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Inside the US scramble to run down the facts as the Russia-Ukraine war spills into NATO territory

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Washington
CNN
 — 

President Joe Biden was asleep on the other side of the world when aides woke him up in the middle of the night there with urgent news: a missile had struck Poland and killed two people.

By 5:30 am local time in Bali, where the president was attending the G20 summit, Biden, still in a t-shirt and khakis, was on the phone with his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda seeking clarity on where the missile had actually come from – a critical fact due to the potentially dire implications of a Russian missile strike on a NATO ally.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was traveling with Biden, had also been roused with a knock on the door by his body man around 4 a.m. local time with news of the explosion, a US official said – news that most US officials only discovered from public reports and conversations with Polish officials.

Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke to their Polish counterparts and joined Biden for the call with Duda.

Polish officials first began hearing about a potential explosion in the eastern border village of Przewodów around 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, or 11 pm Bali time, sources said, and information began trickling out publicly and briefed to allies around 1 p.m. ET, or 2 a.m. in Bali.

As the morning wore on there and more intelligence came in, it became clear to American officials examining satellite-based intelligence systems and speaking to their Polish counterparts that the missile, which landed on a Polish farm in the country’s far east, appeared to have been launched by Ukraine as part of its air defense systems.

After several anxious hours, Biden was the first to relieve some of the tension, telling reporters that initial information suggested the missile was not launched by Russia.

The relief among US officials was palpable. Contrary to their worst fears the preliminary intelligence suggested that Russia had not deliberately attacked Poland, one official said. But for Biden and his advisers, the episode still represented a situation they had long feared: an unintentional strike in NATO territory, for which the implications and consequences remained murky.

With the situation so fluid, Biden’s advisers urged calm and patience, including to Ukrainian officials.

Around an hour after the news broke of the incident, Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address that “Russian missiles hit Poland,” calling it “a very significant escalation” that required a response.

Sullivan quickly called Zelensky’s office after those remarks, and urged officials to tread more carefully with how they were speaking about the incident, sources familiar with the call said. Biden and Zelensky did not speak on Tuesday night, despite requests by the Ukrainian leader to arrange a call, a source familiar with the matter said.

The US and Poland quickly agreed to work closely together on an investigation of the strike, and CIA Director Bill Burns met with Duda in Warsaw on Wednesday evening, a US official said. Just hours before, Burns had been hunkered down at the US embassy in Kyiv as Russian missiles struck the city.

But the incident has also created some cracks in the West’s alliance with Ukraine.

Biden and Duda have now both said publicly that the missile appeared to have originated with Ukraine’s air defense system—a claim Zelensky has continued to adamantly deny, which has frustrated Polish officials, sources said.

And although Biden spoke with Duda and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in the aftermath of the strike, and held emergency talks with world leaders at the G20, the president had still not spoken directly with Zelensky by Wednesday afternoon, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

Instead, Sullivan spoke to Zelensky’s chief of staff in the hours after the explosion, the sources said, and Blinken spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

Ukraine has also requested to join the investigatory team, made up of US and Polish officials, inspecting the site of the missile strike, Zelensky said on Wednesday. “We have to participate in the investigation,” he told reporters. But that request has not yet been granted.

Back in Washington on Tuesday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was in a meeting with the Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley when an aide interrupted with the news of the explosion, and all three officials called their Polish counterparts soon after.

A short time later, around 2 p.m., a press conference with Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder was mere minutes away. But some officials in the Pentagon had only just heard about a missile hitting Poland from the media, and the Pentagon had nothing to corroborate a Russian missile launch that struck NATO territory.

Pentagon officials had to decide whether to go through with it, knowing they had virtually no information to provide on what immediately became the single most important item of the day.

In the end, one official told CNN, the press shop pushed ahead, reasoning that cancelling the press conference at the last minute would signal the exact sort of panic officials were eager to avoid.

As Ryder stood at the podium, he fielded repeated questions about the missile for which he did not yet have any answers.

Meanwhile, Milley was in his office in the outer ring of the Pentagon, instructing his staff to line up phone calls, officials said. First up was his Polish counterpart, quickly followed by his Ukrainian counterpart. Milley hopped off one call and onto another, speaking to other defense chiefs, as well as to Gen. Chris Cavoli, the commander of European Command, who was also working the phones.

Milley’s staff worked to get his Russian counterpart, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, on the line. The two last spoke towards the end of October, one of the only times they’ve held discussions since Russia’s invasion began. But this time, there was no call, and the two never spoke Tuesday night.

That evening, Milley and Austin briefed Biden on what they had learned about the incident.

By Wednesday, multiple senior US officials were saying publicly that intelligence pointed to the explosion coming from a Ukrainian air defense missile that landed in Poland accidentally. The US had also shared the classified information with allies before Wednesday morning’s North Atlantic Council meeting at NATO headquarters, an official said.

“We have seen nothing that contradicts President Duda’s preliminary assessment that this explosion was most likely the result of a Ukrainian air defense missile that unfortunately landed in Poland,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement.

In early examinations of the site of the explosion, debris was found that appeared to be from a Soviet-era S-300 missile, sources familiar with the intelligence said. The initial assessment is that the Ukrainian air defense missile tried to intercept a Russian missile but missed and landed in Poland, multiple US and NATO officials said.

In a press conference on Wednesday, Duda said that “from the information that we and our allies have, it was an S-300 rocket made in the Soviet Union, an old rocket and there is no evidence that it was launched by the Russian side. It is highly probable that it was fired by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense.”

The US has also determined that the Russian missile likely continued on its trajectory and either hit its intended target or landed in close proximity to it, one official said.

Zelensky on Wednesday afternoon insisted that the missile was not launched by Ukrainian forces. He told reporters in Kyiv “I have no doubt that it was not our missile,” citing reports he had received from the command of the Ukrainian armed forces and the Air Force.

Zelensky also expressed frustration that Ukrainian officials had not been permitted to join the joint Polish-US investigation of the site, and said he wanted to see “the number on the missile, because all missiles have numbers on them.”

“Do we have the right to be in the investigation team?” Zelensky said. “Of course.”

On Thursday, Zelensky confirmed that Ukrainian investigators will be permitted to access to the site of the strike, and acknowledged that Ukraine did fire an air defense missile. “I don’t know what happened. We don’t know for sure. The world does not know. But I am sure that it was a Russian missile, I am sure that we fired from air defense systems,” Zelensky said.

Only after the investigation would it be possible to draw conclusions about which missile fell on the territory of Poland, he added.

