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Business

Dow Jones Futures: GM Leads 7 Stocks In Buy Range Amid Choppy Market Rally; Apple Stock, AMD Extend Slump

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Dow Jones futures tilted lower late Tuesday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally saw small declines for the major indexes on Tuesday, though the Nasdaq slashed intraday declines as Treasury yields reversed from pandemic highs. Leading stocks and small caps also did well.




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Dow tech titan Apple (AAPL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) continued to slump Tuesday. Apple stock is living below its 21-day and 50-day moving averages, while AMD stock is also under its 200-day average.

On the bright side, Dow Jones giants Boeing stock, Walt Disney (DIS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) have all found support at key levels in the past couple of days. Boeing (BA) and Goldman stock are actionable now. Disney stock technically is in buy range, but could use a bit more strength.

U.S. Steel (X) and DXC stock broke out Tuesday past buy points. Meanwhile, auto giants General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) also are flashing multiple buy signals after finding key support.

Stock Of The Day In Buy Range While New Entries Loom

Archegos Selling Over?

Meanwhile, Viacom stock, Discovery Communications (DISCA), Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) and Vipshop (VIPS) all bounced Tuesday. All had crashed last week, bottoming intraday Friday. TME stock, ViacomCBS (VIAC) and the others all need a long time to repair their charts, and there’s no guarantee that they won’t resume falling. But it a sign that the forced selling in Archegos Capital Management is largely over.

Boeing, DXC Technology (DXC) and GM stock are on IBD Leaderboard. TME stock is technically on Leaderboard as an earnings options play, but that option is unlikely to be exercised now. Disney stock was Tuesday’s IBD Stock Of The Day. Boeing stock was Monday’s Stock Of The Day.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) and Chewy.com (CHWY) reported earnings late Tuesday. LULU stock fell modestly, sinking further below its 50-day line. Chewy stock jumped, but is likely to remain below that key level as well.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures were 0.1% below fair value. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures sank 0.1%.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live.

Coronavirus News

Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 128.76 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 2.81 million.

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 31.09 million, with deaths above 564,000.

Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally had slim losses on the major indexes Tuesday, while small-cap stocks bounced back. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% in Tuesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index also dipped 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite edged down 0.1% after falling 1% intraday. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose x%.

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped 1 basis point to 1.71% after rising to 1.77% intraday, a 14-month high.

TME stock rose 4.9% and VIPS stock 8.6%. Viacom climbed 3.55% and DISCA stock 5.4%. These Chinese internet and U.S. media plays were big winners until last week, when the Archegos margin calls triggered mass liquidation sales in these stocks and more. After a near-vertical dive, these charts look terrible. Could they come back? Sure, but investors don’t know to what extent the prior runs reflected speculative bets by Archegos and others that aren’t coming back. VIAC stock and Discovery Communications in particular were starting to look like climax runs, which is not usual for slow-growth companies.

Still, if the forced selling is largely over for Archegos, that’s one uncertainty out of the way.

Growth, Sector ETFs

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) rose 2.4%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) climbed 2.1%.  The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) retreated 0.6%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dipped 0.4%, with AMD stock a notable holding%.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 1.05% and Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) climbed 1.3%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) popped 2.5%.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) reversed higher for a 2.9% gain. ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) climbed 1.5%. Both are trying to find support above their 200-day lines but are well below their 21-day and 50-day lines, like many of their holdings.

Apple Stock, AMD

Apple stock fell 1.2% to 119.90. Apple iPhone maker Foxconn signal that chip shortages — affecting consumer electronics as well as the auto industry — could be an issue going forward. AAPL stock has lost sight of its 50-day line, has hit resistance at its 21-day exponential moving average for several weeks and is nearing its 200-day line. While Apple stock hasn’t undercut its early March lows, its relative strength line is at an eight-month low, reflecting underperformance vs. the S&P 500 index.

AMD stock sank 1.5% to 76. Shares have struggled since an early January breakout fizzled. AMD stock is well below its 50-day line while the 21-day line has been a barrier for weeks. The chip giant is now trading below its 200-day line. The RS line for AMD stock is at an eight-month low.

U.S. Steel Powers Higher

U.S. Steel rallied 8.7% to 25.63, clearing a 24.56 buy point from a cup-with-handle base. The handle was rather deep at 24%. U.S. Steel stock has now surged 38% from Thursday’s intraday low, making a pullback more likely. Also, X stock is almost a laggard in its group, with Nucor (NUE), Arcelor Mittal (MT), Ternium (TX) and others already extended.

DXC Stock Breaks Out

DXC stock jumped 9.1% to 31.14, blasting out of a consolidation with a 29.65 handle buy point. The 5% chase zone runs to 31.13, so DXC stock is technically extended by 1 cent. The RS line for DXC stock is at a 52-week high as well. Earnings have fallen for seven straight quarters, but are expected to rebound 44% in the soon-to-start fiscal 2022. Fellow IT services firm Accenture (ACN) broke out on Monday.

