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US

Census data puts target on rural, Rust Belt House districts

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While suburban congressional districts are swelling with new residents, lawmakers in large swaths of rural America and some Rust Belt cities are in need of more people to represent.

In rural Illinois, Republican Rep. Mary Miller’s district is short 73,000 people. In northeastern Ohio, Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan needs an additional 88,000 people. And the Detroit-area district of Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib lacks over 100,000 people — one of the biggest shortfalls in the country.

That makes them all potential targets for map makers — and possibly vulnerable to job loss — as their districts are redrawn in the coming months to rebalance the nation’s shifting population.

The numbers come from an Associated Press analysis of new 2020 census data revealing the boom of urban and suburban America, at the expense of small towns. The emptying out of rural areas was particularly rough news for Republicans, who have increasingly relied on rural voters to win seats in Congress. Of the 61 U.S. House districts that lost population, 35 are held by Republicans.

The party needs to net just five seats to win control of the House in 2022. But it is guaranteed to lose a seat in West Virginia, and likely to take hits in Illinois and New York.

However, Republicans are well positioned to make up those seats — and possibly more — in the growing states of Texas, Florida and North Carolina, where they control the mapmaking process. Fast growing areas, such as Republican-held congressional districts in suburban Texas, are fertile ground for adding new districts or spreading surplus Democratic voters among neighboring districts.

That tactic is among those certain to be contested both in the legislatures and in courts. Democrats on Friday wasted no time filing a fresh lawsuit challenging the current maps in Wisconsin, anticipating a redistricting stalemate in the divided state government and arguing the courts should intervene.

The political parties will be battling not just over where they can gain seats but also where they can eliminate seats held by their opponents. That means some of the toughest battles for mapmakers will occur over districts that have fewer residents than a decade ago, like those in Illinois, Michigan and Ohio — all states that will be losing a U.S. House seat because of lagging population.

Ohio will drop from 16 to 15 U.S. House seats with redistricting. Among the 10 districts with the largest population shortfalls, three were in Ohio, according to the AP analysis, based on the number of residents required per district.

That included Ryan’s district as well as Republican Rep. Bill Johnson’s eastern Ohio district and the Cleveland-area district of former Democratic Rep. Marcia Fudge, who resigned to join President Joe Biden’s administration. Fudge’s district, where Democrat Shontel Turner recently won the primary, is on the hunt for 94,000 more people.

Ryan’s district, though still voting for Democrats, has been trending toward Republicans in recent presidential elections.

Republicans, who control redistricting in Ohio, could “sort of dismember” Ryan’s district and place its residents in other nearby districts, said Paul Beck, a retired political science professor from Ohio State University. “I think that district is going to be on the cutting boards.”

Ryan has announced his plans to run for the U.S. Senate.

A lost Democratic district in Ohio wouldn’t necessarily result in a Republican gain, because the GOP still would have to defend 12 seats that it already holds.

Republicans are guaranteed to lose a congressional seat in West Virginia. That’s because they currently hold all three seats, and one must be eliminated in redistricting.

Another blow may be awaiting Republicans in Illinois, which must trim its congressional delegation from 18 to 17. Democrats who control redistricting there are almost certain to try to eliminate a district in heavily Republican areas of central and southern Illinois. All five of Illinois’ congressional districts held by Republicans lost population between 2010 and 2020, according to the census, giving Democrats the justification to get rid of one.

“I don’t think there’s going to be anything Republicans can do to stop that,” said Alvin Tillery Jr., an associate professor of political science and director of the Center for the Study of Diversity and Democracy at Northwestern University.

A similar scenario could play out in New York, where Democrats also control redistricting and thus will hold sway over which seat must be eliminated.

The fight could be messier in Pennsylvania, where the state’s congressional delegation currently is split 9-9 between Democrats and Republicans. The GOP controls the Legislature, which will draft a new map eliminating one seat, but Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf holds veto power.

The rural Pennsylvania district of Republican Rep. Glenn Thompson ranks among the top 10 nationally in population shortfalls, needing to pick up over 90,000 people to meet the redistricting target. It’s one of six Pennsylvania districts that lost population in the 2020 census, all but one of which are held by Republicans.

Citizens’ commissions will be responsible for deciding how to eliminate one district each in California and Michigan. After the 2010 census, Michigan’s districts were drawn by a Republican-led Legislature and governor and provided the GOP one of the most enduring advantages in the nation, according to an AP analysis.

Michigan lost population in the 2020 census in some rural areas as well as in Detroit and Flint, which was scarred by a tainted water crises this past decade. The districts of Democratic Reps. Dan Kildee, who represents Flint, and Rashida Tlaib of Detroit each are more than 100,000 people short of the redistricting target — the largest gaps nationally outside of West Virginia.

