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Sports

Bulls’ struggles include managing on-court disconnect between LaVine, DeRozan: Sources

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With two 2022 All-Stars in Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan and former All-Star center Nikola Vucevic, the Chicago Bulls had hoped to be a serious contender in the Eastern Conference and build upon their No. 6 seed finish from last season. But as this season has gone on, with the Bulls now sitting at a disappointing 11-18, and while playing without their star point guard Lonzo Ball due to a lingering knee injury, serious questions have arisen within the locker room about whether their two star wings can click together at a high level on the court this season and beyond.

The Bulls have held multiple team meetings to try to work out their issues, and that has included one-on-one, face-to-face sitdowns between DeRozan and LaVine, according to team and league sources who were granted anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly on team dynamics. DeRozan and LaVine have always had a strong mutual respect for each other. Only 10 months ago, over All-Star Weekend in Cleveland, the stars proclaimed themselves as the NBA’s best duo. They maintain a good personal relationship. But their meetings have not led to in-game results so far, with a level of on-court, stylistic tension simply festering throughout the season and being magnified due to the win-loss record.

“I think everybody goes through ups and downs, just like every team does,” LaVine told The Athletic on Tuesday when asked about the matter. “Obviously if we’re not winning games, not everybody’s going to be happy. It’s not going to look as good as it was before. It’s all glitter and show when you’re winning games. But when you’re losing games and you’re trying to do the same things it’s turmoil. Everybody has their right to their own opinion. For me, I keep my head down. I work on my game and try to help my team. I help try to lead the team. That’s where I stand. I just try to take it day by day and evaluate how we’re doing.”

Even more, multiple league sources and sources close to the organization say LaVine and the Bulls are not seeing eye-to-eye. Over the past few weeks, there’s been a palpable feeling across various parts of the franchise of a disconnect over LaVine’s situation in Chicago. All of this has been happening while LaVine is in the first season of a five-year, $215 million maximum deal that was signed this summer.

“There’s a certain level of frustration in people trying to figure out what we can do to help right the ship,” LaVine told The Athletic. “I think with the players that we have, we try to put it on each other to right the ship. We have those type of guys, those type of mentalities where each of us have been number one options on a team before and then we all come together collectively. It’s not going to take one person. It’s going to take all of us as a unit. I think that’s what guys are trying to figure out how to help the group.”

As the saying goes, winning cures all. A year ago, DeRozan, LaVine and these Bulls were clicking on all cylinders while Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Celtics were struggling to find their way. The roles appear reversed a year later, and it jumps out when you look at the standings.

In the third season of Billy Donovan’s tenure, there’s also been increased skepticism within the locker room about the head coach and the coaching staff. For Donovan, the challenge of optimizing DeRozan and LaVine together through a balance of execution, accountability and cooperation looms large. Donovan’s job is currently safe, however, as The Athletic reported that he signed a multiyear contract extension prior to the start of this season.

GO DEEPER

Bulls coach Billy Donovan sets tone for next season: ’We have even more to prove’

The Bulls’ season began with optimism. They returned 12 players from last season’s roster, and the hope was for continuity equating to increased chemistry and better results. The Bulls are a much more complete and dynamic team with Ball healthy, of course, as his ability to push the pace and set the table for DeRozan and LaVine were necessary to last season’s team.

But even with Ball’s status up in the air in terms of when he might return, Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnišovas set this season’s expectations at the team’s media day in September.

“What we want to see is obviously improvement,” he said. “Once you get to the playoffs and have healthy bodies, I think a lot of things can happen. So I think we have to do better than last year. When you get to the playoffs, as always, things happen. A certain team is missing one or two key players and you can get by a round. So those are the expectations.”

From the start, however, the Bulls faced a bumpy road.

LaVine unexpectedly sat out of the team’s first two contests this season, with the team saying his occasional absence would be part of scheduled maintenance centered on managing offseason arthroscopic knee surgery. LaVine fought through a nagging knee issue through the second half of last season, showing tremendous resilience and fortitude to stay on the floor for the first postseason appearance of his career. LaVine could have undergone knee surgery during the season but elected to wait until after the Bulls’ playoff run to ensure his availability for the team.

DeRozan arrived to the Bulls in the 2021 offseason intending to be the second option on most nights behind LaVine and providing LaVine with the support to win more games. In that role, he emerged as one of the league’s best performers, however, with clutch moments, multiple game winners and consistent leadership.

