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Merkel’s legacy for Germany in charts

German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2011 visiting the laboratory for chemical engineering at the chemical plant of the Dow Olefinverbund GmbH in Schkopau, near Merseburg, eastern Germany.

AFP | AFP | Getty Images

It’s hard to believe now that Germany, Europe’s biggest and most successful economy, was known as the “sick man of Europe” in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Germany’s economy has grown under the leadership of outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel, the conservative leader who has headed the government for the past 16 years. In 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic struck, a quarter (24.7%) of the European Union’s entire gross domestic product was generated by Germany, according to Eurostat.

CNBC has created five charts looking at different parts of Germany’s economy, and society, during Merkel’s tenure. They show her legacy is not only one of prosperity but also one of missed opportunities and missteps, according to some political experts.

GDP

Germany’s export-oriented economy, one predicated heavily on manufacturing, has grown steadily during Merkel’s time in office, this chart shows, and has far outpaced its rivals in the U.K. and France.

When Merkel came to power in 2005, it’s worth remembering that Germany’s economy had experienced a recession just two years before. In the year she took office, Germany’s GDP stood at 2.3 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion), Germany’s federal statistics office data shows. In 2020, it was over 3.3 trillion euros.

The cokery plant of German industrial conglomerate ThyssenKrupp on Rhine river in Duisburg, western Germany in 2019.

INA FASSBENDER | AFP | Getty Images

Unemployment

The unemployment rate has also fallen while Merkel has been in office, from 11.1% in 2005 to 3.8% in 2020, according to data from the World Bank.

Germany has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the EU (although not the lowest, that accolade goes to its neighbor, the Netherlands). Nonetheless, Germany’s jobless rate is respectably low; in July 2021, the unemployment rate stood at 3.6% while for under-25s, the rate was higher, at 7.5%, Eurostat data shows.

Goldman Sachs analysts, assessing Merkel’s legacy, noted that while Merkel has had a “great success” in bringing down the unemployment rate, “much of the decline in structural unemployment likely stemmed from her predecessor’s (Gerhard Schroeder) reforms and was followed by a decade of stagnant real wages.”

Angela Merkel visiting a steelmill on August 30, 2005, in Georgsmarienhuette, Germany.

Thomas Imo | Photothek | Getty Images

The analysts noted that Merkel’s governments had nonetheless then “maintained sound public finances and adopted the constitutional debt brake, but responded forcefully during times of crisis, successfully shielding the labour market with the “Kurzarbeit” programme in 2008 and 2020.”

Kurzarbeit refers to Germany’s short-term work scheme whereby employers reduce their employees’ working hours instead of laying them off during times of crisis, like the Covid pandemic.

Immigration

One area where Germany differs starkly from its counterparts France and the U.K. is its immigration landscape under Merkel. And perhaps it’s this area where her chancellery faced both widespread praise, and also attracted controversy.

Syrian and Iraqi migrants sleep on railroad tracks waiting to be processed across the Macedonian border September 2, 2015 in Idomeni, Greece. Since the beginning of 2015 the number of migrants using the so-called ‘Balkans route’ has exploded with migrants arriving in Greece from Turkey and then travelling on through Macedonia and Serbia before entering the EU via Hungary. The number of people leaving their homes in war torn countries such as Syria, marks the largest migration of people since World War II.

Getty Images

At the height of Europe’s migration crisis in 2014-2015, hundreds of thousands of migrants entered the EU, many of them fleeing civil war in Syria. Arguments broke out within the bloc over how to allocate asylum seekers fairly between EU nations, with eastern European countries largely refusing and closing their borders.

Merkel made the bold decision to do the opposite, opening Germany’s borders and allowing more than an estimated 1 million refugees and migrants to enter Germany in 2015, a move reflected in the graph below. The Eurostat immigration data goes back only as far as 2008.

Merkel’s policy on migration around this time was seen as a catalyst for right-leaning voters to flock to the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany party. In 2021, however, its share of the vote had waned with the party garnering 10.3%.

Disposable income

Disposable household income in Germany has also steadily increased. When she first took the reins at the chancellery in 2005, the levels of household income in Germany, the U.K. and France were not so different but over time, the gap has widened with Germany leaping ahead.

