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Business

Meta stock spikes despite earnings miss, as Facebook hits 2 billion users for first time and sales guidance quells fears

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Meta Platforms Inc. shares soared in after-hours trading Wednesday despite an earnings miss, as the Facebook parent company guided for potentially more revenue than Wall Street expected in the new year and promised more share repurchases amid cost cuts.

Meta
META,
+2.79%
said it hauled in $32.17 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, down from $33.67 billion a year ago but stronger than expectations. Earnings were $4.65 billion, or $1.76 a share, compared with $10.3 billion, or $3.67 a share, last year.

Analysts polled by FactSet expected Meta to post fourth-quarter revenue of $31.55 billion on earnings of $2.26 a share, and the beat on sales coincided with a revenue forecast that also met or exceeded expectations. Facebook Chief Financial Officer Susan Li projected first-quarter sales of $26 billion to $28.5 billion, while analysts on average were projecting first-quarter sales of $27.2 billion.

Shares jumped more than 18% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, after closing with a 2.8% gain at $153.12.

Alphabet Inc.’s
GOOGL,
+1.61%

GOOG,
+1.56%
Google and Pinterest Inc.
PINS,
+1.56%
benefited from Meta’s results, with shares for each company rising 4% in extended trading Wednesday.

“Our community continues to grow and I’m pleased with the strong engagement across our apps. Facebook just reached the milestone of 2 billion daily actives,” Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said in a statement announcing the results. “The progress we’re making on our AI discovery engine and Reels are major drivers of this. Beyond this, our management theme for 2023 is the ‘Year of Efficiency’ and we’re focused on becoming a stronger and more nimble organization.”

Read more: Snap suffers worst sales growth yet in holiday quarter, stock plunges after earnings miss

Facebook’s 2 billion-user milestone was slightly better than analysts expected for user growth on Meta’s core social network. Daily active users across all of Facebook’s apps neared, but did not crest, another round number, reaching 2.96 billion, up 5% from a year ago.

Meta has been navigating choppy ad waters as it copes with increasing competition from TikTok and fallout from changes in Apple Inc.’s
AAPL,
+0.79%
ad-tracking system in 2021 that punitively harmed Meta, costing it potentially billions of dollars in advertising sales. Meta has invested heavily in artificial-intelligence tools to rev up its ad-targeting systems and making better recommendations for users of its short-video product Reels, but it laid off thousands of workers after profit and revenue shrunk in recent quarters.

The cost cuts seemed to pay off Wednesday. While Facebook missed on its earnings, it noted that the costs of its layoffs and other restructuring totaled $4.2 billion and reduced the number by roughly $1.24 a share.

Meta executives said they now expect operating expenses to be $89 billion to $95 billion this year, down from previous guidance for $94 billion to $100 billion. Capital expenditures are expected to be $30 billion to $33 billion, down from previous guidance of $34 billion to $37 billion, as Meta cancels multiple data-center projects.

In a conference call with analysts late Wednesday, Zuckerberg called 2023 the “year of efficiency.”

“The reduced outlook reflects our updated plans for lower data-center construction spend in 2023 as we shift to a new data-center architecture that is more cost efficient and can support both AI and non-AI workloads,” Li said in her outlook commentary included in the release.

Meta expects to increase its spending on its own stock. The company’s board approved a $40 billion increase in its share-repurchase authorization; Meta spent nearly $28 billion on its own shares in 2022, and still had nearly $11 billion available for buybacks before that increase.

“Investors are cheering Meta’s plans to return more capital to shareholders despite worries over rising costs related to its metaverse spending,” said Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com.

The results came a day after Snap Inc.
SNAP,
-10.29%
posted fourth-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion, flat from a year ago and the worst year-over-year sales growth Snap has ever reported. But they also arrived on the same day Facebook scored a major win in a California court. The company successfully fended off the Federal Trade Commission bid to win a preliminary injunction to block Meta’s planned acquisition of VR startup Within Unlimited.

Read more: Meta wins bid to buy VR startup Within Unlimited, beating U.S. FTC in court: report

Meta shares have plunged 53% over the past 12 months, while the broader S&P 500 index 
SPX,
+1.05%
has tumbled 10% the past year.

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Business

Despite ban, China nuclear-weapons lab has bought U.S. chips for years

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SINGAPORE — China’s top nuclear-weapons research institute has bought sophisticated U.S. computer chips at least a dozen times in the past two and half years, circumventing decades-old American export restrictions meant to curb such sales.

A Wall Street Journal review of procurement documents found that the state-run China Academy of Engineering Physics has managed to obtain the semiconductors made by U.S. companies such as Intel Corp.
INTC,
-6.41%
and Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
+2.84%
since 2020 despite its placement on a U.S. export blacklist in 1997.