“Now is the time to understand how we can make this work for the whole group. I haven’t played with a talent at that wing position like Zach. He’s one of a kind. I want to put everything I’ve been through in my career, share that with him and win together,” DeRozan said last October.

The duo had a successful first season, leading the Bulls to a 46-36 record and their first playoff berth in four years, having the best record in the East for parts of the first half of the year due to a 27-11 start and appearing to truly enjoy each other’s presence. It’s clear that Ball is an engine for these Bulls: The team went 22-13 with him in the lineup and 24-23 without him. DeRozan and LaVine had seemed to establish a foundation for their partnership last season — except it’s all come into question across the organization this season.

For Karnišovas, the best move of his tenure was acquiring DeRozan, who made the All-NBA second team and received an MVP vote a season ago. DeRozan has played brilliant basketball since joining the Bulls. He’s averaged 27.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists while shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 88.1 percent on almost eight free throws per game. As a fourth-quarter performer, he ranks among the best in the NBA.

DeRozan joined the Bulls on a three-year, $85 million deal in 2021 and will be eligible for an extension this summer worth a maximum of four years and $153.7 million. Do the Bulls view DeRozan as a centerpiece for years to come?

LaVine rebuked the notion that the weight of expectations from his maximum allowable contract has impacted him.

“It hasn’t weighed (on) anything for me. I don’t understand how that gets put into context,” LaVine told The Athletic. “Just because you sign a deal, it’s supposed to be added weight to it? I think there’s added weight each time you step on the court if you don’t perform or you don’t play the right way. But everybody’s open to their own opinion.

“I’ve been improving each and every day I’ve been coming off an injury. If you’re losing, you don’t see that. Obviously, it’s frustrating when you are losing and they’re all these other narratives coming out. It’s not coming from us. It’s coming from outside sources. It’s just what you’ve got to deal with. It comes with the territory. I understand that. I think the team understands that. It doesn’t bug me. I think it’s something that just comes with it.”

In addition, Vucevic is eligible for an extension worth up to four years and $118.2 million but is currently expected to enter free agency in the offseason.

The Bulls’ direction moving forward is clouded over the fact that they still owe the Orlando Magic a top-four protected first-round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. By potentially pivoting from competing for a playoff and Play-In Tournament spot into a full rebuild, the Bulls’ front office would risk still being out of the top four and thus giving Orlando its pick.

And yet should these Bulls continue down this path anyway even with all of this talent, it could leave the organization no choice.

Goran Dragić, the team’s oldest and most experienced player, didn’t sugarcoat the team’s problem following a 150-126 loss at Minnesota on Sunday.

“We’re not playing for each other,” he said. “It’s as simple as that.”

The veteran point guard’s comments followed Donovan’s from an equally candid postgame interview. Donovan has publicly challenged his star trio through the media, but he was more direct than ever Sunday.

“We’ve got to get out of the mindset of worrying about scoring and how’s it going offensively and realize the ball scores,” Donovan said. “And if the ball’s moved and passed whoever scores, scores.”

Donovan echoed Dragić’s sentiments that the Bulls are playing too individualistically and the results won’t begin to change until the team does.

“When we get the mentality that, ‘I feel like I’m doing it for him. And I’m going to do it for him, and I’m going to do it for him. And I’m not letting the guy I’m out there with down,’” Donovan said.

Required reading

(Photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)



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Business

2023 Housing Price Forecasts: More Bears Than Bulls

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2023 housing price forecasts from various institutions range from -22% to + 5.4%. There is no consensus as to which way house prices will go. However, the bias is towards the downside.

There is also the issue of forecasting the national median home price and the price of your local housing market. While we care about the national median home price forecast, we care way more about our local housing market forecast.

For background, I expected the median sales price in the United States to rise by 8% to 10% in 2022. My estimate was less bullish than the majority of firms expecting 12% – 18% price increases.

The 4Q2021 median home price was $423,600. The latest pricing data available, 3Q 2022, shows the median home price of $454,900, or a 7.4% increase. 4Q 2022 housing price data will be released in 1Q 2023.

2023 Housing Price Forecasts

Take a look at the housing price forecasts for 2023 from some popular real estate or real estate-related institutions. They are all over the place!

All housing price forecasts are subject to change over time as datapoints and conditions change. I will update the changes as they happen.

