Tag Archives: banking

Alan Greenspan says US recession is likely


New York
CNN
 — 

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes a US recession is the “most likely outcome” of the Fed’s aggressive rate hike regime meant to curb inflation. He joins a growing chorus of economists predicting imminent economic downturn.

His views are particularly important. Not only did Greenspan serve five terms as Fed chair under four different presidents between 1987 and 2006, but he was the last chair to successfully navigate a soft landing, in 1994. In the 12 months that followed February 1994 Greenspan nearly doubled interest rates to 6% and managed to keep the economy steady, avoiding recession.

Greenspan, now 96, said in a note this week that he doubts this current bout of hikes will result in a repeat performance.

The last two months of data showed that prices are beginning to decelerate – good news but not good enough, he said. “I don’t think it will warrant a Fed reversal that is substantial enough to avoid at least a mild recession,” said Greenspan, now a senior economic adviser to Advisors Capital Management, in commentary released on the company’s website Tuesday.

The Fed hiked interest rates seven times last year, increasing the rate that banks charge each other for overnight borrowing to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, the highest since 2007. Fed officials still expect to raise rates by another percentage point, according to projections released during their December monetary policy meeting.

Wage increases and, by extension, employment, “still need to soften further for a pullback in inflation to be anything more than transitory,” said Greenspan. “So we may have a brief period of calm on the inflation front, but I think it will be too little too late.” Unemployment rates remain near historic lows, holding at 3.7% in November. New employment data is set to be released Friday morning.

Greenspan doubts the Fed will loosen interest rates soon because “inflation could flare up again and we would be back at square one,” he said. “Furthermore, this could potentially damage the Federal Reserve’s credibility as a purveyor of stable prices, especially if the action were seen to be taken merely to protect the stock market rather than in response to truly unstable financial conditions.”

He does see some good news for investors on the horizon. Markets won’t be nearly as chaotic in 2023 as they were last year, he said. “I believe 2022 would be a tough year to top with respect to market volatility,” he remarked.

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FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried arrives in court to face charges


New York
CNN
 — 

Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced founder of bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, has arrived at a Manhattan federal court where he is set to appear to face charges that include cheating investors out of billions of dollars.

Authorities have accused Bankman-Fried of stealing customer funds from FTX to cover loans taken out by Alameda Research, FTX’s affiliated crypto hedge fund. They also say he used those funds to make investments in other companies and donate to campaigns of politicians from both parties to influence public policy.

In public statements following FTX’s collapse in November, Bankman-Fried has insisted that he didn’t commit fraud and was unaware that customer funds were being used improperly.

He is expected to plead not guilty Tuesday.

Two senior executives from Bankman-Fried’s crypto businesses — Gary Wang, the co-founder of FTX, and Caroline Ellison, who served as Alameda’s CEO — have pleaded guilty to multiple criminal charges and are cooperating with federal prosecutors.

Ellison apologized while entering her plea last month, telling the court that she “agreed with Mr. Bankman-Fried and others to not publicly disclose the true nature of the relationship between Alameda and FTX, including Alameda’s credit arrangement.”

As part of his release, Bankman-Fried is under house arrest at his parents’ home in Palot Alto, California. He is wearing a monitoring device and has surrendered his passport.

He could face up to 115 years in prison if convicted on all charges.

Last month, a US judge released him on a $250 million bond in his first appearance on American soil since his arrest in the Bahamas, where he lived and ran his businesses.

Bankman-Fried’s parents, both law professors at Stanford who co-signed his bond, have “become the target of intense media scrutiny, harassment, and threats,” defense lawyers wrote in a letter to the court, while asking to redact the names of two other co-signers, known as “sureties.”

“There is serious cause for concern that the two additional sureties would face similar intrusions on their privacy as well as threats and harassment if their names appear unredacted on their bonds or their identities are otherwise publicly disclosed,” the letter states.

Prosecutors allege that Bankman-Fried orchestrated “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history,” stealing billions of dollars from FTX customers to cover losses at its sister hedge fund, Alameda Research.