If Republicans were still drawing the maps, one of those districts might be a likely target for elimination. But the state constitution says the citizens’ redistricting commission can neither favor nor disfavor incumbents. That means the new map could look significantly different.

“The commission is very unlikely to just sort of start from the current map and make small adjustments,” said Matt Grossmann, a political scientist who directs the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University. “I really think they’re going to be closer to starting from scratch.”

___

Associated Press writer Sara Burnett contributed to this report from Chicago.

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Science

Oldest Fossilized Land Plant Spores Have Scientists Rethinking How Plants Evolved

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When plants first ventured onto the land, evolving from freshwater-dwelling algae, more than 500 million years ago, they transformed the planet. By drawing carbon dioxide from the air, they cooled Earth, and by eroding rock surfaces they helped build the soil that now covers so much land.

 

These changes to the planet’s atmosphere and land surface paved the way for the evolution of the biosphere we know. Land plants make up around 80 percent of Earth’s biomass.

The pioneering plants were small and moss-like, and they had to overcome two big challenges to survive on land: avoiding drying out, and surviving the Sun’s harsh ultraviolet light.

In rock samples from Canning Basin in the north of Western Australia, we have discovered 480 million-year-old fossilized spores from early land plants alongside spores from ancestral water-dwelling algae.

These are the oldest land plant spores found, and they give us new clues about when and where plants made the jump to land and also how they managed to survive. The research is published in Science.

When plants colonized land

Estimates of the initial timing of the colonization of land by plants are based on large fossilized plant remains, calculations of how long it has taken different species to evolve (called “molecular clock” data), and the record of plant spores.

Molecular clock data suggest land colonization occurred around 515 million years ago (in the Cambrian period), while the earliest plant stem fossils occur around 430 million years ago (in the mid-Silurian period).

 

These early small plants did not have root systems or hard woody tissue, which may explain why their fossil remains are rare.

Alternatively, we can look at the spores of plants. Spores are simple reproductive units that carry genetic material (much simpler than seeds, which did not evolve until much later).

For successful reproduction, the spore walls of land plants had to be strong enough to resist drying out and damage from ultraviolet radiation.

These resilient spore walls are also what allows the spores to be preserved for hundreds of millions of years in ancient sediments, and to be extracted from those sediments using strong acids as used in this study. We then studied the shapes of the spores under the microscope.

The shape of spores

The spores of the earliest land plants occur as more or less regular geometrically arranged groups of two or four cells. Such spores and have been found in sediments as old as 465 million years (in the Ordovician period), which places them at least 35 million years before any known larger plant fossils.

However, older spores (from around 505 million years ago) have also been found in the United States. Paul Strother (of Boston College, my co-author on the new Canning Basin research) and his colleagues have shown these older spores are likely to derive from freshwater algae called charophytes.

 

These older spores occur as irregularly shaped “packets” of cells. These same “packets” of spores also occur in the fossils we found in the Canning Basin, dated to around 25 million years later.

Charophyte algae live semi-aquatically. To survive in this situation they developed genes to resist desiccation and the damaging effects of UV.

The earliest land plants either captured parts of that ancestral algal genome, perhaps through “horizontal gene transfer” in which bacteria move genes from one organism to another, or developed similar genes on their own.

Given the time frame of millions of years, it suggests the origin of the land plants did not occur as a singular event.

We found both land plant spores, with either two or four cells, and irregularly packaged algal spores in the Canning Basin assemblage, which shows land plants and their algal ancestors existed together in the same area at the same time.

It also shrinks the time gap between estimates of land colonization from molecular clock data (515 million years ago) and fossil evidence.

At around 480 million years old, the Canning Basin record is the oldest yet found anywhere in the world.

 

Where did land plants get their start?

Our discovery follows from earlier studies of land plant spores in Canning Basin. In 1991 spores dated around 440-445 million years ago were found, and more dated to 460 million years ago were found in 2016.

Those two records were only found after examination of extracts from about 100 core samples in efforts to determine the age of the rock sequences, which shows the spores are rare.

The sediments deposited in the Canning Basin in this period are mainly from marine environments, as we can see from shelly fossils and microfossils such as conodonts.

The early land plants, like their charophyte algae ancestors, grew in freshwater settings at the fringes of the sea.

Spores and sediments were washed into these areas. So the fossil records that have come down to us depend on the geography of the ancient world.

In 2020, Geoscience Australia in collaboration with the Geological Survey of Western Australia drilled a well in the southern part of the Canning Basin to understand the geology of the subsurface rocks.

After acid extraction of rock samples from a geological formation called the Nambeet Formation, which dates to the Early Ordovician period (485 million to 470 million years ago), we identified land plant spores with the typical regular arrangements of two or four cells.

