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Credit Suisse seeks billions from investors in make-or-break overhaul

ZURICH, Oct 27 (Reuters) – Credit Suisse plans to raise 4 billion Swiss francs ($4 billion) from investors, cut thousands of jobs and shift its focus from investment banking towards its rich clients, as the bank attempts to put years of scandals behind it.

The Swiss lender outlined on Thursday what its chairman Axel Lehmann dubbed a “blueprint for success”, after it racked up an unexpected 4 billion Swiss franc loss in the third quarter of the year.

The announcement followed torrid weeks for the bank and fell flat with investors. Its stock, which has plumbed record lows in recent weeks, dropped about 14 percent in early trading, valuing the embattled bank around 11 billion francs.

Credit Suisse said clients pulled funds in recent weeks at a pace that saw the lender breach some regulatory requirements for liquidity, underscoring the impact on its business of wild market swings and a social media storm.

The group added that it was stable throughout.

Analysts gave the announcement a lukewarm welcome. Vontobel’s Andreas Venditti said the bank was embarking on a “lengthy process to restore credibility”.

“Resolute execution and no further missteps will be key and it will take time until results will begin to show,” he said.

The turnaround plan has many elements, from cutting jobs to refocusing on banking for the wealthy.

It will cut 2,700 jobs or 5% of its workforce by the end of this year, and ultimately reduce its workforce by roughly 9,000 to about 43,000 by the end of 2025.

The Swiss bank said it also aims to separate out its investment bank to create CS First Boston, focused on advisory work such as mergers and acquisitions and arranging deals on capital markets.

The bank envisions selling a stake but keeping roughly 50% in the new business, said one person familiar with the issue. It is also exploring the possibility of an initial public offering, another source familiar with the matter said.

Saudi National Bank, majority-owned by the government of Saudi Arabia, said it will invest up to 1.5 billion francs in Credit Suisse to take a stake of up to 9.9% and may invest in the investment bank.

The move bolsters Saudi influence in one of Switzerland’s best-known banks. Olayan Group, one of the biggest Saudi family-owned conglomerates, with a multibillion dollar investment portfolio, also owns a 5% stake in the bank.

The Qatar Investment Authority – which owns about 5% of the Swiss bank – declined to comment on whether it plans to buy any shares.

Credit Suisse said it will create a capital release unit to wind down non-strategic, higher-risk businesses, while announcing plans to sell a large part of its securitised products business to an investor group led by Apollo.

The bank will also wind down some trading businesses in emerging markets and equities.

Its heavy loss in the third quarter was due in large part to write-offs linked to its investment banking overhaul, including adjustments for lost tax credits.

JPMorgan analysts said that “question marks remain” over the restructuring of investment banking, adding that the share sale would also weigh on the stock.

The latest revamp, aiming to overcome the bank’s worst crisis in its history, is the third attempt in recent years by successive CEOs to turn the group around.

Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

Once a symbol for Swiss reliability, the bank’s reputation has been tarnished by a series of scandals, including an unprecedented prosecution at home involving laundering money for a criminal gang.

The bank had been rushing to raise money and free up capital by selling assets, keen to limit how much cash it would have to raise from investors to fund its overhaul, handle its legacy litigation costs and retain a cushion for rough markets ahead.

Credit Suisse needs to revamp after a series of costly and morale-sapping blunders that triggered a wholesale change of management.

In refocusing away from risky investment banking to banking for the globe’s rich, Credit Suisse is following in the footsteps of its bigger Swiss rival, UBS.

The UBS turnaround succeeded in large part because of a flood of freshly printed money from the world’s central banks to reignite the economy during the financial crisis.

Credit Suisse, on the other hand, is attempting to refocus its business in a world facing war, an energy crisis, rocketing inflation and an economic slide.

Last year, the bank took a $5.5 billion loss from the unravelling of U.S. investment firm Archegos and had to freeze $10 billion worth of supply chain finance funds linked to insolvent British financier Greensill, highlighting risk-management failings.

Its deepening problems even put it on the radar of day traders earlier this month, when a frenzy of wild speculation about its health sent its stock price into a tailspin to a record low.

