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Stock futures are up as investors await inflation data

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Stock futures rose slightly early on Thursday as investors look ahead to inflation data and earnings in the coming days that may provide insight into the future health of the economy.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 32 points, or 0.11%. S&P 500 futures added 0.13%, while futures tied to the Nasdaq increased 0.07%.

The action follows a day of small ups and downs for the market as investors digested minutes from the September Federal Reserve meeting. The minutes showed the central bank expected to keep hiking interest rates until it sees receding inflation. But one comment made some think the Fed might instead slow the rate hikes, if not roll them back, if financial markets tumult continued.

The S&P 500 fell 0.33% to close at 3,577.03. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.09% to 10,417.10. The Dow Jones slipped 0.10%, or 28.34 points, to close at 29,210.85.

“Fed speakers similarly have, since the last meeting, been wedded to the message that their commitment remains solid, even in the face of global financial fault lines showing signs of strain,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.

Early in the day, the September producer price index, a gauge of inflation that looks at final-demand wholesale prices, beat expectations. It rose 0.4% in September, more than Dow Jones’ consensus estimate of 0.2%.

Investors have more data to weigh Thursday as the consumer price index comes in the morning. Dow Jones’ consensus estimates show the CPI rose 0.3% in September, up from 0.1% in August. That would bring inflation’s annual pace to 8.1% from 8.3%.

Despite what she called a lukewarm response to PPI data and the Fed’s meeting minutes, Krosby said markets could be tested if the CPI print is higher than expected, particularly in bond yields.

Household names including Delta Air Lines, Walgreens and Domino’s Pizza will report earnings before the bell Thursday, coming as part of a week considered the start to a new corporate earnings season.

Weekly jobless claims data will also be released Thursday morning.

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Dow futures fall 170 points to start week with key inflation data, earnings ahead

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Getty Images

Stock futures are lower Sunday night as the markets come out of a tumultuous week and traders look ahead to key reports coming in the next week that can offer insights into the health of the economy.

Futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.6% to 29,175 points. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.7% to 3,626.25 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.8% to 11,014.25 points.

Market observers generally consider the week ahead as the kickoff to earnings season, with four of the world’s largest banks – JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Citi – reporting Friday. PepsiCo, Delta and Domino’s are also among companies reporting next week.

Inflation will also take center stage as new monthly Consumer Price Index data comes Thursday morning.

It will follow a week of whiplash for market participants. The first half brought a relief rally that pushed the S&P 500 up more than 5% in its largest two-day gain since 2020.

But jobs data that economists say will keep the Federal Reserve on a path to continue raising interest rates and OPEC+’s decision to slash oil supply rattled investors, diluting wins later in the week. When day trading ended Friday, the S&P was up 1.5% compared to where it started the week. The Dow and Nasdaq were up 1.5% and 0.7%, respectively.

Still, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq had the first positive week in the last four. All remain down substantially so far in 2022, however, and the Nasdaq is less than 1% away from its 52-week low.

Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points, closing at 4.316%. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

“The direction of the stock market is likely to be lower because either the economy and corporate profits are going to slow meaningfully or the Fed is going to have to raise rates even higher and keep them higher for longer,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, on Friday.

“Given the conditions that we are operating under, we believe it’s prudent to begin preparing for a recession,” he added. “The talk of a shallow recession that is now the narrative-du-jour strikes us as eerily similar to the ‘inflation is transitory’ narrative of last year.”

Last week brought heightened concerns that corporate earnings will show the ugly side of a surging dollar as Levi Strauss became the latest to cut guidance due to sliding international sales.

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Don’t ‘be a hero’ while the Fed battles inflation

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday warned investors against adding to their portfolios until the stock market and economy become less volatile.

“This economy is a runaway train; it’s smashed through the Fed’s blockades today, so now they may just blow up the tracks to derail the whole darn thing. When they detonate, it’ll be safe to buy. Until then, I am urging you not to be a hero,” he said.

