Tag Archives: Energy

UK inflation to top 18% in early 2023, Citi warns

  • Citi sees UK CPI peaking at 18.6% in January
  • BoE may need to raise rates to 7% if inflation persists
  • Ofgem cap to hit 3,717 pounds in Oct, 5,816 pounds in 2023
  • BoE forecast inflation to peak in October at 13.3%

LONDON, Aug 22 (Reuters) – British consumer price inflation is set to peak at 18.6% in January, more than nine times the Bank of England’s target, an economist at U.S. bank Citi said on Monday, raising his forecast once again in light of the latest jump in energy prices.

“The question now is what policy may do to offset the impact on both inflation and the real economy,” Benjamin Nabarro said in a note to clients.

Consumer price inflation was last above 18% in 1976.

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The front-runner to become Britain’s next prime minister, Liz Truss, is likely to come up with measures to support households hit by surging energy prices, which might slightly lower the peak rate of inflation, Nabarro said.

Energy regulator Ofgem is due to set out new maximum tariffs for households on Friday, which will take effect in October.

The last tariff increase in April raised the annual bill for a typical household to 1,971 pounds ($2,322) from 1,278 pounds, following a surge in natural gas prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The next increases are likely to be steeper still, after a 15% rise in natural gas prices over the past week.

Citi forecasts Ofgem will raise the tariff cap to the equivalent of 3,717 pounds from October, with further increases to 4,567 pounds in January and 5,816 pounds in April 2023.

Energy analysts Cornwall Insight also raised their forecasts for Ofgem’s regulated tariffs to 3,554 pounds for October, 4,650 pounds for January and 5,341 pounds for May.

“It is difficult to see how many will cope with the coming winter,” Cornwall Insight consultant Craig Lowrey said.

In its forecasts at the start of August, the BoE assumed the cap would rise to around 3,500 pounds in October and that energy prices would then stabilise. Consumer price inflation would thus peak at 13.3% in October.

With inflation now set to peak substantially higher, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee was likely to conclude that the risks of more persistent inflation had intensified, Citi said.

“This means getting rates well into restrictive territory, and quickly,” Nabarro said. “Should signs of more embedded inflation emerge, we think Bank Rate of 6-7% will be required to bring inflation dynamics under control. For now though, we continue to think evidence for such effects are limited.”

The BoE announced a rare half-percentage-point interest rate increase earlier this month and investors expect another big move when the MPC makes its next scheduled monetary policy announcement on Sept. 15.

Nabarro forecast retail price inflation, which is used to set the return on index-linked bonds, would peak at 21.4%.

($1 = 0.8487 pounds)

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Editing by Catherine Evans

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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China’s July Russian coal imports hit 5-year high as West shuns Moscow

China brought in 7.42 million metric tons of coal from Russia last month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Saturday. That was the highest monthly figure since comparable statistics began in 2017, up from 6.12 million metric tons in June and 6.49 million metric tons in July 2021.

Western countries were avoiding cargoes from Russia ahead of a European Union ban on Russian coal that came into force on August 11, aimed at reducing the Kremlin’s energy revenue over its February invasion.

The ban has forced Russia to target buyers such as China and India and sell at a steep discount.

Russian thermal coal with a heating value of 5,500 kilocalories (kcal) traded around $150 per metric ton on a cost-and-freight basis in late July, while coal of the same quality at Australia’s Newcastle port was assessed at more than $210 per metric ton on a free-on-board (FOB) basis.

Some Chinese traders expect more Russian coal to flow into China in the fourth quarter when utilities in northern China build stocks for the winter heating season.

July shipments of Indonesian coal, mostly cheap, low-quality thermal coal with a heating value below 3,800 kcal, were 11.7 million metric tons. That was up 22% from June but down 40% from a year earlier. China has reduced its overall coal imports in recent months amid surging domestic output.

Power plants in southern China have increased tenders to buy Indonesian coal in August as it is cheaper than domestic coal, while demand for coal-fired power generation has been boosted by a record heat wave.

Indonesian thermal coal with a heating value at 3,800 kcal changed hand at about $78 per metric ton on a FOB basis last week, which would still below about 690 yuan (about $100) for local coal when considering shipping costs.

China’s customs data showed zero coal shipment from Australia in July.

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Oil slumps on fears over economic slowdown, stronger dollar

Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian

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  • Dollar hits 5-wk high on hawkish Fed remarks
  • China’s Sichuan extends power curbs on heatwave -Caixin
  • China cuts lending benchmarks to revive faltering economy
  • Western leaders discuss Iran nuclear deal

LONDON, Aug 22 (Reuters) – Oil prices slumped on Monday as investors were concerned that aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes might weaken the global economy and fuel demand while a stronger dollar also weighed.

