Tag Archives: economics

Some Chinese Stocks Are Starting to Look Like Bargains. Where to Look.

Investing in China is even trickier than usual these days, leading some to wonder if it’s worth the trouble. And it’s not likely to get easier in the near term, though volatility over the next couple of months could create bargains for long-term investors.

Since scuttling the anticipated public offering of Ant Group last fall, Chinese regulators have been targeting the country’s biggest and most widely held internet companies. On July 2, Beijing struck again, launching a cybersecurity review of

DiDi Global

(ticker: DIDI) and ordering its app to be pulled from mobile stores, as it tightened controls over data security and rules for companies listed overseas.

The move, just days after DiDi had raised $4.4 billion in the year’s biggest IPO, led the stock to lose a fifth of its value on July 6, and rattled other Chinese internet shares. The

KraneShares CSI China Internet

exchange-traded fund (KWEB) has fallen 15% since June 30, as investors braced for more scrutiny of tech companies’ data practices and other regulatory moves.

“We now know this is a regulatory minefield, and those who expose themselves to the sector are taking on a lot of volatility,” says Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal Research’s head of research. “If your horizon is long term, this is going to be one of the growth stories of the next decade and you have to ride it out. But if you are more short term, you may say it’s too complicated and come back in a year when things have calmed down.”

The wave of regulatory measures has created the type of uncertainty that draws bargain hunters. Technology giants like

Alibaba Group Holding

(BABA), whose shares are down 11% this year, are popping up on value managers’ radars. But caution is warranted, especially for investors in U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies. Regulatory pressures could continue. “It’s probably just the start of the enforcement actions,” says Kenneth Zhou, a partner at law firm WilmerHale in Beijing.

Fund managers have described China’s regulatory drive as a move to gain better control and set up guardrails for fast-growing digital industries and internet titans. It’s also a way for Beijing to deal with escalating U.S.-China tensions, in part resulting from recent legislation in Washington that sets the stage for delisting Chinese companies if they don’t offer more auditing disclosures within three years.

One concern for China’s regulators: the valuable troves of data collected by Chinese tech companies listed in the U.S., creating a possible national security threat.

“Control of data is shaping up to be a major domestic and geopolitical issue, with direct equity market implications for firms operating on both sides of the Pacific,” Rory Green, head of China and Asia research at TS Lombard, said in a recent research note.

Beijing is trying to gain better control of Chinese companies, including those listed abroad. Many of the largest Chinese techs, like Alibaba,

Tencent Holdings

(700.Hong Kong) and

JD.com

(JD), are registered in the Cayman Islands and use a variable interest entity (VIE) structure, allowing them to get around Chinese restrictions on foreign ownership. Though largely ignored by investors, the complex structure is a gray area because, under it, foreigners don’t actually own a stake in a Chinese company. Instead, they must rely on China honoring contracts that tie them to the company.

For decades, China has largely turned a blind eye to the extralegal structure, but it’s paying more attention now. Bloomberg News reported this past week that Beijing is considering requiring companies that use this structure to seek its approval before listing elsewhere. Already-listed companies might have to seek approval for any secondary offerings.

Analysts and money managers say they don’t expect China to unravel the VIEs, which are used by the country’s largest and most successful companies and would take decades to undo. Many are also skeptical that the U.S. will follow through with its delisting threat.

But Beijing could use VIE scrutiny to exert increased control over companies and to push back against U.S. regulators’ calls for more disclosure. Indirectly, the scrutiny will likely bolster Beijing’s efforts to lure domestic companies back home—a drive that’s already led to secondary listings in Hong Kong for Alibaba,

Yum China Holdings

(YUMC), and JD.com.

Analysts also expect the heightened scrutiny to slow, if not halt, the number of Chinese companies coming public in the U.S. in the near term. It could also shrink the tally of U.S.-listed Chinese companies—more than 240 with over $2 trillion in combined market value—that appeal to do-it-yourself retail investors. Any of these unable to secure secondary listings in Hong Kong or China might go private, says Louis Lau, manager of the Brandes Emerging Markets Value fund.