FTX and Alameda both filed for bankruptcy in December after investors rushed to pull their deposits from the exchange, sparking a liquidity crisis and triggering contagion across the crypto industry.

FTX’s new CEO, John Ray III, who made his name overseeing the liquidation of Enron in the early 2000s, said in a congressional hearing that customer funds deposited on the FTX site were commingled with funds at Alameda, which made a number of speculative, high-risk bets.

Ray described the situation at the two companies as “old-fashioned embezzlement” at the hands of a small group of “grossly inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals.”

— CNN’s Allison Morrow and Samantha Murphy Kelly contributed to this report.

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Unanswered questions about Trump’s tax returns


New York
CNN
 — 

After years of legal battles, pontificating and theorizing, former President Donald Trump’s tax returns from 2015 to 2020 are now part of the public record. Many critics and political opponents have theorized that Trump fought the public disclosure of his tax returns because they potentially provided evidence of illegal or politically damaging behavior.

It’s not immediately clear that they do either.

However, Trump’s tax returns raise numerous questions about the former president’s finances, his business activities, foreign ties and his charitable donations, among other issues.

Trump broke with decades of tradition in becoming the first elected president since Nixon to refuse to disclose his tax returns to the public When Democratic lawmakers demanded them, Trump fought for years to keep them private, taking the battle to the Supreme Court – a legal fight he ultimately lost.

He frequently claimed during his 2016 presidential candidacy that he couldn’t release his taxes because they were being audited, a claim that was debunked last week when the House Ways and Means Committee disclosed that Trump’s 2015 and 2016 taxes weren’t audited until 2019.

For now, the thousands of pages of documents offer only more questions about what Trump’s finances, and may offer potential avenues for new investigations.

Trump reported having foreign bank accounts, including a bank account in China between 2015 and 2017, his tax returns show.

The tax returns do not show what the bank account was used for or how much money passed through it or to whom. The New York Times first reported about Trump’s Chinese account in 2020, and Trump Organization lawyer Alan Garten told the Times that the account was used to pay taxes on the Trump International Hotels Management’s business push in the country.

Trump did not report the Chinese bank account in personal financial disclosures when he was president, likely because it was listed under his businesses. Yet he may have still been required to report accounts to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).

Trump’s companies and business interests span the globe. On his tax return, Trump listed business income, taxes, expenses or other notable financial items from or in Azerbaijan, Panama, Canada, India, Qatar, South Korea, the United Kingdom, China, the Dominican Republic, United Arab Emirates, the Philippines, Grenada, US territory Puerto Rico, Georgia, Israel, Brazil, St. Maarten, Mexico, Indonesia, Ireland, Turkey and St. Vincent.

But the tax returns don’t explain what business ties he had in those countries and with whom he might have been working while he was president.

Unlike previous presidents, Trump declined to divest his business interests while he was in office. Critics said his many foreign holdings compromised his ability to act independently as a politician.

During his presidency, Trump pledged he would donate the entirety of his $400,000 salary to charity each year. He frequently boasted about donating parts of his quarterly paycheck to various government agencies.

If he donated his 2020 salary, he didn’t claim it on his taxes. Among the six years of tax returns the House Ways and Means Committee released, 2020 was the sole year in which Trump listed no donations to charity.

That doesn’t mean his salary wasn’t donated, but it’s unclear if he made good on his promise in 2020.

In each year of Trump’s presidency, Trump claimed that he had loaned three of his adult children – Ivanka, Donald Jr. and Eric – undisclosed sums of money on which he collected interest.

The tax returns don’t say how much he lent them or why he gave them loans in the first place.

Between 2017 and 2020, Trump claimed he received exactly $18,000 in interest on a loan he gave his daughter Ivanka Trump and $8,715 in interest from his son Donald Trump, Jr.. In 2017 to 2019, Trump said he received exactly $24,000 from his son Eric Trump, and Eric paid him $19,605 in interest in 2020.