Cramer warned that he expects central bank officials to stick to their hawkish stance on inflation, adding that the producer price index and consumer price index due next week could shed more light on the state of inflation and the Fed’s next moves.

Stocks tumbled on Friday after the September jobs report signaled that the job market is strengthening despite the central bank’s aggressive interest rate increases.

“There’s always the possibility that this is the last red-hot employment number, in which case the Fed’s tightening into an abyss and the damage could be catastrophic,” he said.

Cramer also previewed next week’s slate of earnings. All earnings and revenue estimates are courtesy of FactSet.

Wednesday: PepsiCo

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 6 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:15 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.84
  • Projected revenue: $20.81 billion

Cramer said he’s hoping the company will report that its raw costs are coming down.

Thursday: Delta Airlines, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Domino’s Pizza, BlackRock

Delta Air Lines

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 6:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.55
  • Projected revenue: $12.90 billion

The company is likely concerned about rising oil prices, Cramer predicted.

Walgreens Boots Alliance

  • Q4 2022 earnings release at 7 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 77 cents
  • Projected revenue: $32.09 billion

Domino’s Pizza

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 7:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $2.98
  • Projected revenue: $1.07 billion

He said that he believes both Walgreens and Domino’s are dealing with worker shortages.

BlackRock

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 6:15 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:30 a.m ET
  • Projected EPS: $7.64
  • Projected revenue: $4.3 billion

Cramer said he’s betting the company will report great results and that he’d be a buyer of the stock.

Friday: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth Group

JPMorgan Chase 

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 7 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $2.92
  • Projected revenue: $32.13 billion

Wells Fargo 

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 7 a.m. ET; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.10
  • Projected revenue: $18.76 billion

Morgan Stanley 

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 7:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 9:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.52
  • Projected revenue: $13.24 billion

“With employment still red-hot, it’s entirely possible the banks can make a killing here without much risk of bad loans,” Cramer said.

UnitedHealth Group

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 5:55 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:45 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $5.43
  • Projected revenue: $80.52 billion

While he has faith the quarter will be solid, he expects the stock to decline if the company’s results are short of being perfect.

Disclaimer: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo.

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FAA rejects proposal to halve pilots’ flight-time requirement amid shortage

A Republic Airways plane approaches the runway at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) in Arlington, Virginia, on April 2, 2022.

Daniel Slim | AFP | Getty Images

The Federal Aviation Administration on Monday said it has rejected a proposal to halve the number of hours required to become a co-pilot, as a severe shortage of aviators prompts carriers to cut routes.

Republic Airways, which flies short routes for Delta, American and United, proposed to regulators in April that pilots be allowed to join an airline after 750 hours of flight time once they’ve completed the carrier’s training program.

Normally, 1,500 hours of flight time are required before a new pilot can fly commercially, though there is an exception for certain military experience that cuts the requirement in half.

The so-called 1,500-hour rule was passed after the fatal Colgan Air crash in February 2009 near Buffalo, New York. The crash also led to new requirements for a minimum period of rest for pilots before a flight.

“The FAA considers it to be of greater public interest to ensure and maintain the level of safety provided by the foundation of an integrated aviation education required by” current criteria, the agency said in its decision, which was released a day ahead of a regional airline conference in Washington, D.C.

The FAA’s decision comes as airlines grapple with a severe shortfall of pilots, which executives have blamed on service cuts, particularly to small cities.

Republic Airways didn’t immediately comment.

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How JetBlue’s takeover of Spirit could change air travel

Passengers wait in line at the Spirit Airlines check-in counter at Orlando International Airport.

Paul Hennessy | LightRocket | Getty Images

Spirit Airlines relented this week and agreed to sell itself to JetBlue Airways for $3.8 billion, hours after breaking off a merger agreement with Frontier Airlines that failed to win enough shareholder support.

The new deal would mean big changes for travelers if it passes regulatory hurdles.