This story has been updated with comments Zelensky made on Thursday

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Poland, NATO say missile strike wasn’t a Russian attack

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PRZEWODOW, Poland (AP) — NATO member Poland and the head of the military alliance both said Wednesday that a missile strike in Polish farmland that killed two people appeared to be unintentional and was probably launched by air defenses in neighboring Ukraine. Russia had been bombarding Ukraine at the time in an attack that savaged its power grid.

“Ukraine’s defense was launching their missiles in various directions, and it is highly probable that one of these missiles unfortunately fell on Polish territory,” said Polish President Andrzej Duda. “There is nothing, absolutely nothing, to suggest that it was an intentional attack on Poland.”

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, at a meeting of the 30-nation military alliance in Brussels, echoed the preliminary Polish findings. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, disputed them and asked for further investigation.

The assessments of Tuesday’s deadly missile landing appeared to dial back the likelihood of the strike triggering another major escalation in the nearly 9-month-old Russian invasion of Ukraine. If Russia had targeted Poland, that could have risked drawing NATO into the conflict.

Still, Stoltenberg and others laid overall but not specific blame on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war.

“This is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility,” Stoltenberg said.

Zelenskyy told reporters he had “no doubts” about a report he received from his top commanders “that it wasn’t our missile or our missile strike.” Ukrainian officials should have access to the site and take part in the investigation, he added.

“Let’s say openly, if, God forbid, some remnant (of Ukraine’s air-defenses) killed a person, these people, then we need to apologize,” he said. “But first there needs to be a probe, access — we want to get the data you have.”

On Tuesday, he called the strike “a very significant escalation.”

Before the Polish and NATO assessments, U.S. President Joe Biden had said it was “unlikely” that Russia fired the missile but added: “I’m going to make sure we find out exactly what happened.”

A Russian Defense Ministry spokesman in Moscow said no Russian strike Tuesday was closer than 35 kilometers (22 miles) from the Ukraine-Poland border. The Kremlin denounced Poland’s and other countries’ initial response and, in rare praise for a U.S. leader, hailed Biden’s “restrained, much more professional reaction.”

“We have witnessed another hysterical, frenzied, Russo-phobic reaction that was not based on any real data,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Later Wednesday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Polish ambassador in Moscow; the discussion reportedly lasted about 20 minutes.

The Polish president said the missile was probably a Russian-made S-300 dating from the Soviet era. Ukraine, once part of the Soviet Union, fields Soviet- and Russian-made weaponry and has also seized many more Russian weapons while beating back the Kremlin’s invasion forces.

Russia’s assault on power generation and transmission facilities Tuesday included Ukraine’s western region bordering Poland. Ukraine’s military said 77 of the more than 90 missiles fired were brought down by air defenses, along with 11 drones.

The countrywide bombardment by cruise missiles and exploding drones clouded the initial picture of what happened in Poland.

“It was a huge blast, the sound was terrifying.” said Ewa Byra, the primary school director in the eastern village of Przewodow, where the missile struck. She said she knew both men who were killed — one was the husband of a school employee, the other the father of a former pupil.

Another resident, 24-year-old Kinga Kancir, said the men worked at a grain-drying facility.

“It is very hard to accept,” she said. “Nothing was going on and, all of a sudden, there is a world sensation.”

In Europe, NATO members called for a thorough investigation and criticized Moscow.

“This wouldn’t have happened without the Russian war against Ukraine, without the missiles that are now being fired at Ukrainian infrastructure intensively and on a large scale,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Swaths of Ukraine were without power after the aerial assault. Zelenskyy said about 10 million people lost electricity, but tweeted overnight that 8 million were subsequently reconnected. Previous strikes had already destroyed an estimated 40% of the country’s energy infrastructure.

Ukraine said the bombardment was the largest on its power grid so far.

A Washington-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, said Ukraine’s downing of so many Russian missiles Tuesday “illustrates the improvement in Ukrainian air defenses in the last month,” which are being bolstered with Western-supplied systems. Sweden said Wednesday that an air defense system with ammunition would form part of its latest and largest package of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, worth $360 million.

The U.S. has been Ukraine’s largest supporter, providing $18.6 billion in weapons and equipment. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the flow of weapons and assistance would continue “throughout the winter so that Ukraine can continue to consolidate gains and seize the initiative on the battlefield.”

Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he tried to speak to his Russian counterpart Wednesday, but those efforts were not successful. Milley didn’t elaborate on the efforts, but the lack of a conversation, at a time when there were questions about whether Russia had struck a NATO ally, raises concerns about high-level U.S.-Russian communications in a crisis.

At the United Nations, the organization’s political chief said the missile strike in Poland was “a frightening reminder” of the need to prevent any more escalation of the war.

As long as the fighting continues, Rosemary DiCarlo warned the U.N. Security Council, “the risks of potentially catastrophic spillover remain all too real.”

The Russian attacks followed days of euphoria in Ukraine sparked by one of its biggest military successes — the retaking last week of the southern city of Kherson.

With its battlefield losses mounting, Russia has increasingly resorted to targeting Ukraine’s power grid as winter approaches.

Russian attacks in the previous 24 hours killed at least six civilians and wounded another 17, a senior official, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, said Wednesday.

Lviv Gov. Maksym Kozytskyy said two of three Russian missiles hit critical energy infrastructure in the western province. Power was restored to about 95% of the province, he said, but only 30% of consumers can use electricity at the same time.

Power shortages caused extensive train delays extending into Wednesday, but there were no cancellations because diesel locomotives were pressed into service, rail officials said.

Kyiv resident Margina Daria said Tuesday’s strikes knocked out cellphone service in her area.

“We have already adapted to life without light, because we have scheduled outages every day, but without communication it was quite disturbing,” she said. “There was no way to even tell our families that we were OK.”

___

AP journalists Vanessa Gera and Monika Scislowska in Warsaw; Lorne Cook in Brussels; John Leicester in Kyiv, Ukraine; Yuras Karmanau in Tallinn, Estonia; Zeke Miller in Nusa Dua, Indonesia; Michael Balsamo and Lolita Baldor in Washington; Elise Morton in London; Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations; and James LaPorta in Wilmington, North Carolina, contributed.

___

Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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Kherson Residents Tell of Torture, Abuse During Russian Occupation

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KHERSON, Ukraine—Residents of the southern city of Kherson told of torture and killing by Russian soldiers during Moscow’s nine-month occupation of the Ukrainian city, while world leaders grappled with the fallout of a missile crash in neighboring Poland during a wave of Russian strikes across Ukraine.

Russia unleashed one of the biggest barrages of the war on Tuesday, firing 96 missiles at Ukrainian cities after being forced to withdraw from Kherson last week in a major blow for Moscow.

