Tag Archives: Commodity/Financial Market News

EU Likely to Approve G-7 Cap on Russian Oil Price in Two Steps

BERLIN—The European Union has advanced work on a price cap for Russian oil under an approach that keeps the U.S.-led effort on track but holds off on final approval.

EU member states have agreed on a two-stage approach to the international price cap on Russian oil, which is being developed within the Group of Seven industrial economies. Member states signed off on the legislation needed to implement the measures on Wednesday morning but will hold off approving it until the rest of the G-7 is ready, diplomats and officials said.

The price-cap decision is part of an eighth package of sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. The measures will come into effect Thursday morning.

The EU approach reflects concern among some member states about the proposal, which would place a maximum price on what can be paid for Russian seaborne oil. Hesitation is greatest in EU members with large shipping sectors, including Greece, Cyprus and Malta.

The emerging EU approach means the price-cap proposal remains on track to enter into force, but raises fresh questions about how quickly it can be implemented.

Washington has pushed the international oil-price cap as a way of minimizing the Kremlin’s revenue from foreign oil sales without inflating oil prices by preventing oil sales to Asia and Africa. The idea is to set a maximum price at which shippers from G-7 countries may legally transport Russian oil to countries in Asia and Africa. The plan would also permit those companies to buy insurance for Russian oil cargoes, a critical aspect of the shipping industry. The G-7 hopes other countries will join the system.

The G-7 still must agree on the details of the price cap, including the price at which to set the cap, its precise implementation methods and how many other countries they need to join the G-7 in launching the cap. U.S. lawmakers are advocating increasing penalties for foreign buyers who don’t abide by the price cap.

U.S. officials have been flexible about how the other G-7 countries decide to implement the cap.

The EU formally backed the measure at the G-7, but European officials have repeatedly raised concerns about how the mechanism would function and its effectiveness in crimping Russia’s oil revenues.

Greece, Malta and Cyprus have raised concerns that banning EU companies from carrying Russian oil that is sold at rates above the price cap could hurt their economies. They fear losing business to countries that stay outside the mechanism, and they have also raised concerns that some G-7 countries may not enforce the price cap as rigorously as the EU, diplomats said.

At a meeting Tuesday evening, EU ambassadors agreed on a proposal under which they could agree on the legislation, but only formally approve the mechanism at a later date if the other G-7 countries have cleared the way to implement the cap system.

That means the 27 EU member states will need to revisit the three central elements of the price cap proposal. First they would need to sign off an exemption into the June sanctions package that banned EU companies from providing insurance on Russian oil transport after Dec. 5. They would also need to implement a ban on EU shippers transporting Russian oil priced above the cap, and then they would need to sign off on the G-7’s price cap.

The European Union proposed a ban on Russian crude within six months; Moscow and Kyiv accused each other of breaking a cease-fire in Mariupol. Photo: Julien Warnand/Shutterstock

To assuage the concerns of Malta, the ambassadors agreed Tuesday to carry out an impact assessment of the oil price cap mechanism when it enters into force. That will take into account the price cap’s “expected results, international adherence to and informal alignment with the price cap scheme” of non-G-7 countries, according to diplomats. It would also assess its potential impact on the EU.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive body, last week proposed to lay the legal basis for the price cap mechanism as part of a new package of sanctions it was placing on Russia in response to the Kremlin’s claim that it was annexing four regions of Ukraine.

Those sanctions would place an import ban on €7 billion, equivalent to about $7 billion, of Russian sales to the EU and would ban the export to Russia of a number of goods that can be used by its military in the war in Ukraine.

It will also target around three dozen people and companies involved in the latest annexations by Russia of Ukrainian regions.

The EU’s backing for the price cap is critical because the bloc plays a critical role in both the shipping industry and in shipping insurance sector. Sanctions must be approved by all 27 member states.

Under a sanctions package passed in June, the EU agreed to place an oil embargo on Russian seaborne oil by Dec. 5 and, on the same date, ban the provision of services, including shipping insurance, for Russian oil sold outside the bloc. The insurance measure could have choked off oil supplies to Asia and Africa, pushing oil prices higher.

EU diplomats have said that if the G-7 price cap is fully ready and detailed well in advance of Dec. 5, then they can come back and sign off the measures. If the G-7 mechanism is only finalized a few days before the December deadline—or isn’t in place until after it—some member states may demand a transition period to fully implement the measure.

Only Australia has pledged to join the G-7 system. European and U.S. officials say it is unlikely that India, China and some other top buyers of Russian oil will formally participate. Still, U.S. officials hope that by agreeing the price cap, they will at least drive down the price that other countries are willing to pay for Russian oil.

Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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He nailed three big S&P 500 moves this year. Here’s where this strategist sees stocks headed next, with beaten down names to buy.

A Wall Street hat trick may not be on the cards, with stocks in the red for Wednesday.

A two-day rally was never a guaranteed exit out of the bear woods anyway, as some say signs of a durable bottom are still missing.

Enter our call of the day, from the chief market technician at TheoTrade, Jeffrey Bierman, who has made a string of prescient calls on what has been a roller coaster year for the index thus far. He’s also a professor of finance at Loyola University Chicago and DePaul University.