Dow Jones Stocks In Buy Zones

Boeing stock edged up 0.6% to 252.01. On March 10, the Dow aerospace giant broke out past a 244.18 cup-base buy point, running all the way to 278.57 on March 15. BA stock round-tripped the xx% gain but found support at its 21-day line and soon nudged back above the still-valid entry. Boeing stock is still in a buy zone and has broken a short downtrend. Investors could view the March 15 peak as the start of a high handle.

Goldman stock climbed 1.9% to 332.01. On Monday, shares of the investment bank tested support at its 10-week line, but closed well off session lows. Goldman Sachs was involved in the Archegos forced selling but reportedly has avoided significant losses. As the second test off the 10-week line, investors can buy GS stock as it rebounds. On Tuesday, Goldman stock broke a short downtrend and xxxxx 21-day line.

Disney stock advanced 0.4% to 185.53, a sliver below its 50-day and 10-week lines. DIS stock is technically still in range from a 183.50 flat-base buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis. But investors probably would like to see a solid bounce from the 10-week line before initiating a position. A solid bounce likely would send DIS stock above its 21-day and break a short downtrend. Disney stock could be starting a new base that could serve as a base-on-base formation.

GM Stock, Ford

GM stock rose 4.6% to 58.51, back above a 57.15 buy point. It’s also back above its 21-day line and breaking a short downtrend. GM stock also is only 6.3% above its 10-week line.

Ford stock climbed 2.55% to 12.47, above buy points at 12.14 and 12.25. It’s also just above its 21-day and clearing a downtrend. F stock is just 3.9% above its 10-week.

Stock Market Rally Analysis

The split stock market rally continues. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 index are still near record highs, with Tuesday’s slim losses near fueled by declines in Apple stock, Microsoft (MSFT) and other big techs.

The Nasdaq rebounded from a 1% loss to slim decline as the 10-year Treasury yield backed off fresh 14-month highs. But it’s still living below its 21-day and 50-day lines, with the former well below the latter.

The Russell 2000 rebounded, but it’s still below the 50-day line, with the 21-day about to undercut the latter.

The best news was in leading stocks. Real economy and reopening plays fared well Tuesday, with DXC Tech and U.S. Steel stock notable examples. Travel stocks did well, including Marriott (MAR). But Ubiquiti (UI) staged an ugly reversal after an impressive Monday breakout.

More importantly, is the recent positive action in leading stocks the start of a lasting uptrend or just another head fake to lure investors back in?

The split market rally has lasted for several weeks, making for a difficult trading environment. Usually, the major indexes and the Russell 2000 are all headed in the same direction. Some may lead and others lag, but an outright divergence is unusual. How will this split personality revolve itself?

The stock market rally could strengthen, with the Dow leading but the Nasdaq reclaiming key levels. Or the Nasdaq could undercut March lows, dragging everything else down. Or we could continue with head fakes up and down for the next several weeks in a sideways, choppy market.

What To Do Now

The stock market rally has given no reason to be heavily invested. Breakouts have had a tough time, with pullbacks and shakeouts almost a given. A few small positions or core long-term holdings are fine, but there’s no reason to step on the gas.

When faced with intraday or daily swings, especially to the downside, make sure to look at weekly charts to put that those moves into perspective.

And there’s nothing wrong with being in cash. But keep an eye on the stock market. It could break out of its choppy range at any point.

Continue to work on your watchlists, gathering stocks from a variety of groups and sectors.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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Technology

Dell G15 5515 hits 3DMark with an AMD Ryzen 7 5800H processor, an NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3060 GPU and 16 GB of RAM

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Technology

NZXT’s first AMD motherboard is sleek and packed with USB ports

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NZXT’s first AMD motherboard is the N7 B550. Like the Intel versions that preceded it, the N7 B550 has a slick design with the option of either a black or white shroud that covers the bulk of the board itself. No doubt NZXT hopes the motherboard’s clean appearance will make it an appealing option for anyone with a windowed PC case like NZXT’s own H series cases.

Beyond its looks, the N7 B550 appears to offer very capable performance if a review from Tom’s Hardware is anything to go by. Designed in collaboration with established motherboard manufacturer ASRock, the motherboard uses the B550 chipset which works with both AMD Ryzen 3000- and 5000-series CPUs and offers PCIe 4.0 support. Integrated fan and RGB controllers mean the components can be managed through NZXT’s Cam software.

The N7 B550 offers a good array of USB ports.
Image: NZXT

In terms of connectivity, there’s an impressive 10 USB ports available on the rear of the motherboard, including a USB Type-C port, and two M.2 slots for NVMe storage. Wireless connectivity includes support for Wi-Fi 6E and Bluetooth 5.2. Check out the review from Tom’s Hardware for a full spec and performance rundown.

It’s a solid debut for a company that’s typically better known for its PC cases and CPU coolers, although its reputation was dented earlier this year when it had to recall one PC case over fire safety concerns. The N7 B550 is available now for $229.99.

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Technology

The street prices of Nvidia and AMD GPUs are utterly out of control

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You might have heard there’s a global semiconductor shortage going on, and that PC graphics cards in particular are nearly impossible to find. What you probably haven’t heard is that the situation has steadily been growing worse — to the point some GPUs are worth triple their MSRP.