Ukrainian air defenses shot down 77 missiles and 10 Iranian-made drones, according to the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces.

A missile landed in a Polish village near the Ukrainian border, killing two farmworkers and raising fears of a wider conflagration.

Top North Atlantic Treaty Organization officials said Wednesday that the missile was likely a Russian-made weapon fired by a Ukrainian air-defense system, and that there was no evidence it was directed there intentionally. Polish President

Andrzej Duda

said Wednesday that Ukraine was defending itself and placed blame on Russia.

Preliminary U.S. assessments also indicated the missile that landed in Poland was from a Ukrainian air-defense system, according to two senior Western officials, while President Biden said at the G-20 summit in Indonesia that it was unlikely to have been fired from Russia.

A residential building in Kyiv that was hit by fragments of a missile during a Russian barrage on Tuesday.



Photo:

Serhii Korovayny for The Wall Street Journal

Preliminary U.S. assessments indicate the missile that landed in Poland was from a Ukrainian air-defense system.



Photo:

KACPER PEMPEL/REUTERS

Ukrainian President

Volodymyr Zelensky

blamed Russia late Tuesday, saying Russian missiles hit Poland, while the Russian government denied any responsibility for the strikes.

While investigations continued into the origin of the missile, repair crews in Ukraine were working to fix infrastructure damaged in Tuesday’s attack, which left about 10 million Ukrainians without electricity. The missiles also hit residential buildings near Kyiv’s government district and disrupted communications across the country.

The head of Ukraine’s electricity-transmission-system operator, Ukenergo, told a Ukrainian news broadcast that the coming days would be difficult, warning emergency shutdowns were necessary to stabilize the grid.

Russia has increasingly targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as it faces setbacks on the battlefield. During their retreat from Kherson, Russian forces knocked out power, heating, water and cell reception in the city.

Meanwhile, the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said Russian troops were fortifying defensive lines on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, which became the new front line in the south following the Russian withdrawal. Ukrainian forces shelled Russian positions on the eastern bank of the river and in the area of the Kinburn Spit on Tuesday, according to the southern operational command.

Less than a week since jubilant residents welcomed the return of Ukrainian troops to Kherson, residents were taking stock of the occupation.

Russians detained and abused people in Kherson during their occupation of the city, residents say.



Photo:

VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS

Vitaliy Shevchenko, 66, said Russian troops had shot his neighbor multiple times in the chest after he insulted one of them.

Mykola Makarenko said he knew from the start of the occupation he was likely to be a target. He had served in the Ukrainian army, fighting against Russian-backed forces in the east of the country in a conflict that has dragged on since 2014.

The 44-year-old said he couldn’t flee Kherson because a friend had seen his name on a list of wanted men at a Russian checkpoint. He spent the subsequent months staying with different friends, moving every few weeks and avoiding Russian checkpoints. In August, however, Russians stopped the car Mr. Makarenko was traveling in and detained him.

For the next 16 days, Mr. Makarenko said he was tortured by Russian soldiers who broke his jaw and four of his ribs, and scratched a letter Z onto his leg with a knife.

“I’m waiting to see my family,” he said. “Then I’ll rejoin the military and get vengeance.”

Following the recapture of Kherson, Mr. Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had uncovered evidence of hundreds of war crimes. The Kremlin has repeatedly dismissed such accusations.

Kherson residents gathered to receive aid in the city’s central square this week.



Photo:

Virginie NGUYEN HOANG for The Wall Street Journal

Lina Naumova, a popular TikTok blogger, said she continued to post messages like “Kherson will never be Russian” for months after the occupation began. On Aug. 23, an unmarked sedan pulled up outside her home and three Russian soldiers began searching for Ukrainian symbols and weapons.

Then they put her in the car with them. On the way, she said, they put a bag over her head. She thinks they took her to a local jail, but isn’t sure.

For 11 days, Ms. Naumova said she was held in isolation and repeatedly questioned about transactions on her bank card. The soldiers demanded to know who else published anti-Russian blogs from Kherson.

As they searched her phone, she saw a conversation she had with a Ukrainian newspaper. She grabbed the phone and quickly deleted it, she said. In response, the soldiers tied her hands behind her back, poured water on her and attached cables to her fingers, though they didn’t turn the electricity on.

They told Ms. Naumova, 67, they wouldn’t beat a woman her age, but made loud noises around her and screamed at her, before moving her to a basement. Once, a soldier slapped her, she said.

After 11 days, she was taken to a room and forced to record an apology to everyone she offended, saying she was sorry for criticizing the Russian army and that Crimea is Russia. She had to record it five times before they were satisfied, she said. Then they took her home, but kept her passport.

Write to Ian Lovett at ian.lovett@wsj.com and Isabel Coles at isabel.coles@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Polish president says ‘no indication’ missile in Poland was deliberate attack

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Bali, Indonesia
CNN
 — 

Polish President Andrzej Duda said the missile that killed two people in eastern Poland on Tuesday was likely fired by Ukrainian forces defending against a wave of Russian missile strikes, and that the incident appeared to be an accident.

“There is no indication that this was an intentional attack on Poland. Most likely, it was a Russian-made S-300 rocket,” Duda said in a tweet Wednesday. He later told a press conference that there was a “high chance” it was an air defense missile from the Ukrainian side and likely had fallen on Polish territory in “an accident” while intercepting incoming Russian missiles.

Duda’s comments were in line with those of two officials briefed on initial US assessments, who told CNN it appears the missile that originated in Ukraine, even though it was Russian-made.

CNN has not confirmed the type of missile that landed in Poland. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have used Russian-made munitions during the nine-month conflict, including the S-300 surface to air missile system, which Kyiv has deployed as part of its air defenses. These older-generation weapons systems date back to the period when both Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union.

The missile landed outside the rural Polish village of Przewodow, about four miles (6.4 kilometers) west from the Ukrainian border on Tuesday afternoon, roughly the same time as Russia launched its biggest wave of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in more than a month.

The US officials said Wednesday that US assessment is what President Joe Biden appeared to be alluding to in earlier remarks when he said it was “unlikely” the missile originated in Russia. The intelligence assessments were discussed at an emergency meeting called by Biden on the margins of the G20 summit in Bali.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also said there was no indication the incident was the result of a deliberate attack.

“Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by the Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks,” Stoltenberg told a press conference following an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels Wednesday.

“But let me be clear, this is not Ukraine’s fault,” he said. “Russia bears ultimate responsibility, as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.”

Stoltenberg added that “we have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATO.”

