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Companies hope to capitalize on growing market

Grainwave, a Belgian-Style white ale, THC infused, non-alcoholic cannabis beer at the Ceria Brewing Co. at the Keef Cola facility December 13, 2018.

Andy Cross | Denver Post | Getty Images

You can smoke it, vape it and eat it. Now as more U.S. states legalize recreational marijuana, companies are betting people will also want to drink it.

Weed-infused beverages are popping up in more places, with major drink makers including Pabst Blue Ribbon and Constellation already pushing into the market. Unlike CBD-infused drinks that have been more widely available in dozens of states, cannabis or weed drinks contain marijuana’s psychoactive component, tetrahydrocannabinol, or THC, which gets people high and is still federally prohibited in the United States.

In recent years, new emulsion technology has made it possible to mix THC into an array of beverages. Now, drink makers are betting that people who don’t want to smoke or vape marijuana or drink alcohol because of health or social reasons can find an alternative in cannabis beverages. 

And the market is getting crowded, even in its infancy, according to Amanda Reiman, vice president of public policy research at New Frontier Data, a cannabis firm that tracks consumer habits. 

“The choice for consumers was not as wide in the past but now we’ve seen dozens of companies get involved in the cannabis beverage space,” Reiman said.

Leveraging its beer and spirits manufacturing experience, Pabst Blue Ribbon has begun selling a lineup of non-alcoholic “High Seltzers.” Each 12-ounce can contains 10 milligrams of THC, which the company says “is the right amount to have a good time.” Flavors come in pineapple, mango, strawberry and lemon. They’re sold online or at dispensaries in states where medical or recreational marijuana use is allowed. 

Other beer and spirit companies to have entered this space include Anheuser-Busch, the maker of Budweiser; Constellation Brands, which makes Modelo Especial and Corona Extra; Lagunitas Brewing Company; and Ceria. The lineup of weed drinks contains varied doses of THC — generally anywhere from 2.5 milligrams to 10 milligrams – mixed only with water-based drinks. The mixing of cannabis and alcohol is prohibited in most states that allow cannabis use. 

Brightfield Group, a cannabis research agency, estimates that cannabis beverages overall will account for $1 billion in U.S. sales by 2025.

Getting into the weeds 

While beverages only represent about 1% of overall legal cannabis sales in the U.S., that just means the market has a lot of space to grow, according to Travis Tharp, the CEO of Keef Brands, which makes an array of cannabis products.

“There have been multiple false starts for anointing beverages the next big thing,” Tharp said. “But I think we’ve gotten to a point where we are showing that the year over year growth is something that is substantial.”

Keef, based in New York, has expanded to eight states where recreational weed has been legalized, as well as Canada and Puerto Rico. Among the company’s products is a 100-milligram mocktail that Tharp compared to a hard bottle of alcohol.

“You should not drink a full bottle of this in your first serving,” Tharp said. “You wouldn’t drink a full bottle of vodka.”

There are experts who worry such higher-dose THC in drinks could pose serious health risks. Despite cannabis beverage brands often being touted for their wellness benefits or for being hangover free, there has been a lack of government-funded research about them. 

Too much of anything can be bad, doctors warn. 

“THC can increase the risk of paranoia, anxiety, and even psychosis and hallucinations,” said Charles Michael White, department head of the University of Connecticut’s School of Pharmacy. “The higher the dose, the greater the risk and severity of these adverse effects.”

White said consuming cannabis in liquid form still comes with a lot of unknowns. It falls somewhere in between inhaling cannabis, which gives an immediate high that leaves the body quickly, and eating it, which remains in the bloodstream longer for a slower, calmer high.

With cannabis beverages, he said the high can be intense and unpredictable, especially if too much of the drink is consumed in a short amount of time. 

A need for more research

Tharp added that the market for THC beverages has been hampered by a lack of research into responsible consumption, as well as few standardized policies and best practices. 

“There’s not a lot of research that can be performed on it because cannabis is a schedule one drug in the U.S.,” he said, adding that this is one of the main roadblocks keeping the industry from joining the mainstream more quickly. 

A schedule one drug is a substance that has no currently accepted medical use in the United States and has a high potential for abuse.

Reiman, of New Frontier Data, agrees. If legalized federally, she said the Food and Drug Administration would be studying and regulating THC beverages. That could put wary customers at ease and entice new ones to take a sip. 

In addition to limiting research, today’s federal cannabis prohibition means cannabis beverage makers are largely operating under a patchwork of state laws, creating a disjointed supply chain. This keeps many companies from growing in a significant way, which has led to some pulling back on their efforts in the market and others giving up completely. 

