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Business

Santa Claus rally, FTX fallout, and restart of Keystone top week ahead

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 Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist examines the stock market’s response around the holidays on ‘Making Money.’

Investors are poised this week to see whether Christmas miracles really do come true with hopes for a Santa Claus rally. Thus far, the Nasdaq is down 8.7% over the past month, while the S&P 500 and Dow are lower by 4.5% and 3.3%, respectively.

While Sam Bankman-Fried’s next court date is not until Jan. 3, 2023, investors will nonetheless be focused on FTX this week after co-founder Gary Wang and former Alameda Research co-CEO Caroline Ellison both entered guilty pleas in federal court. Both are said to be cooperating with authorities.

Initial public offerings this week could include biotech Coya Therapeutics, health tech Nava Health MD, wealth and asset manager Prestige Wealth and marine bunkering facility provider CBL International.

Sam Bankman-Fried leaves Federal Court in New York City on Thursday, December 22, 2022. The former CEO of FTX and Alameda has been released on $250M bail. (Charles Guerin/Abaca for Fox News Digital / Fox News)

BERNIE MADOFF’S LAWYER SAYS SAM BANKMAN-FRIED SHOULD ‘SHUT UP’

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
I:COMP NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 10497.862896 +21.74 +0.21%
SP500 S&P 500 3844.82 +22.43 +0.59%
I:DJI DOW JONES AVERAGES 33203.93 +176.44 +0.53%

Monday, December 26

The markets are closed Monday in observance of Christmas. Here are some must-do financial moves to make before year-end.

Tuesday, December 27

Tuesday brings economic data, including the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly home price index, which is expected to fall by 0.30% since last month but is still expected to be up by 9.1% year over year.

Last month, William Doerner, the supervisory economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics commented: “The rate of U.S. house price growth has substantially decelerated. This deceleration is widespread with about one-third of all states and metropolitan statistical areas registering annual growth below 10 percent.”

Tuesday will also see the Case-Shiller home price index. Observers expect the measure to fall by 1.2% month over month. House prices are falling as high mortgage rates deter buyers from entering the market. Mortgage rates remain nearly double what they were a year ago, despite falling for six weeks straight. 

MORTGAGE RATES CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, FALLING FOR SIXTH WEEK

To cope with high inflation and higher costs, UPS will raise delivery fees on Tuesday. Investors will be watching this closely to see how elastic shipping demand is.

Tuesday also marks the deadline for certification of new versions of the Boeing 737 Max, the -10 and -7, and retrofitting existing planes; however, as part of the spending bill passed by the Senate last week, Boeing has been granted an exemption and will no longer have to make the safety changes.

CONGRESS INCLUDES WAIVER FOR BOEING’S NEW 737 MAX JETS IN OMNIBUS SPENDING BILL

The 737-10, the largest member of the 737 MAX family, will provide operators with more capacity, greater fuel efficiency and the best per-seat economics of any single-aisle airplane. (Boeing)

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There are no scheduled earnings calls of note.

Wednesday, December 28

On Wednesday, TC Energy hopes to restart the Keystone pipeline after it was closed in early December after it spilled 14,000 barrels of oil into a creek in Kansas.

A remediation company deploys a boom on the surface of an oil spill after a Keystone pipeline ruptured at Mill Creek in Washington County, Kansas, on Dec. 8, 2022. Vacuum trucks, booms and an emergency dam were constructed on the creek to intercept t (Kyle Bauer/KCLY/KFRM Radio via AP / AP Newsroom)

The Department of Energy’s deadline for bids to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) will expire on Wednesday. President Joe Biden announced the release of 15 million barrels in October.

SpaceX is expected to launch two rockets on Wednesday. Both missions will use SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets. The first rocket will launch another batch of Starlink internet satellites intended for a polar orbit, while the second rocket, which might launch on Thursday instead, will launch the EROS C3 high-resolution Earth-imaging satellite for ImageSat International.

EGG PRICES AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH

Egg producer Cal-Maine Foods will release fiscal second-quarter earnings after the market close. Egg prices have skyrocketed in price due to inflation,

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
CALM CAL-MAINE FOODS INC. 64.63 +1.55 +2.46%

Thursday, December 29

No earnings of note are scheduled for Thursday.

Economic data will include weekly jobless claims. Initial claims are expected to rise to 220,000, while continuing jobless claims are forecast to remain around 1.67 million. The Energy Information Administration releases its weekly petroleum status report.