Bierman, who uses quant and fundamental analysis to determine market direction, sees the S&P 500
SPX,
-1.62%
finishing the year between 4,000 and 4,200, maybe around 4,135. “Fourth-quarter seasonality favors bulls following a weak third quarter.  Not to mention most stocks are priced for no growth,” he told MarketWatch in a Monday interview.

In December 2021, he forecast the S&P 500 might see a 20% decline within six months, toward 3,900 — it hit 3,930 in early May. In June, he forecast a rally and recovery to 4,300 — the index hit 4,315 by mid-August.

Speaking to MarketWatch on Aug. 25, Bierman saw a retest of around 3,600 for the index, citing an often rough September for stocks. It closed out last month at a new 2022 low of 3,585.

“I think we’re going to end up for the quarter. [The market is] deeply oversold and some stocks are completely mispriced in terms of their valuation metrics,” said Bierman, who is looking squarely at retail and technology sectors.

“The valuations on half the chip stocks are trading below a multiple of seven. I’ve never seen that ever…but what that means is when the semiconductor sector comes back, the multiple expansion is gonna be like a volcanic eruption to the upside,” he said of the sector known for its boom/bust cycles.

For example, he owns Intel
INTC,
-2.53%,
which hit a five-year low on Friday. Eventually, the company that has invested $20 billion in a new U.S. plant will come roaring back alongside rivals like Advanced Micro
AMD,
-4.65%.
“People will look back on this and go ‘Oh, my God, I can’t believe Intel was at five times earnings,’ which is insanity for this stock.”

For the S&P 500 as a whole next twelve months price/earnings is currently 16.13 times, so Intel’s would be less than half of the broader index, according to FactSet

As for retail, he’s been looking at Urban Outfitters
URBN,
-1.06%,
Macy’s
M,
-1.94%
and Nordstrom
JWN,
-0.67%,
all places where millennials don’t shop, but the middle class does, with the all-important holiday shopping period dead ahead.

“There are 100,000 people being hired to work part time at these companies, and their margins are not coming down at all,” with no markdowns and decent sales, he said, noting those companies are being priced at a multiple of 5 times forward earnings.

“It means that you don’t think that Macy’s can put together for the Christmas quarter a comparative quarter, year over year of greater than 5%? If you don’t then don’t buy it, but I do,” said Bierman. “That’s why I’m willing to stick my neck out and buy these things. I bought Abercrombie & Fitch
ANF,
-3.78%
at 10 times earnings…I’ve never seen it that low.”

For those who aren’t comfortable picking stocks, he says they can still get exposure through exchange-traded funds, such as SPDR S&P Retail
XRT,
-2.58%
or the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
XLK,
-1.70%.

Bierman adds that investors need to be careful not to be overly concentrated in the top stocks, given “10 stocks accounted for 45% of the Nasdaq and the fact that 25% of the S&P almost accounted for about 50% of the S&P movement.”

“Everbody’s concentrated in 10 stocks that can still fall another 30% or 40%, like Apple and Microsoft. The idea of concentration risk is that everybody owns Apple, everybody owns Amazon,” he said.

And that could force the hand of passive and active managers heavily invested in those big names, driving a 10% drop for markets that “washes away all other stocks.”

The markets

Stocks
DJIA,
-1.21%

SPX,
-1.62%

COMP,
-2.19%
are in the red, and bond yields
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.783%

TMUBMUSD02Y,
4.199%
are up, along with the dollar
DXYN,
.
Silver
SI00,
-5.00%
is retracing some of this week’s big gains, and bitcoin
BTCUSD,
-2.62%
is also off, trading at just over $20,000. Hong Kong stocks
HSI,
+5.90%
surged 6% in a catch-up move following a holiday. New Zealand’s central bank hiked rates a half point, the fifth increase in a row.

The buzz

Oil prices
CL.1,
-0.02%

BRN00,
+0.28%
are flat as OPEC+ reportedly agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day. Some say don’t be too impressed by any output reduction.

Amazon
AMZN,
-2.34%
will reportedly freeze corporate hires in its retail business for the remainder of 2022.

Mortgage applications fell to the lowest pace in 25 years in the latest week.

The ADP private-sector payrolls report showed 208,000 jobs added in September. The trade deficit narrowed, which should be good news for third-quarter GDP. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index is due at 10 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will also speak.

Expect the spotlight to stay on Twitter
TWTR,
-2.53%
after Tesla
TSLA,
-5.16%
CEO Elon Musk committed to the $44 billion deal. But will it feel like a win once he owns it?

Plus: Elon Musk’s legal battle with Twitter may be over, but his war with the SEC continues

EU countries agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia after the illegal annexation of four Ukraine regions. Those moves will include an expected price cap on Russian oil.

South Korea’s missile fired in response to North Korea’s weapon launch over Japan, crashed and burned.

Best of the web

Russians fleeing Putin’s mobilization are finding haven in poor, remote countries.

Consumers are throwing away perfectly good food because of ‘best before’ labels.

The CEO of an election software company has been arrested on accusations of ID theft.

