Tag Archives: economic indicators

Shell posts profit of nearly $40 billion and announces $4 billion in buybacks


Hong Kong/London
CNN
 — 

Shell made a record profit of almost $40 billion in 2022, more than double what it raked in the previous year after oil and gas prices soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Europe’s largest oil company by revenue reported adjusted full-year earnings of $39.9 billion on Thursday — more than double the $19.3 billion it posted in 2021 — driven by a strong performance in its gas trading business. The company’s stock was up 1.7% in London.

The company reported $9.8 billion in profit in the fourth quarter. Just over 40% of Shell’s full-year earnings came from its integrated gas business, which includes liquified natural gas trading operations.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan said the results “demonstrate the strength of Shell’s differentiated portfolio, as well as our capacity to deliver vital energy to our customers in a volatile world.”

The earnings are the latest in a series of record-setting results by the world’s biggest energy companies, which have enjoyed bumper profits off the back of soaring oil and gas prices.

ExxonMobil this week posted record full-year earnings of $59.1 billion. Last month, Chevron

(CVX) reported a record full-year profit of $36.5 billion.

That has led to renewed calls for higher taxation. Governments in the European Union and the United Kingdom have already imposed windfall taxes on oil company profits, with the proceeds used to help households struggling with rising energy bills.

Shell said it expected to pay an additional $2.3 billion in tax related to the EU windfall tax and the UK energy profits levy. The company paid $13 billion in tax globally in 2022.

Shell

(RDSA) also announced another $4 billion share buyback program and confirmed it would lift its dividend per share by 15% for the fourth quarter.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

Read original article here

There’s beeen an increase in egg smuggling attempts across the border, says San Diego Customs



CNN
 — 

High prices are driving an increase in attempts to bring eggs into the US from Mexico, according to border officials.

Officers at the San Diego Customs and Border Protection Office have seen an increase in the number of attempts to move eggs across the US-Mexico border, according to a tweet from director of field operations Jennifer De La O.

“The San Diego Field Office has recently noticed an increase in the number of eggs intercepted at our ports of entry,” wrote De La O in the Tuesday tweet. “As a reminder, uncooked eggs are prohibited entry from Mexico into the U.S. Failure to declare agriculture items can result in penalties of up to $10,000.”

Bringing uncooked eggs from Mexico into the US is illegal because of the risk of bird flu and Newcastle disease, a contagious virus that affects birds, according to Customs and Border Protection.

In a statement emailed to CNN, Customs and Border Protection public affairs specialist Gerrelaine Alcordo attributed the rise in attempted egg smuggling to the spiking cost of eggs in the US. A massive outbreak of deadly avian flu among American chicken flocks has caused egg prices to skyrocket, climbing 11.1% from November to December and 59.9% annually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The increase has been reported at the Tijuana-San Diego crossing as well as “other southwest border locations,” Alcordo said.

For the most part, travelers bringing eggs have declared the eggs while crossing the border. “When that happens the person can abandon the product without consequence,” said Alcordo. “CBP agriculture specialists will collect and then then destroy the eggs (and other prohibited food/ag products) as is the routine course of action.”

In a few incidents, travelers did not declare their eggs and the products were discovered during inspection. In those cases, the eggs were seized and the travelers received a $300 penalties, Alcordo explained.

“Penalties can be higher for repeat offenders or commercial size imports,” he added.

Alcordo emphasized the importance of declaring all food and agricultural products when traveling.

“While many items may be permissible, it’s best to declare them to avoid possible fines and penalties if they are deemed prohibited,” he said. “If they are declared and deemed prohibited, they can be abandoned without consequence. If they are undeclared and then discovered during an exam the traveler will be subject to penalties.”



Read original article here

Abandoned shopping carts cost taxpayers thousands of dollars


New York
CNN
 — 

Santa Fe, New Mexico, paid a local contractor $47,000 to round up about 3,000 shopping carts around the city in 2021 and 2022.

Fayetteville, North Carolina, spent $78,468 collecting carts from May 2020 to October 2022.

Shopping carts keep wandering away from their stores, draining taxpayers’ coffers, causing blight and frustrating local officials and retailers.

Abandoned shopping carts are a scourge to neighborhoods, as wayward carts block intersections, sidewalks and bus stops. They occupy handicap spots in parking lots and wind up in creeks, ditches and parks. And they clog municipal drainage and waste systems and cause accidents.