Brent crude futures for October settlement fell $1.60, or 1.6%, to $95.12 a barrel by 0900 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September delivery, due to expire on Monday, were down $1.56, or 1.7%, at $89.21 a barrel.

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The more active October contract was at $88.92, down $1.52, or 1.7%.

On Friday both Brent and WTI climbed for a third straight day, but fell about 1.5% on the week on a stronger dollar and demand concerns.

“Growing fears over a global economic slowdown are behind the fall in oil markets,” said Tatsufumi Okoshi, senior economist at Nomura Securities.

“A higher U.S. dollar also prompted fresh selling,” he said. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers in other currencies.

The dollar index rose to a five-week high on Monday after Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said central bankers were inclined towards faster, front-loaded interest rate increases. read more

Investors will be paying close attention to comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he addresses an annual global central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.

read more

Prices also fell on worries over slowing fuel demand in China, the world’s largest oil importer, in part due to a power crunch in the southwest caused by a heatwave.

The province of Sichuan will extend curbs on industrial power consumers until Aug. 25 as it tries to deal with dwindling hydropower output and surging household electricity demand, financial news service Caixin said. read more

In a sign of overall concern about the Chinese economy, Beijing cut its benchmark lending rate and lowered the mortgage reference by a bigger margin on Monday, adding to easing measures announced last week, to revive an economy hobbled by a property crisis and a resurgence of COVID cases. read more

Meanwhile, the leaders of the United States, Britain, France and Germany discussed efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the White House said on Sunday, which could unleash sanctioned Iranian oil onto markets. read more

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Additional reporting by Yuka Obayashi; editing by Christian Schmollinger and Jason Neely

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Warren Buffett Not Expected to Bid for Control of Occidental Following Approval for Bigger Stake

Warren Buffett’s

bid to boost his big stake in

Occidental Petroleum Corp.

OXY 9.88%

even further isn’t expected to serve as a prelude to a full takeover of the resurgent energy company by the widely watched billionaire, at least for now.

In a regulatory filing Friday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said that Mr. Buffett’s

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

BRK.B -2.30%

had received permission to buy up to 50% of the driller’s shares. The news stoked speculation that Berkshire could be gearing up to acquire Occidental.

Analysts have said Occidental’s oil business would complement Berkshire’s existing energy holdings, which include utilities, natural gas and renewables. Mr. Buffett has a warm relationship with Chief Executive

Vicki Hollub

and has publicly praised her efforts to turn the company around after its acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and her plans to pay down debt and increase dividend payouts.

But Mr. Buffett hasn’t informed Occidental of any plans to acquire a controlling stake in the company, according to people close to the matter. Given Mr. Buffett’s well-known aversion to hostile deal making, it would be out of character for him to make a bid without sounding out the company’s executives and directors first.

Owning such a big stake—Berkshire is Occidental’s largest shareholder—gives him major influence over the company already, and acquiring control could cost him a hefty premium to the current share price. The stock closed Friday at $71.29, up nearly 10% on the news, giving the company a market capitalization of about $66 billion.

Why would Berkshire seek out permission to buy more of Occidental, then?

For one, it was close to running up against FERC-imposed investing limits.

Filings show Berkshire currently has a 20% stake in Occidental. It also has warrants to purchase another 83.9 million common shares and 100,000 shares of preferred stock that pay a hefty dividend—both of which it acquired after helping Occidental finance its 2019 acquisition of Anadarko.

If Berkshire were to exercise the warrants, its stake would rise to roughly 27%. That would have exceeded the 25% limit FERC allowed for before Friday’s ruling.

“This is not a company that’s going to raise regulators’ hackles,” said Cathy Seifert, an analyst for CFRA Research.

It should also give Berkshire breathing room in case share buybacks or other company moves decrease the amount of shares outstanding, thus increasing its percentage stake.

There are other reasons to doubt a Berkshire takeover of Occidental is imminent.

One of them is price, said David Kass, a professor of finance at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business.

So far, Berkshire has bought virtually all of its Occidental shares at a price in the range of $50 to $60, Mr. Kass said. The highest price Berkshire paid was $60.37 in July, according to filings.

Mr. Buffett is a well-known bargain-hunter, so it is difficult to imagine Berkshire rushing to buy more Occidental shares at the current price, Mr. Kass said. The shares are up 146% for the year, boosted by a rally in the price of oil, compared with an 11% decline for the S&P 500.

People familiar with deliberations at Occidental said the company’s leadership believes Mr. Buffett might consider making an offer if oil prices fall, bringing down Occidental’s stock price. If Mr. Buffett made an offer the company viewed as fair, a majority of the Occidental’s board would likely approve presenting it to shareholders, one of the people said.

