Tag Archives: economy and economic indicators

Business

Alan Greenspan says US recession is likely

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New York
CNN
 — 

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes a US recession is the “most likely outcome” of the Fed’s aggressive rate hike regime meant to curb inflation. He joins a growing chorus of economists predicting imminent economic downturn.

His views are particularly important. Not only did Greenspan serve five terms as Fed chair under four different presidents between 1987 and 2006, but he was the last chair to successfully navigate a soft landing, in 1994. In the 12 months that followed February 1994 Greenspan nearly doubled interest rates to 6% and managed to keep the economy steady, avoiding recession.

Greenspan, now 96, said in a note this week that he doubts this current bout of hikes will result in a repeat performance.

The last two months of data showed that prices are beginning to decelerate – good news but not good enough, he said. “I don’t think it will warrant a Fed reversal that is substantial enough to avoid at least a mild recession,” said Greenspan, now a senior economic adviser to Advisors Capital Management, in commentary released on the company’s website Tuesday.

The Fed hiked interest rates seven times last year, increasing the rate that banks charge each other for overnight borrowing to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, the highest since 2007. Fed officials still expect to raise rates by another percentage point, according to projections released during their December monetary policy meeting.

Wage increases and, by extension, employment, “still need to soften further for a pullback in inflation to be anything more than transitory,” said Greenspan. “So we may have a brief period of calm on the inflation front, but I think it will be too little too late.” Unemployment rates remain near historic lows, holding at 3.7% in November. New employment data is set to be released Friday morning.

Greenspan doubts the Fed will loosen interest rates soon because “inflation could flare up again and we would be back at square one,” he said. “Furthermore, this could potentially damage the Federal Reserve’s credibility as a purveyor of stable prices, especially if the action were seen to be taken merely to protect the stock market rather than in response to truly unstable financial conditions.”

He does see some good news for investors on the horizon. Markets won’t be nearly as chaotic in 2023 as they were last year, he said. “I believe 2022 would be a tough year to top with respect to market volatility,” he remarked.

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World

CNN Exclusive: A single Iranian attack drone found to contain parts from more than a dozen US companies

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Washington
CNN
 — 

Parts made by more than a dozen US and Western companies were found inside a single Iranian drone downed in Ukraine last fall, according to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment obtained exclusively by CNN.

The assessment, which was shared with US government officials late last year, illustrates the extent of the problem facing the Biden administration, which has vowed to shut down Iran’s production of drones that Russia is launching by the hundreds into Ukraine.

CNN reported last month that the White House has created an administration-wide task force to investigate how US and Western-made technology – ranging from smaller equipment like semiconductors and GPS modules to larger parts like engines – has ended up in Iranian drones.

Of the 52 components Ukrainians removed from the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, 40 appear to have been manufactured by 13 different American companies, according to the assessment.

The remaining 12 components were manufactured by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan, and China, according to the assessment.

The options for combating the issue are limited. The US has for years imposed tough export control restrictions and sanctions to prevent Iran from obtaining high-end materials. Now US officials are looking at enhanced enforcement of those sanctions, encouraging companies to better monitor their own supply chains and, perhaps most importantly, trying to identify the third-party distributors taking these products and re-selling them to bad actors.

NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson told CNN in a statement that “We are looking at ways to target Iranian UAV production through sanctions, export controls, and talking to private companies whose parts have been used in the production. We are assessing further steps we can take in terms of export controls to restrict Iran’s access to technologies used in drones.”

There is no evidence suggesting that any of those companies are running afoul of US sanctions laws and knowingly exporting their technology to be used in the drones. Even with many companies promising increased monitoring, controlling where these highly ubiquitous parts end up in the global market is often very difficult for manufacturers, experts told CNN. Companies may also not know what they are looking for if the US government has not caught up with and sanctioned the actors buying and selling the products for illicit purposes.

And the Ukrainian intelligence assessment is further proof that despite sanctions, Iran is still finding an abundance of commercially available technology. For example, the company that built the downed drone, Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries Corporation (HESA), has been under US sanctions since 2008.

One major issue is that it is far easier for Russian and Iranian officials to set up shell companies to use to purchase the equipment and evade sanctions than it is for Western governments to uncover those front companies, which can sometimes take years, experts said.

“This is a game of Whack-a-Mole. And the United States government needs to get incredibly good at Whack-a- Mole, period,” said former Pentagon official Gregory Allen, who now serves as Director of the Artificial Intelligence Governance Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “This is a core competency of the US national security establishment – or it had better become one.”

Allen, who recently co-authored an investigation into the efficacy of US export controls, said ultimately, “there is no substitute for robust, in-house capabilities in the US government.”

He cautioned that it is not an easy job. The microelectronics industry relies heavily on third party distributors and resellers that are difficult to track, and the microchips and other small devices ending up in so many of the Iranian and Russian drones are not only inexpensive and widely available, they are also easily hidden.

“Why do smugglers like diamonds?” Allen said. “Because they’re small, lightweight, and worth a ton of money. And unfortunately, computer chips have similar properties.” Success won’t necessarily be measured in stopping 100% of transactions, he added, but rather in making it more difficult and expensive for bad actors to get what they need.

The rush to stop Iran from manufacturing the drones is growing more urgent as Russia continues to deploy them across Ukraine with relentless ferocity, targeting both civilian areas and key infrastructure. Russia is also preparing to establish its own factory to produce them with Iran’s help, according to US officials. On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukrainian forces had shot down more than 80 Iranian drones in just two days.

