Tag Archives: China Evergrande Group

China’s economy could be dragged down by loss of confidence in property sector

The loss of confidence in China’s property sector could feed into a contagion that would further drag down the Chinese economy, analysts warned.

The comments come after beleaguered developer China Evergrande Group failed to deliver a promised $300 billion restructuring plan over the weekend.

In filings with the Hong Kong stock exchange, Evergrande instead said it had “preliminary principles” in place for the restructuring of its offshore debts. It also said one of its subsidiaries, Evergrande Group (Nanchang), had been ordered to pay an unnamed guarantor 7.3 billion yuan ($1.08 billion) for failing to honor its debt obligations.

“For the government, the priority is to break the negative feedback loop that features the high leverage ratio and the liquidity crunch on the part of the developers,” Shuang Ding, Standard Chartered chief economist for Greater China and North Asia, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”

“That leads to a mortgage boycott and very low appetite on the part of the homebuyer, and that goes back to the developer because low sales affect its liquidity.”

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China is facing a mortgage repayment revolt, with homeowners across 22 cities refusing to pay their loans on unfinished housing projects.

“So if this problem is not handled properly, it will have a profound impact on the economy, including the government balance sheet, the banks’ balance sheet as well, and households,” Ding said.

Ding said the problems in China’s property sector threaten a crucial foundation of a sturdy economy: market confidence.

Land sales, which make up a dominant portion of provincial government revenue, have fallen 30% in the past year.

The economist said Beijing should ringfence the issues in the property sector and deal with them holistically, rather than with a piecemeal approach, with an aim to avoid mass insolvencies.

Dan Wang, Hang Seng Bank’s chief China economist, said the government can do this by making sure the companies in trouble have enough money to finish building half-started homes or complete a sold project. 

The Chinese politburo last week signaled the country could miss its 5.5% GDP growth target for the year, while new data showed China’s factory activity contracted unexpectedly in July after bouncing back from Covid-19 lockdowns in June. 

While Beijing is taking the property sector crisis seriously, it is unlikely the Evergrande crisis will be resolved anytime soon and may never be resolved at all, CreditSights’ co-head of Asia-Pacific research Sandra Chow said. 

“I think it’s going to take a long time for investors to get confidence not just in Evergrande, but in the China property sector as a whole,” Chow said.

“China’s property market is in difficulty, still, despite all the easing measures and asset values are still falling, especially in the lower tier regions as well. So it’s going to be very difficult to rebuild confidence.”

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Hong Kong stocks continue rebound; oil prices jump 3%

SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific rose in Monday morning trade, as investors reacted to the release of China’s latest benchmark lending rate. Oil prices also jumped around 3%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led gains regionally on Monday, climbed 1.18% in early trade. The city’s benchmark finished more than 4% higher last week following a volatile week which swung between big gains and losses.

Trading in the Hong Kong-listed shares of China Evergrande and its property services and new energy vehicle unit was halted on Monday, according to exchange notices. No immediate reason was given for the trading halts.

Mainland Chinese stocks were also higher, with the Shanghai composite up fractionally and the Shenzhen component advancing 0.363%.

China’s one-year loan prime rate was kept unchanged at 3.7% on Monday, largely in line with expectations from a Reuters survey.

The S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.28% in Australia, with South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.18%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.43% higher.

Oil prices were higher in the morning of Asia trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude futures up 3.07% to $111.24 per barrel. U.S. crude futures climbed 3.12% to $107.97 per barrel.

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Markets in Japan are closed on Monday for a holiday.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 98.303 — off levels above 98.5 seen recently.

The Japanese yen traded at 119.25 per dollar following its weakening last week from levels below 118.2 against the greenback. The Australian dollar changed hands at $0.7409, as compared with levels below $0.721 seen last week.

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Investors await U.S. inflation data, RBI rate decision

SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed in Thursday trade as investors await the release of U.S. consumer inflation data.