The bipartisan Joint Committee on Taxation said the loans and the amounts of claimed interest could indicate Trump was disguising gifts to his children. If the interest Trump claims to have charged his children was not at market rate, for example, it could be considered a gift for tax purposes, requiring him to pay a higher tax rate on the money.

Trump entered the US presidency with a vast web of business holdings, including hundreds of limited liability companies, corporations and partnerships with operations both domestically and overseas.

The massiveness and intricacy of his business operations – including companies nested within each other like Matryoshka dolls – brought a level of complexity not seen before in the US presidency and spurred concern about potential conflicts of interest, especially with foreign entities.

Friday’s public release of Trump’s 2015 to 2020 personal and business tax filings may shed some additional light as to how those operations evolved during and shortly after his time in office. But they don’t spell out where money was going and to whom.

Since 1977, the Internal Revenue Service has had a policy of auditing every president’s personal tax returns while they are in office. But the IRS didn’t do any examination of Trump’s tax returns until the Ways and Means Committee requested an audit in April of 2019.

When the committee asked Treasury Department representatives about the apparent lapse, they declined to provide information about the actual operations of the mandatory audit program, according to the committee’s report.

It remains unclear whether Trump received special treatment or, as the committee noted, the IRS was hamstrung by an acute lack of resources.

The lack of an audit looks especially suspect after representatives for Trump’s predecessor and successor said they had been subjected to annual audits by the IRS. A Biden White House spokesman told the AP that the IRS audited Biden in both 2020 and 2021. Representatives for former President Barack Obama told the New York Times that the IRS audited him each year he was in office.

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Bahamas Regulator Says It Seized $3.5 Billion in FTX Crypto Assets

Bahamas securities regulators said they seized digital assets valued at $3.5 billion from FTX’s local operation in mid-November as the cryptocurrency exchange spiraled toward collapse, a figure that FTX’s U.S. managers cast doubt on Friday.

Christina Rolle, executive director of the Securities Commission of the Bahamas, said in an affidavit made public Thursday that the commission sought control of the crypto assets held by FTX Digital Markets Ltd. last month after FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried told local authorities under oath about a hacking attempt. Her affidavit, filed with the Supreme Court of the Bahamas, also confirmed that the Securities Commission relied on Mr. Bankman-Fried and another FTX co-founder, Gary Wang, to make the transfers happen.

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Sam Bankman-Fried Likely to Plead Not Guilty to Fraud Charges

FTX founder

Sam Bankman-Fried

is likely to plead not guilty to fraud and other charges at his arraignment next week, according to people familiar with the matter.

The U.S. attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York earlier this month charged Mr. Bankman-Fried with engaging in criminal conduct that contributed to the cryptocurrency exchange’s collapse, alleging that he oversaw one of the biggest financial frauds in American history. Mr. Bankman-Fried is likely to appear in person in New York to enter his plea on Jan. 3, one of the people said.

Before his arrest, Mr. Bankman-Fried blamed the loss of customer funds on sloppy record-keeping and a bank-account issue that allowed Alameda Research, an affiliated trading firm, to cover large losses with money destined for FTX. His not guilty plea was widely expected.

The collapse of FTX has set off the largest crypto-related bankruptcy ever, and court filings are already shedding light on what went wrong and how complicated things could get. Here are three things to know about the company’s bankruptcy process. Photo: Lam Yik/Bloomberg News

Mr. Bankman-Fried stands at odds with his associates—

Caroline Ellison,

the former chief executive of Alameda Research, and

Gary Wang,

FTX’s former chief technology officer—who both pleaded guilty to criminal offenses similar to those Mr. Bankman-Fried was charged with. Both are cooperating with federal investigators.

The collapse of FTX and its sister trading firm Alameda have rattled the nascent world of crypto. Prosecutors allege that Mr. Bankman-Fried took billions of dollars of FTX.com customer money to pay the expenses and debts of his trading firm Alameda Research. Both companies filed for bankruptcy last month. Individual traders who entrusted FTX with their crypto are likely facing lengthy bankruptcy proceedings before they have a chance at seeing any of their funds back.

