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Warren Buffett Says Markets Have Become a ‘Gambling Parlor’

OMAHA, Neb.—As recently as February,

Warren Buffett

lamented he wasn’t finding much out there that was worth buying. 

That is no longer the case.

After a yearslong deal drought, Mr. Buffett’s

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

BRK.B -2.55%

is opening up the spending spigot again. It forged an $11.6 billion deal to buy insurer

Alleghany Corp.

Y -0.62%

, poised to be Berkshire’s biggest acquisition in six years. It bought millions of shares of

HP Inc.

HPQ -2.53%

and

Occidental Petroleum Corp.

OXY -3.40%

And it dramatically ramped up its stake in

Chevron Corp.

CVX -3.16%

, making the energy company one of Berkshire’s top four stock investments.

The big question: Why?

“It’s a gambling parlor,” Mr. Buffett said Saturday of the markets over the past few years. He added that he blamed the financial industry for motivating risky behavior among investors. While he finds speculative bets “obscene,” the pickup in volatility across the markets has had one good effect, he said: It has allowed Berkshire to find undervalued businesses to invest in again following a period of relative quiet. 

“We depend on mispriced businesses through a mechanism where we’re not responsible for the mispricing,” Mr. Buffett said.

Mr. Buffett, 91 years old, shared his thoughts on the state of the markets, Berkshire’s insurance business and recent investments at the company’s annual shareholder meeting in downtown Omaha.

Berkshire also held votes on shareholder proposals, with investors ultimately striking down measures that asked Berkshire to make its board chairman independent and called for the company to disclose climate risk across its businesses. 

Shareholders eager to score prime seats lined up for hours before the doors opened in the arena where Mr. Buffett; right-hand-man

Charlie Munger,

98; and Vice Chairmen

Greg Abel,

59, and

Ajit Jain,

70, took the stage. As Mr. Buffett entered, a lone audience member took the opportunity to send a message. “We love you,” the person shouted. 

Mr. Buffett appeared equally enthused to see the thousands of shareholders sitting before him. 

It was a lot better being able to be with everyone in person, he said.

Up until recently, Berkshire had largely been sitting on its cash pile. Its business thrived; a recovering economy and roaring stock market helped push net earnings to a record in 2021. But it didn’t announce any major deals, something that led many analysts and investors to wonder about its next moves. Berkshire ended the year with a near record amount of cash on hand. (After Berkshire’s buying spree, the size of the company’s war chest shrank to $106.26 billion at the end of the first quarter, from $146.72 billion three months earlier.)

Mr. Buffett’s feeling that there were no appealing investment opportunities for Berkshire quickly gave way to excitement in late February, he said Saturday, when he got a copy of Alleghany Chief Executive

Joseph Brandon’s

annual report.

The report piqued his interest. He decided to follow up with Mr. Brandon, flying to New York City to talk about a potential deal over dinner. 

Warren Buffett headed in to speak to shareholders at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting in Omaha, Neb., on Saturday.



Photo:

SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS

If the chief executive hadn’t reached out, “it wouldn’t have occurred to me to write to him and say, ‘Let’s get together,’” Mr. Buffett said.

Berkshire’s decision to build up a 14% stake in Occidental also came about with a report. Mr. Buffett said he had read an analyst note on the company, whose stock is still trading below its 2011 high, and decided the casino-like market conditions made it a good time to buy the stock.

Over the course of just two weeks, Berkshire scooped up millions of shares of the company. 

“I don’t think we ever had anything quite like we have now in terms of the volumes of pure gambling activity going on daily,” Mr. Munger said. “It’s not pretty.” 

But the amount of speculation in the markets has given Berkshire a chance to spot undervalued businesses, Mr. Munger said, allowing the company to put its $106 billion cash reserve to work.

“I think we’ve made more because of the crazy gambling,” Mr. Munger said.

Another business that caught Berkshire’s eye? Chevron. Berkshire’s stake in the company was worth $25.9 billion as of March 31, up from $4.5 billion at the end of 2021, according to the company’s filing. That makes Chevron one of Berkshire’s four biggest stockholdings, alongside

Apple,

American Express Co. and Bank of America Corp.

Neither Mr. Buffett nor Mr. Munger specifically addressed Berkshire’s decision to increase its Chevron stake.

But the two men offered a defense of the oil industry. It is a good thing for the U.S. to be producing more of its own oil, Mr. Buffett said. Mr. Munger went further, saying he could hardly think of a more useful industry. 

At the meeting, Mr. Buffett also revealed that Berkshire has increased its stake in

Activision Blizzard Inc.

The company now holds a 9.5% position in Activision, a merger-arbitrage bet from which Berkshire stands to profit if

Microsoft Corp.’s

proposal to acquire the videogame maker goes through.

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At the end of the day, Berkshire doesn’t try to make its investments based on what it believes the stock market will do when it opens each Monday, Mr. Buffett said.

“I can’t predict what [a] stock will do…We don’t know what the economy will do,” he said.

What Berkshire focuses on is doing what it can to keep generating returns for its shareholders, Mr. Buffett said. Berkshire produced 20% compounded annualized gains between 1965 and 2020, compared with the S&P 500, which returned 10% including dividends over the same period.

“The idea of losing permanently other people’s money…that’s just a future I don’t want to have,” Mr. Buffett said.

Write to Akane Otani at akane.otani@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Why is the stock market falling? Dow drops nearly 900 points as investors weigh Fed’s policy path, earnings

U.S. stocks fell sharply Friday, as investors continued to weigh hawkish comments on interest rates by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell a day earlier, as well as a fresh batch of corporate earnings that largely disappointed.