($1 = 0.9858 Swiss francs)

Additional reporting by Michael Shields in Zurich and Yousef Saba in Dubai; Writing by John O’Donnell; Editing by Edmund Klamann

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Dollar soars to two-decade high as Putin shakes FX market ahead of Fed

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  • Dollar index at two-decade high
  • Euro slides back toward two-decade lows
  • Putin announces partial troop mobilization for Ukraine
  • Markets gauging Fed hawkishness in Powell briefing

LONDON/NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) – The dollar surged to a new two-decade high on Wednesday just ahead of another expected aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hike, as investors fled for safety after a decision by Russian President Vladimir Putin to mobilize more troops for the conflict in Ukraine.

Putin on Wednesday called up 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine and said Moscow would respond with the might of all its vast arsenal if the West pursued what he called its “nuclear blackmail” over the conflict there. read more

The news propelled the dollar index, which measures the greenback’s value against six major currencies, to 110.87 <=USD>, its strongest level since 2002.

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The dollar index is up almost 16% this year and set for its biggest annual surge since 1981. It was last trading at 110.71, up about 0.5% on the day.

“Most of the dollar moves today are Putin-related,” said Steven Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered in New York..

“When I look at my table, the five worst performing currencies are the Swedish crown, Polish zloty, Czech koruna, Hungarian forint and the euro. That’s more a Putin worry because of hints that Russia might escalate the conflict in Ukraine and on what limits he puts on the weapons they use.”

Dollar index at two-decade high ahead of Fed

European currencies bore the brunt of selling in foreign exchange markets as Putin’s comments exacerbated concern about the economic outlook for a region already hit hard by Russia’s squeeze on gas supplies to Europe.

The euro fell to a two-week low of $0.9885 , within sight of two-decade lows touched earlier this month. It was last down 0.7% at $0.9901.

Sterling fell to a fresh 37-year low of $1.1304 and was last down 0.5% at $1.1335

Later on Wednesday, the Fed is expected to lift interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for a third straight time and signal how much further and how fast borrowing costs may need to rise to tame inflation. read more

The policy decision, due at 1800 GMT, will mark the latest move in a synchronized policy shift by global central banks that is testing the resilience of the world economy and the ability of countries to manage exchange rate shocks as the value of the dollar soars.

“What the market is looking for is whether (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell says the Fed does not know how far they have to go and they’ll go as far as they need to go,” said Standard Chartered’s Englander.

“If someone asks him whether he sees rates going to 5% and he says he doesn’t see it, but doesn’t rule it out if that’s needed to get inflation down, then that would be really hawkish and means they’re opening up rates to an even higher range than what the market anticipates.”

The Australian and New Zealand dollars meanwhile plumbed multi-year lows. The Aussie dollar hit a trough of US$0.6655, its lowest since June 2020, while the New Zealand currency fell to US$0.5873, its lowest since April 2020.

Against the battered yen, the dollar was up 0.2% at 143.97, holding off recent 24-year peaks

“It was interesting to me that dollar/yen dipped on the news of the announcement, potentially indicating a return of the yen’s safe-haven credentials which have been absent for much of the year,” said Colin Asher, a senior economist at Mizuho Corporate Bank.

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Currency bid prices at 10:42AM (1442 GMT)

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Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York; Additional reporting by Lucy Raitano; Editing by Edwina Gibbs, Catherine Evans and Mark Heinrich

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Dollar higher on risk aversion; euro revisits parity

  • Euro under pressure as Russia to halt gas supplies
  • Yuan dips to nearly 2-year low as PBOC eases policy again

NEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar rose across the board on Monday, briefly driving the euro back below parity, as investors shied away from riskier assets amid growing fears that interest-rate hikes in the United States and Europe, aimed at curbing inflation, would weaken the global economy.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was 0.5% higher at 108.71 , not far from the two-decade high of 109.29 touched in mid-July.

The greenback has found support in recent sessions as several Federal Reserve officials reiterated an aggressive monetary tightening stance ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium this week.