Mr. Bankman-Fried was released on a $250 million bond last week and has been ordered to stay in his parent’s Palo Alto, Calif., home after his appearance in a New York federal court following his extradition from the Bahamas.

Prosecutors say that from 2019 through November, Mr. Bankman-Fried conspired with unnamed individuals to defraud customers and lenders. He provided false and misleading information to lenders on the financial condition of Alameda, according to the indictment by the U.S. attorney’s office.

Mr. Bankman-Fried is also accused of defrauding the Federal Election Commission starting in 2020 by conspiring with others to make illegal contributions to candidates and political committees in the names of other people.

He and his associates contributed more than $70 million to election campaigns in recent years, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. He personally made $40 million in donations ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

Mr. Bankman-Fried also faces allegations from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The SEC alleged in a civil lawsuit that Mr. Bankman-Fried diverted customer funds from the start of FTX to support Alameda and to make venture investments, real-estate purchases and political donations. The CFTC filed a lawsuit linking his allegedly fraudulent conduct at Alameda and FTX to markets that the CFTC regulates.

On Friday afternoon, Mr. Bankman-Fried returned to Twitter for the first time since Dec. 12 to defend himself against rumors that he has been moving funds out of several crypto wallet addresses associated with Alameda.

Cryptocurrency prices have cratered this year amid rising central bank rates and the collapses of a once-prominent hedge fund and crypto lenders, with bitcoin and ether plunging 64% and 67%, respectively, according to CoinDesk data. The total market cap of all digital tokens fell to $795 billion, compared with $2.2 trillion at the start of year, per CoinMarketCap data.

Write to Caitlin Ostroff at caitlin.ostroff@wsj.com and Vicky Ge Huang at vicky.huang@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8



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Tesla is not alone: 18 (and a half) other big stocks are headed for their worst year on record

In the worst year for stocks since the Great Recession, several big names are headed for their worst year on record with just one trading day left in 2022.

The S&P 500 index
SPX,
+1.75%
and Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.05%
are both headed for their worst year since 2008, with declines of 20.6% and 9.5% respectively through Thursday. But at least 19 big-name stocks — and half of another — are headed for a more ignominious title for 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data: Worst year ever.

Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
+8.08%
is having the worst year among the group of S&P 1500 constituents with a market capitalization of $30 billion or higher headed for record annual percentage declines. Tesla shares have declined 65.4% so far this year, which would be easily the worst year on record for the popular stock, which has only had one previous negative year since going public in 2010, an 11% decline in 2016.

Tesla may not be the worst decliner on the list by the time 2023 arrives, however, as another Silicon Valley company is right on its heels. Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
+4.01%,
the parent company of Facebook, has fallen 64.2% so far this year, as Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has stuck to spending billions to develop the “metaverse” even as the online-advertising industry that provides the bulk of his revenue has stagnated. It would also only be the second year in Facebook’s history that the stock has declined, after a 25.7% drop in 2018, though shares did end Facebook’s IPO year of 2012 30% lower than the original IPO price.

Only one other stock could contend with Tesla and Meta’s record declines this year, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has some familiarity with that company as well. PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL,
+4.46%,
where Musk first found fame during the dot-com boom, has declined 63.2% so far this year as executives have refocused the company on attracting and retaining high-value users instead of trying to get as many users as possible on the payments platform. It would be the second consecutive down year for PayPal, which had not experienced that before 2021 since spinning off from eBay Inc.
EBAY,
+4.76%
in 2015.

None of the other companies headed for their worst year yet stand to lose more than half their value this year, though Charter Communications Inc.
CHTR,
+1.99%
is close. The telecommunications company’s stock has declined 48.2% so far, as investors worry about plans to spend big in 2023 in an attempt to turn around declining internet-subscriber numbers.

In addition to the list below, Alphabet Inc.’s class C shares
GOOG,
+2.88%
are having their worst year on record with a 38.4% decline. MarketWatch is not including that on the list, however, as Alphabet’s class A shares
GOOGL,
+2.82%
fell 55.5% in 2008; the separate class of nonvoting shares was created in 2012 to allow the company — then still called Google — to continue issuing shares to employees without diluting the control of co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page.