There is no national data on shopping cart losses, but US retailers lose an estimated tens of millions of dollars every year replacing lost and damaged carts, say shopping cart experts. They pay vendors to rescue stray carts and fork over fines to municipalities for violating laws on shopping carts. They also miss out on sales if there aren’t enough carts for customers during peak shopping hours.

Last year, Walmart paid $23,000 in fines related to abandoned shopping carts to the small town of Dartmouth, Massachusetts, said Shawn McDonald, a member of the town’s Select Board.

Dartmouth public workers spent two years corralling more than 100 Walmart carts scattered around town and housed them in one of the city’s storage facilities. When Walmart applied for a new building permit, the company was told it had to pay the town thousands of dollars in daily storage fees, McDonald said.

“It’s a safety issue with these carts careening down the hill. I had one that was left in the road as I was driving,” he said. “I got to the point where I got pissed.”

More municipalities around the country are proposing laws cracking down on stray carts. They are imposing fines on retailers for abandoned carts and fees for retrieval services, as well as mandates for stores to lock up their carts or install systems to contain them. Some localities are also fining people who remove carts from stores.

The city council in Ogden, Utah, this month approved an ordinance fining people who take store carts or are in possession of one. The measure also authorizes the city to charge retailers a fee of $2 a day for storage and handling fees to retrieve lost carts.

“Abandoned shopping carts have become an increasing nuisance on public and private properties throughout the city,” the council said in its summary of the bill. City officials “are spending considerable amounts of time to pick up and return or dispose of the carts.”

Matthew Dodson, the president of Retail Marketing Services, which offers cart retrieval, maintenance and other services to leading retailers in several western states, said lost shopping carts is a growing problem.

During the busy 2022 holiday season, Retail Marketing Service leased extra carts to retailers, and got back 91% of its approximately 2,000 carts, down from 96% the prior year.

Dodson and others in the shopping cart industry say the rise in lost carts can be attributed to several factors, including unhoused people using them to hold their belongings or as shelter. Homelessness has been rising in many major cities due to skyrocketing housing prices, lack of affordable housing, and other factors. There have also been incidents of people stealing carts for scrap metal.

Some people, especially in cities, also use supermarket carts to bring their groceries home from the store. Other carts drift away from parking lots if they aren’t locked up during rough weather or at night.

To be sure, the problem of wayward shopping carts is not new. They began leaving stores soon after they were introduced in the late 1930s.

“A new menace is threatening the safety of motorists in stores,” the New York Times warned in a 1962 article. “It is the shopping cart.” Another New York Times article in 1957 called the trend “Cart-Napping.”

There’s even a book, “The Stray Shopping Carts of Eastern North America: A Guide to Field Identification,” dedicated to the phenomenon and a system of identification for stray shopping carts, much like guides for bird-watching.

Edward Tenner, a distinguished scholar in the Smithsonian’s Lemelson Center for the Study of Invention and Innovation, said the misuse of everyday items like shopping carts is an example of “deviant ingenuity.”

It’s similar to talapia fishermen in Malaysia stealing payphones in the 1990s and attaching the receivers to powerful batteries that emitted a sound to lure fish, he said.

Tenner hypothesized that people take shopping carts from stores because they are extremely versatile and aren’t available elsewhere: “There’s really no legitimate way for an individual to buy a supermarket-grade shopping cart.”

Supermarkets can have 200 to 300 shopping carts per store, while big-box chains carry up to 800. Depending on the size and model, carts cost up to $250, said Alex Poulos, a sales director at R.W. Rogers Company, which supplies carts and other equipment to stores.

Stores and cart makers over the years have increased the size of carts to encourage shoppers to buy more items.

Stores have introduced several cart safety and theft-prevention measures over the years, such as cart corrals and, more recently, wheels that automatically lock if a cart strays too far from the store. (Viral videos on TikTok show Target customers struggling to push around carts with wheeled locks.)

Gatekeeper Systems, which offers shopping cart control measures for the country’s largest retailers, said demand for its “SmartWheel” radio-frequency locks has increased during the pandemic.

At four stores, Wegmans is using Gatekeeper’s wheel locks.

“The cost of replacing carts as well as the cost of locating and returning missing carts to the store led to our decision to implement the technology,” a Wegmans spokesperson said.