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The latest of these officials, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, on Friday said the “urge” among central bankers was toward faster, front-loaded rate increases. read more

“It’s risk being taken off the table after the market got a reality check from last week’s Fed speakers that an imminent dovish pivot is off the cards,” said Michael Brown, head of market intelligence at Caxton in London.

“With investors now clearly expecting a relatively hawkish message from Fed Chair (Jerome) Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday, it’s a perfect cocktail of risk-aversion and a hawkish Fed for the greenback to bound higher, especially when growth worries, especially in Europe, continue to mount,” Brown said.

The euro fell following Russia’s announcement late on Friday of a three-day halt to European gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline at the end of this month. Investors worry that the halt could exacerbate an energy crisis that has weighed on the common currency in recent months. read more

The European Central Bank must keep raising rates even if a recession in Germany is increasingly likely, as inflation will stay uncomfortably high through 2023, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel told a German newspaper.

The weakness briefly drove the euro below $1 for the first time since July 14. The euro was last down 0.7% at $0.99715 .

“0.9950 seems to be the pivotal level, as that’s the prior low, if that gives way then we could see significant further losses, especially with the ECB’s window to tighten policy rapidly slamming shut,” Brown said.

China’s yuan dropped to its lowest in nearly two years after the country’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rate and lowered the mortgage reference by a bigger margin on Monday, adding to last week’s easing measures, as Beijing boosts efforts to revive an economy hobbled by a property crisis and a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. read more

Against the offshore yuan , the dollar was 0.55% higher at 6.8621.

Sterling fell to its lowest since mid-July against the dollar on Monday as surging energy costs and a summer of strikes highlighted the UK cost of living crisis and intensified fears for further economic slowdown. read more

The pound was last down 0.43% at $1.1781 , within a whisker of taking out the near 2-1/2 year low of 1.1761 touched in mid-July.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was about 0.92% lower at $21,316, weighed down by broad risk aversion in markets.

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Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; editing by Jonathan Oatis

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Economic fears hit global equities, commods; Twitter lifts Wall St

WASHINGTON/LONDON, April 25 (Reuters) – European stocks slid to a one-month low and commodity prices dropped on Monday on renewed concerns about rising interest rates and China’s sputtering economy, while Wall Street shares rose, reversing losses after Twitter agreed to be bought by billionaire Elon Musk.

Fears over China’s COVID-19 outbreaks spooked investors already worried that higher U.S. interest rates could dent economic growth. U.S. shares were lower throughout most of the session, extending last week’s sharp declines. The CBOE Volatility index (.VIX) known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, hit the lowest level since mid-March.

Twitter Inc (TWTR.N), shares rose on news that Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, clinked a deal to pay $44 billion cash for the social media platform populated by millions of users and global leaders. read more

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After news of the deal, Wall Street reversed course on a late rally by growth stocks, and the Nasdaq ended sharply higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.7% to end at 34,049.46 points, while the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.57% to 4,296.12.

The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) climbed 1.29% to 13,004.85.

“You can tell growth wanted to rally all day but the market was holding it down. The Twitter news came and that was just a green light to start buying some of the growth names. They have been oversold for a while,” said Dennis Dick, a trader at Bright Trading LLC.

Earlier, Europe’s STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) dropped 1.8% to close at its lowest since mid-March. Commodity stocks slumped 6%, as global worries overshadowed relief from French presidential results on Sunday which saw Emmanuel Macron edge past far-right challenger Marine Le Pen.

MSCI’s benchmark for global equity markets (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.41% to 668.85. Emerging markets stocks (.MSCIEF) fell 2.61%. Overnight, Asian markets had their worst daily decline in over a month on fears Beijing would go back into a COVID-19 lockdown.

“Stocks’ rebound from the first quarter correction has hit a wall of rising long-term interest rates,” Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shale said in a note.

“With the Fed talking about a faster and larger balance sheet reduction than anticipated, real yields are approaching zero from their deeply negative territory. With the nominal 10-year U.S. Treasury cracking 2.9%, the equity risk premium

has plummeted.”

The euro slid 0.9%, near the session’s trough and its weakest level since the initial COVED panic of March 2020.

“The reality is there is more to the French election story than Macron’s win yesterday,” said Rabobank FX strategist Jane Foley.