Apart from that portion of Alphabet’s shares, here are the 19 large stocks headed for their worst year ever, based on Thursday’s closing prices.

Company % decline in 2022
Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
+8.08%
65.4%
Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
+4.01%
64.2%
PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL,
+4.46%
62.6%
Charter Communications Inc. 48.0%
Edwards Lifesciences Corp.
EW,
+2.87%
41.9%
ServiceNow Inc.
NOW,
+3.67%
39.9%
Zoetis Inc.
ZTS,
+3.00%
39.3%
Fidelity National Information Services Inc.
FIS,
+2.03%
37.8%
Accenture PLC
ACN,
+2.00%
35.3%
Fortinet Inc.
FTNT,
+2.82%
31.5%
Estee Lauder Cos. Inc.
EL,
+1.52%
32.5%
Moderna Inc.
MRNA,
+1.34%
29.6%
Iqvia Holdings Inc.
IQV,
+2.94%
26.3%
Carrier Global Corp.
CARR,
+2.17%
22.8%
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
HLT,
+1.63%
19.2%
Broadcom Inc.
AVGO,
+2.37%
16.2%
Arista Networks Inc.
ANET,
+2.27%
15.2%
Dow Inc.
DOW,
+1.32%
10.7%
Otis Worldwide Corp.
OTIS,
+2.16%
9.2%

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Tesla shares are down 70% for the year


New York
CNN
 — 

Tesla’s stock is finishing out its tumultuous year with yet more turbulence: It’s up almost 6% Thursday, but still down more than 10% since last week. And a new cut to its price target from Morgan Stanley isn’t helping.

Year-to-date, the stock is down about 70%. Morgan Stanley analysts on Thursday said that the company’s sliding stock price represents a buying opportunity, but they cut its price target from $330 per share to $250. Tesla shares are trading at $122, with the stock up about 8% Thursday.

Morgan Stanley still believes the company is somewhat undervalued as a result of the big recent sell-offs, citing its head start over the electric car competition, and potential tax advantages as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act passed earlier this year.

The losses, however, have further put a dent in the fortunes of one of the world’s richest people. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, CEO Elon Musk is now worth $132 billion — less than half what he was worth at the beginning of the year. He lost the world’s richest person title two weeks ago to Bernard Arnault, the chairman of French luxury goods giant LVMH

(LVMHF).

A popular misconception has emerged about Elon Musk and Tesla: The megabillionaire’s love affair with Twitter is the main reason Tesla shares have lost so much value this year.

Even as Musk signals he may give up his CEO title at Twitter, investors became concerned that the outlook for Tesla’s sales and profit is taking a turn for the worse. A sign of the weakening demand: Tesla has announced a rare sale. The company offered two rebates for buyers who take delivery of a vehicle before the end of the year, initially offering a $3,750 discount earlier this month. Tesla then doubled that rebate to $7,500 last Thursday.

“Tesla clearly is starting to see demand cracks in China and in the US at a time that EV competition is increasing across the board,” said Dan Ives, tech analyst with Wedbush Securities and a Tesla bull who cut his price target for the stock last Friday from $250 to $175. “The price cuts that Tesla enacted was the straw that broke the camel’s back on the stock.”

Another reason Tesla’s stock is sinking: The US economy could tip into recession next year, hurting car sales. Musk said on a Twitter Spaces call two weeks ago that he foresees the economy will be in a “serious recession” in 2023.

“I think there is going to be some macro drama that’s higher than people currently think,” he said, according to Reuters, adding that homes and cars will get “disproportionately impacted” by economic conditions.

Part of the problem with Tesla’s stock price is that critics question whether it was ever worth the trillion-dollar valuation it had at the start of the year. At its peak, Tesla was worth more than the 12 largest automakers on the planet combined, despite having a fraction of the sales of any of them. Today it is worth $399 billion.