Zelensky also said that Ukraine had intelligence that Russia “is planning a prolonged attack with Shaheds,” betting that it will lead to the “exhaustion of our people, our air defense, our energy sector.”

A separate probe of Iranian drones downed in Ukraine, conducted by the UK-based investigative firm Conflict Armament Research, found that 82% of the components had been manufactured by companies based in the US. 

Damien Spleeters, the Deputy Director of Operations at Conflict Armament Research, told CNN that sanctions will only be effective if governments continue to monitor what parts are being used and how they got there.

“Iran and Russia are going to try to go around those sanctions and will try to change their acquisition channels,” Spleeters said. “And that’s precisely what we want to focus on: getting in the field and opening up those systems, tracing the components, and monitoring for changes.”

Experts also told CNN that if the US government wants to beef up enforcement of the sanctions, it will need to devote more resources and hire more employees who can be on the ground to track the vendors and resellers of these products.

“Nobody has really thought about investing more in agencies like the Bureau of Industry Security, which were really sleepy parts of the DC national security establishment for a few decades,” Allen, of CSIS, said, referring to a branch of the Commerce Department that deals primarily with export controls enforcement. “And now, suddenly, they’re at the forefront of national security technology competition, and they’re not being resourced remotely in that vein.”

According to the Ukrainian assessment, among the US-made components found in the drone were nearly two dozen parts built by Texas Instruments, including microcontrollers, voltage regulators, and digital signal controllers; a GPS module by Hemisphere GNSS; a microprocessor by NXP USA Inc.; and circuit board components by Analog Devices and Onsemi. Also discovered were components built by International Rectifier – now owned by the German company Infineon – and the Swiss company U-Blox.

CNN sent emailed requests for comment last month to all the companies identified by the Ukrainians. The six that responded emphasized that they condemn any unauthorized use of their products, while noting that combating the diversion and misuse of their semiconductors and other microelectronics is an industry-wide challenge that they are working to confront.

“TI is not selling any products into Russia, Belarus or Iran,” Texas Instruments said in a statement. ” TI complies with applicable laws and regulations in the countries where we operate, and partners with law enforcement organizations as necessary and appropriate. Additionally, we do not support or condone the use of our products in applications they weren’t designed for.”

Gregor Rodehuser, a spokesperson for the German semiconductor manufacturer Infineon, told CNN that “our position is very clear: Infineon condemns the Russian aggression against Ukraine. It is a blatant violation of international law and an attack on the values of humanity.” He added that “apart from the direct business it proves difficult to control consecutive sales throughout the entire lifetime of a product. Nevertheless, we instruct our customers including distributors to only conduct consecutive sales in line with applicable rules.”

Analog Devices, a semiconductor company headquartered in Massachusetts, said in a statement that they are intensifying efforts “to identify and counter this activity, including implementing enhanced monitoring and audit processes, and taking enforcement action where appropriate…to help to reduce unauthorized resale, diversion, and unintended misuse of our products.”

Jacey Zuniga, director of corporate communications for the Austin, Texas-based semiconductor company NXP USA, said that the company “complies with all applicable export control restrictions and sanctions imposed by the countries in which we operate. Military applications are not a focus area for NXP. As a company, we are vehemently opposed to our products being used for human rights violations.”

Phoenix, Arizona-based semiconductor manufacturing company Onsemi also said it complies with “applicable export control and economic sanctions laws and regulations and does not sell directly or indirectly to Russia, Belarus or Iran nor to any foreign military organizations. We cooperate with law enforcement and government agencies as necessary and appropriate to demonstrate how Onsemi conducts business in accordance with all legal requirements and that we hold ourselves to the highest standards of ethical conduct.”

Swiss semiconductor manufacturer U-Blox also said in a statement that its products are for commercial use only, and that the use of its products for Russian military equipment “is in clear breach of u-blox’s conditions of sale applicable to customers and distributors alike.”

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Business

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried arrives in court to face charges

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New York
CNN
 — 

Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced founder of bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, has arrived at a Manhattan federal court where he is set to appear to face charges that include cheating investors out of billions of dollars.

Authorities have accused Bankman-Fried of stealing customer funds from FTX to cover loans taken out by Alameda Research, FTX’s affiliated crypto hedge fund. They also say he used those funds to make investments in other companies and donate to campaigns of politicians from both parties to influence public policy.

In public statements following FTX’s collapse in November, Bankman-Fried has insisted that he didn’t commit fraud and was unaware that customer funds were being used improperly.

He is expected to plead not guilty Tuesday.

Two senior executives from Bankman-Fried’s crypto businesses — Gary Wang, the co-founder of FTX, and Caroline Ellison, who served as Alameda’s CEO — have pleaded guilty to multiple criminal charges and are cooperating with federal prosecutors.

Ellison apologized while entering her plea last month, telling the court that she “agreed with Mr. Bankman-Fried and others to not publicly disclose the true nature of the relationship between Alameda and FTX, including Alameda’s credit arrangement.”

As part of his release, Bankman-Fried is under house arrest at his parents’ home in Palot Alto, California. He is wearing a monitoring device and has surrendered his passport.

He could face up to 115 years in prison if convicted on all charges.

Last month, a US judge released him on a $250 million bond in his first appearance on American soil since his arrest in the Bahamas, where he lived and ran his businesses.

