Tag Archives: Barron's Take

Elon Musk Might Sell Tesla Stock. Here’s the Real Reason for the Sale.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted about proposed taxes on unrealized gains, and possibly selling stock. His followers want him to sell, which might just be Musk’s best move.


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Tesla

‘s iconoclastic CEO Elon Musk made waves over the weekend when he asked his millions of


Twitter

followers if he should sell Tesla stock, creating a taxable event. It generated comments from the government and sparked additional debate over the taxation of the ultrawealthy.

Igniting a Twitter (ticker: TWTR) firestorm might have been Musk’s endgame. He might, however, just be making smart tax-planning decisions. But no, the Twitter poll isn’t a hidden way to avoid paying taxes on some of his stock options.

If Musk abides by the poll and chooses to sell long-held Tesla (


TSLA

) stock, then the gains on sale will be taxed as long-term capital gains, explains accounting expert Robert Willens. What’s more, selling in 2021 would allow Musk to avoid higher rates if those being proposed by the Biden Administration become law.

Right now, most long-term capital gains—which are gains from investments held for more than one year—are taxed at 15% up to about $500,000 in taxable income and taxed at 20% beyond that level of income. Some of the president’s tax proposals would tax capital gains for high earners as ordinary income. The top marginal tax rate on ordinary income in the U.S. today is about 37%.

“People have been looking at this …for a while,” explains Willens. “They are looking to protect the value of their life’s work.” Willens, who was a top-ranked accountant on Wall Street for years before forming his own firm in 2008, believes some increased M&A activity this year has been driven by the potential for higher tax rates in years to come.

Musk could save $3 billion to $4 billion in federal tax, depending on what changes the Biden Administration can implement.

It’s not certain where Musk would source the stock for a sale, though. Tesla didn’t return a request for comment. He could sell existing stock and/or obtain stock through vested options and sell those shares. In that latter case, the difference between the award price in the stock option and the stock price—or the gain from exercising and selling—would be taxed as ordinary income. That type of transaction isn’t subject to capital-gains accounting.

There is no taxable event for executives with stock options until they are exercised. “He cannot avoid …ordinary income …on exercise of the stock options even if he were to hold the stock purchased on exercise,” says Willens. “Whether he holds or disposes of the option stock is entirely irrelevant.” The gain on exercise is essentially management compensation and will be taxed like anyone’s regular paycheck.

Stock options are a little different for executives receiving restricted stock units, or RSUs. Those are taxable when they vest—or when the executive has earned them.

Musk’s compensation is mostly stock options. In fact, he has no base salary. In 2018, Tesla awarded Musk options to purchase 101,320,210 shares that vest in 12 separate tranches based on performance milestones. As of the date of the 2021 Tesla proxy statement, six of the 12 tranches have vested. That means Musk has about 50 million of the options from the 2018 award available for exercise. Those options require Musk to pay about $70 per share.

He also has about 23 million in vested stock options from an older 2012 award. Those have a strike price of about $6.

Tesla stock closed Monday at 1,162 a share, down 4.9% Monday. News that a boatload of Tesla stock might be hitting the open market—and diluting the company’s share count, if sourced from options exercises—sent shares down 4.9% to a close of $1,162. The


S&P 500

and


Dow Jones Industrial Average

rose 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.

At current prices, the implied gain in the vested options from Musk’s 2018 award is more than $100 billion. What’s more, Musk holds about 170 million Tesla shares worth roughly $200 billion.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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Peloton Stock Is Tumbling. A Disappointing Report Sinks Another Pandemic Play.

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Peloton stock is down double-digits in after-hours trading after the at-home fitness company reported a big loss and cut guidance.


Courtesy Peloton


Peloton Interactive

was the latest pandemic-play stock casualty this earnings season. Shares were diving in premarket trading Friday after the at-home fitness firm reported a wider-than-expected net loss for the September quarter, and cut its full fiscal-year outlook.

Peloton reported a fiscal-first-quarter net loss of $376 million, or $1.25 a share. Total revenue grew 6% year over year to $805.2 million. Wall Street’s consensus estimate called for a net loss of $1.10 a share on revenue of $808.7 million, according to FactSet.

The company, which sells bikes and treadmills that pair with $39.99 a month subscriptions, said average monthly workouts per connected fitness subscription dropped to 16.6 from 20.7 a year ago. Investors watch that metric for signs of engagement.

Peloton stock dropped 33.5% to $57.27 early Friday. The stock set a 52-week intraday high of $171.09 in January. The company joins


Roku

(ROKU) and


Chegg

(CHGG) as popular pandemic plays that are now disappointing investors with reports this week.

