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Business

Shares rise, yen climbs as BOJ battles bond bears

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  • BOJ under intense pressure as it defends yield policy
  • Yen hits 7-mth high, yuan climbs as dollar eases
  • More earnings ahead, many central bank speakers
  • Britain’s FTSE flirts with record high

SYDNEY/LONDON, Jan 16 (Reuters) – Shares firmed on Monday as optimism over corporate earnings and China’s reopening offset concerns the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might temper its super-sized stimulus policy at a pivotal meeting this week, while a holiday in U.S. markets made for thin trading.

The yen climbed to its highest since May after rumours swirled the BOJ might hold an emergency meeting on Monday as it struggles to defend its new yield ceiling in the face of massive selling. read more

That had local markets in an anxious mood, and Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) slipped 1.3% to a two-week low.

Yet MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.27%, with hopes for a speedy Chinese reopening giving it a gain of 4.2% last week.

And European shares opened positively with the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) up 0.1% by 0850 GMT driven by healthcare stocks (.SXDP) which gained 0.6%.

Britain’s benchmark FTSE index (.FTSE) edged close to the record high of 7903.50 it hit in 2018, with banks and life insurance companies among the top gainers.

Earnings season gathers steam this week with Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Netflix (NFLX.O) among those reporting.

World leaders, policy makers and top corporate chiefs will be attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, and there are a host of central bankers speaking, including no fewer than nine members of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The BOJ’s official two-day meeting ends on Wednesday and speculation is rife it will make changes to its yield curve control (YCC) policy given the market has pushed 10-year yields above its new ceiling of 0.5%. read more

The BOJ bought almost 5 trillion yen ($39.12 billion) of bonds on Friday in its largest daily operation on record, yet 10-year yields still ended the session up at 0.51%.

Early on Monday, the bank offered to buy another 1.3 trillion yen of JGBs, but the yield stuck at 0.51%.

“There is still some possibility that market pressure will force the BOJ to further adjust or exit the YCC,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note. “We can’t ignore this possibility, but at this stage we do not consider it a main scenario.”

“Although domestic demand has started to recover and inflation continues to rise, the economy is not heating up to the extent that a sharp rise in interest rates and potential risk of large yen appreciation can be tolerated,” they added.

THE YEN UN-ANCHORED

The BOJ’s uber-easy policy has acted as a sort of anchor for yields globally, while dragging down the yen. Were it to abandon the policy, it would put upward pressure on yields across developed markets and most likely see the yen surge.

The dollar has been undermined by falling U.S. bond yields as investors wager the Federal Reserve can be less aggressive in raising rates given inflation has clearly turned the corner.

The Japanese yen rose to a more than seven-month peak against the dollar on Monday, as market sentiment was dominated by expectations that the BOJ would make further tweaks to, or fully abandon, its yield control policy.

The yen jumped roughly 0.5% to a high of 127.215 per dollar, before easing to 128.6 by 0915 GMT.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of major currencies, recovered from a 7-month low touched earlier in the session to be at 102.6 .

Futures now imply almost no chance the Fed will raise rates by half a point in February, with a quarter-point move seen as a 94% probability.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries are down at 3.498%, having fallen 6 basis points last week, close to its December trough, and major chart target of 3.402%.

Alan Ruskin, global head of G10 FX Strategy at Deutsche Securities, said the loosening of global supply bottlenecks in recent months was proving to be a disinflationary shock, which increases the chance of a soft landing for the U.S. economy.

“The lower inflation itself encourages a soft landing through real wage gains, by allowing the Fed to more readily pause and encouraging a better behaved bond market, with favourable spillovers to financial conditions,” Ruskin said.

“A soft landing also reduces the tail risk of much higher U.S. rates, and this reduced risk premia helps global risk appetite,” Ruskin added.

Commodities prices which had rallied last week, dipped on Monday.

The drop in yields and the dollar had benefited the gold price, which jumped 2.9% last week, but the precious metal slipped 0.4% to $1,911 an ounce in early trading on Monday .

Oil prices slid as a rise in COVID cases clouded the prospects for a surge in demand as China reopens its economy.

Brent crude fell 73 cents, or 0.83%, to $84.57 a barrel by 0857 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was down 61 cents, or 0.6%, at $79.24 a barrel.