As part of that work, we examined preparations of plant spores, already mounted on glass slides, from the original section of the Nambeet Formation drilled in 1958.

And here we found the first record of land plant spores associated with spores from their algal ancestors. Our discovery would not have been possible without the access to these earlier materials provided by the WA government.

Further studies are needed to determine where additional algal and land plant spores occur in Australian sediments from the Late Cambrian and Ordovician periods.

New data may also shed light on where the land plants got their start: was it on this continent, as others have suggested?

The present work has emphasized the importance of access to previous data and materials, and we acknowledge the critical science infrastructure role of curating geological samples and data by the WA government.

Clinton Foster, Honorary professor, Australian National University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

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Health

US Kids Are Eating More Ultra-Processed Food Than Ever Before, Startling Data Reveals

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Ultra-processed foods now make up more than two-thirds of the calories consumed in the diets of young people in the US, a startling new study reveals – and researchers are warning that convenience could be taking priority over health when it comes to food choices.

 

These types of processed foodstuffs accounted for 61 percent of total caloric intake in 1999, the analysis found, and jumped to 67 percent by 2018. That’s based on surveys of 33,795 children and teenagers aged between 2 and 19.

The biggest jump – from 2.2 percent to 11.2 percent of calories – came from ready-to-eat or ready-to-heat dishes including frozen pizza, burgers, and takeouts. The second biggest rise in calories was from sweets and snacks: 10.6 percent to 12.9 percent.

Across the same period, calories from unprocessed or minimally processed foods, which are usually healthier, fell from 28.8 percent to 23.5 percent. The remainder was made up from moderately processed food (like cheese and canned fruits) and flavor enhancers (including sugar and butter).

Of course, not all processed foods are equally problematic when it comes to negative health impacts.

“Some whole grain breads and dairy foods are ultra-processed, and they’re healthier than other ultra-processed foods,” says cancer epidemiologist Fang Fang Zhang, from Tufts University. “Processing can keep food fresher longer, allows for food fortification and enrichment, and enhances consumer convenience.

“But many ultra-processed foods are less healthy, with more sugar and salt, and less fiber, than unprocessed and minimally processed foods, and the increase in their consumption by children and teenagers is concerning.”

 

There was some good news: calories from sugar-sweetened beverages dropped from 10.8 percent to 5.3 percent of overall calories consumed. According to Zhang, that’s a direct result of a concerted campaign to reduce the consumption of sugary drinks – and now more work is needed in other categories.

Ultra-processed foods are often high in simple carbohydrates, such as sucrose and fructose, and don’t typically contain much in the way of the fiber, proteins, vitamins and minerals that help to fuel our bodies.

The issue here is far from simply shaming individual choices. Extensive research has established that consuming too much processed food has been linked with a range of health problems, including a rise in obesity, cardiovascular issues, and certain types of cancer.

All of these impacts can negatively affect a person’s wellbeing and, in aggregate, place larger burdens on the health system. That makes it important to tackle this rise in processed food consumption in kids, the researchers say.

Health experts say marketing, pricing and availability in schools is driving the take up of ultra-processed food in schools – at a time when dietary habits can be set for life.

Parental education and family income didn’t have a significant impact on the level of calories contributed by ultra-processed foods – something that the researchers say shows how pervasive these types of food have become.

The team behind the new study wants to see more detailed tracking and analysis carried out in the future.

“Food processing is an often-overlooked dimension in nutrition research,” says Zhang. “We may need to consider that ultra-processing of some foods may be associated with health risks, independent of the poor nutrient profile of ultra-processed foods generally.”

The research has been published in JAMA.

 

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Health

New vaccinations have nearly doubled from last month, according to CDC data

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The average pace of first doses being administered across the United States has nearly doubled from a month ago, according to a federal government tally. The uptick is the latest sign of growing interest in the shots amid surging COVID-19 cases around the country and a push to vaccinate children ahead of the new school year.

Nationwide, the country was averaging around 441,198 new vaccinations per day as of August 5, according to figures released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That represents a 95% increase from the mere 226,209 average of first doses recorded a month prior, on July 5.

The sharp turnaround comes after the average pace of new vaccinations had been plummeting for months, bottoming out around 218,696 on July 7.

Since then, the pace of first doses has steadily climbed in nearly every state. Some of the largest increases have come in areas that had long lagged the nationwide vaccination average, and are now besieged by spikes in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

In Alabama, which has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the U.S., the average pace of new vaccinations has climbed more than 100% according to the CDC’s figures from July 22. The next largest increase was in Louisiana, where first shots have accelerated 84%, followed by Nebraska and Minnesota. Alabama and Louisiana are among the states that have seen some of most severe COVID-19 surges so far this summer.