The chips, which are widely used in data centers and personal computers, were acquired from resellers in China. Some were procured as components for computing systems, with many bought by the institute’s laboratory studying computational fluid dynamics, a broad scientific field that includes the modeling of nuclear explosions.

Such purchases defy longstanding restrictions imposed by the U.S. that aim to prevent the use of any U.S. products for atomic-weapons research by foreign powers. The academy, known as CAEP, was one of the first Chinese institutions put on the U.S. blacklist, known as the entity list, because of its nuclear work.

A Journal review of research papers published by CAEP found that at least 34 over the past decade referenced using American semiconductors in the research. They were used in a range of ways, including analyzing data and generating algorithms. Nuclear experts said that in at least seven of them, the research can have applications to maintaining nuclear stockpiles. CAEP didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The findings underline the challenge facing the Biden administration as it seeks to more aggressively counter the use of American technology by China’s military. In October, the U.S. expanded the scope of export regulations to prevent China from obtaining the most advanced American chips and chip-manufacturing tools that power artificial intelligence and supercomputers, which are increasingly important to modern warfare.

An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.

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Health

These healthy diets were associated with lower risk of death, according to a study of 119,000 people across four decades

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Eat healthy, live longer.

That’s the takeaway from a major study published this month in JAMA Internal Medicine. Scientists led by a team from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health found that people who most closely adhered to at least one of four healthy eating patterns were less likely to die from cardiovascular disease, cancer or respiratory disease compared with people who did not adhere as closely to these diets. They were also less likely to die of any cause.

“These findings support the recommendations of Dietary Guidelines for Americans that multiple healthy eating patterns can be adapted to individual food traditions and preferences,” the researchers concluded, adding that the results were consistent across different racial and ethnic groups. The eating habits and mortality rates of more than 75,000 women from 1984 to 2020 over 44,000 men from 1986 to 2020 were included in the study.

The four diets studied were the Healthy Eating Index, the Alternate Mediterranean Diet, the Healthful Plant-Based Diet Index and the Alternate Healthy Eating Index. All four share some components, including whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes. But there are also differences: For instance, the Alternate Mediterranean Diet encourages fish consumption, and the Healthful Plant-Based Diet Index discourages eating meat.

The Alternate Mediterranean Diet is adapted from the original Mediterranean Diet, which includes olive oil (which is rich in omega-3 fatty acids), fruits, nuts, cereals, vegetables, legumes and fish. It allows for moderate consumption of alcohol and dairy products but low consumption of sweets and only the occasional serving of red meat. The alternate version, meanwhile, cuts out dairy entirely, only includes whole grains and uses the same alcohol-intake guideline for men and women, JAMA says.

The world’s ‘best diets’ overlap with study results

The Mediterranean Diet consistently ranks No. 1 in the U.S. News and World Report’s Best Diets ranking, which looks at seven criteria: short-term weight loss, long-term weight loss, effectiveness in preventing cardiovascular disease, effectiveness in preventing diabetes, ease of compliance, nutritional completeness and health risks. The 2023 list ranks the top three diets as the Mediterranean Diet, the DASH Diet and the Flexitarian Diet. 

The DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) Diet recommends fruits, vegetables, nuts, whole grains, poultry, fish and low-fat dairy products and restricts salt, red meat, sweets and sugar-sweetened beverages. The Flexitarian Diet is similar to the other diets in that it’s mainly vegetarian, but it allows the occasional serving of meat or fish. All three diets are associated with improved metabolic health, lower blood pressure and reduced risk of Type 2 diabetes.

Frank Hu, a professor of nutrition and epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health and co-author of the latest study, said it’s critical to examine the associations between the U.S. government’s Dietary Guidelines for Americans and long-term health. “Our findings will be valuable for the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee, which is being formed to evaluate current evidence surrounding different eating patterns and health outcomes,” he said.

Reducing salt intake is a good place to start. In 2021, the Food and Drug Administration issued new guidance for restaurants and food manufacturers to, over a two-and-a-half-year period, voluntarily reduce the amount of sodium in their food to help consumers stay under a limit of 3,000 milligrams per day — still higher than the recommended daily allowance. Americans consume around 3,400 milligrams of sodium per day, on average, but the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that people consume less than 2,300 milligrams each day.

Related: Eating 400 calories a day from these foods could raise your dementia risk by over 20%

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Business

U.S. Treasurys at ‘critical point’: Stocks, bonds correlation shifts as fixed-income market flashes recession warning

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Bonds and stocks may be getting back to their usual relationship, a plus for investors with a traditional mix of assets in their portfolios amid fears that the U.S. faces a recession this year.

“The bottom line is the correlation now has shifted back to a more traditional one, where stocks and bonds do not necessarily move together,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at  Charles Schwab, in a phone interview. “It is good for the 60-40 portfolio because the point of that is to have diversification.”