Bankman-Fried’s parents, both law professors at Stanford who co-signed his bond, have “become the target of intense media scrutiny, harassment, and threats,” defense lawyers wrote in a letter to the court, while asking to redact the names of two other co-signers, known as “sureties.”

“There is serious cause for concern that the two additional sureties would face similar intrusions on their privacy as well as threats and harassment if their names appear unredacted on their bonds or their identities are otherwise publicly disclosed,” the letter states.

Prosecutors allege that Bankman-Fried orchestrated “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history,” stealing billions of dollars from FTX customers to cover losses at its sister hedge fund, Alameda Research.

FTX and Alameda both filed for bankruptcy in December after investors rushed to pull their deposits from the exchange, sparking a liquidity crisis and triggering contagion across the crypto industry.

FTX’s new CEO, John Ray III, who made his name overseeing the liquidation of Enron in the early 2000s, said in a congressional hearing that customer funds deposited on the FTX site were commingled with funds at Alameda, which made a number of speculative, high-risk bets.

Ray described the situation at the two companies as “old-fashioned embezzlement” at the hands of a small group of “grossly inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals.”

— CNN’s Allison Morrow and Samantha Murphy Kelly contributed to this report.

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Business

From the unwinding of zero-Covid to economic recovery: What to watch in China in 2023

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Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Sign up here.


Hong Kong
CNN
 — 

After a tumultuous end to a momentous and challenging year, China heads into 2023 with a great deal of uncertainty – and potentially a glimpse of light at the end of the pandemic tunnel.

The chaos unleashed by leader Xi Jinping’s abrupt and ill-prepared exit from zero-Covid is spilling over into the new year, as large swathes of the country face an unprecedented Covid wave.

But the haphazard reopening also offers a glimmer of hope for many: after three years of stifling Covid restrictions and self-imposed global isolation, life in China may finally return to normal as the nation joins the rest of the world in learning to live with the virus.

“We have now entered a new phase of Covid response where tough challenges remain,” Xi said in a nationally televised New Year’s Eve speech. “Everyone is holding on with great fortitude, and the light of hope is right in front of us. Let’s make an extra effort to pull through, as perseverance and solidarity mean victory.”

Xi had previously staked his political legitimacy on zero-Covid. Now, as his costly strategy gets dismantled in an abrupt U-turn following nationwide protests against it, many are left questioning his wisdom. The protests, which in some places saw rare demands for Xi and the Communist Party to “step down,” may have ended, but the overriding sense of frustration has yet to dissipate.

His New Year speech comes as China’s lockdown-battered economy faces more immediate strain from a spiraling outbreak that has hit factories and businesses, ahead of what is likely to be a long and complicated road to economic recovery.

Its tightly-sealed borders are gradually opening up, and Chinese tourists are eager to explore the world again, but some countries appear cautious to receive them, imposing new requirements for a negative Covid test before travel. And just how quickly – or keenly – global visitors will return to China is another question.

Xi, who recently reemerged on the world stage after securing a third term in power, has signaled he hopes to mend frayed relations with the West, but his nationalist agenda and “no-limits friendship” with Russia is likely to complicate matters.

As 2023 begins, CNN takes a look at what to watch in China in the year ahead.

The most urgent and daunting task facing China in the new year is how to handle the fallout from its botched exit from zero-Covid, amid an outbreak that threatens to claim hundreds of thousands of lives and undermine the credibility of Xi and his Communist Party.

The sudden lifting of restrictions last month led to an explosion of cases, with little preparation in place to deal with the surging numbers of patients and deaths.

The country’s fragile heath system is scrambling to cope: fever and cold medicines are hard to find, hospitals are overwhelmed, doctors and nurses are stretched to the limit, while crematoriums are struggling to keep up with an influx of bodies.

And experts warn the worst is yet to come. While some major metropolises like Beijing may have seen the peak of the outbreak, less-developed cities and the vast rural hinterland are still bracing for more infections.

As the travel rush for the Lunar New Year – the most important festival for family reunion in China – begins this week, hundreds of millions of people are expected to return to their hometowns from big cities, bringing the virus to the vulnerable countryside where vaccination rates are lower and medical resources even scarcer.

The outlook is grim. Some studies estimate the death toll could be in excess of a million, if China fails to roll out booster shots and antiviral drugs fast enough.

The government has launched a booster campaign for the elderly, but many remain reluctant to take it due to concerns about side effects. Fighting vaccine hesitancy will require significant time and effort, when the country’s medical workers are already stretched thin.

Beijing’s Covid restrictions have put China out of sync with the rest of the world. Three years of lockdowns and border curbs have disrupted supply chains, damaged international businesses, and hurt flows of trade and investment between China and other countries.

As China joins the rest of the world in living with Covid, the implications for the global economy are potentially huge.

Any uptick in China’s growth will provide a vital boost to economies that rely on Chinese demand. There will be more international travel and production. But rising demand will also drive up prices of energy and raw materials, putting upward pressure on global inflation.

“In the short run, I believe China’s economy is likely to experience chaos rather than progress for a simple reason: China is poorly prepared to deal with Covid,” said Bo Zhuang, senior sovereign analyst at Loomis, Sayles & Company, an investment firm based in Boston.

Analysts from Capital Economics expect China’s economy to contract by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2023, before rebounding in the second quarter.