“It got ahead of itself in the near-term,” said Gene Munster of Loup Ventures, another Tesla fan. “I still believe this can be a much bigger company. I think it will see those kinds of numbers again. But it could take a long, long time to get there.”

Tesla’s growth prospects – a target of 50% sales growth annually, helped drive that valuation. It conceded in October that it will miss that sales target for this year.

The stock’s climb to dizzying heights – rising 743% in 2020 alone – was driven by Musk’s reputation as a genius who would disrupt the massive global auto industry.

“Tesla was viewed as a disruptive technology company, not as an automaker, and a large part of that premium is related to Musk,” said Ives.

Critics of Tesla said much of its sky-high valuation was based on promises that Musk made about future products, many of which came years after they were originally promised.

A prime example is the Cybertruck, the Tesla pickup truck, first unveiled three years ago with promises that production would start in 2021.

Now production is slated to start next year, with a ramp-up in production in 2024, putting it years behind other electric pickup offerings from Ford and upstart EV maker Rivian, both of which have electric pickups available for purchase today. It could also trail planned electric pickup offerings from General Motors.

“Elon Musk has a pathological problem with the truth,” said Gordon Johnson, one of the largest critics of Tesla among analysts. “When people say he’s a genius and innovator, it’s based on all his promises he never lives up to.”

Johnson said Tesla shares will have a much steeper fall ahead, once it starts being priced like other automakers rather than on its promises. He said that for Tesla to hit its growth targets it needs to be building new plants almost every year, but that new factories in Germany and Texas that opened in spring are still not operating at full capacity. And he said that its plant in China has had to scale back production due to weak sales in the market in the face of the Covid restrictions.

“Demand in the US has collapsed,” he said. “Two months ago, your wait time was two or three months. Now you can get one immediately. They’re going to build more cars than they sell for a third straight quarter. It’s the definition of excess capacity.”

Tesla is still by far the largest EV maker worldwide, although that title is being challenged in some key markets, by Volkswagen in Europe and by BYD in China. And more competition is coming from established automakers such as Ford and GM.

That’s not to say Twitter has played no role in Tesla’s stock price demise this year: Tesla shares have lost over 65% of their value since Musk’s interest in Twitter was first disclosed in April, with a nearly 50% decline since he closed on the deal in late October.

Investors have been disappointed that Musk appears to be paying for so much of his $44 billion purchase of Twitter by selling Tesla stock. Musk, Tesla’s largest shareholder, has sold $23 billion worth of Tesla shares since his interest in Twitter became public in April.

On a Twitter Spaces call last week call, Musk promised he was done selling shares of Tesla

(TSLA) stock until at least 2024, if not beyond. But he hasn’t lived up to a previous promise in April that he was done selling Tesla

(TSLA) shares, selling $14.4 billion of that stock since that time.

“It’s been a Pinocchio situation for Musk saying he is done selling stock. Investors want to see him walk the walk and not just talk the talk,” said Ives.

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Business partners turn on Sam Bankman-Fried


New York
CNN
 — 

The stunning collapse of one of crypto’s most prominent firms has quickly morphed into a legal battle pitting former executives and ex-romantic partners against one another.

Last week, as FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was being extradited to the United States from the Bahamas, two of his former business partners pleaded guilty to multiple charges of fraud and conspiracy.

Caroline Ellison, the 28-year-old former CEO of the crypto hedge fund Alameda, apologized before a federal judge in New York, saying that she and her former associates knowingly stole billions of dollars from customers of Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange and sought to cover it up, according to court transcripts.

“I am truly sorry for what I did,” Ellison told the court. “I knew that it was wrong.”

Ellison told the court that Alameda had a virtually unlimited borrowing facility in FTX, and that she knew the exchange would need to use customer funds to finance loans to the hedge fund. She also agreed to keep the two firms’ unusually close relationship hidden from investors and customers.

From July through October, she told the court, Ellison agreed with Bankman-Fried and others to provide “materially misleading financial statements to Alameda’s lenders,” and prepared balance sheets that concealed the extent of Alameda’s borrowing.

