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Business

Goldman job cuts hit investment banking, global markets hard -source

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  • Mass redundancies, spending review beckons for Wall Street giant
  • Cuts to all major divisions expected, globally
  • Restructuring in Asian wealth unit kicks off Wednesday’s layoffs

NEW YORK/LONDON/HONG KONG, Jan 12 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs (GS.N) began laying off staff on Wednesday in a sweeping cost-cutting drive, with around a third of those affected coming from the investment banking and global markets division, a source familiar with the matter said.

The long-expected jobs cull at the Wall Street titan is expected to represent the biggest contraction in headcount since the financial crisis. It is likely to affect most of the bank’s major divisions, with its investment banking arm facing the deepest cuts, a source told Reuters this month.

Just over 3,000 employees will be let go, the source, who could not be named, said on Monday. A separate source confirmed on Wednesday that cuts had started.

“We know this is a difficult time for people leaving the firm,” a Goldman Sachs statement on Wednesday said.

“We’re grateful for all our people’s contributions, and we’re providing support to ease their transitions. Our focus now is to appropriately size the firm for the opportunities ahead of us in a challenging macroeconomic environment.”

The cuts are part of broader reductions across the banking industry as a possible global recession looms. At least 5,000 people are in the process of being cut from various banks. In addition to the 3,000 from Goldman, Morgan Stanley (MS.N) has cut about 2% of its workforce, or 1,600 people, a source said last month while HSBC (HSBA.L) is shedding at least 200, sources previously said.

Last year was challenging across groups including credit, equities, and investment banking broadly, said Paul Sorbera, president of Wall Street recruitment firm Alliance Consulting. “Many didn’t make budgets.”

“It’s just part of Wall Street,” Sorbera said. “We’re used to seeing layoffs.”

The latest cuts will reduce about 6% of Goldman’s headcount, which stood at 49,100 at the end of the third quarter.

[1/3] A trader works at the Goldman Sachs stall on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, April 16, 2012. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

The firm’s headcount had added more than 10,000 jobs since the coronavirus pandemic as markets boomed.

The reductions come as U.S. banking giants are forecast to report lower profits this week. Goldman Sachs is expected to report a net profit of $2.16 billion in the fourth-quarter, according to a mean forecast by analysts on Refinitiv Eikon, down 45% from $3.94 billion net profit in the same period a year earlier.

Shares of Goldman Sachs have partially recovered from a 10% fall last year. The stock closed up 1.99% on Wednesday, up around 6% year-to-date.

LAYOFFS AROUND GLOBE

Goldman’s layoffs began in Asia on Wednesday, where Goldman completed cutting back its private wealth management business and let go of 16 private banking staff across its Hong Kong, Singapore and China offices, a source with knowledge of the matter said.

About eight staff were also laid off in Goldman’s research department in Hong Kong, the source added, with layoffs ongoing in the investment banking and other divisions.

At Goldman’s central London hub, rainfall lessened the prospect of staff huddles. Several security personnel actively patrolled the building’s entrance, but few people were entering or leaving the property. A glimpse into the bank’s recreational area just beyond its lobby showed a handful of staffers in deep conversation but few signs of drama. Wine bars and eateries local to the office were also short of post-lunch trade, in stark contrast to large-scale layoffs of the past when unlucky staffers would typically gather to console one another and plan their next career moves.

In New York, employees were seen streaming into headquarters during the morning rush.

Goldman’s redundancy plans will be followed by a broader spending review of corporate travel and expenses, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, as the U.S. bank counts the costs of a massive slowdown in corporate dealmaking and a slump in capital markets activity since the war in Ukraine.

The company is also cutting its annual bonus payments this year to reflect depressed market conditions, with payouts expected to fall about 40%.

Reporting by Sinead Cruise and Iain Withers in London, Selena Li in Hong Kong, Scott Murdoch in Sydney and Saeed Azhar in New York; Editing by Josie Kao and Christopher Cushing

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Wall Street ends higher, Powell comments avoid rate policy

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  • Investors await CPI data Thursday
  • U.S. earnings season begins this week
  • Jefferies shares rise after results
  • Indexes: Dow up 0.6%, S&P 500 up 0.7%, Nasdaq up 1%

NEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) – U.S. stocks ended solidly higher on Tuesday, led by a 1% gain in the Nasdaq, on relief that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refrained in a speech from commenting on rate policy.

In his first public appearance of the year, Powell said at a forum sponsored by the Swedish central bank that the Fed’s independence is essential for it to battle inflation.