The Most Bearish Housing Forecasts For 2023

John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC): -20% to -22%

Zonda: -10%

Goldman Sachs: -5% to -10%

Redfin: -4%

The Most Bullish Housing Price Forecasts For 2023

Realtor.com: +5.4%

CoreLogic: +4.1%

National Association Of Realtors: +1.2%

The Most Boring Housing Price Forecasts For 2023

Fannie Mae: -1.5%

Freddie Mac: -0.2%

MBA: +0.7%

Zillow: +0.8%

My Thoughts On The Extreme Housing Price Forecasts

When it comes to forecasting, it’s good to first look at the tail ends. It helps to see who is delusional and whether you have any blind spots.

Most Bearish Call

I like the work of John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC). However, they are too pessimistic forecasting a -20% to -22% decline in housing prices in 2023. A 20% median home price decline would bring the national median home price down to about $364,000.

A 20% – 22% price decline would mean a GREATER decline than the one during the global financial crisis. Median home prices declined from $257,000 in 1Q 2007 to $208,400 in 1Q 2009, or -18.9%. Further, it took two years for national median home prices to decline by 18.9%.

It is improbable the national median home price will decline by more than it did during the global financial crisis in half the amount of time. Credit standards are much higher than they were before the 2008 crisis. Meanwhile, the vast majority of homeowners locked in mortgage rates below 5%.

If we say this housing downturn is 30% as bad as the one from 2007 – 2009, then we’d get to a -5.7% housing price decline.

Most Bullish Call

On the flip side, there’s the +5.4% housing price forecast by Realtor dot com. Realtor dot com is a website that helps you find a realtor to buy or sell a home. The realtor pays a referral fee on closed transactions. The stronger the housing market, the more business Realtor dot com will generate.

It’s not a coincidence CoreLogic (+4.1%),the National Association Of Realtors (+1.2%), Mortgage Bankers Association (+0.7%), and Zillow (+0.8%) are all also looking for higher median house prices in 2023. I fear they suffer from business sector bias.

With a Fed-induced recession likely in 2023 and higher average mortgage rates, I think every forecast that shows an increase in 2023 housing prices is wrong. Housing prices lag, not lead.

My 2023 Housing Price Forecast

With an 75% conviction level, I expect the median housing price for 2023 to decline by 8% to $419,000. I’m assuming the median house price ends 2022 at $455,000 based on the St. Louis Fed data.

The reasons include:

  • A global recession by the end of 2023
  • The Fed insisting on hiking to a 5% – 5.125% terminal rate even though inflation is clearly declining and annualizing under 2%
  • A higher risk-free rate makes investing in risk assets less appealing

An 8% decline in housing prices is disappointing for real estate owners. However, real estate has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 25% in 2022. Giving back 8% is not that bad, especially if you bought responsibility or have little-to-no mortgage left.

The reasons why I don’t expect home prices to decline by more than 8% are:

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rates should decline by 2% – 3% from their peak of 7% by mid-2023. 4% – 5% 30-year fixed mortgage rates should bring back demand.
  • The Treasury bond market has stopped listening to the Fed. The 10-year bond yield did not move after the Fed raised rates another 50 bps on December 14, 2022. The huge yield inversion between the 10-year and the 3-month Treasury bond is saying the Fed is making a mistake. And retail mortgage rates are priced largely off the 10-year bond yield.
  • Consumers still have “excess” savings thanks to tremendous stimulus spending in 2020 and 2021.
  • There will continue to be an undersupply of homes. The vast majority of homeowners have 30-year fixed mortgage rates under 5%. Therefore, there’s no need for most to sell.
  • The will be a continued capital shift towards real assets and away from funny money assets like stocks, cryptocurrencies, and anything else that provides zero utility.
  • The average credit score for borrowers of new mortgages is over 720.
  • There is a huge amount of home equity built over the years. Home prices would need to fall by over 40% to have the same proportion of homes under water starting in 2008.

Downside Risks To My Negative Housing Price Forecast: Desperation

One of the biggest unknowns is how much new housing supply will come to market during the traditionally strong spring season. If there are too many desperate sellers, we could see home prices fall by more than 8%.

You also have funky scenarios where a house is priced too high and becomes “stale fish.” You might also encounter extremely motivated sellers going through a divorce. One short-sale can ruin the values of a dozen neighboring homes.

