That payout, announced Wednesday, is roughly equivalent to the stock-market value of companies such as the big-box retailer

Target Corp.

, the pharmaceutical firm

Moderna Inc.

and

Airbnb Inc.

Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company after

Exxon Mobil Corp.

, posted revenue of $246.3 billion, up from $162.5 billion the previous year. The San Ramon, Calif., company reported a fourth-quarter profit of $6.4 billion, up from $5.1 billion in the same period the prior year.

The fourth-quarter results came short of analyst expectations, and Chevron shares closed down more than 4% Friday.

For all of its recent winnings, though, Chevron and its rival oil-and-gas producers could face a rockier year in 2023, according to investors and analysts, if an anticipated slowdown in U.S. economic growth dents demand for oil, and if China’s reopening from strict Covid-19 restrictions unfolds slowly.

U.S. oil prices have held steady this year, but are off about 36% from last year’s peak. The industry is proceeding with caution, holding capital expenditures for 2023 below prepandemic levels and saying production will grow only modestly. Chevron has said it plans to spend about $17 billion in capital expenditures this year, up more than 25% from the prior year, but $3 billion less than it planned to spend in 2020 before Covid-19 took root.

Oil companies are still outperforming other sectors such as tech and finance, which have seen widespread job cuts in recent weeks. The energy segment of the S&P 500 index has climbed 43.7% over the past year, compared with a 6.7% drop for the broader index.

Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth said the company is unsure of what 2023 will bring after global energy supplies were squeezed because of geopolitical events last year, particularly in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He said markets appeared to be stabilizing.

“We certainly have seen a very unusual and volatile year in 2022,” Mr. Wirth said, noting the European energy crisis has proven less dire than anticipated thanks to milder winter weather, growing natural gas inventories in Europe. “China’s economy has been slow throughout the year, which looks to be turning around. It’s good that markets have calmed.”

Chevron hit a record in U.S. oil-and-gas production in 2022, increasing 4% to about 1.2 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, stemming from its increased focus on capital investments in the Western Hemisphere, particularly in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, where it boosted output 16% last year. Worldwide, Chevron’s oil-and-gas production was down 3.2% compared with the prior year, at 2.99 million barrels of oil-equivalent a day.

Its overall return on capital employed came in at 20%, it said.

“There aren’t many sectors generating the type of free cash flow that energy is right now,” said

Jeff Wyll,

an analyst at investment firm Neuberger Berman, which has invested in Chevron. “The sector really can’t be ignored. Given the supply-demand balance, you have to have some things go wrong here to see a pullback in oil prices.”

Even so, institutional investors have shown limited interest so far in returning to the energy sector, after years of poor returns and heightened concerns about their environmental impact prompted large financiers to sell off their stakes in oil-and-gas companies or stop investing in drillers outright.

Pete Bowden,

global head of industrial, energy and infrastructure banking at

Jefferies Financial Group Inc.,

said energy companies in the S&P 500 index are throwing off 12% of the group’s free-cash flow, but only account for about 5% of the index’s weighting—an indication their stock prices are lagging behind.

Investors’ concerns around environmental, social and governance-related issues are a constraint on the share prices of energy companies, “yet the earnings power of these businesses is superior to the earnings power of companies in other sectors,” he said.

Chevron and others have faced criticism from the Biden administration and others that they are giving priority to shareholder returns over pumping oil and gas at a time when global supplies are tight and Americans are feeling pain at the pump. On Thursday, the White House assailed Chevron’s $75 billion buyout program, saying the payout was proof the company could boost production but was choosing to reward investors instead.

Pierre Breber,

Chevron’s finance chief, said the company expects oil prices to be volatile but within a range needed to sustain its dividend and investments. There are some optimistic signs, he added, including that the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter, at 2.9%.

“Supply is tight. Oil-field services are near capacity, and we continue to have sanctions on Russian production,” Mr. Breber said. “You’re seeing international flights out of China are way up, and low unemployment in the U.S.”

Mr. Breber said Chevron’s output in the Permian this year is expected to grow at a slower pace, around 10%, because it has exhausted much of its inventory of wells that it had drilled but hadn’t brought into production.

Exxon, which has typically posted quarterly earnings on the same day as Chevron, will report Tuesday. Analysts expect it will also post record profit for 2022, according to FactSet.

Both companies expect to slow their output growth this year in the Permian, considered their growth engine. The two U.S. oil majors, which had been growing output faster in the U.S. than most independent shale producers, are beginning to step up their focus on shareholder returns and allow output growth to ease, said Neal Dingmann, an analyst at Truist Securities.

“This has all been driven by investor requirements,” Mr. Dingmann said.

Write to Collin Eaton at collin.eaton@wsj.com