The largest share of first doses in the past two weeks has gone to adults between 25 and 39 years old. That group made up more than 25% of all Americans who started their COVID-19 vaccination regimens over the past two weeks.

Some of those new first doses may have been driven by a growing list of employers moving to push their workers to get the shots, including hospital employees and government workers. The share of unvaccinated Americans who said they would get a COVID-19 vaccine “only if required” fell from 6% to 3% last month, according to a poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

However, the largest uptick in first doses over the past month has been in children. More than 4 in 10 adolescents, ages 12 to 15 years old, now have at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine — up 8.5% from a month prior. The share of older teens who have had at least one shot climbed 6.5 percentage points over the past month to more than 50% nationwide.

The Biden administration last week touted its own efforts to aid school districts in getting students vaccinated. For older teens headed to college, some 675 campuses have moved to require vaccinations for at least some of their students or staff, according to a tally by The Chronicle of Higher Education.

And with many children still yet to be fully vaccinated, many public health experts have renewed calls for states not to loosen mitigation measures ahead of the next school year.

“Despite high adult vaccination, the risks of both in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and resulting infections among students, educators/staff, and their household members remain high when the delta variant predominates and students are unvaccinated,” concluded the authors of a recent study funded in part by the CDC, which has yet to be peer-reviewed.

While children tend to face less severe symptoms of the disease, many are now flooding into hospitals at record numbers with COVID-19. Federal health officials have said they are investigating surging cases of the COVID-19 Delta variant among children.

“Look, I understand that there are millions of people who decided — adults — who decided not to get vaccinated. And I understand that to badger those folks is not likely to get them to move and get vaccinated,” President Biden told reporters Tuesday. “But I also understand that the reason children are becoming infected is because, in most cases, they live in low-vaccination-rate states and communities, and they’re getting it from unvaccinated adults.”

“And so, my plea is that for those who are not vaccinated: Think about it,” the president added.

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Business

Stock futures trade cautiously ahead of inflation data

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Hodges Capital Management founder Craig Hodges on his outlook for the market amid inflationary pressures and labor shortages.

U.S. equity futures are trading cautiously lower ahead of the release of inflation data.

The major futures indexes are trading mixed ahead of the Wednesday trading session on Wall Street.

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Investors will be watching for the latest report on retail inflation.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to say the consumer price index rose 0.5% month-over-month in July, trailing June’s stronger-than-expected growth of 0.9%, the highest since August 2008. 

On a year-over-year basis watch for prices to increase 5.3% in July, just a notch below June’s 5.4% annual growth rate which was also the highest since August 2008. If you factor out volatile food and energy costs, the core consumer price index likely rose 0.4% last month and is expected to increase 4.3% year-over-year.

CONSUMERS COULD SEE PRICES RISE AS WESTERN DROUGHTS WORSEN

In Asia, the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo rose 0.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.2% and China’s Shanghai Composite Index added 0.1%.

In Europe, London’s FTSE added 0.4%, Germany’s DAX was higher by 0.1% and France’s CAC gained 0.3%.

One stock that will be active on Wednesday will be WW International. Shares are down 26% in the premarket following quarterly results that missed expectations.

The New York-based company said it had net income of 12 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to 48 cents per share. The expectation was for 67 cents.

The weight-loss program operator posted revenue of $311.4 million in the period, which also missed Street forecasts. 

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs Tuesday after the Senate passed an infrastructure package and oil prices mostly recovered from Monday’s slump.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
I:DJI DOW JONES AVERAGES 35264.67 +162.82 +0.46%
SP500 S&P 500 4436.75 +4.40 +0.10%
I:COMP NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 14788.086837 -72.09 -0.49%

The S&P 500 recovered from an early slip and added 0.1% to 4,436.75. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 35,264.67. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.5% to 14,788.09.

The Senate’s passage of the $1 trillion infrastructure bill gave a boost to shares of steel and aluminum makers, construction materials providers, and construction and engineering firms. 

BIDEN PRAISES MCCONNELL FOR HELPING PASS $1T INFRASTRUCTURE BILL

Banks made some of the strongest gains as bond yields edged higher. Banks benefit from higher yields, which allow them to charge higher interest rates on loans. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.37%.

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In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude slipped 17 cents to $68.12 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the price standard for international oils, gave up 10 cents to $70.53 per barrel in London.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Business

Dow Jones Rises As Senate Votes On $1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill; Tesla Stock Slides On China Sales Data

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 150 points Tuesday, as the U.S. Senate is expected to pass a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure package. Tesla stock dropped following July China sales data.




X



Among Dow Jones leaders, Apple (AAPL) rallied 1% Tuesday, while Microsoft (MSFT) moved up 0.2% in today’s stock market. Home Depot (HD) is trying to clear a new buy point, but is below the entry.