Peloton now expects the 2022 fiscal year to end in June with 3.35 million to 3.45 million connected fitness subscribers, down from a prior forecast of 3.63 million. Its outlook for fiscal-year revenue ranges from $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion, down from a prior forecast of $5.4 billion.

For the fiscal second quarter, which includes the all-important holiday season, the company expects to hit connected fitness subscribers of between 2.8 million to 2.85 million. It expects revenue in the range from $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion for the quarter, below Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $1.49 billion, according to FactSet. The company said that so far, the fiscal second quarter has been softer than expected.

“With the benefit of adequate inventories and order-to-delivery windows that are now back to pre-pandemic levels, we expect a healthy holiday selling season,” the company added in a prepared statement. “Our forecast assumes unit sales modestly ahead of last year’s Q2 levels, driven by growing consumer interest in the Connected Fitness category and a resumption of our marketing and promotional activity.”

Write to Connor Smith at connor.smith@barrons.com

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Tesla Stock Is Dropping. Here’s What’s Really Behind the Slide.

Tesla shares are dropping. Recalls and uncertainty could be responsible. A third reason, however, is most likely.


Joe Raedle/Getty Images

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Tesla

stock can’t go up forever, and finally turned lower on Tuesday. Reports of recalls and uncertainty about the company’s deal with Hertz are two potential reasons, but a third factor may be the real key.

Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock was down 1.6% in morning trading, following a slump of as much as 5% before the open. The


S&P 500

and


Dow Jones Industrial Average

were up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.

Tesla stock has been on a tear. It has risen eight of the past nine trading sessions, and has gained 70% over the past three months. Its shares have been buoyed by signs that the company really has won the EV race, signing a deal with Hertz (HTZ) for 100,000 electric vehicles. Companies such as


Ford

Motor (F) and


General Motors

(GM) have announced enormous spending plans to try to close the gap.

No surprise, then, that the stock would react badly to potentially negative headlines. First, Musk himself tweeted that Tesla had yet to sign a contract with


Hertz

(HTZZ). Then came the announcement that the company would be recalling 11,700 vehicles.

The Musk tweet, however, was intended as a positive. The Hertz deal is Tesla’s first large fleet sale. Fleet sales tend to be lower-margin. Fleet buyers look for volume discounts and don’t often buy all the high-end options individual consumers do.

Musk has assured investors, on


Twitter

(TWTR), a couple of times that Tesla is selling all the cars it can make and isn’t giving any discounts these days.

Hertz shares initially took a hit because of the tweet, starting off with a loss of about 6% in premarket trading. But nothing happens in a vacuum.

Hertz’s peer


Avis Budget

(CAR) reported better-than-expected results Monday evening, sending the stock up about 1% in premarket trading, despite year-to-date gains of about 360%. Rental-car demand and operating metrics are improving.

In late morning trading, it looked as if meme traders were squeezing short sellers, as they did with


GameStop

stock at the start of the year. Avis stock was up 162% to $450 a share, bringing Hertz is along for the ride with a gain of about 16%.

For Tesla stock, the recall might be a bigger deal than the status of the sale to Hertz. The cars are being recalled because of a software-communication error that can activate automatic emergency braking. The fix is an over-the-air software update. Tesla has faced more regulator scrutiny over driver-assistance features in recent months.

What’s more, Tesla recently introduced a “beta” version of its latest full-self-driving software to Tesla drivers who qualified for the upgrade. Tesla believes its software makes vehicles safer. Regulators, however, still need to adjust to cars being improved by software updates and how to handle changes made to software to fix bugs.

Any news, however, could have sparked a selloff in Tesla stock. The stock is extremely overbought, which is to say that it is rising quickly relative to its own history. When things get extreme, stocks can revert to the mean. Tesla’s relative strength reading is at 94. A reading of 50 is, essentially, normal and levels of above 70 generally have traders looking for a drop.

Coming into Tuesday, Tesla stock has outperformed the S&P 500 by about 77 percentage points over the past 100 days, as Datatrek Research pointed out in a Tuesday note. That’s a lot, but not unheard of for Tesla.

“Crazy as it sounds, the stock’s recent rally is pretty normal action for this name,” the research outfit said. With outperformance like that, investors don’t really need an excuse to take profits.

Tesla stock has a long way to go before it will look ripe for a hit.

Write to Ben Levisohn at ben.levisohn@barrons.com

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Elon Musk’s Feud With Biden Administration Escalates

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk


Win McNamee/Getty Images


Tesla

‘s battle with the Biden administration escalated after CEO Elon Musk called President Joe Biden a “puppet” for the United Auto Workers in a Sunday tweet.