Mainland Chinese stocks were lower by the afternoon, with the Shanghai composite down 0.1% while the Shenzhen component dipped 0.787%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.44%. Hong Kong-listed shares of China Evergrande Group soared about 3%. The embattled developer aims to deliver 600,000 apartments in 2022, but was not looking to a fire sale of its assets to clear its debts, Reuters reported Wednesday.

In India, the Nifty 50 rose 0.32% while the BSE Sensex gained 0.28%.

The Reserve Bank of India’s governor announced Thursday that the monetary policy committee voted to keep the repo rate — or the rate at which the central bank lends to commercial lenders — unchanged at 4%.

The RBI’s reverse repo rate, or the rate at which commercial banks lend to the central bank, also remained steady at 3.35%.

Following that announcement, the Indian rupee was at 75.04 per dollar, weaker than an earlier high of 74.778 seen against the greenback.

Elsewhere, the Nikkei 225 in Japan gained 0.36% while the Topix index rose 0.41%. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.32%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.28%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan gained 0.21%.

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Looking ahead, the U.S. consumer price index report is set to be released Thursday stateside.

Overnight stateside, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 305.28 points to 35,768.06 while the S&P 500 gained 1.45% to 4,587.18. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed, surging 2.08% to 14,490.37.

Currencies and oil

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 95.539.

The Japanese yen traded at 115.60 per dollar, still weaker than levels below 115 seen against the greenback earlier this week. The Australian dollar was at $0.7173, largely holding on to gains after its climb from below $0.712 earlier in the week.

Oil prices were mildly higher in the afternoon of Asia trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude futures rising just 0.02% to $91.57 per barrel. U.S. crude futures gained 0.07% to $89.72 per barrel.

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China Evergrande shares briefly pop in reopen after developer says contracted sales dropped 38.7% in 2021

An exterior view of China Evergrande Centre in Hong Kong, China March 26, 2018.

Bobby Yip | Reuters

BEIJING — Indebted property developer China Evergrande’s contracted sales plunged last year as the real estate giant struggled to repay creditors.

A filing Tuesday showed the company’s contracted sales of properties totaled 443.02 billion yuan ($69.22 billion) last year, down 38.7% from the 723.25 billion yuan in contracted sales reported for 2020.

Evergrande shares reopened higher in Hong Kong on Tuesday afternoon, with shares trying to hold gains of about 3% before turning lower.

Trading was halted as of 9 a.m. Monday, with shares at 1.59 Hong Kong dollars (20 cents) each. That’s just above the all-time intraday low of 1.42 Hong Kong dollars per share set on Dec. 24, according to FactSet.

The company added it “will continue to actively maintain communication with creditors, strive to resolve risks and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of all parties.”

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Evergrande shares have plunged more than 88% over the last 250 trading days. The company missed payments to creditors in December, Fitch Ratings said, sending the developer into default.

Evergrande is the largest Chinese real estate developer by issuance of offshore, U.S. dollar-denominated debt, which stood at $19 billion last year. The developer had a total of $300 billion in liabilities as of last year.

The company was China’s second largest developer by sales in 2020.

Like other Chinese real estate developers, Evergrande’s business model relies heavily on sales of apartments to customers before the units are completed. S&P Global Ratings said in November that an Evergrande default “is highly likely” since the company is no longer able to sell new homes.

Evergrande added that a demolition order for its Ocean Flower Island project only applied to 39 buildings, according to Tuesday’s filing with the Hong Kong stock exchange.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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China’s property developers have more than just big bond payments coming up

Migrant workers build a scaffold at the construction site of Huayang Commercial City Phase II in Huai ‘an City, east China’s Jiangsu Province, Feb. 7, 2021.

Costfoto | Barcroft Media | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s struggling real estate developers face a growing number of repayment deadlines in the next few months.

Real estate giant China Evergrande finally defaulted earlier this month without immediately sparking the widespread contagion that global investors had worried about. But the amount of debt and bills the industry faces will only grow in coming months.