JetBlue has earned a reputation for passenger comforts like relatively generous legroom, seatback screens, live television, free Wi-Fi, and complimentary snacks like Cheez-Its and Stellar vegan butter pretzel braids. It also offers business class, with lie-flat seats.

Spirit, by contrast, has become a punchline for its bare-bones service. The cabins in its bright yellow planes are more cramped, and passengers have to pay extra for “optional services” like carry-on luggage and getting to pick a seat.

“It’s historic. This is the first time anyone wanted Spirit Airlines,” quipped “The Late Show” host Stephen Colbert about the deal on Thursday.

Still, Spirit has expanded rapidly and profitably by offering cheap tickets to vacation hotspots that can sometimes run less than a trip to the movies or a few burgers. The airline’s “Big Front Seat,” however, does offer 36 inches of legroom for a surcharge of up to $250.

As the two distinct airlines push ahead with their plans to combine, here’s what passengers can expect:

What are JetBlue’s plans for Spirit?

JetBlue wants to get bigger, and Spirit has the planes and pilots to help it do that. The New York-based carrier plans to retrofit Spirit’s planes in JetBlue’s style, ripping out the packed-in seats for a roomier layout with more amenities.

Combined, the airlines would become the country’s fifth-largest carrier, behind American, Delta, United and Southwest. Both have a big presence in Florida and each has expanded into Central and South America as well as the Caribbean in recent years. JetBlue last year started flying to London.

The two carriers will continue to operate as separate airlines until after the deal closes, which is subject to regulatory approval. Afterward, passengers might be confused if they’re flying in Spirit planes that haven’t been retrofitted yet.

JetBlue has some experience with such situations through its alliance with American in the Northeast, which allows the carriers to sell seats on each others’ planes. Last year, JetBlue revamped its website to better highlight the differences in onboard features like business class seats or free Wi-Fi.

Despite comedians’ digs, Spirit has improved its reliability in recent years — and is faring better than JetBlue by some measures.

JetBlue came in last among 10 airlines in on-time arrivals this year through May, while Spirit ranked seventh, according to the Transportation Department’s latest available data.

So far this year, a third of JetBlue’s flights were delayed and 4% have been canceled, according to flight tracker FlightAware. By comparison, slightly more than a quarter of Spirit’s flights have arrived late and 2.7% have been canceled.

JetBlue’s CEO Robin Hayes says improving reliability is a priority. The carrier has scaled back growth plans, saying it did not want to overextend its crews and other resources.

“A bigger JetBlue that is late is not a better JetBlue,” said Henry Harteveldt, a former airline executive and founder of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel-industry consulting firm.

Is this the end of cheap fares?

The Biden administration has vowed to take a tough stance on both consolidation and inflation, so the disappearance of an ultra low-cost airline could be a tough sell.

“Spirit might not be an elegant experience, but they are cheap,” said William Kovacic, a professor at the George Washington School of Law and a former chair of the Federal Trade Commission. “If they disappear as an independent enterprise … is that going to remove a source of downward pressure on price?”

But JetBlue’s Hayes says the airline needs to grow quickly and better compete with big airlines that control more than three-quarters of the U.S. market. Hayes argues a bigger JetBlue would mean more relatively lower fares to more destinations.

Like some of the airline giants, JetBlue has already added certain low fares that mimic carriers like Spirit. Those tickets also don’t come with seat assignments or other perks that were once standard with a coach fare.

But JetBlue’s business model of offering more comforts costs more than Spirit’s, meaning it likely won’t offer as many of the rock bottom fares that Spirit does.

Frontier Airlines, meanwhile, is already saying it’s happy to take on a bigger share of the ultra-low-cost market after its Spirit deal fell apart. Shortly after the airlines announced the end of their agreement, Frontier projected it would grow 30% next year and started a fare sale with 1 million seats going for $19 apiece.