In Germany, the adjusted gross disposable income of households per capita was 30,142 euros in 2019, whereas it was 25,155 euros in the U.K. and 26,158 euros in France, according to Eurostat data.

One issue highlighted by discussions on household income in Germany is the growing gap between the rich and poor. Particularly a divergence between the east and west of the country, reflecting a legacy of Germany’s pre-unification days in 1990.

In 2020, the OECD noted that while differences between German regions, in terms of GDP per capita, had decreased over the last 18 years, “regional disparities among remain above the median of OECD countries, with Hamburg having more than twice the GDP per capita than Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (a neighboring state).”

Shoppers browse items for sale inside a gift shop in Mannheim, Germany.

Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty Images

As Euromonitor International noted in a September report, “despite the income growth and initiatives to promote income equality, regional disparities persist between eastern and western parts of Germany.”

Public investment

One of the main criticisms leveled at Merkel’s government is that it has neglected infrastructure spending and investment because of its apparent unwillingness to borrow money and upset its strict adherence to a balanced budget, with the now infamous “schwarze Null,” or “black zero” budget rule seen as a symbol of Germany’s obsession with penny-pinching.

Decaying infrastructure in Germany has been attributed to this lack of spending and the government has been widely criticized for curtailing borrowing and spending at a time when it could have borrowed cheaply, given the low interest rate environment. Others have criticized Germany’s lack of spending and lower demand from Germany has created imbalances in the euro zone.

“The failure of the German government (among others) to engage in debt-financed spending after the crises of 2008 and 2011 has contributed substantially to the chronic lack of private demand, a tilted savings and investment balance, and distortive global and intra-euro zone trade imbalances,” Stefan Koopman, senior market economist at Rabobank, said in a note.

A national election poster for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party near a residential apartments construction site in the Mitte district of Berlin in 2021. After years of poor levels of investment in public infrastructure, there’s a broad consensus among all political parties that more will be needed in the coming decade.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The graph below shows patchy levels of gross capital formation (formerly known as gross domestic investment) in Germany, the U.K. and France since 2005.

Capital formation consists of outlays on additions to the fixed assets of the economy such as land improvements as well as plant, machinery, and equipment purchases, the construction of roads, railways, and the like, including schools, offices and hospitals.

Investing in such infrastructure is what Germany’s next government must tackle, experts note.

It’s widely recognized that Germany cannot hold off on much-needed infrastructure spending much longer, however, and as coalition talks take place to form a new government, much attention is being focused on how far each party involved could push for fiscal easing.

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Goldman Sachs cuts China’s GDP growth forecasts amid energy crunch

Workers at the Zhong Tian (Zenith) Steel Group Corporation in Changzhou, China’s Jiangsu province on May 12, 2016.

Kevin Frayer | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Goldman Sachs economists have cut their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2021 as the world’s second-largest economy faces “yet another growth shock” in the form of constraints on energy consumption.

The Wall Street banking giant now expects China’s GDP to grow 7.8% in 2021 compared with a year ago — that’s lower than its previous forecast for an 8.2% year-on-year expansion. Goldman’s downgrade followed similar moves by Nomura and Fitch.

“A relatively new, but tightening, constraint on growth comes from increased regulatory pressure to meet environmental targets for energy consumption and energy intensity,” the economists said in a Tuesday report.

Chinese President Xi Jinping announced in September last year that China is aiming to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. That kicked off national and local plans to reduce production of coal and other carbon-heavy processes.

Hit to factory output

Efforts to reduce emissions and a shortage in coal supplies caused power shortages across China that halted production at factories including those supplying Apple and Tesla, reported Reuters.

“The peculiar nature of the Covid shock has made the economy more energy-intensive, at least temporarily,” said Goldman’s economists, explaining that an exports boom following the pandemic increased the demand for power from manufacturers.  

“Meanwhile, efforts to reduce coal-fired related emissions and a reduction in coal imports have affected supply levels at least on the margin, contributing to a sharp increase in prices,” they added.

Goldman said production cuts among manufacturers and less fiscal support mean that the Chinese economy will grow at a slower pace in the third and fourth quarters this year.

The bank expects China’s economy to grow 4.8% in the third quarter of 2021 compared to a year ago, and 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Previously, Goldman’s forecasts were 5.1% and 4.1% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively.