Ellison has been charged with seven criminal counts, including conspiracy to commit wire fraud and money laundering. She and Bankman-Fried were close business associates who briefly dated.

Another associate, Gary Wang, FTX’s former chief technology officer, pleaded guilty to four counts of similar charges.

Wang told the court that part of his role at FTX included making changes to the exchange’s code that would grant Alameda “special privileges” on FTX.

“I knew what I was doing was wrong,” he said.

Both Ellison and Wang are cooperating with federal prosecutors, making them potentially damning witnesses against Bankman-Fried, who has repeatedly denied intentionally defrauding customers and investors.

Bankman-Fried, 30, appeared Thursday in a US courtroom in New York, where a federal judge released him on a $250 million bond. He is required to surrender his passport and remain under house arrest at his parents’ home in Palo Alto, California.

Although $250 million is an extraordinary sum, Bankman-Fried won’t have to pay it unless he violates the terms of his bail agreement or fails to show up to court. The atypical bail plan was agreed to as part of his commitment to waive his extradition fight.

Following his court appearance, Bankman-Fried was spotted in a business class lounge at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. Crypto reporter Tiffany Fong also tweeted a photo showing Bankman-Fried on an American Airlines flight.

Bankman-Fried’s legal team confirmed to CNN Business that he had arrived in Palo Alto and was home with his parents. His lawyer declined to comment on the guilty pleas by Ellison and Wang.

The federal judge Thursday said Bankman-Fried would be arraigned on eight criminal counts including fraud and conspiracy at an unspecified future date.

Prosecutors allege that Bankman-Fried orchestrated “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history,” stealing billions of dollars from FTX customers to cover losses at Alameda and to enrich himself. If convicted, he could face life in prison.

Bankman-Fried, prior to his arrest in the Bahamas earlier this month, had sought to portray himself as a hapless entrepreneur who got out over his skis. He repeatedly apologized to customers and to FTX staff, saying he “f—ed up,” while denying that he knowingly defrauded anyone.

— CNN’s Lauren del Valle and Kara Scannell contributed reporting.



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Elon Musk’s Twitter obsession isn’t the core reason for Tesla stock’s plunge


New York
CNN
 — 

A popular misconception has emerged about Elon Musk and Tesla: The megabillionaire’s love affair with Twitter is the main reason Tesla shares have lost so much value this year. But Tesla’s steep stock selloff this week proved that the problems at Musk’s car company go well beyond Twitter.

Even as Musk signals he may give up his CEO title at Twitter, investors became concerned that the outlook for Tesla’s sales and profit is taking a turn for the worse. A sign of the weakening demand: Tesla has announced a rare sale. The company offered two rebates for buyers who take delivery of a vehicle before the end of the year, initially offering a $3,750 discount earlier this month. Tesla then doubled that rebate to $7,500 Thursday.

“Tesla clearly is starting to see demand cracks in China and in the US at a time that EV competition is increasing across the board,” said Dan Ives, tech analyst with Wedbush Securities and a Tesla bull who cut his price target for the stock Friday from $250 to $175. “The price cuts that Tesla enacted was the straw that broke the camel’s back on the stock.”

Another reason Tesla’s stock is sinking: The US economy could tip into recession next year, hurting car sales. Musk said on an Twitter Spaces call Thursday he foresees the economy will be in a “serious recession” in 2023.

“I think there is going to be some macro drama that’s higher than people currently think,” he said, according to Reuters, adding that homes and cars will get “disproportionately impacted” by economic conditions.

Part of the problem with Tesla’s stock price is that critics question whether it was ever worth the trillion-dollar valuation it had at the start of the year. At its peak, Tesla was worth more than the 12 largest automakers on the planet combined, despite having a fraction of the sales of any of them. Today it is worth $399 billion.

“It got ahead of itself in the near-term,” said Gene Munster of Loup Ventures, another Tesla fan. “I still believe this can be a much bigger company. I think it will see those kinds of numbers again. But it could take a long, long time to get there.”

Tesla’s growth prospects – a target of 50% sales growth annually, helped drive that valuation. It conceded in October that it will miss that sales target for this year.