U.S.-listed stocks could see volatility as a result. Increasingly, fund managers and institutional investors—Lau included—have been gravitating toward stocks listed in Hong Kong or mainland China whenever possible. For retail investors, the best way to access these foreign listings, as well as the more domestically oriented stocks that some fund managers favor, is through mutual or exchange-traded funds.

Money managers are better positioned to navigate some of the logistical complications created by U.S.-China tensions, such as the fallout from a recent executive order that banned U.S. investment in companies that Washington says has ties to China’s military complex. The S&P Dow Jones Indices and FTSE Russell decided this month to boot more than 20 Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed concerns affected by the order.

Other companies could also be banned and face similar fallout, with Reuters reporting on July 9 that the Biden administration is considering adding more Chinese entities to the banned list over alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

As investing in China gets more complicated, the case builds for investors to choose a fund manager who can navigate these complexities and invest locally. Failure to do so could be costly. The

iShares MSCI China A

ETF (CNYA) is up 3% over the past three months, while the

Invesco Golden Dragon China

ETF (PGJ), which focuses on U.S.-listed Chinese companies, is down 14% in the same span.

“Regulation is here to stay. Investors will just have to get used to this,” says Tiffany Hsiao, a veteran China investor who is a portfolio manager on Artisan’s China Post-Venture strategy. “This is capitalism with Chinese characteristics. China is obviously still a Communist state. It embraces capitalism to drive innovation and improve productivity, but it’s important for companies that do very well to give back to society—and Chinese regulators will remind you of that.”

As a result, she says, investors must move beyond the widely held internet titans to find stocks that could benefit from the regulatory scrutiny that the giants face. Veteran investors are stressing selectivity, searching in local markets for companies that are outside the crossfire.

“A company can have great fundamentals and interesting opportunities, but get blindsided by government action, which is increasingly active,” says David Semple, manager of the

VanEck Emerging Markets

fund (GBFAX). “You need a higher degree of conviction than normal to be involved.”

Semple is gravitating toward companies he’s familiar with, in sectors that could get hit by regulation, but with less impact than investors think.

One example: China is targeting after-school course providers, as it tries to lower child-care costs and encourage families to have more children. Nonetheless, Semple sees opportunity in

China Education Group Holdings

(839.Hong Kong), which could make acquisitions as Beijing forces public universities to divest affiliated private ones.

Of the large internet stocks, Semple favors Tencent, the top position in his fund, over Alibaba, another holding. Alibaba faces more competitive pressures, Semple says, and Tencent has an advantage with its Weixin messaging and videogaming franchises, which provide a high-quality, relatively low-cost flow of users for its other businesses.

Tencent also has quietly complied with the government’s requirements, with CEO Ma Huateng keeping a low profile, says Martin Lau, managing partner and a portfolio manager at FSSA Investment Managers, which oversees $37 billion. That’s a positive, given the backlash that met outspoken Alibaba and Ant co-founder Jack Ma.

Many Chinese internet companies’ fundamentals are sound. However, complying with the stringent rules on collecting and safeguarding user data probably will reduce their profits from that area, says Xiaohua Xu, a senior analyst at Eastspring Investments.

Alibaba and other internet companies, including JD.com, are cheap enough to attract value investors. But volatility is likely, with investors recalibrating growth expectations as Beijing rolls out new rules, and reviews past deals. In addition, widely held U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba, could become proxies for investors’ China angst.

Despite the yellow flags, investors have reason to keep China in the mix. “If you are buying growth, the world has twin engines: the U.S. and China,” says Jason Hsu, chairman and chief investment officer of asset manager Rayliant Global Advisors and co-founder of Research Affiliates. But, he adds, the U.S. is more expensive. “And whenever there is risk—and the world sees China as risky, with this deepening that bias—that means opportunity.”

Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com

Read original article here

Markets edgy ahead of US Fed decision; Germany’s 2021 growth forecasts cut – business live | Business

The German government’s top economic advisers have cut their growth forecasts for this year, warning that the latest wave of Covid-19 is hurting the economy.

In their latest outlook, the German Council of Economic Experts now expect GDP to only rise by 3.1% in 2021, down from 3.7% previously forecast.

It forecasts that Germany’s economy will shrink by around 2 % in the first quarter of this year, due to “the renewed rise in infection rates in autumn 2020 and the restrictions that currently remain in place”.