Aldi, the German grocery chain that’s rapidly expanding in the United States, is one of the few US retailers to require customers to deposit a quarter to unlock a cart.

Coin-lock shopping cart systems are popular in Europe, and Poulos said more US companies are requesting coin-lock systems in response to the costs of runaway shopping carts.

Read original article here

The steep plunge in used car prices — what it means, and what’s ahead


New York
CNN
 — 

Tracking used car prices is enough to give anyone whiplash.

Since the start of the pandemic and the resulting disruptions to new car supply chains first sent prices soaring, used car prices posted their largest annual increase on record – up 45% in the 12 months ending in June 2021, according to the Consumer Price Index – before swinging to a 12-month drop of 8.8% in the most recent reading for December.

That was the biggest 12-month plunge in prices for used cars since June 2009, when General Motors and Chrysler were both in bankruptcy proceedings and the economy was hemorrhaging a half-million jobs a month.

“It was a completely wild ride,” said Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds.com Inc., an online resources for inventory and information on cars.

Data from Edmunds shows the average price of a used car purchase in December at $29,533, down nearly $1,600 from the record high of $31,095 reached in April 2022. Today’s average used car price is about the same as the average new car price as recently as 2010.

While the prices of late model used cars are down only 5% off their peak according according to Edmunds, the price of older used cars, those five years or older, have fallen 15% or more from their peaks early in 2022.

Experts say reasons for the decline include higher interest rates that make it more expensive to finance a car purchase, limiting demand. CarMax

(KMX), the nation’s largest pure used car dealer, has warned that the combination of high prices and high interest rates is creating an affordability problem for many buyers, hurting overall demand.

But the leading reason for the drop in used car prices is the increased supply of new cars.

It was the lack of new car inventory that drove up prices. Parts shortages, especially for computer chips, had choked off production of new cars in much of 2022, causing the lowest level of full-year US new car sales since 2011.

The low supply of new cars caused an even bigger jump in the average price of used cars, as buyers who would otherwise buy new vehicles turned to the used car market.

“At one point it seemed that everyone who was going to buy new ended up buying used,” said Greg Markus, executive vice president of AutoLenders, parent company of New Jersey’s largest used car dealership chain.

That included rental car companies, which before the pandemic normally bought about 10% or more new cars per year. With limited inventory of cars to sell, automakers essentially stopped making lower-priced fleet sales, and even rental car companies were forced to turn to the used car market.

All that has started to change in recent months. Automakers are reporting more supplies of the chips they need, and are producing and selling more cars, including a return of fleet sales. Overall, sales were up 9% in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago, and nearly 6% higher than in the third quarter, according to Cox Automotive. And with more buyers finding the new cars they want, that means lower demand for used cars.

Experts say part of the decline in used car prices is that the price increases were not sustainable and were partly driven by buyers at used car auctions overpaying for the limited supply of used vehicles.

“There was nowhere for these prices to go but down,” said Markus.

There could be more declines in used car prices in the months ahead, as new car inventories continue to build. One thing that could put a floor under the used car prices: late model used cars will likely be in short supply given the reduced new car production over the last three years.

“The supply issue is still grim,” said Markus. Because of that, “I don’t think we’re getting down to 2019 levels,” he added.

The run-up in used car prices was a major driver in the nation’s overall inflation rate, adding about a full percentage point to the overall increase in consumer prices from April of 2021 through May of 2022. Now it’s a factor helping to bring down the pace of inflation, shaving more than a third of a point off the overall rate in December.

This is obviously good news for those wanting or needing to buy a used car, though it can have a negative effect on car buyers by reducing the value of vehicle they hope to trade in. Edmunds shows the average trade-in value in December down nearly $3,000, or 11%, to $22,605, from the record high hit in June of 2022.

That drop in the value of trade-ins could also be a headwind on car prices by reducing what buyers are able to pay.

Read original article here

The owner of Uniqlo is boosting pay for Japan employees by up to 40% as inflation bites


Hong Kong
CNN
 — 

Fast Retailing, the Japanese giant that owns popular clothing brands Uniqlo and Theory, will start paying its employees much more this year.

The company announced Wednesday that it would boost salaries in Japan by up to 40%, acknowledging that “remuneration levels have remained low” in the country in recent years.

“This will include employees from headquarters and corporate departments responsible for the functions of the company’s global headquarters, as well as employees working in stores,” the firm said in a statement.