Top tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern:

Ticker Security name
TSLA,
-5.16%
Tesla
GME,
-7.59%
GameStop
AMC,
-9.56%
AMC Entertainment
TWTR,
-2.53%
Twitter
NIO,
-5.92%
NIO
AAPL,
-1.77%
Apple
APE,
-8.40%
AMC Entertainment preferred shares
BBBY,
-8.52%
Bed Bath & Beyond
AMZN,
-2.34%
Amazon
DWAC,
-0.64%
Digital World Acquisition Corp.
The chart

More market-bottom talk:


Twitter

Random reads

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Dow Slips Again After Entering Bear Market

The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 fell again Tuesday as investors parsed a spate of economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials.

All three indexes spent much of the morning in the green, but it didn’t last. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which entered a bear market on Monday, fell 125.82 points, or 0.4%, to 29134.99. That marked its sixth consecutive day in the red.

The broad S&P 500 slipped 7.75 points, or 0.2%, to 3647.29, closing at its lowest level of the year for the second day in a row. The S&P is also now down for six days in a row, its longest losing streak since February 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 26.58 points, or 0.2%, to 10829.50.

Tuesday’s declines prolong a brutal year for financial markets. Stocks and bonds have both dropped sharply this year, an unusual tandem that reflects just how unnerved many investors feel. The Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq are all on pace for their worst first nine months of a year since 2002.

Stubbornly high inflation has roiled markets since the start of the year. The Federal Reserve in response has been raising interest rates to try to cool the economy, stoking fears that the central bank will tip the U.S. into recession. Some investors hoped this summer that the rate increases might be coming to an end, and stocks rebounded briefly. Now, investors are coming to grips with the idea that bigger interest-rate increases—and weaker global economic growth—are here to stay for quite a while.

Neel Kashkari,

president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, reaffirmed the central bank’s resolve to bring down persistent and elevated inflation in a Tuesday interview with The Wall Street Journal. “There’s a lot of tightening in the pipeline,” Mr. Kashkari said, adding that the Fed is “committed to restoring price stability” but also recognizes “there is a risk of overdoing it.” 

A sharp rise in interest rates has been weighing on stocks, said

Mimi Duff,

managing director at GenTrust, a registered investment adviser with about $3 billion in assets. “I think we need to start seeing the rates stabilize before we can bottom out in equities,” she added. 

As markets react to interest-rate hikes and the threat of a recession, stocks have entered bear-market territory. WSJ’s Gunjan Banerji explains what it takes to push stocks back into a bull market and why it is hard to predict when they’ll turn around. Illustration: Jacob Reynolds

“The equity market is paying attention to this perpetual ratcheting higher of terminal rates in the U.S.,” said

Charles Diebel,

head of fixed income at Mediolanum International Funds. “The more the terminal rate goes up—while necessary to deal with the inflation threat—the bigger the economic downturn will be.”

On the economic front, data Tuesday showed that companies reduced durable goods orders for a second straight month. Home prices continued to notch big year-over-year gains, but the pace of that growth slowed. Home prices fell month over month.

However, consumers are growing more optimistic about the U.S. economy. The Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index increased in September for the second month in a row, lifted in part by falling gas prices.

Bond prices continued to fall, pushing up yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.963%, once again hitting its highest level since 2010.

Traders worked on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday.



Photo:

REUTERS

Oil prices rebounded after slumping Monday to their lowest level since January. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose 2.6% to $86.27 a barrel. 

Global stock markets were mixed. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged down 0.1%.

In Asia, stocks closed mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 0.5% while China’s Shanghai Composite rose 1.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index ended the day close to flat.

Write to Will Horner at william.horner@wsj.com

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Stocks crashing? No, but here’s why this bear market feels so painful — and what you can do about it.

Hashtags about a stock-market crash may be trending on Twitter, but the selloff that has sent U.S. equities into a bear market has been relatively orderly, say market professionals. But it’s likely to get more volatile — and painful — before the market stabilizes.

It was indeed a white-knuckle ride for investors Friday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-1.62%
plunged more than 800 points and the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-1.72%
traded below its 2022 closing low from mid-June before trimming losses ahead of the bell. The Dow sank to its lowest close since November 2020, leaving it on the brink of joining the S&P 500 in a bear market.

Why is the stock market falling?

Rising interest rates are the main culprit. The Federal Reserve is raising its benchmark interest rate in historically big increments — and plans to keep raising them — as it attempts to pull inflation back to its 2% target. As a result, Treasury yields have soared. That means investors can earn more than in the past by parking money in government paper, raising the opportunity cost of investing in riskier assets like stocks, corporate bonds, commodities or real estate.

Historically low interest rates and ample liquidity provided by the Fed and other central banks in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic helped drive demand for riskier assets such as stocks.

That unwinding is part of the reason why the selloff, which isn’t limited to stocks, feels so harsh, said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for the SPDR business at State Street Global Advisors.

“They’ve struggled with the idea that stocks are down, bonds are down, real estate is starting to suffer. From my viewpoint it’s the fact that interest rates are rising so rapidly, resulting in declines across the board and volatility across the board,” he said, in a phone interview.