Tesla (TSLA) threatened to fall after Monday’s 2.1% gain, dropping over 1% Tuesday morning.

Among the top stocks to buy and watch, MercadoLibre (MELI), Snap (SNAP) and Square (SQ) are in or near new buy zones.

MercadoLibre, Microsoft and Tesla are IBD Leaderboard stocks. Square is an IBD SwingTrader stock. Snap was featured in this week’s Stocks Near A Buy Zone column.

Dow Jones Today: $1 Trillion Infrastructure Package

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 0.35% Tuesday, while the S&P 500 traded down less than 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite reversed 0.5% lower in midday trade.

U.S. Stock Market Today Overview
Index Symbol Price Gain/Loss % Change
Dow Jones (0DJIA) 35227.41 +125.56 +0.36
S&P 500 (0S&P5) 4436.70 +4.35 +0.10
Nasdaq (0NDQC ) 14805.00 -55.18 -0.37
Russell 2000 (IWM) 222.21 +0.05 +0.02
IBD 50 (FFTY) 46.33 -0.17 -0.37
Last Update: 10:36 AM ET 8/10/2021

The Senate was set to pass a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure package with broad bipartisan support Tuesday. The bill includes $550 billion for transportation, broadband and utilities. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill’s passage at about 11 a.m. ET.

Among exchange traded funds, the Innovator IBD 50 (FFTY) traded up 0.3% Tuesday. Nasdaq 100 tracker Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) moved less than 0.1% higher. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose 0.2%.

Stock Market Rally

The Dow Jones industrials and the S&P 500 remain just off Friday’s record highs, while the Nasdaq recovered more of Friday’s modest losses.

Monday’s Big Picture commented, “Meanwhile, the astute IBD reader no doubt is keeping a close eye on the elevated distribution day count on both the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Indeed, a large number of institutional sell-offs should never be ignored. Yet few of the current distribution days in the rolling 25-trading-day account showed real bite. For instance, out of the five seen in the Nasdaq lately, just the July 19 decline (1.1%) exceeded 1%.”

For more stock market commentary, check out IBD’s The Big Picture.

Stock Market ETF Strategy And How To Invest

Dow Jones Stocks To Buy And Watch: Home Depot

Dow Jones leader Home Depot is trying to break out past a cup with handle’s 333.55 buy point, according to IBD MarketSmith chart analysis. The 5% buy area goes up to 350.23.

Shares gained 0.1% Tuesday morning.

Stocks To Buy And Watch: MercadoLibre, Snap, Square

IBD Leaderboard stock MercadoLibre is trading above a 1,755.05 buy point following Tuesday’s nearly 5% jump. Per Leaderboard analysis, the stock’s first 5 minutes of trading notched a high of 1,755.05, setting an alternate entry for aggressive investors. A trend line within the base may also offer another early entry point.

The stock is also building the right side of a cup base, according to IBD MarketSmith chart analysis. Another possible entry looms at 2020.10. And be on the lookout for a potential handle to offer a more risk-optimal buy point.

Snap is trading just past the 5% buy zone above a 73.69 buy point in a consolidation. The 5% buy area tops out at 77.37. Shares gained 0.8% Tuesday morning.

On July 23, Snap surged almost 24% following a second-quarter earnings report that toppled estimates with revenue more than doubling, and an outlook that also beat views.

IBD SwingTrader stock Square is back in buy range past a 267.87 buy point in a cup-with-handle base amid Tuesday’s 0.5% loss. The 5% buy zone goes up to 281.26.

According to the IBD Stock Checkup, SQ stock shows a 96 out of a perfect 99 IBD Composite Rating. The IBD Composite Rating identifies stocks with a blend of strong fundamental and technical characteristics.

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock dropped over 1% Tuesday, giving back a piece of Monday’s 2.1% gain. Early Tuesday, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said that Tesla sold 32,968 China-made vehicles in July, including 24,347 for export.

Shares are still above a 700.10 aggressive buy point deep inside a correction. Meanwhile, a deep, large base continues to take shape.

On Jan. 25, Tesla stock hit a record high at 900.40, after climbing as much as 93% from a 466 buy point in a cup with handle.

Dow Jones Leaders: Apple, Microsoft

Among the top Dow Jones stocks, Apple moved up 1% Tuesday, on pace to snap a two-day losing streak. The stock hit an all-time high on July 15 at 150. Apple stock remains out of the 5% buy zone from a 137.17 entry in a cup base. On a weekly chart, IBD MarketSmith chart analysis also places a buy point at 145.19 in a consolidation, which would put Apple in a buy range through 152.45.

Software giant Microsoft rose 0.1% early Tuesday, but remains just off record highs. Microsoft continues to trade solidly above a cup base’s 263.29 buy point. The stock is extended above the 5% buy zone, which goes up to 276.45.

