Tag Archives: Dollar General Corp

U.S. stock futures rise after Dow, S&P 500 break three-day slide

U.S. stock futures were higher Thursday morning after all three major averages ended higher during the daily trading session.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 220 points, or 0.67%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.88% and 0.97%, respectively. Shares of Nvidia slid more than 2% on the heels of a quarterly report that missed Wall Street’s expectations. Salesforce fell more than 4% after the company provided a disappointing forecast for fiscal 2023. Snowflake jumped 16% after posting a beat on revenue.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 59.64 points, or 0.18%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.29% Wednesday. For both averages, the gains snapped three-day long losing streaks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also ticked up 0.41%.

The market action occurs as investors await the start of the Jackson Hole economic symposium, which begins Thursday with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak the following morning. Traders will be listening for more information about how the central bank will combat high inflation and if policymakers may cut rates when the current hiking cycle is over.

“It’s steady as it goes, it’s way too early for the Fed to consider a pivot,” said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, on CNBC’s “Fast Money.”

Investors are also waiting for key economic reports scheduled to come out later in the week, including jobless claims Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures Friday. The PCE report is one of the Fed’s favorite inflation measures, and it could influence its actions going forward.

Peloton reports quarterly earnings Thursday before the bell, along with Gap, Dollar Tree and Dollar General. Ulta Beauty, Workday and Affirm Holdings will release their own results after markets close Thursday.

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U.S. stock futures are flat after Dow, S&P 500 break three-day slide

U.S. stock futures were flat on Wednesday night after all three major averages ended higher during the daily trading session.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures shed 7 points, or 0.02%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.11% and 0.09%, respectively. Shares of Nvidia slid more than 2% on the heels of a quarterly report that missed Wall Street’s expectations. Salesforce fell more than 4% after the company provided a disappointing forecast for fiscal 2023. Snowflake jumped 16% after posting a beat on revenue.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 59.64 points, or 0.18%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.29% Wednesday. For both averages, the gains snapped three-day long losing streaks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also ticked up 0.41%.

The market action occurs as investors await the start of the Jackson Hole economic symposium, which begins Thursday with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak the following morning. Traders will be listening for more information about how the central bank will combat high inflation and if policymakers may cut rates when the current hiking cycle is over.

“It’s steady as it goes, it’s way too early for the Fed to consider a pivot,” said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, on CNBC’s “Fast Money.”

Investors are also waiting for key economic reports scheduled to come out later in the week, including jobless claims Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures Friday. The PCE report is one of the Fed’s favorite inflation measures, and it could influence its actions going forward.

Peloton reports quarterly earnings Thursday before the bell, along with Gap, Dollar Tree and Dollar General. Ulta Beauty, Workday and Affirm Holdings will release their own results after markets close Thursday.

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This week is all about Powell, but don’t overlook any great earnings reports

Wall Street is collectively bracing for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later this week, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday after the major U.S. stock indexes tumbled.

Powell’s address — set for 10 a.m. ET Friday as part of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium — is by far the biggest event on the calendar, according to the “Mad Money” host. The reason is investors are trying to gauge how hawkish the U.S. central bank may be in the coming months, and the Fed chief’s commentary is expected to offer clues on the matter.

While Friday’s speech is highly important to the market, Cramer stressed that he’s not ignoring corporate earnings and the economic insights they offer. He said reports last week from the likes of Cisco Systems and Target have been far better than feared, and he’s keeping his eye on many more this week.

Here is what Cramer is watching, with all earnings and revenue estimates compiled by FactSet:

Tuesday: Macy’s, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Toll Brothers and Intuit

Macy’s

  • Q2 earnings before the bell; conference call scheduled for 8 a.m. ET Tuesday
  • Projected EPS: 86 cents
  • Projected sales: $5.49 billion

Dick’s Sporting Goods

  • Q2 earnings before the open; conference call scheduled for 10 a.m. ET Tuesday
  • Projected EPS: $3.59
  • Projected revenue: $3.07 billion

Toll Brothers

  • Q3 earnings release after the close; conference call set for 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday
  • Projected EPS: $2.30
  • Projected revenue: $2.51 billion

“I bet Macy’s has a decent story to tell about the right clothes at the right time. Dick’s is selling all the best sporting goods at good prices, and Toll Brothers is only making homes that it can reap huge profits on. All three should have gotten much better on that supply chain front, too, versus when they spoke last,” Cramer said.