Chinese developers face $19.8 billion in maturing offshore, U.S.-dollar denominated bonds in the first quarter, and $18.5 billion in the second, estimates Nomura analysts Ting Lu and Jing Wang.

That first-quarter amount is nearly double the $10.2 billion in maturities of the fourth quarter, the analysts said in a note Tuesday.

Assuming the U.S. dollar holds steady at 6.4 Chinese yuan, the analysts said that including onshore, yuan-denominated bonds brings the total amount of maturing bonds to 191 billion yuan ($29.84 billion) in the fourth quarter, 210 billion in the first and 209 billion in the second.

“However, in view of potential RMB depreciation pressures and surging offshore funding costs amid rising credit defaults, we believe the repayment pressure for developers in the offshore bond markets could be even higher,” the Nomura analysts said.

The yuan, also called the renminbi or RMB, has strengthened against the greenback in recent weeks to trade around 6.37 yuan per U.S. dollar.

But going forward, Fitch Ratings said it expects the yuan to weaken due to a decline in overseas demand for Chinese products and divergence in China’s monetary policy from the U.S. The People’s Bank of China has lowered some key rates in the last week, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has been signaling more aggressive removal of stimulus.

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Fitch expects the yuan to weaken to 6.7 versus the U.S. dollar by the end of next year, analysts said in a report Thursday.

Migrant worker wages

The Nomura analysts pointed out another looming repayment deadline for Chinese real estate developers is deferred wages for construction workers, which are due before the Lunar New Year, which kicks off on Jan. 31.

“Unlike other sectors, the construction sector pays a majority of migrant workers’ annual compensation right before the end of each lunar year,” the analysts said. “Based on our informal survey, deferred wages account around two-thirds of their annual pay.”

The analysts estimate about 1.1 trillion yuan in deferred wages is owed to construction workers by private developers. The report noted that paying these construction workers in time is especially critical for developers this time around since the central government has emphasized that stability — including social stability — is a priority next year.

“Failing to pay deferred wages could be severely punished by both the central government and related local governments,” the analysts said, adding that “there is tremendous reputational risk for those developers and constructors that could not pay deferred wages in a timely manner, especially if social protests are triggered.”

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Evergrande set for restructuring, with no word on first formal default

A housing complex by Chinese property developer Evergrande in Beijing.

Noel Celis | AFP | Getty Images

Evergrande is set to forge ahead into a debt restructuring that would include all of its offshore public bonds and private debt, according to analysts.

The troubled real estate developer, swamped by $300 billion of liabilities, also said Tuesday that it’s setting up a risk management committee, which will play a role in mitigating and eliminating future risks for the firm. The world’s most indebted property developer has been struggling to raise funds to pay suppliers and investors.

Those developments lifted its shares from a record low, as it bounced back over on Tuesday although they later lost steam. Stocks of other Hong Kong-listed property firms also jumped.

Sentiment has also been buoyed by China’s move toward an emphasis on easing. On Monday, the country’s central bank said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio, or the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, for the second time this year. That frees up 1.2 trillion yuan ($282 billion) to boost slowing growth amid the pandemic.

“It seems quite likely now that a restructuring of Evergrande’s offshore public bonds and private debt obligations will be taking place soon,” Martin Hennecke, head of Asia investment advisory and communications at St. James’s Place, told CNBC on Tuesday.

Those private debt obligations would likely include bonds of joint venture Jumbo Fortune and unit Scenery Journey, according to Luther Chai of CreditSights, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings.

There was still no word from the developer on whether it has paid $82.5 million worth of interest — the 30-day grace period ended Monday. Analysts said, however, it was unlikely the interest was paid, given the firm’s restructuring plans. Evergrande said Friday it “plans to actively engage with offshore creditors to formulate a viable restructuring plan.”

It would be the first time that the firm formally defaults if so, as it has managed to make the last few interest payments at the eleventh hour – within the grace period deadline.