Other experts also expect the economy to recover after March. In a recent research report, HSBC economists projected a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter, but 5% growth for 2023.

Despite all this uncertainty, Chinese citizens are celebrating the partial reopening of the border after the end of quarantine for international arrivals and the resumption of outbound travel.

Though some residents voiced concern online about the rapid loosening of restrictions during the outbreak, many more are eagerly planning trips abroad – travel websites recorded massive spikes in traffic within minutes of the announcement on December 26.

Several Chinese nationals overseas told CNN they had been unable or unwilling to return home for the last few years while the lengthy quarantine was still in place. That stretch meant major life moments missed and spent apart: graduations, weddings, childbirths, deaths.

Some countries have offered a warm welcome back, with foreign embassies and tourism departments posting invitations to Chinese travelers on Chinese social media sites. But others are more cautious, with many countries imposing new testing requirements for travelers coming from China and its territories.

Officials from these countries have pointed to the risk of new variants emerging from China’s outbreak – though numerous health experts have criticized the targeted travel restrictions as scientifically ineffective and alarmist, with the risk of inciting further racism and xenophobia.

As China emerges from its self-imposed isolation, all eyes are on whether it will be able to repair its reputation and relations that soured during the pandemic.

China’s ties with the West and many of its neighbors plummeted significantly over the origins of the coronavirus, trade, territorial claims, Beijing’s human rights record and its close partnership with Russia despite the devastating war in Ukraine.

The lack of top-level face-to-face diplomacy certainly didn’t help, neither did the freeze on in-person exchanges among policy advisers, business groups and the wider public.

At the G20 and APEC summits, Xi signaled his willingness to repair relations with the United States and its allies in a flurry of bilateral meetings.

Communication lines are back open and more high-level exchanges are in the pipeline – with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, French President Emmanuel Macron, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Italy’s newly elected Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni all expected to visit Beijing this year.

But Xi also made clear his ambition to push back at American influence in the region, and there is no illusion that the world’s two superpowers will be able to work out their fundamental differences and cast aside their intensifying rivalry.

In the new year, tensions may again flare over Taiwan, technological containment, as well as China’s support for Russia – which Xi underlined during a virtual meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 30.

Both leaders expressed a message of unity, with Xi saying the two countries should “strengthen strategic coordination” and “inject more stability into the world,” according to Chinese state media Xinhua.

China is “ready to work” with Russia to “stand against hegemonism and power politics,” and to oppose unilateralism, protectionism and “bullying,” said Xi. Putin, meanwhile, invited Xi to visit Moscow in the spring of 2023.

Beijing has long refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or even refer to it as such. It has instead decried Western sanctions and amplified Kremlin talking points blaming the US and NATO for the conflict.

As Russia suffered humiliating military setbacks in Ukraine in recent months, Chinese state media appeared to have somewhat dialed back its pro-Russia rhetoric, while Xi has agreed to oppose the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine in meetings with Western leaders.

But few experts believe China will distance itself from Russia, with several telling CNN the two countries’ mutual reliance and geopolitical alignment remains strong – including their shared vision for a “new world order.”

“(The war) has been a nuisance for China this past year and has affected China’s interest in Europe,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center. “But the damage is not significant enough that China will abandon Russia.”

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Business

Business partners turn on Sam Bankman-Fried

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New York
CNN
 — 

The stunning collapse of one of crypto’s most prominent firms has quickly morphed into a legal battle pitting former executives and ex-romantic partners against one another.

Last week, as FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was being extradited to the United States from the Bahamas, two of his former business partners pleaded guilty to multiple charges of fraud and conspiracy.

Caroline Ellison, the 28-year-old former CEO of the crypto hedge fund Alameda, apologized before a federal judge in New York, saying that she and her former associates knowingly stole billions of dollars from customers of Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange and sought to cover it up, according to court transcripts.

“I am truly sorry for what I did,” Ellison told the court. “I knew that it was wrong.”

Ellison told the court that Alameda had a virtually unlimited borrowing facility in FTX, and that she knew the exchange would need to use customer funds to finance loans to the hedge fund. She also agreed to keep the two firms’ unusually close relationship hidden from investors and customers.

From July through October, she told the court, Ellison agreed with Bankman-Fried and others to provide “materially misleading financial statements to Alameda’s lenders,” and prepared balance sheets that concealed the extent of Alameda’s borrowing.

Ellison has been charged with seven criminal counts, including conspiracy to commit wire fraud and money laundering. She and Bankman-Fried were close business associates who briefly dated.

Another associate, Gary Wang, FTX’s former chief technology officer, pleaded guilty to four counts of similar charges.

Wang told the court that part of his role at FTX included making changes to the exchange’s code that would grant Alameda “special privileges” on FTX.

“I knew what I was doing was wrong,” he said.

Both Ellison and Wang are cooperating with federal prosecutors, making them potentially damning witnesses against Bankman-Fried, who has repeatedly denied intentionally defrauding customers and investors.

Bankman-Fried, 30, appeared Thursday in a US courtroom in New York, where a federal judge released him on a $250 million bond. He is required to surrender his passport and remain under house arrest at his parents’ home in Palo Alto, California.

Although $250 million is an extraordinary sum, Bankman-Fried won’t have to pay it unless he violates the terms of his bail agreement or fails to show up to court. The atypical bail plan was agreed to as part of his commitment to waive his extradition fight.

