthly gain of more than 4 million jobs

Months where

overall jobs gained

Months where

overall jobs declined

By the end of 2022, the U.S. had added nearly 2 million jobs since the end of 2019

More than 20 million jobs were lost near the start of the pandemic

Employment returns to prepandemic level

A monthly gain of more than 4 million jobs

Months where

overall jobs gained

Months where

overall jobs declined

By the end of 2022, the U.S. had added nearly 2 million jobs since the end of 2019

More than 20 million jobs were lost near the start of the pandemic

Employment returns to prepandemic level

A monthly gain of more than 4 million jobs

Months where

overall jobs gained

Months where

overall jobs declined

By the end of 2022, the U.S. had added nearly 2 million jobs since the end of 2019

More than 20 million jobs were lost near the start of the pandemic

Employment returns to prepandemic level

A monthly gain of more than 4 million jobs

Months where

overall jobs gained

Months where

overall jobs declined

By the end of 2022, the U.S. had added nearly 2 million jobs since the end of 2019

More than 20 million jobs were lost near the start of the pandemic

Employment returns to prepandemic level

A monthly gain of more than 4 million jobs

Other data released this week point to a slowing U.S. economy. New orders for manufactured goods fell a seasonally adjusted 1.8% in November, the Commerce Department said Friday. Business surveys showed a contraction in economic activity in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Manufacturing firms posted the second-straight contraction following 29 months of expansion, and services firms snapped 30 straight months of growth in December.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal last fall saw a 63% probability of a U.S. recession in 2023. They saw the unemployment rate rising to 4.7% by December 2023.

“We’ve obviously been in a situation over the past few months where employment growth has been holding up surprisingly well and is slowing very gradually,” said

Andrew Hunter,

senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. “There are starting to be a few signs that we’re maybe starting to see a bit more of a sharp deterioration.”

Max Rottersman, a 61-year-old independent software developer, said he had been very busy with consulting jobs during much of the pandemic. But that changed over the summer when work suddenly dried up.

“I’m very curious to see whether I’m in high demand in the next few months or whether—what I sort of expect will happen—there will be tons of firing,” he said.

Despite some signs of cooling, the labor market remains exceptionally strong. On Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that there were 10.5 million job openings at the end of November, unchanged from October, well more than the number of unemployed Americans seeking work.

Some of those open jobs are at Caleb Rice’s home-renovation business in Calhoun, Tenn., which has been consistently busy since the start of the pandemic. The small company has raised pay and gone to a four-day week in an effort to hold on to workers.

“If I could get three more skilled hands right now, I’d be comfortable,” Mr. Rice said. “The way it goes is I’ll hire five, two will show up and of those two one won’t be worth a flip.”

Fed officials have been trying to engineer a gradual cooling of the labor market by raising interest rates. Officials are worried that a too-strong labor market could lead to more rapid wage increases, which in turn could put upward pressure on inflation as firms raise prices to offset higher labor costs.

The central bank raised rates at each of its past seven meetings and has signaled more rate increases this year to bring inflation down from near 40-year highs. Fed officials will likely take comfort in the slowdown in wage gains, which could prompt them to raise rates at a slower pace, Mr. Brusuelas, the economist, said.

“We’re closer to the peak in the Fed policy rate than we were prior to the report, and the Fed can strongly consider a further slowing in the pace of its hikes,” he said. “We could plausibly see a 25-basis-point hike versus a 50-basis-point hike at the Feb. 1 meeting.”

Write to David Harrison at david.harrison@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications
A graphic in an earlier version of this article showing the change in nonfarm payrolls since the end of 2019 was incorrectly labeled as change since January 2020. (Corrected on Jan. 6)

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Presidential Vote Counting to Get Revamp After Donald Trump Tried to Reverse 2020 Loss

WASHINGTON—For the first time in more than a century, Congress is poised to pass legislation that would revamp the process of certifying presidential electors, a direct response to efforts by former President

Donald Trump

and his supporters to overturn the 2020 election results. 

The Electoral Count Reform Act has been attached to a $1.65 trillion yearlong spending package currently moving through Congress that is expected to become law this week. The ECRA is the result of nearly a year of bipartisan Senate negotiations to update an 1887 law that came into focus during the certification of the presidential results on Jan. 6, 2021. 

Current law requires Congress to convene for a joint session on Jan. 6 after a presidential election to count and ratify the 538 electoral votes certified by the 50 states and District of Columbia. The vice president, serving as president of the Senate, has the duty to count the votes in a joint session of Congress. 