($1 = 127.8000 yen)

Reporting by Wayne Cole and Lawrence White;
Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Emelia Sithole-Matarise

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Stocks hold on to gains ahead of U.S. inflation test

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  • World stocks inch higher; dollar near 7-month lows
  • Yen gains on report BOJ to scrutinise policy effects
  • Eyes on U.S. CPI due at 1330 GMT
  • Treasuries and euro zone bonds add to gains

MILAN, Jan 12 (Reuters) – World stocks held on to modest gains on Thursday on cautious optimism that U.S. data will confirm inflation is softening, while the yen rose with a report Japan will this month review the side-effects of its ultra-easy policy.

A MSCI gauge of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.2% to a four-week high by 0831 GMT ahead of core U.S. consumer price inflation, (USCPFY=ECI) which are expected to have slowed to an annual 5.7% in December, from 6% a month earlier. Month-on-month headline inflation is seen at zero (USCPI=ECI).

Bonds held gains, also mirroring hopes of a softer inflation print, and the U.S. dollar was near a seven-month low against a basket of currencies. Europe’s STOXX 600 (.STOXX) equity benchmark index rose 0.4% to its highest since April 2022.

The data due at 1330 GMT is set to have a big impact on markets by shaping expectations of the speed of interest rate hikes in the world’s biggest economy. Markets have priced better-than-even odds that the Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points, rather than 50, at February’s meeting.

“Both the worst and best days for the S&P 500 in 2022 came on days of a CPI release. As such, it’s inevitable that today’s U.S. CPI has the ability to shape the next month,” wrote Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid.

“The latest releases have seen two downside surprises on CPI in a row for the first time since the pandemic, which has led to growing hopes that the Fed might achieve a soft landing after all,” he added.

The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.1% after climbing to a seven-month high, while Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) was steady.

S&P 500 futures were broadly steady following gains for Wall Street indexes on Wednesday. Boston Federal Reserve bank leader Susan Collins told the New York Times that she was leaning towards a 25 basis point hike.

Optimism for a more benign rates outlook and a pickup in demand as China emerges from strict COVID restrictions kept oil prices near one-week peaks.

Brent crude futures topped $83 on Thursday before retreating slightly to trade flat on the day at 82.67 a barrel.

U.S. Treasuries added a little to Wednesday’s gains, sending benchmark 10-year yields down 4.4 basis points (bps) to 3.514%. German 10-year yields , the benchmark for the euro zone, fell 7 bps to 3.509%.

CHINA HOPES

Along with hopes that Western central banks will be gentler, investors are also banking on a recovery in China to help global growth, and are eyeing a potential policy shift in Japan.

The Bank of Japan stunned markets last month by widening the band around its 10-year bond yield target, a move that triggered a sudden rise in yields and a jump in the yen.

On Thursday. Japan’s Yomiuri newspaper reported the BOJ will review the side-effects of Japan’s ultra-easy settings sooner than expected – at next week’s policy meetings – and that it may take additional steps to correct distortions in the yield curve.

The yen rose as much as 0.9% and was last at 131.75 per dollar. Ten-year Japanese government bond futures fell to almost eight-year lows.

Foreign exchange markets elsewhere were holding their breath ahead of the U.S. CPI data while China’s reopening kept a bid under Asia’s currencies. The dollar index added 0.1% to 103.23, not far off a seven-month low of 102.93 hit this week. The yuan traded near five-month highs at 6.7555 per dollar.

China on Thursday reported consumer price falls in December and a larger-than-expected drop in factory gate prices – underscoring weakness in demand – which investors are betting will recover over the coming months.

“It’s not enough for China to come out of COVID to really turn the whole world economy around,” said Steven Wieting, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Citi Global Wealth Investments. “But it really weighs in the opposite direction.”

Reporting by Danilo Masoni in Milan and Tom Westbrook in Singapore

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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World

Police move on coal mine protesters barricaded in abandoned German village

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LUETZERATH, Germany, Jan 11 (Reuters) – Hundreds of police began clearing climate protesters out of an abandoned village on Wednesday in a showdown over the expansion of an opencast lignite mine that has highlighted tensions around Germany’s climate policy during an energy crisis.

The protesters formed human chains, made a makeshift barricade out of old containers and chanted “we are here, we are loud, because you are stealing our future” as police in helmets moved in. Some threw rocks, bottles and pyrotechnics. Police also reported protesters were lobbing petrol bombs.