Following his court appearance, Bankman-Fried was spotted in a business class lounge at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. Crypto reporter Tiffany Fong also tweeted a photo showing Bankman-Fried on an American Airlines flight.

Bankman-Fried’s legal team confirmed to CNN Business that he had arrived in Palo Alto and was home with his parents. His lawyer declined to comment on the guilty pleas by Ellison and Wang.

The federal judge Thursday said Bankman-Fried would be arraigned on eight criminal counts including fraud and conspiracy at an unspecified future date.

Prosecutors allege that Bankman-Fried orchestrated “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history,” stealing billions of dollars from FTX customers to cover losses at Alameda and to enrich himself. If convicted, he could face life in prison.

Bankman-Fried, prior to his arrest in the Bahamas earlier this month, had sought to portray himself as a hapless entrepreneur who got out over his skis. He repeatedly apologized to customers and to FTX staff, saying he “f—ed up,” while denying that he knowingly defrauded anyone.

— CNN’s Lauren del Valle and Kara Scannell contributed reporting.



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Business

PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, shows prices cooling

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Minneapolis
CNN
 — 

The trend is clear: Inflation is cooling off in America.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measurement of inflation showed price increases continued to moderate in November, providing yet another welcome indication that the period of painfully high prices has peaked.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE, rose 5.5% in November from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That’s lower than in October, when prices rose 6.1% annually.

In November alone, prices rose just 0.1% from October.

Core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, was up 4.7% annually and 0.2% on a monthly basis, matching expectations of economists polled by Refinitiv.

The annual increases for both PCE inflation indexes hit their lowest levels since October 2021 and follows continued declines in other inflation gauges, such as the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index.

PCE, specifically the core measurement, is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, since it provides a more complete picture of costs for consumers.

Friday’s report also showed that spending continued to rise in November, but at a much slower pace than in previous months. Spending was up 0.1% in November as compared to 0.8% the month before. Personal income increased by 0.4% in November, down from 0.7% in October.

The November PCE report, the last major inflation gauge released in 2022, provided a snapshot of an economy in transition. Tasked with reining in the highest inflation since the early 1980s, the Fed has undertaken a series of blockbuster interest rate hikes to squelch demand.

In its seven meetings starting in March, the central bank’s policymaking arm raised its benchmark interest rate by a cumulative 4.25 percentage points. The sharp hike in rates has started to filter through the economy, its effects showing up first in areas such as real estate, where mortgage rates were 6.27% this week, more than double the rate seen last year at this time, according to Freddie Mac data.

“The economy is moving in the right direction from the Federal Reserve’s perspective at the end of 2022, but not quickly enough,” Gus Faucher, chief economist for PNC Financial Services, said in a statement. “Higher interest rates are weighing on consumer spending, particularly for durable goods, and inflation is slowing.”

Inflation has moderated in recent months, especially on items like goods as supply chain bottlenecks have eased and consumers focused more spending in areas like leisure and hospitality.

However, inflation within the services sector has been a little “sticky,” and not abating as quickly. Friday’s PCE report showed the services index posted a monthly increase of 0.4% – unchanged from October’s rate – and a year-over-year increase of more than 11%, Faucher noted.

While much of the services inflation is due to housing costs, which are rapidly reversing, the Fed is concerned that strong wage growth could fuel persistent increases in services prices and overall inflation, he added.

“The Federal Open Market Committee will continue to increase the fed funds rate in early 2023 until it becomes more apparent that the job market is cooling, and wage growth and services inflation are slowing to more sustainable paces,” he added.

The Fed’s latest economic projections that were released last week showed that board members were expecting inflation to remain slightly higher for longer than previously forecast. Fed board members now expect PCE inflation to end 2023 at 3.1% and core PCE to finish next year at 3.5%, above the central bank’s target rate of 2%.

A separate Commerce Department report released Friday showed that new orders for manufactured goods tumbled 2.1% in November, the biggest monthly drop since the onset of the pandemic.

Transportation equipment, specifically new orders for non-defense aircraft and parts, drove the decline, according to the report. Excluding transportation, new orders increase 0.2%.

Shipments increased 0.2% in November, which followed a 0.4% increase in October.

“Core durable goods orders slowed but did not contract, reflecting growing unease about the economy,” Diane Swonk, chief economist for KPMG, tweeted Friday after the report’s release. “Manufacturing activity has begun to contract and prelim reading for December suggests it will contract further at year end. A cold winter expected for the manufacturing sector.

Inflation’s slow march downward has been welcome news to consumers as well, helping to perk up their economic sentiments during December, according to new data released Friday by the University of Michigan.

The final December reading for the index of consumer sentiment came in at 59.7 in December, up slightly from a preliminary measurement of 59.1 and November’s final reading of 56.8, according to data from the university’s Surveys of Consumers.

“Consumers clearly welcomed the recent easing of inflation,” Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers, said in a statement. “While sentiment appears to have turned a corner from its all-time low from June, consumers have reserved judgment about whether the trends will continue.”

She added: “Their outlook for the economy may have improved, but it remains relatively weak. The sustainability of robust consumer spending is contingent on continued strength in incomes and labor markets in the quarters ahead.”

The report showed the biggest improvement in sentiment about business conditions, while inflation expectations also improved by falling to 4.4% in December, the lowest reading in 18 months, according to the university. This is a key data point for the Federal Reserve. If consumers believe prices will remain high, that could factor into increased wage demands, which could cause businesses to raise prices.