Musk was replying to a tweet outlining electric-vehicle purchase tax credits proposed in the president’s infrastructure bill. The bill includes an extra $4,500 for EVs assembled by unionized labor.

Purchase tax credits lower the cost of an EV by giving a buyer a tax deduction. Right now, Tesla vehicles no longer quality for federal tax credits.

Tesla’s plant in Fremont, Calif., isn’t unionized, so the proposal could give EVs from other auto makers—including


Ford Motor

(F) and


General Motors

(GM)—a pricing advantage depending on where the vehicles are assembled.

Tesla (ticker: TSLA) and the White House weren’t immediately available for comment Sunday evening.

The problems between Tesla and the Biden administration began when the president didn’t invite Tesla, the largest U.S. EV producer, to the White House when he announced his EV goals in early August. Biden wants 50% of the cars sold in the U.S. to be all-electric by 2030. GM, Ford, and the UAW attended the ceremony.

Musk called the decision odd in a tweet. He tweeted in late September that Biden was “still sleeping” after the president didn’t call to congratulate SpaceX and its civilian astronaut mission, which raised money for St. Jude’s Children’s Research Hospital.

After that, still in September, at the Code technology conference in California, Musk suggested that the Biden administration was biased against Tesla, adding the administration “seems to be controlled by unions.”

Musk also has a problem with a Biden appointment to the National Highway Transport Safety Administration. Missy Cummings, a Duke University professor who will be a safety advisor to the NHTSA, has questioned Tesla’s autonomous driving software on several occasions in the recent past. She is concerned that Tesla’s self-driving features could be misused by drivers . Musk called Cummings “extremely biased” in a tweet.

Tesla and Cummings didn’t respond to requests for comment at the time of Musk’s Twitter comment.

All of this matters to investors only if it impacts Tesla’s bottom line. The $4,500 tax credit could matter, although the bill isn’t law yet. And the NHTSA hasn’t yet made recommendations on how Tesla implements and tests its autonomous-driving features. All auto makers are offering driver-assistance features that are designed to improve safety and convenience.

The spat hasn’t hurt Tesla stock yet. Tesla shares rose more than 40% in October, while the


S&P 500

rose 7%. Strong deliveries and earnings and new fleet business helped push Tesla’s market capitalization north of $1 trillion for the first time in October.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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GameStop Stock Fell So Much It Had to be Halted. That Didn’t Stop the Selloff.

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GameStop’s stock is up an impressive $1,068% so far this year.


Justin Sullivan/Getty Images


GameStop

stock dropped suddenly Monday morning, prompting a brief halt due to volatility. The stock fell wider than 15% to as low as $223.00, bounced back, and then fell even lower.

Shares of videogame retailer GameStop (ticker: GME) this month have surged back near their late January levels this month. At the close, GameStop stock was down 17% to $220.13.

The company said last week that

Chewy

(CHWY) co-founder
Ryan Cohen
and former Chewy executive
Alan Attal
were joined by Kurt Wolf, managing member and chief investment officer of activist investor Hestia Capital Management, on a new board committee aimed at transforming GameStop into a technology business.

Cohen kicked off GameStop’s run by building a roughly 13% stake in 2020 and urged the company to pivot more toward e-commerce offerings. He joined the company’s board with two associates in January, sending GameStop shares parabolic in the weeks that followed. Analysts pointed to speculative options activity and the closing of some aggressive bearish bets from hedge funds.

Last month, GameStop announced the planned departure of Chief Financial Officer
Jim Bell.
A person familiar with the matter told Barron’s at the time that the company thought it was the right time and was looking for a new executive with a technology background.

GameStop’s latest run began following a Feb. 18 Congressional hearing on trading of its stock and Robinhood. The hearing included an appearance by Keith Gill, the YouTube personality known as RoaringKitty, who has developed a following for his successful long position in GameStop stock dating back to 2019; Gill revealed in a Feb. 19 post that he doubled his GameStop holdings.

While some analysts are upbeat about the company’s turnaround prospects, the highest price target listed by FactSet is $33. That analyst, Telsey Advisory Group’s Joseph Feldman, pointed to valuation concerns, despite his “high fundamental expectations and projected multiyear benefits from the transformation.”

The company said it will report fiscal-fourth-quarter results next week. Like other so-called meme stocks favored by retail traders, such results present a risk to the company’s sky-high run-up. That said, trying to call a near-term top for GameStop has been a fool’s errand, especially for short-sellers facing unlimited downside.

Write to Connor Smith at connor.smith@barrons.com

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