That classic portfolio, consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, was hammered in 2022. It’s unusual for both stocks and bonds to tank so precipitously, but they did last year as the Federal Reserve rapidly raised interest rates in an effort to tame surging inflation in the U.S.

While inflation remains high, it has shown signs of easing, raising investors’ hopes that the Fed could slow its aggressive pace of monetary tightening. And with the bulk of interest rate hikes potentially over, bonds seem to be returning to their role as safe havens for investors fearing gloom.

“Slower growth, less inflation, that’s good for bonds,” said Jones, pointing to economic data released in the past week that reflected those trends. 

The Commerce Department said Jan. 18 that retail sales in the U.S. slid a sharp 1.1% in December, while the Federal Reserve released data that same day showing U.S. industrial production fell more than expected in December. Also on Jan. 18, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the producer-price index, a gauge of wholesale inflation, dropped last month.

Stock prices fell sharply that day amid fears of a slowing economy, but Treasury bonds rallied as investors sought safe-haven assets. 

“That negative correlation between the returns from Treasuries and U.S. equities stands in stark contrast to the strong positive correlation that prevailed over most of 2022,” said Oliver Allen, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Jan. 19 note. The “shift in the U.S. stock-bond correlation might be here to stay.”

A chart in his note illustrates that monthly returns from U.S. stocks and 10-year Treasury bonds were often negatively correlated over the past two decades, with 2022’s strong positive correlation being relatively unusual over that time frame.


CAPITAL ECONOMICS NOTE DATED JAN. 19, 2023

“The retreat in inflation has much further to run,” while the U.S. economy may be “taking a turn for the worse,” Allen said. “That informs our view that Treasuries will eke out further gains over the coming months even as U.S. equities struggle.” 

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
TLT,
-1.62%
has climbed 6.7% this year through Friday, compared with a gain of 3.5% for the S&P 500
SPX,
+1.89%,
according to FactSet data. The iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF
TLH,
-1.40%
rose 5.7% over the same period. 

Charles Schwab has “a pretty positive view of the fixed-income markets now,” even after the bond market’s recent rally, according to Jones. “You can lock in an attractive yield for a number of years with very low risk,” she said. “That’s something that has been missing for a decade.”

Jones said she likes U.S. Treasurys, investment-grade corporate bonds, and investment-grade municipal bonds for people in high tax brackets. 

Read: Vanguard expects municipal bond ‘renaissance’ as investors should ‘salivate’ at higher yields

Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, is overweight fixed income relative to stocks as recession risks are elevated.

“Keep it simple, stick to high-quality” assets such as U.S. government securities, he said in a phone interview. Investors start “gravitating” toward longer-term Treasurys when they have concerns about the health of the economy, he said.

The bond market has signaled concerns for months about a potential economic contraction, with the inversion of the U.S. Treasury market’s yield curve. That’s when short-term rates are above longer-term yields, which historically has been viewed as a warning sign that the U.S. may be heading for a recession.

But more recently, two-year Treasury yields
TMUBMUSD02Y,
4.193%
caught the attention of Charles Schwab’s Jones, as they moved below the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate. Typically, “you only see the two-year yield go under the fed funds rate when you’re going into a recession,” she said.

The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell 5.7 basis points over the past week to 4.181% on Friday, in a third straight weekly decline, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That compares with an effective federal funds rate of 4.33%, in the Fed’s targeted range of 4.25% to 4.5%. 

Two-year Treasury yields peaked more than two months ago, at around 4.7% in November, “and have been trending down since,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note emailed Jan. 19. “This further confirms that markets strongly believe the Fed will be done raising rates very shortly.”

As for longer-term rates, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.479%
ended Friday at 3.483%, also falling for three straight weeks, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions. 

‘Bad sign for stocks’

Meanwhile, long-dated Treasuries maturing in more than 20 years have “just rallied by more than 2 standard deviations over the last 50 days,” Colas said in the DataTrek note. “The last time this happened was early 2020, going into the Pandemic Recession.” 

Long-term Treasurys are at “a critical point right now, and markets know that,” he wrote. “Their recent rally is bumping up against the statistical limit between general recession fears and pointed recession prediction.”

A further rally in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF would be “a bad sign for stocks,” according to DataTrek.

“An investor can rightly question the bond market’s recession-tilting call, but knowing it’s out there is better than being unaware of this important signal,” said Colas.   

The U.S. stock market ended sharply higher Friday, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.00%
and S&P 500 each booked weekly losses to snap a two-week win streak. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased its weekly losses on Friday to finish with a third straight week of gains.