Recent comments by other Fed officials have supported the view that the central bank needs to remain aggressive in raising interest rates to control inflation. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday the bank will have to raise interest rates further to combat high inflation.

“Everybody hangs on every word from the Fed,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. Powell “didn’t really say anything” about policy, he added.

Investors anxiously awaited the U.S. consumer prices index report Thursday, which is expected to show some moderation in year-on-year prices in December.

Traders are betting on a 25-basis point rate hike at the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting in February.

“There are some indications that inflation is slowing significantly. What investors are really looking for is a gap down in major inflation data that could probably get the Fed’s attention,” Ghriskey said.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN.O) shares rose 2.9% and gave the Nasdaq and S&P 500 their biggest boosts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 186.45 points, or 0.56%, to 33,704.1; the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 27.16 points, or 0.70%, at 3,919.25; and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 106.98 points, or 1.01%, at 10,742.63.

Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

Shares of Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) rose 0.8%, a day after Semafor, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that the tech company was in talks to invest $10 billion in ChatGPT-owner OpenAI.

Communications services (.SPLRCL) was the day’s best-performing sector, while energy (.SPNY) rose along with oil prices.

This week marks the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season for S&P 500 companies, with results from several of Wall Street’s biggest banks due later this week.

Shares of investment bank Jefferies Financial Group (JEF.N) rose 3.8% on Tuesday, a day after it posted its second-best year for investment banking revenue. It also reported a 52.5% slump in fourth-quarter profit.

Analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to have declined 2.2% in the fourth quarter from a year ago, according to IBES data from Refinitiv, as worries about rising rates and the economy mounted.

Some investors are hoping for signs that the Fed may soon take a break after raising the federal funds rate seven times in 2022.

The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its 2023 growth forecasts on Tuesday to levels teetering on the brink of recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.02 billion shares, compared with the 10.91 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.33-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.45-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 30 new lows.

Additional reporting by Ankika Biswas, Amruta Khandekar and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli, Shounak Dasgupta and Richard Chang

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World

Macron, unions head for French pension reform showdown

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  • Retirement age set to be raised to 64 from 62
  • Unions, left-wing opposition reject the reform
  • Adoption in parliament depends on the right

PARIS, Jan 10 (Reuters) – The French should work two years longer to age 64 before retiring, the government said on Tuesday, announcing an unpopular pension system overhaul that immediately prompted unions to call for strikes and protests.

The right to retire at a relatively young age is deeply cherished in France and the reform will be a major test of President Emmanuel Macron’s ability to deliver change as social discontent mounts over the cost of living.

The reform’s passage through parliament will not be easy. Macron’s government says it is vital to keep the pension budget out of the red. Unions argue the reform is unfair and unnecessary.

“Nothing justifies such a brutal reform,” Laurent Berger, leader of the moderate, reform-minded CFDT union, told reporters after trade union leaders agreed on a nationwide strike for Jan. 19, which will kick off a series of strikes and protests.

An Odoxa poll showed four out of five citizens oppose the higher retirement age.

“I’m well aware that changing our pension system raises questions and fears among the French,” Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne had told a news conference shortly before.

“We offer today a project to balance our pension system, a project that is fair,” she said, adding that France had to face reality.

Overhauling the pension system was a central pillar of Macron’s reformist agenda when he entered the Elysee Palace in 2017. But he shelved his first attempt in 2020 as the government battled to contain COVID-19.

The second attempt will not be any easier.

“It’s one slap in the face after another,” said 56-year-old Frederic Perdriel during a small protest in the western city of Rennes ahead of Borne’s announcement. “There are other ways to finance pensions than raising the retirement age.”

“BRUTAL, CRUEL”

Macron and Borne will need to win support among conservative Les Republicains (LR) lawmakers in the coming months to pass the reform in parliament.

That looks less challenging than it did a few weeks ago after concessions on the retirement age – Macron had originally wanted it to be 65 – and a minimum pension.

Olivier Marleix, who leads the LR group in the lower house of parliament, reacted positively to Borne’s announcements.

“They heard us,” he said, while asking for more efforts to ensure employment for people close to retirement age.

Even so, LR is divided on the issue, so every vote counts.

The Socialists, the hard-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) and the far-right’s National Rally were swift to denounce the reform. Left-wing lawmaker Mathilde Panot branded the plan “archaic, unfair, brutal, cruel.”

“The French can count on our determination to block this unfair reform,” the far-right’s Marine Le Pen said.