Intuit

  • Q4 earnings release after the close; conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET Tuesday
  • Projected EPS: 98 cents
  • Projected sales $2.34 billion

Cramer said he’s expecting a “terrific quarter” from Intuit, driven by “good growth in tax returns and also all the things they do for small business.”

Wednesday: Nvidia, Salesforce, Snowflake, Splunk and Box

Nvidia

  • Q2 earnings after the bell; conference call slated for 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 50 cents
  • Projected sales: $6.7 billion

Salesforce

  • Q2 earnings after the close; conference call set for 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.03
  • Projected revenue: $7.69 billion

“Nvidia preannounced and missed not that long ago versus an already-lowered forecast. The same thing could happen again — rough time for these chips,” said Cramer, whose Charitable Trust owns both Nvidia and Salesforce shares. “I think Salesforce will complain about the strong dollar again, but don’t forget that it does a ton of business at Dreamforce and that conference is back in person this September.”

Snowflake

  • Q2 2023 earnings release after the close; conference call set for 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 7 cents
  • Projected revenue: $721 million

Splunk

  • Q2 2023 earnings after the bell; conference call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: loss of 36 cents
  • Projected sales: $749 million

Box

  • Q2 2023 earnings after the close; conference call set for 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 27 cents
  • Projected revenue: $245 million

“There are lots of other software companies reporting that people are worried about, like Snowflake, Splunk and Box. I think they’re doing fine, but it just might not matter because of this general malaise” in the market, Cramer said.

Thursday: Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Ulta Beauty, Gap, Affirm, Dell and Workday

Dollar General

  • Q2 earnings before the open; conference call set for 10 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $2.94
  • Projected sales: $9.4 billion

Dollar Tree

  • Q2 earnings before the bell; conference call slated for 9 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.60
  • Projected revenue: $6.79 billion

Dollar General and Dollar Tree should “please the market to no end because investors have decided that we’re headed into a recession and the hedge fund playbook says you have to own one or both of these two stocks” in that situation, Cramer said. “I don’t like mindlessly following the playbook, but it’s not wrong here. My preferred one, by the way, is Dollar General if they have the merchandise.”

Ulta Beauty

  • Q2 earnings release after the close; conference call set for 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $4.95
  • Projected sales: $2.21 billion

“Both Estee Lauder and Target, which has embedded Ultas [in some stores], raved about how the chain’s doing. I think now we’re in a mask-off world, which is great for skin care. Ulta will shine,” Cramer said.

Gap Inc.

  • Q2 earnings after the bell; conference call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: Loss of 5 cents
  • Projected sales: $3.82 billion

Affirm

  • Q4 earnings after the close; conference call set for 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: Loss of 62 cents
  • Projected revenue: $355 million

Dell Technologies

  • Q2 2023 earnings release after the bell; conference call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.79
  • Projected sales: $26.87 billion

Gap, Affirm and Dell all fall into what Cramer called the “troublesome” reports category for their own reasons.

“Gap could have still one more difficult quarter,” he said. “I’m not sure how good Affirm will be given how the market has turned against buy now, pay later. I think CEO Max Levchin will try to spin a good yarn, but it’s an awfully hard tape to pull that off in. Then there’s Dell. I bet it’s gonna report a solid number that will actually help tech, something we very well need by the time we get to [Thursday].”

Workday

  • Q2 2023 earnings after the close; conference call set for 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 79 cents
  • Projected sales: $1.52 billion

“I think Workday had a good quarter, and maybe because it’s on the eve of Jackson Hole, it will be as irrelevant as [Monday’s] sell-off,” Cramer said.

Friday: Powell speech

“Wall Street is starting to have less confidence in the idea that the Fed will soon pivot to a more dovish posture. I think Jay Powell can afford to be a little less ruthless with the rate hikes here, but the market clearly disagrees,” Cramer said. “We’ll find out who’s right on Friday — we need to slog through the whole week to get to the Fed’s guillotine. But even if the guillotine blade falls, we can ride through the turbulence and do some buying on the way down after this incredibly difficult two-day sell-off.”

Disclosure: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of NVDA, CRM and CSCO.