2023 inventory could still be at least 20% below 2015 – 2020 average

The other main downside risk to my negative housing price forecast is a more aggressive Fed. Although the Treasury bond market has stopped believing the Fed, a 5.125% Fed Funds rate will squeeze consumer debt borrowers. Everything from credit card rates to auto loan rates will go up.

A minority of thinly stretched borrowers can cause harm to the majority who have their finances in order. During the global financial crisis, even some of the elites decided to stop paying their mortgages, despite having the money.

Seeing prices fall by 8%+ in your local housing market is easy to see, especially if your housing market showed the most robust gains in 2020 and 2021. Prices in Boise and Austin could easily fall by 20% from their peaks before bottoming if the Fed stays aggressive.

Biggest Upside Risk To My Negative Housing Price Forecast: Stealth Wealth

I may be underestimating the amount of liquid wealth potential buyers are secretly holding. Further, I may also be underestimating how much demand will return to the housing market if mortgage rates do decline by 2% – 3% in 2023.

Personally, I have a lot of cash and short-term Treasury bonds. So do all of my friends. I have a feeling, many Financial Samurai readers have an elevated amount of cash as well.

If many of us are going to be hunting for housing deals in 2023, will housing prices really decline by my forecasted 8%? Maybe not.

When it comes to housing prices, prices tend to get bid up quicker than they fall due to real estate FOMO. Hence, buyers might only have a six-month window remaining to take advantage of big price discounts.

Mortgage Demand Highly Sensitive To Even High Rates

Take a look at this chart below. It shows a surge in mortgage purchase applications as the average 30-year fixed rate fell from 7.1% in October 2022 to 6.3% in mid-December 2022. 6.3% is still high compared to a year ago. Yet mortgage purchase applications still went up 13.8%. That’s surprising during the slow winter months.

Hence, if mortgage rates fall to 4% – 5% by mid-2023, perhaps we will see a 25%+ increase in mortgage purchase applications. The longer the inactivity in real estate transactions, the greater the pent-up demand.

There Will Always Be Opportunities

Real estate continues to be my favorite asset class to build wealth for most people.

Even if all my properties were to decline by 10% on average in 2023, I won’t care because I won’t feel it. I will continue to raise my family in our primary residence. Then I’ll continue to collect my rental income to help pay for our lifestyles.

An asset that provides both income and utility is the best type of asset class to own. However, tenant headaches, maintenance issues, and property taxes can get to even the most patient of real estate investors. As a result, a diversification of investments into stocks, private real estate, bonds, and alternatives that provide truly passive income is recommended.

If you want to buy real estate in 2023, there will be plenty of opportunities to do so at more reasonable prices. The combination of declines in both housing prices and mortgage rates will make real estate more attractive by the middle of 2023. Be patient.

When that time comes, I just hope nobody bids against me. Being able to buy my current forever home after the lockdowns began on March 18, 2020, was ideal. If I had faced competition, I would have easily paid 4% more.

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Reader Questions And Suggestions

Readers, what are your housing price forecasts for 2023 and why? Are you planning on hunting for deals in 2023? What would cause you to sell your property in 2023?

If you want to invest in real estate more surgically, take a look at Fundrise. I just had an hour-long conversation with Ben Miller, CEO of Fundrise. Its income fund is generating an 8%+ yield. Further, Fundrise is using its existing cash to hunt for distressed deals with 12-14% yields. Our views about 2023 housing prices are very similar.

For more nuanced personal finance content, join 55,000+ others and sign up for the free Financial Samurai newsletter and posts via e-mail. Financial Samurai is one of the largest independently-owned personal finance sites that started in 2009. 

Filed Under: Real Estate

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Sports

Knicks 114, Bulls 91: Scenes from a sequel even better than the original

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The Chicago Bulls are not good at the moment. For us children of the 1990s, however, that doesn’t matter. Beating the Bulls will always be fun. And the Knicks absolutely stomped the Bulls in the second half en route to a 114-91 victory.

After needing overtime to defeat Chicago on Wednesday, the Knicks smacked the Bulls around for the final three quarters.

The backcourt duo of Jalen Brunson (22 points, 6-9 from three) and Quentin Grimes (22 points, 5-9 from three) lit up Chicago from beyond the arc.

The defense was on point in the fourth. Watch Jericho Sims shut down guard Alex Caruso, then Miles McBride picking off the pass and taking it in for the layup.

RJ Barrett (game-high 27 points) struggled in the first half with his shooting, but absolutely lit it up after halftime.