The stock’s climb to dizzying heights – rising 743% in 2020 alone – was driven by Musk’s reputation as a genius who would disrupt the massive global auto industry.

“Tesla was viewed as a disruptive technology company, not as an automaker, and a large part of that premium is related to Musk,” said Ives.

Critics of Tesla said much of its sky-high valuation was based on promises that Musk made about future products, many of which came years after they were originally promised.

A prime example is the Cybertruck, the Tesla pickup truck, first unveiled three years ago with promises that production would start in 2021. Now it is slated to start production next year, with a ramp-up in production in 2024, putting it years behind other electric pickup offerings from Ford and upstart EV maker Rivian, both of which have electric pickups available for purchase today. It could also trail planned electric pickup offerings from General Motors.

“Elon Musk has a pathological problem with the truth,” said Gordon Johnson, one of the largest critics of Tesla among analysts. “When people say he’s a genius and innovator, it’s based on all his promises he never lives up to.”

Johnson said Tesla shares will have a much steeper fall ahead, once it starts being priced like other automakers rather than on its promises. He said that for Tesla to hit its growth targets it needs to be building new plants almost every year, but that new factories in Germany and Texas that opened in spring are still not operating at full capacity. And he said that its plant in China has had to scale back production due to weak sales in the market in the face of the Covid restrictions.

“Demand in the US has collapsed,” he said. “Two months ago, your wait time was two or three months. Now you can get one immediately. They’re going to build more cars than they sell for a third straight quarter. It’s the definition of excess capacity.”

Tesla is still by far the largest EV maker worldwide, although that title is being challenged in some key markets, by Volkswagen in Europe and by BYD in China. And more competition is coming from established automakers such as Ford and GM.

That’s not to say Twitter has played no role in Tesla’s stock price demise this year: Tesla shares have lost 66% of their value since Musk’s interest in Twitter was first disclosed in April, with a 45% decline since he closed on the deal in late October.

Investors have been disappointed that Musk appears to be paying for so much of his $44 billion purchase of Twitter by selling Tesla stock. Musk, Tesla’s largest shareholder, has sold $23 billion worth of Tesla shares since his interest in Twitter became public in April.

On Thursday’s Twitter Spaces call, Musk promised he was done selling shares of Tesla stock until at least 2024, if not beyond. But he hasn’t lived up to a previous promise in April that he was done selling Tesla shares, selling $14.4 billion of that stock since that time.

“It’s been a Pinocchio situation for Musk saying he is done selling stock. Investors want to see him walk the walk and not just talk the talk,” said Ives.

Another Twitter factor: Musk named himself CEO of Twitter, the third major company he leads, along with Tesla and SpaceX. So, many people assumed that Musk’s loss of focus on Tesla has spooked its former fans on Wall Street.

But this week began with Musk running a poll – on Twitter of course – asking if he should give up the CEO title at his social media plaything. He promised he would comply with the result, and 57.5% of those who voted said they want him gone.

That departure may take a while – Musk tweeted he will resign “as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job!” And the same tweet he cautioned that even if he gives up the CEO title at Twitter, he’s not walking away totally, saying that he plans to “just run the software & servers teams” after finding a new “fool” to be CEO.

The poll results late Sunday were enough to lift Tesla shares in early trading Monday, but the shares ended the day slightly lower, and have lost significantly more ground every day since. Tesla shares fell 9% Thursday, and it ended the week down 18% after another 2% drop on Friday.

And then there’s the question of how much damage the debacle at Twitter has done to the Tesla brand. Musk has fired thousands of employees, banned journalists while allowing Donald Trump and other previously banned accounts back online, called for the prosecution of Dr. Anthony Fauci, embraced conspiracy theories and made anti-trans statements in his short tenure as CEO.

It may have endeared him to some but angered other potential buyers, including liberals who might be willing to pay a premium for a more environmentally friendly vehicle.

“I think it was measurable damage,” said Munster, who believes the publicity over his time at Twitter cost Tesla 5% of its sales.



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