Tag Archives: Citigroup

Citigroup Discriminated Against Armenian Americans, Regulator Says – The New York Times

  1. Citigroup Discriminated Against Armenian Americans, Regulator Says The New York Times
  2. Citi targeted Armenian Americans and treated them like criminals, US regulator alleges CNN
  3. Citi fined $25.9M for discriminating against Armenian Americans after government probe Yahoo Finance
  4. Britain Targets Russian Gold, Oil Sectors In New Sanctions Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
  5. CFPB Orders Citi to Pay $25.9 Million for Intentional, Illegal Discrimination Against Armenian Americans Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
  6. View Full Coverage on Google News

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Wall Street layoffs pick up steam as Citigroup and Barclays cut hundreds of workers

A trader, center, wears a Citigroup jacket while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Global investment banks Citigroup and Barclays cut advisory and trading personnel this week as Wall Street grapples with sharp declines in revenue and dimming prospects for next year.

New York-based Citigroup let go of roughly 50 trading personnel this week, according to people with knowledge of the moves who declined to be identified speaking about layoffs. The firm also cut dozens of banking roles amid a slump deal-making activity, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.

London-based Barclays cut about 200 positions across its banking and trading desks this week, according to a person with knowledge of the decision.

The moves show the industry has returned to an annual ritual that’s been part of what has defined life on Wall Street: Cutting workers who are deemed to be underperformers. The practice, which had been on pause the last few years amid a boom in deals activity, returned after Goldman Sachs laid off hundreds of employees in September.

While shallow in nature, especially compared with far deeper cuts occurring in tech firms including Meta and Stripe, the moves may only be the start of a trend if capital markets remain moribund.

Equity issuance plunged 78% this year through October as the IPO market remained mostly frozen, according to SIFMA data. Debt issuance has also fallen off as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates, slumping 30% through September.

No reprieve in 2023

In recent weeks, executives have grown pessimistic, saying that revenue from robust activity in parts of the fixed-income world has probably peaked this year, and that equities revenue will continue to decline amid a bear market in stocks.

“Most of the banks are budgeting for declines in revenue next year,” according to a person involved with providing data and analytics to the industry. “Investors know the general direction of the market, at least in the first half, and the thinking is that client demand for hedging has probably peaked.”

Among Wall Street players, beleaguered Credit Suisse is contending with the deepest cuts, thanks to pressure to overhaul its money-losing investment bank. The firm has said it is cutting 2,700 employees in the fourth quarter and aims to slash a total of 9,000 positions by 2025.

But even workers toiling at Wall Street’s winners — firms that have gained market share from European banks in recent years — aren’t immune.

Underperformers may also be at risk at JPMorgan Chase, which will use selective end-of-year cuts, attrition and smaller bonuses to rein in expenses, according to a person with knowledge of the bank’s plans.

Morgan Stanley is also examining job cuts, although the scope of a potential reduction in force hasn’t been decided, according to a person with knowledge of the company. Lists of workers who will be terminated have been drawn up in Asian banking operations, Reuters reported last week.

To be sure, managers at Barclays, JPMorgan and elsewhere say they are still hiring to fill in-demand roles and looking to upgrade positions amid the industry retrenchment.

Spokespeople for the banks declined to comment on their personnel decisions.

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Madcap Markets Push Goldman Sachs To Higher Trading Revenue, but Profit Falls

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

GS 2.51%

said Monday that second-quarter earnings fell 47%, capping an earnings season where weak and volatile markets crimped investment banking revenue across the industry but boosted trading.

But what was bad for investment bankers was good for traders. Widespread volatility meant investors placed more trades across a variety of asset classes, and banks took advantage. At Goldman, second-quarter trading revenue rose 32% to $6.5 billion. The other banks also reported big increases in trading revenue.

However, all the major U.S. banks reported double-digit declines in profit, and most of them missed analysts’ expectations. Year-ago results were juiced by reserve releases across the industry, when the banks let go of some of the money they had socked away for pandemic losses.

