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New Research Bolsters Theory that Climate Change Will Make Our Space Trash Problem Even Worse

Conceptual image of space debris around Earth, not to scale.

Two massive, catastrophic problems are set to become one in the near future: Climate change is likely to worsen the issue of space debris, according to a study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters last month.

Shifts in air density could result in an extra-crowded upper atmosphere, making satellite collisions more likely. What’s more, the recent research projects that, under middle-of-the-road climate scenarios, the upper atmosphere will lose density twice as fast in the future as it has in the past.

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“Space debris is becoming a rapidly growing problem for satellite operators due to the risk of collisions,” said Ingrid Cnossen, an atmospheric scientist at the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council and the study’s lead researcher, in a press release from the British Antarctic Survey. “The long-term decline in upper atmosphere density is making [the issue] even worse,” she added.

Graphic of debris in Low Earth Orbit

NASA tracks the approximate number of objects in orbit around Earth. This graphic, based on 2019 data, shows all of the objects currently tracked in Low Earth Orbit.

It’s counterintuitive, but as humans continue to pump greenhouse gases into the lower atmosphere, thereby heating up the surface of our planet, we’re simultaneously making the middle and upper atmosphere cooler. The reasons are multifold, but one big contributing factor is CO2 emissions.

Carbon dioxide molecules readily absorb heat. In the lower atmosphere, that means more molecules slamming into each other and more heat being reflected back to Earth. But in the upper atmosphere, where there are fewer molecules around to begin with, heat-trapping CO2 holds onto energy so tightly that it’s more likely to escape to space than run into another particle and warm up the thin air.

And as the upper atmosphere cools, it’s also losing density. Less dense air means satellites and other space objects orbiting Earth face less drag. Our atmosphere is supposed to be self-cleaning, with objects falling out of orbit and burning up on their way down. However, in a less dense environment, satellites and space trash stay aloft for longer.

Accumulating atmospheric space debris is, on its own, a growing, looming crisis. We rely on satellite infrastructure for communications,  research and data collection, and weather forecasting—and we’re rapidly running out of real estate. There have already been some worrying collisions and close calls.

Currently, there are more than 30,000 pieces of track-able stuff circulating in low Earth orbit, according to the European Space Agency. NASA estimates that about 23,000 pieces of debris bigger than a softball are orbiting Earth, and about 100 million teeny-tiny pieces. And every collision creates even more bits of trash. Add in climate change, and crashes could multiply further.

Previous research reached similar conclusions. A 2021 publication, which Cnossen also contributed to, found that objects in low Earth orbit will have lifetimes 30% longer under 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming, compared with the year 2000.

The recent findings bolster those past conclusions and offer a new quantification of atmospheric change. The upper atmosphere is set to lose heat and density twice as fast over the next 50 years as it has in the past half century, according to the research. This acceleration closely follows the simultaneous expected rise in atmospheric CO2 levels between now and 2070, wrote the study author.

Cnossen relied on computer models to come to that conclusion. She used climate, emissions, and atmospheric data to generate one of the most complete models of climate change across the upper atmosphere to date.

“Changes we saw between the climate in the upper atmosphere over the last 50 years and our predictions for the next 50 are the result of carbon dioxide emissions,” said Cnossen in the press release. For the satellite industry and policymakers, understanding climate change—beyond Earth’s surface— “is increasingly important,” she added.

In follow-up work, the scientist is hoping to explore a wider range of climate and CO2 emission scenarios, to better prepare the world for all possible space junk outcomes.

And ideally, a greater understanding of the problem will lead to meaningful solutions. “I hope this work will help to guide appropriate action to control the space pollution problem,” Cnossen noted in the statement. Ultimately, she wants to “ensure that the upper atmosphere remains a usable resource into the future.”

More: What to Know About Kessler Syndrome, the Ultimate Space Disaster

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Michael Sussmann trial: Testimony from ex-FBI official bolsters Durham’s case against Clinton campaign lawyer

Former FBI general counsel James Baker, Durham’s most critical witness, told a jury in Washington, DC, about his September 2016 meeting with Sussmann, where Sussmann passed along the tip about Trump.