In 2021, Mr. Trump pressured then-Vice President Mike Pence to reject some electors unilaterally. Mr. Pence refused, saying such a move was beyond his power. After Mr. Trump urged his supporters to march on the Capitol in a speech on the Ellipse, a pro-Trump mob overran the Capitol, temporarily interrupting the proceedings. After Congress reconvened, 139 House Republicans and eight Senate Republicans voted against certifying the election results. 

The new legislation would make it clear that the vice president’s role is merely to count the votes publicly and that he or she has no power to alter the results. It also would significantly raise the threshold to sustain an objection to a state’s electors to one-fifth of both chambers, up from one House member and one senator now. 

The proposal would also provide for an expedited federal court challenge if a state attempts to delay or tamper with election results. The bill holds that the court decision is final and requires Congress to accept that decision.

The current Electoral Count Act “is a time bomb under democracy, and we learned on Jan. 6 that its ambiguities and confusing terms are very dangerous,” said Maine Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats.

Sen.

Susan Collins

(R., Maine) credited the work of a group of 15 senators who span the ideological spectrum in negotiating the bill. “The events of Jan. 6 clearly brought home the flaws in the law,” she said.

The Biden administration called the changes “a vital piece of legislation.”

Sen.

Josh Hawley

(R., Mo.) said he opposed changes to the current law. Mr. Hawley was the first senator to say he would object to the results of the 2020 presidential election, a move that forced lawmakers to debate and vote to affirm the states’ tallies on Jan. 6, 2021. As Mr. Hawley entered the Capitol ahead of the joint session that day, he was photographed fist-pumping to cheers from the pro-Trump crowd gathered outside.

“I think it’s fine, this is the democratic process,” Mr. Hawley said about the current rules. “I don’t think the objection caused the riot.” 

Other lawmakers have used the process outlined in the Electoral Count Act to object to election results in recent years. Some Democrats objected, unsuccessfully, to certification of both of former President

George W. Bush

‘s wins as well as Mr. Trump’s.

In both cases the Democratic nominee for president had already conceded and wasn’t supportive of the objections. Mr. Trump has continued to call for overturning the results and to claim falsely that he won the 2020 election.

The House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack made four criminal referrals for Mr. Trump to the Justice Department on Monday after investigating the lead-up and attack itself. Mr. Trump has denied wrongdoing related to the riot. The Justice Department is currently conducting a parallel investigation of the events.

“I don’t care whether they change The Electoral Count Act or not, probably better to leave it the way it is so that it can be adjusted in case of Fraud,” Mr. Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday.

Mr. Trump has said the planned changes show that the vice president did indeed have the power to block electors under current law. Backers say they are trying to eliminate any loopholes that could be exploited by future candidates, including Mr. Trump.

Among the Electoral Count Reform Act provisions included in this week’s spending package is a requirement that each state’s governor, unless specified in the state’s laws or constitution, submit the slate of electors. That would keep states from submitting false electors as some sought to do in 2020. 

It also would prevent state legislatures from overriding the popular vote in their states by declaring a “failed election,” except in narrowly defined “extraordinary and catastrophic” events.

Edward Foley, the director of Election Law at Ohio State University said the bill’s most significant provision is making sure the courts are the final backstop in case of false electors.

“We can look to courts as being the branch of government that is most immune from this kind of political denialism,” he said.

The version included in the spending bill is the Senate version, which had 38 co-sponsors, including both Majority Leader

Chuck Schumer

(D., N.Y.) and Minority Leader

Mitch McConnell

(R., Ky.).

In September, the House passed its own version of the legislation, 229-203. Nine Republicans joined Democrats in voting to pass the House bill. None of them are returning to Congress next year.

Write to Eliza Collins at eliza.collins@wsj.com and Lindsay Wise at lindsay.wise@wsj.com

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Putin Describes Situation in Occupied Ukrainian Territories as ‘Extremely Difficult’

Mr. Putin made a rare admission Tuesday that the war in Ukraine—where Russian forces have suffered a number of stinging setbacks since the summer—is facing obstacles.

Mr. Putin said that there were difficulties in the Ukrainian territories that the Kremlin has illegally claimed as Russian land.

In September, the Kremlin staged referendums in Russian-controlled Luhansk and areas of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. It then declared that Moscow had annexed those regions, despite Russian forces only controlling some portions of them.

In video comments published Tuesday, marking Security Workers Day—a special holiday for employees in that sector—Mr. Putin described the situation in those territories as “extremely difficult.”