China said its economy grew 7.9% year-on-year in the second quarter this year.

Impact on Asia-Pacific

Rising uncertainty in the Chinese economy will affect economic growth prospects across Asia-Pacific, ratings agency S&P Global Ratings said Tuesday.  

The agency downgraded its 2021 growth forecast for China to 8% from 8.3%. It also cut its growth projection for Asia-Pacific to 6.7% for this year from 7.5% previously.

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“One downside and rising risk relates to a changing growth path in China,” Paul Gruenwald, global chief economist for S&P Global Ratings, said in a report.

Persistent Covid waves have also weakened the region’s economic outlook, said the agency. But vaccination rates have increased while countries have become more tolerant of further Covid outbreaks — which will allow economies to gradually open, it added.  

— CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.

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As the Fed holds rates near zero for now, what that means for you

Even though the Federal Reserve didn’t raise its benchmark rate Wednesday, your borrowing costs may still start to head higher.

Rising prices brought on by the economic recovery are paving the way for the central bank to unwind last year’s bond buying. While the central bank said that interest rates will stay near zero for now, the tapering of bond purchases is seen as the first step on the way to interest rate hikes.

And that, alone, may impact the rate you pay on your mortgage, credit card and car loan.

“Tapering itself is going to increase yields in the medium- and long-term horizons, which will translate into higher borrowing costs,” said Yiming Ma, an assistant finance professor at Columbia University Business School.

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For now, homeowners have an unparalleled opportunity to refinance or take some money out of their houses at record-low rates.

The average 30-year fixed-rate home mortgage is around 3.03%, the lowest since February, according to Bankrate.

“Refinancing is the most impactful step most households can take,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

“The ability to cut your monthly payments by $200 frees up some breathing room at time when so many other costs are on the rise.”

Once the Fed starts to slow the pace of bond purchases, long-term fixed mortgage rates will inevitably move higher, since they are influenced by the economy and inflation.

As the Fed signals a move away from its easy-money policy, “then likely that means they will proceed with a rate hike cycle sooner,” Ma said.

“That could also directly factor into short-term rates,” she added. “It’s understood that one will follow the other.”

Many homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages or home equity lines of credit, which are pegged to the prime rate, could be affected. When the federal funds rate does rise, the prime rate will, as well.

It’s likely that card rates will continue to inch higher, even without any help from Washington, D.C.

Matt Schulz

chief credit analyst for LendingTree

The same goes for other types of short-term borrowing, particularly credit cards.

Credit card rates are now as low as 16.21%, down from a high of 17.85%, according to Bankrate, but most credit cards have a variable rate, which means there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark.

“They’ve actually been creeping up since bottoming out shortly after the Fed’s March 2020 rate cuts,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst for LendingTree.

“Rates are still well below what they were before the pandemic, but over time, those small moves really add up,” he added. “And with today’s economic uncertainty, it’s likely that card rates will continue to inch higher, even without any help from Washington, D.C.”

Borrowers should call their card issuer and ask for a lower rate, switch to a zero-interest balance transfer credit card or consolidate and pay off high-interest credit cards with a home equity loan or personal loan, Schulz advised.

Currently, the average interest rate on personal loans is down to 10.46% and a home equity line of credit is as low as 3.88%. Anyone shopping for a car will see a similar trend with auto loans. The average five-year new car loan rate is down to 3.95%, according to Bankrate.

“That can be a great tailwind to help you get out of debt,” McBride said.

Even student loan borrowers are nearing the end of their break on federal student loan payments, which the U.S. Department of Education has offered since the start of the pandemic. (If you’re still unemployed or dealing with financial hardship because of Covid, there are other options for dealing with college debt.)

Only savers may benefit once rates start to rise, although that happens much more slowly.

The Fed has no direct influence on deposit rates; however, those tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate. As a result, the average online savings account yield has fallen to 0.45% from 1.75% since the Fed cut its benchmark rate to near zero, according to DepositAccounts.com founder Ken Tumin.

The savings account rate at some of the largest retail banks is even lower, down to a mere 0.06%, on average.