But it should then return to “a path of recovery over the coming months”, as the vaccination campaign is accelerated as planned, the pandemic is contained and, consequently, restrictions are gradually eased, the GCEE predict.

The GCEE has also cut its forecast for eurozone growth this year, to 4.1% from 4.9% previously, explaining that:


Economic activity in the euro area is being curbed by the heightened infection rates and the resultant restrictions.




German growth forecasts Photograph: German council of economic experts

The GCEE predicts that Germany’s economy will return to its pre-crisis level at the turn of the year 2021/2022, and grow by 4% in 2022.

But it also warns that vaccination progress is crucial in getting the economy back to normal, saying:


The greatest risk going forward is posed by further developments in the coronavirus pandemic. Progress on vaccinations will be one of the key factors determining how swiftly the economy can normalise.

Germany is one of several countries who suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine this week, while reports of thromboembolic events, such as blood clots, among a small number of people who received the jab are investigated.

GCEE member Achim Truger says Germany’s service sector could ‘bounce back’ once the pandemic is under control.


“Once we manage to get the level of infections under control and vaccinate larger sections of the population, the services sector that has been hit hard by the contact restrictions and closures – such as hospitality and stationary retail – is likely to bounce back. This should help to boost growth,”.

Fellow council member Volker Wieland flags up the risk of a third wave of Covid-19 forcing new restrictions and factory closures.


“The greatest risk to the German economy is posed by a potential third wave of infections, especially if it were to lead to restrictions or even plant closures in industry,”.

Read original article here

Petrol problems – Why the sacking of Petrobras’s boss spooked markets | Finance & economics

THE PRESIDENT of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, likes to call his University of Chicago-educated economy minister, Paulo Guedes, his “Posto Ipiranga”, a chain of full-service petrol stations. The nickname charmed markets during the election campaign in 2018, but Mr Guedes’s reform agenda has lost ground to populist moves aimed at winning re-election. When on February 19th Mr Bolsonaro fired Roberto Castello Branco, the boss of Petrobras, to appease lorry drivers upset about rising fuel prices, markets saw it as a sign of more meddling to come. The state-run oil firm’s share price dropped by 21%, wiping 100bn reais ($18bn) off its market value. Brazil’s benchmark stock index fell by 5% and the real lost 2.4% against the dollar(all have since recovered some of the losses).

Listen to this story

Your browser does not support the

Enjoy more audio and podcasts on iOS or Android.

What is unusual is not that Mr Bolsonaro intervened, but how he did so. With the oil price rising, the real falling and an election approaching in 2022, “no government could resist the populist temptation”, says a former executive of Petrobras, which has had 16 bosses in 30 years. But Mr Bolsonaro fired Mr Castello Branco, a friend of Mr Guedes, on Facebook, without consulting Petrobras’s board. To fans gathered outside the presidential palace, he mocked Mr Castello Branco for working from home during the pandemic and echoed a nationalist slogan: “Is petroleum ours, or does it belong to a small group of investors?”

Mr Bolsonaro has paid lip-service to the need for reforms to stabilise public debt, which is nearing 100% of GDP, but the former army captain and back-bench congressman never fully embraced a liberal agenda. Tax and public-sector reforms have stalled.Now, with inflation rising and the pandemic still crimping growth and employment, “the pendulum has swung in a more interventionist direction”, says Mário Mesquita of Itaú, a bank. The army general tapped to run Petrobras may stop short of price controls, in part because of new rules that protect minority shareholders, introduced after a corruption scandal and excessive intervention under Dilma Rousseff, a former president. But the firm’s plans to sell off unprofitable assets will suffer from greater uncertainty.

So will the Brazilian economy as a whole. Markets are getting less tolerant of Mr Bolsonaro’s heavy-handedness, says Ana Carla Abrão of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy. On February 25th Congress will start voting on a constitutional amendment that would allow it both to bypass a spending ceiling (in order to finance a new round of emergency payments for poor workers) and to enact measures to curb the growth of spending (such as by freezing public-sector salaries). Both are necessary, but politicians may approve the spending without the savings, delaying reforms to an elusive future date. That would increase the chances, already high, that the central bank raises interest rates next month for the first time since 2015.