Under the government plan, the retirement age will be raised by three months per year from September, reaching the target age of 64 in 2030.

From 2027, eight years earlier than planned in past reforms, it will be necessary to have worked 43 years to receive a full pension.

Other measures aim to boost the employment rate among 60 to 64-year-olds, which is one of the lowest among leading industrialised nations.

With one of the lowest retirement ages in the industrialised world, France also spends more than most countries on pensions at nearly 14% of economic output, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Reporting by Elizabeth Pineau, Leigh Thomas, Stephane Mahe, Tassilo Hummel, Blandine Henault; writing by Ingrid Melander; editing by Richard Lough, Alexandra Hudson and Josie Kao

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Business

Global shares retreat after Fed inflation nudge

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LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – Global shares fell for the first time in three days on Tuesday, after comments from two Federal Reserve officials injected a note of caution over the U.S. rate outlook, knocking equities, commodities and other risk assets.

The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.2%, but remained in sight of Monday’s three-week high, while the dollar – a gauge of investor risk appetite – edged up against a basket of major currencies.

In the past six weeks, China has dismantled its zero-COVID policy even as cases have surged around the country, which has given markets a bumpy ride as investors weighed up the economic benefits of reopening against the impact to activity from the wave of infections.

Adding to that has been a sense of optimism that inflation has peaked, especially in the United States, and, as such, the Fed will not have to raise rates as much as many had feared.

However, with consumer price pressures still well above the central bank’s target of 2%, two Fed officials on Monday issued a stark reminder that interest rates will have to keep rising, no matter what investors have priced in.

“The market is trying to get one step ahead of the Fed, but it’s not actually listening to what it’s saying. And the Fed is being quite clear with its message – that rates are going to push higher and they’re going to stay higher for longer,” CityIndex strategist Fiona Cincotta said.

“If we look at expectations of inflation later this week – the big focus – core inflation is still expected to remain high. It doesn’t matter which way you look at it. It’s still higher than the target the Fed is aiming for,” she said.

U.S. consumer price data, due on Thursday, is expected to show headline inflation slowed to 6.5% in December from 7.1% in November.

The data could be key to setting expectations for what happens with rates at the Fed’s next policy meeting and beyond.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Wall Street Journal she would pay close attention to Thursday’s data and both 25- and 50-basis point hikes were options for her. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said his “base case” was for no rate cuts this year or next.

“The main theme overnight was cautiousness in the equity space as stocks pared gains after hawkish comments from two Fed officials. Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly said the Fed would likely hike (interest) rates to above 5% and hold them there for some time,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses a conference on central bank independence later on Tuesday and investors will likely scour his remarks for any signal on monetary policy.

“Given that the recent rebound in equity markets and fall in bond yields and the US dollar is loosening financial conditions, today might offer an opportunity for Fed chairman Jay Powell to reset the narrative slightly,” CMC Markets chief strategist Michael Hewson said.

FRAGILE CHINA

In Europe, the STOXX 600 (.STOXX), which on Monday hit its highest in eight months, fell 0.7%, led by a decline in industrials. London’s FTSE 100 (.FTSE) lost 0.2%, while Frankfurt’s DAX (.GDAXI) fell 0.5%.

U.S. stock index futures , fell 0.3%, indicating Wall Street could open a touch lower after a volatile session the previous day.

The dollar carved out gains against the Australian dollar , which is highly sensitive to the Chinese economy and has gained 3.5% in the last three weeks alone, based on the optimism around reopening.

The Aussie was last down 0.5% at $0.6877, while the offshore yuan lost 0.1% against the dollar to trade around 6.7913. It reached its strongest level since mid-August the previous day.

The dollar index rose 0.2%. The euro was flat, while the pound fell 0.3%. The yen fell 0.1% against the dollar to 132.06, even after data showed a faster pick-up in Tokyo inflation that could prompt the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy more quickly.

Strategists at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, on Tuesday said they expected the Chinese economy to grow by 6% this year, which should cushion the global slowdown as recession hits developed-market economies. But any bounce may be fleeting.

“We don’t expect the level of economic activity in China to return to its pre-COVID trend, even as domestic activity restarts. We see growth falling back once the restart runs its course,” Wei Li, who is global chief investment strategist for the BlackRock Investment Institute, wrote in a note.

Copper eased back from six-month highs , as bullishness from China’s emergence from COVID-19 was offset by concern about the risks of a broader global downturn.