Earlier this week, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index – another measure of how consumers are feeling about the economy – landed at its highest measurement since April 2022.



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World

Exclusive: Biden task force investigating how US tech ends up in Iranian attack drones used against Ukraine

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Washington
CNN
 — 

The Biden administration has launched an expansive task force to investigate how US and western components, including American-made microelectronics, are ending up in Iranian-made drones Russia is launching by the hundreds into Ukraine, multiple officials familiar with the effort tell CNN. 

The US has imposed tough export control restrictions and sanctions to prevent Iran from obtaining high-end materials, but evidence has emerged that suggests Iran is finding an abundance of commercially-available technology. 

Last month, the UK-based investigative organization  Conflict Armament Research examined  several drones that had been downed in Ukraine and found that 82% of their components were manufactured by companies based in the US. 

Among the components found in some of the drones are processors built by the Dallas-based technology company Texas Instruments, according to an investigation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a source familiar with the US inquiry, as well as an engine made by an Austrian firm owned by Canada’s Bombardier Recreational Products. Both companies have condemned any use of their technology for illicit purposes. 

Their apparently unintentional ensnarement in Iran’s drone manufacturing industry underscores how inexpensive products intended for civilian use can be easily retrofitted for military purposes, and often fall just outside the bounds of sanctions and export control regimes.  

Texas Instruments said in a statement to CNN that “TI is not selling any products into Russia, Belarus or Iran. TI complies with applicable laws and regulations in the countries where we operate, and partners with law enforcement organizations as necessary and appropriate. Additionally, we do not support or condone the use of our products in applications they weren’t designed for. ”

Bombardier Recreational Products  said in a statement that it was launching an investigation into how the engines ended up in the drones.

The investigation has intensified in recent weeks amid intelligence obtained by the US that the Kremlin is preparing to open its own factory for drone production inside Russia as part of a deal with Iran, the officials said. 

Iran has already begun transferring blueprints and components for the drones to Russia to help with production there, CNN has reported, in a dramatic expansion of the countries’ military partnership. 

Agencies across Washington are involved in the task force, including the departments of Defense, State, Justice, Commerce and Treasury, with one official describing the inquiry as an “all hands on deck” initiative. The effort is being overseen by the White House National Security Council as part of an even bigger, “holistic approach” to dealing with Iran, a senior administration official said, from its crackdown on protesters and its nuclear program to its deepening role in the war in Ukraine.

But the drone issue is particularly urgent given the sheer volume of US-made components, many of them manufactured in the last couple years, that have been found in the Iranian drones Russia has been deploying across Ukraine against civilians and critical infrastructure. 

Conflict Armament Research found that the Iranian drones they examined in Ukraine in November had “higher-end technological capabilities,” including tactical-grade sensors and semiconductors sourced outside of Iran, demonstrating that Tehran “has been able to circumvent current sanction regimes and has added more capabilities and resiliency to its weapons.”

National Security Council official John Kirby told reporters earlier this month that the US would be sanctioning three Russian companies involved in acquiring and using the Iranian drones, and is “assessing further steps we can take in terms of export controls to restrict Iran’s access to sensitive technologies.” 

Much of that work has fallen to the task force, officials said, and among its first tasks has been to notify all of the American companies whose components have been found in the drones. Congressional staffers briefed on the effort told CNN that they hope the task force provides lawmakers with a list of US companies whose equipment is being found in the drones in an effort to force greater accountability by urging the companies to monitor their supply chains more closely.

The task force is also having to coordinate with foreign allies, since the components being used in the drones are not limited to those produced by American companies.  Conflict Armament Research also found that “more than 70 manufacturers based in 13 different countries and territories” produced the components in the Iranian drones they examined.

In October, CNN obtained access to a drone that was downed in the Black Sea near Odesa and captured by Ukrainian forces. It was found to contain Japanese batteries, an Austrian engine and American processors. 

Iran may also be acquiring near-exact replicas of western components from China, according to a study published last month by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. “China plays a larger role than previously assessed in enabling Iran to manufacture and supply drones to Russian forces,” the report found. “It appears that Chinese companies are supplying Iran with copies of Western commodities to produce UAV combat drones.”

The White House believes it is successfully driving home the scale of the issue with allies. The senior administration official told CNN that there was “growing broad and deep international consensus on Iran, from the EU to Canada to Australia and New Zealand, which is being led by US diplomacy.”

There is no evidence that any of the western companies are knowingly exporting their technology to be used in the drones, and that is partly why the task force’s job has been so difficult, officials said. 

The task force has its work cut out for it in tracing supply chains for the microelectronics industry, which relies heavily on third party distributors and resellers. The microchips and other small devices ending up in so many of the Iranian and Russian drones are not only inexpensive and widely available, they are also easily hidden. 

Iran also uses front companies to buy equipment from the US and EU that may have a dual use, like the Austrian engines, that Tehran can then use to build drones, according to the Treasury Department, which sanctioned several of those companies in September. 

 That makes supply chain monitoring a challenge, though experts say US and European companies could be doing a lot more to track where their products are going. 

“American companies should be doing a lot more to track their supply chains,” said Dmitri Alperovitch, the former chief technology officer at the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. 