Moscow has previously sought to play down any problems with Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, with the Kremlin’s propaganda machine, casting battlefield retreats as a necessary step to regroup and prevent the unnecessary loss of Russian service personnel.

In September, Mr. Putin ordered what he called a “partial mobilization” of 300,000 draftees, arguing that the move—unpopular among most Russians, polls show—was needed to defend Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Kremlin leader acknowledging difficulties in the recently seized territories could be a strategy to prepare the Russian population for a protracted war or laying the groundwork for the call up of additional troops, some analysts who monitor Kremlin policy have said.

Although the country’s defense ministry announced in October that the mobilization was complete, the fact that Mr. Putin hasn’t signed a decree officially ending the draft has stirred concern among many Russians who fear another draft is imminent. But others view a new call-up as inevitable.

Mobilized soldiers received combat training this month outside Moscow.



Photo:

yuri kochetkov/Shutterstock

“Mobilization cannot be partial. If it is declared, then it goes until the end of the war in waves,” Igor Skurlatov, a political analyst who heads Third Power, a social group that unites Russian ultra-patriots, wrote on his Telegram channel Saturday. “These are military basics. Why anyone thinks otherwise is unclear.”

In November, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that there were no discussions in the Kremlin of a new mobilization, but “I can’t speak for the defense ministry,” he said.

On Tuesday, Mr. Putin told the security services that people living in the Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine are citizens of Russia and it was their “duty to do everything necessary to ensure their security, rights and freedoms as much as possible.”

Security services personnel include employees of the Foreign Intelligence Service, the Federal Protective Service includes presidential security, the Main Directorate of Special Programs, and the Federal Security Service, or FSB, successor to the Soviet-era KGB.

Mr. Putin called on the FSB to enhance the monitoring of Russian society, including putting places of mass gatherings, strategic facilities, transport and energy infrastructure “under constant control.”

A “concentration of forces is now required from counterintelligence agencies, including the military,” Mr. Putin said. “It’s necessary to strictly suppress the actions of foreign intelligence services, to quickly identify traitors, spies and saboteurs.”

Vladimir Putin met on Tuesday with the Moscow-appointed head of the Donetsk region.



Photo:

Mikhail Klimentyev/Associated Press

The Kremlin has cracked down on protests against the war or other domestic dissent this year, jailing thousands who publicly opposed the campaign or protested September’s call-up of draftees that prompted hundreds of thousands of fighting-age Russian men to leave the country.

Mr. Putin’s comments come as fighting continues to rage across most of the territories that Russia absorbed from Ukraine. Last week, Russian-installed officials in Donetsk and Luhansk accused Kyiv’s forces of shelling residential areas, schools and a hospital. Areas inside Russia have also been struck, including the border regions of Kursk and Belgorod, where on Sunday a rocket killed at least one person.

Meanwhile, Russia this week launched fresh waves of drone attacks against Ukraine as the country struggled to repair damaged energy infrastructure that has left millions without power. On Friday, a significant Russian cruise-missile attack against Ukrainian infrastructure targets left Kharkiv and several other cities, including the capital, Kyiv, without power, water and heating for several hours. Serhiy Kovalenko, the chief executive of Ukrainian energy company Yasno, said Tuesday that for residents of the capital, 10-hour blackouts are the new reality.

On absorbing the four new territories in September, Mr. Putin vowed that the people living in these areas would be part of Russia forever. Ukrainian President

Volodymyr Zelensky

has pledged to retake the occupied areas, driving Russian forces from lands that he says rightfully belong to his nation.

In November, Russian forces ceded control of the city of Kherson, the only regional capital it had managed to take since invading Ukraine in February. The retreat marked the biggest setback in what the Kremlin calls its special military operation.

Ukrainian volunteers and servicemen distributed humanitarian aid to people in Kherson this week.



Photo:

sergey kozlov/Shutterstock

Western arms have helped Ukraine clinch a series of battlefield victories in recent months, but officials in Kyiv say the support so far isn’t enough to drive Russian forces out of all the territory they have occupied. Russia is betting that Western backing for Kyiv will wane as the war drags on and the cost of arming Ukraine and propping up its economy grows.

Mr. Putin has remained defiant, refusing to back down despite a series of international sanctions that have impaired Russia’s economy and amid growing isolation from the West.

On Tuesday, the Russian leader looked relaxed as he presided over a Kremlin ceremony to present the highest state award to those he described as “heroes, pioneers, creators, courageous and hardworking people who have made a huge contribution to the development of the country, who have proven themselves in our difficult but significant time.”