The demonstrators, wearing masks, balaclavas or biosuits, have been protesting against the Garzweiler mine, run by energy firm RWE (RWEG.DE) in the village of Luetzerath in the brown-coal district of the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia.

Climate activist Greta Thunberg plans to join the demonstration on Saturday, a spokesperson for Luetzerathlebt environmentalist group told Reuters.

Economy Minister Robert Habeck of the Greens called for no further violence after police and protesters scuffled.

“Leave it at that – from both sides,” he told reporters.

Police say the standoff could take weeks to resolve.

As the officers moved in, some activists perched on the roofs or the windows of the abandoned buildings, chanting and shouting slogans.

Others hung suspended from wires and wooden frames, or were holed up in treehouses to make it harder for police to dislodge them after a court ruling allowed for the demolition of the village now otherwise empty of residents and owned by RWE.

Julia Riedel, who said she has been camping in the village for two-and-a-half years, said the demonstrators had taken up their positions “because the issue here is whether the climate will cross the tipping point or not.”

Police, who had water cannon trucks on standby, led away and carried some protesters from the site.

The project has underscored Germany’s dilemma over climate policy, which environmentalists say has taken a back seat during the energy crisis that has hit Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, forcing a return to dirtier fuels.

It is particularly sensitive for the Greens party, now back in power as part of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government after 16 years in opposition. Many Greens oppose the mine’s expansion, but Habeck has been the face of the government’s decision.

[1/14] Police officers keep guard as activists stage a sit-in protest against the expansion of the Garzweiler open-cast lignite mine of Germany’s utility RWE, in Luetzerath, Germany, January 11, 2023 that has highlighted tensions over Germany’s climate policy during an energy crisis. REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen

“The empty settlement of Luetzerath, where no one lives any more, is the wrong symbol in my view,” Habeck said with reference to the demonstration.

HEAVY MACHINERY

Birte, a 51-year-old midwife who joined the protest on Sunday, was in tears as police led her away.

She said it was important for politically moderate citizens to attend the protest, to show “that these are not just young, crazy, violent people, but that there are people who care”.

Police have urged the protesters to leave the area and remain peaceful.

“It’s a big challenge for the police and we need a lot of special forces here to deal with the situation. We have aerial rescue specialists,” said police spokesperson Andreas Mueller.

“These are all factors that make it difficult to tell how long this will last. We expect it to continue for a least several weeks.”

A Reuters eyewitness saw police using heavy machinery to start dismantling high barricades.

RWE said earlier on Wednesday it would start to dismantle Luetzerath, and had begun building a fence around the area.

“RWE is appealing to the squatters to observe the rule of law and to end the illegal occupation of buildings, plants and sites belonging to RWE peacefully,” RWE said.

The fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted Scholz’s government to change course on previous policies.

Those include firing up mothballed coal power plants and extending the lifespan of nuclear power stations after Russia cut gas deliveries to Europe in an energy standoff that sent prices soaring.

The government has, however, brought forward the date when all brown coal power plants will be shut down in North Rhine-Westphalia, to 2030 from 2038, acceding to a campaign promise from the Greens.

Writing by Paul Carrel and Matthias Williams; Editing by Tom Hogue, Christopher Cushing, Conor Humphries and Alison Williams

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Global shares retreat after Fed inflation nudge

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LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – Global shares fell for the first time in three days on Tuesday, after comments from two Federal Reserve officials injected a note of caution over the U.S. rate outlook, knocking equities, commodities and other risk assets.

The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.2%, but remained in sight of Monday’s three-week high, while the dollar – a gauge of investor risk appetite – edged up against a basket of major currencies.

In the past six weeks, China has dismantled its zero-COVID policy even as cases have surged around the country, which has given markets a bumpy ride as investors weighed up the economic benefits of reopening against the impact to activity from the wave of infections.

Adding to that has been a sense of optimism that inflation has peaked, especially in the United States, and, as such, the Fed will not have to raise rates as much as many had feared.

However, with consumer price pressures still well above the central bank’s target of 2%, two Fed officials on Monday issued a stark reminder that interest rates will have to keep rising, no matter what investors have priced in.

“The market is trying to get one step ahead of the Fed, but it’s not actually listening to what it’s saying. And the Fed is being quite clear with its message – that rates are going to push higher and they’re going to stay higher for longer,” CityIndex strategist Fiona Cincotta said.