China shifting to policy easing

Analysts said China’s shift toward monetary policy easing would be noteworthy in turning things around for the troubled real estate market.

“What is very noteworthy … in my view, is that Chinese policymakers’ rhetoric has shifted significantly most recently, with an emphasis on easing, which includes the reserve requirement ratio cut, a wider easing of curbs on the real estate sector, a pledge for stabilization in 2022 and focus on economic support through various monetary policy tools,” said Hennecke.

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China’s easing is especially significant given it was the government’s tough stance on reducing debt and other tightening in the real estate sector that triggered the current crisis in the first place, said Hennecke.

“Perhaps more important than the RRR announcement, the PBOC decision was closely followed by a statement from the communist party central committee vowing to stabilize the economy in 2022, signalling an easing of some property curbs,” added Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank.

China’s real estate sector has been hit by the government’s moves to tame debt. Evergrande’s problems came to a head after the authorities rolled out the “three red lines” policy last year. That policy places a limit on debt in relation to a firm’s cash flows, assets and capital levels. That started to rein in developers after years of growth fueled by excessive debt.

Worries over Evergrande’s huge debt have roiled global markets amid concerns about a potential spillover into the rest of China’s real estate industry or even the broader economy. As its debt crisis unraveled, other Chinese real estate developers also started showing signs of strain – some missed interest payments, while others defaulted on their debt altogether.

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Stock Market Today: Dow Rose as Moderna Slumped Again

The


Dow Jones Industrial Average

had one of its best days this year on Monday, as value and defensive stocks led a rebound from last week’s market declines.

The news Monday was relatively positive, with signs that the Omicron variant of Covid-19 might be less severe than earlier strains and reports that China is considering easing monetary policy. On the Federal Reserve policy front, the latest reporting suggested that the central bank could announce plans at its next meeting to more quickly pull back from its bond-buying program.

The Dow surged 647 points, or 1.9%, for its best one-day point gain since November 2020 and the largest percentage increase since last March. The


S&P 500

closed up 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%, while the small-cap


Russell 2000

gained 2.1%, for its fourth-straight daily move of 2% or more.

Post-pandemic reopening stocks were among the biggest gainers on Monday. The


U.S. Global Jets

exchange-traded fund (ticker: JETS) added 5.3%, as


American Airlines Group

(AAL) added 7.9% and


United Airlines Holdings

(UAL) jumped 8.3%. Cruise lines


Carnival

(CCL) and


Royal Caribbean Cruises

(RCL) surged 8.0% and 8.3%, respectively.


Marriott International

(MAR) added 4.5%,


Live Nation Entertainment

(LYV) rose 6.1%, and


Cinemark Holdings

(CNK) gained 7.7%.

S&P 500 value stocks as a group gained 1.4% on Monday, versus a 0.9% rise for growth stocks in the index.

Investor attention remains focused on the newly discovered Omicron variant of coronavirus, news of which recently brought about the Dow’s worst day of the year and saw volatility rock markets last week. The latest headline driving sentiment comes from South Africa, where data—though from a small sample size—suggest that symptoms caused by Omicron were milder than with other variants.

Investors aren’t out of the woods yet, however. The broad market will remain sensitive to daily headlines about Omicron—both good and bad.

“It still feels like we’re in the guesswork stage of working out what the impact of Omicron will be,” said Russ Mould, an analyst at broker AJ Bell. “It would be naive to rule out further volatility as markets attempt to work out exactly what’s going on.”

On Monday, the news was positive and investors bought the market. All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green.

Fed policy has been pushing investor sentiment the other way. Chair Jerome Powell indicated last week that the central bank would consider speeding up its slowing, or tapering, of monthly asset purchases, which add liquidity to markets, amid higher inflation.

“We’re really at a fascinating crossroads in markets at the moment,” said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank. “The market sentiment on the virus and the policy makers at the Fed are moving in opposite directions.”

Those trends mean different things for different kinds of stocks and indexes.