France will hold parliamentary elections in June, and Macron also seems likely to maintain pressure for a Europe-wide ban on Russian oil and gas imports, which would cause near-term economic pain.

“We had German officials saying last week that if there was an immediate embargo of Russian energy then it would cause a recession in Germany. … that would drag the rest of Europe down and have knock-on effects for the rest of the world,” Foley said.

French presidential election results Results for the French presidential elections, second-round vote

State television in China had reported that residents were ordered not to leave Beijing’s Chatoyant district after a few dozen COVID cases were detected over the weekend. read more

China’s yuan skidded to a one-year low while China stocks saw their biggest slump since the pandemic-led panic-selling of February 2020. .SSE

The dollar index rose 0.65% and climbed to a two-year high. It touched a peak of $1.0695 against the euro .

Investors wonder how fast and far the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates this year and whether that and other global strains will tip the world economy into recession.

This week will be packed with corporate earnings. Almost 180 S&P 500 index firms are to report. Among big U.S. tech companies, Microsoft and Google report on Tuesday, Facebook on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday.

In Europe, 134 of the Stoxx 600 will put out results, including banks HSBC, UBS and Santander on Tuesday, Credit Suisse on Wednesday, Barclays on Thursday and NatWest and Spain’s BBVA on Friday.

“I wonder whether just meeting expectations will be enough, it just feels like maybe we’ll need a bit more,” said Rob Carnell, ING’s chief economist in Asia, referring to jitters about big tech following a dire report from Netflix last week.

World stocks suffering one of worst ever starts to a year

FEAR FACTOR

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (.HSI) fell 3.7% and the Shanghai composite index (.SSEC) slid over 5% .

China’s central bank had fixed the mid-point of the yuan’s trading band at its lowest level in eight months, seen as an official nod for the currency’s slide, and the yuan was sold further, to a one-year low of 6.5092 per dollar .

The higher dollar pushed spot gold 1.7% lower by 4:53 p.m. EST (2053 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled nearly 2% lower at $1,896. Palladium prices were down nearly 10% on worries over Chinese demand.

In oil, Brent crude closed 4% lower at $102.32 a barrel and U.S. crude settled down 3.5% at $98.54, its first close below $100 since April 11.

Euro zone bond yields fell.

Money markets are pricing in a 1 percentage point increase in U.S. interest rates at the Fed’s next two meetings and at least 2.5 points for the year, which would be one of the biggest annual increases ever.

This week will also see the release of U.S. growth data, European inflation figures and a Bank of Japan policy meeting, which will be watched for any hints of a response to a sharp fall in the yen, which has lost 10% in about two months.

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Additional reporting by Bansari Mayu Kamdar, Noel Randewich, Tom Westbrook; Editing by Bernadette Baum, Catherine Evans, Mark Heinrich, Marguerita Choy and David Gregorio

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Ackman gives up on Netflix, taking $400 mln loss as shares tumble

April 20 (Reuters) – Billionaire investor William Ackman liquidated a $1.1 billion bet on Netflix (NFLX.O) on Wednesday, locking in a loss of more than $400 million as the streaming service’s stock plunged following news that it lost subscribers for the first time in a decade.

Ackman’s hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management made an abrupt U-turn, selling the 3.1 million shares it had bought just three months ago as Netflix’ shares tumbled 35% to $226.19.

In January, the investor funneled over $1 billion into the streaming service just days after a disappointing forecast for subscriptions pushed the share price lower. Now a second bout of negative news about subscribers – the company said it had lost 200,000 – prompted the fund manager to turn his back on a company he had showered with praise only weeks before.

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In a brief statement announcing the move, Ackman said proposed business model changes, including incorporating advertising and going after non-paying customers, made sense but would make the company too unpredictable in the short term.

“While Netflix’s business is fundamentally simple to understand, in light of recent events, we have lost confidence in our ability to predict the company’s future prospects with a sufficient degree of certainty,” he wrote.

Pershing Square, which now invests $21.5 billion, buys shares in only about a dozen companies at a time and needs a “high degree of predictability” in its portfolio companies, Ackman said.