In the coming week, investors will weigh a wide range of fresh economic data, including manufacturing and services activity, jobless claims and consumer spending. They’ll also get a reading from the personal-consumption-expenditures-price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. 

‘Backside of the storm’

The fixed-income market is in “the backside of the storm,” according to Vanguard Group’s first-quarter report on the asset class.

“The upper-right quadrant of a hurricane is called the ‘dirty side’ by meteorologists because it is the most dangerous. It can bring high winds, storm surges, and spin-off tornadoes that cause massive destruction as a hurricane makes landfall,” Vanguard said in the report. 

“Similarly, last year’s fixed income market was hit by the brunt of a storm,” the firm said. “Low initial rates, surprisingly high inflation, and a rate-hike campaign by the Federal Reserve led to historic bond market losses.”

Now, rates might not move “much higher,” but concerns about the economy persist, according to Vanguard. “A recession looms, credit spreads remain uncomfortably narrow, inflation is still high, and several important countries face fiscal challenges,” the asset manager said. 

Read: Fed’s Williams says ‘far too high’ inflation remains his No. 1 concern

‘Defensive’

Given expectations for the U.S. economy to weaken this year, corporate bonds will probably underperform government fixed income, said Chris Alwine, Vanguard’s global head of credit, in a phone interview. And when it comes to corporate debt, “we are defensive in our positioning.”

That means Vanguard has lower exposure to corporate bonds than it would typically, while looking to “upgrade the credit quality of our portfolios” with more investment-grade than high-yield, or so-called junk, debt, he said. Plus, Vanguard is favoring non-cyclical sectors such as pharmaceuticals or healthcare, said Alwine.  

There are risks to Vanguard’s outlook on rates. 

“While this is not our base case, we could see a Fed, faced with continued wage inflation, forced to raising a fed funds rate closer to 6%,” Vanguard warned in its report. The climb in bond yields already seen in the market would “help temper the pain,” the firm said, but “the market has not yet begun to price such a possibility.”

Alwine said he expects the Fed will lift its benchmark rate to as high as 5% to 5.25%, then leave it at around that level for possibly two quarters before it begins easing its monetary policy. 

“Last year, bonds were not a good diversifier of stocks because the Fed was raising rates aggressively to address the inflation concerns,” said Alwine. “We believe the more typical correlations are coming back.”

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Business

New 2023 EV tax incentives: How they work, which cars qualify, and where to get even more savings

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Quick facts about federal incentives for electric cars:

  • The government delayed some rules for EV tax credits until March 2023.
  • Select GM
    GM,
    +2.60%
    and Tesla
    TSLA,
    +2.47%
    electric vehicles became eligible (again) for federal tax incentives in January 2023.
  • Many electric cars do not qualify, but we help you find the ones that do.

Consumers considering an electric vehicle right now may want to weigh how tax credits on zero-emissions cars work and how they could affect any upcoming buying decisions.

The Inflation Reduction Act signed in August 2022 includes electric vehicle tax credits provisions set to reshape how Americans buy electric cars and plug-in hybrids.

Read on to learn the impact. We will tell you about the new changes to federal tax incentives for electric cars. The new tax credits can help defray the cost of buying a zero-emission vehicle when combined with state and local rebates.

How the new EV tax credits work

According to Kelley Blue Book research, a new electric car’s average transaction price came in at about $65,000 in November, nearly a 9% jump from a year ago. The industrywide average that includes gas-powered vehicles and electric cars reached about $48,900 in the same timeframe.

  • Extends $7,500 tax credit. The Inflation Reduction Act extends the current incentives of up to $7,500 in tax credits for select electric cars, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen-powered vehicles that meet its qualifications. The federal government continues to update the list of qualifying vehicles.
  • Discount up front. In the future, it’s possible you can qualify to get your EV tax credit at the time of purchase on new vehicles, though if the dealership does not offer it immediately, you can still request the credit on your taxes.
  • Caps EV price tags. The new incentives restrict qualifying vehicles to low-emissions trucks, SUVs, and vans with manufacturer’s suggested retail prices of up to $80,000 and cars up to $55,000.
  • No limits for manufacturers. As of Jan. 1, 2023, manufacturers like GM and Tesla were no longer limited on incentives to the first 200,000 EVs sold, which was the case under the old tax credits.
  • Used electric vehicle rebate. Anyone considering a used electric car under $25,000 could obtain a new $4,000 tax credit, subject to income and other limits. To qualify, used cars must be two model years old. The vehicle also must be purchased at a dealership. The vehicle also only qualifies once in its lifetime. Purchasers of used vehicles can only qualify for one credit every three years, and to qualify, individuals must make $75,000 or less, or $112,500 for heads of households and $150,000 for joint return filers. The credit ends in 2032.
  • Income caps to qualify. The rebates are limited to individuals reporting adjusted gross incomes of $150,000 or less on taxes, $225,000 for those filing as head of household, and $300,000 for joint filers.
  • Ineligible cars become eligible. Additionally, the measure allows carmakers like Tesla and General Motors, which had run out of available credits under the old plan, to be eligible for them again in January 2023. However, many of their products would still not qualify due to car price caps.
  • New rules on manufacturing locations. To qualify for the subsidy, electric car batteries must be manufactured in the U.S., Canada, or Mexico, while the batteries’ minerals and parts must also come from North America to qualify. Cars with Chinese-made battery components would be ineligible. These rules render many current EVs ineligible. This requirement phases in over time. That means some cars eligible now could become ineligible over time unless manufacturers change their supply chains. However, the U.S. Treasury Department delayed until March the regulations that govern where battery minerals and parts must be sourced.
  • Some leased vehicles may qualify.
  • Hydrogen fuel-cell cars remain eligible. The $7,500 credit also applies to hydrogen fuel-cell cars like the Toyota Mirai or Hyundai Nexo. However, those make sense only for buyers who live near one of America’s few hydrogen refueling stations. Those stations are mostly concentrated in California. 