How are stocks trading?
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -2.18%
    was down 879 points, or 2.5%, at 33,914.
  • The S&P 500
    SPX,
    -2.18%
    fell 107 points, or 2.4%, to 4,286, and was on track for a third straight weekly fall.
  • The Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -2.03%
    shed 298 points, or 2.3%, to trade at 12,875.

On Thursday, the Dow shed 368.03 points, or 1.1%, reversing a gain of as much as 331.43 points in intraday trading. The more-than 700-point intraday swing was its biggest since March 8, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.1%.

What’s driving the market?

Stock-market weakness picked up Friday where Thursday’s selloff left off, when equities tumbled into the afternoon after Powell added his support for moving faster on raising interest rates to cool inflation, measures that would include a possible 50 basis point interest rate hike in May.

“It would seem investors have been too complacent about the upcoming [Fed] meeting, which will need to change,” said Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital, in a note.

The Cboe Volatility Index
VIX,
+20.55%,
an options-based measure of expected volatility over the next 30 days, had been too low heading into the May 3-4 Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, meeting, Kramer said. It rose Thursday and was up another 19.5% at 27.1- on Friday, moving above its long-term average just below 20.

Powell’s remarks appeared to make a half percentage point rate hike the base case, with the central bank also likely to announce the beginning of the unwinding of its balance sheet, Kramer said.

Meanwhile, traders of fed funds futures have priced in a 94% chance that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 75 basis point rate hike in June, up from 70% on Thursday and 28% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield 
TMUBMUSD10Y,
2.895%,
meanwhile, pulled back slightly to around 2.89% after climbing about 8.1 basis points to 2.917% on Thursday, the highest since Dec. 4, 2018.

Read: How to invest as inflation, higher interest rates and war roil markets

And some are warning that the Nasdaq is looking particularly vulnerable. The week has delivered some big earnings news for the technology sector, with investors cheering Thursday’s results from Tesla
TSLA,
-0.12%,
on the heels of deeply disappointing Netflix
NFLX,
-0.91%
results.

The Fed’s hawkish shift and the relentless rise in Treasury yields may be sapping the previous appeal of equities, which had previously been seen as the only viable avenue for many return-seeking investors.

“Investors appear to be moving away from the TINA (There is no Alternative) narrative as of late when it comes to equities,” said Brian Price, head of investment management at Commonwealth Financial Network, in a note. “This is the second straight week of significant outflows from equity mutual funds and days like today are unlikely to change the sentiment moving forward. The one positive takeaway may be that sentiment has become too bearish and we could see a countertrend rally at some point in the coming weeks.”

In One Chart: Investors just pulled a massive $17.5 billion out of global equities. They’re just getting started, says Bank of America.

All 11 major S&P 500 sectors fell Friday, with healthcare stocks dropping the most after a downbeat profit forecast from HCA Healthcare Inc.
HCA,
-20.47%
sent its shares tumbling. Other hospital operators, including Tenet Healthcare Corp.
THC,
-13.49%,
Community Health Systems Inc.
CYH,
-17.36%
and Universal Health Services
UHS,
-12.70%
also fell between 10.4% and 13.2%.

However, of the 99 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings for the first quarter, 77.8% of them have beat market expectations. Typically, 66% of companies beat estimates, according to Refinitiv data.

Next week will mark another big week for earnings, with 558 companies reporting, Saxo noted. “It is the big test of companies’ ability to pass on costs to their customers,” they said.

Investors may also be skittish ahead of the final round of France’s presidential election on Sunday. An upset victory by far-right candidate Marine Le Pen over incumbent Francois Macron would likely spark market volatility, analysts said.

See: Here’s how markets are positioned for Sunday’s presidential election in France between Macron and Le Pen

What companies are in focus?
  • HCA shares were down 19.6%, on pace for their largest percentage decrease since March 16, 2020, when they fell 19.02%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
  • Gap Inc.
    GPS,
    -18.51%
    stock tumbled nearly 19%, following a bigger-than-expected drop in sales and as the retailer announced the depature of Old Navy CEO Nancy Green.
  • Shares of Qualtrics International Inc.
    XM,
    -9.41%
    fell 9.5% after the experience-management software company reported fiscal first-quarter forecast-beating revenue.
  • Snap Inc.
    SNAP,
    -0.27%
    shares lost 0.7% after the social media group reported quarterly revenue that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
  • Shares of American Express Co.
    AXP,
    -1.87%
    fell 1.4% after topping earnings expectations Friday amid a continued rebound in travel and strong spending trends among younger consumers.
  • Verizon Communications Inc.
    VZ,
    -5.30%
    fell after its earnings report showed a net loss of postpaid phone subscribers in its latest quarter, calling out “competitive dynamics within the industry,” though it said it had its best quarter of broadband net additions in more than a decade.
How are other assets trading?
  • The ICE U.S. Dollar Index 
    DXY,
    +0.56%
     rose 0.7% to trade at its highest since March 2020.
  • Bitcoin 
    BTCUSD,
    -2.51%
    fell 2.4% to trade near $39,500.
  • The U.S. oil benchmark
    CL.1,
    -1.90%
     fell $1.72, or 1.7%, to settle at $102.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, falling 4.1% for the week.
  • Gold
    GC00,
    -0.60%
    fell $13.90, or 0.7%, to settle at $1,934.30 an ounce, leaving a 2.1% weekly fall.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600
    SXXP,
    -1.79%
    dropped 1.5% while London’s FTSE 100 
    UKX,
    -1.39%
    fell 1.4%.
  • The Shanghai Composite 
    SHCOMP,
    +0.23%
     rose 0.2%, while the Hang Seng Index 
    HSI,
    -0.21%
    slipped 0.2% in Hong Kong and Japan’s Nikkei 225 
    NIK,
    -1.63%
    fell 1%.

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