Mr. Buffett didn’t respond to a request for comment. An Occidental spokesman declined to comment.

Mr. Buffett is currently represented as a passive shareholder in Occidental, based on the so-called 13G filing he has on record with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. If he were to change his intentions and hold meaningful discussions with the company about a full-on takeover, he would likely need to change his filing to a 13D, which is required by large shareholders who intend to get actively involved in the running of a company.

Taxes could also play a role in Mr. Buffett’s bid for a bigger minority stake in Occidental. Corporations with a stake of at least 20% in another company are eligible to deduct 65% of dividends received, up from the standard 50%.

Berkshire’s 20% stake also allows it to include a proportionate share of Occidental’s earnings in its own results. That could give its earnings a multibillion-dollar boost annually, based on analyst estimates of Occidental’s earnings. Before the most recent purchases, disclosed this month, Occidental fell below the 20% threshold for both benefits.

Since Berkshire started buying Occidental shares in February, Mr. Buffett has had a friendly and collaborative relationship with Ms. Hollub, and the pair speak regularly, according to people familiar with the matter.

When Mr. Buffett bought another slug of Occidental shares this spring, he called Ms. Hollub to let her know about the transaction, according to one of the people. Ms. Hollub was driving at the time and pulled over to take the call, the person said.

Mr. Buffett’s message was simple: “Keep doing what you’re doing,” he told Ms. Hollub.

Berkshire’s growing ties with Occidental have an unexpected link to Mr. Buffett’s earliest days of investing.

At age 11 in 1942, Mr. Buffett made his first investment: three shares of Cities Service’s preferred stock. Forty years later, Occidental went on to acquire the oil company, which Ms. Hollub had just joined the year before.

Mr. Buffett’s investment in Occidental this year shows his first stock purchases “coming full circle 80 years later,” Mr. Kass said.

Write to Akane Otani at akane.otani@wsj.com, Christopher M. Matthews at christopher.matthews@wsj.com and Cara Lombardo at cara.lombardo@wsj.com

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German economy minister rules out keeping nuclear plants running to save gas

German Economy and Climate Action Minister Robert Habeck speaks during a news conference on the future use of liquefied natural gas (LNG), in Berlin, Germany August 16, 2022. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner/File Photo

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  • Economy minister says nuclear plants save minimal gas
  • May have to keep plant running in Bavaria for network stability
  • Scholz says nuclear plant stress test results due within weeks

BERLIN, Aug 21 (Reuters) – German Economy Minister Robert Habeck ruled out on Sunday extending the lifespan of the country’s three remaining nuclear power plants in order to save gas, saying it would save at most 2 percent of gas use.

These savings were not sufficient to be worth reopening the debate about the exit from nuclear energy given the consensus on the topic, he said during a discussion with citizens at the government’s open-door day.

Former Chancellor Angela Merkel initiated legislation to halt the use of nuclear power by the end of this year after the Fukushima nuclear disaster of 2011 with a majority of voters in favour. But attitudes are shifting amid fears of an energy crisis this winter following a decline in Russian gas deliveries – with the three-way coalition itself divided on the matter. read more

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“It is the wrong decision given the little we would save,” said Habeck, a member of the Greens party, which has it roots in the anti-nuclear movement of the 1970s and 80s.

On the other side of the debate, Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the pro-business Free Democrats reiterated his stance that it would be better to extend the lifespans of nuclear plants for a limited time than to bring coal plants back online.

“We shouldn’t be too picky, but reserve all possibilities,” he said, adding that he would be open to an extension of “several years” in the current circumstances.

Separately to the debate over gas savings measures, Habeck said he was open to extending the lifespan of one nuclear power plant in Bavaria if a stress test showed this was necessary to ensure the stability and supply of the electricity network in winter, he said.

Habeck accused the southern state and manufacturing hub, which depends on gas-fired power plants and has few coal-fired plants, of possibly contributing to problems by failing build up wind power production and improve the network.

The fact that Germany is having to supply France with electricity due to a drop in nuclear output is another factor at play.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the result of the stress test should come towards the end of the month, or the beginning of next month – and only then would a decision be made.

The situation in France, where nearly half its reactors are offline because of corrosion problems and maintenance, showed how problematic the technology was though, he said.

New plants were so expensive that they pushed up electricity prices unlike renewable energies, he said.

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Reporting by Markus Wacket and Andreas Rinke; Writing by Sarah Marsh; editing by David Evans

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Threat of energy shortages mount as Moscow stops gas supply to Europe for 3 days

The Russia state-owned energy giant Gazprom said Friday that it will once again shut off gas supplies to Europe as concerns mount over European energy shortages ahead to the winter months.