London Metal Exchange copper futures fell 0.5% to $8,813 a tonne, having hit their highest in over six months on Monday, while zinc fell 0.7% and lead dropped 2%.

Oil pared earlier losses, but concern persisted that China returning to more normal activity may not translate into a boom in energy demand.

“The social vitality of major Chinese cities is rapidly recovering, and the restart of China’s demand is worth looking forward to. However, considering that the recovery of consumption is still at the expected stage, the oil price will most likely remain low and range-bound,” analysts from Haitong Futures said.

Brent crude futures were last up 0.4% to $80.00 a barrel. The oil price is about 2.3% below where it was a year ago and 45% below the highs around $139 after Russia invaded Ukraine last February.

Additional reporting by Selena Li in Hong Kong; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Angus MacSwan and Chizu Nomiyama

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

U.S. banks get ready for shrinking profits and recession

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NEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) – U.S. banking giants are forecast to report lower fourth quarter profits this week as lenders stockpile rainy-day funds to prepare for an economic slowdown that is battering investment banking.

Four American banking giants — JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), Citigroup Inc (C.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) — will report earnings on Friday.

Along with Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N), they are the six largest lenders expected to amass a combined $5.7 billion in reserves to prepare for soured loans, according to average projections by Refinitiv. That is more than double the $2.37 billion set aside a year earlier.

“With most U.S. economists forecasting either a recession or significant slowdown this year, banks will likely incorporate a more severe economic outlook,” said Morgan Stanley analysts led by Betsy Graseck in a note.

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates aggressively in an effort to tame inflation near its highest in decades. Rising prices and higher borrowing costs have prompted consumers and businesses to curb their spending, and since banks serve as economic middlemen, their profits decline when activity slows.

The six banks are also expected to report an average 17% drop in net profit in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to preliminary analysts’ estimates from Refintiv.

Reuters Graphics

Still, lenders stand to gain from rising rates that allow them to earn more from the interest they charge borrowers.

Investors and analysts will focus on bank bosses’ commentary as an important gauge of the economic outlook. A parade of executives has warned in recent weeks of the tougher business environment, which has prompted firms to slash compensation or eliminate jobs.

Goldman Sachs will start laying off thousands of employees from Wednesday, two sources familiar with the move said Sunday. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, among others, have also cut jobs after a plunge in investment-banking activity.

The moves come after Wall Street dealmakers handling mergers, acquisitions and initial public offerings faced a sharp drop in their businesses in 2022 as rising interest rates roiled markets.

Global investment banking revenue sank to $15.3 billion in the fourth quarter, down more than 50% from a year-earlier quarter, according to data from Dealogic.

Consumer businesses will also be a key focus in banks’ results. Household accounts have been propped up for much of the pandemic by a strong job market and government stimulus, and while consumers are generally in good financial shape, more are starting to fall behind on payments.

“We’re exiting a period of extraordinarily strong credit quality,” said David Fanger, senior vice president, financial institutions group, at Moody’s Investors Service.

At Wells Fargo, the fallout from a fake accounts scandal and regulatory penalties will continue to weigh on results. The lender expected to book an expense of about $3.5 billion after it agreed to settle charges over widespread mismanagement of car loans, mortgages and bank accounts with the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the watchdog’s largest-ever civil penalty.

Analysts will also watch if banks such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America book any writedowns on the $13-billion loan to fund Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter.

More broadly, the KBW index (.BKX) of bank stocks is up about 4% this month after sinking almost 28% in the last year.

While market sentiment took a sharp turn from hopeful to fearful in 2022, some large banks could overcome the most dire predictions because they have shed risky activities, wrote Susan Roth Katzke, an analyst at Credit Suisse.

“We see more resilient earning power through the cycle after a decade of de-risking,” she wrote in a note. “We cannot dismiss the fundamental strength.”

Reporting by Saeed Azhar, Niket Nishant and Lananh Nguyen
Editing by Nick Zieminski

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Business

Tesla slashes car prices in China for second time in 3 months

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SHANGHAI, Jan 6 (Reuters) – Tesla (TSLA.O) cut car prices in China for the second time in less than three months on Friday, fuelling a price war amid a darkening demand outlook in the world’s largest auto market.

The latest cut, along with a reduction in October as well as various incentives that amount to as much as 10,000 yuan extended to Chinese buyers over the past three months, mean a 13% to 24% reduction in Tesla’s prices from September, according to Reuters calculations.