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My take on Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google after Nvidia’s rise

FAANG stocks displayed at the Nasdaq.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

It’s been a great week for the portfolio. Ahead of the long holiday weekend, I know the buzz centers on Nvidia (NVDA) and how this great $465 billion company signaled a sea change when it reported a solid quarter, cut guidance — and shares rallied. That was directly contrary to the pattern before it.

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3 takeaways from Dollar General, Dollar Tree earnings that sent stocks soaring

Dollar General and Dollar Tree stores

Getty Images

Shares of Dollar General and Dollar Tree popped Thursday, as the discounters beat Wall Street’s quarterly earnings expectations, raised outlooks for the coming year and spoke of consumers flocking to lower prices during inflationary times.

As of midday Thursday, shares of Dollar General were up about 14% and Dollar Tree were up about 20%.

The two retailers said they see opportunity to grow as Americans weigh value more heavily in their purchasing decisions, whether buying groceries or seasonal decor.

“We’re already starting to see our core customers start to shop more intentionally,” Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos said on a call with analysts. And we’re starting to see that next tier of customers start to shop with us a little bit more as well.”  

Dollar Tree Executive Chair Rick Dreiling listed the many challenges that consumers are facing, from the highest levels of inflation since the early 1980s to record high gas prices and uncertainty from current events such as the Ukraine war and the pandemic. He added that many consumers “are living paycheck to paycheck.”

“In tough times, value retail can be part of the solution to help families stretch their dollars to meet their evolving needs,” he said.

Dollar General and Dollar Tree beat expectations on fiscal first quarter earnings, revenue and same-store sales.

Dollar Tree, which includes the Family Dollar banner, said it now expects net sales for the year to range from $27.76 billion to $28.14 billion compared with its previous expectations between $27.22 billion to $27.85 billion. 

Dollar General said it expects net sales growth of about 10% to 10.5% compared with its previous expectation of about 10%. It raised its same-store sales forecast to growth of approximately 3% to 3.5% compared with its previous expectation of 2.5%.

Here are three major takeaways from the two discounters fiscal first-quarter earnings reports:

A different merchandise mix

Shoppers are still coming to stores, but are buying different items. Food is a bigger part of baskets and drove sales for Dollar General and Dollar Tree in the fiscal first quarter.

A year ago, consumers had extra dollars from stimulus checks and child tax credits. That meant some sprang for impulse items or discretionary purchases. Those dollars have disappeared and other budget items, such as groceries and gas, have become pricier.

Vasos said same-store sales at Dollar General dropped in each of the seasonal, apparel and home products categories in the fiscal first quarter, but more consumables sold. Overall, same-store sales dropped 0.1% versus the year-ago period, besting the 1.3% decline anticipated by analysts, according to FactSet.

At Dollar Tree, carbonated beverages, salty snacks and cookies were some of the items that surged in popularity — especially as the retailer expanded its food and beverage assortment. The company is the parent of Family Dollar, a banner that skews more heavily to food compared with the namesake banner.

“We believe that’s a traffic driver and as the customers experience the items and appreciate the value we’re giving them, over time we believe that that will help drive traffic into the overall store, not just those categories,” Dollar Tree CEO Michael Witynski told analysts.

Sales patterns at the companies echoed those at Walmart and Target, two companies that also saw a shift toward groceries and away from general merchandise in the fiscal first quarter.

Seizing the moment

Even before inflation jumped to a four-decade high, Dollar Tree and Dollar General had plans for larger store footprints, expansion into new categories and strategies to woo more customers. The retailers doubled down on that on Thursday — saying the challenged economic backdrop makes the time right and the offerings more compelling.

Dollar General, which has more than 18,000 stores, will open 1,100 new locations this year. It will expand its new store concept, PopShelf, and press ahead with the addition of more health-related merchandise. And it will go global by opening up to 10 stores in Mexico by the end of this year.

The company is going bigger with its stores, too. About 800 of the new locations will be its larger format of 8,500 square feet, with extra aisles for health and beauty items and coolers that hold produce or other groceries, Chief Financial Officer John Garratt told analysts on the call.

Dollar General is adding more end caps and displays that emphasize its cheaper private label and its $1 items, Vasos said. He said the company has “seen an acceleration in our private brand business” in recent weeks.

Dollar Tree, which includes more than 15,500 stores, is opening 590 stores this year. It is adding a larger range of goods by raising the price of $1 items to $1.25 and adding merchandise with a $3 and $5 price tag. And it has brought in new executives to turn around its Family Dollar banner.