Gas supplied through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will cease from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2 for “routine maintenance” but comes just one month after the energy company restored natural gas to a fifth of the pipeline’s capacity after a maintenance closure. 

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline connects Russia to Europe. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber / AP Newsroom)

RUSSIA’S GAZPROM CUTS GAS TO GERMANY, DENMARK OVER RUBLE FIGHT

Russia said the gas shut off was down to technical problems on the pipeline – which links western Russia and Germany – but German officials rejected these claims and said it was a political move amid its war in Ukraine.

Moscow has cut gas to several European nations including Germany, Denmark, Poland, Bulgaria, Finland and the Netherlands after they refused to pay for energy supplies in the Russian ruble – a stipulation Russian President Vladimir Putin began enforcing in March.

UKRAINE TO DOUBLE ENERGY EXPORTS AMID RUSSIAN GAS CUTS TO EUROPE

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting on economic issues via videoconference at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia, on Tuesday, June 7. (Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP / Associated Press)

Natural gas prices, which have skyrocketed in 2022, rose again on Friday making the price for the energy commodity twice as high as one year ago.

Countries in the European Union have not only seen widespread inflation and the looming threat of a recession, but officials are concerned how the natural gas shortages will impact Europeans in the coming winter months. 

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Germany’s Economy Ministry said it was “monitoring the situation in close cooperation with the Federal Network Agency,” which regulates the gas market. “Gas flows through Nord Stream 1 are currently unchanged at 20%.”

Gazprom said the planned maintenance on a key compressor station along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be conducted in coordination with its German partner Siemens Energy.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Cleared to Buy as Much as Half of Occidental’s Shares

In a regulatory filing Friday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said that Berkshire Hathaway had asked for and received its permission to buy up to 50% of the driller’s shares. Berkshire has been loading up on Occidental’s shares this year, amassing roughly 20% of the company’s stock, public filings show, leaving many analysts to speculate whether Mr. Buffett would seek control of the company, one of the largest U.S. oil producers.

Occidental’s shares jumped to lead stock gains among the S&P 500 Friday, rising 9.9% after the publication of the ruling. The company’s stock has risen about 146% this year, far and away tops in the S&P 500 stock index, which is down 11% this year.

Berkshire requested the authorization on July 11 and said at the time it owned approximately 18.72% of the outstanding common shares of Occidental, according to the federal ruling. Berkshire has since added shares and earlier this month said in a securities filing that it held roughly 20% of Occidental’s common stock. Berkshire also owns warrants to buy another big slug of Occidental’s common stock as well as $10 billion worth of preferred shares that pay Berkshire about $800 million annually, filings show.

“It is concluded that the Proposed Transaction is consistent with the public interest,” Carlos D. Clay from the FERC’s Office of Energy Market Regulation wrote in the filing.

A spokesman for Occidental confirmed that Berkshire could now buy up to 50% of common shares and didn’t comment further. A Berkshire Hathaway representative didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Mr. Buffett has invested billions in renewables such as wind-farm projects through Berkshire’s energy unit and has also added oil companies to the holding company’s portfolio in recent years.

Chevron Corp.

is now one of Berkshire’s largest stock investments.

Occidental has raked in high profits from elevated oil prices, netting $3.7 billion in the second quarter. The profits are a dramatic turnaround for the company, which lost around $14.8 billion in 2020 after the global pandemic gutted oil demand. Berkshire’s stock purchases, as well as that of the many investors who follow Mr. Buffett’s moves, have helped lift Occidental’s shares to the head of the broad rally in energy stocks.

Occidental’s ill-timed $38 billion deal to take over rival Anadarko Corp. in 2019 loaded the company with debt, leaving it in a perilous position as oil prices tumbled during the pandemic. Chief Executive

Vicki Hollub

made deep spending cuts over the past two years, moved to rein in growth and focused on using cash to pay down debt.

The company has repaid $8 billion in debt this year to bring it to $22 billion, down from nearly $36 billion a year ago, according to the company and analysts. Occidental’s endeavor to reach investment-grade status and its cash-generating capabilities have made it an attractive target for Mr. Buffett, said Neal Dingmann, an analyst with Truist Securities. “It’s a great sort of hedge against a lot of his other businesses to own such a high free-cash-flowing business,” he said.

Occidental has raked in high profits from elevated oil prices, netting $3.7 billion in the second quarter.



Photo:

Reuters Staff/REUTERS

Mr. Buffett has made no secret of his admiration for Ms. Hollub, describing her as one of the best executives in the business. In 2019, he acquired $10 billion in preferred stock to help the company pay for the Anadarko deal.

“What Vicki Hollub was saying made nothing but sense,” Mr. Buffett said at Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting in April. Occidental looked like “a good place to put Berkshire’s money,” he added.