On Friday, the U.S. electric vehicles (EV) maker slashed prices for all versions of its Model 3 and Model Y cars in China by between 6% to 13.5%, according to Reuters calculations based on the prices shown on its website. The starting price for Model 3, for instance, was cut to 229,900 yuan ($33,427) from 265,900 yuan. It cut prices in Japan on the same day.

“Tesla’s price adjustments are backed by innumerous engineering innovations,” Grace Tao, Tesla’s vice president in charge of external communications in China, posted on her Weibo social media account on Friday. “(They) answer the government’s call to promote economic development and encourage consumption.”

The price cuts come after December deliveries of Tesla’s China-made cars hit their lowest in five months, and also just days after Beijing ended a subsidy programme that helped build the world’s largest EV market. Softening demand has forced Tesla and its rivals to absorb the brunt of that decision.

China Merchants Bank International (CMBI), which warned in July that China’s EV sector was headed for a price war, said Tesla’s price reduction affirmed the prediction, adding that the U.S. firm may have to do more, especially as competition with its Chinese rivals intensifies.

The Model 3 and Y have been the only models Tesla delivers in China, though on Friday it announced prices for the Model S and Model X in China.

“Tesla needs to further cut prices and expand its sales network in China’s lower-tier cities amid ageing models,” said CMBI analyst Shi Ji.

“We expect new EV production capacity in China to outpace new demand in 2023 and Tesla Shanghai’s capacity utilisation could drop to about or even below 80% this year if its Berlin plant ramps up.”

BYD (002594.SZ), which has a much larger variety of offerings that comprise both plug-in and pure electric vehicles, saw its retail sales in China double in December while Tesla’s fell 42%, according to data from CMBI.

Tesla did not offer any additional comment when contacted by Reuters. A spokesperson referred to Tao’s Weibo post.

The car maker’s discounts have brought the starting price of Model 3 to the same level of BYD’s best-selling Han EV sedan, which is sold from 219,800 yuan. The Chinese EV maker recently raised the prices for its best-selling models after losing the central government subsidies.

Sales of BYD’s Han series, including the plug-in hybrid versions, were more than double that of Model 3’s in China in the first 11 months, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

The China prices of the Model 3 and Model Y cars are now 24% to 32% lower than those in the United States, Tesla’s largest market, Reuters calculations showed, due to reasons including different material and labour costs.

Tesla also cut the prices of Model 3 and Model Y cars by about 10% each in Japan, the first time it had done so since 2021. The price for the Model 3 rear wheel drive version is now 5.369 million yen ($40,091), down from 5.964 million yen.

($1 = 6.8775 Chinese yuan)

($1 = 133.9200 yen)

Reporting by Zhang Yan and Brenda Goh; Editing by Kim Coghill and Muralikumar Anantharaman

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World

Taiwan to give cash payouts to citizens in ‘New Year blessing’

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TAIPEI, Jan 4 (Reuters) – Taiwan plans to give cash payouts of nearly $200 to every citizen this year, Premier Su Tseng-chang announced on Wednesday, saying the island’s economic growth will be shared by everyone.

The export-reliant economy, a global tech powerhouse for products including semiconductor chips, grew 6.45% in 2021, the fastest rate since it expanded 10.25% in 2010.

While economic growth is expected to slow in 2022 and 2023, the government has made plans to plough an extra T$380 billion ($12.4 billion) in tax revenue from last year back into the economy to help protect the island from global economic shocks, including subsidies for electricity prices and labour and health insurance.

Su said a total of T$140 billion, part of the tax revenue, would be spent as cash payouts and each citizen would get T$6,000 ($195.61).

“The fruit of economic achievements will be shared by all citizens, from young to old,” Su told reporters, adding the potential payout requires approval from parliament, where the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has a majority.

“We wish to give all citizens a New Year blessing after the beginning of the Lunar New Year,” Su told reporters, referring to the week-long holiday that starts on Jan. 20.

He did not give details of how the government would deliver the payouts.

Taiwan is a major producer of semiconductors used in everything from cars and smartphones to fighter jets. Its economy continued to grow stably during the COVID-19 pandemic in recent years helped by strong chip demand for consumer electronics as more people worked from home.

Taiwan’s central bank in December cut its 2022 estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.91% from its previous forecast of 3.51% in September.

For 2023, it projected GDP would grow 2.53%. The economy grew 4.01% in the third quarter from a year earlier.