This year so far has marked a comedown from what had been near-perfect conditions for Wall Street at the height of the pandemic. The stimulus from governments and central bankers in response to Covid led to a swift recovery from a recession and ebullient capital markets. The effects of the pandemic also led to changes in how customers and businesses operate, which sent corporate chieftains on a deal making spree.

The current environment is far less friendly. The highest inflation in decades, sharply higher interest rates, and significant geopolitical concerns have sent markets for a loop, with the S&P 500 recently finishing its worst first half in more than 50 years. That uncertainty has given corporate executives pause about taking their companies public or selling additional stock.

Likewise, the U.S. economy has been flashing disparate signals about its health. The finances of U.S. consumers and businesses remain relatively strong. Executives at Bank of America, which also reported second-quarter results on Monday, said their customers were spending and borrowing at a strong clip.

But higher costs for groceries, gas and rent are hurting many consumers, and U.S. households have started spending some of the savings they accumulated during the pandemic. Bank executives across the industry are concerned about a possible recession, although they haven’t seen clear evidence of one just yet.

Goldman CEO David Solomon noted conflicting signals on the inflation outlook.



Photo:

patrick t. fallon/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Goldman CEO

David Solomon

pointed to conflicting signals on the inflation outlook Monday. He said the bank’s corporate clients continue to experience persistent inflation in their own supply chains, but added that the firm’s economists expect inflation to slow in the rest of the year.

Goldman’s second-quarter profit fell to $2.9 billion from $5.5 billion a year ago. Revenue fell 23% to $11.9 billion, though both beat the expectations of analysts polled by FactSet.

Bank of America’s profit fell 32% to $6.2 billion and revenue rose 6% to $22.7 billion.

Goldman shares rose 2.5%. Bank of America shares were roughly flat.

Within the investment banks, stock-selling businesses were hit especially hard. In 2021, companies raced to go public via initial public offerings and blank-check companies known as SPACs. That activity has ground to a halt so far this year.

Goldman is planning to slow its hiring pace in the second half of the year, after staffing up for the pandemic deal making boom. The bank had 47,000 employees at the end of June, up from about 41,000 a year ago. Finance chief

Denis Coleman

also said the bank would bring back annual performance reviews for its workers, a practice Goldman had mostly suspended during the pandemic.

Bank Earnings Center

More coverage and analysis on the latest financial results from Wall Street

Citigroup executives said last week they expected the slowdown to be temporary and wouldn’t change their pace of hiring more investment bankers. “You’re going to see us take a strategic look at this and a long-term look rather than just a shooting from the hip on the expenses side, because we’re building the firm for the long term here,” CEO

Jane Fraser

said.

At Bank of America, where total investment banking revenue fell 46%, Chief Financial Officer

Alastair Borthwick

said investment banking would “rise back to more normal levels in the next few quarters when economic uncertainty becomes more muted.”

Total trading revenue grew 25% at Citigroup, 21% at Morgan Stanley, 15% at JPMorgan and 11% at Bank of America. Goldman’s 32% jump was powered by a big rise in fixed income, currencies and commodities.

JPMorgan generated more trading revenue than any second quarter except during the middle of the pandemic and notched its best-ever second quarter for equities trading.

“Trading markets whipsawed with each release of economic data during the quarter,”

Daniel Pinto,

JPMorgan’s president and the head of the corporate and investment bank, told staff in a memo last week.

Write to Charley Grant at charles.grant@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Citigroup (C) 2Q 2022 earnings beats

Jane Fraser, CEO of Citi, says she is convinced Europe will fall into recession as it faces the impact of the war in Ukraine and the resultant energy crisis.

Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

Citigroup on Friday posted second-quarter results that beat analysts’ expectations for profit and revenue as the firm benefited from rising interest rates and strong trading results.

Here’s what the bank reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

  • Earnings per share: $2.19 vs $1.68 expected
  • Revenue: $19.64 billion vs $18.22 billion expected

Shares of the bank rose 8% in early New York trading.