Earlier this year, Anheuser-Busch announced it ended a partnership associated with manufacturing CBD and THC beverages. The company said it remains focused on commercializing CBD-infused non-alcoholic beverages in Canada and will continue its research on non-alcohol beverages containing THC through its subsidiary Fluent, according to Hemp Today. Anheuser-Busch did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment. 

With states including New York and New Jersey formulating plans for recreational markets, there’s still potential for reaching more consumers. And as laws evolve in more mature state markets like California, there’s a push for cannabis beverages to be sold alongside alcohol at lounges, clubs, restaurants and even grocers.

Reiman said increasing social acceptance of recreational marijuana will also be what mainstreams THC beverages.  

“Consumers are looking for something that will replace an alcoholic beverage but allow them to consume it in the same manner and environment in which they’re used to consuming alcoholic beverages,” she said. 

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Cramer’s week ahead: Brace for negativity

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday advised investors to brace themselves against Wall Street’s negativity next week as concerns over a possible recession mount.

“I do believe that our economy’s headed for a slowdown — that’s just what rate hikes do. But a slowdown doesn’t necessarily translate into a horrific, crash-landing recession. … There are many ways this situation can play out that don’t end in a full-blown recession,” the “Mad Money” host said.

“Regardless of what happens next week, Wall Street’s going to remain in good news, bad news mode. … So, perhaps you should steel yourself for the negativity,” he later added.

Key parts of the Treasury yield have inverted this week, raising concerns that the economy is headed for a recession. Yield curve inversions have historically preceded recessions but are not guaranteed indicators.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% on Friday while the S&P 500 gained 0.34%. The Nasdaq increased 0.29%.

Cramer also previewed next week’s slate of companies reporting quarterly earnings, as well as other events relevant to the market.

All earnings and revenue estimates are courtesy of FactSet.

Monday: U.S. Census Bureau’s Durable Goods report

  • Report release at 10:00 a.m. ET

“If it’s strong, I can tell you it will be pronounced as the last good number” of a cycle on its last legs, Cramer said. “If it’s bad, it’ll be the first bad number of the apocalypse.”

Tuesday: Acuity Brands, Greenbrier Companies

Acuity Brands

  • Q2 2022 earnings release at 6 a.m. ET; conference call at 8 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $2.38
  • Projected revenue: $885 million

“Last time they did well, but thanks to the inverted yield curve, this time if they say things are good, they will be branded as hopeless optimists on their conference call unless they tell a truly depressing story,” Cramer said.

Greenbrier Companies

  • Q2 2022 earnings release; conference call on Wednesday at 11 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 19 cents
  • Projected revenue: $576 million

Cramer said that he’ll be keeping “plummeting freight rates” in mind when reviewing the company’s earnings. “I don’t think it’s customer demand sinking but supply of drivers rising,” he said.

Wednesday: Federal Reserve March meeting notes, Levi Strauss

Federal Reserve

  • March 15 – 16 meeting minutes release at 2 p.m. ET

“Those notes come from a period before the collapse in transportation rates, and that’s something that can reduce inflation all on its own. … Be mindful that [the minutes are] old,” Cramer said.

Levi Strauss

  • Q1 2022 earnings release; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 42 cents
  • Projected revenue: $1.55 billion

Cramer said he’s interested in finding out whether rising cost of cotton has affected Levi Strauss’ gross margins.

Thursday: Constellation Brands, Conagra Brands

Cramer said he liked the juxtaposition of the two brands: Constellation’s brands include names like Corona and Mi Campo while Conagra’s portfolio includes brands like Slim Jim and Earth Balance.

Constellation Brands

  • Q4 2022 earnings release before the bell; conference call at 10:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $2.09
  • Projected revenue: $2.02 billion

Conagra Brands

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 7:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 9:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 58 cents
  • Projected revenue: $2.84 billion

Friday: Baker Hughes’ North American rig count

  • Release at 1 p.m. ET weekly

“The oils are arguably the last remaining strong group besides the recession-proof utilities, and they love that they can make a ton of money holding down production,” Cramer said.

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Tequila could overtake vodka as America’s top liquor as sales boom

An employee pours tequila into the popular Mountain Dew Baja Blast frozen drink at the new Taco Bell Cantina in Brookline, MA.

John Tlumacki | Boston Globe | Getty Images

Tequila could soon overtake vodka as America’s favorite liquor, fueled by consumers’ desire for pricey bottles of agave-based spirits.

Tequila and mezcal was the second-fastest growing spirits category in 2021, trailing only premixed cocktails. Agave-based spirits saw sales climb 30.1% compared with the prior year to $5.2 billion, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the U.S.