The move comes just days after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called on business leaders to accelerate raises for workers, warning that the economy risked falling into stagflation if wage rises continued to fall behind price increases.

Japan is grappling with the biggest drop in living standards in nearly a decade.

Last Friday, the world’s third largest economy reported its worst real-wage decline in more than eight years, exacerbating conditions for workers already contending with higher costs of living.

In the capital of Tokyo, core inflation, which measures items excluding fresh food, climbed 4% in December compared to a year ago, above the 3.8% expected by economists, according to official figures released Tuesday.

That was “the highest seen in 40 years,” analysts at Nomura said in a Wednesday report.

“Inflation in Japan is a factor in our considerations,” a Fast Retailing spokesperson told CNN on Wednesday.

But the company is generally more focused on aligning “each employee’s remuneration with global standards, to be able to increase our competitiveness,” the representative added.

The company will officially adjust its overall compensation system in March. Starting salaries for entry-level university graduates will jump by roughly 18%, while new store managers could see a hike of approximately 36%, according to the company.

The retailer has also been hiking pay for staff in some of its overseas markets, leading to pay bumps ranging from 5% to 25%, the spokesperson said.

Read original article here

What to expect from the jobs report


Minneapolis
CNN
 — 

The latest monthly jobs report, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that the US economy added 200,000 jobs in December, with the unemployment rate holding steady for the third-straight month at 3.7%.

The Labor Department’s final monthly employment tally for 2022 likely brings with it some familiar story lines.

— Job growth is expected to remain robust, although slower than the breakneck pace of historically high job gains during the early stages of economic recovery from the pandemic.

— Workers are still not returning to hard-hit sectors such as leisure and hospitality, public service and child care.

— The strong labor market, while it keeps the economy churning, is a little too consistently vigorous for the Federal Reserve’s needs to reduce inflation by tempering demand.

— The tight labor market needs more workers, and wage growth still hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels, which would help quell fears of a wage-price spiral, when higher wages cause price increases that in turn cause higher wages.

Lather, rinse and repeat.

“The preponderance of evidence suggests that the labor market is still nowhere near back to normal,” said Julia Pollak, senior economist with ZipRecruiter online employment marketplace.

The US labor market remains atypically tight — something that was reinforced Wednesday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for November. It showed there were still north of 10.5 million job openings, or about 1.7 available positions for every unemployed person looking for work.

The survey also showed that what has been deemed the “Great Resignation” is still chugging along, Pollak said. During the Covid-19 pandemic, a record number of workers voluntarily quit their jobs in search of greener pastures — be it better working conditions, higher pay, or increased flexibility.

The number of people per month quitting their jobs has now landed above 4 million for 18 months straight. In the two decades leading up to the pandemic, the monthly average was 2.6 million.

“Companies are still battling huge retention difficulties,” Pollak said.

The latest JOLTS didn’t show that the market was loosening up as maybe some had hoped or expected. But it did provide a window into some of the divergence that’s occurring at a time when some businesses are hiring more to meet consumer demand while others scale down their operations because of bloat, the rippling effects of high interest rates, or preparation for less fruitful economic times ahead.

Industries such as accommodation and food services reported about 50% fewer layoffs in November than what was seen on average between 2000 and February 2020, Pollak said.

“I think it’s mostly just pre-pandemic recovery,” she said. “Leisure and hospitality is still short hundreds of thousands of workers and just still ramping up, because spending recovered more quickly than staffing.”

As of October 2022, the leisure and hospitality sector was still below pre-pandemic employment levels by more than 1 million jobs, or 6.3%, according to a CNN Business analysis of BLS employment data.

Technology companies have accounted for the lion’s share of job cuts announced in recent months. During the pandemic, when people were relegated to working and spending their money from home, tech and e-commerce firms bulked up to meet the demand.

During 2022, technology was the leading job-cutting industry, with 97,171 reductions announced, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas’ latest job cut announcement report released Thursday.

Overall, job cuts trended upward in 2022 at 363,824 as compared to 321,970 the year before. There were 43,651 job cuts announced in December, a 129% jump from December 2021, according to the report.

But the job cuts announced in 2022 were the second-lowest on record, going back to 1993, Challenger, Gray & Christmas data showed. In 2019, there were 592,556 job cuts announced.