How bad is it?

The S&P 500 index ended Friday down 23% from its record close of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3 this year.

That’s a hefty pullback, but it’s not out of the ordinary. In fact, it’s not even as bad as the typical bear-market retreat. Analysts at Wells Fargo studied 11 past S&P 500 bear markets since World War II and found that the downdrafts, on average, lasted 16 months and produced a negative 35.1% bear-market return.

A decline of 20% or more (a widely used definition of a bear market) has occurred in 9 of the 42 years going back to 1980, or about once every five years, said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, in a note.

“Significant declines are a regular and recurring feature of the stock market,” he wrote. “In that context, this one is no different. And since it is no different, then like every other decline, we can reasonably expect the markets to bounce back at some point.”

What’s ahead?

Many market veterans are bracing for further volatility. The Fed and its chairman, Jerome Powell, signaled after its September meeting that policy makers intend to keep raising interest rates aggressively into next year and to not cut them until inflation has fallen. Powell has warned that getting inflation under control will be painful, requiring a period of below-trend economic growth and rising unemployment.

Many economists contend the Fed can’t whip inflation without sinking the economy into a recession. Powell has signaled that a harsh downturn can’t be ruled out.

“Until we get clarity on where the Fed is likely to end” its rate-hiking cycle, “I would expect to get more volatility,” Arone said.

Meanwhile, there may be more shoes to drop. Third-quarter corporate earnings reporting season, which gets under way next month, could provide another source of downside pressure on stock prices, analysts said.

“We’re of the view that 2023 earnings estimates have to continue to decline,” wrote Ryan Grabinski, investment strategist at Strategas, in a note. “We have our 2023 recession odds at about 50% right now, and in a recession, earnings decline by an average of around 30%. Even with some extreme scenarios—like the 2008 financial crisis when earnings fell 90% — the median decline is still 24%.”

The consensus 2023 earnings estimate has only come down 3.3% from its June highs, he said, “and we think those estimates will be revised lower, especially if the odds of a 2023 recession increase from here,” Grabinski wrote.

What to do?

Arone said sticking with high quality value stocks that pay dividends will help investors weather the storm, as they tend to do better during periods of volatility. Investors can also look to move closer to historical benchmark weightings, using the benefits of diversification to protect their portfolio while waiting for opportunities to put money to work in riskier parts of the market.

But investors need to think differently about their portfolios as the Fed moves from the era of easy money to a period of higher interest rates and as quantitative easing gives way to quantitative tightening, with the Fed shrinking its balance sheet.

“Investors need to pivot to thinking about what might benefit from tighter monetary policy,” such as value stocks, small-cap stocks and bonds with shorter maturities, he said.

How will it end?

Some market watchers argue that while investors have suffered, the sort of full-throttle capitulation that typically marks market bottoms has yet to materialize, though Friday’s selloff at times carried a whiff of panic.

The Fed’s aggressive interest rate rises have stirred market volatility, but haven’t caused a break in the credit markets or elsewhere that would give policy makers pause.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains on a rampage, soaring over the past week to multidecade highs versus major rivals in a move driven by the Fed’s policy stance and the dollar’s status as a safe place to park.

A break in the dollar’s relentless rally “would suggest to me that the tightening cycle and some of the fear — because the dollar is a haven — is starting to subside,” Arone said. “We’re not seeing that yet.”

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Why stock-market bears are eying June lows after S&P 500 falls back below 3,900

Goodbye, summer bounce.

The S&P 500 finished Friday below a crucial chart support level that’s served as a battleground in recent years, leading technical analysts to warn of a potential test of the stock market’s June lows.

“Over the last three years, the level on the [S&P 500] with the most amount of volume traded has been 3,900. It closed below that on Friday for the first time since July 18 which, in our view, opens the door down to the June lows” near 3,640, said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a Sunday note (see chart below).


BTIG

The S&P 500
SPX,
-0.72%
ended Friday at 3,873.33 — falling 0.7% in the session and 4.8% for the week for its lowest close since July 18. That left the index up 5.7% from its June 16 closing low of 3,666.77. The S&P 500 logged an intraday low for the selloff at 3,636.87 on June 17, according to FactSet.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.45%
fell 4.1% last week to end Friday at 30,822.42, while the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.90%
saw a 5.5% weekly drop to 11,448.40. Stock-index futures
ES00,
-0.19%

YM00,
-0.12%

NQ00,
-0.42%
were trading flat to slightly late Sunday.

A move back to the June lows likely won’t be a straight line, Krinsky wrote, but the lack so far of discernible “panic” in the Cboe Volatility Index
VIX,
+0.11%
futures curve and the lack of a drop to more extreme oversold conditions as measured by monthly relative strength index don’t bode well, he said.

Other analysts have noted the lack of a sharper rise in the spot VIX, often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge.” The options-based VIX ended Friday at 26.30 after trading as high as 28.42, above its long-term average near 20 but well below panic levels often seen near market bottoms above 40.

Stocks had bounced back sharply from the June lows, which had seen the S&P 500 down 23.6% from its Jan. 3 record finish at 4,796.56. Krinsky and other chart watchers had noted the S&P 500 in August completed a more-than-50% retracement of its fall from the January high to the June low — a move that in the past had not been followed by a new low.