Keeping better track of resellers is a first step, he said, but the task is admittedly difficult because so many of these companies’ products are so commoditized and available off-the-shelf and online for civil purposes. Ultimately, neutering some Iranian front companies with sanctions and cutting off their supply from some western companies will be akin to “a game of whack a mole,” Alperovitch said, noting that they “can easily find another supplier.”

He added that the real “weak underbelly” of US policy when it comes to export controls is enforcement—and prosecuting the specific individuals involved in the illicit transactions. 

“We have to beef up the resources for enforcement of our sanctions to achieve the desired effect,” Alperovitch said.

“You can put companies on the [sanctioned] entities list,” he added, “but if you don’t actually go after the people involved, it doesn’t mean a whole lot.” 

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Business

Sam Bankman-Fried seeks bail deal while being extradited to US

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New York
CNN
 — 

Lawyers for Sam Bankman-Fried are negotiating with federal prosecutors in New York on a bail arrangement that would enable him to avoid detention, people familiar with the matter told CNN.

FTX crypto exchange founder Bankman-Fried, who oversaw his now-bankrupt crypto empire from a luxury compound in the Bahamas, is expected to return as early as Wednesday to the United States.

In a hearing Wednesday morning, his lawyer in the Bahamas told the court that Bankman-Fried had agreed to extradition to the US, where federal prosecutors have charged him with orchestrating “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history.”

Once the 30-year-old is stateside, Bankman-Fried will appear before a judge in Manhattan for a bail hearing. The timing of that hearing will depend on when he arrives in New York and is processed.

In the week and a half since his arrest in the Bahamas, Bankman-Fried has been held in a prison that US officials have described overcrowded, dirty and lacking medical care. Its crowded cells often lack mattresses and are “infested with rats, maggots, and insects.”

Prosecutors and attorneys for Bankman-Fried are discussing an arrangement for his release, with conditions, that would enable the failed crypto entrepreneur to avoid spending time at the Metropolitan Detention Center. The MDC is a pre-trial holding facility that former inmates and rights advocates have described as inhumane, citing frequent lockdowns, overcrowding and power outages that have left it without heat in the middle of winter.

Federal prosecutors last week charged Bankman-Fried with defrauding investors and customers of FTX, which he founded in 2019. If convicted on all eight charges of fraud and conspiracy, he could face life in prison.

FTX and its sister trading house, Alameda, both filed for bankruptcy last month after investors rushed to pull their deposits from the exchange, sparking a liquidity crisis.

In the weeks since their bankruptcy, FTX’s new CEO has stated publicly that customer funds deposited on the FTX site were commingled with funds at Alameda, which made a number of speculative, high-risk bets. The CEO, John Ray III, described the situation at the two companies as “old-fashioned embezzlement” at the hands of a small group of “grossly inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals.”

—CNN’s Patrick Oppmann contributed reporting.

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Sam Bankman-Fried to appear in court Monday to drop extradition fight

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New York
CNN
 — 

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is expected to appear in a Bahamas court on Monday to reverse his decision to contest extradition to the US, a person familiar with the matter told CNN.

Bankman-Fried is expected to agree to extradition to the US, the person said. Reuters first reported thank Bankman-Fried would withdraw his extradition fight Monday.

It remains unclear what time Bankman-Fried will appear in court. If he waives his extradition, he would likely return to the United States quickly. Once in the states, he will appear before a US judge for an arraignment and bail hearing.

CNN has reached out to Bankman-Fried’s lawyers, and the Bahamas Attorney General.

Last Tuesday, federal prosecutors from the Southern District of New York charged Bankman-Fried with eight counts of fraud and conspiracy. Bankman-Fried could face up to 115 years in prison if convicted on all eight counts against him, though he likely wouldn’t get the maximum sentence.

On top of that, US market regulators filed civil lawsuits accusing Bankman-Fried of defrauding investors and customers, saying he “built a house of cards on a foundation of deception while telling investors that it was one of the safest buildings in crypto.”

Bankman-Fried remains in the Bahamas, where FTX was based, and was arrested last Monday night. He was arraigned Tuesday, and a Bahamian judge denied his request for bail, saying that he posed a flight risk. His extradition to the United States could take weeks.

Prosecutors allege Bankman-Fried conspired with others on numerous schemes, including misusing customer deposits held in FTX that were used to cover the expenses of Alameda, Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund..

Bankman-Fried also allegedly defrauded lenders to Alameda by providing them misleading information about the hedge fund’s financial condition.

The 14-page indictment also alleges that Bankman-Fried conspired with others to violate federal election laws by making political donations to candidates and fundraising committees between 2020 and November 2022, in excess of federal legal limits and in the names of other people.

– Allison Morrow contributed to this report.

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Business

‘Out of control’: No one knows how much to tip

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New York
CNN
 — 

A new checkout trend is sweeping across America, making for an increasingly awkward experience: digital tip jars.

You order a coffee, an ice cream, a salad or a slice of pizza and pay with your credit card or phone. Then, an employee standing behind the counter spins around a touch screen and slides it in front of you. The screen has a few suggested tip amounts – usually 10%, 15% or 20%. There’s also often an option to leave a custom tip or no tip at all.

The worker is directly across from you. Other customers are standing behind, waiting impatiently and looking over your shoulder to see how much you tip. And you must make a decision in seconds. Oh lord, the stress.

Customers and workers today are confronted with a radically different tipping culture compared to just a few years ago — without any clear norms. Although consumers are accustomed to tipping waiters, bartenders and other service workers, tipping a barista or cashier may be a new phenomenon for many shoppers. It’s being driven in large part by changes in technology that have enabled business owners to more easily shift the costs of compensating workers directly to customers.