Managing higher costs

Dollar Tree and Dollar General weren’t immune to higher costs in the first quarter, and some investors have raised concerns about whether they can keep prices low without hurting profits.

So far, the retailers have managed to beat Wall Street’s earnings expectations despite higher prices of fuel, freight and more. That’s something that Walmart and Target did not do.

Vasos said Dollar General can trade to other items or trade down in sizes if particular goods rise in price. He said the company is closely managing inventory to avoid a high level of markdowns and excess items that don’t sell.

Dollar General has a few other cost-saving and profit-driving measures underway, too. It added self-checkout to more than 8,000 stores as of the end of the first quarter. It plans to turn about 200 stores into self-checkout only this year. It is more than doubling its private fleet of trucks from 2021, so they account for about 40% of its outbound transportation fleet by the end of the year. And it is carrying more health care products, such as cough and cold medication, which have better margins than food.

At Dollar Tree, a price hike has been a big boost for profitability. The retailer announced last year that it would raise the price of dollar items by a quarter. It is rolling out $3 and $5 items to more stores, too.

Witynski said that wider range of price points means new sales opportunities in key seasons, such as the holidays. He said Dollar General had strong sales around Easter and Valentine’s Day and anticipates a similar dynamic in the back half of the year with back-to-school, Halloween and the holiday season.

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Twitter, Macy’s, Nvidia, Lululemon and more

A Lululemon sign hangs in front of their store at the Woodbury Commons Premium Outlets shopping mall on November 17, 2019 in Central Valley, New York.

Gary Hershorn | Corbis News | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading Thursday.

Macy’s — Shares jumped 17.8% after the department store chain reported better-than-expected quarterly results and raised its profit guidance. Macy’s got a boost from shoppers who are snapping up apparel and other goods regardless of rising prices.

Twitter — Twitter shares jumped more than 5% after Elon Musk increased his commitment in his takeover bid to $33.5 billion. Analysts have said the move indicates a new seriousness by the Tesla CEO and increased probability that he’ll complete the deal, which has been mired in controversy since Musk proposed it in May.

Lululemon — Shares of the athleisure company jumped 10.8% after Morgan Stanley upgraded Lululemon to overweight and said its well-positioned to perform well, even as a recession looms.

Nvidia — The chipmaker’s stock gained 5.6% after falling earlier in the session. It came as Nvidia issued weaker-than-expected guidance for the current quarter and said it plans to slow hiring.

Broadcom — Broadcom’s stock gained 4.2% after the semiconductor company shared its plan to buy VMware in a $61 billion cash and stock deal. The acquisition would mark one of the largest technology deals in history.

Dollar Tree — The discount retailer soared 22.3% after posting quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analyst expectations. Dollar Tree reported earnings per share of $2.37 on revenues of $6.9 billion. Analysts anticipated earnings of $2.00 a share on $6.76 billion in revenue, according to Refinitiv.

Kraft Heinz — The food and beverage company fell 6.2% after UBS downgraded the stock of fears of rising inflation and competition from private labels.

Alibaba — Alibaba shares surged 14.8% following the release of better-than-expected results for the previous quarter. The Chinese e-commerce giant reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of CNY7.95 per share, excluding items, on revenues of CNY204.05 billion. Analysts had anticipated earnings of CNY7.31 a share on CNY199.25 billion in revenue, according to StreetAccount.

Dollar General – The discount retailer’s shares rallied more than 14% on the back of stronger-than-forecast quarterly figures. Dollar General posted first-quarter earnings of $2.41 per share on revenue of $8.75 billion. Analysts had expected a profit of $2.31 per share on revenue of $8.7 billion, according to the Refinitiv consensus.

Williams-Sonoma — The home furnishing retailer bounced 14.1% following a beat on revenue and earnings for the previous quarter. Williams-Sonoma also reiterated its guidance for the year.

Nutanix — The cloud company tumbled 21.9% after issuing weak guidance. Nutanix also said it’s facing supply chain issues that have hit hardware partners.

Medtronic – Shares of the medical device fell more than 4% after a weaker-than-expected report for the fiscal fourth quarter. Medtronic reported $1.52 in adjusted earnings per share on $8.09 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting $1.56 per share and $8.43 billion in revenue. Medtronic said supply chain issues weighed on results for the quarter.