“If we look at expectations of inflation later this week – the big focus – core inflation is still expected to remain high. It doesn’t matter which way you look at it. It’s still higher than the target the Fed is aiming for,” she said.

U.S. consumer price data, due on Thursday, is expected to show headline inflation slowed to 6.5% in December from 7.1% in November.

The data could be key to setting expectations for what happens with rates at the Fed’s next policy meeting and beyond.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Wall Street Journal she would pay close attention to Thursday’s data and both 25- and 50-basis point hikes were options for her. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said his “base case” was for no rate cuts this year or next.

“The main theme overnight was cautiousness in the equity space as stocks pared gains after hawkish comments from two Fed officials. Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly said the Fed would likely hike (interest) rates to above 5% and hold them there for some time,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses a conference on central bank independence later on Tuesday and investors will likely scour his remarks for any signal on monetary policy.

“Given that the recent rebound in equity markets and fall in bond yields and the US dollar is loosening financial conditions, today might offer an opportunity for Fed chairman Jay Powell to reset the narrative slightly,” CMC Markets chief strategist Michael Hewson said.

FRAGILE CHINA

In Europe, the STOXX 600 (.STOXX), which on Monday hit its highest in eight months, fell 0.7%, led by a decline in industrials. London’s FTSE 100 (.FTSE) lost 0.2%, while Frankfurt’s DAX (.GDAXI) fell 0.5%.

U.S. stock index futures , fell 0.3%, indicating Wall Street could open a touch lower after a volatile session the previous day.

The dollar carved out gains against the Australian dollar , which is highly sensitive to the Chinese economy and has gained 3.5% in the last three weeks alone, based on the optimism around reopening.

The Aussie was last down 0.5% at $0.6877, while the offshore yuan lost 0.1% against the dollar to trade around 6.7913. It reached its strongest level since mid-August the previous day.

The dollar index rose 0.2%. The euro was flat, while the pound fell 0.3%. The yen fell 0.1% against the dollar to 132.06, even after data showed a faster pick-up in Tokyo inflation that could prompt the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy more quickly.

Strategists at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, on Tuesday said they expected the Chinese economy to grow by 6% this year, which should cushion the global slowdown as recession hits developed-market economies. But any bounce may be fleeting.

“We don’t expect the level of economic activity in China to return to its pre-COVID trend, even as domestic activity restarts. We see growth falling back once the restart runs its course,” Wei Li, who is global chief investment strategist for the BlackRock Investment Institute, wrote in a note.

Copper eased back from six-month highs , as bullishness from China’s emergence from COVID-19 was offset by concern about the risks of a broader global downturn.

London Metal Exchange copper futures fell 0.5% to $8,813 a tonne, having hit their highest in over six months on Monday, while zinc fell 0.7% and lead dropped 2%.

Oil pared earlier losses, but concern persisted that China returning to more normal activity may not translate into a boom in energy demand.

“The social vitality of major Chinese cities is rapidly recovering, and the restart of China’s demand is worth looking forward to. However, considering that the recovery of consumption is still at the expected stage, the oil price will most likely remain low and range-bound,” analysts from Haitong Futures said.

Brent crude futures were last up 0.4% to $80.00 a barrel. The oil price is about 2.3% below where it was a year ago and 45% below the highs around $139 after Russia invaded Ukraine last February.

Additional reporting by Selena Li in Hong Kong; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Angus MacSwan and Chizu Nomiyama

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Oil jumps 3% on demand optimism as China borders reopen

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  • China reopens borders in final farewell to zero-COVID
  • Hopes of slower U.S. interest rate hikes boost risk sentiment
  • Oil’s gain follows more than 8% drop last week

LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) – Oil extended gains on Monday, rising more than 3% after China’s move to reopen its borders boosted the outlook for fuel demand and overshadowed global recession concerns.

The rally was part of a wider boost for risk sentiment supported by both the reopening of the world’s biggest crude importer and hopes for less-aggressive increases to U.S. interest rates, with equities rising and the dollar weakening.

Brent crude was up $2.38, or 3.03%, at $80.95 a barrel by 1312 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.36, or 3.2%, to $76.13.

“If recession is avoided, global oil demand and demand growth will remain resilient,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, adding that developments in China were the main reason for Monday’s gains.

“The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support,” he said.

The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016.

As part of a “new phase” in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. Domestically, about 2 billion trips are expected during the Lunar New Year season, nearly double last year’s and 70% of 2019 levels, Beijing says.