A joint statement following the emergency meeting at the G20 was deliberately ambiguous when it came to the incident, putting far more focus on the dozens of strikes that happened in the hours before the missile crossed into Poland.

The Associated Press reported Wednesday that three US officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces in an attempt to intercept an incoming Russian strike. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, according to the AP.

A spokesperson with the US National Security Council declined to comment on the AP report. “We have no comment and will not be confirming this report. As the President said today, we support Poland’s ongoing investigation to figure out exactly what happened,” the spokesperson said.

Earlier, Biden said preliminary information suggests it is unlikely the missile that landed in Poland was fired from Russia after consulting with allies at the G20 Summit in Bali.

“I don’t want to say that [it was fired from Russia] until we completely investigate,” Biden went on. “It’s unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia. But we’ll see.”

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Russia doesn’t have “any relation” with the missile incident in Poland, and that some leaders have made statements without understanding “what actually happened.”

“The Poles had every opportunity to immediately report that they were talking about the wreckage of the S-300 air defense system missile. And, accordingly, all experts would have understood that this could not be a missile that had any relation with the Russian Armed Forces,” Peskov said during a regular call with journalists.

“We have witnessed another hysterical frenzied Russophobic reaction, which was not based on any real evidence.

“High-ranking leaders of different countries made statements without any idea about what actually happened.”

These older-generation weapons systems date back to the period when both Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union.

In a statement to CNN on Wednesday, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not explicitly deny reports the missile originated in Ukraine but emphasized Russia’s responsibility for starting the war.

“There is only one logic to be followed,” Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Office of the Ukrainian President, said. “The war was started and is being waged by Russia. Russia is massively attacking Ukraine with cruise missiles. Russia has turned the eastern part of the European continent into an unpredictable battlefield. Intent, means of execution, risks, escalation – it is all coming from Russia alone.”

“And there can be no other explanation for any missile incident here. So when an aggressor country launches a deliberate, massive missile strike against a large country on the European continent with its obsolete Soviet-era weapons (Kh-class missiles), tragedy sooner or later occurs on the territories of other states as well.”

A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force said on national television Wednesday that it will “do everything” to facilitate a Polish investigation into the strike.

“What happened was the Air Defense Force repelling the air attack,” Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for Air Force Command Ukraine, said. “What happened next – whether it was a Russian missile, or this was the wreckage of both rockets falling – this has to be inspected at the site. And that is what is happening right now.”

He added that “what happened yesterday is obviously the consequences of the war.”

Russia unleashed a huge barrage of 85 missiles on Ukraine Tuesday, predominantly targeting energy infrastructure. The bombardment caused city blackouts and knocked out power to 10 million people nationwide.

Zelensky later confirmed on Twitter that power had been restored to eight million consumers. “Supply to 8 million consumers has already been restored. Power engineers and repairmen will work all night. Thanks to everyone!”

Ukrainians across the country were expected to face further scheduled and unscheduled power cuts Wednesday.

“Massive missile strikes on November 15 on the energy infrastructure and cold weather further complicated the situation with the power system,” the state energy company NPC Ukrenergo said in a statement.

“Please prepare for longer power cuts: stock up on water, charge your devices and power banks in advance to stay in touch with your loved ones.”

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Poland missile explosion: World leaders hold emergency meeting as ‘Russian-made’ weapon kills two in Przewodow

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CNN
 — 

World leaders gathering at the G20 summit in Bali are attempting to diffuse a potential escalation in the months-long Ukraine war after a “Russian-made” missile struck NATO-member Poland killing two people.

The missile landed outside the rural Polish village of Przewodow, about four miles (6.4 kilometers) west from the Ukrainian border on Tuesday afternoon, roughly the same time as Russia launched its biggest wave of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in more than a month.

The circumstances surrounding the incident, which marks the first time a NATO country has been directly hit during the almost nine-month conflict, remain unclear. It is not known who fired the missile, or precisely where it was fired from, though the Polish Foreign Ministry has described it as “Russian-made.”

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have used Russian-made munitions during the conflict, with Ukraine deploying Russian-made missiles as part of their air defense system.

Speaking to reporters after holding an emergency meeting with G7 and NATO leaders on the sidelines of the G20 summit, US President Joe Biden said preliminary information suggested it was “unlikely” the missile was fired from within Russia, but was unable to say conclusively until the investigation was complete.

“We agreed to support Poland’s investigation into the explosion … And I’m going to make sure we figure out exactly what happened,” Biden said, adding the leaders offered sympathy over the death of two people. “Then we’re going to collectively determine our next step as we investigate and proceed. There was total unanimity among the folks at the table,” he added.

Following Biden’s statement, a NATO military official told CNN the missile had been tracked by an alliance aircraft flying above Polish airspace at the time of the blast.

“Intel with the radar tracks [of the missile] was provided to NATO and Poland,” the NATO military official added. The NATO official did not say who launched the missile, or where it was fired from.

The missile strike within Poland’s borders on Tuesday “would not have happened without Russia’s horrific missile attacks against Ukraine,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said in a statement online Wednesday.

“The G7 and present NATO members convened a meeting this morning in Bali during the G20 to discuss the incident in Poland last night. We are united in our message that we first need to establish the facts and therefore support Poland’s investigation,” Rutte wrote.

In comments earlier Tuesday, Polish President Andrzej Duda noted that while it was not clear who launched the missile, it was “most likely” made in Russia. “We are working calmly and in a very calm manner,” Duda said during an address from the Bureau of National Security in Warsaw.

The Kremlin has denied involvement in the explosion, with Russia’s Defense Ministry calling the reports by Polish media, who first reported the deaths,”a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation,” according to a short statement late Tuesday.

It added that the photos of wreckage published by Polish media “from the scene in the village of Przewodow have nothing to do with Russian weapons.”

The Russian mission at the United Nations on Wednesday said “the incident in Poland is an attempt to provoke a direct military clash between NATO and Russia,” adding the incident would be the focus of attention at the UN Security Council meeting later in the day.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Tuesday that evidence suggests the missile that landed in Przewodów was a “single act” and there is no evidence of further missile strikes.

But while urging calm, Morawiecki said Poland would increase its military readiness and was contemplating the activation of Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. Article 4 is a consultation method that allows members of the 30-country alliance to bring an issue – usually about security – for discussion at the North Atlantic Council, its decision-making body.

Whatever the outcome of the Polish-led investigation, the incident has reinforced longstanding concerns related to the risk of battlefield miscalculation triggering NATO-Russian conflict.

Witness to the blast described hearing a terrifying “whoosh” as the projectile flew over the town and the force of the explosion shook nearby windows.