Be sure to follow Scott Lehtonen on Twitter at @IBD_SLehtonen for more on growth stocks and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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Health

Health officials say 10 fully vaccinated Oregonians died of COVID-19 in July, correcting previously reported data

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The Oregon Health Authority reported Monday that 10 of the 55 Oregonians who died from COVID-19 in July were fully vaccinated.

The report corrected information previously issued by the agency, which originally reported that only five fully vaccinated Oregonians died from COVID-19 last month.

Health officials said that epidemiologists found that five deaths among fully vaccinated people had incorrectly been counted as deaths of unvaccinated individuals. The new data means that 18% of the state’s COVID-19 deaths in July were among fully vaccinated people.

Dr. Melissa Sutton, medical director for respiratory viral pathogens at the Oregon Health Authority, said it is too early to tell if the new information represents a trend.

“The overall numbers still show that people who are unvaccinated remain at far greater risk from COVID-19 illness, especially from the Delta variant that is now being found in most cases in Oregon,” Sutton said.

—Jayati Ramakrishnan; 503-221-4320; jramakrishnan@oregonian.com; @JRamakrishnanOR

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Technology

Password of three random words better than complex variation, experts say | Data and computer security

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It is much better to concoct passwords for online accounts that are made up of three random words as opposed to creating complex variations of letters, numbers and symbols, government experts have said.

In a blogpost, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) – which is part of Government Communications Headquarters – said a three-word system creates passwords that are easy to remember. In addition, it creates unusual combinations of letters, which means the system is strong enough to keep online accounts secure from cybercriminals. By contrast, more complex passwords can be ineffective as their makeup can often be guessed by criminals using specialist software.

The agency said cybercriminals targeted predictable strategies meant to make passwords more complex. Examples include substituting the letter O with a zero, or the number one with an exclamation mark.

Criminals allow for such patterns in their hacking software, negating any added security from such passwords. “Counterintuitively, the enforcement of these complexity requirements results in the creation of more predictable passwords,” the agency said.

By contrast, passwords constructed from three random words tended to be longer and harder to predict, and used letter combinations that were more difficult for hacking algorithms to detect, it said.

The blogpost conceded that using three random words was not 100% safe, since people might use predictable word combinations, but said a major advantage of the system was its usability “because security that’s not usable doesn’t work”.

Cybercrime has soared during the pandemic, with online fraud rising 70% over the past year, according to data from the Office for National Statistics.

“Traditional password advice telling us to remember multiple complex passwords is simply daft,” the NCSC’s technical director, Dr Ian Levy, said on the centre’s website.

“There are several good reasons why we decided on the three random words approach – not least because they create passwords which are both strong and easier to remember.

“By following this advice, people will be much less vulnerable to cybercriminals and I’d encourage people to think about the passwords they use on their important accounts, and consider a password manager.”

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Health

Alabama State Health Officer Scott Harris says data showing that vaccines work

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State Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris said today information collected so far backs up the projections about the high rate of effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccinations.

Harris gave an update and answered questions about the pandemic in Alabama, including the latest information on vaccines, mask policies in public schools, and concerns about the fast rise in hospitalizations.

Alabama, like other states, has suffered from a surge in infections and hospitalizations in the last month, fueled by the more contagious Delta variant and low vaccination rates.

Harris said several consecutive days of adding more than 3,000 cases per day across Alabama marks a 10-fold increase over early July.

Related: 3,685 COVID cases added in Alabama; 846 from 1 county

The increase comes as families prepare for the school year and as school systems, colleges, employers and others weigh decisions and policies about mask requirements, vaccines, and other issues.

Although Alabama has ranked at the bottom national in vaccination rates, the rate of people receiving the shots rose across the state in July.

This morning, Harris said so far there have been about 6,400 known breakthrough cases of COVID-19 in Alabama among the 1.6 million people fully vaccinated, about 0.4%.

“That’s a very, very small number,” Harris said.

There are probably more breakthrough cases than that number indicates, Harris said, partly because vaccinated people are less likely to develop serious symptoms that would result in their cases being reported.

There have been 26 deaths reported of people fully vaccinated in the state, Harris said.

As he did at his last weekly briefing last Friday, Harris expressed concern about the sharp rise in hospitalizations. In early July there were fewer than 200 hospitalized COVID patients in the state. As of Thursday, there were more than 1,800, double the number from just a week ago.

It’s unclear when the increase might start to level off, Harris said. He said Alabama hospitals have about a 93% occupancy rate in ICU beds. But he said hospitals are much better prepared than during the first waves of the pandemic last year as far as treatments, supplies, equipment, and know-how regarding care, such as when to place patients on ventilators.