Sussmann has pleaded not guilty to one count of lying to the FBI — specifically that he falsely told Baker he wasn’t there on behalf of any clients.

“He said he was not appearing before me on behalf of any particular client, and that he had some information that was of concern relating to an apparently surreptitious communications channel between something called Alfa Bank — which he described as being connected to the Kremlin in Russia — and some part of the Trump Organization in the United States,” Baker said.

The FBI looked into the Trump-Alfa tip and determined within weeks that “there was nothing there,” Baker said. One of the central theories of Durham’s case is that Sussmann brought the tip to Baker on Clinton’s behalf, but concealed his campaign ties as part of a scheme to dupe the FBI into investigating Trump, and then to gin up an “October surprise” about it in the press.

On the witness stand, Baker said he “trusted” Sussmann’s claim that he was there on his own because they were friends, and he knew Sussmann as “a serious lawyer” who worked for the Justice Department and had cybersecurity expertise needed to understand the Trump-Alfa data.

“I thought he was coming to see me as a good citizen who had obtained some information,” Baker testified. “Knowing Michael, I would think he would want to help the government.”

Baker’s testimony could give a boost to Durham, the Trump-era special prosecutor who has spent three years investigating potential misconduct in the FBI’s Trump-Russia probe. He hasn’t delivered any of the bombshell indictments that Trump has hoped for, and the Sussmann trial is the first major courtroom test of his inquiry, which has brought charges against three people.

But the verdict could turn on how jurors assess Baker’s credibility. Sussmann’s lawyers tried to chip away at that with a meandering cross-examination that highlighted how Baker’s answers to key questions shifted when testifying to Congress in 2018, to the Justice Department watchdog in 2019, in his many interviews with Durham’s prosecutors, and on the witness stand this week.

Defense attorney Sean Berkowitz got Baker to acknowledge that it was actually the prosecutors who “triggered my memory” of what happened six years ago at the Sussmann meeting. Baker said that when he met with prosecutors in recent years, they refreshed his recollection by asking pointed questions and showing him notes that an FBI official wrote about their conversations.

Judge rules against mistrial

Earlier on Thursday, Judge Christopher Cooper rejected Sussmann’s request for a mistrial.

Lawyers for Sussmann had argued Wednesday that he can’t get a fair trial because one of the witnesses suggested Sussmann could answer a key question by testifying in his own defense, violating his constitutional rights. The witness was Marc Elias, who served as the top lawyer for Clinton’s campaign, and was otherwise a relatively helpful witness for Sussmann’s defense.

Prosecutors called Elias to the stand, but it was the defense attorneys who spurred him to make the comment in question. They asked if he knew whether Sussmann brought the Trump-Alfa tip to Baker “on behalf of the (Clinton) campaign.” Elias replied, “You’d have to ask Mr. Sussmann.”

Cooper ruled form the bench against a mistrial Thursday morning, but he approved Sussmann’s request to strike some of the problematic portions of Elias’ testimony from the court record.

The defense lawyers also said Sussmann hasn’t decided whether he’ll testify in his own defense. They are preparing to put on a defense case with a handful of fact witnesses and character witnesses.

This story has been updated with additional details.

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Russia Ukraine: US carrier bolsters NATO to counter invasion threat as tensions reach fever pitch

A flight director on the United States Navy carrier gestures towards the jet, giving the go ahead for a catapult like-system to sling the aircraft towards the edge of a seemingly impossibly short runway.

Within seconds, it’s in the air and nearly out of sight.

This intricate process is one that pilots and crew on this Nimitz-class carrier — an emblem of US military might — repeat over and over again, with uncanny precision. And they’re doing so unfazed by the circumstances of their presence in the Adriatic Sea as tensions between the US and Russia reach fever pitch.

