Tag Archives: Civil Unrest

Chinese Protests Put Xi Jinping in a Bind

President

Xi Jinping

faces a difficult choice between loosening China’s zero-tolerance Covid-19 policy or doubling down on restrictions that have locked down neighborhoods and stifled the country’s economy over the past three years.

Neither option is a good one for a regime focused on stability. Stock markets around the globe declined Monday as protests in China fueled worries among investors about the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.

“Xi’s leadership is in a bind,” said

Yuen Yuen Ang,

a political scientist focused on China at the University of Michigan. “If they compromise and relax zero-Covid, they fear it will encourage mass protests. If they repress more, it will create wider and deeper grievances.”

Protesters across China have directly challenged the authority of the Chinese leader and the Communist Party in scenes unthinkable just a month ago, when Mr. Xi secured a third term in power.

In Shanghai over the weekend, protesters used call-and-response chanting to demand political change. In Beijing, crowds shouted “Freedom.” In other large cities, demonstrators marched holding blank sheets of paper—a swipe at government censorship.

China experts say the protests are unlikely to translate into a leadership change, in the near term at least. But Beijing’s dilemma is a tough one. It could lift restrictions and risk a large and potentially deadly wave of Covid infections that could undermine its credibility. Or it could crack down on the demonstrators and stick with a strict pandemic strategy that large parts of the population are clearly fed up with.

All three benchmark U.S. stock indexes closed more than 1% lower on Monday as investors worried that the protests would lead to more market volatility.

Widespread and public outpourings of political grievance have been extremely rare in a country where people have long consented to obey party authorities—as long as they deliver prosperity and allow citizens relative freedom in their personal lives.

People sang slogans and chanted for political change on a street in Shanghai on Sunday.



Photo:

hector retamal/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Police cars were parked on a Shanghai street on Monday, a day after rare demonstrations were held.



Photo:

hector retamal/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The protests put in stark relief the fraying of that social contract, showing that the climbing economic and social costs of China’s zero-Covid policies—coupled with an increasingly authoritarian regime’s zero-tolerance for dissent—have driven many to a kind of breaking point.

Demonstrations aren’t unusual in China, but they are largely over local grievances such as unpaid wages, land disputes or pollution. Since the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, the party has made it a priority to prevent nationwide protests of a political nature.

The current wave of unrest started last week in the remote northwestern region of Xinjiang after 10 people died in a fire. Residents contended that Covid restrictions were partly to blame for delaying rescuers and contributing to the death toll. Officials said some barriers had to be moved but attributed the delay to parked cars in the way.

In the days since, the anger has spread across China. On Monday, authorities moved broadly to prevent any new protests, including dozens of uniformed and undercover police swarming the area around a highway bridge in Beijing where a lone protester hung a banner denouncing Mr. Xi in October. On Sunday, protesters had chanted lines from the banners.

In a rare show of defiance, crowds in China gathered for the third night as protests against Covid restrictions spread to Beijing, Shanghai and other cities. People held blank sheets of paper, symbolizing censorship, and demanded the Chinese president step down. Photo: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

The unrest also underlined how anger about the Covid restrictions has united people from a range of social backgrounds—from migrant workers assembling iPhones in central China and residents of the remote region of Xinjiang to college students and middle-class urbanites in the nation’s biggest cities.

“The mass protests represent the biggest political crisis for Xi,” said

Minxin Pei,

editor of quarterly academic journal China Leadership Monitor. “It’s the first time in recent decades that protesters from a broad coalition of social groups have mounted a direct challenge to both the top leader himself and the party.”

Students staged a small protest Sunday at Tsinghua University in Beijing.



Photo:

Associated Press

Sudden reopening could lead to millions of intensive-care admissions in a country with fewer than four ICU beds per 100,000 people, and where many elderly still haven’t been fully vaccinated, according to public-health experts and official data. In addition, such a compromise would send a signal to the general public that mass protests are an effective means to win change, not something the government would want to encourage.

On the other hand, sticking to the zero-Covid policy could stir up even greater public resentment toward the leadership, with hard-to-gauge consequences.

The University of Michigan’s Ms. Ang and others say that the protests are unlikely to lead to any radical policy shift. Rather, one likely outcome is a mixture of selective relaxation of controls and harsh retaliation against select protesters.

Protesters and police stood on a street in Beijing on Monday.



Photo:

Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

“The danger is that if the leadership responds with repression, that could take China down a vicious cycle of control, leading to more grievances, to more control,” Ms. Ang said.

China’s Covid struggle underscores the limits of a political system where a lack of public debate has made it hard to adjust policies as other countries have done.

Many public-health experts say Beijing has missed the window to put in place a gradual exit plan out of zero-Covid. For the past three years, the government has spent significant resources on building ever more quarantine facilities and expanding mass-testing capabilities, while China’s progress on developing more effective vaccines has been slow.

Partly thanks to Beijing’s early successes at stemming infections, the Chinese population has developed little natural immunity. It only has access to homegrown vaccines that are less effective than some of the global alternatives.

A neighborhood in Beijing where access is restricted because of Covid regulations.



Photo:

Ng Han Guan/Associated Press

Notably, negotiations between China and the European Union over mRNA vaccine imports from the bloc fell through nearly two years ago, according to people familiar with the matter, after Beijing insisted that Europe recognize Chinese vaccines.

Beijing has also resisted approving any large-scale adoption of the mRNA vaccine co-developed by

Pfizer Inc.

and

BioNTech SE,

a decision healthcare and foreign-policy experts attribute partly to China’s strained relations with the U.S.

Mr. Xi and the party have faced public anger before, most notably during the early days of the pandemic when emotions swelled with the death from the virus of

Li Wenliang,

a young doctor in the city of Wuhan who was punished for trying to raise an early alarm. Ultimately, much of the nation’s anger then was directed at local authorities.

In the years since, Mr. Xi has identified himself closely with the zero-Covid strategy. That is now turning him into the natural target of protesters’ fury and has also made it nearly impossible to shift course without diminishing his standing. Notably, a People’s Daily article on Sunday continued to stress the importance of unwaveringly sticking to the existing Covid-control policy.

A Covid testing station in Shanghai on Monday. The government has built quarantine facilities and expanded mass-testing capabilities, while its development of more-effective Covid vaccines has been slow.



Photo:

Bloomberg News

As repeated lockdowns kept businesses closed and pushed up unemployment, some hoped there would be a shift away from the zero-Covid strategy once an October party conclave that handed Mr. Xi another five-year term was over.

As long as the top leader felt politically secure enough, those people argued, he would want to adjust the policy to help the economy—which still matters to the leadership despite its increased emphasis on ideology and party control.

Businesses and investors alike cheered when Beijing earlier this month unveiled plans to “optimize and adjust” the Covid policy, including shortened quarantine restrictions. Many market analysts viewed the step as the beginning of a gradual exit from zero-Covid.