The Knicks led by 30 in the fourth, and since this is their last game of the season in Chicago, Thibs indulged the Windy City faithful by playing Derrick Rose.

Great game! I’m a bit under the weather at the moment, so I’ll get the recap tomorrow. Have a good evening.

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Sports

Bulls’ Zach LaVine (knee) to miss season opener vs. Heat

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1:31 PM ET

  • Jamal CollierESPN

Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine will miss the team’s regular-season opener against the Miami Heat on Wednesday night with left knee injury management, according to Bulls public relations.

LaVine told reporters after shootaround on Wednesday morning in Miami that his absence was not tied to a setback but rather load management for his knee.

He was not sure of his status for Friday’s game against the Washington Wizards, the front end of a back-to-back before the team’s home opener against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday.

LaVine, who signed a five-year, $215 million max contract this past offseason, played through lingering soreness in his knee during the second half of the 2021-22 season before undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery in May. However, he and the Bulls have continually expressed confidence in his health from the start of training camp, and LaVine played in the team’s first three preseason games, averaging 21.8 minutes per game before sitting out the finale.

As recently as after practice Friday, LaVine once again reiterated confidence in his health exiting the preseason.

“I just feel good,” he said then. “I think that’s been the main thing is not having any aches and pains and being able to go out there and really play without limitations in my own mind. … I’m just happy I feel better.”

LaVine has made the All-Star team the past two seasons and averaged 24.4 points on 47.6% shooting in 67 games last season. The Bulls are already without point guard Lonzo Ball to begin the season while he recovers from knee surgery near the start of training camp.

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Sports

Why Red Bull’s F1 rivals see its “minor” breach as anything but

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But what is crystal clear is that while the labelling of Red Bull’s overspend has been officially classified as a “minor” breach, its opposition sees it as anything but a small matter.

To be classified as a “minor” offence rather than a “material” one, teams must have overspent by less than 5% of the allowance. So with last year’s cost cap being roughly $145 million, that could still be up to $7.25 million.

There has been no confirmation from the FIA or Red Bull about the scale of the breach, but there have been plenty of suggestions it is somewhere between $1 million and $2 million.

That may seem quite a small amount of money in the grand scheme of things but when it comes to development budgets, extra spending like that ultimately makes a big difference.

Lewis Hamilton has made reference to just $500,000 more development money being unlocked for Mercedes last year as enough to allow it to bring a new floor design, which would have lifted the pace of his car to potentially change the outcome of the title chase.

As his team boss Toto Wolff said at the Singapore GP: “If it is a so-called minor breach, I think the word is probably not correct.

“If you’re spending 5 million more, and you’re still in the minor breach, it still has a big impact on the championship.

“To give you an idea, we obviously monitor closely which parts are being brought to the track from the top teams every single race – 2021 season and 2022 season.

“We can see that there are two top teams that are just about the same and there is another team that spends more. So we know exactly that we’re spending three and a half million a year in parts that we bring to the car. And then you can see what difference it makes to spend another 500,000 – it would be a difference.

“We haven’t produced lightweight parts for the car in order to bring us down from a double-digit overweight because we simply haven’t got the money. So we need to do it for next year’s car.

“We can’t homologate a lightweight chassis and bring it in, because it’s just $2 million that we will be over the cap. So you can see every spend more has a performance advantage.”

It is this trade-off between spending and performance that top teams have had to juggle under the cost cap era, and that is why the overspending of a rival is such a big matter for them.

Ferrari in particular has called several times for maximum sanctions given out. The team believes it is the only way to ensure that squads robustly follow the cost cap in the future and aren’t encouraged to game the system by trading off an overspend to secure richer rewards than any punishment dished out will cost them.

Ferrari has said nothing publicly since the FIA’s statement on Red Bull’s breach, but it is understood the team’s stance remains unchanged, and that it wants financial breaches to be treated as strictly as technical infringements where cars are disqualified if parts a few millimetres out.

For Red Bull’s main rivals, perhaps even more important than any potential sanction being handed is that there is complete transparency in how the case is handled.

So far, the FIA has offered little insight into the scale and motives of the Red Bull breach, and that lack of information for such a big topic has inevitably triggered wild speculation.

Was Red Bull’s procedural and minor overspend the result of a small paperwork delay and innocent spending – such as a subsidised canteen at Milton Keynes, sick pay and gardening leave payments – being unexpectedly added on to the team budget by FIA interpretations and pushing it over the limit?