This is the first time since the end of the Cold War that a carrier strike group, which includes the Truman and five other ships escorting it (plus at least one or two submarines whose presence is never publicly acknowledged) has been under NATO command.

“This is the first time I’ve worked with NATO out on a carrier,” F/A-18 fighter jet pilot Lt. Cmdr. Alex Tidei told CNN.

“It’s the first time for a lot of our pilots — so that’s been a great experience,” he added, seemingly unaffected by the tensions around him.

The Truman — which carries 90 aircraft on board, including a fleet of F/A-18s — was on its way to the Middle East in mid-December, but the Pentagon decided to keep it in Europe as tensions began to escalate.

Rear Adm. Curt Renshaw, commander of Strike Group Eight, of which Truman is a part, told CNN: “I think it sends the message to allies that they can count on us. We’re committed to our alliances or partnerships — we’re able to operate, plug and play anywhere in the world.”

With the Truman near European shores, its jets can get to most of Eastern Europe in less than an hour, and its presence in the region gives NATO members like Bulgaria, Romania and Poland additional security guarantees.

While US President Joe Biden has said that the US will not intervene militarily but rather impose economic sanctions if Russia further invades Ukraine, he has decided to reinforce its deterrence capabilities in Europe.

On Wednesday, the Pentagon approved the deployment of additional troops to NATO’s Eastern flank.

“It’s totally consistent with what I told (Russian President Vladimir) Putin in the beginning,” Biden told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins Wednesday.

“As long as he’s acting aggressively, we’re going to make sure we reassure our NATO allies and Eastern Europe (that) we’re there and Article V is a sacred obligation,” Biden said, referencing the cornerstone of the NATO alliance: An attack against one ally is considered an attack against all.

And that’s what the Truman’s exercises are preparing for.

“What we bring to strategic decision makers is that we are able to execute absolutely to perfection, we’re able to integrate with partners,” Renshaw said, adding: “If at the tactical level, we’re on our game, then that that allows the options that I think the senior decision makers need to do.”

The Truman just wrapped a two-week-long exercise with NATO allies in the Adriatic Sea, alongside Norwegian and Turkish warships, additional vessels and aircraft from other NATO member states.

According to the alliance, thousands of NATO forces were involved in the exercise.

Lt. Cmdr. Jeannette Lazzaro, who flies the US Navy’s E-2 Hawkeye — an early warning aircraft that plays a key role in coordinating with NATO allies — told CNN she’s not concerned about rising tensions between the US and Russia.

Still, she believes the exercises are important to ensure that the US and NATO “are all working together.”

“If we ever do have to do anything, we are all on the same page,” she said.

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Is That a Burning Bush? Is This Mt. Sinai? Solstice Bolsters a Claim

MOUNT KARKOM, Israel — The mountain kept its secrets for centuries, its air of sacred mystery enhanced by a remote location in the Negev Desert in southern Israel.

But one day last week, hundreds of Israeli adventurers headed deep into the wilderness to reach Mount Karkom, determined to get closer to answering a question as intriguing as it is controversial: Is this the Mount Sinai of the Bible, where God is believed to have communicated with Moses?

Mount Sinai’s location has long been disputed by scholars both religious and academic, and there are a dozen more traditional contenders, most of them in the mountainous expanses of the Sinai Peninsula across the border in Egypt.

But Mount Karkom’s claim has gained some popular support because of an annual natural phenomenon that an intrepid group of archaeology and nature enthusiasts had come to witness for themselves.

In 2003, a local Israeli guide and ecologist happened to be atop Karkom’s vast plateau one day in late December around the time of the winter solstice, when he came upon a marvel.

At midday, with the sun low in the sky on one of the shortest days of the year, he peered across a deep ravine and spotted a strange aura of light, flickering like flames, emanating from a spot on a sheer rock face.

It was sunlight reflected at a particular angle off the sides of a cave, but the discovery soon made its way to Israeli television and was fancifully named “the burning bush.” Perhaps this, some said, was the supernatural fire that, according to the Book of Exodus, Moses saw on the holy mountain when God first spoke to him, and where he would later receive the Ten Commandments as he led the Israelites out of Egypt.