“Based on history from 2015 to 2017, no significant increase in savings account rates are anticipated until the Fed is well underway with its rate hikes,” Tumin said.

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Fed’s next meeting in focus

LONDON — European stocks opened lower on Monday as global markets contend with concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tapering timetable.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down by around 1.5% in early deals with basic resources and banks leading the losses.

The lower open for Europe come as global stocks continue to struggle in September, traditionally a weak month for markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average seeing three straight weeks of losses for the first time in 2021.

Global markets are also experiencing some jitters ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated September meeting, which starts Tuesday.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference Wednesday at the conclusion of the two-day meeting with investors keen to pick up any indications about the Fed’s tapering of its easy monetary policy.

Powell has said the tapering could occur this year but investors are waiting for more specifics, particularly after mixed economic data released since Powell’s last comments. U.S. stock futures were mixed in overnight trading Sunday.

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Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led losses among Asia-Pacific markets in overnight trade on Sunday, with shares of embattled Chinese developer China Evergrande Group continuing to drop. Markets in mainland China, Japan and South Korea are closed on Monday for holidays.

There are no major earnings releases in Europe on Monday, but data releases include U.K. house price data for September and German producer prices for August.

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– CNBC’s Hannah Miao and Eustance Huang contributed to this market report.

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Will France try to edge out Germany after Merkel leaves office

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel (L) and France’s President Emmanuel Macron attends an EU summit at the European Council building in Brussels, on July 18, 2020, as the leaders of the European Union hold their first face-to-face summit over a post-virus economic rescue plan.

FRANCOIS LENOIR | AFP | Getty Images

When long-standing and influential German Chancellor Angela Merkel leaves office after the country’s upcoming federal election, many political pundits will be keeping an eye on France.

That’s because experts think that France — and specifically, President Emmanuel Macron — is waiting in the wings for an opportunity to try to replace Germany as Europe’s de facto leader and arguably, the region’s superpower.

Macron is likely to attempt to become Europe’s central figurehead once Merkel leaves, analysts say, and has been positioning himself to achieve that for a while.

“As regards Macron, we already see tentative attempts to take leadership in Europe,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC Thursday.

He pointed to “Macron’s interventions when it comes to European debates on fiscal rules.” France has called for the EU to relax rules regarding member states’ budget deficits and debt-to-GDP levels, particularly in light of the coronavirus pandemic, while Germany has traditionally opposed any loosening of the rules that are meant to restrain deficits and debt.

“Germany is currently too much occupied with itself to really care but strong French leadership without a German counterweight has hardly ever been appreciated in Berlin,” Brzeski noted.

One thing that might mollify Germany, Brzeski noted, was that it knows that Macron has his own presidential battles to come, with a French presidential election due next April.

“This will leave less time for strong European leadership initiatives, even though France will have the EU presidency next year,” Brzeski said.

“[I] guess that the real test case will come after the French elections, in case Macron gets re-elected. We could then see a more powerful attempt to grab European leadership. This gives any next German chancellor around a year to grow into Merkel’s shoes,” he said.

Who would Macron prefer?

Like the rest of Europe, France is closely following the course of the election campaign in Germany and will have watched the rise in popularity of the center-left Social Democratic Party with interest.

The party’s candidate for chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is the current finance minister and vice chancellor and, as such, is no stranger to the responsibilities of high office or other leaders in Europe.

Macron welcomed both Scholz and rival Armin Laschet to the Elysee Palace in early September. Notably absent was an invitation to Germany’s Green Party candidate Annalena Baerbock.

Analysts say Macron would likely favor working with Scholz over Laschet, the candidate put forward by the ruling conservative CDU-CSU bloc as a successor to Merkel.

“Of the two leading Chancellor-candidates, sources in the Elysee suggest Macron would be comfortable with either man, but has a slight preference for Scholz, who has already, as federal finance minister, worked closely with Paris on the ground-breaking EU post-Covid recovery fund,’ Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman and Anna-Carina Hamker said in a note last week.

Economic clout

While Macron might find he’s compatible with the next German chancellor when it comes to a common approach to EU policy, one area where France would find it hard to equal Germany is in terms of economic clout.

In 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic struck, almost a quarter of the EU’s gross domestic product (24.7%) was generated by Germany, followed by France (17.4%) and Italy (12.8%), ahead of Spain (8.9%) and the Netherlands (5.8%), according to Eurostat.