However, as Covid cases surged again along with the colder season, local officials across the country reimposed strict restrictions for fear of putting their jobs in jeopardy. Keeping Covid under control has remained the overarching political priority for localities that are also struggling to reboot economic activity.

The contrast of China’s continued Covid lockdowns as the rest of the world has moved on became more obvious over the past week as many Chinese soccer fans have seen TV images of thousands of maskless spectators cheering in stadiums during the World Cup in Qatar.

Then came the deadly fire in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, where residents had struggled with lockdowns of more than 100 days, prompting protesters across the country to defy the risks of expressing dissent to seek change.

People lighted candles on Sunday in Beijing for victims of a deadly fire in the northwestern city of Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang.



Photo:

Bloomberg News

Write to Lingling Wei at Lingling.Wei@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Chevron Gets U.S. License to Pump Oil in Venezuela Again

WASHINGTON—The U.S. said it would allow

Chevron Corp.

CVX -0.29%

to resume pumping oil from its Venezuelan oil fields after President Nicolás Maduro’s government and an opposition coalition agreed to implement an estimated $3 billion humanitarian relief program and continue dialogue in Mexico City on efforts to hold free and fair elections.

Following the Norwegian-brokered agreement signed in Mexico City, the Biden administration granted a license to Chevron that allows the California-based oil company to return to its oil fields in joint ventures with the Venezuela national oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA. The new license, granted by the Treasury Department, permits Chevron to pump Venezuelan oil for the first time in years.

Biden administration officials said the license prohibits PdVSA from receiving profits from Chevron’s oil sales. The officials said the U.S. is prepared to revoke or amend the license, which will be in effect for six months, at any time if Venezuela doesn’t negotiate in good faith.

Venezuela produces some 700,000 barrels of oil a day, compared with more than 3 million in the 1990s.



Photo:

Isaac Urrutia/Reuters

“If Maduro again tries to use these negotiations to buy time to further consolidate his criminal dictatorship, the United States and our international partners must snap back the full force of our sanctions,” said Sen.

Robert Menendez

(D., N.J.), the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

The U.S. policy shift could signal an opening for other oil companies to resume their business in Venezuela two years after the Trump administration clamped down on Chevron and other companies’ activities there as part of a maximum-pressure campaign meant to oust the government led by Mr. Maduro. The Treasury Department action didn’t say how non-U.S. oil companies might re-engage with Venezuela.

Venezuela produces some 700,000 barrels of oil a day, compared with more than 3 million barrels a day in the 1990s. Some analysts said Venezuela could hit 1 million barrels a day in the medium term, a modest increment reflecting the dilapidated state of the country’s state-led oil industry.

Some Republican lawmakers criticized the Biden administration’s decision to clear the way for Chevron to pump more oil in Venezuela. “The Biden administration should allow American energy producers to unleash DOMESTIC production instead of begging dictators for oil,” Rep. Claudia Tenney (R., N.Y.) wrote on Twitter.

Biden administration officials said the decision to issue the license wasn’t a response to oil prices, which have been a major concern for President Biden and his top advisers in recent months as they seek to tackle inflation. “This is about the regime taking the steps needed to support the restoration of democracy in Venezuela,” one of the officials said.

The Wall Street Journal reported in October that the Biden administration was preparing to scale down sanctions on Venezuela’s regime to allow Chevron to resume pumping oil there.

Jorge Rodriguez led the Venezuelan delegation to the talks in Mexico City, where an agreement was signed.



Photo:

Henry Romero/Reuters

Under the new license, profits from the sale of oil will go toward repaying hundreds of millions of dollars in debt owed to Chevron by PdVSA, administration officials said. The U.S. will require that Chevron report details of its financial operations to ensure transparency, they said.

Chevron spokesman Ray Fohr said the new license allows the company to commercialize the oil currently being produced at its joint-venture assets. He said the company will conduct its business in compliance within the current framework.

The license prohibits Chevron from paying taxes and royalties to the Venezuelan government, which surprised some experts. They had been expecting that direct revenue would encourage PdVSA to reroute oil cargoes away from obscure export channels, mostly to Chinese buyers at a steep discount, which Venezuela has relied on for years to skirt sanctions.

“If this is the case, Maduro doesn’t have significant incentives to allow that many cargoes of Chevron to go out,” said

Francisco Monaldi,

director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. Sending oil to China, even at a heavy discount, would be better for Caracas than only paying debt to Chevron, he said.

The limited scope of the Chevron license is seen as a way to ensure that Mr. Maduro stays the course on negotiations. “Rather than fully opening the door for Venezuelan oil to flow to the U.S. market immediately, what the license proposes is a normalization path that is likely contingent on concessions from the Maduro regime on the political and human-rights front,” said

Luisa Palacios,

senior research scholar at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy.

The license allows Venezuelan oil back into the U.S., historically its largest market, but only if the oil from the PdVSA-Chevron joint ventures is first sold to Chevron and doesn’t authorize exports from the ventures “to any jurisdiction other than the United States,” which appears to restrict PdVSA’s own share of the sales to the U.S. market, said Mr. Monaldi.

The license prohibits transactions involving goods and services from Iran, a U.S.-sanctioned oil producer that has helped Venezuela overcome sanctions in recent years. It blocks dealings with Venezuelan entities owned or controlled by Western-sanctioned Russia, which has played a role in Venezuela’s oil industry.

Jorge Rodriguez,

the head of Venezuela’s Congress as well as the government’s delegation to the Mexico City talks, declined to comment on the issuance of the Chevron license.

Freddy Guevara,

a member of the opposition coalition’s delegation, said the estimated $3 billion in frozen funds intended for humanitarian relief and infrastructure projects in Venezuela would be administered by the United Nations. He cautioned that it would take time to implement the program fully. “It begins now, but the time period is up to three years,” he said.

The Venezuelan state funds frozen in overseas banks by sanctions are expected to be used to alleviate the country’s health, food and electric-power crises in part by building infrastructure for electricity and water-treatment needs. “Not one dollar will go to the vaults of the regime,” Mr. Guevara said.

Chevron plans to restore lost output as it performs maintenance and other essential work, but it won’t attempt major work that would require new investments in the country’s oil fields until debts of $4.2 billion are repaid. That could take about two to three years depending on oil-market conditions, according to people familiar with the matter.

PdVSA owes Chevron and other joint-venture partners their shares of more than two years of revenue from oil sales, after the 2020 U.S. sanctions barred the Venezuelan company from paying its partners, one of the people said. The license would allow Chevron to collect its share of dividends from its joint ventures such as Petropiar, in which Chevron is a 30% partner.

Analysts said the new agreement raises expectations that will take time and work to fulfill. “Ensuring the success of talks won’t be easy, but it’s clear that offering gradual sanctions relief like this in order to incentivize agreements is the only way forward. It’s a Champagne-popping moment for the negotiators, but much more work remains to be done,” said Geoff Ramsey, Venezuela director at the Washington Office on Latin America.