In oil-specific developments, China issued a second batch of 2023 crude import quotas, according to sources and documents reviewed by Reuters, raising the total for this year by 20% from the same time last year.

Despite Monday’s oil rebound, there is still concern that the massive flow of Chinese travellers could cause another surge in COVID infections while broader economic concerns also linger.

Those concerns are reflected in oil’s market structure. Both the near-term Brent and U.S. crude contracts are trading at a discount to the next month, a structure known as contango, which typically indicates bearish sentiment. ,

Reporting by Alex Lawler
Additional reporting by Florence Tan and Jeslyn Lerh
Editing by David Goodman

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Asia shares up on Fed rate wagers, China reopening lifts yuan

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  • https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
  • U.S. share futures edge up, Nikkei futures gain
  • Hopes U.S. CPI report will make case for smaller Fed hikes
  • Earnings season kicks off with major banks on Friday
  • Dollar nurses losses, yuan at highest since mid-August

SYDNEY, Jan 9 (Reuters) – Asian shares rallied on Monday as hopes for less aggressive U.S. rate hikes and the opening of China’s borders bolstered the outlook for the global economy.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 2.0% to a five-month top, with South Korean shares (.KS11) gaining 2.2%.

Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) added 0.7%, while Hong Kong shares (.HSI) climbed 1.4%. China’s yuan also firmed to its highest since mid-August under 6.8000.

Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) was closed for a holiday but futures were trading at 26,215, compared with a cash close on Friday of 25,973.

S&P 500 futures added 0.2% and Nasdaq futures 0.3%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.6%, while FTSE futures firmed 0.3%.

Earnings season kicks off this week with the major U.S. banks, with the Street fearing no year-on-year growth at all in overall earnings.

“Excluding Energy, S&P 500 EPS (earnings per share) is expected to fall 5%, driven by 134 bp of margin compression,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs. “Entering reporting season, earnings revision sentiment is negative relative to history.

“We expect further downward revisions to consensus 2023 EPS forecasts,” they added. “China reopening is one upside risk to 2023 EPS, but margin pressures, taxes, and recession present greater downside risks.”

A sign of the strain came from reports Goldman would start cutting thousands of jobs across the firm from Wednesday, as it prepares for a tough economic environment. read more

In Asia, Beijing has now opened borders that had been all but shut since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing a surge in traffic across the nation. read more

Bank of America analyst Winnie Wu expects China’s economy, the second-largest economy in the world, to benefit from a cyclical upturn in 2023 and anticipates market upside from both multiple expansion and 10% EPS growth.

FADING THE FED

Sentiment on Wall Street got a boost last week from a benign blend of solid U.S. payroll gains and slower wage growth, combined with a sharp fall in service-sector activity. The market scaled back bets on rate hikes for the Federal Reserve.

Fed fund futures now imply around a 25% chance of a half-point hike in February, down from around 50% a month ago.

That will make investors ultra sensitive to anything Fed Chair Jerome Powell might say at a central bank conference in Stockholm on Tuesday.

It also heightens the importance of U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data on Thursday, which is forecast to show annual inflation slowing to a 15-month low of 6.5% and the core rate dipping to 5.7%.

“We at NatWest have lower than consensus CPI forecasts, and if right that will likely solidify the market pricing of 25bps vs 50bps,” said NatWest Markets analyst John Briggs.

“In context, it should still be seen as a Fed that is still likely to hike a few more times and then hold rates high until inflation’s decline is guaranteed – to us that means a 5-5.25% funds rate.”

Friday’s mixed data had already seen U.S. 10-year yields drop a steep 15 basis points to 3.57%, while dragging the U.S. dollar down across the board.

Early Monday, the euro was holding firm at $1.0673 , having bounced from a low of $1.0482 on Friday. The dollar eased to 131.48 yen , away from last week’s top of 134.78, while its index was flat at 103.600 .

The Brazilian real had yet to trade after hundreds of supporters of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro were arrested after invading the country’s Congress, presidential palace and Supreme Court. read more

The drop in the dollar and yields was a boon for gold, lifting it to an eight-month peak around $1,877 an ounce .

Oil prices were steadier, after sliding around 8% last week amid demand concerns.

Brent bounced 80 cents to $79.37 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 78 cents to $74.55 per barrel.

Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Bradley Perrett and Christopher Cushing

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Dollar set for biggest one-day gain in three months, equities rally

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  • Global shares edge up
  • Correlation with dollar softens
  • Yen takes a breather from recent rally

LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) – The dollar headed for its largest one-day rise in over three months on Tuesday, while equities rallied in a macro-packed week that could offer a steer on when, and at what level, U.S. interest rates might peak.

The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) was roughly unchanged, although European stocks, led by hefty gains in anything from financials, to oil and gas stocks, to healthcare, bounced to two-week highs.

Typically, stocks tend to fall when the dollar gains, but that negative correlation between the two softened on Tuesday to its weakest since early September. The dollar index was last up 1% at 104.69.

The euro was the worst-performing currency against the dollar , falling by the most since late September, after German regional inflation data showed consumer price pressures eased sharply in December, thanks in large part to government measures to contain natural gas bills for households and businesses.

Data on U.S. payrolls this week are expected to show the labour market remains tight, while EU consumer prices could show some slowdown in inflation as energy prices ease.

“Energy base effects will bring about a sizeable reduction in inflation in the major economies in 2023, but stickiness in core components, much of this stemming from tight labour markets, will prevent an early dovish policy ‘pivot’ by central banks,” analysts at NatWest Markets wrote in a note.

They expect interest rates to top out at 5% in the United States, 2.25% in the EU and 4.5% in Britain and to stay there for the entire year. Markets, on the other hand, are pricing in rate cuts for late 2023, with fed fund futures implying a range of 4.25 to 4.5% by December.

“The thing that makes me nervous about this year is that we still do not know the full impact of the very significant monetary tightening that’s taken place across the advanced world,” Berenberg senior economist Kallum Pickering said.

“It takes a good year, or 18 months, for the full effect to kick in,” he said.

Central banks have expressed concern about rising wages, even as consumers have struggled to keep up with the soaring cost of living and companies are running out of room to protect their profitability by raising their own prices.

But, Pickering said, the labour market tends to lag the broader economy by some time, meaning that there is a risk that central banks could be raising interest rates by more than the economy can withstand.

“What central banks are inducing is essentially excess cyclicality, which is – they overstimulated in 2021 and triggered an inflationary boom and then overtightened in 2022 and triggered a disinflationary recession. It’s exactly the opposite of what you want central banks to do,” he said.

Investors will get their first insight into central bank thinking later this week when the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its December policy meeting.

The minutes will likely show many members saw risks that interest rates would need to go higher for longer, but investors are conscious of how much they’ve risen already.

On the markets, European shares rose thanks to gains in classic defensive sectors, such as healthcare and food and beverages. Drugmakers Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO), Astrazeneca (AZN.L) and Roche (ROG.S) were among the biggest positive weights on the STOXX 600 (.STOXX), along with Nestle (NESN.S)

The STOXX, which lost 13% in 2022, rose 1.1%. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE), the only major European index not to trade on Monday, rose 1.3%.

U.S. stock index futures gained between 0.4-0.5% , , pointing to an upbeat start at the opening bell.

Markets have for a while priced in an eventual U.S. easing, but they were badly wrong-footed by the Bank of Japan’s shock upward shift in its ceiling for bond yields.

The BOJ is now considering raising its inflation forecasts in January to show price growth close to its 2% target in fiscal 2023 and 2024, according to the Nikkei.

Such a move at its next policy meeting on Jan. 17-18 would only add to speculation of an end to ultra-loose policy, which has essentially acted as a floor for bond yields globally.

The policy shift has boosted the yen across the board, with the dollar losing 5% in December and the euro 2.3%.

The yen took a breather on Tuesday, easing 0.3% against the dollar to 130.96. The dollar earlier touched a six-month low of 129.52 yen . Against the dollar, the euro fell 1.1% to $1.05395, having dropped by as much as 1.4% earlier in the day.

“A theme we’ve often noticed is the euro’s negative seasonality in January, down around 1.3% since 1980 on average in January, with a 64% hit ratio. If history is any guide, it’s a rough month for euro longs,” Nomura strategist Jordan Rochester said.

Oil succumbed to the strength of the dollar, and reversed course, falling as concern about demand in China, the world’s second largest economy, added to the downward momentum.

A batch of surveys have shownChina’s factory activity shrank at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as COVID infections swept through production lines.

“China is entering the most dangerous weeks of the pandemic,” warned analysts at Capital Economics.