Profit declined 27% to $4.55 billion, or $2.19 per share, from $6.19 billion, or $2.85, a year earlier, the New York-based bank said in a statement, as the bank set aside funds for anticipated loan losses. But earnings handily exceeded expectations for the quarter as analysts have been slashing estimates for the industry in recent weeks.

Revenue rose a bigger-than-expected 11% in the quarter to $19.64 billion, more than $1 billion over estimates, as the bank reaped more interest income and saw strong results in its trading division and institutional services business. Net interest income jumped 9% to $11.96 billion, topping the $11.21 billion estimate of analysts surveyed by Street Account.

Of the four major banks to report second-quarter results this week, only Citigroup topped expectations for revenue.

“In a challenging macro and geopolitical environment, our team delivered solid results and we are in a strong position to weather uncertain times, given our liquidity, credit quality and reserve levels,” Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said in the release.

Corporate cash management, Wall Street trading and consumer credit cards performed well in the quarter, she noted.

The firm’s institutional clients group posted a 20% jump in revenue to $11.4 billion, roughly $1.1 billion more than analysts had expected, driven by strong trading results and growth in the bank’s corporate cash management business. Treasury and trade solutions generated a 33% increase in revenue to $3 billion.

Fixed income trading revenue surged 31% to $4.1 billion, edging out the $4.06 billion estimate, thanks to strong activity on rates, currencies and commodities desks, Citigroup said. Equities trading revenue rose 8% to $1.2 billion, just under the $1.31 billion estimate.

Similar to peers, investment banking revenue dropped a steep 46% to $805 million, missing the $922.8 million estimate.

Bank stocks have been hammered this year over concerns that the U.S. is facing a recession, which would lead to a surge in loan losses. Like the rest of the industry, Citigroup is also contending with a sharp decline in investment banking revenue, offset by the boost to trading results in the quarter.

Despite Friday’s stock gain, Citigroup remains the cheapest of the six biggest U.S. banks from a valuation perspective. The stock was down 27% in 2022, as of Thursday’s close, when its shares hit a 52-week low.

To help turn around the firm, Fraser has announced plans to exit retail banking markets outside the U.S. and set medium-term return targets in March.

Earlier Friday, Wells Fargo posted mixed results as the bank set aside funds for bad loans and was stung by declines in its equity holdings.

On Thursday, bigger rival JPMorgan Chase posted results that missed expectations as it built reserves for bad loans, and Morgan Stanley disappointed on a worse-than-expected slowdown in investment banking fees.

Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are scheduled to report results on Monday.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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Citigroup Sales Hit European Stock Markets With ‘Flash Crash’

Several European stock markets suffered a “flash crash” on Monday morning following sell orders by

Citigroup Inc.,

C 1.04%

according to people familiar with the matter.

Trading was halted momentarily in several markets after major stock indexes plunged for a few minutes just before 10 a.m. Central European time. Stocks in the Nordic region were hit the hardest, though other European stocks also tumbled briefly on a day when share prices around the globe declined.

Nasdaq and

Euronext

NV, which operate stock exchanges across the region, said they are investigating the cause. Nasdaq said it hasn’t seen any reason to cancel trades.

The nature and extent of the sales by

Citi

group weren’t immediately clear. Citi declined to comment.

Investors thought the incident may have been caused by human error, known in industry parlance as a “fat finger.” 

The trading floor of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, which is operated by Euronext.



Photo:

Yuriko Nakao/Bloomberg News

Sweden’s benchmark index, the OMX Stockholm All-Share, fell nearly 8% before largely rebounding. Denmark’s equivalent index fell over 6% around the same time and also mostly recovered. Both closed down around 2%.

Markets run by Amsterdam-based Euronext also tumbled before largely recovering. The Dutch AEX index fell 3% and Belgium’s BEL20 declined over 5%. France’s CAC40 fell 3%. These indexes ended the day down more than 1%. 