Video taken by a resident, which was geolocated and confirmed by CNN, shows a large smoke plume in the center of the village.

At the site of the explosion, local media showed an image of a crater and upturned farm vehicle. CNN cannot independently confirm the photos.

In his address, Duda said the US would send experts to investigate the site as part of joint operation.

Speaking after a call with Duda Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said it was “important that all facts are established.”

“I offered my condolences for the loss of life. NATO is monitoring the situation and Allies are closely consulting. Important that all facts are established,” said Stoltenberg in a statement.

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Poland: Russian-made missile fell on our country, killing 2

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KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Poland said early Wednesday that a Russian-made missile fell in the eastern part of the country, killing two people in a blast that marked the first time since the invasion of Ukraine that Russian weapons came down on a NATO country.

Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy decried the strike as “a very significant escalation” of the war.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the government was investigating and raising its military preparedness.

A statement from the Polish Foreign Ministry identified the missile as being made in Russia. But President Andrzej Duda was more cautious about its origin, saying that officials did not know for sure who fired it or where it was made. He said it was “most probably” Russian-made but that is being still verified.

Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called an emergency meeting of the alliance’s envoys to discuss the events close to the Ukrainian border in Poland.

Poland’s statement did not address the circumstances of the strike, including whether it could have been a targeting error or if the missile could have been knocked off course by Ukrainian missile defenses.

If Russia had deliberately targeted Poland, it would risk drawing the 30-nation alliance into the conflict at a time when it is already struggling to fend off Ukrainian forces.

Polish media reported that the strike took place in an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a village near the border with Ukraine.

The Russian Defense Ministry denied being behind “any strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border” and said in a statement that photos of purported damage “have nothing to do” with Russian weapons.

Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau summoned the Russian ambassador and “demanded immediate detailed explanations,” the government said.

On Tuesday, Russia pounded Ukraine’s energy facilities with its biggest barrage of missiles yet, striking targets across the country and causing widespread blackouts.

The barrage also affected neighboring Moldova. It reported massive power outages after the strikes knocked out a key power line that supplies the small nation, an official said.

The missile strikes plunged much of Ukraine into darkness and drew defiance from Zelenskyy, who shook his fist and declared: “We will survive everything.”

In his nightly address, the Ukrainian leader said the strike in Poland offered proof that “terror is not limited by our state borders.”

“We need to put the terrorist in its place. The longer Russia feels impunity, the more threats there will be for everyone within the reach of Russian missiles,” Zelenskyy said.

Russia fired at least 85 missiles, most of them aimed at the country’s power facilities, and blacked out many cities, he said.

The Ukrainian energy minister said the attack was “the most massive” bombardment of power facilities in the nearly 9-month-old Russian invasion, striking both power generation and transmission systems.

The minister, Herman Haluschenko, accused Russia of “trying to cause maximum damage to our energy system on the eve of winter.”

The aerial assault, which resulted in at least one death in a residential building in the capital, Kyiv, followed days of euphoria in Ukraine sparked by one of its biggest military successes — the retaking last week of the southern city of Kherson.

The power grid was already battered by previous attacks that destroyed an estimated 40% of the country’s energy infrastructure. Zelenskyy said the number of Ukrainians without power had fallen from 10 million to 2 million by Tuesday evening.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not commented on the retreat from Kherson since his troops pulled out in the face of a Ukrainian offensive. But the stunning scale of Tuesday’s strikes spoke volumes and hinted at anger in the Kremlin.

By striking targets in the late afternoon, not long before dusk began to fall, the Russian military forced rescue workers to labor in the dark and gave repair crews scant time to assess the damage by daylight.

More than a dozen regions — among them Lviv in the west, Kharkiv in the northeast and others in between — reported strikes or efforts by their air defenses to shoot missiles down. At least a dozen regions reported power outages, affecting cities that together have millions of people. Almost half of the Kyiv region lost power, authorities said.

Zelenskyy warned that more strikes were possible and urged people to stay safe and seek shelter.

“Most of the hits were recorded in the center and in the north of the country. In the capital, the situation is very difficult,” said a senior official, Kyrylo Tymoshenko.

He said a total of 15 energy targets were damaged and claimed that 70 missiles were shot down. A Ukrainian Air Force spokesman said Russia used X-101 and X-555 cruise missiles.

As city after city reported attacks, Tymoshenko urged Ukrainians to “hang in there.”

With its battlefield losses mounting, Russia has increasingly resorted to targeting Ukraine’s power grid, seemingly hoping to turn the approach of winter into a weapon by leaving people in the cold and dark.

Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra took to a bomb shelter in Kyiv after meeting his Ukrainian counterpart and, from his place of safety, described the bombardment as “an enormous motivation to keep standing shoulder-to-shoulder” with Ukraine.

The strikes came as authorities were already working furiously to get Kherson back on its feet and beginning to investigate alleged Russian abuses there and in the surrounding area.

The southern city is without power and water, and the head of the U.N. human rights office’s monitoring mission in Ukraine, Matilda Bogner, on Tuesday decried a “dire humanitarian situation” there.

Speaking from Kyiv, Bogner said her teams are looking to travel to Kherson to try to verify allegations of nearly 80 cases of forced disappearances and arbitrary detention.

The head of the National Police of Ukraine, Igor Klymenko, said authorities are to start investigating reports from Kherson residents that Russian forces set up at least three alleged torture sites in now-liberated parts of the wider Kherson region.

The retaking of Kherson dealt another stinging blow to the Kremlin. Zelenskyy likened the recapture to the Allied landings in France on D-Day in World War II, saying both were watershed events on the road to eventual victory.

But large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine remain under Russian control, and fighting continues.

In other developments, leaders of most of the world’s economic powers were drawing closer to approval of a declaration strongly denouncing Russia’s invasion.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden and Zelenskyy pressed fellow G20 leaders at the summit in Indonesia for a robust condemnation of Russia’s nuclear threats and food embargoes. More discussion and a possible vote come Wednesday.

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Associated Press writers Joanna Kozlowska in London; Jamey Keaten in Geneva; Mike Corder in The Hague, Netherlands; Hanna Arhirova in Kherson, Ukraine; Yuras Karmanau in Tallinn, Estonia; Vanessa Gera and Monika Scislowska in Warsaw, Poland; Raf Casert and Lorne Cook in Brussels; and Nomaan Merchant in New York contributed to this report.

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Russia presses Donbas offensive as Polish leader visits Kyiv

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KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia pressed its offensive in eastern Ukraine on Sunday as Poland’s president traveled to Kyiv to support the country’s European Union aspirations, becoming the first foreign leader to address the Ukrainian parliament since the start of the war.