If Omicron is less severe than feared, then the economy might hold up better than expected. That would be good for economically-sensitive cyclical stocks, like many of those in the Dow. Higher bond yields and interest rates, however, can put downward pressure on stock valuations, particularly those with nosebleed price-to-earnings ratios, many of which are found in the Nasdaq.

“Like Friday, how the Nasdaq trades will likely determine the day, as markets want to see the tech sector stabilize after intense weakness late last week,” wrote the Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. “If the Nasdaq can stabilize, the broad market can bounce.”

The tech-heavy index bounced from a loss of about 1% shortly after Monday’s opening bell.

In the commodity space, oil prices rose Monday after Saudi Arabia raised its January prices for Asian and U.S. customers over the weekend by $0.60, in a sign of firmer demand expectations.

Futures contracts for the international oil benchmark Brent rose 4.6%, to above $73 a barrel, with U.S. futures for West Texas Intermediate crude up 4.9% to about $69.50 a barrel.

“Given that OPEC+ is proceeding with its planned 400,000 barrels per day increase this month, it appears that Saudi Arabia is taking a punt that Omicron is a virus in a teacup,” said Jeffrey Halley, an analyst at broker Oanda. “Saudi Arabia’s confidence, along with the South African Omicron article over the weekend, is a boost to markets looking for good news in any corner they can find it.”

Cryptocurrency markets remained depressed after digital assets took a tumble over the weekend.


Bitcoin

and


Ether,

the two leading cryptos, remained off their lows following the stark fall Saturday, but were slipping after steadying Sunday. Bitcoin was trading hands around $49,000—down from more than $57,000 as recently as Friday—with Ether holding above $4,000.

Here are several stocks on the move Monday:


Nvidia

(ticker: NVDA) was among the most actively traded stocks in the U.S. Monday, closing down about 2.1%. Shares of fellow semiconductor firm Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) lost 3.4%.


Lucid Group

(LCID) stock dropped 5.1% after the electric-vehicle startup revealed that it had received a subpoena from the Securities and Exchange Commission, without offering many details.


Kohl’s

(KSS) gained 5.4% after an activist investor said it should explore selling itself.


Moderna

(MRNA) fell 13.5% after its president said that the risk that vaccines don’t work as well against Omicron is high. Pfizer (PFE) stock slid more than 5%.

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) stock closed up 10.4% after a management shakeup at the e-commerce giant.


Deutsche Bank

(DB) rose 3.6% after JPMorgan upgraded the bank to Overweight from Neutral, adding that the group shows positive revenue developments in key divisions.

Pharma giant


Roche

(ROG.Switzerland) rose 1.5% in Zurich after announcing that it would release rapid antigen tests for Covid-19 and flu viruses next month.

Food delivery group


Just Eat Takeaway.com

(JET.U.K.) fell 4.9% in London following a price target cut and downgrade to Market Perform from Outperform by Bernstein, which sees few positive catalysts in the pipeline for the company.

Write to Jack Denton at jack.denton@dowjones.com

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Hong Kong’s Hang Seng to drop Evergrande from China Enterprise index

A housing complex by Chinese property developer Evergrande in Beijing. The indebted Evergrande has remitted the funds for a key interest payment that was due Sept. 23 — ahead of a 30-day grace period, Chinese state media Securities Times reported.

Noel Celis | AFP | Getty Images

Evergrande’s stock dipped 1.44% on Monday morning. Year to date, the stock has plunged more than 80%.

In place of Evergrande, Hang Seng is adding biopharmaceuticals firm Innovent Biologics to the China Enterprises index.

Changes to the Hang Seng

As for changes on the Hang Seng index, China Resources Beer and ENN Energy Holdings will be added to the index in addition to the inclusion of JD and Netease. The latest update increases the number of stocks under the main index to 64, from the current 60 stocks.

Shares of JD jumped nearly 2% on Monday morning, while Netease was up nearly 3%.