Learn more: What is EV, BEV, HEV, PHEV? Here’s your guide to types of electric cars

What the old EV tax credits provided

Before the Inflation Reduction Act, buyers could claim a tax credit on just the first 200,000 electric cars a manufacturer sold. That meant that the most popular models lost the credit. The incentive did not restrict income or purchase prices.

The old tax credits also applied to plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles, but not used vehicles.

President Biden signed the act into law on Aug. 1, 2022. Most of its provisions kicked in on Jan. 1, 2023. That created a brief window when the law required qualifying cars to be built in North America, but the 200,000-car-per-manufacturer limit still applied. If you bought an electric car between Aug. 16, 2022, and Jan. 1, 2023, it qualified for a credit only if it was built in North America by a manufacturer that hadn’t sold 200,000 or more qualifying cars.

Tesla and General Motors’ electric car tax credits were reinstated in January. So if you have your heart set on a Tesla Model 3 or perhaps a Cadillac Lyriq, now is the time to act.

Also see: 2.1 million EVs and plug-in hybrids on U.S. roads, and here’s how much gas they’ve saved

List of 2023 electric vehicles that qualify

According to the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, this is the latest list of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles that qualify if purchased after Jan. 1, 2023. The site notes that several manufacturers had yet to submit information on specific eligible makes and models and for users to check back for updated information.

Vehicle MSRP Limit
Audi Q5 TFSI e Quattro PHEV $80,000
BMW
BMW,
+0.07%
330e 		$55,000
BMW X5 eDrive 45e $80,000
Ford
F,
+2.69%
Escape PHEV 		$80,000
Ford E-Transit $80,000
Ford F-150 Lightning $80,000
Ford Mustang Mach-E $55,000
Lincoln Aviator Grand Touring $80,000
Lincoln Corsair Grand Touring $55,000
Chevrolet Bolt EV $55,000
Chevrolet Bolt EUV $55,000
Cadillac Lyriq $55,000
Nissan
NSANY,
+2.85%
Leaf 		$55,000
Rivian
RIVN,
-0.97%
R1S 		$80,000
Rivian R1T $80,000
Chrysler Pacifica PHEV $80,000
Jeep Wrangler 4xe $80,000
Jeep Grand Cherokee 4xe $80,000
Tesla Model 3 $55,000
Tesla Model Y 7-Seat Variant $80,000
Volkswagen
VWAGY,
+2.00%
ID.4 		$55,000
Volvo
VLVLY,
+3.20%
S60 T8 Recharge PHEV 		$55,000
State and local incentives near you

Though the federal government’s effort makes up the lion’s share of government EV discounts, some states and local governments offer incentive programs to help new car buyers afford something more efficient. These can be tax credits, rebates, reduced vehicle taxes, single-occupant carpool-lane access stickers, and exemptions from registration or inspection fees.

States like California and Connecticut offer broad support for electric vehicle buyers. However, Idaho, Kentucky, and Wyoming are among the states offering no support to individual EV buyers. The U.S. Department of Energy maintains an interactive list of state-level incentives, while Plug In America posts an interactive map of EV incentives.

Also read: What California’s ban on gas cars could mean for you—even if you don’t live there

Your electric utility may help

Lastly, it’s not just governments that can help you with the cost of a new EV. Some local electric utilities provide incentive programs to help buyers get into electric vehicles. After all, they’re among the ones that benefit when you turn your fuel dollars into electricity dollars.

Read: 3 reasons the Hyundai Ioniq 6 makes the Tesla Model 3 seem a bit boring

Some offer rebates on cars. Others offer discounts on chargers or install them free when you sign up for off-peak charging programs.