Mr Guedes’s silence amid the turmoil suggests that he is holding on to hope that Congress, which recently elected allies of Mr Bolsonaro as heads of its two chambers, will pass the fiscal measures and slimmed-down versions of tax and public-sector reforms. He may reckon that ambitious reforms can follow Mr Bolsonaro’s re-election. That thinking seems wishful. Still, says Chris Garman of Eurasia Group, another consultancy, just as Mr Bolsonaro underestimated the cost of firing Mr Castello Branco, those who think Mr Guedes will be next underestimate the strength of their relationship. “Our Posto Ipiranga is irreplaceable,” Mr Bolsonaro said in November. The problem is that the lights are out, service has been suspended and Brazil’s economy is sputtering.

This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Petrol problems”

Read original article here

Petrol problems – Why the sacking of the head of Petrobras spooked markets | Finance & economics

THE PRESIDENT of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, likes to call his University of Chicago-educated economy minister, Paulo Guedes, his “Posto Ipiranga”, a chain of full-service petrol stations. The nickname charmed markets during the election campaign in 2018, but Mr Guedes’s reform agenda has lost ground to populist moves aimed at winning re-election. When on February 19th Mr Bolsonaro fired Roberto Castello Branco, the boss of Petrobras, to appease lorry drivers upset about rising fuel prices, markets saw it as a sign of more meddling to come. The state-run oil firm’s share price dropped by 21%, wiping 100bn reais ($18bn) off its market value. Brazil’s benchmark stock index fell by 5% and the real lost 2.4% against the dollar(all have since recovered some of the losses).

What is unusual is not that Mr Bolsonaro intervened, but how he did so. With the oil price rising, the real falling and an election approaching in 2022, “no government could resist the populist temptation”, says a former executive of Petrobras, which has had 16 bosses in 30 years. But Mr Bolsonaro fired Mr Castello Branco, a friend of Mr Guedes, on Facebook, without consulting Petrobras’s board. To fans gathered outside the presidential palace, he mocked Mr Castello Branco for working from home during the pandemic and echoed a nationalist slogan: “Is petroleum ours, or does it belong to a small group of investors?”

Mr Bolsonaro has paid lip-service to the need for reforms to stabilise public debt, which is nearing 100% of GDP, but the former army captain and back-bench congressman never fully embraced a liberal agenda. Tax and public-sector reforms have stalled.Now, with inflation rising and the pandemic still crimping growth and employment, “the pendulum has swung in a more interventionist direction”, says Mário Mesquita of Itaú, a bank. The army general tapped to run Petrobras may stop short of price controls, in part because of new rules that protect minority shareholders, introduced after a corruption scandal and excessive intervention under Dilma Rousseff, a former president. But the firm’s plans to sell off unprofitable assets will suffer from greater uncertainty.

So will the Brazilian economy as a whole. Markets are getting less tolerant of Mr Bolsonaro’s heavy-handedness, says Ana Carla Abrão of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy. On February 25th Congress will start voting on a constitutional amendment that would allow it both to bypass a spending ceiling (in order to finance a new round of emergency payments for poor workers) and to enact measures to curb the growth of spending (such as by freezing public-sector salaries). Both are necessary, but politicians may approve the spending without the savings, delaying reforms to an elusive future date. That would increase the chances, already high, that the central bank raises interest rates next month for the first time since 2015.

Mr Guedes’s silence amid the turmoil suggests that he is holding on to hope that Congress, which recently elected allies of Mr Bolsonaro as heads of its two chambers, will pass the fiscal measures and slimmed-down versions of tax and public-sector reforms. He may reckon that ambitious reforms can follow Mr Bolsonaro’s re-election. That thinking seems wishful. Still, says Chris Garman of Eurasia Group, another consultancy, just as Mr Bolsonaro underestimated the cost of firing Mr Castello Branco, those who think Mr Guedes will be next underestimate the strength of their relationship. “Our Posto Ipiranga is irreplaceable,” Mr Bolsonaro said in November. The problem is that the lights are out, service has been suspended and Brazil’s economy is sputtering.

This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Petrol problems”

Read original article here