“I don’t know how much you’re supposed to tip and I study this,” said Michael Lynn, a professor of consumer behavior and marketing at Cornell University and one of the leading researchers on US tipping habits.

Adding to the changing dynamics, customers were encouraged to tip generously during the pandemic to help keep restaurants and stores afloat, raising expectations. Total tips for full-service restaurants were up 25% during the latest quarter compared to a year ago, while tips at quick-service restaurants were up 17%, according to data from Square.

The shift to digital payments also accelerated during the pandemic, leading stores to replace old-fashioned cash tip jars with tablet touch screens. But these screens and the procedures for digital tipping have proven more intrusive than a low-pressure cash tip jar with a few bucks in it.

Customers are overwhelmed by the number of places where they now have the option to tip and feel pressure about whether to add a gratuity and for how much. Some people deliberately walk away from the screen without doing anything to avoid making a decision, say etiquette experts who study tipping culture and consumer behavior.

Tipping can be an emotionally charged decision. Attitudes towards tipping in these new settings vary widely.

Some customers tip no matter what. Others feel guilty if they don’t tip or embarrassed if their tip is stingy. And others eschew tipping for a $5 iced coffee, saying the price is already high enough.

“The American public feels like tipping is out of control because they’re experiencing it in places they’re not used to,” said Lizzie Post, co-president of the Emily Post Institute and its namesake’s great-great-granddaughter. “Moments where tipping isn’t expected makes people less generous and uncomfortable.”

Starbucks has rolled out tipping this year as an option for customers paying with credit and debit cards. Some Starbucks baristas told CNN that the tips are adding extra money to their paychecks, but customers shouldn’t feel obligated to tip every time.

One barista in Washington State said that he understands if a customer doesn’t tip for a drip coffee order. But if he makes a customized drink after spending time talking to the customer about exactly how it should be made, “it does make me a little bit disappointed if I don’t receive a tip.”

“If someone can afford Starbucks every day, they can afford to tip on at least a few of those trips,” added the employee, who spoke under the condition of anonymity.

The option to tip is seemingly everywhere today, but the practice has a troubled history in the United States.

Tipping spread after the Civil War as an exploitative measure to keep down wages of newly-freed slaves in service occupations. Pullman was the most notable for its tipping policies. The railroad company hired thousands of Black porters, but paid them low wages and forced them to rely on tips to make a living.

Critics of tipping argued that it created an imbalance between customers and workers, and several states passed laws in the early 1900s to ban the practice.

In “The Itching Palm,” a 1916 diatribe on tipping in America, writer William Scott said that tipping was “un-American” and argued that “the relation of a man giving a tip and a man accepting it is as undemocratic as the relation of master and slave.”

But tipping service workers was essentially built into law by the 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act, which created the federal minimum wage that excluded restaurant and hospitality workers. This allowed the tipping system to proliferate in these industries.

In 1966, Congress created a “subminimum” wage for tipped workers. The federal minimum wage for tipped employees has stood at $2.13 per hour — lower than the $7.25 federal minimum — since 1991, although many states require higher base wages for tipped employees. If a server’s tips don’t add up to the federal minimum, the law says that the employer must make up the difference. But this doesn’t always happen. Wage theft and other wage violations are common in the service industry.

The Department of Labor considers any employee working in a job that “customarily and regularly” receives more than $30 a month in tips as eligible to be classified a tipped worker. Experts estimate there are more than five million tipped workers in the United States.

Just how much to tip is entirely subjective and varies across industries, and the link between the quality of service and the tip amount is surprisingly weak, Lynn from Cornell said.

He theorized that a 15% to 20% tip at restaurants became standard because of a cycle of competition among customers. Many people tip to gain social approval or with the expectation of better service. As tip levels increase, other customers start tipping more to avoid any losses in status or risk poorer service.

The gig economy has also changed tipping norms. An MIT study released in 2019 found that customers are less likely to tip when workers have autonomy over whether and when to work. Nearly 60% of Uber customers never tip, while only about 1% always tip, a 2019 University of Chicago study found.

What makes it confusing, Lynn said, is that “there’s no central authority that establishes tipping norms. They come from the bottom up. Ultimately, it’s what people do that helps establish what other people should do.”

You should almost always tip workers earning the subminimum wage such as restaurant servers and bartenders, say advocates and tipping experts.

When given the option to tip in places where workers make an hourly wage, such as Starbucks baristas, customers should use their discretion and remove any guilt from their decision, etiquette experts say. Tips help these workers supplement their income and are always encouraged, but it’s okay to say no.

Etiquette experts recommend that customers approach the touch screen option the same way they would a tip jar. If they would leave change or a small cash tip in the jar, do so when prompted on the screen.

“A 10% tip for takeaway food is a really common amount. We also see change or a single dollar per order,” said Lizzie Post. If you aren’t sure what to do, ask the worker if the store has a suggested tip amount.

Saru Jayaraman, president of One Fair Wage, which advocates to end subminimum wage policies, encourages customers to tip. But tips should never count against service workers’ wages, and customers must demand that businesses pay workers a full wage, she said.

“We’ve got to tip, but it’s got to be combined with telling employers that tips have to be on top, not instead of, a full minimum wage,” she said.

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