“Germany is Germany,” Naz Masraff, director of Europe at Eurasia Group, told CNBC Thursday. “Even though France sees this as an opportunity, I don’t think you’re going to see Germany’s role being diminished. It may be less effective but I don’t think it will diminish.”

“Inevitably, Merkel is going to be leaving very big shoes to fill after 16 years but at the end of the day, Germany is the key country in Europe and whoever is the German finance minister, whoever is the German chancellor, will be [leading] exactly that,” she said.

Economists say Germany’s economy is likely to remain competitive whoever leads the government.

“Germany’s power and influence reflects the strength of its economy, the solid state of its public finances and its undisputed role as the financial anchor of the euro zone,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC Thursday. “Faces change, but that will remain under both Laschet or Scholz.”

“Under Macron, France is catching up nicely. But it is far away from really catching up to the economic and financial might of Germany,” he said.

Brzeski agreed that while “initially everyone thinks that Merkel is irreplaceable … given the economic weight of the country, any new chancellor will be important.”

“Maybe not at the start but after a while,” he added.

Unpopularity contest

It’s unlikely that Macron could enjoy the popularity ratings of Merkel, a leader who is leaving office of her own accord after 16 years.

Merkel has been seen as a steady pair of hands, bringing stability and consistency to Germany’s (and Europe’s) political landscape despite various crises over the past decades, from the financial crash to the migration crisis.

According to a recent poll of 12 EU countries by the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, most Europeans surveyed were skeptical about Macron’s ability to match Merkel’s leadership skills.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron (2nd L) and Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel (R) look at US President Donald Trump (front L) and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (front R) walking past them during a family photo as part of the NATO summit at the Grove hotel in Watford, northeast of London on December 4, 2019.

Christian Hartman | AFP | Getty Images

When the ECFR asked respondents who they would vote for in a hypothetical contest between Merkel and Macron for an EU president role, a majority of Europeans (41%) said they would vote for Merkel, and just 14% for Macron. The remaining 45% said they didn’t know, or wouldn’t vote at all.

Still, the poll, conducted in early summer with the results published last week, found that there is pessimism at home and abroad about Germany’s post-Merkel future with most Germans (52%) holding the view that their country is past its “golden age.”

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Germany’s golden age is over, most Europeans think, as Merkel leaves

Chancellor Angela Merkel, a popular leader, shakes hands with the crowd alongside former U.S. President Barack Obama during a visit to the U.S.

JIM WATSON | AFP | Getty Images

Under the leadership of Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany’s power and influence in European — and global — affairs has been indisputable.

Now she’s leaving office after 16 years, many Europeans believe the country’s “golden age” is over — including a majority of Germans, according to a recent poll.

The survey, conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank in 12 EU countries in early summer with the results published this week, found that Europeans still regard Merkel as a unifying force, and expect Germany to continue to provide leadership within the EU. Nonetheless, there is pessimism at home and abroad about Germany’s post-Merkel future.

The poll found that many Europeans view Germany as a declining power — no more so than in Germany, where a majority (52%) hold the view that their country is past its “golden age.” Only 15% of respondents in Germany said they believe their country is still in its “golden age” today, with 9% of respondents believing that it is still to come.

Across Europe more broadly, a third of Europeans (34%) surveyed said that Germany’s star is fading, 21% said it is in its “golden age” today, and just 10% believed this period is in the future.

The data highlights uncertainty in both Germany and its neighbors over the future of the country, and its de facto leadership of the EU, once Merkel leaves office after the federal election on Sept. 26.

Merkel Vs. Macron

Despite some controversial policies, Merkel, age 67, is leaving office on her terms. She remains a popular figurehead in Europe, and far more so than her French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, although analysts expect Macron to try to fill something of a leadership vacuum left by Merkel.

When the ECFR asked respondents who they would vote for in a hypothetical contest between Germany’s Merkel and France’s Macron for an EU president role, the think tank found a majority of Europeans (41%) would vote for Merkel, and just 14% would vote for Macron (the remaining 45% said they didn’t know, or wouldn’t vote).