Friday, December 30

Friday will see the announcement of the bidding results for Alaskan state oil and gas lease sale for the Cook Inlet area. 

The last day of trading for 2022 will see the release of the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index but no major earnings report 

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The Fitz-Gerald Group principal Keith Fitz-Gerald and Leuthold Group CIO Doug Ramsey discuss how much further the stock market will decline in 2023 as volatility spikes, on ‘The Claman Countdown.’

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Business

Charts suggest a Santa Claus rally is still in play

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CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday said there could be an opportunity to buy stocks ahead of a possible rally.

“The charts, as interpreted by Larry Williams, suggest that Christmas is not going to be canceled for Wall Street — he thinks we still have a Santa Claus rally coming, and the ideal time to buy is sometime around this Thursday,” he said.

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Stocks fell for a fourth consecutive trading session on Monday, weighed down by mounting recession fears.

Cramer said that the market’s recent downturn is the perfect setup for a Santa Claus rally, which describes U.S. stocks’ tendency to rise near the end of the year and the beginning of the new year. For Williams, it’s a matter of when, not if, stocks will run up, according to Cramer.

To explain Williams’ analysis, he examined the daily chart of the S&P 500 futures from November 2021 to January 2022.

The blue line at the bottom is Williams’ seasonal forecast, and suggests the best buying opportunities come in mid-to-late December, with the Santa Claus rally tending to last through January 10. The chart shows that stocks rallied from December 20 through the end of the year, in line with the forecast.

Cramer then compared these findings to the data shown in the daily chart of the S&P futures from September of this year until now.

The chart suggests that the market just entered the “seasonal sweet spot,” Cramer said. He added that Thursday’s trading session would be the ideal moment to buy ahead of a potential rally, according to Williams.

“I know it’s hard to believe that the market’s ready to run, but that’s how it always is with Larry’s calls. Although it’s possible this year will be different, historically, betting against him has been a real bad strategy,” he said.

For more analysis, watch Cramer’s full explanation below.

Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing

Click here to download Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing at no cost to help you build long-term wealth and invest smarter.

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Business

Dow Jones Futures: Santa Claus Rally Comes Early As Tesla Surges, These 5 Stocks Flash Buy Signals

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Dow Jones futures will open on Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally revived last week, with the S&P 500 nearly at a new high while a diverse list of leaders flashed buy signals, including AMD stock and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL).




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While it might not be everything investors wanted from Santa heading into Christmas holiday, it’s a lot better than the lump of coal they were expecting after Monday, Dec. 19.

Tesla (TSLA) was a big winner last week, rebounding powerfully from the top of a prior base to clear its 50-day line. But Tesla stock isn’t in buy range yet. Meanwhile Tradeweb Markets (TW), ArcBest (ARCB), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) and Google stock all are actionable now.

Tesla, Google, AMD and TW stock are on IBD Leaderboard. Google stock is on SwingTrader. Google and WST stock are on IBD Long-Term Leaders. Google, West Pharma, Tradeweb and AMD stock are on the IBD 50. Tradeweb also is IBD Stock Of The Day.

The video embedded in this article covers the market rebound and analyzed Tradeweb, AMD and ARCB stock.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

U.S. stock markets and many exchanges around the world are closed on Christmas Eve.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live

Coronavirus News

Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 278.64 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 5.4 million.

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 52.78 million, with deaths above 834,000.

New Covid cases are at their highest number in months, as the super-infectious omicron variant turbocharges an already-rising case count in much of the world. However, omicron cases appear to be much milder on average than with prior Covid variants.

Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally started off the past week poorly but then came on strong, with three solid gains and closing near session highs. Technically, it’s a little early for a Santa Claus rally, but investors didn’t mind opening up gifts a bit early.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.65% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index climbed 2.3%. The Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000, which looked the worst on Monday, both rallied for 3.2% weekly gains.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 9 basis points last week to 1.49%. Crude oil prices popped 4% to $73.79 a barrel.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) rebounded 4.75% last week. The Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) climbed 3.5%, nearly at a record high. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) advanced 2.4%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rallied 4.4%, with AMD stock a major component.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 3.1% last week. The Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) was up 1.7%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) ascended 6.7%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) climbed 2.7%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) edged up 0.9% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) 0.6%, after both erased steep losses earlier in the week. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) climbed 1%, right at new highs.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rose 1.9% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) inched up 0.6%. Tesla stock remains the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest’s ETFs.