Rather than wait around for things to improve at Netflix, Ackman locked in losses that are calculated to be more than $400 million, people familiar with the portfolio said. After the sale, Pershing Square’s portfolios are off roughly two percent for the year, Ackman said.

Netflix said it had lost 200,000 subscribers in its first quarter, falling well short of its modest predictions that it would add 2.5 million subscribers. Its decision in early March to suspend service in Russia after it invaded Ukraine resulted in the loss of 700,000 members. read more

Profitable hedges helped Pershing Square survive the early days of the pandemic in 2020 and then again in recent months as interest rates began to rise. The last three years have been among the best in the hedge fund’s lifetime, including a 70.2% gain in 2020.

But Ackman also acknowledged in his statement on Wednesday that he had learned from leaner times when his fund backed Valeant Pharmaceuticals, a disastrous bet that cost the hedge fund billions in losses.

“One of our learnings from past mistakes is to act promptly when we discover new information about an investment that is inconsistent with our original thesis. That is why we did so here,” he wrote.

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Reporting by Svea Herbst-Bayliss with additional reporting by Tiyashi Datta in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila, Bernard Orr

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U.S. stops Russian bond payments in bid to raise pressure on Moscow

FILE PHOTO: A view shows a Russian rouble coin and a U.S. dollar banknote in this picture illustration taken October 26, 2018. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo

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NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, April 5 (Reuters) – The United States stopped the Russian government on Monday from paying holders of its sovereign debt more than $600 million from reserves held at U.S. banks, in a move meant to ratchet up pressure on Moscow and eat into its holdings of dollars.

Under sanctions put in place after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, foreign currency reserves held by the Russian central bank at U.S. financial institutions were frozen.

But the Treasury Department had been allowing the Russian government to use those funds to make coupon payments on dollar-denominated sovereign debt on a case-by-case basis.

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On Monday, as the largest of the payments came due, including a $552.4 million principal payment on a maturing bond, the U.S. government decided to cut off Moscow’s access to the frozen funds, according to a U.S. Treasury spokesperson.

An $84 million coupon payment was also due on Monday on a 2042 sovereign dollar bond .

The move was meant to force Moscow to make the difficult decision of whether it would use dollars that it has access to for payments on its debt or for other purposes, including supporting its war effort, the spokesperson said.

Russia faces a historic default if it chooses to not do so.

“Russia must choose between draining remaining valuable dollar reserves or new revenue coming in, or default,” the spokesperson said.

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), which had been processing payments as a correspondent bank so far, was stopped by the Treasury, a source familiar with the matter said.

The correspondent bank processes the coupon payments from Russia, sending them to the payment agent to distribute to overseas bondholders.

The country has a 30-day grace period to make the payment, the source said.

DEFAULT WORRIES

Russia does have the wherewithal to pay from reserves, since sanctions have frozen roughly half of some $640 billion in Russia’s gold and foreign currency reserves.

But a drawdown would add pressure just as the United States and Europe are planning new sanctions this week to punish Moscow over civilian killings in Ukraine. read more

Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special military operation”. Ukraine and the West say the invasion was illegal and unjustified. Images of a mass grave and the bound bodies of people shot at close range drew an international outcry on Monday. read more

Russia, which has a total of 15 international bonds outstanding with a face value of around $40 billion, has managed to avoid defaulting on its international debt despite unprecedented Western sanctions. But the task is getting harder. read more

“What they’re basically tying to do is force their hand and put even more pressure on (to deplete) foreign-currency reserves back home,” said David Wolber, a sanctions lawyer at Gibson Dunn in Hong Kong.

“If they have to do that, obviously that takes away from Russia’s ability to use those dollars for other activities, in essence to fund the war.”

It may also put pressure on Russian demands to be paid roubles for gas by European customers, he added.

Russia was last allowed to make a $447 million coupon payment on a 2030 sovereign dollar bond, due last Thursday, which was at least the fifth such payment since the war began.