“The overall economy is still creating jobs, though employers appear to be actively planning for a downturn,” Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in the report.

If the monthly job gains come in as expected on Friday, that would mean the economy added more than 4.5 million jobs in 2022.

That would be the second-highest annual total on record, behind the massive 6.7 million gains in 2021, which of itself was a pendulum swing from a record 9.2 million job losses in 2020, BLS data shows.

“The Federal Reserve would like to see a [monthly job growth] number closer to 100,000 or below that,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “That’s more in line with a clearly cooling labor market.”

Economists are also expecting average hourly earnings growth to slow on a monthly and year-over-year basis, to 0.4% and 5%, respectively, according to Refinitiv.

Wage gains, although outpaced by inflation, remain well above pre-pandemic averages and beyond what the Fed wants to see in its price-busting campaign. Chair Jerome Powell, while acknowledging that the wage increases did not cause inflation to spike to the highest levels in 40 years, has repeatedly noted that persistent wage growth in such a tight labor market could keep inflation levels elevated.

“This is a set of labor market data that for workers and job seekers, [continued, strong nominal wage growth] it’s very much positive news,” Bunker said. “But for central bankers, they see this as a problem.”

Inflation has started to come down in recent months, with key gauges showing declines. But for the Fed to reach its desired target of 2% inflation, the labor market will have to take a hit, with unemployment rising to about 4.6% this year, according to the central bank’s projections released in December.

“The fact that inflation appears to be cooling down without the labor market taking a significant hit is a sign that a lot of this very high inflation was not driven by the labor market and that it is possible for inflation to be coming down from these levels without the labor market taking a hit,” Bunker said.

“But it’s unclear how far inflation can fall without the labor market deteriorating, or rather, it’s not clear what the underlying pace of inflation is with the labor market this tight.”

—CNN’s Matt Egan contributed to this report.

Read original article here

Alan Greenspan says US recession is likely


New York
CNN
 — 

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes a US recession is the “most likely outcome” of the Fed’s aggressive rate hike regime meant to curb inflation. He joins a growing chorus of economists predicting imminent economic downturn.

His views are particularly important. Not only did Greenspan serve five terms as Fed chair under four different presidents between 1987 and 2006, but he was the last chair to successfully navigate a soft landing, in 1994. In the 12 months that followed February 1994 Greenspan nearly doubled interest rates to 6% and managed to keep the economy steady, avoiding recession.

Greenspan, now 96, said in a note this week that he doubts this current bout of hikes will result in a repeat performance.

The last two months of data showed that prices are beginning to decelerate – good news but not good enough, he said. “I don’t think it will warrant a Fed reversal that is substantial enough to avoid at least a mild recession,” said Greenspan, now a senior economic adviser to Advisors Capital Management, in commentary released on the company’s website Tuesday.

The Fed hiked interest rates seven times last year, increasing the rate that banks charge each other for overnight borrowing to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, the highest since 2007. Fed officials still expect to raise rates by another percentage point, according to projections released during their December monetary policy meeting.

Wage increases and, by extension, employment, “still need to soften further for a pullback in inflation to be anything more than transitory,” said Greenspan. “So we may have a brief period of calm on the inflation front, but I think it will be too little too late.” Unemployment rates remain near historic lows, holding at 3.7% in November. New employment data is set to be released Friday morning.

Greenspan doubts the Fed will loosen interest rates soon because “inflation could flare up again and we would be back at square one,” he said. “Furthermore, this could potentially damage the Federal Reserve’s credibility as a purveyor of stable prices, especially if the action were seen to be taken merely to protect the stock market rather than in response to truly unstable financial conditions.”

He does see some good news for investors on the horizon. Markets won’t be nearly as chaotic in 2023 as they were last year, he said. “I believe 2022 would be a tough year to top with respect to market volatility,” he remarked.

Read original article here

PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, shows prices cooling


Minneapolis
CNN
 — 

The trend is clear: Inflation is cooling off in America.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measurement of inflation showed price increases continued to moderate in November, providing yet another welcome indication that the period of painfully high prices has peaked.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE, rose 5.5% in November from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That’s lower than in October, when prices rose 6.1% annually.

In November alone, prices rose just 0.1% from October.

Core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, was up 4.7% annually and 0.2% on a monthly basis, matching expectations of economists polled by Refinitiv.