Based on information from the Alabama Hospital Association, Harris said about 95% of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 are unvaccinated. He said the ADPH will eventually have more exact numbers on that.

The hospitalized patients as of Thursday included 37 children or adolescents, Harris said.

Harris said he was concerned that the state had three straight days of double-digit deaths reported from COVID: 19 on Tuesday, 13, on Wednesday, and 26 on Thursday. He said it remains unclear, in Alabama and nationally, whether deaths will rise in the same proportions with cases as earlier in the pandemic.

“Deaths are a lagging indicator in a way,” Harris said. “We see case numbers go up first and then usually, a week or two later is when we see hospitalizations go up. And usually, a week or two after that is when we see deaths go up.

“Nationally, with the spread of the Delta variant, it’s not been clear deaths are going to go up in the same way just because you have younger people getting infected for the most part, on average, given that so many older people have vaccine protection.”

Overall, Alabama has had 603,000 cases of the virus and 11,600 deaths, according to the dashboard maintained by the Department of Public Health.

Harris noted the uptick in vaccinations across Alabama last week, when he said at least 10,000 vaccinations were given daily, including 16,000 on Friday, the most in a day since mid-May. That was encouraging, Harris said, but said the numbers needed to continue to grow.

The number of people who have received at least one shot has increased to slightly more than 2 million, with the number fully vaccinated at about 1.6 million.

As to the need for people to receive the vaccine with the rise of the more contagious Delta variant, Harris noted that people should remember it takes five or six weeks after the first shot for the vaccine to become fully protective.

Vaccines are free and widely available, he noted. He said there are now about 1.5 million doses in the state. He said people who received one shot of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine but postponed or missed an appointment for receiving a second shot should understand that it is not too late to return for their second shot.

About 65,000 doses have expired and gone to waste, he said.

The status of booster shots for the people who are vaccinated is not yet clear, according to Harris. He said the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have shown to maintain their effectiveness at the six-month mark.

Harris reiterated the Alabama Department of Public Health position that all children in K-12 schools should wear masks. That follows the CDC recommendations. Harris said ADPH has advised school systems and had a conference call with more than 100 superintendents earlier this week.

Harris said there were no plans for a statewide mask mandate for schools.

“The state is not going to mandate that but instead that’s going to be a decision for local communities, local school boards to make,” Harris said. “Not every community is the same. There are different factors that have to be considered in each school board. But our view in public health is that universal masking is the best way to protect people.”

He said he was concerned about the return to school adding to the increase in COVID cases.

Harris was asked about the difficulty of vaccine hesitancy and the misinformation from social media and other sources that distorts the overall picture when it comes to vaccine safety and effectiveness. He said the answer is to focus on providing the best information possible rather than take a confrontational approach.

“I think that’s just a lesson for life we all figured out in kindergarten,” Harris said. “You don’t change people’s minds by yelling at them or or insulting them. That’s not effective in anything, whether you’re talking about COVID or anything else. I certainly understand there’s a lot of frustration on the part of people who have done everything they can for a year and a half and have gotten vaccinated as soon as they could and desperately want to get back to normal.”

Harris said people who are undecided about whether a vaccine is appropriate should ask their doctors. He said that was the best way to overcome vaccine hesitancy.

“Our goal is not to blame people or shame people, our goal is just to try to get people the best information we can,” he said.

Related: Alabama schools are making COVID-19, mask decisions. Parents feel left out.

Alabama releases new school guidance for COVID quarantines, masking

Mass vaccination site in Birmingham adds extra hours as demand rises

University of Alabama to reinstate required masks indoors

n

Alabama State Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris gives an update on the COVID-19 pandemic.