$1 = 30.6740 Taiwan dollars)

Reporting By Yimou Lee and Jeanny Kao; Editing by Jacqueline Wong

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Dollar set for biggest one-day gain in three months, equities rally

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  • Global shares edge up
  • Correlation with dollar softens
  • Yen takes a breather from recent rally

LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) – The dollar headed for its largest one-day rise in over three months on Tuesday, while equities rallied in a macro-packed week that could offer a steer on when, and at what level, U.S. interest rates might peak.

The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) was roughly unchanged, although European stocks, led by hefty gains in anything from financials, to oil and gas stocks, to healthcare, bounced to two-week highs.

Typically, stocks tend to fall when the dollar gains, but that negative correlation between the two softened on Tuesday to its weakest since early September. The dollar index was last up 1% at 104.69.

The euro was the worst-performing currency against the dollar , falling by the most since late September, after German regional inflation data showed consumer price pressures eased sharply in December, thanks in large part to government measures to contain natural gas bills for households and businesses.

Data on U.S. payrolls this week are expected to show the labour market remains tight, while EU consumer prices could show some slowdown in inflation as energy prices ease.

“Energy base effects will bring about a sizeable reduction in inflation in the major economies in 2023, but stickiness in core components, much of this stemming from tight labour markets, will prevent an early dovish policy ‘pivot’ by central banks,” analysts at NatWest Markets wrote in a note.

They expect interest rates to top out at 5% in the United States, 2.25% in the EU and 4.5% in Britain and to stay there for the entire year. Markets, on the other hand, are pricing in rate cuts for late 2023, with fed fund futures implying a range of 4.25 to 4.5% by December.

“The thing that makes me nervous about this year is that we still do not know the full impact of the very significant monetary tightening that’s taken place across the advanced world,” Berenberg senior economist Kallum Pickering said.

“It takes a good year, or 18 months, for the full effect to kick in,” he said.

Central banks have expressed concern about rising wages, even as consumers have struggled to keep up with the soaring cost of living and companies are running out of room to protect their profitability by raising their own prices.

But, Pickering said, the labour market tends to lag the broader economy by some time, meaning that there is a risk that central banks could be raising interest rates by more than the economy can withstand.

“What central banks are inducing is essentially excess cyclicality, which is – they overstimulated in 2021 and triggered an inflationary boom and then overtightened in 2022 and triggered a disinflationary recession. It’s exactly the opposite of what you want central banks to do,” he said.

Investors will get their first insight into central bank thinking later this week when the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its December policy meeting.

The minutes will likely show many members saw risks that interest rates would need to go higher for longer, but investors are conscious of how much they’ve risen already.

On the markets, European shares rose thanks to gains in classic defensive sectors, such as healthcare and food and beverages. Drugmakers Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO), Astrazeneca (AZN.L) and Roche (ROG.S) were among the biggest positive weights on the STOXX 600 (.STOXX), along with Nestle (NESN.S)

The STOXX, which lost 13% in 2022, rose 1.1%. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE), the only major European index not to trade on Monday, rose 1.3%.

U.S. stock index futures gained between 0.4-0.5% , , pointing to an upbeat start at the opening bell.

Markets have for a while priced in an eventual U.S. easing, but they were badly wrong-footed by the Bank of Japan’s shock upward shift in its ceiling for bond yields.

The BOJ is now considering raising its inflation forecasts in January to show price growth close to its 2% target in fiscal 2023 and 2024, according to the Nikkei.

Such a move at its next policy meeting on Jan. 17-18 would only add to speculation of an end to ultra-loose policy, which has essentially acted as a floor for bond yields globally.

The policy shift has boosted the yen across the board, with the dollar losing 5% in December and the euro 2.3%.

The yen took a breather on Tuesday, easing 0.3% against the dollar to 130.96. The dollar earlier touched a six-month low of 129.52 yen . Against the dollar, the euro fell 1.1% to $1.05395, having dropped by as much as 1.4% earlier in the day.

“A theme we’ve often noticed is the euro’s negative seasonality in January, down around 1.3% since 1980 on average in January, with a 64% hit ratio. If history is any guide, it’s a rough month for euro longs,” Nomura strategist Jordan Rochester said.

Oil succumbed to the strength of the dollar, and reversed course, falling as concern about demand in China, the world’s second largest economy, added to the downward momentum.

A batch of surveys have shownChina’s factory activity shrank at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as COVID infections swept through production lines.

“China is entering the most dangerous weeks of the pandemic,” warned analysts at Capital Economics.