Or has there been some deliberate attempt to fudge paperwork, block investigations and deliberately find ways around the cost cap to ensure that Red Bull can spend more on car development than its rivals?

Red Bull’s “surprise and disappointment” at being accused of breaching the cost cap would suggest it was more the first case. However, without firm answers, rivals’ suspicions will inevitably fear it could be the second.

That is why it is essential, as much for Red Bull as for the rest of the grid, that the FIA explains things in detail, and does not go down the route of secret backroom deals.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB18, 2nd position, Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, 3rd position, in Parc Ferme

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

F1’s financial regulations are actually clear in how they require the FIA to publish details of the decisions made in relation to rule breaches.

If teams choose to go for an Accepted Breach Agreement, where it owns up and takes responsibility for breaking the rules, then the matter will be released.

Article 6.32 of F1’s financial regulations states: “The Cost Cap Administration will publish a summary of the terms of the ABA, detailing the breach, any sanctions, and any enhanced monitoring procedures, omitting any Confidential Information.”

Even if the team chooses to take the matter on and go in front of judges so it can plead its case, then equally the final judgement will be made public.

Article 7.27 of the rules states: “The Cost Cap Adjudication Panel will publish the decision of the judging panel and the grounds upon which they are based, save for any Confidential Information.”

But while these offer some hope of answers for Red Bull’s rivals about the scale and scope of what happened, and the FIA’s responses, they still open the door for the governing body to try to play matters down.

Read Also:

For now, Red Bull’s rivals are holding a watching brief and awaiting the next steps.

As Ferrari team principal Mattia Binotto said at the weekend: “I think what we need and what I’m expecting is full transparency and clarity on the discussions that may have happened.”

And if that is not forthcoming, then the FIA risks an even bigger controversy in the future.

Make any sanction too weak, or leave other teams unclear about the details of the cost cap breach by keeping things too secret, and trust in the whole system will break down very quickly.

That would then threaten the very existence of the cost cap which has been viewed as a core element of F1’s long-term health.

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Sports

FC Dallas find blueprint for success, Red Bulls need a scorer to step up & more from Week 25

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Patient build-up, back-to-front, side-to-side, using both touchlines to spread the opponents out and using the defenders and some clever off-ball movement (Mark Delgado’s slip out of the midfield is timed to pull one of Vancouver’s midfielders out) to open up both passing and running lanes. A measured ball into the channel – sure, the defender misplays it, but good ball movement + great speed causes pressure, and pressure causes mistakes – for Kevin Cabral to run onto. A teed-up one-time finish for Samuel Grandsir.

The Galaxy won 5-2 on Saturday night, roasting Vancouver on a spit made of sequences like that one. These are the types of sequences LA have been putting together all year long, and this weekend the difference is that Grandsir (x2), Victor Vazquez and Efra Alvarez actually finished them off (Chicharito also potted a PK).

“Sam, over the course of his time here, he’s gotten himself in a lot of those types of positions, and, unfortunately a lack of execution sometimes, in some of those moments, but he’s been able to get in those positions,” head coach Greg Vanney said afterward. “Like the second goal when he’s able to curl things to the back post, [in the past] he just missed, or things like that. And tonight he found the back of the net.”

That’s the whole story for the Galaxy this season. They’ve played like a top 3 team in the conference, but haven’t finished plays off. If they start finishing plays off, they’ll make the playoffs. If they don’t, they won’t.

This was Vancouver’s worst game in months. Nothing but six-pointers coming up so they’re not out of it yet, but the Galaxy just killed them.

2. Emanuel Reynoso outdueled Hany Mukhtar late Sunday night in a duel of two of the league’s best No. 10s as Minnesota went down to Nashville and came away with all three points thanks to a 2-1 win.

Bebelo assisted on both Loons goals – the first a primary assist after Minnesota had turned Nashville over via the press, and the second a pass-before-the-pass job where he’d released the winger to cross low across the six.

Reynoso is just a genius at unlocking those kinds of chances for his teammates, and credit to Adrian Heath for getting the rest of that attack to understand that if they run, they win. As per Second Spectrum’s tracking data, Franco Fragapane and Bongi Hlongwane are both among the league leaders in off-ball attacking runs per 90, and if you’re playing with Reynoso, that is the exact way to go about your job.

