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Europe’s Pandemic Debt Is Dizzying. Who Will Pay?

PARIS — For nearly six months, Philippe Boreal and 120 of his fellow workers have been paid to stay home from their jobs at a Cannes luxury hotel that was forced to close for the pandemic.

Mr. Boreal, a janitor for 20 years, is grateful for the aid, which is bankrolled by the French government under a sweeping plan to rescue people and businesses from economic calamity. But as the Covid-19 crisis drags on, he wonders how long the largess can last.

“At some point you ask yourself, ‘How are we going to pay for all this?’” asked Mr. Boreal, who is collecting more than 80 percent of his paycheck, allowing him to pay essential bills and buy food for his wife and teenage daughter. Most every other hotel along the Cannes waterfront is also keeping staff on state-funded furloughs — as are countless businesses across Europe.

“The bill just seems so big,” Mr. Boreal said. “And it keeps on growing.”

For households trying to balance their budget each month, the fact that European countries are incurring trillion-euro debts is dizzying. In France alone, the national debt has topped 2.7 trillion euros ($3.2 trillion) and will soon exceed 120 percent of the economy.

But governments are far from worried about piling up debt right now, as rock-bottom interest rates empower them to spare no expense to shield their economies from the pandemic.

And spend they do.

Billions of euros are being deployed to nationalize payrolls, suppress bankruptcies and avoid mass unemployment. Trillions more are being earmarked for future stimulus to stoke a desperately needed recovery.

The European Union has upended its policies to finance the largess, breaking with decades of strict limits on deficits, and overcoming visceral German resistance to high debt.

Austerity mantras led by Germany dominated Europe during the 2010 debt crisis, when profligate spending in Greece, Italy and other southern eurozone countries pushed the currency bloc toward a breakup.

The pandemic, which has killed over 450,000 people in Europe, is seen as a different animal altogether — a threat ravaging all the world’s economies simultaneously. While German officials initially warned about runaway spending on the pandemic, European policymakers agree it would be folly to cut spending or raise taxes now to pay debts incurred to counter the economic fallout.

Those debts are surging to levels not seen since World War II. In some European countries, debt is growing so fast that it is outpacing the size of national economies.

But interest rates for many rich nations are around zero because of years of low inflation. While the amount of debt that countries have taken on has grown, the amount that governments pay to service the debt has not.

So can there be such a thing as a free lunch after all? In the current unusual zero-interest world, maybe yes.

Governments are borrowing heavily, issuing an ever growing pile of bonds. The European Central Bank is helping by buying large chunks of that debt, pushing already low interest rates lower still, and creating a mountain of cheap money for countries to tap.

In the United States, President Biden is pursuing an aggressive strategy to combat the pandemic’s toll with a $1.9 trillion economic aid plan. While the national debt is now almost as large as the economy, supporters say the benefits of spending big now outweigh the costs of higher debt.

In Europe, pandemic spending has so far largely focused on floating people and businesses through the crisis. For Mr. Boreal and millions like him around Europe, the support has been vital for surviving through a sputtering recovery that now threatens to turn into a double-dip recession.

“Without the aid, things would be much worse,” said Mr. Boreal, who receives an after-tax salary of €1,700 (about $2,050) a month while on furlough, financed by the state. “It’s allowing us to ride out the pandemic and hopefully get back to work soon.”

For now, such spending is affordable. And government debt may never have to be fully paid back if central banks keep buying it. Countries can essentially roll over their debt at low interest rates, an operation akin to refinancing a mortgage.

The European Central Bank effectively lent eurozone governments around €1.2 trillion last year, and pledged to continue through summer. Public debt in the euro area could rise as much as €4 trillion by the end of 2023, according to the Institut Montaigne, an independent think tank in Paris.

“If there’s no risk of a return of inflation, then the sky’s the limit for debt,” said Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

And that points to the risk in this strategy. Some economists worry that inflation and interest rates could rise if stimulus investment revives growth too rapidly, forcing central banks to put a brake on easy-money policies. If borrowing costs rise, weaker countries could fall into a debt trap, struggling to pay down what they owe.

“If inflation starts to return but there’s no growth, then the situation gets a lot trickier,” said Simon Tilford, director of the Oracle Partnership, a strategic planning firm in London.

And if debt piles up year after year, governments will have a harder time stimulating their economy when the next recession rolls around.

To people in charge of steering their economies through the pandemic, those troubles seem far away.

“We need to reimburse the debt, of course, and to work out a strategy for paying down the debt,” Bruno Le Maire said in an interview with a small group of journalists. “But we won’t do anything before growth returns — that would be crazy.”

For the strategy to work, Europe must act quickly to ensure a robust recovery, economists warn. While leaders approved a €750 billion ($857 billion) stimulus deal last year, countries haven’t been unleashing stimulus spending nearly as rapidly as the United States has to kick-start a revival and create jobs.

“With interest rates at historic lows, the smartest thing we can do is act big,” the new Treasury secretary, Janet L. Yellen, told senators during her confirmation hearing, adding that failing to do so would risk muddling a recovery.

By contrast, “most of what’s been done in Europe is survival support,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. “The current policies on their own will not bring back growth.”

The International Monetary Fund expects growth to bounce back this year to 5.1 percent in the United States, where Congress authorized a $900 billion package in late December. Europe will lag with a rebound of 4.2 percent, the fund said.