The highest support for Merkel in this hypothetical election was found in the Netherlands (58%), Spain (57%) and Portugal (52%). Even among the French, 32% would vote for Merkel and 20% for Macron.

It is perhaps not surprising that there is such an enduring fondness for Merkel. She is seen as a stable pair of hands, pragmatic and cool-headed in a crisis — and she’s had a few of those to deal with in her time in office.

Merkel has guided Germany, the euro zone and wider EU through several traumas including the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone that peaked around 2012 and the migration crisis of 2015-2016. Most recently, she has played a prominent role in Europe’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, and along with Macron oversaw the EU recovery plan.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron (2nd L) and Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel (R) look at US President Donald Trump (front L) and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (front R) walking past them during a family photo as part of the NATO summit at the Grove hotel in Watford, northeast of London on December 4, 2019.

Christian Hartman | AFP | Getty Images

Merkel’s policies during periods of crisis have not always won her friends, however. She became something of a hate figure in Greece during its debt crisis as Germany advocated that strict austerity measures should be imposed on Athens as a condition of international bailouts.

Meanwhile, her decision to allow hundreds of thousands of migrants, mainly from Syria, to enter Germany during the migration crisis also caused consternation in the country, and was largely seen as boosting public support for the right-wing Alternative for Germany party.

Future leadership

How Germany’s relationship with the rest of the EU, and de facto leadership of the bloc, might change once Merkel leaves office is one of the great unknowns of her departure.

In the ECFR’s latest report entitled “Beyond Merkelism: What Europeans expect from post-election Germany,” published Tuesday, authors Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin note that the post-Merkel political leadership in Germany will have no choice but to change its role in, and relationship with, the EU.

“‘Merkelism’ is no longer sustainable, and Germany’s next chancellor will have to find another way forward,” Piotr Buras, co-author and head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, commented.

“Merkel may have adroitly maintained the status quo across the continent over the past 15 years, but the challenges that Europe faces now – the pandemic, climate change, and geopolitical competition – require radical solutions, not cosmetic changes. What the EU needs now is a visionary Germany that will stand up for the bloc’s values and defend its place in the world.”

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Treasury yields are mixed following inflation data

U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Wednesday morning, following data which showed lower-than-expected inflation.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose less than a basis point to 1.28% at 3:50 a.m. ET. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell by nearly 1 basis point to 1.845%. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.

The 10-year yield fell to 1.277% on Tuesday, after August’s consumer price index increased by 5.3% year-on-year, below a forecast of 5.4%. The core CPI rose by just 0.1% month-on-month in August, below an expected increase of 0.3%.

Willem Sels, chief investment officer, private banking and wealth management at HSBC, said on Tuesday that the data should “provide some comfort that inflation does not seem to be accelerating any further, and that the Fed can therefore take a gradual approach to policy normalization and tapering.”

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Sels said that HSBC expected inflation to come down later in the years, partly because “commodity price base effects will become more deflationary near year-end.”

“However, there is uncertainty about the speed and the extent of the fall, as many variables influence inflation,” he added, referring to the increased spread of the delta variant and supply chain issues.

In terms of economic data due out on Wednesday, August’s import and export prices are set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Industrial production data for August is then due to come out at 9:15 a.m. ET.

An auction will be held on Wednesday for $30 billion of 119-day bills.

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Stock futures inch higher after Dow, S&P snap 5-day losing streak

U.S. stock index futures were modestly higher during overnight trading on Monday, after the S&P 500 finished in the green, snapping a five-day losing streak.

Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39 points. S&P 500 futures gained 0.12%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.08%.

The Dow and S&P both advanced during regular trading for the first time in six sessions as investors bet that some recent selling looked overdone. The Dow gained about 260 points, or 0.76%, after at one point during the session rising nearly 1%. The S&P advanced 0.23%.

The Nasdaq Composite, however, bucked the trend and slid 0.07% for its fourth straight negative session. The tech-heavy index is on its longest daily losing streak since mid-July.

Eight out of 11 sectors finished in the green, led higher by energy stocks, which jumped on the back of rising oil prices.

Stocks linked to the economic reopening – including airlines and cruise line operators — also gained after the seven-day daily U.S. Covid case average declined to around 144,300, down from roughly 167,600 cases per day at the beginning of the month.