Euronext temporarily halted trading to try to lower the impact on markets, according to a spokesman. Nasdaq said it used circuit breakers in the immediate aftermath of the crash on major stocks on Nordic exchanges, including

Kone

Oyj and

Stora Enso

Oyj.  

Fat finger trades can be costly. In 2009, an oil trader on a bender placed around $520 million of trades for crude oil, saddling his company with $10 million in losses. In 2012, financial services firm Knight Capital lost $440 million from a computer-trading glitch that entered millions of trades in less than an hour.

Citigroup

C 1.04%

has a history of untimely errors. In 2020, it was ordered by regulators to clean up systems meant to safeguard the bank and its clients and fined $400 million. It is spending billions of dollars to transform its technology and inner workings, a cost that has investors anxious. Chief Executive

Jane Fraser

has said it is the bank’s top priority to get it right.

The most recent pratfall came in August 2020, when Citigroup bankers accidentally paid the bondholders of client

Revlon Inc.

nearly $900 million.

On Monday, Citigroup shares were up fractionally in New York at $48.48.

Write to Anna Hirtenstein at anna.hirtenstein@wsj.com and David Benoit at David.Benoit@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Citigroup Sticks With Its Covid-19 Vaccine Mandate, While GE Drops Its Rules

Citigroup Inc.

C -1.25%

is sticking with its Covid-19 vaccine mandate for its U.S. workers.

General Electric Co.

GE 0.68%

is not.

The two American companies are going in opposite directions after the Supreme Court blocked Thursday the Biden administration’s rule that big employers require their employees to get vaccines or submit to testing.

Citigroup, which has about 65,000 employees in the U.S., said it had reached 99% compliance one day before a Jan. 14 deadline the bank had set for U.S. workers to get vaccinated or request an accommodation for medical or religious reasons.

“Our goal has always been to keep everyone at Citi, and we sincerely hope all of our colleagues take action to comply,” the company’s human-resources chief Sara Wechter said in a LinkedIn post on Thursday after the high court’s decision.

The bank previously told employees anyone who was still unvaccinated would be placed on unpaid leave, according to people familiar with the matter. Their employment would terminate on Jan. 31, the people said. Saturday, after a wave of last minute vaccinations, around 150 employees were being placed on leave, one of the people said. They could keep their jobs if they comply by the end of the month.

General Electric suspended its remaining Covid-19 vaccine requirements.



Photo:

alwyn scott/Reuters

Citigroup and GE announced vaccine requirements for U.S. staff in October, after the Biden administration said large employers and government contractors would be required to enforce vaccination mandates. Both companies count the U.S. government as an important client.

At the start of 2021, GE had about 56,000 employees in the U.S. It originally told them they were required to get vaccinated or seek a religious or medical accommodation by early December. It suspended that policy in December after a court challenge temporarily blocked the rule for federal contractors.

The manufacturer still required U.S. employees to show proof of vaccination or submit to testing under the White House’s mandate for companies with more than 100 workers, until the Supreme Court blocked that policy on Thursday.

GE on Friday suspended its remaining Covid-19 vaccine requirements, a spokeswoman said. The company said most of U.S. employees are vaccinated and it was on track to comply with the federal contractor executive order before the court injunction.

Write to Thomas Gryta at thomas.gryta@wsj.com and David Benoit at david.benoit@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Bank Stocks: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup Earnings Top Views

JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings early Friday, amid the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates in the coming months and omicron’s impact on the economy. JPM stock and Citigroup fell in premarket trade while  Wells Fargo rose.




X



The reports come as expectations for Federal Reserve policy changes send bond yields and interest rates higher. Higher interest rates benefit banks, which make more money on the loans they extend. CFRA Research analyst Kenneth Leon says in a recent note to clients that consumer loan activity is improving but is still below pre-pandemic levels. In March 2020, bank consumer loans peaked at $859 billion and then fell to a low of $743 billion in April 2021. The December 2021 bank consumer loan balances are just under $800 billion.