If Russia fails to make any of its upcoming bond payments within their pre-defined timeframes, or pays in roubles where dollars, euros or another currency is specified, it will constitute a default. read more

While Russia is not able to access international borrowing markets due to sanctions, a default would prohibit it from accessing those markets until creditors are fully repaid and any legal cases stemming from the default are settled. read more

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Reporting by Megan Davies and Alexandra Alper. Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook; editing by Himani Sarkar and Jason Neely

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Inversion of key U.S. yield curve slice is a recession alarm

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 10, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

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NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) – A closely monitored section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted on Tuesday for the first time since September 2019, a reflection of market concerns that the Federal Reserve could tip the economy into recession as it battles soaring inflation.

For a brief moment, the yield on the two-year Treasury note was higher than that of the benchmark 10-year note . That part of the curve is viewed by many as a reliable signal that a recession could come in the next year or two.

The 2-year, 10-year spread briefly fell as low as minus 0.03 of a basis point, before bouncing back above zero to 5 basis points, according to data by Refinitiv.

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While the brief inversion in August and early September 2019 was followed by a downturn in 2020, no one foresaw the closure of businesses and economic collapse due to the spread of COVID-19.

Investors are now concerned that the Federal Reserve will dent growth as it aggressively hikes rates to fight soaring inflation, with price pressures rising at the fastest pace in 40 years.

“The movements in the twos and the tens are a reflection that the market is growing nervous that the Fed may not be successful in fostering a soft landing,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.

Western sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine has created new volatility in commodity prices, adding to already high inflation.

Fed funds futures traders expect the Fed’s benchmark rate to rise to 2.60% by February, compared to 0.33% today. FEDWATCH

Some analysts say that the Treasury yield curve has been distorted by the Fed’s massive bond purchases, which are holding down long-dated yields relative to shorter-dated ones.

Short and intermediate-dated yields have jumped as traders price in more and more rate hikes.

Another part of the yield curve that is also monitored by the Fed as a recession indicator remains far from inversion.

That is the three-month , 10-year part of the curve, which is currently at 184 basis points.

Either way, the lag from an inversion of the two-, 10-year part of the curve to a recession is typically relatively long, meaning that an economic downturn is not necessarily a concern right now.

“The time delay between an inversion and a recession tends to be, call it anywhere between 12 and 24 months. Six months have been the shortest and 24 months has been the longest so it’s really not something that is actionable for the average folks,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York.

Meanwhile, analysts say that the U.S. central bank could use roll-offs from its massive $8.9 trillion bond holdings to help re-steepen the yield curve if it is concerned about the slope and its implications.

The Fed is expected to begin reducing its balance sheet in the coming months.

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Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak and Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by John McCrank; Editing by Alden Bentley and Nick Zieminski

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Shanghai lockdown hurts oil, bonds and yen take a beating

A man wearing a protective mask, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, walks past an electronic board displaying graphs (top) of Nikkei index outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

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LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) – Oil prices slid on Monday as a coronavirus lockdown in Shanghai fueled worries about weak demand, while the yen’s stomach-churning descent continued as the Bank of Japan stood in the way of higher yields.

World stocks were largely flat, holding their ground in the face of another brutal selloff in major bond markets.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields pushed decisively above the 2.5%-marker for the first time since 2019, two-year bond yields in the Netherlands and Belgium turned positive for the first time since 2014 and even Japanese yields defied central bank intervention to hit fresh six-year highs.

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The other eye-popping move came from the yen, which slid almost 1.5%.

China’s financial hub of 26 million people meanwhile told all firms to suspend manufacturing or have people work remotely in a two-stage lockdown over nine days. read more

The spread of restrictions in the world’s biggest oil importer saw Brent skid $4.35 to $116.33, while U.S. crude fell $4.5 or 4% to $109.38.

Although Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) shed 0.6% and Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.7%, and U.S. stock futures eased , , weaker oil prices cheered European shares which were broadly firmer (.STOXX).

MSCI’s world stock index was flat, (.MIAPJ0000PUS), resilient in the face of a radically more hawkish Federal Reserve and surging bond yields.