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S&P Global Ratings said in a Monday note that JD’s business model is “well positioned” for China’s strained conditions.

“The online retailer is outperforming its peers in China during a resurgence of COVID cases in the country and faltering consumer sentiment amid a housing downturn,” S&P said.

“JD.com has also been investing heavily for years now in its logistics and supply chain infrastructure. This has given the entity better control over supply chains while its competitors were hit with outages,” the report said.

S&P Global Ratings expects JD’s revenue to jump more than 18% per year in the next 18 to 24 months.

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China property market may see more pain, though Evergrande crisis may ease

People look at models of houses at the 2021 Dalian autumn real estate fair at Dalian World Expo Center on October 15, 2021 in Dalian, Liaoning Province of China.

Liu Debin | Visual China Group | Getty Images

BEIJING — Worries about Chinese real estate developers’ high debt levels have rattled investors despite signs that property giant China Evergrande may be making progress on resolving its debt problems.

It’s an indication of further pain to come in China’s property market, analysts told CNBC.

Since late summer, global investors have watched for Evergrande’s ability to stave off official default — and are concerned about whether the fallout might spread to the rest of China’s real estate industry.

Other major developers have also reported liquidity problems in the last several days.

Chinese property stocks trading in Hong Kong mostly fell last week. Evergrande was among the least affected and lost about 1.3% for the week.

On the debt front, the Markit iBoxx index for China real estate high yield bonds fell 11.5% last week, according to IHS Markit.

“The market is a bit more worried,” Gary Ng, Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, said in a phone interview on Thursday. He pointed to how tighter government regulations on debt have restricted liquidity, which has spread to more developers.

“We still think the majority of this stress” will be on companies in the private sector and “on smaller developers and on the high-yield space,” Ng said. “State-owned developers, or the general investment grade [space], those seem quite stable.”

Only five of the twenty largest Chinese real estate developers by assets as of the first half of this year were central government-owned enterprises, according to Natixis.

The three developers that have caught investor attention recently do not fall in that state-owned category.

Evergrande is the industry’s biggest issuer of U.S. dollar-denominated high yield bonds, according to Natixis.

Kaisa Group Holdings, which ranks second among those high yield bond issuers, suspended trading in its Hong Kong-listed shares Friday before the stock market opened. Shares of the developer were already down nearly 13% for the week after news it missed payment on a wealth management product.

Another large Chinese developer, Shimao Group Holdings, traded about 14% lower Friday in Hong Kong. The company disclosed in a filing Thursday that it will only allow institutional investors to buy seven of its Shanghai-traded bonds, effective Friday. Existing retail investors must sell or hold the bonds until maturity, the filing said.

These developments come as investors are already on edge over the risk of default for other Chinese real estate companies.

Moody’s made 32 negative rating actions in the Chinese property sector in roughly the four weeks that ended Oct. 26.

The ratings agency noted in a report in late October that the rated developers will need to pay or refinance tens of billions of dollars’ worth of debt in the coming 12 months: $33.1 billion of onshore bonds listed in mainland China, and $43.8 billion of offshore U.S.-dollar denominated bonds. The figure includes bonds maturing and those subject to put options, or the right for investors to sell.

Central government officials have sought to reassure markets and said in the last few weeks that Evergrande is an isolated case and the real estate industry overall is fine.

Evergrande avoided official default at the 11th hour in late October, and began to announce progress on its construction projects. The property developer said Wednesday it had completed project deliveries involving 57,462 apartment owners from July to October.

However, the pace of deliveries has generally slowed down month-on-month. Deliveries covered 39 projects and 7,568 apartment owners in October, down from 48 projects and 7,808 owners in September, the company said.

Evergrande faced another deadline last Saturday to repay bond investors. The company was the second-largest Chinese developer by sales last year, but fell to fourth this year as of the third quarter, according to industry data site China Index Academy.

Caught in a negative loop

“Our view is that currently, the property market is caught in a negative credit loop,” Franco Leung, Hong Kong-based associate managing director at Moody’s Investor Service, told CNBC in a phone interview last week.