Omicron Impact

Meanwhile, big banks will also be affected by a slowdown in consumer spending as inflation spiked in Q4 and omicron ripped through the country.

“The near term brings uncertainty and some weakness about the path for consumer spending, due to the seasonal slow period and potential omicron effects,” Leon said. “We think this may be transitory if the omicron variant can be put under control, especially as we head into the 2022 spring season.”


CPI Inflation Rate Hits New 39-Year High, But Dow Jones Rises


Investment activity continues to be brisk. Equity capital markets activity was up 19% year over year to $1.3 trillion in 2021, marking the strongest period since records began in 1980, Leon wrote. 

“Equity trading volumes and transaction fees have increased significantly with greater investor participation, with equity inflows and active trading from retail investors,” Leon wrote. “We think investment banks could realize 8%-10% plus growth year over year in debt underwriting fees from new issuances, driven by high yield corporate bond issuances.”

Elsewhere, big banks will have less cash reserves to release into bottom lines this quarter. They had built up huge cash reserves at the start of the pandemic, anticipating loan repayment defaults as folks lost their jobs. However, many of those reserves were not needed and released back into bottom lines over the last several quarters. As a result, there are fewer of those funds to bring over this quarter to boost profits.

JPMorgan Earnings

Estimates: FactSet analysts saw JPMorgan earnings of $3 per share, a 21% drop from the year-ago period. Revenue was seen coming in at $29.78 billion, a 1.3% decline from last year.

Results: JPMorgan earnings per share dipped to $3.33 a share, while revenue edged up to $30.35 billion.

JPMorgan earnings got a boost from releasing $1.3 billion from loan loss reserves. Lending picked up, especially in its wealth management division.

Bank Stocks: JPM Stock 

Shares fell 3.2% to 162.90 in early Friday stock market trading. JPM stock has a flat-base buy point of 173.06, according to MarketSmith chart analysis.

Shares have gained over the last several days, after gapping up above their 50-day line on Jan. 4. JPM stock’s relative strength line is trending upward. Its RS Rating is a 77 out of a best-possible 99. Its EPS Rating is 79.

Wells Fargo Earnings

Estimates: Analysts expected Wells Fargo earnings of $1.04 per share, a 63% surge from the same period last year. Views are for revenue of $18.79 billion, a 4.8% increase.

Results: GAAP earnings came in at $1.38 a share, while revenue jumped to $20.86 billion.

Wells Fargo Stock

Shares rose 2.7% to 57.50 early Friday. WFC stock is extended after an early-January breakout above a flat-base buy point of 52.66. WFC stock has an RS Rating of 95 and an EPS Rating of 68. Its relative strength line is trending upward, reaching highs not seen since last April.

Citigroup Earnings

Estimates: Analysts saw Citigroup earnings per share of $1.72, 16.8% below the year-ago quarter. Revenue was expected to increase 2.1% to $16.85 billion.

Results: Citigroup earnings per share edged higher to $1.99 adjusted. Revenue climbed to to $17.02 billion. Investment banking revenue leapt 43%.

Citigroup earlier Friday agreed to sell banking operations in four Southeast Asian countries for $2.7 billion. Its Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam operations are being acquired by Singapore-based United Overseas Bank.

Citigroup Stock

Shares dipped 1.7% to 66.60 in premarket trade. Citigroup stock is climbing toward a double-bottom buy point of 74.74. Shares clawed back above their 50-day line after bottoming out in December.

Citigroup’s relative strength line is moving upward again after slumping for several weeks. Its RS Rating is still just 39, while its EPS Rating is a solid 89.

Follow Adelia Cellini Linecker on Twitter @IBD_Adelia.