Five Best Chinese Stocks To Watch Now

Tradeweb Stock

Tradeweb stock jumped 3.8% to 98.89 on Thursday, capping a 4.2% weekly gain. TW rebounded bullishly from its 50-day line and broke a trend line, flashing an early buy signal Thursday. But it kept rising, briefly hitting a record high and topping a 99.35 buy point from a four-weeks-tight pattern that was almost a flat base. The relative strength line for TW stock is near a record high.

In another positive sign, other financial market or exchange stocks, including NYSE-owner Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Nasdaq (NDAQ), CME Group (CME) and more are acting well.

ArcBest Stock

ArcBest stock popped 5.45% to 111.65 higher, in a bullish outside week, clearing a trend line and a short-term peak as it extended a 50-day line rebound. That offered an early entry for ARCB stock, which has an official buy point of 116.89.

Several other trucking firms, including J.B. Hunt (JBHT) and Saia (SAIA), are also shaping up.

AMD Stock

AMD stock rose 1.6% to 146.14 on Thursday, breaking a trend line and capping a strong weekly bounce from the 50-day line. It’s actionable here, with the Dec. 16 high of 147.93 another key hurdle.

Several other chipmakers, including AMD rival Nvidia (NVDA), are at or near buy points.

West Pharma Stock

West Pharmaceutical stock broke out past a cup-with-handle base buy point of 458.09 on Thursday, according to MarketSmith analysis. That continued a strong bounce from the 21-day and 10-week lines. WST stock rose 2.2% to 459.84 for the week. As a medical supplier, WST stock is another “picks and shovels” play, generating steady growth.

A wide variety of medical stocks are showing strength in recent weeks.

Google Stock

Google stock, after hitting a two-month low intraday Monday, rebounded for a 3.7% weekly gain to 2,938.33. That’s back above the 50-day line, a short trend line and an old buy point of 2,925.17. GOOGL stock now has a new flat base with a 3,019.43 buy point.

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock hit a low of 886.12 on Tuesday morning, more than round-tripping a 38% rally from a 900.50 cup-base buy point cleared in late October. But shares then roared higher, surging more than 14% for the week to 1,067 and reclaiming its 50-day moving average. Tesla stock was the S&P 500’s biggest winner on Wednesday and Thursday.

CEO Elon Musk, amid some confusion, signaled that he’s nearly finished selling TSLA stock to cover a tax payment.

While the rebound from the prior base and running past the 50-day line are bullish moves, Tesla stock is not yet actionable. The EV giant has a consolidation that can be viewed as a double-bottom base with a 1,202.05 buy point. A downward-sloping trend line from the early November peak offers an early entry around 1,115.

Musk said Friday evening that Tesla was rolling out FSD Beta 10.8, the latest version of its driver-assist system being used by several thousand Full Self-Driving owners.

In early January, perhaps before the open of the first trading session of 2022 on Jan. 3, Tesla will release fourth-quarter production and delivery figures. Analysts are expecting another record quarter for deliveries, with plants near Berlin and Austin set to begin production soon.

Why This IBD Tool Simplifies The Search For Top Stocks

Market Rally Analysis

The stock market rally is looking promising again. On Monday, the Nasdaq undercut the early December lows, ending its rally attempt. But the S&P 500 did not, so the overall market rally continued. It didn’t look good at the time. But the major indexes rebounded strongly over the next three sessions, reclaiming their 50-day moving averages.

The S&P 500 hit a closing high Thursday, while the Nasdaq broke a trend line and cleared its high on Dec. 16, when the market reversed sharply lower. That action provides more confidence in the health of the market rally.

The Russell 2000 rebounded from Monday’s nine-month low, but is still below its 200-day and 50-day lines. That’s a good proxy for overall market breadth, which improved in the past few sessions but remains woeful. New highs easily passed new lows on the NYSE on Thursday but still lagged on the Nasdaq.

Time The Market With IBD’s ETF Market Strategy

Market Leadership

On the plus side, market leadership continues to broaden.

Travel stocks were big winners, and a clear signal that markets, for now, are once again feeling more confident about the omicron Covid variant. Medicals have quietly been very strong. Networking stocks are clear leaders in recent weeks. TW stock and other exchange plays are doing well, while many financials aren’t that far off from looking interesting.