Brent crude lost 0.9% to trade around $85.15 a barrel, having hit a session high of $87.00 earlier on.

Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Bradley Perrett, Sam Holmes and Chizu Nomiyama

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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World

China state media plays down COVID wave severity before WHO meet

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  • State media says severe illness from COVID is rare
  • Chinese scientists expected to brief WHO
  • China factory activity shrinks in December

BEIJING, Jan 3 (Reuters) – China’s state media played down the severity on Tuesday of the COVID-19 wave surging over the country, with its scientists expected to give a briefing to the World Health Organization on the evolution of the virus later in the day.

China’s abrupt U-turn on COVID controls on Dec. 7, as well as the accuracy of its case and mortality data, have come under increasing scrutiny at home and overseas and prompted some countries to impose travel curbs.

The policy shift followed protests over the “zero COVID” approach championed by President Xi Jinping, marking the strongest show of public defiance in his decade-old presidency and coinciding with the slowest growth in China in nearly half a century.

As the virus spreads unchecked, funeral parlours report a spike in demand for their services and international health experts predict at least one million deaths in the world’s most populous country this year.

China reported three new COVID deaths for Monday, up from one for Sunday. Its official death toll since the pandemic began now stands at 5,253.

In an article on Tuesday, People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party, cited several Chinese experts as saying the illness caused by the virus was relatively mild for most people.

“Severe and critical illnesses account for 3% to 4% of infected patients currently admitted to designated hospitals in Beijing,” Tong Zhaohui, Vice President of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, told the newspaper.

Kang Yan, head of West China Tianfu Hospital of Sichuan University, said that in the past three weeks, a total of 46 critically ill patients have been admitted to intensive care units, accounting for about 1% of symptomatic infections.

More than 80% of those living in the southwestern Sichuan province have been infected, local health authorities said.

The World Health Organization on Friday urged China’s health officials to regularly share specific and real-time information on the COVID situation.

The agency has invited Chinese scientists to present detailed data on viral sequencing at a meeting of a technical advisory group scheduled for Tuesday. It has also asked China to share data on hospitalizations, deaths and vaccinations.

The European Union has offered free COVID vaccines to China to help contain the outbreak, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

EU government health officials will hold talks on Wednesday on a coordinated response to China’s outbreak, the Swedish EU presidency said on Monday.

The United States, France, Australia, India and others will require mandatory COVID tests on travellers from China, while Belgium said it will test wastewater from planes from China for new COVID variants.

China has rejected criticism of its COVID data and said any new mutations may be more infectious but less harmful.

“According to the political logic of some people in Europe and the United States, whether China opens or does not open is equally the wrong thing to do,” state-run CCTV said in a commentary late on Monday.

ECONOMIC CONCERNS

As Chinese workers and shoppers are falling ill, concerns mount about growth prospects in the world’s second-largest economy, weighing on Asian stocks.

Data on Tuesday showed China’s factory activity shrank at a sharper pace in December as the COVID wave disrupted production and hurt demand.

December shipments from Foxconn’s (2317.TW) Zhengzhou iPhone plant, disrupted late last year by a COVID outbreak that prompted worker departures and unrest, were 90% of the firm’s initial plans, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A “bushfire” of infections in China in coming months is likely to hurt its economy this year and drag on global growth, said the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva.

“China is entering the most dangerous weeks of the pandemic,” warned analysts at Capital Economics.

“The authorities are making almost no efforts now to slow the spread of infections and, with the migration ahead of Lunar New Year getting started, any parts of the country not currently in a major COVID wave will be soon.”

Mobility data suggested that economic activity was depressed nationwide and would likely remain so until the infection wave began to subside, they added.

China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism said the domestic tourism market saw 52.71 million trips during the New Year holiday, flat year-on-year and only 43% of the 2019 levels, before the pandemic.

The revenue generated was over 26.52 billion yuan ($3.84 billion), up 4% year-on-year but only about 35% of the revenue created in 2019, the ministry said.

Expectations are higher for China’s biggest holiday, the Lunar New Year, later this month, when some experts expect daily COVID cases to have already peaked in many parts of the country. Some hotels in the southern tourist resort of Sanya are fully booked for the period, Chinese media reported.