Mr. Buffett had to show his hand to the market because power plants controlled by both Occidental and Berkshire Hathaway feed the same grid in Louisiana. Occidental owns a power plant in Taft, La., that feeds its chemical plant next door. Leftover power is sold on the local grid, which Berkshire Hathaway Energy plants also feed.

FERC ruled that since Occidental’s plant accounts for just 0.48% of the capacity connected to the region’s grid, a combination with Berkshire “will not have an adverse effect on competition” in the local electricity market. Mr. Buffett had to ask, though, before beefing up Berkshire’s Occidental stake.

In recent years, Occidental has ventured into renewables through its Oxy Low Carbon Ventures unit. This new focus dovetails with Berkshire’s own investments in renewable energy and puts Mr. Buffett’s company in a position to benefit from tax breaks, said

Bill Smead,

chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management.

“We see Berkshire’s filing as a vote of confidence in the oil macro and the value proposition in energy equities,” said Kevin MacCurdy, a managing director at investment firm Pickering Energy Partners.

Write to Benoît Morenne at benoit.morenne@wsj.com and Ryan Dezember at ryan.dezember@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Surprising attractiveness of hurdle to developing safe, clean and carbon-free energy

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

Scientists have discovered the remarkable impact of reversing a standard method for combatting a key obstacle to producing fusion energy on Earth. Theorists at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) have proposed doing precisely the opposite of the prescribed procedure to sharply improve future results.

Tearing holes in plasma

The problem, called “locked tearing modes,” occurs in all today’s tokamaks, doughnut-shaped magnetic facilities designed to create and control the virtually unlimited fusion power that drives the sun and stars. The instability-caused modes rotate with the hot, charged plasma— the fourth state of matter composed of free electrons and atomic nuclei that fuels fusion reactions—and tear holes called islands in the magnetic field that confines the gas, allowing the leakage of key heat.

These islands grow larger when the modes stop rotating and lock into place, a growth rate that increases the heat loss, reduces the plasma performance and can cause disruptions that allow the energy stored in the plasma to strike and damage the tokamak’s inner walls. To avoid such risks, researchers now beam microwaves into the plasma to stabilize the modes before they can lock.

However, the PPPL findings strongly suggest that researchers stabilize the modes in large, next-generation tokamaks after they have locked. In today’s tokamaks, “these modes lock more quickly than people had thought and it becomes much harder to stabilize them while they’re still rotating,” said Richard Nies, a doctoral student in the Princeton Program in Plasma Physics and lead author of a Nuclear Fusion paper that lays out the surprising findings.

Another drawback, he added, is that “these microwaves increase their width by refracting off the plasma, making the stabilization of the mode while it’s rotating even less efficient today, and this problem has become more exacerbated in recent years.”

Accompanying these issues is the fact that in large future tokamaks like ITER, the international facility under construction in the south of France, “the plasma is so huge that the rotation is much slower and these modes lock pretty quickly when they’re still pretty small,” Nies said. “So it will be much more efficient to switch up the stabilization package in big future tokamaks and let them first lock and then stabilize them.”

That reversal could facilitate the fusion process, which scientists around the world are seeking to reproduce. The process combines light elements in the form of plasma to release vast amounts of energy. “This provides a different way of looking at things and could be a much more effective way to deal with the problem,” said Allan Reiman, a distinguished research fellow and co-author of the paper. “People should take more seriously the possibility of allowing the islands to lock,” Reiman said.

Close to disrupting

The recommended technique is unlikely to work in today’s tokamaks because tearing mode islands grow so fast and are so large when they lock in these facilities that the plasma is close to disrupting once it has locked. That’s why researchers must now use large amounts of power to stabilize the modes at the cost of limiting fusion output. By contrast, the slow growth of islands in next-generation tokamaks “leaves a long way to go before you have a disruption so there’s a lot of time to stabilize the mode,” Nies said.

Once the modes in future tokamaks are locked in place microwaves can target them directly instead of stabilizing them only when they rotate past the microwave beam in current facilities. “These theoretical calculations show the efficiency of what we are proposing,” Nies pointed out.

What now is needed are experiments to test the proposed course of action, he said. “We would not want to turn on ITER and only then find out which strategy works. There is real opportunity to explore the physics that we address in current devices.”


State-of-the-art computer code could advance efforts to harness fusion energy


More information:
Richard Nies et al, On the stabilisation of locked tearing modes in ITER and other large tokamaks, Nuclear Fusion (2022). DOI: 10.1088/1741-4326/ac79bd

Citation:
Surprising attractiveness of hurdle to developing safe, clean and carbon-free energy (2022, August 19)
retrieved 19 August 2022
from https://phys.org/news/2022-08-hurdle-safe-carbon-free-energy.html

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Energy bills are squeezing businesses and people as UK costs soar

A high street decorated with British Union Jack bunting in Penistone, UK. The End Fuel Poverty Coalition has warned “a tsunami of fuel poverty will hit the country this winter.”