Brent crude lost 0.9% to trade around $85.15 a barrel, having hit a session high of $87.00 earlier on.

Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Bradley Perrett, Sam Holmes and Chizu Nomiyama

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

South Korea fines Tesla $2.2 mln for exaggerating driving range of EVs

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SEOUL, Jan 3 (Reuters) – South Korea’s antitrust regulator said it would impose a 2.85 billion won ($2.2 million) fine on Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) for failing to tell its customers about the shorter driving range of its electric vehicles (EVs) in low temperatures.

The Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) said that Tesla had exaggerated the “driving ranges of its cars on a single charge, their fuel cost-effectiveness compared to gasoline vehicles as well as the performance of its Superchargers” on its official local website since August 2019 until recently.

The driving range of the U.S. EV manufacturer’s cars plunge in cold weather by up to 50.5% versus how they are advertised online, the KFTC said in a statement on Tuesday.

Tesla could not be immediately reached for comment.

On its website, Tesla provides winter driving tips, such as pre-conditioning vehicles with external power sources, and using its updated Energy app to monitor energy consumption, but does not mention the loss of driving range in sub-zero temperatures.

[1/2] A view shows the Tesla logo on the hood of a car in Oslo, Norway November 10, 2022. REUTERS/Victoria Klesty

In 2021, Citizens United for Consumer Sovereignty, a South Korean consumer group, said the driving range of most EVs drop by up to 40% in cold temperatures when batteries need to be heated, with Tesla suffering the most, citing data from the country’s environment ministry.

Last year, the KFTC fined German carmaker Mercedes-Benz and its Korean unit 20.2 billion won for false advertising tied to gas emissions of its diesel passenger vehicles.

The challenge for electric vehicle performance in extreme temperatures is widely known, though EVs are popular in markets like Norway, where four out of five vehicles sold last year were battery-powered, led by Tesla.

A 2020 study of 4,200 connected EVs of all makes by Canada-based telematics provider Geotab found that most models had a similar drop in range in cold weather, primarily because the battery is also used to heat the car for the driver and passengers.

At just above 20 degrees Celsius, the average EV outperformed its stated range, but at minus 15 degrees the average EV had only 54% of its rated range, the study found.

Reporting by Ju-min Park and Hyunsu Yim; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Emelia Sithole-Matarise

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Brazil markets tumble on Lula’s first full day in office

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BRASILIA, Jan 2 (Reuters) – Brazilian markets delivered a withering verdict on leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s first full day in office on Monday, after he pledged to prioritize social issues and ordered a budget-busting extension to a fuel tax exemption.

Lula’s decision to extend the fuel tax exemption, which will deprive the Treasury of 52.9 billion reais ($9.9 billion) a year in fiscal income, was a stinging rebuke of his finance minister Fernando Haddad, a Workers Party (PT) loyalist who had said it would not be extended.

Haddad, who is seeking to dispel market fears that he might not maintain fiscal discipline, took office on Monday, pledging to control spending. “We are not here for adventures,” he said.

Markets seemed unconvinced.

The real currency lost 1.5% in value against the dollar in afternoon trading, while the benchmark Sao Paulo stock market index (.BVSP) ended 3.06% down. Shares of state-run oil company Petrobras (PETR4.SA) retreated nearly 6.45%.

In speeches delivered at his inauguration in Brasilia on Sunday, Lula promised that tackling hunger and poverty would be “the hallmark” of his third presidency after two previous stints running the country from 2003 to 2010.

Financial analysts said the start of Lula’s third presidency was in line with his campaign promises, and looked similar to earlier Workers Party policies that led to a deep recession.

Lula narrowly defeated far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in October, swinging South America’s largest nation back on a left-wing track.

On Monday, Lula instructed ministers to revoke steps to privatize state companies taken by the previous administration, including studies to sell Petrobras, the Post Office and state broadcasting company EBC.

On Sunday, he signed a decree extending an exemption for fuels from federal taxes, a measure passed by his predecessor aimed at lowering their cost in the run-up to the election, but which will deprive the Treasury of 52.9 billion reais ($9.9 billion) a year in fiscal income.

The federal tax exemption for fuels will last one year for diesel and biodiesel and two months for gasoline and ethanol, a decree published in the official gazette showed on Monday.