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Citigroup to enforce ‘no-jab, no-job’ policy starting Jan. 14 – source

The Citigroup Inc (Citi) in Toronto, Ontario, Canada October 19, 2017. Picture taken October 19, 2017. REUTERS/Chris Helgren/File Photo

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Jan 7 (Reuters) – Citigroup Inc (C.N) will begin enforcing a previously announced “no-jab, no job” policy as of Jan. 14, according to a source familiar with the matter, making it the first major Wall Street institution to implement a strict COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

The move comes as the financial industry, which has long been keen to get back to business as usual, grapples with how to safely bring workers back to the office amid the spread of the highly infectious Omicron coronavirus variant.

Other major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs & Co, (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), are telling unvaccinated staff to work from home, but have not yet gone as far as terminating their employment.

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While Citigroup is the first Wall Street bank to enforce a vaccine mandate, a handful of other major U.S. companies have introduced “no-jab, no-job” policies, including Google and United Airlines, with varying degrees of stringency.

Citigroup said in October it would require U.S. employees to be vaccinated as a condition of their employment but did not say when it would begin enforcing the new policy.

The bank said at the time it was complying with the policy of Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration requiring all workers supporting government contracts to be fully vaccinated, as the government remains a “large and important” client of Citi.

Citigroup will assess exemptions on religious or medical grounds, or any other accommodation by state or local law, on a case-to-case basis, the bank said at the time.

The source said the bank would begin enforcing that policy as of Jan. 14, but did not provide further details.

The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday was hearing arguments over requests by Republican state officials and business groups to block a Biden vaccine mandate for employers with more than 100 workers.

Bloomberg first reported Citigroup’s Jan. 14 deadline on Friday. Citigroup will place workers who do not comply by then on unpaid leave, with their last day of employment at the end of the month, the news outlet reported.

More than 90% of Citigroup staff have so far complied with the mandate and that figure is rising rapidly, Bloomberg reported, citing a Citigroup spokeswoman.

Many financial companies have pushed back their return-to-office plans and are encouraging staff to get vaccinated and boosted, but have so far avoided vaccine mandates for legal reasons.

“This is going to be a challenging and complex policy to implement. The problem here is there are a variety of different laws that weigh in on this,” said Chase Hattaway, a partner at law firm RumbergerKirk, noting both federal and anti-discrimination laws as well as a patchwork of state rules.

“Citi will have to tailor its policy to state legislation, and in many cases, cities and municipalities will have different regulations as well, that may require even further carve-outs,” Hattaway said.

BIDEN MANDATES

The Biden administration has used regulations to require businesses with at least 100 employees to require vaccination or weekly testing of employees.

An increasing number of U.S. companies have been using vaccine requirements to protect staff and operations from disruptions.

United Airlines Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said last month the carrier fired 200 of its 67,000 employees for failure to comply with its mandate.

Many hospitals have fired staff for failing to comply with mandates, which have been imposed on the healthcare industry in more than 20 states.

While some companies such as Tyson Foods Inc (TSN.N) have gotten more than 96% of its employees to take a vaccine, those in construction and retail have resisted vaccine mandates over fears of staff resistance amid a very tight labor market.

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Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru and David Henry in New York; Additional reporting by Tom Hals; Writing by Michelle Price; Editing by Amy Caren Daniel, Nick Zieminski and Jonathan Oatis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Omicron Starts to Slow U.S. Economy as Consumer Spending Flags

The number of diners seated at restaurants nationwide was down 15% in the week ended Dec. 22 from the same period in 2019, a steeper decline than in late November, data from reservations site OpenTable show. U.S. hotel occupancy was at 53.8% for the week ended Dec. 18, slightly below the previous week’s level, according to STR, a global hospitality data and analytics company.

Rising case numbers are leading many businesses to close for a short period, entertainment venues to cancel shows, universities to shift classes online and offices to delay or reverse reopening plans.

“We are still on track for very strong fourth-quarter consumption, but I am now seeing that that momentum continues to fade,” said

Aneta Markowska,

chief economist at Jefferies LLC.

Still, low unemployment, substantial savings and briskly rising wages are giving Americans money to spend. Many are also eager to go out and gather with family after nearly two years of social-distancing protocols. In the 10 days through Dec. 22, the number of travelers passing through Transportation Security Administration checkpoints was more than double the number of passengers flying in the same period of 2020, though still below 2019 levels.