The annual increases for both PCE inflation indexes hit their lowest levels since October 2021 and follows continued declines in other inflation gauges, such as the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index.

PCE, specifically the core measurement, is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, since it provides a more complete picture of costs for consumers.

Friday’s report also showed that spending continued to rise in November, but at a much slower pace than in previous months. Spending was up 0.1% in November as compared to 0.8% the month before. Personal income increased by 0.4% in November, down from 0.7% in October.

The November PCE report, the last major inflation gauge released in 2022, provided a snapshot of an economy in transition. Tasked with reining in the highest inflation since the early 1980s, the Fed has undertaken a series of blockbuster interest rate hikes to squelch demand.

In its seven meetings starting in March, the central bank’s policymaking arm raised its benchmark interest rate by a cumulative 4.25 percentage points. The sharp hike in rates has started to filter through the economy, its effects showing up first in areas such as real estate, where mortgage rates were 6.27% this week, more than double the rate seen last year at this time, according to Freddie Mac data.

“The economy is moving in the right direction from the Federal Reserve’s perspective at the end of 2022, but not quickly enough,” Gus Faucher, chief economist for PNC Financial Services, said in a statement. “Higher interest rates are weighing on consumer spending, particularly for durable goods, and inflation is slowing.”

Inflation has moderated in recent months, especially on items like goods as supply chain bottlenecks have eased and consumers focused more spending in areas like leisure and hospitality.

However, inflation within the services sector has been a little “sticky,” and not abating as quickly. Friday’s PCE report showed the services index posted a monthly increase of 0.4% – unchanged from October’s rate – and a year-over-year increase of more than 11%, Faucher noted.

While much of the services inflation is due to housing costs, which are rapidly reversing, the Fed is concerned that strong wage growth could fuel persistent increases in services prices and overall inflation, he added.

“The Federal Open Market Committee will continue to increase the fed funds rate in early 2023 until it becomes more apparent that the job market is cooling, and wage growth and services inflation are slowing to more sustainable paces,” he added.

The Fed’s latest economic projections that were released last week showed that board members were expecting inflation to remain slightly higher for longer than previously forecast. Fed board members now expect PCE inflation to end 2023 at 3.1% and core PCE to finish next year at 3.5%, above the central bank’s target rate of 2%.

A separate Commerce Department report released Friday showed that new orders for manufactured goods tumbled 2.1% in November, the biggest monthly drop since the onset of the pandemic.

Transportation equipment, specifically new orders for non-defense aircraft and parts, drove the decline, according to the report. Excluding transportation, new orders increase 0.2%.

Shipments increased 0.2% in November, which followed a 0.4% increase in October.

“Core durable goods orders slowed but did not contract, reflecting growing unease about the economy,” Diane Swonk, chief economist for KPMG, tweeted Friday after the report’s release. “Manufacturing activity has begun to contract and prelim reading for December suggests it will contract further at year end. A cold winter expected for the manufacturing sector.

Inflation’s slow march downward has been welcome news to consumers as well, helping to perk up their economic sentiments during December, according to new data released Friday by the University of Michigan.

The final December reading for the index of consumer sentiment came in at 59.7 in December, up slightly from a preliminary measurement of 59.1 and November’s final reading of 56.8, according to data from the university’s Surveys of Consumers.

“Consumers clearly welcomed the recent easing of inflation,” Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers, said in a statement. “While sentiment appears to have turned a corner from its all-time low from June, consumers have reserved judgment about whether the trends will continue.”

She added: “Their outlook for the economy may have improved, but it remains relatively weak. The sustainability of robust consumer spending is contingent on continued strength in incomes and labor markets in the quarters ahead.”

The report showed the biggest improvement in sentiment about business conditions, while inflation expectations also improved by falling to 4.4% in December, the lowest reading in 18 months, according to the university. This is a key data point for the Federal Reserve. If consumers believe prices will remain high, that could factor into increased wage demands, which could cause businesses to raise prices.

Earlier this week, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index – another measure of how consumers are feeling about the economy – landed at its highest measurement since April 2022.



Read original article here

‘Out of control’: No one knows how much to tip


New York
CNN
 — 

A new checkout trend is sweeping across America, making for an increasingly awkward experience: digital tip jars.

You order a coffee, an ice cream, a salad or a slice of pizza and pay with your credit card or phone. Then, an employee standing behind the counter spins around a touch screen and slides it in front of you. The screen has a few suggested tip amounts – usually 10%, 15% or 20%. There’s also often an option to leave a custom tip or no tip at all.