Write to Collin Eaton at collin.eaton@wsj.com and Andrew Restuccia at andrew.restuccia@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Iran’s supreme leader praises paramilitary for crackdown on ‘rioters’



CNN
 — 

Iran’s Supreme Leader has praised the country’s Basij paramilitary force for its role in the deadly crackdown on anti-regime protesters.

Meeting with Basij personnel in Tehran Saturday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described the popular protest movement as “rioters” and “thugs” backed by foreign forces and praised “innocent” Basij fighters for protecting the nation.

The Basij is a wing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard deployed to the streets as protests have swelled since September.

The protest movement was initially sparked by the death of 22-year-old woman Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police.

Amnesty International says the Basij have been ordered to “mercilessly confront” protesters.

“When facing the enemy on the field of battle the Basij has always shown itself to be courageous, not afraid of the enemy,” the Supreme Leader said Saturday.

“You saw in the most recent events, our innocent and oppressed Basijis became the targets of oppression so that they wouldn’t allow the nation to become the targets of rioters and thugs and those on the [enemy] payroll, whether wittingly or unwittingly. They gave of themselves to free others,” Khamenei said.

Khamenei’s words come a day after United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Chief Volker Turk warned Iran is in a “full-fledged human rights crisis” due to the clampdown on anti-regime dissidents.

Turk called for “independent, impartial and transparent investigative processes” into violations of human rights in Iran during a special session of the UN Human Rights Council on Thursday.

He told the 47-member states council in Geneva that security forces have reportedly responded to protests by using lethal force against unarmed demonstrators and bystanders who posed “no threat.”

More than 14,000 people, including children, have been arrested in connection with the protests, according to Turk. He said that at least 21 of them currently face the death penalty and six have already received death sentences.

Among those arrested are two well-known Iranian actors, Hengameh Ghaziani and Katayoun Riahi, who were taken into custody on separate occasions for publicly backing the nationwide protests, according to the semi-official Tasnim News Agency.

The Islamic Republic has been gripped by a wave of anti-government protests sparked by the death of Amini allegedly for not wearing her hijab properly.

Authorities have since unleashed a deadly crackdown on demonstrators, with reports of forced detentions and physical abuse being used to target the country’s Kurdish minority group. In a recent CNN investigation, covert testimony revealed sexual violence against protesters, including boys, in Iran’s detention centers since the start of the unrest.

The unprecedented national uprising has taken hold of more than 150 cities and 140 universities in all 31 provinces of Iran, according to Turk.

The violent response of Iran’s security forces toward protesters has shaken diplomatic ties between Tehran and Western leaders.

The White House on Wednesday imposed its latest round of sanctions on three officials in Iran’s Kurdish region, after US Secretary Antony Blinken said he was “greatly concerned that Iranian authorities are reportedly escalating violence against protesters.”

During an interview with Indian broadcaster NDTV on Thursday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said foreign powers were intervening in Iranian internal affairs and creating “fallacious narratives.”

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Toomaj Salehi: Family fears for life of rapper ‘violently arrested’ after encouraging Iranians to protest



CNN
 — 

“Someone’s crime was that her hair was flowing in the wind. Someone’s crime was that he or she was brave and were outspoken.”

These lyrics could cost Iranian rap artist Toomaj Salehi his life. In any other country he could have easily rapped about the day-to-day problems facing his countrymen without consequence.

But because he lives in Iran, Salehi’s fate is quite different.

The 32-year-old underground dissident rapper was violently arrested last Saturday along with two of his friends, his uncle said, and now faces accusations of crimes that are punishable by death, according to Iranian state media.

As many as 14,000 people in Iran have been arrested including journalists, activists, lawyers and educators during protests that have rocked the country since September, according to a top United Nations official.

The unrest was sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman who died on September 16 after being detained by “morality police” and taken to a “re-education center,” allegedly for not wearing her hijab properly.

“I woke up at two o’clock in the morning with a phone call from Toomaj’s friend saying ‘our whereabouts have been leaked,’” Salehi’s uncle Eghbal Eghbali told CNN in an interview. “Since then we have been worried about what has happened to Toomaj.”

Eghbali says he found out through Salehi’s friends later that morning that about 50 people raided his nephew’s residence in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, in southwestern Iran.

The rapper is accused of “propagandistic activity against the government, cooperation with hostile governments and forming illegal groups with the intention of creating insecurity in the country,” state-run IRNA said, quoting the Esfahan province judiciary.

Salehi’s uncle said his nephew is currently detained in a prison in the city of Isfahan, and that he has information he was tortured. Salehi is a resident of Shahin Shahr, about 20km north of Isfahan.

“We still do not know anything about Toomaj’s health condition. The family has tried very hard to even just hear his voice, but no one has given us any information about Toomaj,” he said. “We don’t even know if Toomaj and his friends are alive or not.”

Salehi’s friends who were arrested with him over the weekend, boxing champion Mohammad Reza Nikraftar and kickboxer Najaf Abu Ali, also haven’t been heard from since, Eghbali said.

“The accused played a key role in creating, inviting and encouraging riots in Isfahan province and in the city of Shahin Shahr,” a spokesperson for Isfahan Province Judiciary, Seyyed Mohammad Mousavian said according to IRNA.

After his arrest, a short video clip of what appears to be Salehi blindfolded emerged on state-backed news agency, the Young Journalists Club (YJC). Salehi appears to be under duress voicing remorse for remarks he made on social media.

Salehi’s uncle was adamant that the man in the video was not his nephew, adding that the government had political objectives in releasing the short clip. Eghbali also rejects the government’s claim that his nephew was running away at the time of his arrest.

“Absolutely not,” Eghbali said. “Because where Toomaj was living or where we are in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, basically we have no way to the border. This is a very crackbrained claim. Anyone who knows the geography of Iran will not believe such claim.”

Since the beginning of the nationwide protests which started in mid-September, Salehi, who IRNA said was also detained in September 2021, has been calling for Iranians to protest against the government.

“None of us have different color blood,” Salehi posted on Instagram. “Don’t forget our amazing union and do not allow them to create division between us, in this bloody and sad heaven.”

Salehi, who himself is of Bakhtiari ethnic background, has long rapped about Iran’s multi-ethnic makeup, encouraging unity among Iranians of different ethnic backgrounds.

“Stand with us, we stood by you for years,” Salehi raps in his song “Meydoone jang” which translates as “The Battlefield.”

“It’s not enough to be rebellious, we have revolutionary roots. Arab, Assyrian, Armenian, Turkmen, Mazandari, Sistani, Baluch, Talysh, Tatar, Azeri, Kurd, Gilaki, Lor, Farsi and Qashqai, we are the unity of rivers: we are the sea.”