Lawmakers stood to applaud President Andrzej Duda, who thanked them for the honor of speaking where “the heart of a free, independent and democratic Ukraine beats.” Duda received more applause when he said that to end the conflict, Ukraine did not need to submit to conditions given by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Unfortunately, in Europe there have also been disturbing voices in recent times demanding that Ukraine yield to Putin’s demands,” he said. “I want to say clearly: Only Ukraine has the right to decide about its future. Only Ukraine has the right to decide for itself.”

Duda’s visit, his second to Kyiv since April, came as Russian and Ukrainian forces battled along a 551-kilometer (342-mile) wedge of the country’s eastern industrial heartland.

After declaring full control of a sprawling seaside steel plant that was the last defensive holdout in the port city of Mariupol, Russia launched artillery and missile attacks in the region, known as the Donbas, seeking to expand the territory that Moscow-backed separatists have held since 2014.

To bolster its defenses, Ukraine’s parliament voted Sunday to extend martial law and the mobilization of armed forces for a third time, until Aug. 23.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stressed that the 27-member EU should expedite his country’s request to join the bloc as soon as possible due to the invasion. Ukraine’s potential candidacy is set to be discussed at a Brussels summit in late June.

France’s European Affairs minister Clement Beaune on Sunday told Radio J it would be a “long time” before Ukraine gains EU membership, estimating it could take up to two decades.

“We have to be honest,” he said. “If you say Ukraine is going to join the EU in six months, or a year or two, you’re lying.”

But Poland is ramping up efforts to win over other EU members who are more hesitant about accepting the war-ravaged country into the bloc. Zelenskyy said Duda’s visit represented a “historic union” between Ukraine, which declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, and Poland, which ended communist rule two years earlier.

“This is really a historic opportunity not to lose such strong relations, built through blood, through Russian aggression,” Zelenskyy said. “All this not to lose our state, not to lose our people.”

Poland has welcomed millions of Ukrainian refugees and become a gateway for Western humanitarian aid and weapons going into Ukraine. It is also a transit point into Ukraine for some foreign fighters, including from Belarus, who have volunteered to fight the Russian forces.

“Despite the great destruction, despite the terrible crime and great suffering that the Ukrainian people suffered every day, the Russian invaders did not break you. They failed at it. And I believe deeply that they will never succeed,” Duda told the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s legislature.

Duda also credited the U.S. and President Joe Biden for unifying the West in supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions against Moscow.

“Kyiv is the place from which one clearly sees that we need more America in Europe, both in the military and in this economic dimension,” said Duda, a right-wing populist leader who clearly preferred former President Donald Trump over Biden during the 2020 election.

On the battlefield, Russia appeared to have made slow grinding moves forward in the Donbas in recent days. It intensified efforts to capture Sievierodonetsk, the main city under Ukrainian control in Luhansk province, which together with Donetsk province makes up the Donbas. The Ukrainian military said Sunday that Russian forces had mounted an unsuccessful attack on Oleksandrivka, a village outside of Sievierodonetsk.

Luhansk Gov. Serhii Haidai said the sole working hospital in the city has only three doctors and enough supplies for 10 days.

In a general staff morning report, Russia also said it was preparing to resume its offensive toward Slovyansk, a city in Donetsk province that is critical to Russia’s objective of capturing all of eastern Ukraine and saw fierce fighting last month after Moscow’s troops backed away from Kyiv.

In Enerhodar, a Russian-held city 281 kilometers (174 miles) northwest of Mariupol, an explosion Sunday injured the Moscow-appointed mayor at his residence, Ukrainian and Russian news agencies reported. Ukraine’s Unian news agency said a bomb planted by “local partisans” wounded 48-year-old Andrei Shevchuk, whose home is near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is Europe’s largest and employs many Enerhodar residents.

With Russia claiming to have taken prisoner nearly 2,500 Ukrainian fighters from the Mariupol steel plant, concerns grew about their fate and the future facing the remaining residents of the city, now in ruins with more than 20,000 feared dead.

Relatives of the fighters have pleaded for them to be given rights as prisoners of war and eventually returned to Ukraine. Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said Saturday that Ukraine “will fight for the return” of every one of them.

The complete seizure of the Azovstal steel plant, a symbol of Ukrainian tenacity. gave Putin a badly wanted victory in the war he began nearly three months ago, on Feb. 24.

Denis Pushilin, the pro-Kremlin head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, vowed that the Ukrainian fighters from the plant would face tribunals. He said foreign nationals were among them, although he didn’t provide details.

Ukraine’s government has not commented on Russia’s claim of capturing Azovstal. Ukraine’s military had told the fighters their mission was complete and they could come out. It described their extraction as an evacuation, not a mass surrender.

Mariupol Mayor Vadim Boychenko warned that the city faced a health and sanitation “catastrophe” from mass burials in shallow pits as well as the breakdown of sewage systems. An estimated 100,000 of the 450,000 people who lived in Mariupol before the war remain.

With Russia controlling the city, Ukrainian authorities will likely face delays in documenting any alleged Russian atrocities there, including the bombings of a maternity hospital and a theater where hundreds of civilians had taken cover.

Meanwhile, a Ukrainian court was expected to reach a verdict Monday for a Russian soldier who was the first to go on trial for an alleged war crime. The 21-year-old sergeant, who has admitted to shooting a Ukrainian man in the head in a village in the northeastern Sumy region Feb. 28, could get life in prison if convicted.

Ukrainian Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova has said her office was prosecuting war crimes cases against 41 Russian soldiers for offenses that included bombing civilian infrastructure, killing civilians, rape and looting. Her office has said it was looking into more than 10,700 potential war crimes involving more than 600 suspects, including Russian soldiers and government officials.

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Becatoros reported from Donetsk. Associated Press journalists Yuras Karmanau in Lviv, Andrea Rosa in Kharkiv and other AP staffers around the world contributed.

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US VP Harris embraces call for war crimes probe of Russia

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WARSAW, Poland (AP) — U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday embraced calls for an international war crimes investigation of Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, citing the “atrocities” of bombing civilians, including a maternity hospital.

Speaking alongside Polish President Andrzej Duda at a press conference in Warsaw, where she is demonstrating U.S. support for NATO’s eastern flank allies, Harris expressed outrage over the bombing Wednesday of the maternity hospital and scenes of bloodied pregnant women being evacuated, as well as other attacks on civilians. She stopped short of directly accusing Russia of having committed war crimes.

“Absolutely there should be an investigation, and we should all be watching,” said Harris, noting that the United Nations has already started a process to review allegations. “I have no question the eyes of the world are on this war and what Russia has done in terms of this aggression and these atrocities.”