For example, the Nebraska Public Power District offers a $4,000 rebate to customers who purchase a new electric car.

This story originally ran on KBB.com. 

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Business

Stocks got wrecked by rate shock in 2022. Here’s what will drive market in 2023.

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2022 is over. Take a breath.

Investors were understandably eager to ring the bell on the stock market’s worst year since 2008, with the S&P 500
SPX,
-0.25%
falling 19.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.22%
dropping 8.8% and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.11%
shedding 33.1%.

Adding to the pain, the bond market was also a disaster, with some segments seeing their biggest annual losses in history while U.S. Treasury prices slumped, sending yields soaring.

That offered a rare double whammy for investors, who usually see portfolios cushioned by bonds when equities suffer.

So now what? The flip of the calendar doesn’t make the factors that drove market losses in 2022 go away, but it offers investors an opportunity to think about how the economy and the markets will evolve in the year ahead.

A rate shock as the Federal Reserve ratcheted up interest rates at a historically rapid pace in its effort to rein in inflation set the tone in 2022. A return to higher rates — and what may be the end of a four-decade era of falling interest rates — is expected to reverberate in 2023 and beyond.

The Tell: End of 40-year era of falling interest rates is crucial ‘sea change’ for investors: Howard Marks

While inflation, still elevated, shows signs it has peaked, the market was robbed of a seasonal rally heading into the new year by fears the Fed’s continued efforts will spark a recession that will devastate corporate earnings in 2023.

Read: How a Santa Claus rally, or lack thereof, sets the stage for the stock market in first quarter

The interplay between Fed policy, inflation, economic growth and earnings will drive the market in 2023, analysts say.

The Fed

“This has been a Fed-led market that’s been predicated on inflation that was not transitory,” as monetary policy makers had initially believed, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, in a phone interview.

The Fed dropped the “transitory rhetoric” and launched an aggressive campaign to tackle inflation. “That’s led to a market that’s concerned about economic growth and whether we enter 2023 facing a significant economic downturn,” Krosby said.

Inflation

Investors, however, might find some optimism in signs inflation has peaked, analysts said.

“The days of sub-2% CPI that we enjoyed from ’08-’20 are likely gone, possibly for a long time. But inflation could fall far enough (3%-4%) for the Fed to essentially think it has accomplished its mission (although it won’t say it directly as the target is still 2%), but for all intents and purposes, we could exit 2023 without a material inflation problem,” said Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, in a Friday note.

Skeptics doubt that a slowdown in inflation will be sufficient to keep the Fed from following through on its indications it intends to raise the fed-funds rate above 5% and keep it there for some time.

Hedge-fund titan David Tepper in a December interview with CNBC said he was “leaning short” on the stock market “because I think the upside/downside just doesn’t make sense to me when I have so many…central banks telling me what they’re going to do.”

See: Fed officials reinforce stern message of slowing inflation by higher interest rates

Recession fears

A resilient job market so far has optimists — and Fed officials — arguing that the economy could avoid a so-called hard landing as monetary policy continues to tighten.

Also read: Stock-market investors face 3 recession scenarios in 2023

Investors, however, “are anticipating an economic recession to materialize early in 2023, as evidenced by the three quarters of projected S&P 500 index earnings declines and continued defensive sector leanings,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, in a Wednesday note. “The severity of the recession remains in question. We expect it to be mild.”

The bear market for the S&P 500 is backdated to Jan. 3, 2022, when it closed at a record high before beginning its slide. It ended with a yearly loss of 19.4%.

“The average bear market since World War II has lasted 14 months and resulted in a decline of 35.7% from the previous high,” wrote analysts at Glenmede in a December note.

“At approximately 12 months and 20%, the current bear market appears to be close to 2/3 of the way through the typical bear-market decline. The current market appears to be following a similar trajectory of an average historical bear market so far,” they wrote. “Based on past trends, on average, bear markets do not bottom until after a recession begins, but before a recession ends.”

Related: How long will stocks stay in a bear market? It hinges on if a recession hits, says Wells Fargo Institute

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Business

Tesla is not alone: 18 (and a half) other big stocks are headed for their worst year on record

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In the worst year for stocks since the Great Recession, several big names are headed for their worst year on record with just one trading day left in 2022.

The S&P 500 index
SPX,
+1.75%
and Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.05%
are both headed for their worst year since 2008, with declines of 20.6% and 9.5% respectively through Thursday. But at least 19 big-name stocks — and half of another — are headed for a more ignominious title for 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data: Worst year ever.

Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
+8.08%
is having the worst year among the group of S&P 1500 constituents with a market capitalization of $30 billion or higher headed for record annual percentage declines. Tesla shares have declined 65.4% so far this year, which would be easily the worst year on record for the popular stock, which has only had one previous negative year since going public in 2010, an 11% decline in 2016.