Days before his arrest, Salehi posted videos of himself alongside protesters on the street on Instagram. Since then, his fans, Iranians in the diaspora, as well as musicians and activists, have called for his release.

“A lot of rappers have come out and supported him,” Iranian rapper, songwriter and activist Erfan Paydar told CNN. “Toomaj’s bravery of protesting in the streets encouraged others to get out there and speak up and made people think ‘if he’s willing to go out there and he’s not scared, then maybe we shouldn’t be.’”

Paydar said that Salehi recently shared a message with his trusted friends which was to be released in the event he was arrested. “You will go forward according to my operation. You are my most trusted person,” the message reads.

“The priority is with the students and workers, you will cover all calls for protests, you will not support any party or group, do not write much about the prisoners unless their condition worsens and they have no voice. Concentrate on attack not defense.”

Security forces have arrested several musicians and artists including two other rappers who were involved in protests – Emad Ghavidel from Rasht and Kurdish rapper Saman Yasin from Kermanshah.

Ghavidel was released on bond and described in an Instagram post how he was tortured and had his teeth smashed. Yasin was subjected to severe mental and physical torture during his time in custody, according to Norway-based Kurdish human rights group Hengaw, and charged with a crime that can carry a death sentence in a sham trial.

“Toomaj’s mother was a political prisoner,” Salehi’s uncle who lives in Germany told CNN. “She has passed away a long time ago…if my sister was still alive, she would become Toomaj’s voice. The same as I am Toomaj’s voice. The same as many who are on the streets [in Iran] are the voice of Toomaj.”

Since the death of Mahsa Amini in custody, protesters across Iran have coalesced around a range of grievances with the regime. Meanwhile, Iranian authorities have been stepping up efforts to end the uprising. Around 1,000 people have been charged in the Tehran province for their alleged involvement in the protests, state news agency IRNA reported last week.

The trials of those accused will be heard in public over the coming days, IRNA said, citing Ali Al-Qasi Mehr, chief justice of Tehran province.

Iranian media said last weekend that the trials for several demonstrators had started the previous week.

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Egypt faces criticism over crackdown on activists ahead of COP27 climate summit



CNN
 — 

Egypt is facing a barrage of criticism over what rights groups say is a crackdown on protests and activists, as it prepares to host the COP27 climate summit starting Sunday.

Rights groups have accused the Egyptian government of arbitrarily detaining activists after Egyptian dissidents abroad called for protests to be held against President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on November 11, during the United Nations climate talks.

According to rights groups, security forces have been setting up checkpoints on Cairo streets, stopping people and searching their phones to find any content related to the planned protests.

The Egyptian Commission for Rights and Freedoms (ECRF), an NGO, said Wednesday that 93 people had been arrested in Egypt in recent days. It said that according to national security prosecution investigations, some of those arrested have allegedly sent videos calling for protests over social messaging apps. Some were also charged with abuse of social media, spreading false news and joining terrorist organizations – a repressive charge commonly used by the security apparatus against activists.

Indian climate activist Ajit Rajagopal was detained in Cairo last Sunday after setting off on a protest walk from the Egyptian capital to Sharm el-Sheikh, the Red Sea resort where the COP27 conference will be held from November 6 to 18. Rajagopal was released after a brief detention in Cairo along with his friend, lawyer Makarios Lahzy, a Facebook post by Lahzy said. Reuters, which spoke to Rajagopal following his release Monday, cited the Indian activist as saying he was still trying to get accredited for COP27 but did not plan to resume his march.

CNN has reached out to the Egyptian authorities for comment.

Egypt went through two mass uprisings in 2011 and 2013 which eventually paved the way for then-military chief Sisi to take power. Thousands of activists have since been jailed, spaces for public expression have been quashed and press freedom diminished.

While protests are rare – and mostly illegal – in Egypt, a looming economic crisis and a brutal security regime have spurred renewed calls for demonstrations by dissidents seeking to exploit a rare window of opportunity presented by the climate summit.

One jailed activist, British-Egyptian citizen Alaa Abdelfattah, escalated his hunger strike in an Egyptian prison this week, amid warnings by relatives over his deteriorating health. “Alaa has been on hunger strike for 200 days, he’s been surviving on only 100 calories of liquid a day,” said Sanaa Seif, Abdelfattah’s sister, who is staging a sit-in outside the UK Foreign Office in London.

COP, the annual UN-sponsored climate summit that brings together the signatories of the Paris Agreement on combating climate change, is traditionally a place where representatives of civil society have an opportunity to mingle with experts and policy makers and observe negotiations firsthand.

It is not uncommon to see a young activist approaching a national delegation walking down the corridor to their next meeting or an indigenous leader chatting to a minister on the sidelines of a debate.

And while security is always strict – this is, after all, a gathering attended by dozens of heads of states and governments – peaceful protests have always been part of COP. Tens of thousands of people marched through the streets of last year’s host city of Glasgow, Scotland, during the summit.

Yet Egypt has tightened the rules on who can access the talks.

As in the past, this year’s COP conference will take place across two different sites. The official part of the summit is run by the UN and is only accessible to accredited people, including the official delegations, representatives of NGOs and other civil society groups, experts, journalists and other observers.

Then there is a separate public venue where climate exhibitions and events take place throughout the two weeks of the summit. But while this public part of the summit was in the past open to anyone, people wishing to attend this year will need to register ahead of time.

The chance to protest will also be restricted.

While the Egyptian government has pledged to allow demonstrations, it has said protests will have to take place in a special “protest zone,” a dedicated space away from the main conference site, and will have to be announced in advance. Guidelines published on the official COP website say that any other marches would need to be specially approved.

Anyone wanting to organize a protest will need to be registered for the public part of the conference – a requirement that may scare off activists fearing surveillance. Among the rules imposed by the Egyptian authorities on the protests is a ban on the use of “impersonated objects, such as satirical drawings of Heads of States, negotiators, individuals.”

The UN has urged Egypt to ensure the public has a say at the conference.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said it was “essential that everyone – including civil society representatives – is able to participate meaningfully at the COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh” and that decisions about climate change need to be “transparent, inclusive and accountable.”

Separately, a group of five independent human rights experts, all of them UN special rapporteurs, published a statement last month expressing alarm over restrictions ahead of the summit. They said the Egyptian government had placed strict limits on who can participate in the talks and how, and said that “a wave of government restrictions on participation raised fears of reprisals against activists.”

“This new wave follows years of persistent and sustained crackdowns on civil society and human rights defenders using security as a pretext to undermine the legitimate rights of civil society to participate in public affairs in Egypt,” the group said in a statement.

A group of Egyptian civil rights groups has launched a petition calling for the Egyptian authorities to end the prosecutions of civil society activists and organizations and end restrictions on the rights to freedom of expression, association and peaceful assembly.

“The Egyptian authorities have for years employed draconian laws, including laws on counter terrorism, cyber crimes, and civil society, to stifle all forms of peaceful dissent and shut down civic space,” the groups said in the petition.

Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, Friends of the Earth and scores of other groups have also spoken up, demanding the release of detained activists.

In the lead-up to the climate conference, the Egyptian government presented an initiative pardoning prisoners jailed for their political activity. Authorities also pointed to a new prison, Badr-3, 70 kilometers (43 miles) northeast of Cairo, where other prisoners were moved to purportedly better conditions.

But rights groups said the government’s initiatives amounted to little change.

“Ahead of COP27, Egypt’s PR machine is operating on all cylinders to conceal the awful reality in the country’s jails, where prisoners held for political reasons are languishing in horrific conditions violating the absolute prohibition of torture and other ill-treatment,” said Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s secretary general.

“Prisoners are facing the same human rights violations that have repeatedly blighted older institutions, exposing the lack of a political will from the Egyptian authorities to bring an end to the human rights crisis in the country.”

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Inside a Chinese iPhone Plant, Foxconn Grapples With Covid Chaos

HONG KONG—

Foxconn Technology

2354 -0.76%

Group is scrambling to contain a weekslong Covid-19 outbreak at an iPhone factory in central China, trying to appease frightened and frustrated workers during a crucial period for smartphone orders.

In Foxconn’s main Zhengzhou facility, the world’s biggest assembly site for

Apple Inc.’s

AAPL 7.56%

iPhones, hundreds of thousands of workers have been placed under a closed-loop system for almost two weeks. They are largely shut off from the outside world, allowed only to move between their dorms or homes and the production lines.

Many said they have been confined to their quarters for days and that distribution of food and other essentials has been chaotic. Many others say they are too scared to carry on working because of the risk of getting infected.

Foxconn on Wednesday denied what it said were online rumors that 20,000 cases had been detected at the site and said that for “the small number of employees affected by the pandemic,” it is providing necessary supplies.

“A sudden outbreak disrupted our normal life,” Foxconn said Friday in a post to its workers on

WeChat,

a social-media platform. “An orderly progress in both pandemic prevention and output depends on the efforts of all staff,” it said. It outlined plans to ensure proper food supplies and mental well-being support and pledged to respond to workers’ concerns.

Asked about the workers’ details of the situation at the site, Foxconn didn’t respond. Earlier when asked about the situation, the company referred to its Wednesday statement as well as to its Friday post on WeChat.

Covid-19 lockdowns, corruption crackdowns and more have put China’s economy on a potential crash course. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains how China’s economic downturn could harm the U.S. and the rest of the world. Illustration: David Fang

“It’s too dangerous to go to work,” a 21-year-old worker who has been confined to his dorm told The Wall Street Journal, saying that he was skeptical about the company’s claim that there was a low level of infections at the plant.

The disruption at Foxconn is the latest example of the economic and societal toll from China’s rigid pandemic control policies—which include swift and sweeping lockdowns, mass testing and compulsory quarantines to crush the virus whenever it appears. While Beijing says the virus is too potent to allow any easing of its zero-Covid policy, businesses must convince their employees that there is little risk coming to work when there are signs of an outbreak.

Zhengzhou’s flare-up—95 cases recorded in the city the past four days—began in early October, after people returned from other parts of the country from a one-week national holiday. At the first signs of Covid in the city, officials locked down some districts and began rounds of mass testing to stamp out the virus before it gained a foothold among Zhengzhou’s 12.7 million residents. As a major employer, Foxconn joined the campaign.

When more infections emerged at Foxconn midmonth, the company sought to maintain output by creating a “bubble” around its operations to lower the risk of exposure, a practice now common among major manufacturers in China to continue their business during a local outbreak.

Foxconn says it employs as many as 300,000 workers in Zhengzhou. Analysts estimate that the company produces half or more of Apple’s smartphones in the city, making it vital for delivering iPhones to consumers, including for the coming winter holiday season when demand for the handsets typically spikes.

Foxconn, in its statement on Wednesday, said that production at the site is “relatively stable” and that it is sticking to its operating outlook for the current quarter as the impact from the outbreak is controllable. It is set to report quarterly results Nov. 10.

Apple, in its quarterly earnings release Thursday, didn’t mention Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant. Its chief financial officer said that supply is constrained for the new iPhone 14 Pro models due to strong demand.

Apple didn’t respond to requests for comment about conditions at the Foxconn plant.

Some workers interviewed by the Journal said many colleagues had refused to go back to the production lines. Others had simply left, they said, sometimes abandoning their belongings.

On Sunday, a state-run newspaper in Henan published official notices from various parts of the province welcoming their people to return, with quarantine protocols laid out.

Over the weekend, videos geotagged near the Foxconn site went viral on China’s social-media platforms, recording groups of people walking on highways or through farm fields carrying suitcases and backpacks. Other footage showed makeshift stations set up by local residents offering bottles of water in front of handwritten signs to support migrant Foxconn workers leaving for home.

Foxconn said in a statement Sunday that the situation is coming under control with help from authorities. The company said it is organizing transportation for workers who wish to return home and is coordinating production capacity with its plants elsewhere to minimize disruption. There is no shortage of medical supplies or daily necessities at the facility, it said.

Earlier on Friday, the company had posted a video on WeChat urging people to return to work. “The company needs people,” said a woman’s voice over footage of workers stepping off a bus. “If nobody comes to work, how can the company run?”

Another Foxconn employee said most of his dozen-strong team of night-shift workers had either been taken to a quarantine facility or had refused to return to work. Every night, he said, he saw workers covered in protective gear waiting to be taken away by bus.

“I don’t know who around me is a positive case,” said the worker, who has been confined to his dorm for a few days. “I’d be better off staying in the dorm.”

With so many stuck inside their quarters, sent to quarantine centers or simply absent from work, the pace of production at some assembly lines has slowed, two of the workers said.

Foxconn has created incentives to maintain production, according to Friday’s company notice.

Anyone turning up for work will get free meals and a daily bonus, it said. Those turning up every working day from Oct. 26 to Nov. 11 will get an award of 1,500 yuan, or about $200.

The 21-year-old employee who spoke to the Journal and who worked on an assembly line making an older iPhone version, said he had been confined to his quarters since Oct. 17, along with thousands of others.

Over the following days, meal deliveries were delayed and garbage was left unattended in the hallways, piling up on the ground floor as more dorms were locked down, he said.

A daughter of one worker said her mother was placed in the same dorm as some who tested positive. Some other workers made similar complaints.

Around 10 days ago, almost 300 employees from Foxconn suppliers were asked to move out of their dormitories and sleep in the factory, one of them said.

In photos he shared with the Journal, people slept on bedding and pillows placed on metal bed frames, under white fluorescent lights suspended from the hangar-like roof. Hygiene has become a problem, he said. Still, he said he isn’t supposed to leave the plant—and has nowhere to go if he did.

“Where can I go? Barriers are everywhere,” he said. “There are people manning every checkpoint.”