Employers are clinging to workers in a tight labor market. Jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, were unchanged at 205,000 in the week ended Dec. 18, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims are hovering near the lowest level in more than half a century despite rising concerns about Omicron.

Consumers boosted their spending by 0.6% last month, a slowdown from 1.4% growth in October, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Economists attributed part of the November slowdown to consumers shifting their holiday purchases a month earlier, amid warnings of potential shortages due to supply-chain problems.

For now, economists expect the highly contagious Omicron variant to cause a short-term soft patch for spending and broader economic growth as some people stay home.

Many economists have lowered their growth projections for early 2022 due to growing concerns about the latest surge in coronavirus cases. The forecasting-firm Oxford Economics now expects U.S. gross domestic product to grow at a 2.5% annual rate in the first quarter, down from a previous estimate of 3.4% growth.

Much of the difference in output could be delayed, rather than lost altogether. Economists at Nomura lowered GDP forecasts for the current quarter and the first quarter of 2022, in part reflecting forecasts for weaker consumer spending tied to Omicron. However, they expect growth to pick up in the second half of next year as pandemic-induced supply-chain disruptions ease and inventory investment that was pushed off materializes.

Though each wave of rising Covid-19 cases appears to be less detrimental to the economy than the one before it, some economists say that Omicron poses different threats.

As the cost of groceries, clothing and electronics have gone up in the U.S., prices in Japan have stayed low. WSJ’s Peter Landers goes shopping in Tokyo to explain why steady prices, though good for your wallet, can be a sign of a slow-growing economy. Photo: Richard B. Levine/Zuma Press; Kim Kyung Hoon/Reuters

For instance, Omicron is hitting the Northeast harder than other recent virus surges. Businesses in the region tend to be more willing to impose their own restrictions to curtail the virus than some other areas of the country, said Ms. Markowska of Jefferies.

The economy is also further into the reopening process than earlier in the pandemic, meaning Omicron has the potential to reverse reopenings rather than just delay them, Ms. Markowska said. She said that office occupancy might decline due to Omicron’s spread, which could damp demand for services such as cafeterias.

CNN President

Jeff Zucker

on Saturday told staffers the network was closing its offices with the exception of those who need to be there to perform their jobs.

Ford Motor Co.

,

Uber Technologies Inc.

and

Alphabet Inc.’s

Google all delayed office returns recently amid Omicron’s spread.

Bars in New York and Nashville announced temporary closures due to breakthrough infections among staff. A museum at the University of Illinois at Chicago said it would shut its doors for over a month and only offer virtual tours amid the rapid spread of the Omicron variant.

Some of the most popular Broadway shows, including “Hamilton” and “The Lion King,” have canceled performances through Christmas. Harvard University said it would start the winter semester online for three weeks to reduce density on campus.

Omicron is also keeping some sick workers at home for a period. This sort of dynamic could further restrain factories’ ability to pump out goods. Product shortages have been a major impediment to consumers’ ability to spend.

“It’s not that there’s a lack of demand for goods; in fact, that’s been one of the big surprises of 2021,” said

Andrew Hollenhorst,

chief U.S. economist at

Citigroup Inc.

“It goes back to the supply chain. You just cannot source these goods.”

A dearth of available goods could drive inflation higher. The personal-consumption expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 5.7% in November from a year earlier, the fastest increase since 1982, the Commerce Department said Thursday. So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items, increased 4.7% year-over-year in November, the highest reading since 1989.

That meant after adjusting for inflation, consumer spending was unchanged in November from October, and after-tax personal income fell 0.2%.

So far, fast-rising costs don’t appear to be derailing consumers’ appetite to spend, though some individuals are concerned about the longer-term outlook for inflation.