Regulators’ call for developers to reduce their debt have made investors and onshore lenders less willing to provide financing, Leung said. Developers — particularly those that are financially weaker — then had to reduce their spending on land or construction costs, resulting in a drop in sales, he added.

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As business slows for some developers, investors will choose to put their money elsewhere.

A government policy change or longer-term developer reductions to spending on land and construction can break this “negative loop,” Leung said, adding that it will take time.

Moody’s has no view on whether such a break would even happen. The firm’s outlook on China property is negative for at least three to six months, he said.

S&P Global Ratings forecasts a 10% decline in China’s residential sales next year, and a further 5% to 10% decline in 2023.

“Defaults will rise as down cycle persists under the shadow of sluggish sales, narrower funding channels, and more cautious lenders,” S&P analysts said in an Oct. 27 report.

Real estate bright spots

Not all Chinese real estate developers are in such dire straits.

For the first three quarters of the year, Moody’s noted the top three developers by year-on-year contracted sales growth saw significant gains in sales.

  1. Greentown China Holdings, +76%
  2. Powerlong Real Estate Holdings, +42.8%
  3. Hopson Development Holdings, +35.3%

Powerlong and Hopson had not violated any of the government’s “three red lines” as of the first half of this year, while Greentown had violated one, according to Natixis.

“In the short run, [the regulation means] there will be a liquidity squeeze,” Ng from Natixis said. “In the long run, it will improve the general financial health of the whole property sector because there will be consolidation if we see some of the weaker players … are forced to sell their assets.

As for the implications for the real estate industry and China’s economy, he said the risk is limited because homebuyers won’t likely want to give up properties or mortgages they’ve already paid for. Since most apartments in China are sold ahead of completion, a major challenge for cash-strapped developers is to finish construction and deliver properties to buyers.

For bondholders, “you feel like your bonds are falling 80%, 90%. But for the homebuyers, the real estate sector itself, we haven’t seen a big change … in terms of this financial risk,” Ng said.

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Property developer Kaisa halts Hong Kong trading

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. logo displayed on a smartphone screen.

SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images

Hong Kong listed shares of Chinese real estate developer Kaisa Group Holdings were halted on Friday, following news that it had missed a payment on a wealth management product earlier this week.

It comes as investors continue to watch for developments in China’s property sector following the fallout from heavily indebted Evergrande.

Kaisa said in an exchange filing on Friday that it will be suspending trading. Its other units — Kaisa Capital, Kaisa Health, Kaisa Prosper — also announced they will halt trading.

On Thursday, Kaisa said its finance unit missed a payment on a wealth management product, amid increased worries about its strained liquidity.

Kaisa shares fell nearly 13% this week before the trading suspension. The stock is down about 70% so far this year.

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Investors have been closely monitoring interest payments on the Evergrande’s bonds — the company initially missed making two payments, but managed to meet them within the 30-day grace period. All eyes are now on other interest payments due in November and December.

A few other Chinese real estate firms had also been under the spotlight for going into default, or missing payments on their debt.

Kaisa’s debt

Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings downgraded Kaisa last week. Both agencies cited the firm’s diminishing cash flow.

Among Chinese developers, Kaisa is the second-largest issuer of U.S. dollar-denominated offshore high-yield bonds, according to Natixis. Evergrande, the world’s most indebted real estate developer, ranks first.

As of the first half of this year, Kaisa had crossed two of China’s three “red lines” for real estate developers that the government outlined, according to Natixis.

According to Fitch, Kaisa has a large amount of debt due between now and end-2022, including $400 million due in December, and around $3 billion due in 2022.

Regulators in Shenzhen will hold a meeting on Friday to discuss liquidity issues at Kaisa and another Chinese real estate firm Fantasia, local media Cailianshe reported. Fantasia failed to repay a $206 million bond that matured early last month.

Kaisa and Fantasia didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

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