The worker is directly across from you. Other customers are standing behind, waiting impatiently and looking over your shoulder to see how much you tip. And you must make a decision in seconds. Oh lord, the stress.

Customers and workers today are confronted with a radically different tipping culture compared to just a few years ago — without any clear norms. Although consumers are accustomed to tipping waiters, bartenders and other service workers, tipping a barista or cashier may be a new phenomenon for many shoppers. It’s being driven in large part by changes in technology that have enabled business owners to more easily shift the costs of compensating workers directly to customers.

“I don’t know how much you’re supposed to tip and I study this,” said Michael Lynn, a professor of consumer behavior and marketing at Cornell University and one of the leading researchers on US tipping habits.

Adding to the changing dynamics, customers were encouraged to tip generously during the pandemic to help keep restaurants and stores afloat, raising expectations. Total tips for full-service restaurants were up 25% during the latest quarter compared to a year ago, while tips at quick-service restaurants were up 17%, according to data from Square.

The shift to digital payments also accelerated during the pandemic, leading stores to replace old-fashioned cash tip jars with tablet touch screens. But these screens and the procedures for digital tipping have proven more intrusive than a low-pressure cash tip jar with a few bucks in it.

Customers are overwhelmed by the number of places where they now have the option to tip and feel pressure about whether to add a gratuity and for how much. Some people deliberately walk away from the screen without doing anything to avoid making a decision, say etiquette experts who study tipping culture and consumer behavior.

Tipping can be an emotionally charged decision. Attitudes towards tipping in these new settings vary widely.

Some customers tip no matter what. Others feel guilty if they don’t tip or embarrassed if their tip is stingy. And others eschew tipping for a $5 iced coffee, saying the price is already high enough.

“The American public feels like tipping is out of control because they’re experiencing it in places they’re not used to,” said Lizzie Post, co-president of the Emily Post Institute and its namesake’s great-great-granddaughter. “Moments where tipping isn’t expected makes people less generous and uncomfortable.”

Starbucks has rolled out tipping this year as an option for customers paying with credit and debit cards. Some Starbucks baristas told CNN that the tips are adding extra money to their paychecks, but customers shouldn’t feel obligated to tip every time.

One barista in Washington State said that he understands if a customer doesn’t tip for a drip coffee order. But if he makes a customized drink after spending time talking to the customer about exactly how it should be made, “it does make me a little bit disappointed if I don’t receive a tip.”

“If someone can afford Starbucks every day, they can afford to tip on at least a few of those trips,” added the employee, who spoke under the condition of anonymity.

The option to tip is seemingly everywhere today, but the practice has a troubled history in the United States.

Tipping spread after the Civil War as an exploitative measure to keep down wages of newly-freed slaves in service occupations. Pullman was the most notable for its tipping policies. The railroad company hired thousands of Black porters, but paid them low wages and forced them to rely on tips to make a living.

Critics of tipping argued that it created an imbalance between customers and workers, and several states passed laws in the early 1900s to ban the practice.

In “The Itching Palm,” a 1916 diatribe on tipping in America, writer William Scott said that tipping was “un-American” and argued that “the relation of a man giving a tip and a man accepting it is as undemocratic as the relation of master and slave.”

But tipping service workers was essentially built into law by the 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act, which created the federal minimum wage that excluded restaurant and hospitality workers. This allowed the tipping system to proliferate in these industries.

In 1966, Congress created a “subminimum” wage for tipped workers. The federal minimum wage for tipped employees has stood at $2.13 per hour — lower than the $7.25 federal minimum — since 1991, although many states require higher base wages for tipped employees. If a server’s tips don’t add up to the federal minimum, the law says that the employer must make up the difference. But this doesn’t always happen. Wage theft and other wage violations are common in the service industry.

The Department of Labor considers any employee working in a job that “customarily and regularly” receives more than $30 a month in tips as eligible to be classified a tipped worker. Experts estimate there are more than five million tipped workers in the United States.

Just how much to tip is entirely subjective and varies across industries, and the link between the quality of service and the tip amount is surprisingly weak, Lynn from Cornell said.