The burning bush, never consumed by the fire, is symbolic in Judaism, Christianity, Islam and other faiths including Baha’i.

But decades before this accidental astronomical discovery, Mount Karkom was already captivating some archaeologists with hints that the site had played an important spiritual role thousands of years ago.

More than half a century ago, Emmanuel Anati, a young Italian archaeologist, found an extraordinary concentration of thousands of rock carvings and rock circles as he surveyed the plateau of Mount Karkom, about 2,500 feet above sea level. Among the rock drawings are many of ibexes, but also some that have been interpreted as depicting the tablets of the commandments or other references from the Bible.

At the base of Mount Karkom, named in Hebrew for a desert crocus, there is evidence that ancient migration trails converged here and that cultic rituals took place in the area. Mr. Anati identified what he thought was a sacrificial altar with the remains of 12 pillars of stone that could conceivably correspond to the one described in Exodus 24 that Moses built, representing the 12 tribes of Israel.

In his writings, Professor Anati said he had not set out to look for Mount Sinai. But after years of fieldwork and exploration, he proposed in the early 1980s that, on the basis of topographical and archaeological evidence, Mount Karkom “should be identified with the sacred mountain of the biblical narrations.”

But aside from usual difficulties of desert archaeology — nomads tend to leave few permanent traces — and the whole question of whether any archaeology could be tied to the biblical story of the Exodus at all, Professor Anati’s theory posed a problem of chronology.

Israel Finkelstein, a professor emeritus of archaeology at Tel Aviv University and an early critic of Professor Anati’s theory, said that most, if not all, of the datable sites around Mount Karkom are from the third millennium B.C.

The Exodus, if it happened, is generally dated to sometime around 1600-1200 B.C.

“So there is more than one millennium gap between the reality at Karkom and the biblical tradition,” Professor Finkelstein said, adding that since the evidence is vague, and identifying such sites as cultic is a matter of interpretation, “It is perhaps safer not to speculate.”

However heated the academic debate, the air was chilly when a convoy of sturdy jeeps with four-wheel drive set out for the mountain through jagged terrain at dawn on the day of the winter solstice.

Access to Mount Karkom is usually limited to weekends and certain holidays because it requires passing through a military firing and training zone. A paved road that helps shorten the hourslong journey, much of which takes place on dirt tracks, has mostly been closed to civilian traffic in recent years because of the fear of cross-border attacks by Islamic militants from the Sinai.

This year, in a midweek first, the military opened the paved road and allowed passage through the firing zone for the Burning Bush seekers.

As the group arrived in the parking lot at the foot of Mount Karkom, there was an unexpected bonus: Professor Anati, now in his early 90s, was sitting in a deck chair, holding court and promoting his books.

In the search for Mount Sinai, Professor Anati said, some insist for political or nationalistic reasons that the site must be within the borders of Israel, not in Egypt. Others, for religious reasons, say it must be outside the borders, to comply with the tradition of the Israelites wandering in the desert for 40 years before reaching the Promised Land.

“None of these approaches is correct; one must seek the truth,” Professor Anati said. “I bring all the opinions and evidence and let the reader decide for themselves,” he said, adding of the mountain’s treasures, “This is the story of the history of humankind.”

After a steep climb up the side of Karkom to its windy plateau, scores of people fanned along the ridge and peered across the ravine at the distant window in the cliff to spy the “burning bush.”

Without binoculars or biblical vision, it was possible to make out a strange, if faint, glow, though some visitors expressed disappointment that the aura around the cave mouth was not more fiery.

But stumbling across the rocky plateau, it was thrilling to come across pieces of ancient rock art, the images chipped into the dark brown patina of stones, exposing the light limestone below.

Shahar Shilo, a researcher who manages the Negev Highlands Tourism cooperative, spoke of the importance for ancient peoples of being able to measure the seasons for agricultural purposes, and the holiness imbued in those who could identify with precision the shortest day of the calendar.