Krinsky at the time had warned, however, against chasing the bounce, writing on Aug. 11 that the “tactical risk/reward looks poor to us here.”

Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management, had warned in a note last week that a close below 3,900 would set up a test of support at 3,835, “where the next big gap to fill in the market rests.”

Stocks fell sharply last week after a Tuesday reading on the August consumer-price index showed inflation running hotter than expected. The data cemented expectations for the Federal Reserve to deliver another supersize 75-basis-point, or 0.75-percentage-point, rise in the fed-funds rate, with some traders and analysts penciling in a 100-basis-point hike when policy makers complete a two-day meeting on Wednesday.

Preview: The Fed is ready to tell us how much ‘pain’ the economy will suffer. It still won’t hint at recession though.

The market’s bounce off its June lows came as some investors had grown more confident in a Goldilocks scenario in which the Fed’s policy tightening would wring out inflation in relatively short order. For bulls, the hope was that the Fed would be able to “pivot” away from rate increases, averting a recession.

Stubborn inflation readings have left investors to raise expectations for where they think rates will top out, heightening fears of a recession or sharp slowdown. Aggressive tightening by other major central banks has stoked fears of a broad global slowdown.

See: Can the Fed tame inflation without crushing the stock market? What investors need to know.

Hear from Ray Dalio at the Best New Ideas in Money Festival on Sept. 21 and Sept. 22 in New York. The hedge-fund pioneer has strong views on where the economy is headed.

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Can the Fed tame inflation without further crushing the stock market? What’s next for investors.

The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.

“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.

U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.

Preview: The Fed is ready to tell us how much ‘pain’ the economy will suffer. It still won’t hint at recession though.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.45%
logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&P 500
SPX,
-0.72%
dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.90%
suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.

See: Stock-market bears seen keeping upper hand as S&P 500 drops below 3,900

A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp.
FDX,
-21.40%
further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.

Read: Why FedEx’s stock plunge is so bad for the whole stock market

Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD02Y,
3.867%
soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.

Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.

The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.

Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.

Related: Do higher stock prices make it harder for the Fed to fight inflation? The short answer is ‘yes’

William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”

Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta, said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.

“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.

The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.

Recent: Fed’s Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain to households and businesses in Jackson Hole speech

The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow
DJIA,
-0.45%
skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&P 500
SPX,
-0.72%
jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.

“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”

See: Opinion: The stock market’s trend is relentlessly bearish, especially after this week’s big daily declines

Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.

“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”

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Ray Dalio says watch out for rates reaching this level, because Wall Street stocks will take a 20% hit

After that CPI shock earlier in the week, Wall Street is fielding a fresh batch of data on Thursday, with the headline retail sales number coming in stronger than expected. And a disastrous rail strike may be inverted.

But there’s no cheering up billionaire investor and hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio who in our call of the day asserts the Fed has no choice but to keep driving up interest rates, at a high price to stocks.

And he’s putting some fairly precise guesswork out there. “I estimate that a rise in rates from where they are to about 4.5% will produce about a 20% negative impact on equity prices,” Dalio said in a LinkedIn post dated Tuesday.

Some are forecasting the Fed could hike interest rates by 100 basis points next week, a move not seen since the likewise inflationary 80s. The central bank’s short-term rate hovers between 2.25% to 2.5%, but Nomura, for one, sees that rate headed to 4.75% by 2023.

But Dalio thinks interest rates could even reach the higher end of a 4.5%-to-6% range. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending, and hence the economy down with it,” he says.

Behind this prediction is the Bridgewater Associates founder belief that the market is severely underestimating where inflation will end up — at 2.6% over the next 10 years versus what he sees as 4.5% to 5% in the medium term, barring shocks.

Read: Why a single U.S. inflation report roiled global financial markets — and what comes next

As for what happens when people start losing money in the markets — the so-called “wealth effect” — he expects less spending as they and their lenders grow more cautious.

“The upshot is that it looks likely to me that the inflation rate will stay significantly above what people and the Fed want it to be (while the year-over-year inflation rate will fall), that interest rates will go up, that other markets will go down, and that the economy will be weaker than expected, and that is without consideration given to the worsening trends in internal and external conflicts and their effects.”

The markets

Stock futures
ES00,
-0.25%

YM00,
+0.02%

NQ00,
-0.48%
are slightly lower post data, as Treasury yields
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.437%

TMUBMUSD02Y,
3.852%
keep climbinging and the dollar
DXY,
-0.10%
firms up.

Oil prices
CL.1,
-1.63%
are lower, along with gold
GC00,
-0.83%.
China stocks
SHCOMP,
-1.16%

HSI,
+0.44%
slipped after the country’s central bank left rates unchanged. European natural-gas prices
GWM00,
+4.13%
are on the rise again. Bitcoin
BTCUSD,
+0.64%
is trading at just over $20,000.