Posted by al.com on Friday, August 6, 2021

","type":"facebook-video","version":"1.0","width":500,"_id":"https://www.facebook.com/aldotcom/videos/328204148996911/&locale=en_US","additional_properties":{"_id":1628283891143,"comments":[]}},"referent":{"id":"https://www.facebook.com/aldotcom/videos/328204148996911/&locale=en_US","provider":"https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video/oembed.json/?url=","referent_properties":{"additional_properties":{"_id":1628283891143,"comments":[]}},"service":"oembed","type":"facebook-video"}},{"_id":"WML5DK2GABCXXAKTBAKXQ32QTM","type":"text","additional_properties":{"_id":1628265141904,"comments":[],"inline_comments":[]},"content":"The hospitalized patients as of Thursday included 37 children or adolescents, Harris said."},{"_id":"MN3DXCWSY5C4RFNREPZXWSA2IA","type":"text","additional_properties":{"_id":1628272343895,"comments":[],"inline_comments":[]},"content":"Harris said he was concerned that the state had three straight days of double-digit deaths reported from COVID: 19 on Tuesday, 13, on Wednesday, and 26 on Thursday. He said it remains unclear, in Alabama and nationally, whether deaths will rise in the same proportions with cases as earlier in the pandemic."},{"_id":"ZXGYIXA7EBCMPJNNAMEOSDVQDI","type":"text","additional_properties":{"_id":1628275627560,"comments":[],"inline_comments":[]},"content":"“Deaths are a lagging indicator in a way,” Harris said. “We see case numbers go up first and then usually, a week or two later is when we see hospitalizations go up. And usually, a week or two after that is when we see deaths go up."},{"_id":"IBR3FOYI4NEXZFIOH6EFYHV4Q4","type":"text","additional_properties":{"_id":1628275627561,"comments":[],"inline_comments":[]},"content":"“Nationally, with the spread of the Delta variant, it’s not been clear deaths are going to go up in the same way just because you have younger people getting infected for the most part, on average, given that so many older people have vaccine protection.”"},{"_id":"5U4GOSETYJBAHP3T5A4JLWZJUY","type":"text","additional_properties":{"_id":1628275627562,"comments":[],"inline_comments":[]},"content":"Overall, Alabama has had 603,000 cases of the virus and 11,600 deaths, according to the dashboard maintained by the Department of Public Health."},{"_id":"WUHQ6MXYFVBQPGFBSLQQGGI6YQ","type":"text","additional_properties":{"_id":1628275627563,"comments":[],"inline_comments":[]},"content":"Harris noted the uptick in vaccinations across Alabama last week, when he said at least 10,000 vaccinations were given daily, including 16,000 on Friday, the most in a day since mid-May. 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He said there are now about 1.5 million doses in the state. He said people who received one shot of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine but postponed or missed an appointment for receiving a second shot should understand that it is not too late to return for their second shot."},{"_id":"P2LMCDUWURFTNJLVNBIJ2SBTNA","type":"text","additional_properties":{"_id":1628272343899,"comments":[],"inline_comments":[]},"content":"About 65,000 doses have expired and gone to waste, he said."},{"_id":"G276BYJAQNB5ZH7PL54W37RXP4","type":"text","additional_properties":{"_id":1628272343900,"comments":[],"inline_comments":[]},"content":"The status of booster shots for the people who are vaccinated is not yet clear, according to Harris. 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New Data Suggest J. & J. Vaccine Works Against Delta

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A single dose of the Covid-19 vaccine made by Johnson & Johnson is highly effective in preventing severe illness and death from the Delta and Beta variants of the coronavirus, data from a clinical trial in South Africa suggest.

The study is the first real-world test of the vaccine’s efficacy against Delta, a highly contagious variant of the virus surging across the United States and much of the world. South Africa’s Ministry of Health reported these preliminary results at a news conference on Friday. The data have not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a scientific journal.

In the trial, called Sisonke, the researchers evaluated one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine in nearly 500,000 health care workers, who are at high risk of Covid-19. The vaccine has an efficacy of up to 95 percent against death from the Delta variant, and up to 71 percent against hospitalization, the researchers reported. (The vaccine did slightly worse against the Beta variant, which is thought to be more adept at sidestepping the immune response than Delta.)

“We believe this vaccine is doing what it was designed to do, which was to stop people going to hospital and stop them ending in I.C.U.s and dying,” said Dr. Linda-Gail Bekker, co-lead of the study and director of the Desmond Tutu H.I.V. Centre at the University of Cape Town.

The results suggest that people who have received one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine don’t need a booster shot, Dr. Bekker said.

When so-called breakthrough infections did occur in vaccinated volunteers, they produced mild symptoms in 96 percent of the cases and resulted in severe disease or death in less than 0.05 percent, the study found. The trial ran from February to May of this year.

The results should comfort the millions of people who have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, particularly because some previous studies had suggested the single shot may be vulnerable to Delta. Laboratory studies of the vaccine’s performance against the variant have been mixed, and a trial comparing the one- and two-dose regimens has not yet released results.

Given the uncertainty, some Johnson & Johnson recipients have sought a second dose on their own. Health officials in San Francisco are offering residents immunized with Johnson & Johnson a supplemental dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines.

South Africa approved the Johnson & Johnson vaccine in April. The country battled a surge of the Beta variant of the virus earlier this year, but Delta has become the dominant variant in recent weeks. More than 8 million South Africans have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine or at least one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

“This study was conducted as a real-world efficacy study in one of the most challenging epidemiologic settings,” said Dr. Dan Barouch, a virologist at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston who has led some studies for J. & J. but was not involved in the trial. “This is very good news for the fight against the global Covid-19 pandemic.”

The South African researchers recorded two cases of the rare clotting disorder associated with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine in the trial; both participants made a complete recovery.

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