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

LONDON — Facing soaring energy bills, rising costs and rapidly declining consumer purchasing power, small businesses across the U.K. are struggling to make ends meet.

New data on Wednesday showed U.K. inflation jumped to a 40-year high of 10.1% in July as food and energy costs continued to soar, exacerbating the country’s cost-of-living crisis.

The Bank of England expects consumer price inflation to top out at 13.3% in October, with the country’s average energy bills (set via a price cap) expected to rise sharply in the fourth quarter to eventually exceed an annual £4,266 ($5,170) in early 2023.

On Wednesday, a director of U.K. energy regulator Ofgem quit over its decision to add hundreds of pounds to household bills, accusing the watchdog of failing to strike the “right balance between the interests of consumers and the interests of suppliers.”

Real wages in the U.K. fell by an annual 3% in the second quarter of 2022, the sharpest decline on record, as wage increases failed to keep pace with the surging cost of living.

A new survey published Friday also showed consumer confidence falling to its lowest level since records began in 1974.

‘Absolute madness’

“While the energy price caps do not apply to businesses directly, millions of small business owners are still experiencing increased energy bills at a time when costs are rising in most operational areas,” said Alan Thomas, U.K. CEO at insurance firm Simply Business.

“Simultaneously, consumer purchasing power is going down as Brits cut back on non-essential spending, harming the books of SME [small and medium-sized enterprise] owners.”

This assessment was echoed by Christopher Gammon, e-commerce manager at Lincs Aquatics — a Lincolnshire-based store and warehouse providing aquariums, ponds and marine livestock.

The business has seen its energy costs rise by 90% so far since the war in Ukraine began, Gammon told CNBC on Thursday, and its owners are provisioning for further increases in the coming months.

“We are combating the rising cost with switching everything to LED, solar panels, wind turbines (planning in process) and closing down unused systems,” Gammon said.

“We have also had to increase the price of products — most of these have been livestock as they are now costing more to look after.”

Customers are increasingly withdrawing from keeping fish and reptiles due to the cost of maintenance, and on Wednesday the store had a customer bring in a snake they could no longer afford to care for.

The spiraling costs forced Lincs Aquatics to close a store in East Yorkshire, laying off several workers, while trying to offer pay rises to staff at its two remaining locations in Lincolnshire in order to help them through the crisis.

The business is also working to expand its online shop due to rising in-store upkeep costs, as heating water for marine aquariums and purchasing pump equipment become ever more expensive.

In early July, a quarterly survey from the British Chambers of Commerce found that 82% of businesses in the U.K. saw inflation as a growing concern for their business, with growth in sales, investment intentions and longer-term turnover confidence all slowing.

“Businesses face an unprecedented convergence of cost pressures, with the main drivers coming from raw materials, fuel, utilities, taxes, and labor,” said BCC Head of Research David Bharier.

“The continuing supply chain crisis, exacerbated by conflict in Ukraine and lockdowns in China, has further compounded this.”

BCC Director General Shevaun Haviland added that “the red lights on our economic dashboard are starting to flash,” with almost every indicator deteriorating since the March survey.

Phil Speed, an independent distributor for multiservice company Utility Warehouse, based in Skegness, England, liaises with brokers to find energy deals for business clients.

He told CNBC earlier this week that for the first time in 10 years, he had been unable to obtain a better deal for a client than their out-of-contract rate — the typically expensive rates paid when a business or individual does not have a contracted deal in place.

“I think the unit rate she was quoting was 60p [pence] a unit for gas, which is just ridiculous. I’d imagine a year ago, we’d have been looking at 5 or 6p. It’s just absolute madness,” Speed said.

“We’ve got no idea what’s going to be presented to us, because we’ve got no idea what’s going to happen. The price is just going ballistic. No-one’s going to buy it.”

The cost of gas for both businesses and consumers are only expected to increase through the colder winter months. Speed noted that local cafes cooking on gas will likely struggle, as they have no choice but to continue using it, unless they can replace gas appliances with electric ones.

‘Scream very loudly at somebody’

Rail strikes have already brought the country to a halt on multiple days throughout the summer and look set to continue, while postal workers, telecoms engineers and dock workers have all voted to strike as inflation erodes real wages.

Conservative leadership favorite Liz Truss was earlier this month forced into a dramatic U-turn on a plan to cut public sector pay outside London, which would have axed wages for teachers, nurses, police and the armed forces alike.

Local authorities recently offered state school support staff a flat pay rise of £1,925 per year, meaning a 10.5% increase for the lowest-paid staff and just over 4% for the highest earners, after pressure from three of the country’s largest unions.