Harris’ visit to Poland came amid a kerfuffle between Warsaw and Washington over a Polish proposal to send its Soviet-made fighter jets to a U.S. and NATO base in Germany so they could then go to Ukraine. Poland, in turn, would receive American F-16s.

Poland had publicly floated the proposal without first consulting the U.S. Just as Harris arrived in Warsaw late Wednesday, the Pentagon definitively rejected the idea, saying it would run the risk of escalating the Russia-Ukraine war.

At Thursday’s news conference, both Harris and Duda sought to brush aside differences on the fighter jets issue.

“I want to be very clear, the United States and Poland are united in what we have done and are prepared to do to help Ukraine and the people of Ukraine, full stop,” she said.

Duda for his part sidestepped questions about why Poland announced its proposal without first consulting the United States. He stressed his government’s intention was driven by a desire for “NATO as a whole to make a common decision” on the matter.

“In a nutshell we have to be a responsible member of the North Atlantic Alliance,” Duda said.

Harris’ embrace for an investigation of war crimes came after the Biden administration on Wednesday warned that Russia might seek to use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine as the White House rejected Russian claims of illegal chemical weapons development in the country it has invaded.

The White House raised the notion after Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova — without evidence — accused Ukraine of running chemical and biological weapons labs with U.S. support.

The International Criminal Court prosecutor announced last week he was launching an investigation that could target senior officials believed responsible for war crimes, crimes against humanity or genocide amid a rising civilian death toll and widespread destruction of property during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But investigations at the ICC take many years, and relatively few convictions have ever been won. The ICC was set up in 2002 to prosecute war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. The crime of aggression, which can’t be investigated in Ukraine because neither Russia nor Ukraine is a member of the court, was added later.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki called the hospital bombing “horrific” and said the U.S. is going through a “legal review process” to determine whether to label the bombing a war crime.

Duda said “it is obvious to us that in Ukraine Russians are committing war crimes.” He added that in his view the invasion was “bearing the features of a genocide — it aims at eliminating and destroying a nation.”

Harris praised the Polish people for their generosity for taking in nearly 1.5 million refugees since Russia invaded Ukraine last month.

“I’ve been watching or reading about the work of ordinary people doing extraordinary things, and so I bring you thanks from the American people,” Harris said earlier during a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki hours after the U.S. House passed a massive spending bill that includes $13.6 billion in aid for Ukraine and its European allies.

The legislation includes $6.8 billion to care for refugees and other economic aid to allies.

Harris also met Thursday with seven refugees who have fled from Ukraine to Poland since the Russian invasion began. She praised the refugees for their “courage” and said the conversation would help inform U.S. assistance efforts. The group included a Ukrainian advocate for people with disabilities, a Moroccan university student, a professional film producer from Odessa, a Senegalese community leader and teacher, a LGBTQIA+ rights activist from Kyiv, and a Ukrainian energy expert and her young adult daughter.

“We are here to support you, and you are not alone,” Harris told the group. “And I know there’s so much about the experience that you’ve had that has made you feel alone. You are not alone. We around the world are watching.”

The vice president also met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau while in Warsaw. The Canadian leader has been in Europe in recent days meeting with allies about Ukraine. Trudeau credited the Biden administration for rallying Europe’s largely unified response.

“Vladimir Putin totally underestimated the strength and resolve of the Ukrainian people,” Trudeau said. “But he also underestimated the strength and resolve of democracies to stand up in support of Ukraine, (and) in support of those values, and principles that underlie everything we do.”

Harris’ whirlwind visit to Poland and Romania was billed by the White House as a chance for the vice president to consult with two of the leaders from eastern flank NATO nations about the growing humanitarian crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Already, more than 2 million refugees have fled Ukraine — with more than half coming to Poland — and even more expected to arrive in the days ahead.

Duda warned of a “refugee disaster” if Poland doesn’t receive more assistance to help house and feed Ukrainians fleeing the conflict. He said he asked Harris for the U.S. to “speed up” the process for those Ukrainian refugees who would want to go to the U.S. and might have family there.

“The United States is absolutely prepared to do what we can and what we must to support Poland, in terms of the burden that they have taken on,” Harris said.

Harris will travel on Friday to Bucharest, where she will meet Romanian President Klaus Iohannis.

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Miller contributed from Washington. Associated Press writers Mike Corder at The Hague, Netherlands, and Chris Megerian in Washington contributed reporting.

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Macron Meets With Putin as France Tries to Flex Diplomatic Muscle Over Ukraine

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President Biden said Monday that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to deliver Russian natural gas to Germany won’t go forward if Russia invades Ukraine, stepping up pressure to isolate Moscow as French President Emmanuel Macron kicked off a round of shuttle diplomacy aimed at thawing tensions between the Kremlin and the West.

Speaking at a joint news conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Mr. Biden said “there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2” should Moscow invade Ukraine. Mr. Putin has massed more than 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine in what Western officials fear is a prelude to an invasion that would be Europe’s biggest land war since World War II. His demand: that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization scale back its military presence in Eastern Europe to 1997, before most of the eastern countries joined the alliance.

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Europe sidelined as U.S. tries to stop Russia-Ukraine war

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U.S. army soldiers stand in formation during a joint military tactical training exercise Blowback 2016 with Bulgaria’s army at Novo Selo military ground on April 11, 2016.

NIKOLAY DOYCHINOV | AFP | Getty Images

Crisis talks aimed at averting a military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine appear to be faltering, as Western allies prepare for a possible conflict between the neighbors that could be “painful, violent and bloody.”

Western allies are preparing for some kind of military confrontation, with NATO putting more forces on standby and looking to reinforce Eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets. The U.S. Department of Defense, meanwhile, said Monday that about 8,500 American troops are on heightened alert and awaiting orders to deploy to the region in the event that Russia does invade Ukraine.

The 8,500 troops are based in the U.S. and would be part of the NATO Response Force if that group is activated, the U.S. Department of Defense said on Monday.

The NATO Response Force is a 40,000-strong, multinational force made up of land, air, maritime and Special Operations Forces that NATO can deploy quickly, wherever needed. Its overarching purpose is “to provide a rapid military response to an emerging crisis,” NATO says. It has not yet been activated.

Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby stated on Monday that the American forces being put on standby would be in addition to the significant combat-capable U.S. forces already based in Europe “to deter aggression and enhance the alliance’s ability to defend allies and defeat aggression if necessary.”

“Secretary [of Defense Lloyd] Austin has placed a range of units in the United States on a heightened preparedness to deploy, which increases our readiness to provide forces if NATO should activate the NRF or if other situations develop,” the press secretary said. 