Tesla may not be the worst decliner on the list by the time 2023 arrives, however, as another Silicon Valley company is right on its heels. Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
+4.01%,
the parent company of Facebook, has fallen 64.2% so far this year, as Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has stuck to spending billions to develop the “metaverse” even as the online-advertising industry that provides the bulk of his revenue has stagnated. It would also only be the second year in Facebook’s history that the stock has declined, after a 25.7% drop in 2018, though shares did end Facebook’s IPO year of 2012 30% lower than the original IPO price.

Only one other stock could contend with Tesla and Meta’s record declines this year, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has some familiarity with that company as well. PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL,
+4.46%,
where Musk first found fame during the dot-com boom, has declined 63.2% so far this year as executives have refocused the company on attracting and retaining high-value users instead of trying to get as many users as possible on the payments platform. It would be the second consecutive down year for PayPal, which had not experienced that before 2021 since spinning off from eBay Inc.
EBAY,
+4.76%
in 2015.

None of the other companies headed for their worst year yet stand to lose more than half their value this year, though Charter Communications Inc.
CHTR,
+1.99%
is close. The telecommunications company’s stock has declined 48.2% so far, as investors worry about plans to spend big in 2023 in an attempt to turn around declining internet-subscriber numbers.

In addition to the list below, Alphabet Inc.’s class C shares
GOOG,
+2.88%
are having their worst year on record with a 38.4% decline. MarketWatch is not including that on the list, however, as Alphabet’s class A shares
GOOGL,
+2.82%
fell 55.5% in 2008; the separate class of nonvoting shares was created in 2012 to allow the company — then still called Google — to continue issuing shares to employees without diluting the control of co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page.

Apart from that portion of Alphabet’s shares, here are the 19 large stocks headed for their worst year ever, based on Thursday’s closing prices.

Company % decline in 2022
Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
+8.08% 		65.4%
Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
+4.01% 		64.2%
PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL,
+4.46% 		62.6%
Charter Communications Inc. 48.0%
Edwards Lifesciences Corp.
EW,
+2.87% 		41.9%
ServiceNow Inc.
NOW,
+3.67% 		39.9%
Zoetis Inc.
ZTS,
+3.00% 		39.3%
Fidelity National Information Services Inc.
FIS,
+2.03% 		37.8%
Accenture PLC
ACN,
+2.00% 		35.3%
Fortinet Inc.
FTNT,
+2.82% 		31.5%
Estee Lauder Cos. Inc.
EL,
+1.52% 		32.5%
Moderna Inc.
MRNA,
+1.34% 		29.6%
Iqvia Holdings Inc.
IQV,
+2.94% 		26.3%
Carrier Global Corp.
CARR,
+2.17% 		22.8%
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
HLT,
+1.63% 		19.2%
Broadcom Inc.
AVGO,
+2.37% 		16.2%
Arista Networks Inc.
ANET,
+2.27% 		15.2%
Dow Inc.
DOW,
+1.32% 		10.7%
Otis Worldwide Corp.
OTIS,
+2.16% 		9.2%

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Business

U.S. stock futures rise ahead of last trading week of 2022

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U.S. stock futures rose Monday night, ahead of the final trading week of 2022.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
YM00,
+0.44%
gained more than 150 points, or 0.5%, as of 11 p.m. Eastern. S&P 500 futures
ES00,
+0.59%
and Nasdaq-100 futures
NQ00,
+0.71%
were also logging solid gains, indicating positive market moves when regular trading resumes Tuesday from the three-day Christmas holiday.

Oil prices rose
CL.1,
+0.85%,
as the U.S. Dollar Index
DXY,
-0.30%
slipped.

Last week, the Dow gained nearly 1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell for a third straight week.

See more: What to expect for the stock market in 2023 after the biggest decline since the financial crisis

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 
DJIA,
+0.53%
rose 176.44 points, or 0.5%, to close at 33,203.93. The S&P 500 
SPX,
+0.59%
 gained 22.43 points, or 0.6%, finishing at 3,844.82, for a weekly decline of 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite 
COMP,
+0.21%
 closed at 10,497.86, up 6.85 points, or 0.4%. For the week, the Nasdaq fell 1.9%.

Friday marked the start of the so-called Santa Claus rally period — the final five trading days of the calendar year and the first two trading days of the new year. That stretch has, on average, produced gains for stocks, but failure to do so is often read as a negative indicator.

Read more: How a Santa Claus rally, or lack thereof, sets the stage for the stock market in first quarter

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Business

Dow falls nearly 500 points after strong data, bearish comments by David Tepper

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U.S. stocks traded lower on Thursday, erasing most of their gains from their biggest rally in three weeks after a round of upbeat economic data and a warning from hedge-fund titan David Tepper that he was “leaning short” against both stocks and bonds on expectations the Federal Reserve and other central banks will continue tightening into 2023.