One woman in her early fifties – a member of support staff at a state school in Lincolnshire who asked not to be named due to the sensitive situation and concerns on public reprisals – told CNBC that years of real-terms pay cuts had left many low-paid public sector workers struggling to make ends meet.

The British government in 2010, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, announced a two-year pay freeze for public sector workers, followed by a 1% average cap on public sector pay awards which was lifted in 2017, with average pay rises increasing to roughly 2% by 2020.

While the 10.5% rise for the lowest-paid school support staff will ease the pressure, the woman said her energy costs had doubled and her private landlord had attempted to increase her rent by £40 per month, which she had not agreed to and which may mean she would need to sell her car to cover basic living expenses.

She called on the government to temporarily reduce the “standing charge,” a fixed daily amount households have to pay on most gas and electricity bills no matter how much they actually use, and to up its efforts to recoup one-off “windfall taxes” from energy companies such as BP, Shell and Centrica, which are reporting record profits..

“I think this is an even bigger crisis than [the Covid-19 pandemic], because this is going to affect not just lower earners, but maybe even middle earners as well, because I don’t see how anybody can absorb those kinds of energy costs,” she said.

The pressure being exerted on businesses and the government to increase wages in the face of skyrocketing living costs has raised further concerns about inflation becoming entrenched – but this consideration is far removed from the reality of working families increasingly being forced to cut back on essentials.

“It’s alright saying ‘we can’t keep putting people’s pay up, that will make the cost of living worse,’ but the cost of living is out of control already, and the only way for people to survive is if their wages increase,” the woman said.

“I know it’s a catch 22, but I don’t see a way around that really — you’ve got to eat.”

The situation in recent months, even before the anticipated worsening of the energy crisis, has already begun to take a toll.

“I just think I’m a very honest, hardworking person. I’ve never committed a crime, always done things right, but now I’m starting to feel like that gets you nowhere in this country,” she said.

“For the first time in my life, I want to go out and march in protest and scream very loudly at somebody, and you just think ‘what does it take?'”

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Ukraine Presses U.N. Over ‘Nuclear Blackmail’ at Russian-Occupied Plant

ODESSA, Ukraine—Ukrainian President

Volodymyr Zelensky

met with the leaders of Turkey and the United Nations on Thursday to discuss food shipments from Ukraine and the increasingly tense situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, as Ukraine continued to hit Russian logistics with artillery strikes.

Following the meetings in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, Mr. Zelensky said he pressed U.N. Secretary-General

António Guterres

about the nuclear plant, which Russia has occupied since the early days of the war. Explosions around the plant in recent days have knocked one reactor off the power grid and sparked fears of a nuclear catastrophe.

“Particular attention was paid to the topic of Russia’s nuclear blackmail at the Zaporizhzhia NPP,” Mr. Zelensky wrote on social media. He said the two men also discussed allegations that Ukrainian citizens were being forcibly deported to Russia and the treatment of captured Ukrainian soldiers.

Russia has said Ukrainian forces threaten the nuclear plant’s security.

After meeting with Turkish President

Recep Tayyip Erdogan,

Mr. Zelensky said they had discussed ways to protect Ukrainian grain that is being exported, as well as other security issues. Ankara helped broker with the U.N. a deal to lift a Russian naval blockade on Ukrainian exports, which had led to food shortages throughout the Middle East and Africa.

“This is a strong message of support from such a powerful country as Turkey,” Mr. Zelensky wrote on Telegram.

The Turkish president has sought to position himself as a mediator in the war, with Turkey hosting two rounds of unsuccessful peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Mr. Erdogan has said he hopes the U.N.-backed initiative that led to the resumption of Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports earlier this month could be a starting point for a broader peace between Russia and Ukraine.

At a news conference following the talks, he said he had “reiterated our support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.” He added: “I have been preserving my belief that the war would come to an end at the negotiation table.”

Ukraine has exported 622,000 tons of grain and other food products from the three ports covered by the export agreement, the Turkish defense ministry said Thursday.

During the news conference, Mr. Guterres said “there is no solution to the global food crisis without insuring full global access to Ukraine’s food products and Russian food and fertilizer.” Global wheat prices, he said, have fallen up to 8% since the accord was signed.

Turkish military officers are helping to monitor implementation of the agreement alongside their Ukrainian and Russian counterparts and U.N. officials stationed at a control center that was set up in Istanbul in July. Four more ships loaded with agricultural products sailed from Ukrainian ports on Wednesday under the deal, according to Turkish officials.