It was also the second-largest category by revenue behind No. 1 vodka, which has been the top-selling spirit in the U.S. since the 1970s. At $7.3 billion in revenue, vodka is still selling roughly $2 billion more annually than tequila and mezcal, but agave-based spirits could be on track to outstrip it in just a few years.

For more evidence of the trend, look no further than casinos. Julian Cox, renowned bartender and executive director of beverage and corporate mixologist for MGM Resorts International, said total sales of vodka and tequila are running neck and neck at the hospitality giant.

“Nobody could believe it,” he said.

Using volume as a measure, vodka still remains king. According to DISCUS, the liquor sold 78.1 million cases in 2021, more than double the volume of the next category: premixed cocktails. Tequila and mezcal scored a distant fourth at 26.8 million cases.

High-end tequilas are helping drive growth for the category, according to Christine LoCascio, DISCUS chief of public policy.

“It’s not just for margaritas,” LoCascio said at the trade group’s annual economic briefing on Thursday. “There are so many high-end tequilas that you can sip and savor like many other high-end products, like whiskeys and cognacs and bourbons and high-end rums as well.”

Diageo CEO Ivan Menezes echoed that sentiment on the company’s recent earnings call. The distiller owns two upscale tequila brands: Don Julio and Casamigos.

“The category’s appeal across demographics is significant,” he said. “It has crossed over. The multicultural growth is very strong. It cuts across age segments, it cuts across gender, it cuts across dayparts, the occasion and the nature of drinks. It’s not just shots and margaritas as it used to be many years ago.”

The Crown Royal owner is forecasting that tequila sales will expand faster than the broader spirits industry for the next five to 10 years. In the first half of its fiscal 2022, it saw tequila sales surge 56% over the year-earlier period.

Tequila is also helping the spirits industry steal customers from beer. Tony Abou-Ganim, celebrity mixologist and author of “Vodka Distilled,” created the beverage programs for T-Mobile Arena and Allegiant Stadium, both in Las Vegas. The sports venues have margaritas on the menu, made with fresh ingredients and 100% agave tequila.

“A lot of people think when they go to an arena or stadium, ‘I’m just going to drink beer,’ and our feeling was, if we put a better margarita in their hands, they’re going to buy margaritas. And that’s proven to be the case,” Abou-Ganim said.

DISCUS’s LoCascio also acknowledged that high-profile celebrity launches have helped draw attention to the category.

A host of celebrities have rolled out their own tequila and mezcal brands, including both actor and former professional wrestler Dwayne Johnson and model Kendall Jenner last year. In addition to hopping on the agave bandwagon, they’re hoping to emulate the success of George Clooney’s Casamigos tequila, which was sold to Diageo for $1 billion in 2017. Last year, Constellation Brands invested in “Breaking Bad” co-stars Aaron Paul and Bryan Cranston’s Dos Hombres mezcal for an undisclosed amount.

Mezcal’s growth potential

About 98% of agave-based spirits’ $5.2 billion sales were from tequila, which is only made from the blue agave plant. Mezcal is a much broader label, applying to any spirit made using dozens of kinds of agave.

“[Mezcal] is growing, but it’s still a very small portion of that broader category,” LoCascio said.

MGM’s Cox is bullish on the future of mezcal, citing the wide variety of flavors and taste profiles. “Mezcal is like a flavor bomb,” he said. “For cocktail making, if you use it in the right medium, you’ve got a lot of flavor.”

Julian Cox

Source: MGM Resorts International

Once consumers try cocktails made with mezcal, the next step for category promoters is to introduce them to spirits made with all of the different kinds of agave.

Abou-Ganim said younger consumers are leading the charge, eager to expand their taste horizons. There’s a geographic element to its growth as well. Cox, who was previously based in Los Angeles but now works in Las Vegas, said most visitors to Sin City remain largely uninformed about mezcal.

Mezcal is seen as authentic to its roots and tradition, appealing to purists like Cox and Abou-Ganim. Mexico has placed regulations on what distillers can call mezcal, limiting production to certain states in the country. (Uncertified products can be sold in the U.S. labeled as “agave spirits.”)

“They can’t make a lot of mezcal, and that’s the beauty and the art of it,” said Abou-Ganim.

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Four takeaways as child tax credit kicks off this month

A woman wears a face mask while shopping for a baby shower gift during the Covid-19 pandemic, at Madison’s Niche boutique in Huntington, New York on April 21, 2021.

Alejandra Villa Loarca | Newsday | Getty Images

Child tax credit payments are an “underappreciated stimulus” that could lift sales across the retail, restaurant and travel industries — especially as shoppers emerge from the pandemic and get ready for back-to-school season, according to a research note published Tuesday by Cowen analysts.