He theorized that a 15% to 20% tip at restaurants became standard because of a cycle of competition among customers. Many people tip to gain social approval or with the expectation of better service. As tip levels increase, other customers start tipping more to avoid any losses in status or risk poorer service.

The gig economy has also changed tipping norms. An MIT study released in 2019 found that customers are less likely to tip when workers have autonomy over whether and when to work. Nearly 60% of Uber customers never tip, while only about 1% always tip, a 2019 University of Chicago study found.

What makes it confusing, Lynn said, is that “there’s no central authority that establishes tipping norms. They come from the bottom up. Ultimately, it’s what people do that helps establish what other people should do.”

You should almost always tip workers earning the subminimum wage such as restaurant servers and bartenders, say advocates and tipping experts.

When given the option to tip in places where workers make an hourly wage, such as Starbucks baristas, customers should use their discretion and remove any guilt from their decision, etiquette experts say. Tips help these workers supplement their income and are always encouraged, but it’s okay to say no.

Etiquette experts recommend that customers approach the touch screen option the same way they would a tip jar. If they would leave change or a small cash tip in the jar, do so when prompted on the screen.

“A 10% tip for takeaway food is a really common amount. We also see change or a single dollar per order,” said Lizzie Post. If you aren’t sure what to do, ask the worker if the store has a suggested tip amount.

Saru Jayaraman, president of One Fair Wage, which advocates to end subminimum wage policies, encourages customers to tip. But tips should never count against service workers’ wages, and customers must demand that businesses pay workers a full wage, she said.

“We’ve got to tip, but it’s got to be combined with telling employers that tips have to be on top, not instead of, a full minimum wage,” she said.

Read original article here

Dow and S&P 500 updates: Stock market news


New York
CNN
 — 

The good vibes on Wall Street are fading fast: US slid tumbled yet again on Friday as investors come to grips with a souring economy.

The Dow ended the day down 282 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite was 1% lower.

The sell-off has been broad, but the real estate and consumer discretionary sectors were been hit the hardest, down more than 3% and 1.8%, respectively.

Is the Fed to blame? Sentiment on Wall Street can change on a dime, and this week is evidence of that: The Dow has tumbled about 1,050 points just since the Federal Reserve’s dour policy update at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday.

CNN Business’ Fear and Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, finally dipped into “Fear” Friday. The market has been in “Greed” mode for weeks.

Stocks had been riding high this month on weaker-than-expected inflation and a number of stronger-than-expected reports on the broad economy and the job market. Investors were hopeful that the Federal Reserve could slow its historic pace of rate hikes and inflation could right itself sometime next year without tipping the economy into a recession.

That excitement continued right up until Fed Chair Jerome Powell crashed Wall Street’s party Wednesday with some tough news: Economists at the Fed believe US gross domestic product, the broadest measure of America’s economy, will barely grow next year.

And they predict the US unemployment rate will rise to 4.6% by the end of 2023, which means roughly 1.6 million more Americans will be out of work.

Compounding fears from those Fed forecasts was a worse-than-expected retail sales report Thursday that sent stocks plunging. The Dow lost 765 points Thursday, or 2.3%, the index’s worst day in three months. The S&P 500 lost 2.5% and the Nasdaq tumbled 3.2%, their worst days in a month.

Now, economists at Moody’s Analytics predict America’s economy will grow at an annualized rate of just 1.9% in the fourth quarter, down from its previous estimate of 2.7%. Weak manufacturing and retail reports spooked Moody’s analysts, who also lowered their 2023 GDP forecast to just 0.9%, much lower than 2022’s 1.9% estimate.

“This leaves little room for anything to go wrong,” Moody’s economist Matt Colyar wrote in an analysis.

Not helping stocks: It’s December. Many traders are on vacation, volume is low and tiny moves can get exacerbated.

As my colleague Matt Egan notes, the market may be in a lose-lose situation. Good economic news has been bad news for investors, because the Fed is trying to cool down the economy as part of its inflation-fighting campaign. But bad economic news is also bad for investors – and everyone – because it raises the risk of a recession.

Adobe

(ADBE) and Facebook parent company Meta are the markets largest gainers today, up 3% and 2.8%, respectively. Adobe

(ADBE) shares soared after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and guidance. Meta, which is still down nearly 65% for the year, saw a tick after JPMorgan upgraded shares of the company to neutral from overweight.

– CNN’s Nicole Goodkind and Matt Egan contributed to this report

Read original article here