Risk sentiment was helped by hopes of progress in Russian-Ukranian peace talks to be held in Turkey this week after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine was prepared to discuss adopting a neutral status as part of a deal.{nL2N2VU0EH]

“Sentiment has been surprisingly resilient in stock markets, which are buying positive headlines from the war in Ukraine,” said Jan von Gerich, chief analyst at Nordea.

“The repricing that continues at the short end of the U.S. yield curve is taking place really fast and without any consequences for Wall Street at the moment.”

Citi last week forecast 275 basis points of Federal Reserve tightening this year including half-point hikes in May, June, July and September.

YIELD SURGE

Expectations that the Fed could push harder and faster to tame inflation running at four-decade highs continued to batter sovereign bond markets.

Two-year Treasury yields were up around 10 basis points in London trade, having hit their highest levels since early 2019 at 2.41% . Ten-year yields also rose to new highs above 2.5% .

And one measure of the U.S. bond yield curve — the gap between five and 30-year Treasury yields — inverted for the first time since 2006 in a sign that recession risks are increasingly being priced in .

Timothy Graf, State Street’s head of EMEA macro strategy, said selling bonds felt like “the path of least resistance right now.”

“The Fed’s given no sign it will slow down, if anything they have ratcheted up the hawkish guidance,” he added.

Euro zone bond markets continued their move into positive-yield territory, while money market pricing suggested investors were now anticipating 60 bps worth of rate hikes from the European Central Bank by year-end versus 50 bps last week.

Australia’s 3-year bond yield rose to 2.386% , its highest level since 2014.

Japan’s 10-year government bond rose to a fresh six-year high of 0.25% , reaching the upper limit of the Bank of Japan’s policy band even after the central bank stepped into the market in efforts to rein it in.

The BOJ reinforced its super-loose policy by offering to buy as many bonds as needed to keep 10-year yields under 0.25%.

That saw the dollar rise to its highest since August 2015 at 123.82 yen , giving it a gain of over 7% for the month. Likewise, the resource-rich Australian dollar has climbed more than 10% this month to reach 93.20 yen .

The euro has lost about 2.3% on the dollar in the same period, but at $1.0954 is some way above the recent two-year trough of $1.0804.

In commodity markets, gold softened to $1,931 an ounce , down about 1.3%.

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Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe, Editing by William Maclean

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Corporate power keeps U.S. wages 20% lower than they should be-White House

WASHINGTON, March 7 (Reuters) – With inflation at a four-decade high, a U.S. government report shows corporate America has used its clout in the labor market to keep wages 20% lower than they should be, the White House said on Monday.

The report, prepared by the Treasury Department with help from the Justice Department, Labor Department and Federal Trade Commission (FTC), found companies had the upper hand in setting wages because they generally knew more about the labor market than workers do.

Further, workers may not be able to move or to afford an extended job search in order to find better-paid work.

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“These conditions can enable firms to exert market power, and consequently offer lower wages and worse working conditions, even in labor markets that are not highly concentrated,” the report said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a White House forum highlighting the report that workers are often at a disadvantage due to required non-compete or non-disclosure agreements; collusion between employers to keep wages low; or a lack of transparency that keeps workers unaware of prevailing wage rates.

“Ultimately these conditions cumulatively yield an uneven market where employers have more leverage than workers,” she said. “This is what economists mean when we refer to monopsonistic power” among buyers of labor.

The White House event featured several workers who complained about unfair employment practices at prior jobs.

One of the speakers was a temporary worker at Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL.O), Shannon Wait, who said she was let go from her $15 per hour job for complaining on social media about a broken company-issued water bottle.

Google officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Wait eventually won a settlement with Google which allows workers to discuss working conditions, according to the Communications Workers of America.

The report discusses ways that firms can hold down wages, including conspiring with other companies to avoid hiring each other’s workers and requiring employees to sign non-compete agreements that prevent them from leaving for higher wages.

The report cited a paper that found one-in-five workers is currently covered by a non-compete agreement, meaning they cannot leave to work for a competitor.