Business and the Pandemic

Write to Wenxin Fan at Wenxin.Fan@wsj.com and Selina Cheng at selina.cheng@wsj.com

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Arshad Sharif: Prominent Pakistani journalist killed in Kenya


Nairobi
CNN Business
 — 

Arshad Sharif, a prominent Pakistani journalist who fled the country after he was charged with sedition, has died in Kenya after he was shot by police responding to reports of a stolen vehicle, authorities said.

“The officers trailing the motor vehicle … alerted police in Magadi who erected a road barrier,” Bruno Isohi Shioso, a spokesperson for Kenya’s National Police Service, said in a statement.

Sharif’s car allegedly drove through the road barrier and “it is then that they were shot at,” Shioso said. Sharif was “fatally wounded by a police officer,” he said, adding that the incident was being investigated.

According to a police report seen by Kenyan national news outlet The Nation, the roadblock had been set up after reports of a kidnapping that involved a car bearing a similar license plate number to that of Sharif’s.

Kenya’s Independent Policing Oversight Authority (IPOA), a civilian watchdog organization, said it has already started investigating the incident.

“I lost friend, husband and my favourite journalist @arsched today, as per police he was shot in Kenya,” Sharif’s wife, Javeria Siddique, tweeted Monday.

Sharif fled Pakistan in August due to sedition charges leveled against him for allegedly criticizing state institutions and “abetting mutiny” within the military.

He had interviewed opposition politician Shahbaz Gill, a close ally of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Following the interview, Gill was also charged with sedition by the Pakistani police for making what they claim were “anti-state comments.”

Sharif’s channel ARY initially claimed that it was “being hounded by the present regime,” but then said it had cut ties with Sharif after it was taken off air for about a month on August 8 by the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority.

Sharif had to “flee Pakistan in August to save his life,” a close associate of his told CNN. He had initially gone to Dubai but was forced to flee from the UAE due to “harassment by Pakistani officials,” the associate added.

Sharif had “only been in Kenya for a few weeks since that is one of the few places Pakistani passport holders don’t need a visa for entry,” the associate said.

Pakistan’s embassy officials in Nairobi are waiting for a the police report, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

Though not technically under military rule today, Pakistan has been ruled by the military for much of its 75-year history.

The Foreign Press Association, Africa (FPA Africa) said it is “deeply disturbed” by Sharif’s killing, especially the circumstances in which he died.

“Sharif’s death has robbed the media fraternity globally of a dedicated and forthright journalist,” FPA Africa said in a statement.

The association added that it is calling on authorities in Kenya to investigate the incident and thereby assure “foreign journalists based in the country and covering Africa, including those who visit on assignment and other professional undertakings that they’re safe.”

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan tweeted on Monday that “a long, grim record of violent tactics to silence journalists explain why the reported murder of journalist Arshad Sharif in Kenya has sent shock waves through the journalist community.”

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif tweeted that he was “deeply saddened by the shocking news” of Sharif’s death. Shehbaz also said he had a phone conversation with Kenyan President William Ruto and “I requested him to ensure fair & transparent investigation into shocking incident. He promised all-out help including fast-tracking the process of return of the body” to Pakistan.



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US State Department confirms detention of US citizen in Saudi Arabia



CNN
 — 

The son of an American citizen imprisoned in Saudi Arabia for criticizing the Saudi government said Tuesday evening that his father is “nowhere near being a dissident.”

“My father is a senior American citizen who just wants to live freely and happy in the United States where he got his education,” Saad Ibrahim Almadi’s son, Ibrahim Almadi, told CNN’s Erin Burnett on “OutFront.”

The US State Department confirmed earlier Tuesday that 72-year-old Saad Ibrahim Almadi has been imprisoned in Saudi Arabia after being given a 16-year sentence for tweets critical of the Saudi government.

Almadi’s imprisonment was first reported by The Washington Post.

Ibrahim Almadi told CNN on Tuesday that if his father had been held in Russia or Iran, “we’d see his name in the headlines every morning.”

State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said at a news briefing that officials have “consistently and intensively raised our concerns regarding the case at senior levels of the Saudi government, both through channels in Riyadh and Washington, DC, as well … as recently as yesterday.”

Patel also confirmed that there was no State Department official at Almadi’s sentencing hearing, which he said was because the Saudi government moved up the hearing date without telling the US embassy and never responded to the embassy’s request to attend the hearing weeks before it was originally scheduled. The last time the US had consular access to Almadi was August 10, according to Patel.

The State Department, he said, is still going through the process to determine whether Almadi will be designated as “wrongfully detained.”

“Exercising the freedom of expression should never be criminalized,” Patel said.

The State Department communicated with the Saudi ambassador in Washington on Monday about Almadi’s case, a US official told CNN.

This headline and story have been updated with additional developments Tuesday.

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From protester to fighter: Fleeing Iran’s brutal crackdown to take up arms over the border


Iraqi Kurdistan
CNN
 — 

A teenage dissident trailed behind a group of smugglers in the borderlands of western Iran. For three days, Rezan trekked a rocky mountain range and walked through minefields along a winding path forged by seasoned smugglers to circumnavigate the country’s heavily armed Revolutionary Guards. It was a trip too dangerous for respite of much more than a few stolen moments at a time.

“I knew that if an officer spotted us, we would die immediately,” said the 19-year-old Iranian-Kurdish activist, whom CNN is identifying by her pseudonym Rezan for security purposes. She was traveling to the border with Iraq, one of Iran’s most militarized frontiers, where according to rights groups, many have been shot to death by Iranian security forces for crossing illegally, or for smuggling illicit goods.

She had fled her hometown of Sanandaj in western Iran where security forces were wreaking death and destruction on the protest sites. Demonstrators were arbitrarily detained, some were shot dead in front of her, she said. Many were beaten up on the streets. In the second week of the protests, security forces pulled Rezan by her uncovered hair, she said. As she was being dragged down the street, screaming in agony, she saw her friends forcefully detained and children getting beaten.

Alex Platt/CNN

“They pulled my hair. They beat me. They dragged me,” she said, recounting the brutal crackdown in the Kurdish-majority city. “At the same time, I could see the same thing happening to many other people, including children.”

Sanandaj has seen the some of the largest protests in Iran, the biggest outside of Tehran, since the uprising began in mid-September.

Rezan said she had no choice but to take the long and perilous journey with smugglers to Iraq. Leaving Iran through the nearest official border crossing – a mere three-hour car ride away — could have led to her arrest. Staying in Sanandaj could have resulted in her death at the hands of the security forces.

“(Here) I can get my rights to live as a woman. I want to fight for the rights of women. I want to fight for human rights,” she told CNN from northern Iraq. After she arrived here earlier this month, she decided to change tack. No longer a peaceful protester, Rezan decided to take up arms, enlisting with an Iranian-Kurdish militant group that has positions in the arid valleys of Iraqi Kurdistan.