David Esguerra,

a 35-year-old from Phoenix, said he has seen prices rise rapidly. Pet-grooming services—including a bath and nail trimming—for his terrier mix Sofie have shot up to about $80 from $60 last year. Croissants at the farmers market cost roughly $6 this year, up from $4 in 2020, he said.

The supply-chain engineer’s pay raise this year was below the rate of inflation. As a result, he has adjusted his spending habits. For instance, he sought out furniture on secondhand markets like Craigslist to outfit his new home, and he is cutting back on purchases of clothes, shoes and phone accessories.

Mr. Esguerra isn’t overly concerned about his ability to afford daily necessities in the short term. He worries, though, about whether this bout of inflation will last. “My concern is more about long-term, how is this going to affect my financial future?” he said. “Is inflation going to stay high?”

Waning fiscal stimulus could also influence some contours of the economy’s growth path. After the pandemic hit in spring 2020, the federal government responded with expanded unemployment benefits of up to $600 extra a week, multiple rounds of stimulus checks and a boost in the 2021 child tax credit by as much as $1,600 per child.

Americans are now running through large piles of extra cash they accumulated as a result of government stimulus. As they deplete their savings, some workers might re-enter the labor force and help businesses fill job openings and meet production needs. With a much smaller share of worker incomes coming from government stimulus spending, wage growth will become a more important source of spending power in the coming months.

Write to Sarah Chaney Cambon at sarah.chaney@wsj.com and Harriet Torry at harriet.torry@wsj.com

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Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser forecasts ‘brutal winter’ for markets

Severe supply chain disruptions forebode a “brutal winter” for markets, which could suffer from heightened uncertainty if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling well ahead of a December deadline, Citigroup (C) CEO Jane Fraser told Yahoo Finance at its All Markets Summit on Monday. 

She expressed optimism that the supply-demand imbalance could pass next year, but acknowledged that disruptions “could become more sustainable.” 

“We’re probably in for a bit of a brutal winter, particularly in the energy markets where there’s also some challenges there,” Fraser says. “But it’s not long-term structural stuff that we won’t adjust to.”

“This too shall pass,” she adds. “It’s going to pass probably in 2022.”

The remarks from Fraser echo recent sentiment from central bankers and other top CEOs, who’ve increasingly acknowledged that elevated prices will remain for the foreseeable future. 

Speaking on a panel last month, leaders of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan said that supply chain bottlenecks could cause heightened inflation for a prolonged period. But they signaled that prices would likely come down as pandemic-related supply disruptions return to normal.

At the Milken Institute Global Conference last week, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo echoed warnings of a persistent disruption, noting that the global chip shortage at the center of the supply chain bottleneck “is going to take a long time to fix.”

The U.S. and Canada each recorded inflation last month not seen for more than a decade. The U.S. reported a 5.4% rise in consumer prices in September, which amounted to a 13-year high for the annual rate; meanwhile, Canada saw prices rise 4.4% in September compared to the same month a year prior, an 18-year high.

“The question is therefore does this become something more sustained?” Fraser says. “We won’t know until next year.”

“I don’t think it will become a big issue, but it certainly is something that’s going to be choppy for the next while,” she adds. 

When describing potential upcoming market headwinds, Fraser also pointed to the approaching December deadline for Congress to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. 

Earlier this month, the Senate reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling by $480 billion, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said would allow the U.S. to pay its bills through Dec. 3. 

During a visit to the White House on Oct. 6, a day before the Senate agreement, Fraser urged an end to the impasse because “we just cannot wait until the last minute to resolve this.”

Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup, listens as President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with business leaders about the debt limit in the South Court Auditorium on the White House campus, Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Speaking to Yahoo Finance, Fraser reiterated that call for a speedy resolution as the December deadline approaches. The move would prevent additional uncertainty amid an already murky near-term financial future with persistent inflation, she said.

“We’ve stopped hearing people saying ‘transition’ or ‘transitory’ because it’s feeling a tad longer than that,” she says.

“It won’t be helped if the U.S. debt ceiling situation doesn’t get resolved on a more timely basis before December,” she adds.

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