The buzz

Shares of Union Pacific
UNP,
-3.69%,
Norfolk Southern 
NSC,
-2.16%
and CSX
CSX,
-1.05%
 are rallying in premarket after the White House said it has reached a tentative railway agreement with unions. No deal by Friday would mean strikes and havoc for supply chains, grain markets and even the coming holidays. Read more here.

August retail sales rose a stronger-than-expected 0.3% as Americans spent on new cars while weekly jobless claims came in lower for a fifth-straight week and import prices dropped 1%. Elsewhere, the Empire State manufacturing index perked up on the heels of a deep negative reading, but the Philly Fed factory index worsened. Industrial production and business inventories are still to come.

Adobe shares
ADBE,
+0.85%
are dropping after a report the software company is mulling a $20 billion deal to buy graphic design startup Figma .

Vitalik Buterin, one of the co-founders of Ethereum, says the so-called “merge” is done, meaning the birth of a more environmentally friendly crypto. Ethereum
ETHUSD,
-1.22%
is up just a little right now.

A new lawsuit claims Tesla
TSLA,
+3.59%
has made false promises over Autopilot and Full Self Driving features. And move over Tesla, Apple
AAPL,
+0.96%
is now Wall Street’s biggest short bet.

Ericsson
ERIC,
-3.32%

ERIC.A,
-1.78%

ERIC.B,
-3.34%
is dropping after a double downgrade at Credit Suisse, who cited inflationary headwinds. Analysts lifted Nokia
NOKIA,
-0.51%

NOK,
-0.40%
to outperform, though the stock is barely moving.

Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management went on a dip-buying spree after Tuesday’s market meltdown, scooping up chiefly Roku
ROKU,
+0.44%.

Opinion: Pinterest never considered itself a social network. Until now.

Patagonia billionaire Yvon Chouinard is donating his entire company — worth $3 billion — to the climate fight.

Best of the web

No U.S. shale rescue for Europe.

Turkey finds an extra $24.4 billion laying around.

Queue to pay respects to Queen is 2.6 miles long and counting.

The tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern Time:

Ticker Security name
TSLA,
+3.59%
Tesla
GME,
+1.01%
GameStop
AMC,
+1.95%
AMC Entertainment
BBBY,
+4.66%
Bed Bath & Beyond
HKD,
+311.78%
AMTD Digital
NIO,
-0.14%
NIO
AAPL,
+0.96%
Apple
APE,
+0.94%
AMC Entertainment preferred shares
AMZN,
+1.36%
Amazon
NVDA,
-0.02%
Nvidia
Random reads

Scientists try to teach robots comedic timing

Sausage, mozzarella, batter. Meet South Korea’s hot dog.

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

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Stocks Waver After Suffering Worst Day Since June 2020

U.S. stocks wobbled between small gains and losses Wednesday, coming off a wild day of trading spurred by a stronger-than-expected inflation report.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.1%, a day after the benchmark index plummeted 4.3% in its worst selloff since June 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1%.

The release of U.S. inflation data for August on Tuesday spurred volatile moves across asset classes. The consumer-price reading showed the core inflation index, which excludes volatile energy and food figures, increased last month from a year earlier—indicating that broad price pressures strengthened.

The hot inflation report curbed investors’ hopes the Federal Reserve might slow its aggressive pace of interest-rate increases. That led traders on Tuesday to dump stocks across all sectors, sell bonds and cryptocurrencies, and push the U.S. dollar higher.

On Wednesday, markets seemed to take data measuring U.S. suppliers’ prices in stride. The producer-price index, which measures what suppliers are charging businesses and other customers, declined 0.1% from the month before, in line with economist expectations.

“We witnessed violent moves in the market yesterday as we reprice Fed and economic risk expectations,” said

Megan Horneman,

chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors. “Today we’re absorbing such a destructive day.”

The latest U.S. inflation data curbed investors’ hopes the Federal Reserve might slow its aggressive pace of interest-rate increases.



Photo:

Julia Nikhinson/Associated Press

Some of Tuesday’s sharp market moves started to unwind Wednesday. The WSJ Dollar Index lost 0.4%, after notching its largest one-day jump since March 2020. Brent crude, which fell the day before, rose 1.3% to $94.32 a barrel.

Energy stocks rose broadly as Brent crude rebounded. The sector was the top gaining segment of the S&P 500 on Wednesday.

Among the top individual gainers in the S&P 500,

Starbucks

rose 5.8% after the coffee chain raised its longer-term financial outlook. The company now sees adjusted earnings-per-share growth over the next three years of 15% to 20%, up from its previous forecast of 10% to 12%.

Also making the index leaderboard,

Moderna

shares climbed 5.1% after its CEO told Reuters the company is open to supplying Covid vaccines to China.

Shares of railroad operators declined as a possible freight labor strike looms. The White House is assessing how other transportation providers could fill potential gaps in the nation’s freight network as labor unions and railroads continue contract talks.

Union Pacific

lost 4.9%, and

CSX

fell 3.1%.

Few market watchers were willing to suggest that volatile market moves may be in the rear-view mirror—especially until the Fed’s next meeting.