Rezan is one of multiple Iranian dissidents who fled the country in the last month, escaping the regime’s violent bid to quash demonstrations that erupted after the death of 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman Mahsa “Zhina” Amini during her detention by Iranian morality police for allegedly wearing a hijab improperly.

The number of dissidents who have left Iran since the protests started is unknown. In the Kurdish-administered region of northern Iraq (KRG) — which borders the predominantly Kurdish west of Iran — many of the exiled activists keep a low profile, hiding in safe houses. They said they fear reprisals against their families back home, where mass detentions have become commonplace in Kurdish-majority areas.

According to eyewitnesses and social media videos, the people in those regions have endured some of the most heavy-handed tactics used by Iran’s security forces in their brutal campaign to crush the protest movement.

In Kurdish-majority regions, evidence of security forces indiscriminately shooting at crowds of protesters is widespread. The Iranian government also appears to have deployed members of its elite fighting force, the Revolutionary Guards, to these areas to face off with demonstrators, according to eyewitnesses and video from the protest sites.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards typically fight the regime’s battles further afield, namely in Iraq and Syria, propping up brutal dictatorships as well as fighting extremist groups such as ISIS.

For the Kurds, the intensified crackdown in the country’s west underscores decades of well-documented ethnic marginalization by Iran’s central government. These are grievances that Iran’s other ethnic minorities share and that precede clerical rule in Iran.

The nearly 10-million strong Kurdish population is the third largest ethnic group in Iran. Governments in Tehran — including the regime of the pro-Western Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi who was overthrown in 1979 — have eyed the group with suspicion because of their long-standing aspirations to secede from the state and establish a republic alongside Kurdish communities in neighboring countries.

Crouched under the shade of a tree in a dusty valley alongside her sisters-in-arms in northern Iraq, Rezan clasps her AK-47 rifle, her faltering voice betraying a lingering fear of Iranian reprisals. After she fled Iran, the authorities there called her family and threatened to arrest her siblings, she said.

But her family supports her militancy, she said, with her mother vowing to bury every one of her children rather than hand them over to the authorities. “I carry a weapon because we want to show the Iranian Kurds that they have someone standing behind them,” Rezan said from one of the bases of her militant group, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK). “I want to protect the Kurds there because the Kurds are protecting themselves with rocks.”

Protesters across Iran are largely unarmed. Yet Iran blames Kurdish-Iranian armed groups in Iraqi Kurdistan for instigating unrest in Kurdish-majority areas. It has repeatedly struck Iranian-Kurdish targets in Iraq with drones and missiles since the protests began, killing scores of people.

Last Saturday, Iran’s Armed Forces chief accused the Iraqi Kurdistan region – which has a semi-autonomous government – of harboring 3,000 Iranian-Kurdish militants, and vowed to continue to attack their bases unless the government disarms the fighters.

“Iran’s operations against terrorists will continue. No matter how long it takes, we will continue this operation and a bigger one,” said Maj. Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s Armed Forces.

PAK and other Iraq-based Kurdish-Iranian armed groups say they have not supported the protests in any concrete way. But they have called on the United States to intervene on behalf of the demonstrators, and have said they are prepared to help Kurds in Iran take up arms in case of a further escalation in Iran’s crisis.

“What’s happening on the streets with the protesters was not engineered at my base,” PAK’s leader, Gen. Hussein Yazdanpanah, told CNN. He was speaking from one of the group’s barracks that was blown up by Iranian missiles and drones on September 28, killing eight militants.

“(Iran) is using us as a scapegoat for the protests in Iran and to distract media attention from Iran,” said Yazdanpanah, who believes that he was the target of that attack.

“I won’t hide the fact that I am a military support for my people,” he said, standing amid the destruction at his base near the town of Altun Kupri. The stench of two militants slain in the attack, but whose bodies have not yet been recovered, rises up from the rubble.

“For a revolution to succeed there has to be military support for the people,” he added. “(Iran) wanted people to question this principle. (By bombing the base) they wanted to say to them that there is no military support to protect you.”

Across the country, protesters with a variety of grievances — namely related to the dire state of Iran’s economy and the marginalization of ethnic groups — have coalesced around an anti-regime movement that was ignited by Amini’s death. Women have been at the forefront of the protests, arguing that Amini’s demise at the hands of the notorious morality police highlights women’s plight under Islamic Republic laws that restrict their dress and behavior.

Kurds in Iran also saw their grievances reflected in Amini’s death. The young woman’s Kurdish name — Zhina — was banned by a clerical establishment that bars ethnic minority names, ostensibly to prevent sowing ethnic divisions in the country. Amini also was crying for help in her Kurdish mother tongue when morality police officers violently forced her into a van, according to activists.

The first large protests in Iran’s current uprising erupted in Amini’s Kurdish-majority hometown of Saqqez in western Iran, which has also been subjected to a violent crackdown. “When we were in Iran, I joined the protests with friends. Two days later, two of my friends got kidnapped and one of them got injured,” said one man who fled Saqqez to Iraqi Kurdistan, who CNN is not naming for security reasons.

Seated on carpet under a tree to avoid any identification of their safe house, the man and his family said they worry about the long arms of Iran’s regime. The family cover their faces with medical masks, the man wears long sleeves to cover identifying tattoos and a plastic tarp is hung up to obscure them from the ever-present fear of incoming Iranian drones.

He and his family decided to leave Iran when he saw security forces kill his friend near a mosque in the first days of the uprising, the man said. “How can they claim to be an Islamic Republic when I saw them murdering my friend outside a mosque?” he asked in disbelief.

He said the community could not retrieve his friend’s body until night fell, after which they secretly buried their dead. His testimony is similar to multiple accounts CNN has heard since the start of Iran’s uprising. Many in the Kurdish areas of Iran report opting not to receive medical care for injured protesters in hospitals, for fear of arrest by authorities. Eyewitnesses also say some have even avoided sending their dead to morgues, for fear of reprisals against family members.

Since they fled, dissidents in Iraqi Kurdistan say they remain in contact with the loved ones they left behind. Every phone call to their families comes with news of an intensified crackdown, as well as reports of people defying security forces and continuing to pour into the streets.

“From what I know, my family is part of the revolution and the revolution continues to this day,” said Rezan. “They are ready to die to get our rights.”

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Iran Protests Are Proving a Durable Challenge to the Islamic Republic

Three weeks after antigovernment protests erupted across Iran—sparked by the death of a woman detained for allegedly violating the country’s strict Islamic dress code—the movement has proved more durable than previous challenges to Tehran’s leaders and could pose a continuing threat.

Students across the country rallied outside universities on Sunday, chanting slogans including “death to the dictator,” and schoolgirls marched in the streets of Tehran waving their veils in the air, a gesture that has become a central expression of dissent. The governor of Kurdistan province on Sunday ordered universities closed, likely to avoid more protests. Stores across the country stayed closed as part of a widening strike of shopkeepers.