Positive economic news can be a negative for stocks by underlining expectations that monetary policy makers will remain aggressive in their efforts to quash inflation.

What’s happening
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -1.51%
    fell 472 points, or 1.4%, to 32,903.
  • The S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.99%
    shed 71 points, or 1.8%, to 3,807.
  • The Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -2.84%
    fell 272 points, or 2.5%, to 10,437.

A day earlier, all three major indexes recorded their best gain in three weeks as the Dow advanced 526.74 points.

What’s driving markets

Investors saw another raft of strong economic data Thursday morning, including a revised reading on third-quarter gross domestic product which showed the U.S. economy expanded more quickly than previously believed. Growth was revised up to 3.2%, up from 2.9% from the previous revision released last month.

See: Economy grew at 3.2% rate in third quarter thanks to strong consumer spending

The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in the week before Christmas rose slightly to 216,000, but new filings remained low and signaled the labor market is still quite strong. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast new claims would total 220,000 in the seven days ending Dec 17.

“Jobless claims ticking slightly up but coming in below expectations could be a sign that the Fed’s wish of a slowing labor market will have to wait until 2023. While weekly jobless claims aren’t the best indicator of the overall labor market, they have remained in a robust range these last two months suggesting the labor market remains strong and has withstood the Fed’s tightening, at least for the time being,” said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office, in emailed comments.

“While weekly jobless claims aren’t the best indicator of the overall labor market, they have remained in a robust range these last two months suggesting the labor market remains strong and has withstood the Fed’s tightening, at least for the time being,” he wrote. “It’s no surprise to see the market take a breather today after yesterday’s rally as investors parse through earnings data, and despite some beats this week, expectations that earnings will remain as resilient in 2023 may be overblown.”

Stocks were feeling pressure after Appaloosa Management’s Tepper shared a cautious outlook for markets based on the expectation that central bankers around the world will continue hiking interest rates.

“I would probably say I’m leaning short on the equity markets right now because the upside-downside doesn’t make sense to me when I have so many people, so many central banks, telling me what they are going to do, what they want to do, what they expect to do,” Tepper said in a CNBC interview.

Key Words: Billionaire investor David Tepper would ‘lean short’ on stock market because central banks are saying ‘what they’re going to do’

A day earlier, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey came in at an eight-month high, which helped stoke a rally in stocks initially spurred by strong earnings from Nike Inc. and FedEx Corp. released Tuesday evening. This optimistic outlook helped stocks clinch their best daily performance in three weeks.

Volumes are starting to dry up as the year winds down, making markets more susceptible to bigger moves. According to Dow Jones Market Data, Wednesday saw the least combined volume on major exchanges since Nov. 29.

Read: Is the stock market open on Monday after Christmas Day?

In other economic data news, the U.S. leading index fell a sharp 1% in November, suggesting that the U.S. economy is heading toward a downturn.

Many market strategists are positioned defensively as they expect stocks could tumble to fresh lows in the new year.

See: Wall Street’s stock-market forecasts for 2022 were off by the widest margin since 2008: Will next year be any different?

Katie Stockton, a technical strategist at Fairlead Strategies, warned clients in a Thursday note that they should brace for more downside ahead.

“We expect the major indices to remain firm next week, helped by oversold conditions, but would brace for more downside in January given the recent downturn,” Stockton said.

Others said the latest data and comments from Tepper have simply refocused investors on the fact that the Fed, European Central Bank and now the Bank of Japan are preparing to continue tightening monetary policy.

“Yesterday was the short covering rally, but the bottom line is the trend is still short and we’re still fighting the Fed,” said Eric Diton, president and managing director of the Wealth Alliance.

Single-stock movers
  • AMC Entertainment Holdings 
    AMC,
    -14.91%
    was down sharply after the movie theater operator announced a $110 million equity capital raise.
  • Tesla Inc. 
    TSLA,
    -8.18%
    shares continued to tumble as the company has been one of the worst performers on the S&P 500 this year.
  • Shares of Verizon Communications Inc. 
    VZ,
    -0.53%
    were down again on Thursday as the company heads for its worst year on record.
  • Shares of CarMax Inc. 
    KMX,
    -6.60%
    tumbled after the used vehicle seller reported fiscal third-quarter profit and sales that dropped well below expectations.
  • Chipmakers and suppliers of equipment and materials, including Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    -8.60%,
    Advanced Micro Devices 
    AMD,
    -7.17%
    and Applied Materials Inc.
    AMAT,
    -8.54%,
    were lower on Thursday.

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