Mr. Shilo also had a more prosaic explanation for why Mount Karkom had drawn people there in the distant past: the ready supply of quality flint that was crucial for anything from hunting to household tools. Even after much of humanity had advanced into the Bronze and Iron Ages, he said, the desert dwellers here still depended on stone.

Whether this is Mount Sinai and the winter solstice phenomenon the burning bush “is in the eye of the beholder,” Mr. Shilo said.

“But,” he added, “it’s a great myth, you have to admit.”

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Hong Kong Elections: How ‘Patriots Only’ Bolsters Beijing’s Grip

Election Day was a subdued affair, despite the government’s extensive efforts to gin up enthusiasm.

Volunteers and candidates made last-minute pitches at street stands outside subway stations, handing out fliers as loudspeakers blared prerecorded slogans, but most passers-by ignored them.

At polling stations across the city, lines were few and far between. At one station on the western side of Hong Kong island on Sunday afternoon, three police officers stood watch as pedestrians streamed past, hardly any stopping to enter.

More than 10,000 police officers were deployed across the city, officials said, as well as 900 staff members of the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the government body overseeing the ban on calling for vote boycotts.

By 7:30 p.m., 27 percent of eligible voters had turned out for the few directly elected seats, compared with 44 percent at the same time during the last election, in 2016. (Though polls opened one hour earlier that year.)

Ling Lui, 26, who showed up to vote with her father at a polling station in eastern Hong Kong Island, said the “patriots only” election would benefit Hong Kong. She was looking, she said, for a candidate who would “love Hong Kong, dare to speak out and be active.”

Paul Lai, 50, was less confident. He had to wait in line to vote in previous elections, he said after casting his ballot, but this year, there were just two or three people inside his polling station. He attributed the lower turnout in part to the candidates, many of whom he said were new and unfamiliar faces.

Asked how he chose who to vote for, he said, “Nothing, really. Just look at their platform, if they have one.” (Some of the candidates did not release platforms or had no social media presence.) He continued: “There’s nothing you can do. Just pick one at random.”

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Indonesia bolsters recovery efforts after volcano kills 34

JAKARTA, Dec 7 (Reuters) – Indonesian President Joko Widodo promised on Tuesday to bolster evacuation efforts and repair damaged homes after visiting the site of a volcanic eruption on Java that has killed at least 34 people.

The 3,676-metre Mt. Semeru volcano erupted on Saturday sending a cloud of ash into the sky and dangerous pyroclastic flows into villages below. L1N2SP05Y

Thousands of people have been displaced and 22 remain missing, according to the disaster mitigation agency.

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After visiting evacuation centres and surveying the area by helicopter – getting an aerial view of villages submerged in molten ash – the president said recovery efforts would be bolstered now and in the months ahead.

“I came to the site to ensure that we have the forces to locate the victims,” said the president, speaking from Sumberwuluh, one of the worst-hit areas.

A man with an umbrella walks amongst damaged houses looking for his goat in an area affected by the eruption of Mount Semeru volcano in Curah Kobokan, Pronojiwo district, Lumajang, Indonesia, December 6, 2021. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan

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“We hope that after everything has subsided, that everything can start – fixing infrastructure or even relocating those from the places we predict are too dangerous to return to.”

At least 2,000 homes would need to be relocated to safer areas, he said.

Search and rescue efforts continued on Tuesday but have been hampered by wind and rain, and limited equipment in some areas.

Mt. Semeru erupted three times on Tuesday. Indonesia’s Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation said on Monday there was potential for further flows of hot gas, ash and rocks.

Mt. Semeru is one of more than 100 active volcanoes in Indonesia, in an area of high seismic activity atop multiple tectonic plates known as the “Pacific Ring of Fire”.

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Reporting by Stanley Widianto and Agustinus Beo Da Costa; Writing by Kate Lamb; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa and Janet Lawrence

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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