— CNBC’s Tanaya Macheel, Hannah Miao, Sarah Min and Jesse Pound contributed reporting

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Dollar General to open 1,000 Popshelf stores, aimed at wealthier shoppers

Dollar General debuted a new store called Popshelf about a year ago, aimed at wealthier, suburban shoppers who enjoy the hunt for a good deal.

The Tennessee-based discounter said Thursday that it now plans to have approximately 1,000 of the stores by the end of the 2025 fiscal year — including about 100 more locations that will open next fiscal year. It has 30 Popshelf stores in six states as of Oct. 29. It plans to open its first stores in Texas in the early spring.

News of the ambitious expansion plan comes as the retailer also plans to try out its first international market by opening 10 stores in Mexico by the end of fiscal 2022. Dollar General said it plans to open 1,110 new stores in the coming fiscal year, including Popshelf, Dollar General and the international locations.

Dollar General Chief Merchandising Officer Emily Taylor said in an interview that the retailer is speeding up expansion plans for the new store concept because of its popularity with customers. She said its average basket size and value is higher than at Dollar General’s namesake stores, though she declined to share numbers.

For the dollar store chain, Popshelf is a way to attract new customers and drive up profits. Its target customers are women who live in suburban areas and have an annual household income that ranges from $50,000 to $125,000, the company said. The stores are roughly 9,000 square feet and carry items such as home goods, seasonal decor and party supplies, including items from Dollar General’s private brands. Over 90% of the merchandise sold by Popshelf costs $5 or less, the company said.

Dollar General customers tend to live in rural areas, have a tighter budget and skew slightly older, Taylor said. Its customers have an annual household income of $40,000 or less. Sales at the dollar stores also have a heavier mix of grocery and snack items, which tend to be less profitable for the retailer.

Dollar General has more than 18,000 stores across 46 states. To drive growth, the retailer has been opening additional locations at a rapid clip. It is also adding fresh fruits and vegetables to more of its stores and expanding into health care. It hired its first chief medical officer in July.

Taylor said the idea of Popshelf was born as Dollar General worked on its nonconsumables initiative, a companywide effort to expand its store assortment to include more items such as home decor and party supplies, which began in 2018. She said the company saw an opening for a different store.

“We realized a standalone concept had a lot of merit, particularly as it related to providing a really exciting, joyful, engaging shopping experience in the small-box store,” she said.

That inspired Popshelf’s emphasis on colorful displays and frequent merchandise changes to make visits to stores feel like a “treasure hunt,” whether shoppers are looking for a gift, preparing for a party or decorating for the holidays, she said.

Depending on the time of year, its mix of goods includes toys, throw pillows, Christmas ornaments, pumpkin-shaped disposable paper plates, balloons, bath bombs and specialty food items such as hot cocoa and cheeses for a charcuterie board.

Home goods, in particular, has been a hot category, including decor and organizational items, Taylor said.

She said Popshelf stores offer customers an option to buy online and pick up in the store. She said the company will likely start shipping purchases to customers’ homes, too, so that people who don’t live near a Popshelf store can buy the products. She said it has gotten a lot of requests for that on social media.

Dollar General is also testing a store-within-a-store format. It has opened 14 smaller versions of Popshelf inside DG Markets, a format of Dollar General that is larger and has a wider selection of groceries, and it will add more.

Dollar General reported its fiscal third-quarter earnings on Thursday before the bell. It exceeded analysts’ expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.08 on revenue of $8.52 billion. On average, analysts were expecting Dollar General to earn $2.01 per share on revenue of $8.50 billion, according to Refinitiv.

As of Wednesday’s close, its shares are up nearly 6% this year. The stock closed Wednesday at $222.79, bringing its market value to $51.98 billion.

The dollar store chain faces new challenges, as inflation weighs on profits. Its chief competitor, Dollar Tree, said last week that it would start selling most goods for $1.25 rather than $1 to cover rising freight costs.

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Baby boom ahead, Bank of America says. That’s good news for these stocks

A woman wears a face mask while shopping for a baby shower gift during the Covid-19 pandemic, at Madison’s Niche boutique in Huntington, New York on April 21, 2021.