As a more contagious variant of the virus races through Europe, triggering new lockdowns, recoveries that were expected as early as summer may be delayed, with implications for national finances. The halting rollout of vaccines adds a further complication to hopes for economic expansion.

Thomas Flammang, 28, a materials engineer at an aerospace consulting company in Rouen, is under no illusions about the weakness of the recovery.

During his first months on furlough, he kept expecting things to return to normal. Stuck at home, he went for long walks and caught up on his reading. But as weeks stretched into months, the company’s order books never picked up enough for him to return to the job.

Without a full reopening of the economy, things are likely to get worse. “For now, my company has saved our jobs,” Mr. Flammang said. But if things don’t perk up, he said, layoffs may be inevitable.

He sees little light at the end of the tunnel.

“Our generation will have to pay for many things: the baby boomers who retire, the cost of the climate crisis,” Mr. Flammang said.

“And now we are using the printing press for the pandemic, and we will have to pay back all this aid,” he said. “It’s maddening when you think about it.”

Antonella Francini contributed reporting.

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Despite surging stocks and home prices, U.S. inflation won’t be a problem for some time

When America’s amusement parks and baseball stadiums no longer must serve as COVID-19 mass vaccination sites, some investors believe that households pocketing pandemic financial aid from the government might start to splurge.

While a consumer splurge could initially boost the parts of the economy devastated by the pandemic, a bigger concern for investors is that a sustained spending spree also could cause prices for goods and services to rise dramatically, dent financial asset values, and ultimately raise the cost of living for everyone.

“I don’t think inflation is dead,” said Matt Stucky, equity portfolio manager at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. “The desire by key policy makers is to have it, and it’s the strongest it’s ever been. You will see rising inflation.”

Wall Street investors and analysts have become fixated in recent weeks on the potential for the Biden Administration’s planned $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package that targets relief to hard-hit households to cause inflation to spiral out of control.

Economists at Oxford Economics said on Friday they expect to see the “longest inflation stretch above 2% since before the financial crisis, but it’s unlikely to sustainably breach 3%.”

Severe inflation can hurt businesses by ratcheting up costs, pinching profits and causing stock prices to fall. The value of savings and bonds also can be chipped away by high inflation over time. 

Another worry among investors is that runaway inflation, which took hold in the late 1970s and pushed 30-year mortgage rates to near 18%, could force the Federal Reserve to taper its $120 billion per month bond purchase program or to raise its benchmark interest rate above the current 0% to 0.25% target sooner than expected and spook markets.

At the same time, it’s not far-fetched to argue that some financial assets already have been inflated by the Fed’s pedal-to-the-metal policy of low rates and an easy flow of credit, and might be due for some cooling off.

U.S. stocks, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.09%,
S&P 500 index
SPX,
+0.47%
and Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+0.50%
closed on Friday at all-time highs, while debt-laden companies can now borrow in the corporate “junk” bond, or speculative-grade, market at record low rates of about 4%.

Read: Stock market stoked by stimulus hopes — what investors are counting on

In addition to rallying stocks and bonds, home prices in the U.S. also have gone through the roof during the pandemic, despite the U.S. still needing to recoup almost as many jobs from the COVID-19 crisis as during the worst of the global financial crisis in 2008.

This chart shows that jobs lost to the pandemic remain near to levels seen in the aftermath of that last crisis.

Job losses need to be tamed


LPL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he doesn’t expect a “large or sustained” outbreak of inflation, while also stressing that the central bank remains focused on recouping lost jobs during the pandemic, as the U.S. looks to makes serious headway in its vaccination program by late July. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday reiterated a call on Friday that the time for more, big fiscal stimulus is now.

“Broadly, the guide is, does it cost me more to live a year from now than a year prior,” Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management, said about inflation in an interview with MarketWatch.

“I think what we need to watch is wage inflation,” he said, adding that higher wages for upper income earners were mostly flat for much of the past decade. Also, many lower-wage households hardest hit by the pandemic have been left out of the past decade’s climb in financial asset prices and home values, he said.

“For the folks who haven’t taken that ride, it feels like a perpetuation of inequality that’s played out for some time,” he said, adding that the “only way to get broad inflation is with a broad overheating of the economy. We have the exact opposite. The bottom third are no where near overheating.”

Klingelhofer said it’s probably also a mistake to watch benchmark 10-year Treasury yields for signs that the economy is overheating and for inflation since, “it’s not a proxy for inflation. It’s just a proxy for how the Fed might react,” he said.

The 10-year Treasury yield
TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.209%
has climbed 28.6 basis points in the year to date to 1.199% as of Friday.

But with last year’s sharp price increases, is the U.S. housing market at least at risk of overheating?

“Not at current interest rates,” said John Beacham, the founder and CEO at Toorak Capital, which finances apartment buildings and single family rental properties, including those going through rehabilitation and construction projects.

“Over the course of the year, more people will go back to work,” Beacham said, but he added that it’s important for policy makers in Washington to provide a bridge for households through the pandemic, until spending on socializing, sporting events, concerts and more can again resemble a time before the pandemic.

“Clearly, there likely will be short-term consumption increase,” he said. “But after that it normalizes.”

The U.S. stock and bond markets will be mostly closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.

On Tuesday, the only tidbit of economic data comes from the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State manufacturing index, followed Wednesday by a slew of updates on U.S. retail sales, industrial production, home builders data and minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting. Thursday and Friday bring more jobs, housing and business activity data, including existing home sales for January.

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