The Fed will make its next interest-rate policy decision next week. Federal-funds futures, used by traders to bet on interest-rate moves, showed a 68% chance that the central bank will lift rates by 0.75-percentage point. The data also show traders are assigning a 32% probability that the Fed will increase interest rates by 1 percentage point, according to CME Group data.

U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward climb, in another signal that investors are expecting higher interest rates.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 3.427%, from 3.422% Tuesday. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to near-term rate expectations, climbed to 3.789%, from 3.754%. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions. 

Some investors and strategists said the market may have overreacted Tuesday, especially after Fed Chairman

Jerome Powell

already said last month in Jackson Hole that the central bank must continue raising interest rates until it is confident inflation is under control.

“You’ve got this tension with dip buyers versus those who are selling the rally,” said Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research. “I think you can paint a very nice bullish picture and find plenty of evidence to buy equities, and you can paint a very nice bearish picture and find plenty of evidence to sell. That naturally means we are going to bounce around for a bit.”

Overseas, global indexes fell, following the U.S. stock market’s performance Tuesday. In Europe, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 lost 1%. London’s FTSE 100 fell 1.2%, after U.K. inflation data showed that core consumer prices ticked up to 6.3% in August, from 6.2% in July, even as inflation eased slightly overall

In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 2.5%, and the CSI 300 index of the largest stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen was down 1.1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 2.8%.

Write to Caitlin McCabe at caitlin.mccabe@wsj.com and Dave Sebastian at dave.sebastian@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Stocks Fall on Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation Data

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped more than 1,000 points Tuesday after hotter-than-expected inflation data dashed investors’ hopes that cooling price pressures would prompt the Federal Reserve to moderate its campaign of interest-rate increases.

Investors sold everything from stocks and bonds to oil and gold. All 30 stocks in the blue-chip average declined, as did all 11 sectors in the S&P 500. Only five stocks in the broad benchmark were in the green in recent trading. Facebook

 

META -9.36%

parent

Meta Platforms

dropped 8.3%,

BlackRock

declined 7.2% and

Boeing

fell 6.4%.

The 3.3% tumble in the Dow put the index on pace for its worst day since May. The S&P 500 declined 3.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 4.5% as rate-sensitive technology stocks took a heavy beating.

The Dow is off 14% in 2022, while the S&P 500 is down 17% and the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 25%.

Investors had eagerly anticipated Tuesday’s release of the consumer-price index, which provided a last major look at inflation before the central bank’s interest-rate-setting committee meets next week. Expectations for the path of monetary policy have held sway over the markets as investors factor higher rates into asset prices and try to project how well the economy will hold up as rates rise.

“It increases the probability of recession if the Fed has to move more significantly to address inflation,” said Chris Shipley, chief investment strategist for North America at Northern Trust Asset Management.

The consumer-sentiment index and the consumer-confidence index both try to measure the same thing: consumers’ feelings. WSJ explains why the Federal Reserve is keeping a close eye on consumer confidence in 2022. Illustration: Adele Morgan

The new data showed the consumer-price index rose 8.3% in August from the same month a year ago. That was down from 8.5% in July and 9.1% in June—the highest inflation rate in four decades.

The figures show inflation is easing, but at a slower pace than investors and economists had anticipated. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had been expecting consumer prices to rise 8% annually in August.

Analysts had hoped that officials would consider easing their pace of interest-rate increases if data continued to show inflation subsiding. The data undercut those hopes, seeming to settle the case for the Fed to raise rates by at least 0.75 percentage point next week. After the release, stock futures fell, bond yields rose and the dollar rallied.

Traders began to consider the possibility that the central bank will raise interest rates by a full percentage point next week.

As of Tuesday afternoon, they assigned a 28% probability to a 1-percentage-point increase at that meeting, up from a 0% chance a day earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The market-based probability of a half-percentage-point increase, by contrast, fell to 0% from 9% on Monday, according to the CME data.

The most likely scenario remained an increase of 0.75 percentage point.

Beyond next week, the suggestion that inflation is sticking around raises the possibility that the Fed might ultimately raise rates higher than markets had been anticipating.

“That’s really the challenge,” said Matt Forester, chief investment officer of Lockwood Advisors at BNY Mellon Pershing. “The Fed might have to do a lot more work in order to contain inflation.”

Food prices have surged as part of a broader pickup in U.S. inflation.



Photo:

michael reynolds/EPA/Shutterstock

Fed Chairman

Jerome Powell

said earlier this month that the central bank is squarely focused on bringing down high inflation to prevent it from becoming entrenched as it did in the 1970s.

The reaction to the new inflation reading could be seen across asset classes.

The communication services, technology and consumer discretionary sectors of the S&P 500 all fell more than 4.5%. Semiconductor stocks were particularly hard hit:

Western Digital,

Nvidia,

Advanced Micro Devices

and

Micron Technology

declined more than 7%.

In bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note jumped to 3.429% from 3.361% Monday. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. The rise in bond yields was an additional sign that investors were expecting higher interest rates after the data. 

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, fell 0.9% to $93.17 a barrel. Gold prices declined 1.3%.

The U.S. dollar, by contrast, rallied Tuesday. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies, rose 1.3%. The strong dollar has weighed on the value of other currencies against the greenback this year.

Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 fell about 1.5%. In Asia, major indexes closed mixed. South Korea’s Kospi Composite rallied 2.7% , while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.2%. 

Write to Caitlin Ostroff at caitlin.ostroff@wsj.com and Karen Langley at karen.langley@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Why ‘quantitative tightening’ is the wild card that could sink the stock market

Quantitative monetary easing is credited for juicing stock market returns and boosting other speculative asset values by flooding markets with liquidity as the Federal Reserve snapped up trillions of dollars in bonds during both the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic in particular. Investors and policy makers may be underestimating what happens as the tide goes out.

“I don’t know if the Fed or anybody else truly understands the impact of QT just yet,” said Aidan Garrib, head of global macro strategy and research at Montreal-based PGM Global, in a phone interview.

The Fed, in fact, began slowly shrinking its balance sheet — a process known as quantitative tightening, or QT — earlier this year. Now it’s accelerating the process, as planned, and it’s making some market watchers nervous.

A lack of historical experience around the process is raising the uncertainty level. Meanwhile, research that increasingly credits quantitative easing, or QE, with giving asset prices a lift logically points to the potential for QT to do the opposite.

Since 2010, QE has explained about 50% of the movement in market price-to-earnings multiples, said Savita Subramanian, equity and quant strategist at Bank of America, in an Aug. 15 research note (see chart below).


BofA U.S. Equity & Quant Strategy

“Based on the strong linear relationship between QE and S&P 500 returns from 2010 to 2019, QT through 2023 would translate into a 7 percentage-point drop in the S&P 500 from here,” she wrote.

Archive: How much of the stock market’s rise is due to QE? Here’s an estimate

In quantitative easing, a central bank creates credit that’s used to buy securities on the open market. Purchases of long-dated bonds are intended to drive down yields, which is seen enhancing appetite for risky assets as investors look elsewhere for higher returns. QE creates new reserves on bank balance sheets. The added cushion gives banks, which must hold reserves in line with regulations, more room to lend or to finance trading activity by hedge funds and other financial market participants, further enhancing market liquidity.

The way to think about the relationship between QE and equities is to note that as central banks undertake QE, it raises forward earnings expectations. That, in turn, lowers the equity risk premium, which is the extra return investors demand to hold risky equities over safe Treasurys, noted PGM Global’s Garrib. Investors are willing to venture further out on the risk curve, he said, which explains the surge in earnings-free “dream stocks” and other highly speculative assets amid the QE flood as the economy and stock market recovered from the pandemic in 2021.

However, with the economy recovering and inflation rising the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet in June, and is doubling the pace in September to its maximum rate of $95 billion per month. This will be accomplished by letting $60 billion of Treasurys and $35 billion of mortgage backed securities roll off the balance sheet without reinvestment. At that pace, the balance sheet could shrink by $1 trillion in a year.

The unwinding of the Fed’s balance sheet that began in 2017 after the economy had long recovered from the 2008-2009 crisis was supposed to be as exciting as “watching paint dry,” then-Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said at the time. It was a ho-hum affair until the fall of 2019, when the Fed had to inject cash into malfunctioning money markets. QE then resumed in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

More economists and analysts have been ringing alarm bells over the possibility of a repeat of the 2019 liquidity crunch.

“If the past repeats, the shrinking of the central bank’s balance sheet is not likely to be an entirely benign process and will require careful monitoring of the banking sector’s on-and off-balance sheet demandable liabilities,” warned Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and other researchers in a paper presented at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last month.

Hedge-fund giant Bridgewater Associates in June warned that QT was contributing to a “liquidity hole” in the bond market.

The slow pace of the wind-down so far and the composition of the balance-sheet reduction have muted the effect of QT so far, but that’s set to change, Garrib said.

He noted that QT is usually described in the context of the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet, but it’s the liability side that matters to financial markets. And so far, reductions in Fed liabilities have been concentrated in the Treasury General Account, or TGA, which effectively serves as the government’s checking account.

That’s actually served to improve market liquidity he explained, as it means the government has been spending money to pay for goods and services. It won’t last.

The Treasury plans to increase debt issuance in coming months, which will boost the size of the TGA. The Fed will actively redeem T-bills when coupon maturities aren’t sufficient to meet their monthly balance sheet reductions as part of QT, Garrib said.

The Treasury will be effectively taking money out of economy and putting it into the government’s checking account — a net drag — as it issues more debt. That will put more pressure on the private sector to absorb those Treasurys, which means less money to put into other assets, he said.

The worry for stock-market investors is that high inflation means the Fed won’t have the ability to pivot on a dime as it did during past periods of market stress, said Garrib, who argued that the tightening by the Fed and other major central banks could set up the stock market for a test of the June lows in a drop that could go “significantly below” those levels.

The main takeaway, he said, is “don’t fight the Fed on the way up and don’t fight the Fed on the way down.”

Stocks ended higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.19%,
S&P 500
SPX,
+1.53%
and Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+2.11%
snapping a three-week run of weekly losses.

The highlight of the week ahead will likely come on Tuesday, with the release of the August consumer-price index, which will be parsed for signs inflation is heading back down.

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