Mukhtar is more direct – less of an orchestrator and more of a goalscorer, and true to his role, he got Nashville’s only goal. 

As usual, though, that was it. Nashville created a ton of half-chances but don’t have the sort of attacking structure or talent to turn dynamic superiority into full, big chances. There are not many one-touch finishes in the box, which are the types of goals that Minnesota have ridden up to fourth in the West.

1. And finally, our Face of the Week goes to Brian Schmetzer:



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Business

Why stock market bulls are cheering the S&P 500’s close above 4,231

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The S&P 500 index on Friday finished above a chart level that delivered a dose of encouragement to stock-market bulls arguing that the U.S. bear-market bottom is in, though technical analysts warned that it might not be a signal to go all in on equities.

The S&P 500
SPX,
+1.73%
on Friday rose 1.7% to close at 4,280.15. The finish above 4,231 would mean the large-cap benchmark has recovered — or retraced — more than 50% of its fall from a Jan. 3 record finish at 4796.56.

“Since 1950 there has never been a bear market rally that exceeded the 50% retracement and then gone on to make new cycle lows,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note earlier this month.

Stocks rose across the board Friday, with the S&P 500 booking a fourth straight weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.27%
advanced more than 420 points, or 1.3%, on Friday and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+2.09%
rose 2.1%. The S&P 500 attempted to complete the retracement in Thursday’s session, when it traded as high as 4,257.91, but gave up gains to end at 4,207.27.

Krinsky, in a Thursday update, had noted that an intraday breach of the level doesn’t cut it, but had cautioned that a close above 4,231 would still leave him cautious about the near-term outlook.

“Because the retracement is based on a closing basis, we would want to see a close above 4,231 to trigger that signal. Whether or not that happens, however, the tactical risk/reward looks poor to us here,” he wrote.

What’s so special about a 50% retracement? Many technical analysts pay attention to what’s known as the Fibonacci ratio, attributed to a 13th century Italian mathematician known as Leonardo “Fibonacci” of Pisa. It’s based on a sequence of whole numbers in which the sum of two adjacent numbers equals the next highest number (0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13, 21 …).

If a number in the sequence is divided by the next number, for example 8 divided by 13, the result is near 0.618, a ratio that’s been dubbed the Golden Mean due to its prevalence in nature in everything from seashells to ocean waves to proportions of the human body. Back on Wall Street, technical analysts see key retracement targets for a rally from a significant low to a significant peak at 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%, while retracements of 23.6% and 76.4% are seen as secondary targets.

The push above the 50% retracement level during Thursday’s recession may have contributed to a round of selling itself, said Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, in a Friday note.

He observed that the retracement corresponded to a 65-day high for the S&P 500, offering another indication of an improving trend in a bear market as it represents the highest level of the last rolling quarter. A 65-day high is often seen as a default signal for commodity trading advisers, not just in the S&P 500 but in commodity, bond and forex markets as well.

“That level coincidentally corresponded with the 50% retracement level of the bear market,” he wrote. “In essence, it forced the hand of one group to cover shorts (CTAs) while simultaneously giving another group (Fibonacci followers) an excuse to sell” on Thursday.

Krinsky, meanwhile, cautioned that previous 50% retracements in 1974, 2004 and 2009 all saw decent shakeouts shortly after clearing that threshold.

“Further, as the market has cheered ‘peak inflation’, we are now seeing a quiet resurgence in many commodities, and bonds continue to weaken,” he wrote Thursday.

See: Stock-market euphoria meets bond-market pessimism as ‘strange week’ comes to end

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Bulls To Sign Goran Dragic

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The Bulls are fortifying their backcourt bench depth with a new veteran addition. Chicago will sign former All-NBA point guard Goran Dragic to a one-year contract, per Jordan Schultz of the Pull Up Podcast (Twitter link).

Dragic, most recently with the Nets, will earn $2.9MM, the veteran’s minimum, next season, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic.

Dragic, who has an All-Star season and an All-NBA season on his résumé, played a crucial role during the Heat’s NBA Finals run within the Orlando “bubble” campus in 2020. The Slovenian guard’s production fell to earth the next season amid injury troubles, and he was ultimately dealt to the Raptors in the sign-and-trade agreement that landed Kyle Lowry with the Heat in the 2021 offseason.

Last year, Dragic appeared in just five games with Toronto before reaching an agreement to leave the club as it sought out a suitable trade. The 36-year-old was shipped to the Spurs and negotiated a buyout with San Antonio, then latched on with the Nets as a free agent.