Gabriel Araujo Gracia, analyst at Guide Investimentos, said Lula’s plans to increase social spending, expand the role of state banks and abolish a constitutionally mandated spending ceiling harked back to the worst days of Workers Party rule.

“The policies remind us of Dilma Rousseff’s government rather than Lula’s,” Gracia said, referring to Lula’s handpicked successor, who was impeached while in office. “Her policies led to Brazil’s worst recession since 1929.”

Lula, who lifted millions of Brazilians from poverty during his first two terms, criticized Bolsonaro for allowing hunger to return to Brazil, and wept during his speech to supporters on Sunday as he described how poverty had increased again.

Allies said Lula’s newfound social conscience was the result of his 580 days in prison, Reuters reported on Sunday.

Lula kicks off his third presidential term after persuading Congress to pass a one-year, 170 billion-reais increased social spending package, in line with his campaign promises.

“The package ended up being bigger than expected, with potential repercussions for public debt sustainability,” Banco BTG Pactual said in a research note.

Lula spent his first day in office meeting with more than a dozen heads of state who attended his inauguration.

The meetings started with the king of Spain, and continued with South American presidents, among them the leftist leaders of Argentina, Chile and Bolivia, as well as representatives from Cuba and Venezuela, and Vice President Wang Qishan of China.

On Twitter, Lula said he had received a letter from Chinese leader Xi Jinping expressing a desire to increase cooperation between the two countries.

“China is our biggest trading partner, and we can further expand relations between our countries,” Lula added.

The new president is also set to attend the wake of Brazilian soccer star Pele, who died on Thursday at 82 after battling colon cancer.

Lula will pay his respects and pay tribute to Pele and his family on Tuesday morning, the president’s office said in a statement.

($1 = 5.3633 reais)

Reporting by Anthony Boadle, Marcela Ayres and Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Matthew Lewis and Jonathan Oatis

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World

Wall St stocks fall, oil rises as China drops quarantine rule

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NEW YORK/LONDON, Dec 27 (Reuters) – Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell on Tuesday after the release of U.S. economic data, while oil prices rose after China said it would scrap its COVID-19 quarantine rule for inbound travellers, which was seen as a major step in reopening its borders.

U.S. Treasury yields rose after economic data that showed the advance goods trade deficit for November narrowed to $83.35 billion from the prior month’s $98.8 billion, while a separate report pointed to continued struggles for the housing market as home prices fell under rising mortgage rates.

Oil pared gains as some U.S. energy facilities shut by winter storms began to restart after the commodity earlier hit a three-week high as China’s latest easing of COVID-19 restrictions spurred hopes of a recovery in demand.

On the first day of the holiday-shortened trading week, the rise in U.S. rates put pressure on shares in the heavy-weight rate sensitive technology sector, according to Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading in Stamford, Connecticut.

“It’s a lack of anybody with the conviction to step in and buy right now,” said O’Rourke, who said further pressure came from a sharp decline in shares of electric car maker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 113.48 points, or 0.34%, to 33,317.41, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 5.67 points, or 0.15%, to 3,839.15 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 90.23 points, or 0.86%, to 10,407.64.

Markets in some regions including London, Dublin, Hong Kong and Australia remained shut after the Christmas holiday.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.19% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.03%.

Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) rose 0.27%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed 0.53% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.16%.

Benchmark 10-year notes were up 7.5 basis points at 3.822%, from 3.747% on Friday. The 30-year bond was last up 9 basis points to yield 3.9116%, from 3.822%. The 2-year note was last up 6.4 basis points to yield 4.387%, from 4.323%.

The dollar pared losses on Tuesday after China said it would scrap its COVID-19 quarantine rule for inbound travellers, which also boosted risk-related currencies such as the Australian dollar.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.01%, with the euro up 0.14% at $1.065.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.37% versus the greenback at 133.36 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2019, down 0.34% on the day.

Commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollars also moved higher. read more

In energy futures, U.S. crude recently rose 0.98% to $80.34 per barrel and Brent was at $84.81, up 1.06% on the day.

Gold prices rose as optimism surrounding decisions by top consumer China to ease COVID-19 restrictions weighed on the dollar, while resilient U.S. yields cast a shadow over non-yielding bullion’s advance.

Spot gold added 1.5% to $1,824.29 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 1.09% to $1,815.50 an ounce.

Reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York, Nell Mackenzie in London
Additional reporting by Xie Yu and Ankur Banerjee
Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Matthew Lewis

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