Among the recipients were the Russian-installed leaders of the illegally integrated Ukrainian regions.

Write to Ann M. Simmons at ann.simmons@wsj.com

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Ukraine Hits Hotel Hosting Russian Military

KHERSON, Ukraine—Kyiv’s military demolished a hotel complex hosting dozens of Russian military personnel overnight with U.S.-supplied long-range artillery, while more Russian drone strikes continued to destroy Ukraine’s electricity grid. 

Ukrainian President

Volodymyr Zelensky

said 1.5 million people in Ukraine’s southern Odessa region were left without power after strikes late Saturday. Only critical infrastructure was connected to the power grid, he said, adding that restoring service could take longer than after previous attacks.

Air-raid sirens continued to sound in Ukraine on Sunday as Russia launched more strikes. 

Footage of the Ukrainian artillery strike against a hotel in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol showed burning buildings as well as dead and wounded Russian soldiers among the wreckage. Russian and Ukrainian social-media channels said there were dozens of casualties but gave varying death tolls.

Workers repair high-voltage power lines cut by missile strikes near Odessa, southern Ukraine.



Photo:

oleksandr gimanov/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Ukrainian soldiers with a self-propelled howitzer near the front line in eastern Ukraine.



Photo:

ihor tkachov/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The exiled Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol,

Ivan Fedorov,

wrote on his Telegram channel that as many as 200 Russian troops were “roasted” in the strike. The Russian-installed governor of the region said dozens were wounded and two killed.

Ukraine has been using U.S.-supplied long-range artillery, or Himars, to try to break up Russian troop concentrations behind the front lines so that Moscow can’t maneuver its forces for an attack. The strike on the hotel complex in Melitopol, located in southeastern Ukraine about 50 miles from the Sea of Azov, appeared to be at the limit of the range of the Himars munitions supplied by the U.S.

But Ukraine has so far been able to mount only a limited defense against Moscow’s campaign of missile and drone attacks. 

Missile strikes late Saturday that hit around Ukraine’s southern port city of Odessa “were critical,” Mr. Zelensky said in his nightly address. 

“This is the true attitude of Russia toward Odessa, toward Odessa residents—deliberate bullying, deliberate attempt to bring disaster to the city,” he said.

A destroyed house in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine.



Photo:

ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO/REUTERS

Odessa regional officials didn’t say what exactly had been hit, but wrote on Facebook that repairing the damage could take two or three months. DTEK, one of the country’s largest energy companies, said almost the entire region was without power late Saturday, and that utility workers were giving priority to reconnecting hospitals and other critical infrastructure to the grid.

“The situation in the energy sector of Odessa region remains difficult,” DTEK wrote on Facebook. “According to preliminary forecasts, it will take much more time to restore energy facilities in the Odessa region than in the previous times after enemy shelling.”

Ukrainian leaders have repeatedly accused Russia of weaponizing the onset of winter to affect the civilian population and compel Kyiv to withdraw from its positions. Russian President Vladimir Putin last week acknowledged doing so and vowed to continue. “There’s a lot of noise about our strikes on the energy infrastructure of a neighboring country,” Mr. Putin said. “Yes, we do that.”

Officials encouraged Odessa residents to go to government-established centers, which have power generators, to warm up and charge devices. In addition, Germany said it would donate 470 electric generators, at a cost of about $20 million. 

The attack on Odessa over the weekend suggested that Moscow has replenished its supply of drones following several weeks in which they had disappeared from Ukrainian skies. 

People embrace after arriving at the railway station in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine.



Photo:

SHANNON STAPLETON/REUTERS

Meanwhile, Russia continued to step up its shelling of Kherson after withdrawing from the southern regional capital last month. Shelling hit critical infrastructure in the city on Saturday night, said regional governor Yaroslav Yanushevych. A day earlier, shelling killed two people and injured eight others. 

Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, fired at Russian positions across the Dnipro River from inside the city. The sound of rockets whistled through neighborhoods near the river. 

Fierce fighting also continued in the area around Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are attempting to regain the city, which they occupied in the early days of the invasion and into the summer before a Ukrainian counteroffensive drove them further into eastern Ukraine.

Many of the Russian personnel who were withdrawn from Kherson in the fall were redeployed to the east to bolster the Russian push toward Bakhmut, where trenches and other fortifications now resemble those seen in World War I.

Apartment buildings without electricity during a power outage in Odessa, southern Ukraine.



Photo:

STRINGER/REUTERS

Write to Ian Lovett at ian.lovett@wsj.com and Alan Cullison at alan.cullison@wsj.com

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