Reporting by Beijing and Shanghai bureaus; Writing by Marius Zaharia; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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World

Xi says COVID control is entering new phase as cases surge after reopening

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  • China overcame unprecedented difficulties in COVID battle: Xi
  • Still a time of struggle for controlling COVID: Xi
  • In Wuhan, surge in new cases shows signs of easing
  • Shanghai has 10 million infections, health official says
  • End of zero-COVID curbs prompts global concern

WUHAN/BEIJING, Dec 31 (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping called on Saturday for more effort and unity as the country enters a “new phase” in its approach to combating the pandemic, in his first comments to the public on COVID-19 since his government changed course three weeks ago and relaxed its rigorous policy of lockdowns and mass testing.

China’s abrupt switch earlier this month from the “zero-COVID” policy that it had maintained for nearly three years has led to infections sweeping across the country unchecked. It has also caused a further drop in economic activity and international concern, with Britain and France becoming the latest countries to impose curbs on travellers from China.

The switch by China followed unprecedented protests over the policy championed by Xi, marking the strongest show of public defiance in his decade-old presidency and coinciding with grim growth figures for the country’s $17 trillion economy.

In a televised speech to mark the New Year, Xi said China had overcome unprecedented difficulties and challenges in the battle against COVID, and that its policies were “optimised” when the situation and time so required.

“Since the outbreak of the epidemic … the majority of cadres and masses, especially medical personnel, grassroots workers braved hardships and courageously persevered,” Xi said.

“At present, the epidemic prevention and control is entering a new phase, it is still a time of struggle, everyone is persevering and working hard, and the dawn is ahead. Let’s work harder, persistence means victory, and unity means victory.”

New Year’s Eve prompted reflection online and by residents of Wuhan, the epicentre of the COVID outbreak nearly three years ago, about the zero-COVID policy and the impact of its reversal.

People in the central city of Wuhan expressed hope that normal life would return in 2023 despite a surge in cases since pandemic curbs were lifted.

Wuhan resident Chen Mei, 45, said she hoped her teenage daughter would see no further disruptions to her schooling.

“When she can’t go to the school and can only have classes online it’s definitely not an effective way of learning,” she said.

VIDEO REMOVED

Across the country, many people voiced similar hopes on social media, while others were critical.

Thousands of users on China’s Twitter-like Weibo criticised the removal of a video made by local outlet Netease News that collated real-life stories from 2022 that had captivated the Chinese public.

Many of the stories included in the video, which by Saturday could not be seen or shared on domestic social media platforms, highlighted the difficulties ordinary Chinese faced as a result of the previously strict COVID policy.

Weibo and Netease did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

One Weibo hashtag about the video garnered almost 4 million hits before it disappeared from platforms at about noon on Saturday. Social media users created new hashtags to keep the comments pouring in.

“What a perverse world, you can only sing the praises of the fake but you cannot show real life,” one user wrote, attaching a screenshot of a blank page that is displayed when searching for the hashtags.

The disappearance of the videos and hashtags, seen by many as an act of censorship, suggests the Chinese government still sees the narrative surrounding its handling of the disease as a politically sensitive issue.

HOSPITALS OVERWHELMED

The wave of new infections has overwhelmed hospitals and funeral homes across the country, with lines of hearses outside crematoriums fuelling public concern.

China, a country of 1.4 billion people, reported one new COVID death for Friday, the same as the day before – numbers that do not match the experience of other countries after they reopened.

UK-based health data firm Airfinity said on Thursday that about 9,000 people in China were probably dying each day from COVID. Cumulative deaths in China since Dec. 1 have likely reached 100,000, with infections totalling 18.6 million, it said.

Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases, told the People’s Daily in an interview published on Saturday that Shanghai had reached a peak of infections on Dec. 22, saying there were currently about 10 million cases.

He said those numbers indicated that some 50,000 people in the city of 25 million would need to be hospitalized in the next few weeks.

At the central hospital of Wuhan, where former COVID whistleblower Li Wenliang worked and later died of the virus in early 2020, patient numbers were down on Saturday compared with the rush of the past few weeks, a worker outside the hospital’s fever clinic told Reuters.

“This wave is almost over,” said the worker, who was wearing a hazmat suit.

A pharmacist whose store is next to the hospital said most people in the city had now been infected and recovered.

“It is mainly old people who are getting sick with it now,” he said.

In the first indication of the toll on China’s giant manufacturing sector from the change in COVID policy, data on Saturday showed factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December and at the sharpest pace in nearly three years.

Reporting by Martin Quinn Pollard, Tingshu Wang and Xiaoyu Yin in Wuhan, Eduardo Baptista in Beijing; Writing by Sumeet Chatterjee
Editing by Helen Popper and Frances Kerry

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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