The airline will become the largest discount carrier in the U.S. if Spirit is ultimately acquired. Others include Allegiant and Sun Country.

“That just gives us a huge amount of breathing room for growth,” said Frontier CEO Barry Biffle. “That’s why this is such a windfall for our employees and our shareholders.”

When is this happening?

Not immediately. JetBlue and Spirit expect the deal won’t get regulatory approval until late 2023 or early 2024, then close in the first half of 2024.

Integrating airlines is a lengthy and costly process. For example, United and Continental flight attendants didn’t even fly together until eight years after those airlines merged in 2010.

Retrofitting planes can take years too, and JetBlue wouldn’t be able to start that process with Spirit’s fleet until at least 2025. But the airline notes it recently outfitted more than 100 of its Airbus planes with new interiors.

“We’ve got a lot of recent experience in how to do it,” said Hayes.

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JetBlue agrees to buy Spirit in $3.8 billion deal to create 5th-largest U.S. airline

LaGuardia International Airport Terminal A for JetBlue and Spirit Airlines in New York.

Leslie Josephs | CNBC

JetBlue Airways reached a deal to buy Spirit Airlines, hours after the discount carrier scrapped plans to merge with Frontier Airlines.

JetBlue said it will pay $33.50 a share in cash for Spirit in a $3.8 billion deal.

A JetBlue acquisition of Spirit would create the country’s fifth-largest carrier, and if approved by regulators, would leave Frontier as the largest discount carrier in the U.S.

JetBlue’s surprise, all-cash bid for Spirit in April had thrown Spirit’s plan to combine with fellow discounter Frontier into question. For months, Frontier and JetBlue competed for Spirit, each sweetening their offers, until the original merger plan fell apart earlier Wednesday, clearing the way for JetBlue.

Spirit said it planned to continue talks to sell itself to JetBlue after ending the Frontier agreement.

JetBlue executives have argued for months that buying Miramar, Florida-based Spirit would help it compete with large carriers like American, Delta, United and Southwest, which control most of the U.S. market, and fast-track its growth by giving it access to more Airbus jetliners and pilots, both of which are in short supply.

New York-based JetBlue wants to refurbish Spirit’s planes in JetBlue style, featuring seatback screens and more legroom.

Spirit previously rebuffed JetBlue’s bids and said such a deal wasn’t likely to be approved by regulators, in part because JetBlue’s alliance with American, which the Justice Department sued to block last year.

The deal faces a high hurdle for regulatory approval.

Spirit shares were up more than 4% in premarket trading after the deal was announced, while JetBlue was up 0.5%.

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American Airlines (AAL) 2Q 22 earnings

American Airlines Boing 777-300 wide-body aircraft as seen on final approach for landing at London Heathrow International airport in England, UK.

Nicolas Economou | NurPhoto | Getty Images

American Airlines posted its first quarterly profit since the pandemic started without government aid but joined competitors in scaling back growth plans after a host of disruptions this year. The carrier on Thursday forecast a third-quarter profit, however, another sign of strong travel demand, even at high prices.

American posted a second-quarter profit of $476 million, up from $19 million a year earlier, though the carrier was still benefitting from federal coronavirus payroll support last year.

Second-quarter revenue of $13.4 billion was up 12% from before the pandemic, even though American flew 8.5% less than the same period of 2019, the airline said.

American has been more aggressive than rivals United Airlines and Delta Air Lines in restoring capacity, but American’s CEO said the carrier would limit its expansion this year.

“As we look to the rest of the year, we have taken proactive steps to build additional buffer into our schedule and will continue to limit capacity to the resources we have and the operating conditions we face,” CEO Robert Isom said in a note to staff.

The airline said it would fly 8% to 10% below 2019 levels in the third quarter but said revenue would be up as much as 12% from three years earlier as high fares continue into the summer.

American shares were down nearly 3% in premarket trading after releasing results.