“In the near-term, we expect increased stock market volatility, although long-term investors should use pullbacks to add to stock exposure,” noted Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at Treasury Partners. “The next six weeks tend to be seasonally weak for stocks, which is an additional worry for a stock market that is already facing elevated valuations and a lack of near-term upside catalysts,” he added.

Closely-watched inflation data will be released on Tuesday when August’s consumer price index reading is released. Economists are expecting consumer prices to have risen 0.4% month over month during August, and 5.4% year over year, according to estimates from Dow Jones. The print comes after producer prices jumped 8.3% year over year during August, marking the largest annual increase since records were first kept in November 2010.

The National Federation of Independent Business will also release its latest survey on Tuesday, which will provide investors with a pulse on how small businesses are faring.

In Washington, House Democrats proposed new tax hikes to pay for the $3.5 trillion spending package. A summary from the Ways and Means Committee showed that the plan calls for top corporate and individual tax rates of 26.5% and 39.6%, respectively.

The major averages are all down at least 1% for September, and RBC doesn’t see the S&P 500 surging into the end of the year. The firm raised its year-end target for the benchmark index to 4,500 on Monday, up from a prior target of 4,325. The new target is less than 1% above where the index closed on Monday. The firm also introduced a 2022 year-end target of 4,900.

“We continue to think the S&P 500 will experience a bout of volatility/meaningful pullback before the year is up, a call that we’ve been making for the past several months due to elevated equity market sentiment and positioning,” the firm wrote in a note to clients.

“While we take the reasons for a pullback seriously, we also see economic recession risks as low, reducing the likelihood of a full growth scare, and intend to treat it as a buying opportunity,” RBC added.

The Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting on September 21.

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Stock futures are modestly higher after Dow, S&P post five straight days of losses

U.S. stock index futures were modestly higher during overnight trading on Sunday as the S&P 500 comes off its longest daily losing streak since February. Fears over slowing economic growth and rising inflation have weighed on the market.

Futures contracts tied to Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 91 points. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.26%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.24%.

All three major averages finished lower on Friday, with the Dow and S&P posting a fifth straight day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite registered its third consecutive negative session.

For the week, the Dow and S&P dipped 2.15% and 1.69%, respectively, which was each average’s worst weekly performance since June. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted its worst week since July, sliding 1.61%.

Data released Friday showed that producer prices rose 0.7% in August and 8.3% year over year, which was the biggest annual increase since records were first kept in November 2010.

The closely watched consumer price index will be released on Tuesday, at which point the Street will see how much of the heightened costs are being passed along to consumers. Economists surveyed by FactSet are expecting the reading to show that consumer prices jumped 5.3% on an annual pace in August. Retail sales data will be released later in the week.

“Supply bottlenecks, inventory shortages, higher commodity prices, and higher shipping rates have all contributed to higher input costs,” noted Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. “[Friday’s] data on wholesale prices should be eye-opening for the Fed, as inflation pressures still don’t appear to be easing and will likely continue to be felt by the consumer in the coming months,” he added.

Stocks have been under pressure since August’s jobs report, released by the Labor Department on September 3, missed expectations. Worries are rippling through the market that the pandemic will continue to hamper economic growth while hot inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to take action.

“The negative impact of the delta variant on the cyclical trade is clear,” noted strategists at Jefferies. “It is increasingly evident that the impact of delta has delayed any Federal Reserve attempt at tapering, just as it has given fresh momentum to the Big Tech stocks with growth outperforming value so far this quarter.”

The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day policy meeting on September 21, where investors will be looking for clues about the central bank’s bond-buying program.

Despite last week’s losses, the major averages are still relatively close to their record levels. the Dow is 2.87% from its all-time high, while the S&P is 1.92% below its high-water mark. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, has slid 1.87% from its record.

For the year all three have registered double-digit percentage gains, but the ongoing impact from Covid-19 could slow the pace of recovery.

“The outlook for post-pandemic economic growth has cooled in time for autumn,” Goldman Sachs said Friday in a note to clients. “Within the market, pricing for months has reflected the weakening economic environment,” the firm said. Last week Goldman cut its GDP growth projection for the fourth quarter, citing the delta variant’s impact on consumer spending.

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