The demonstrations are unlikely to topple the government, at least in the short term, activists and political analysts said. But the deep disaffection they represent and the fact that they target a key pillar of the Islamic Republic and its foundational ideology make them a significant test.

Since the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman taken into custody by Iran’s morality police in September, protesters who initially focused on women’s rights have broadened their aims, calling for more freedom in life and politics and the ouster of the country’s Islamic leadership.

At the heart of the protests is the Islamic head covering, or hijab, which has been mandatory for Iranian women since 1983, four years after the Islamic revolution that brought the Islamic clerics to power.

“This moment is significant because it has unleashed the potential for longer-lasting civil disobedience,” said Narges Bajoghli, a Johns Hopkins University anthropologist who studies Iran. “Given that half the population must veil, this issue cuts across class, ethnicity and social position.”

Protests broke out in Iran in 2009 against the result of the country’s election.



Photo:

Ben Curtis/Associated Press

Mass protests in the streets of big cities—dispersed by the authorities with force—have given way to sporadic but frequent and widespread demonstrations involving women removing their headscarves. It is a type of everyday resistance that is difficult for authorities to stop.

The spontaneous, unpredictable nature of the movement creates a form of whack-a-mole for security forces who are already stretched thin in Tehran and beyond, while images of pro-government toughs using force against unveiled schoolgirls is amplifying public anger.

The hijab is central to the Islamic Republic’s raison d’être. It is the most visible symbol of adherence to its ultraconservative interpretation of Islam, in which women’s dignity must be protected by modest clothing. And it is a political tool to control half of the population in the public sphere.

The movement has upended the Iranian authorities’ playbook for suppressing protests. Tehran has used violence to put down previous uprisings, even as other Middle Eastern governments tumbled. Iranian leaders have managed to consolidate their hold on power and go back to business as usual.

Previous mass protests were rooted in allegations of election fraud or economic hardship, and never captured the support of enough Iranians to overwhelm the government or force it to make significant concessions.

The latest protests have unprecedented support from Iranians across class, gender and age, and come after years of economic hardship that has driven millions of Iranians into desperation.

Protesters in Tehran chant slogans during a demonstration over the death of a woman who was detained by the morality police.



Photo:

Associated Press

Universities and schools have become the most recent hotbeds of opposition, with girls as young as high-school age and preteens removing headscarves and telling Education Ministry officials and paramilitary commanders to “get lost.”

Artists have jumped in with work that supports civil disobedience. Last week, an anonymous artist poured red paint in famous fountains in Tehran in a work he called “Tehran Drowned in Blood,” according to photos and footage posted by activist network 1500tasvir.

“Baraye,” a song composed from tweets about Iranian women’s struggle for freedom by singer Shervin Hajipour, has become an anthem of the uprising.

Iranian public-opinion surveys are often unreliable. But the number of people espousing staunch support for the Islamic Republic appears to be shrinking.

According to a poll in March by Gamaan, an independent research group based in the Netherlands, 18% of Iranians want to preserve the values and ideals of the Islamic Revolution. The survey involved about 17,000 respondents living in Iran. A 2020 study by the group found 72% of Iranians opposed mandatory veiling.

The crackdown by security forces on demonstrators has fueled more public anger. Dozens have been killed, including at least three teenage girls whose faces have become rallying images of the movement. On Saturday, state television was hacked by a group of activists who posted the pictures of the three girls during a live broadcast, and projected onto the screen an image of Supreme Leader

Ali Khamenei

in flames.

“Every family, to some extent, has been harassed by the state,” said Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, a former Iranian lawmaker now based in the U.S. as executive director of the Nonviolent Initiative for Democracy, a pro-democracy activist group. “This dissatisfaction and anger has been there, beneath the skin of society, for a number of years.”

Protesters near a rally in Tehran in 2009.



Photo:

/Associated Press

Adding to the uncertainty of the leadership, there have long been rumors of the declining health of 83-year-old Mr. Khamenei, who has been in power since 1989. Were he to die, the forced shuffle of power would likely embolden protesters further and potentially create cracks in the leadership.

Protesters have responded to government violence by adapting. Many have sought refuge inside universities or taken to rooftops to chant slogans such as “Death to the dictator.” Others prepare for clashes with law enforcement.

“We are no longer frightened,” said a protester in Tehran who had been beaten by members of the Basij militia during a recent rally for not covering her hair.

When preparing for a protest, the woman said she wears dark clothing, removes her jewelry, covers her tattoos and dons a surgical mask. She said she packs extra clothes, water, a lighter and vinegar in case she and fellow demonstrators are hit with tear gas or worse.

“I don’t usually take my phone with me, and if I do, I make sure to delete all the information that would cause trouble for me,” she said.

The Islamic Republic has clashed with the population in the streets numerous times since its inception in 1979, and with increased frequency.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

Do you think the protests in Iran will fundamentally change the governance of the country? Join the conversation below.

Student protests in 1999 and the Green Movement in 2009, which protested against alleged vote rigging, as well as demonstrations in 2017 and 2019 against the government’s economic policies, all mostly called for reforms within the existing system. Now, Iranians are calling for a wholesale overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

The current movement has no designated leaders and no coordinating body. That is both a strength and a potential weakness, said Mohammad Ali Kadivar, associate professor at Boston College and an expert on pro-democracy movements in Iran.

The leaderless nature makes it difficult for the government to decapitate the movement. The arrest in 2011 of opposition leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi practically ended the Green Movement. But it also makes the movement less agile in making tactical changes, and if the government at a later stage wants to negotiate, it needs leaders to do that with, Mr. Kadivar said.

The real strength of the movement lies in its inclusion of marginalized groups, Mr. Kadivar said. Ms. Amini, whose death sparked the protests three weeks ago, was a Sunni-Muslim Kurdish woman in a majority Shia country. “Everything about her identity was marginalized,” he said. “The leadership of women is new, and the cross-ethnic solidarity wasn’t there before.”

Unions of bus drivers, oil workers and teachers have in the past gone on strike in protest against poor economic conditions, and if they coordinate efforts, they could dramatically shift the balance of power, said Roham Alvandi, an associate professor at the London School of Economics with expertise in Iranian history.

“The question is if they can translate these protests into something like a general strike,” Mr. Alvandi said, adding that the uprising is still in its early days. “If they can, then I think this is pretty much the end of this regime.”

So far, the unions aren’t known to have coordinated large-scale action.

Protesters are also younger than they ever have been. In recent days, footage has emerged of Iranian children and high-school students confronting government officials and stomping on pictures of Mr. Khamenei and his predecessor,

Ruhollah Khomeini.

“The Islamic Republic is going to have a hard time governing this generation,” Mr. Kadivar said.

Write to Sune Engel Rasmussen at sune.rasmussen@wsj.com

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