Several chips are flashing buy signals, including AMD stock but also several chip-equipment makers. Trucking plays are looking solid, with ARCB stock perhaps leading a convoy in the coming weeks. Housing-related stocks, despite some bumps, are standing tall.

Software remains a weak area, but there are a few kernels of strength.

What To Do Now

The stock market rally is showing real momentum. If you haven’t already, you can start to add to your exposure. But don’t suddenly rush into stocks. See how some initial buys do. If your stocks and the market continue to act well, you can gradually come off the sidelines.

To get ready, work on your watchlists. Look for stocks with strong relative strength that are holding or reclaiming key support. Make sure to include stocks from a variety of groups and sectors. Then focus on stocks that are actionable or nearly so.

Historically, investors might expect more presents this coming week. The traditional Santa Claus rally covers the last five trading days of the year, plus the first two trading sessions of the new year.

But it’s no guarantee. While the market reacted favorably to the latest omicron Covid headlines, coronavirus or other headlines could roil markets amid light volume.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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Technology

Battlefield 2042 is getting a Santa Claus skin and players hate it • Eurogamer.net

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To say Battlefield 2042 had a rough launch would be an understatement.

DICE has been scrambling to patch the game after it arrived riddled with bugs. But just as it has started to quell the community’s frustration with the game, the EA developer has kicked off a set of new frustrations.

Today’s update included a range of cosmetic items that seem to have been accidentally revealed too early, although this does explain why the update is a meaty 5GB in size (on the PlayStation 5).

Players haven’t taken too kindly to the hidden cosmetics, which one fan described as “Fortnite skins” (sorry, Fortnite fans).

But one particular skin has been seen as particularly offensive to the hardcore Battlefield community: the legendary “Father Winter”.

Available for the specialist Pyotr Boris Guskovsky, the sentry operator dons a red-hooded jacket that perfectly complements Boris’ lush beard.

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The main gripe players have is the creative decision by DICE to move away from the dark and gritty tone the franchise is known for to something more akin to the likes of Fortnite, which is continuously monetised through the addition of new cosmetics.

“DICE expects me to be able to take the game seriously with literal santa claus running around shooting people in what’s supposed to be a world where billions are displaced, natural disasters are destroying the planet, and there’s about to be a massive world proxy war,” questioned one Reddit commenter. “And we’re supposed to take all that into account with santa fucking claus running around on the battlefield.”

Similar issue has been taken with the post-match quips, which seem out of place in a game where players actively slaughter each other.

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DICE has yet to comment on the fan reaction to these latest additions.

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Business

Charts suggest stocks may fall more before Santa Claus rally

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There could be more near-term pain for the stock market before it reverses course and mounts a year-end Santa Claus rally, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Wednesday, leaning on technical analysis from Larry Williams.

“The charts and the historical data, as interpreted by Larry Williams, suggest that we’re looking at a powerful rally near the end of the month — not right now,” The “Mad Money” host said. “But we might also have another leg down before this market stabilizes.”

“My view? I think Larry is giving you still one more reason to start buying opportunistically on the way down,” as Wall Street digests concerns related to the Covid omicron variant, Cramer added.

Williams arrived at his broad conclusion by looking at two groups of information, Cramer explained. The first deals with seasonal patterns, which Williams says supports Wall Street’s belief that December is usually a strong period for stocks, especially over the back half of the month, Cramer said.

Technical analysis from Larry Williams that looks at seasonal trading patterns in December.

Mad Money with Jim Cramer

“If you only cared about the seasonal pattern, then you’d want to buy the [S&P 500] on Dec. 15th … to catch the mid-to-late month move,” Cramer said.

However, Williams’ analysis determined it’s a bit more complicated than that this year, Cramer said. The reason is that the market has poor breadth right now, based on the advance-decline line, which measures the amount of advancing stocks subtracted by the number of declining stocks.

“As far as Williams is concerned, that’s very bad news because the averages tend to follow the advance-decline line. Basically, this thing already predicted the sell-off we’ve had so far and Williams worries that the market won’t be able to bottom until this indicator turns around,” Cramer said

S&P 500’s advance-decline line, according to technical analysis from Larry Williams.

Mad Money with Jim Cramer

Using historical data, Williams believes the advance-decline line will turn around near Dec. 10, clearing the way for the market overall to follow suit, Cramer said.

“In other words, this cycle forecast confirms what we already saw from the seasonal forecast: It points to a mid-to-late December Santa Claus rally, although it also suggests the next week or two could be difficult,” he said.

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