“A careful review of credible academic studies places the decrease in wages at roughly 20% relative to the level in a fully competitive market. In some industries and occupations, like manufacturing, estimates of wage losses are even higher,” the report said.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to a two-year low of 3.8% in February but hourly earnings were flat, partly because the return of workers to lower-paying industries offset wage increases in some sectors as companies competed for scarce workers. read more

Antitrust enforcement efforts usually focus on prices companies charge for goods and services. Antitrust enforcers have brought labor antitrust cases in the past, and the Trump Administration’s Justice Department brought one against a no-poach agreement between rail equipment suppliers in 2018, but they remain rare.

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Reporting by Diane Bartz and David Lawder; Editing by David Gregorio

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Stocks dive, oil jumps above $100 as Russia invades Ukraine

A trader works at the Frankfurt stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, February 22, 2022. REUTERS/Timm Reichert

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  • Oil breaches $100 as Russia launches invasion of Ukraine
  • European stocks drop 2.75%, Rouble hits record low
  • MSCI Asia ex-Japan down more than 3%, lowest since Nov. 2020
  • Treasuries, Bunds, dollar rally
  • Gold highest since Jan. 2021

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) – Oil prices broke above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, stock markets slumped and the rouble hit a record low on Thursday after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine. read more

Markets displayed all the predictable reactions. Europe’s , main stock markets opened 2.5%-4% lower and benchmark government bonds, the dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese yen and gold all rallied in a move to safety.

Putin said he had authorised what he called a special military operation and the Ukraine government accused Moscow of launching a full-scale invasion. read more

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The United States and its allies will impose “severe sanctions” on Russia after the attacks, U.S. President Joe Biden said. Europe’s leaders said they would freeze assets and shut Russian banks out of its financial markets. read more

Russian and Ukraine markets went in freefall.

The rouble weakened nearly 7% to an unprecedented 86.98 per dollar and there were 10% plus falls on the Moscow stock exchange when it opened after an initial suspension. The Russian central bank then ordered a ban on short selling and over-the-counter markets until further notice.

The equities rout had started with a 2.6% dive for pan-Asian indexes (.MIAP00000PUS). Europe’s STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) then fell 2.75% – hitting its lowest since May 2021 and 10% below a January record high.

The German DAX (.GDAXI) fell 3.7%, bearing the brunt of the sell-off due to heavy reliance on Russian energy supplies and the amounts its companies sell to Russia. The surge in oil prices helped limit losses on the UK’s commodity-heavy FTSE 100 (.FTSE), although it still slumped 2.3% and futures markets pointed to similar falls for Wall Street later.

S&P 500 e-minis were down 2% and Nasdaq futures were 2.8% lower, which if it materialises, would confirm the tech-focused index it is in a so-called ‘bear’ market.

“In the past when you have had geopolitical flareups you tend to have a very volatile periods on markets then normalisation, but it’s difficult to assess when we will get that,” said LGIM portfolio manager Justin Onuekwusi.

The dollar index was up 0.5% , in the currency markets. Assets have seen a sharp increase in volatility over the deepening crisis, with the Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, up more than 55% over the past nine days. (.VIX)

Brent crude futures , jumped more than 3.5% to shoot past $100 a barrel for the first time since September 2014.

West Texas Intermediate leapt 4.6% to $96.22 per barrel, its highest since August 2014, while gold jumped more than 1.7% to hit its highest level since early January 2021.

That dive for safety also saw yields on Germany’s AAA-rated government bonds drop eight basis points to 1.139%, the lowest in three weeks. . the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield was down sharply too, going as low as 1.86% from its U.S. close of 1.977% before edging back up to 1.90%.

Investors have also been grappling with the prospect of imminent policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve aimed at combating surging inflation. The question now is whether the conflict will give central bankers a reason to delay those moves or whether the further rise in energy priced could spur them on.

While expectations of an aggressive 50-basis-point hike at the Fed’s March meeting have eased, Fed funds futures continue to point to at least six rate hikes this year. FEDWATCH

“Markets are now more adequately pricing in the risk of something horrific happening. That combined with the uncertainty is a horrible environment to be in. No one wants risk exposure when that’s floating around,” said Rob Carnell, head of Asia Pacific research at ING.

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Additional reporting by Sujata Rao in London and Andrew Galbraith in Shanghai, Editing by Angus MacSwan

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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