The monthly payments, which begin Thursday, could benefit a wide range of companies, from grocers including Walmart to fast food chains such as Jack in the Box, according to the note.

Families have gotten child tax credits for years, but the American Rescue Plan made several key changes. It increased the amount per child from $2,000 to $3,000 for those between the ages of 6 and 17, and to $3,600 for each child under age 6. It qualified low-income families who have little or no taxable income. And it changed the way it is paid out, so that families receive half the money through direct deposits that run from July to December. Families will receive the other half after filing taxes.

That will translate to $250 or $300 per child each month. Families who make up to $150,000 for a couple or $112,500 for a family with a single parent, called a head of household; or $75,000 as an individual taxpayer will get the full amount. The payments will be phased out above that amount — but even those who get less money will receive advance payments.

Parents and caretakers of nearly 90% of children in the U.S. will receive the payments, according to the Internal Revenue Service.

Here are four major takeaways from the analysts:

More dollars mean more spending

The child tax credit will amount to an estimated $150 billion in stimulus over the next year, according to Cowen. Analysts at the equity research firm say the extra dollars may surprise both Americans and the economy at large, calling it “an underappreciated catalyst for discretionary consumer spend.”

As families get the money, Cowen predicts, they will spend it on food for the home, dining out and shopping online. The analysts named retailers and restaurants that are best-positioned to attract those dollars. On the grocery side, they pointed to Walmart, Target and Grocery Outlet. Among fast-food chains, they named Jack in the Box, Wingstop, Papa John’s and Darden, based on a survey of consumers that looked at their incomes and what places they frequent. And among e-commerce companies, they named Amazon.

Coinciding with ‘pent up demand’

Many families have already ramped up spending on new shoes and clothes as they emerge from their homes after getting Covid-19 vaccinations. Analysts from Cowen said that child tax credit dollars will likely feed into that spending spree.

Already, some retail industry watchers have predicted an usually hot back-to-school season as families crave a new start and a sense of more normalcy — and potentially channel that toward fresh notebooks and first-day-of-school outfits.

Cowen analysts expect that retailers that cater to back-to-school or team sports are positioned well to attract child tax credit dollars, including Walmart, Kohl’s, Foot Locker, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Nike. They also said retailers that focus on value, such as off-price retailers Burlington, Ross and T.J. Maxx, could get a boost since they cater to low-income families that are receiving child tax credit payments. They also said American Eagle Outfitters is in a good spot to attract the payments, as it caters to styles that teens crave, such as looser-fitting denim and casualwear.

Spilling over into adult categories

Parents, grandparents and other caretakers may spend some of the child tax credit dollars on themselves in the form of beer, cigarettes and plane tickets, according to Cowen.

Analysts estimated that the tobacco industry could pick up about $1.2 billion and alcoholic beverages could pick up roughly $2.7 billion of the estimated $150 billion impact of the child tax credit. That could mean good news for tobacco company Turning Point Brands and beer industry players, Constellation Brands and Boston Beer.

Cowen estimated air travel will get an approximately $1.15 billion bump from child tax credits, as the July payments arrive just in time for vacation season. That will be most noticeable for airlines that cater to leisure travel and lower prices, such as Allegiant, Frontier and Spirit, the analysts predicted.

A renewal looks likely

The monthly payments will end in December — but Cowen analysts are betting that they will be renewed. In the note, they said they expect the one-year program will be extended through 2025 through a reconciliation bill.

In the note, the analysts cited the size and scope of the government program, which is intended to fight childhood poverty. They called it a “huge policy change” that acts as “universal basic income for low-middle income parents.”

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Here are analysts’ top picks

Chemdawg marijuana plants grow at a facility in Smiths Falls, Ontario, Canada October 29, 2019.

Blair Gable | Reuters

Reddit traders had a new target this week: cannabis stocks.

Before falling back on Thursday, shares of Tilray rallied over 50% on Wednesday, while Aurora Cannabis jumped around 20%. Both stocks then tumbled, but remain higher since the start of the week.

The WallStreetBets Reddit thread has shone a light on a sector that analysts have been watching for some time, describing it a “big long-term opportunity.”

In a recent note, analysts from Piper Sandler said cannabis could become a $115 billion market by 2030, if recreational use is legalized at a federal level. Even if legalization is not U.S.-wide, the industry potential is still “attractive,” reaching $50 billion by 2030, the investment bank added. Recreational cannabis use has now been legalized in 15 U.S. states.

Of analysts’ top weed stocks, one in particular was popular with three of investment firms, while Goldman Sachs noted a company that has been “underestimated” by investors.

Here are the investment firms’ top cannabis picks.

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