Across 16 games with Brooklyn, including six starts, Dragic averaged 7.3 PPG, 4.8 APG and 3.2 RPG, while posting .376/.245/.739 shooting splits. Though his assist and rebounding numbers were in line with his career averages of 4.8 APG and 3.1 RPG, his scoring efficiency across 25.5 MPG for Brooklyn was a far cry from his 14-year career average of 13.7 PPG on .460/.362/.767 shooting.

The addition of Dragic marks Chicago’s fourth free agent agreement this offseason. The team agreed to re-sign All-Star shooting guard Zach LaVine to a maximum deal, is bringing back deep-bench reserve forward Derrick Jones Jr., and will add journeyman reserve center Andre Drummond to boost its rebounding.

As Yossi Gozlan of HoopsHype observes (via Twitter), thanks to Dragic’s minimum-salary deal, the Bulls are now approximately $1.7MM below the luxury tax this season, carrying a projected 15 players on guaranteed contracts. Gozlan adds that Chicago has around $7MM left to use from its non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

Any further Bulls roster changes seem more likely to come via trade than free agency. Opening up a roster spot now to add another free agent would require trading or waiving a current Bull with a guaranteed salary. The team also has a $5MM trade exception that will expire after July 7.

If the Bulls do make a deal, it could involve their backcourt depth. The team adds to a group of guards that already includes Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso, Ayo Dosunmu, and Coby White, though Ball’s health heading into next season remains a question mark.

K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago reports that the team anticipates this current roster will be intact for training camp in the fall, though he acknowledges that the team does appear to have a surplus of guards.



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2022 NBA free agency rumors: Live updates as James Harden, 76ers discuss new deal; Bulls pay Zach LaVine

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The 2022 NBA free agency period got started not with a signing, but with Kevin Durant’s stunning request to be traded from the Brooklyn Nets. With Kyrie Irving also expected to follow him out the door, that drama and intrigue has stolen the show the last few days. 

It’s perhaps fitting, then, that the first few days of free agency have been highlighted with blockbuster trades, including the Minnesota Timberwolves acquiring Rudy Gobert from the Utah Jazz, the Atlanta Hawks adding Dejounte Murray from the San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics getting Malcolm Brogdon from the Indiana Pacers. 

But for all the movement via trades, there’s still been plenty of movement in the actual free agent market. Among the notable deals were Jalen Brunson joining the New York Knicks, John Wall to the Los Angeles Clippers and Otto Porter Jr. heading north of the border to the Toronto Raptors. 

Furthermore, the likes of Zach LaVine (Chicago Bulls) and Bradley Beal (Washington Wizards) have agreed to max deals to return to their teams, while Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets), Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns) and Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota Timberwolves) have agreed to max extensions. 

At this point, there aren’t too many big names left on the market. One deal that does still have to be sorted out, however, is James Harden’s return to the Philadelphia 76ers. He’s meeting with the team in the Hamptons this weekend in order to figure out what will likely be a short-term deal. 

More on free agency: Top available players | FA Tracker | Winners and losers

Follow below for all the latest deals, updates and more as NBA free agency continues into the weekend.

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2022 NBA free agency rumors: Live updates as Zach Lavine, Bulls agree on max deal; Knicks, Celtics make moves

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NBA free agency is moving along swiftly after starting Thursday at 6 p.m. ET, when teams could start negotiating deals with players. However, contracts won’t actually be official until the moratorium period is lifted on July 6. Hours before free agency officially kicked off, Kevin Durant requested a trade away from the Brooklyn Nets. One of the NBA’s biggest superstars is now set to change teams this summer, and K.D.’s trade request will undoubtedly impact how teams handle their offseason business.

Zach LaVine (Bulls) and Bradley Beal (Wizards) both agreed on max deals to return to their respective teams. The Knicks agreed on an early deal with Jalen Brunson along with other moves. Also, the Eastern Conference champion Celtics improved after pulling off a trade to land Pacers guard Malcolm Brogdon, and are set to sign Danilo Gallinari as well. The NBA has reportedly told teams the salary cap for next season is projected to be set at $123.6 million, up $11.6 million from last year’s $112 million cap figure.

More on free agency: Top available players | FA Tracker | Winners and losers

Follow below for all the latest deals, updates and more as NBA free agency continues in Day 2.

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