Alejandra Villa Loarca | Newsday | Getty Images

A millennial-fueled baby boom appears on its way and could lift sales for retailers, including Target, Walmart and Costco, according to a note published Tuesday by Bank of America.

Birth rates are up, more pregnancy tests are being sold, and more couples say they are trying to have a baby, the company’s research shows.

That could spell good news for grocers, big-box stores and warehouse clubs that sell diapers, strollers and other baby merchandise — or are simply located closer to suburban homes where new parents may settle, according to Robby Ohmes, a equity research analyst. He predicted the baby boom could start this year. Among the beneficiaries, he called out Albertsons, Kroger, Dollar General and BJ’s Wholesale Club.

Millennials have surpassed baby boomers to become the largest generation in the country, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The group — made up of roughly 72.1 million people — ranges in age from 25 to 40, according to the Pew Research Center.

One of the leading indicators of the potential “millennial baby boom” is elevated sales of pregnancy tests. Sales of pregnancy tests have grown by an average of 13% year over year since June 2020, according to data from Nielsen and research by Bank of America. This compares with an average of up 2% year over year from 2016 to 2019.

If this plays out, it would reverse a decline in births during the pandemic. Live births increased 3.3% in June 2021, the highest level of growth seen since 2013, according to Bank of America research.

In a monthly survey by the company, 11.3% of respondents said they or their partner are expecting or trying to have a baby over the next 12 month period. That survey was conducted in October with approximately 1,000 people. It marked an all-time high since Bank of America launched the survey in December 2020.

Some retailers have already credited millennials — and their upswing in marriages, babies and home purchases — for driving more sales. Best Buy said the generation has become its biggest cohort of customers. Home improvement retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s have said that generational trends — not just pandemic-induced nesting — are powering the companies’ strong sales.

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Food companies to lose $3 billion in monthly sales

A sign alerting customers about SNAP food stamps benefits is displayed at a Brooklyn grocery store on December 5, 2019 in New York City.

Scott Heins | Getty Images

Shoppers who get federal food assistance have fueled double-digit growth for retailers and food manufacturers over the past year, but are now under growing pressure to stretch those dollars, according to market research firm IRI.

Some people who qualify for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, commonly known as food stamps, are unemployed. Others are working minimum wage jobs or juggling part-time hours along with child care. With clogged ports and truck driver shortages, transportation and raw material costs are rising, causing sticker shock at the grocery store.

Stimulus checks have largely been spent — and no additional ones appear on the way.

As that pandemic-fueled funding ends, consumer packaged goods companies will feel the pain, too, according to IRI research shared on Tuesday. The companies will lose out on about $3 billion of spending from SNAP shoppers each month. Those shoppers’ spending power is declining, even as the Biden administration increased food assistance earlier this month and families received child tax credits.

Sally Lyons Wyatt, an executive vice president and practice leader for food and beverage at IRI, said economic headwinds, such as inflation, are “going to hit these houses more than anyone.”

SNAP is a sales driver for major grocers like Kroger, big-box players like Walmart and discount chains like Dollar General and Aldi. About 16% of households across the U.S. — 42 million people in total — participate in the SNAP program. SNAP shoppers drive 12% of food and beverage sales online and in stores, according to IRI’s research.

Over the pandemic, the impact of that group has only intensified. SNAP shoppers drove 19% of dollar growth for food and beverage retailers the 52-week period ended Sept. 5 versus the prior year, according to IRI. That’s compared with non-SNAP shoppers who drove just 1% of dollar growth during that same time.

Lyons Wyatt said food and beverage companies and retailers must come up with new approaches to serve shoppers who need budget-friendly ways to feed their families — or risk losing a significant chunk of business. She said they should consider small pack sizes and affordable bundles of food, such as a lower-priced spin on a meal kit. Retailers may want to carry different tiers of the same item, such as soups or canned beans of a value tier along with a standard and premium one, she said.

She pointed to creative efforts by grocers to help families eat healthy on a limited budget, such as offering nutritious recipes with simple ingredients or sponsoring a community garden for kids.

And she said companies will lose sales now and in the future if they dismiss this group of shoppers. She said SNAP shoppers tend to be more loyal to retailers and brands. Plus, she said, catering to families who participate in SNAP can be a way to introduce themselves to future consumers, since many households have young children or teens.

“You will set yourself up for a lifetime consumer value proposition that might not be there if you just don’t take an interest,” she said.

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