If it is activated, Austin’s order would enable the U.S. to rapidly deploy additional brigade combat teams, along with units specializing in logistics, aviation, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, transportation and more, Kirby noted. 

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, meanwhile, warned on Monday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a “painful, violent and bloody, business” and a “disastrous step.”

“The intelligence is very clear that there are 60 Russian battle groups on the border of Ukraine. The plan for a lightning war that could take out Kyiv is one that everybody can see. We need to make it very clear to the Kremlin that that would be a disastrous step,” he told reporters.

Europe in the back seat

But as the U.S. and NATO officials plan for a potential conflict, Europe seems to have been conspicuously absent from many of the proceedings leading up to this point.

Many last-ditch negotiations aimed at preventing tensions between Russia and Ukraine from spilling into conflict have gone ahead without the bloc, leading Eurasia Group’s Emre Peker and Alex Brideau to believe that Europe has been “sidelined on its own turf.”

“The EU has failed to unequivocally rally behind a strategy to counter Russia’s increasingly aggressive posture against Ukraine, and will struggle to do so going forward. That will relegate Brussels to the sidelines as the U.S. and Russia discuss the future of Europe’s security architecture,” they noted on Monday.

Several European officials have complained that the EU has been sidelined during discussions on Ukraine between the U.S. and Russian officials; Ukraine has also complained that it has also been left out of talks in which it is the central focus and concern.

But part of the European Union’s difficulties when it comes to dealing with its bellicose neighbor Russia is that there is division within the bloc over how to deal with Moscow. Some countries take a more dovish stance toward Russia (such as France and Germany), whereas others, such as those in Eastern Europe or those that used to be part of the Soviet Union like the Baltics, are more hawkish.

In addition, the EU has an awkward reliance on Russia for a large chunk (around 40%) of its natural gas supplies, meaning that Russia can use this resource, particularly in winter, to its own advantage. Germany in particular is in a difficult situation because the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is yet to be approved, will transport gas directly into Germany and is designed to boost Russian gas supplies to the continent.

Another part of the problem is that there is no consensus in the EU over its future security landscape. Some countries, like France, are pushing for more strategic autonomy from the U.S. and NATO, while others (again those in Eastern Europe and the Baltics where NATO troops are deployed) are more comfortable with remaining under the aegis of the military alliance.

Europe won’t act ‘unless there’s an invasion’

“Barring invasion, Europe can’t and won’t mobilize,’ Eurasia Group’s analysts warned, predicting that the EU “will struggle to bridge internal divides between Russia hawks and doves over Ukraine tensions.”

“These dynamics will put yet another nail in the coffin of EU defense integration, and exacerbate the bloc’s split into pro-U.S. and more-Europe camps on security,” Peker and Brideau noted, effectively meaning that “U.S.-Russia talks will decide the future of Europe’s security architecture, which the EU will follow.”

Crisis talks between Western officials and Russia have been taking place for a number of weeks now, and follow high-profile discussions between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

Concerns over Russia’s behavior toward Ukraine grew amid reports that it had deployed around 100,000 troops and military hardware to various positions along its border with Ukraine. There have also been some intelligence reports that it is planning to invade.

Russia has denied these reports repeatedly.

In talks with the U.S. and NATO, Russia sought legal assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, as Putin seeks to stop any eastward expansion of the military organization, and pushes NATO to roll back deployments in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. So far, the U.S. and NATO have refused such demands, among others.

As Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the military alliance is not obliged to defend it, posing the question over just how far the U.S. and EU are willing to go to defend the country — one that aspires to both membership of the EU and NATO. Russia vehemently opposes these aspirations.

While the U.S., Europe and NATO have all talked tough when it comes to Russia, vowing “massive consequences” as U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken said on Sunday, if Russia does invade, so far it looks like more sanctions on key Russian sectors would be the primary response deployed by the international community.

While the U.S. and U.K. have sent military equipment to Ukraine to help it defend itself, the response from EU nations has been more nuanced — Germany has refused to provide Ukraine with direct military support and reportedly blocked Estonia from sending German-made weapons to Ukraine.

NATO has itself been bolstering its military capabilities in Eastern Europe by putting forces on standby and deploying more ships and fighter jets to the area. Some European countries, including Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands, have announced their intention to send military hardware to bolster NATO defense capabilities.

Mariana, 52, a marketing researcher who for the past two years has been a volunteer in a Kyiv Territorial Defence unit, trains on a Saturday in a forest on January 22, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Sean Gallup | Getty Images

The Kremlin accused the U.S. and its allies on Monday of escalating East-West tensions by announcing plans to boost NATO forces and the U.S.’ decision to evacuate the families of diplomats from its embassy in Ukraine.

Europe preparing for conflict

The EU said on Monday that it will continue to stand by Ukraine’s side and, despite preparations for conflict, diplomats in Europe continue to push for peace.

A flurry of diplomatic meetings has continued in the region this week, with the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting on Monday and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg holding talks with foreign affairs ministers from Finland and Sweden.

On Monday afternoon, Biden held a video call with a number of European leaders and NATO chief Stoltenberg.

In a statement, the European Commission said the meeting “aimed at coordinating the collective response to the aggressive behaviour of Russia with regards to Ukraine. Leaders shared the assessment on the seriousness of the situation. They wished for diplomacy to succeed but are undertaking preparations for all eventualities.”

It added that it was “working on a wide array of sectoral and individual sanctions in the case of further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine,” as well as working with EU states and allies on preparedness, from energy to cyber-security.

On Monday, the EU announced a new financial aid package for Ukraine of 1.2 billion euros ($1.36 billion) in the form of an emergency financial assistance package and 120 million euros in additional grants. European Commission President Von der Leyen said the aid was aimed at helping Ukraine “address its financing needs due to the conflict,” adding: “Let me be clear once more: Ukraine is a free and sovereign country. It makes its own choices. The EU will continue to stand by its side.”

European leaders are also looking to try their hand at bringing Russia and Ukraine closer together this week, with political advisors from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany due to hold “Normandy format” talks on eastern Ukraine in Paris on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Such talks have in the past produced the so-called ‘Minsk Agreements’ — peace deals to stop the ongoing lower-level conflict in eastern Ukraine — but the accords did not stop ongoing skirmishes and some fighting in the Donbass region between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian troops, and both sides have accused the other of flouting the agreements.

As such, there is not much expectation that the Normandy talks will be fruitful. Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, said that “Normandy and Minsk processes are dead,” with Moscow showing what he said was “zero interest” in the peace talks continuing.

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