Mr. Erdogan is increasingly posing as a friend to both sides in the Ukraine conflict. Turkey has delivered weapons to Ukraine, including armed drones that have been instrumental in Ukraine’s battle against the Russian invasion. In February, Turkey also invoked its rights under an international treaty to bar additional Russian warships from the Black Sea.

The leaders of the United Nations and Turkey met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in western Ukraine on Thursday. The group discussed food shipments and rising tensions at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Photo: Handout/AFP/Getty Images

His visit to Ukraine comes less than two weeks after a visit to Russia where he held talks on the Ukraine war and the grain initiative with Russia’s President

Vladimir Putin.

“This will be another opportunity for Mr. Erdogan to be active in this mediation process,” said

Aydin Sezer,

a former diplomat who served in Turkey’s embassy in Moscow. “Erdogan is now the only person who is credited by the Kremlin when it comes to Ukrainian business.”

Turkish and Ukrainian officials also signed a memorandum of understanding calling for Turkey to participate in Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction. The first project being considered under the agreement is the reconstruction of a bridge connecting Kyiv with the towns of Irpin and Bucha, where Russian soldiers carried out mass killings in March, the Ukrainian presidency said.

“Turkey is our strategic ally. We are grateful to our Turkish partners for their willingness to cooperate in the recovery of the infrastructure destroyed by Russia,” said Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister

Oleksandr Kubrakov

according to the Ukrainian president’s office.

Earlier on Thursday, the Ukrainian military’s Southern Command said that it had struck an ammunition depot in the village of Bilohirka, near the front line of fighting in the Kherson region. The rocket strike is the latest in a series of attacks that have targeted logistics in the Russian-occupied south—part of a strategy to starve Russian troops in the region of supplies and force them to withdraw from the territory they are holding west of the Dnipro River.

Unidentified civilians exhumed from a mass grave after Russia’s occupation of Bucha, near Kyiv, were reburied Wednesday.



Photo:

Evgeniy Maloletka/Associated Press

Emergency workers preparing for a potential nuclear disaster in Zaporizhzhia took part in a presentation watched by Ukrainian officials.



Photo:

Justyna Mielnikiewicz/MAPS for The Wall Street Journal

A day earlier, the Ukrainian military posted video to social media that appeared to show the aftermath of a long-range rocket strike on Nova Kakhovka, also in the Kherson region. And on Tuesday, pro-Ukrainian saboteurs destroyed an ammunition depot in Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014. Video on social media Thursday also showed large explosions overnight in Russian-occupied Amvrosiivka, in the eastern Donetsk region; Ukrainian officials didn’t immediately comment on the cause.

As Ukrainian strikes inside Russian-held territory increase, Russian forces are attempting to crack down on pro-Ukrainian insurgents. A Ukrainian army veteran was arrested in the Kherson region on suspicion of sending locations of Russian troops and bases to Ukrainian forces, Russian state-run news agencies reported on Thursday. In addition, Russia’s FSB intelligence agency on Wednesday said it had detained six Russian citizens in Crimea who belonged to a cell that spread what it called terrorist ideology with the support of Ukrainian emissaries, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

Russia has said it would give International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors access to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant—but only if they come via Russian-controlled territory and not through Kyiv, a plan that Ukraine opposes.

The Russian Defense Ministry on Thursday said Ukraine was planning a false flag provocation for Friday at the plant to frame the occupying forces. Maj. Gen.

Igor Konashenkov,

a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, didn’t provide evidence to support the claim. The Russian-installed head of the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia, meanwhile, said a plan was in place to evacuate residents in case of an attack on the plant. Kyiv didn’t immediately respond to the claim.


Russia’s Defense Ministry also said Thursday that Moscow would consider shutting down the plant if the situation surrounding the facility continues to deteriorate.

The Ukrainian government, international nuclear-power watchdogs and the plant’s staff have accused Russia of stealing Zaporizhzhia’s power by severing its connection to Ukraine’s remaining territory.

In Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine, a Russian missile hit a residential building in the Saltivka neighborhood on Wednesday night, killing seven people and injuring at least 17 more, according to the city’s mayor. More missiles launched from Russia hit the city early Thursday morning, killing two more people. Russia’s Defense Ministry said its forces were targeting foreign fighters.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Thursday it has deployed three MiG-31 combat jets armed with hypersonic Kinzhal ballistic missiles to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, a chunk of Russia wedged between North Atlantic Treaty Organization members Lithuania and Poland, according to Russian state news agencies. Such missiles, when fired from jets, have farther reach than the ground-launched missiles already deployed in Kaliningrad.

Ukrainian fighters took part in a military drill on the country’s south coast.



Photo:

oleksandr gimanov/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Write to Ian Lovett at ian.lovett@wsj.com, Jared Malsin at jared.malsin@wsj.com and Evan Gershkovich at evan.gershkovich@wsj.com

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