Here’s how the carrier performed in the second quarter, compared with Wall Street expectations according to Refinitiv consensus estimates:

  • Adjusted earnings per share: 76 cents versus an expected 76 cents.
  • Total revenue: $13.42 billion versus expected $13.40 billion.

Unit costs surged 45% in the second quarter from three years earlier as the carrier, like its rivals, faced a jump in fuel and other expenses.

American’s executives will hold a call to discuss results at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday. They are likely to face questions on future travel demand, capacity, its labor talks with its pilots and flight attendant unions, hiring progress and aircraft needs.

United late Wednesday reported its first profit since the pandemic without the help of government aid, but said it would cut its growth plans through 2023.

This is breaking news. Check back for updates.

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McDonald’s, Netflix, Amazon, Nvidia, Visa

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Twitter, Unity Software, Delta Air Lines and more

The logo and trading symbol for Twitter is displayed on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, July 11, 2022.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.

Unity Software — Shares tumbled 17% after the interactive software company announced a merger agreement with app software company ironSource in a $4.4 billion all-stock transaction. Unity also cut its full-year revenue guidance. Shares of ironSource soared more than 45% on the news.

Stitch Fix — Shares of Stitch Fix surged 18% after Bill Gurley of Benchmark Capital, who also sits on the board of the clothing company, announced that he’d bought 1 million shares of the stock, adding to his previous stake of 1.22 million shares. Gurley paid an average price of $5.43 per share for the stock, according to an SEC filing.

Twitter — Shares of the social media company climbed more than 8% after the firm filed suit against Elon Musk after he terminated his $44 billion deal to buy the company. Twitter said that Musk’s conduct during his pursuit of the social network amounted to “bad faith.” The stock is still down nearly 2% week to date.

DigitalOcean — Shares of the cloud computing company dropped 2% after Goldman Sachs issued a double downgrade to sell from buy. DigitalOcean could get hit with slowing demand, particularly from consumers overseas, the firm said.

Delta Air Lines — Shares of Delta Air Lines dropped 6% following a mixed earnings report. Other airline stocks dropped. Shares of American Airlines also declined more than 4%, and Alaska Air Group fell more than 2%.

Fastenal — Shares of Fastenal declined 5% after the industrial supplies company reported softening demand in its most recent quarter. “Demand remained generally healthy, but there were certain signs of softening that emerged in May and June,” read remarks from CEO Daniel L. Florness.

Gap — Shares of the retailer dropped 2.5% on the heels of a downgrade to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank. The firm cited execution issues at the company, the increased promotional environment of retail and the departure of CEO Sonia Syngal as reasons for the downgrade.

Advanced Micro Devices — Several chip stocks outperformed on Wednesday. Shares of Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm each jumped more than 2%.

— CNBC’s Yun Li, Jesse Pound and Carmen Reinicke contributed reporting

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Treasury yields fall as traders track economic data, Fed remarks

U.S. Treasury yields slipped Wednesday as investors continue to assess the economic outlook amid rising recession fears.

At around 5:48 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down at 3.173%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dropped to 3.285%. Yields move inversely to prices.

As the second quarter draws to a close on Thursday, concern over a slowing economy and aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve continue to dominate market sentiment.

An attempted rally for risk assets fizzled out on Tuesday after a disappointing consumer confidence reading, which came in at 98.7, below Dow Jones’ consensus estimates of 100.

The Conference Board’s one-year ahead inflation expectations hit a record high of 8.0%, exceeding the 7.7% seen in June 2008, while the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index came in at -19, its lowest since May 2020 and well below consensus expectations of -7.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to give a speech at the European Central Bank forum at 9 a.m. ET. Powell acknowledged in a testimony to the Senate banking committee last week that steep rate hikes may tip the U.S. economy into recession, but reiterated the central bank’s commitment to reining in inflation.

On the economic data front, final first-quarter GDP figures are due at 8:30 a.m., along with PCE prices, corporate profits and consumer spending data.

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