Above, you’ll see a photo of two graphics cards, the $499 Nvidia GeForce RTX 3070 and the $579 AMD Radeon RX 6800. In December, I calculated that the true street price of these cards had reached $819 and $841, respectively, or $1,660 for the pair.

That very same photo now contains $2,570 worth of GPUs. That’s not the asking price, mind you; people are actually paying over $1,200 on the open market, on average, for each of these graphics cards. And that isn’t even as bad as it gets.

This past week, I ran the PS5, Xbox Series X, and each of Nvidia’s and AMD’s new graphics cards through an open-source eBay scraper tool to figure out how much they’re worth on average over a seven-day period (big thanks to data analyst Michael Driscoll), then spent a handful of hours validating the results and weeding out fakes.

TL;DR: while the PS5 and Xboxes have actually cooled off a bit, you’ll pay double, even triple for a new AMD or Nvidia GPU.

GPU, PS5, Xbox street prices: March 2021

Item Retail Price Street Price (Dec 2020) Street Price (Mar 2021) Current value
Item Retail Price Street Price (Dec 2020) Street Price (Mar 2021) Current value
Nvidia RTX 3090 $1,499 $2,076 $2,985 1.99x
Nvidia RTX 3080 $699 $1,227 $2,160 3.09x
Nvidia RTX 3070 $499 $819 $1,239 2.48x
Nvidia RTX 3060 Ti $399 $675 $1,226 3.07x
Nvidia RTX 3060 $329 N/A $828 2.5x
AMD RX 6900 XT $999 Did not check $1,841 1.84x
AMD RX 6800 XT $649 $1,232 $1,555 2.4x
AMD RX 6800 $579 $841 $1,331 2.3x
AMD RX 6700 XT $479 N/A $1,169 2.4x
PS5 (disc) $499 $1,024 $833 1.66x
PS5 (digital) $399 $990 $754 1.88x
Xbox Series X $499 $835 $805 1.61x
Xbox Series S $299 $471 $432 1.45x

RX 6700 XT is based on five, not seven days of eBay sales since it’s brand-new.

Frankly, I’m not sure which numbers are the most staggering here. Is it that the supposedly $329 RTX 3060 fetches over $800 on average, or that the RTX 3090 and 3080 are each worth $900 more than they were just three months ago? Or maybe is it that my own 3060 Ti, which I finally managed to snap up for its retail price of $399 after months of trying, could sell for $1,200 now?

I also looked at just how many of these items are actually getting sold on eBay, which can give you an idea of just how skewed the supply / demand equation is. For instance: over a seven-day period, eBay moved 5,284 PS5 consoles, and yet plenty of PS5s that were listed didn’t sell. PS5 scalping is becoming less profitable, eBay’s getting flooded, and things are slowing down.

How many PS5s, Xboxes, and GPUs changed hands?

Item # of listings
Item # of listings
PS5 (disc) 3651
PS5 (digital) 1633
Xbox Series X 1518
Xbox Series S 960
Nvidia RTX 3090 372
Nvidia RTX 3080 384
Nvidia RTX 3070 505
Nvidia RTX 3060 Ti 141
Nvidia RTX 3060 782
AMD RX 6900 XT 106
AMD RX 6800 XT 107
AMD RX 6800 83
AMD RX 6700 XT 98

RX 6700 XT is based on five, not seven days of eBay sales since it’s brand-new.

Yet on the PC GPU side of things, it’s the opposite. Every single GPU seems to be selling unless they’re listed well above the average sale price, and there are a precious few of them to go around — just 83 of AMD’s RX 6800 and 141 of Nvidia’s RTX 3060 Ti changed hands during the same seven-day period as far as I can tell. There’s nothing here to suggest scalping will slow anytime soon.

It doesn’t help that the actual retail prices of these graphics cards have been edging northward, too. Whether it’s a reaction to the Trump tariffs or a blatant attempt to get a piece of the action, the GPUs that I actually do briefly see for sale at Amazon, Best Buy, and the Neweggs of the world are often far, far above the prices that AMD and Nvidia suggest, like an $840 RTX 3070 or a $900 RX 6800. The average list price for a $329.99 RTX 3060 was $471 on launch day. And while Newegg’s raffle originally seemed like a potentially fair way to pay retail, it’s almost become a parody now:

And yet when that $330 video card that you buy for $540 might get scalped for $830, it’s hard to be surprised when MSI and Newegg decide they want to extract a couple hundred dollars of that for themselves.

The question, as always, is when AMD and Nvidia are going to be able to produce more than a trickle of new graphics cards to address this pent-up demand, and I’m afraid the tea leaves aren’t looking particularly good. AMD’s promise of making “significantly more GPUs available” and regularly refreshing stock at its own website haven’t made a meaningful dent so far. And while Nvidia previously warned that it might take until late April for things to turn around, Digitimes now says sources at graphics card manufacturers expect Nvidia’s 30-series GPUs to stay in short supply through the third quarter of 2021.

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Technology

Apple M1 silicon upsets the establishment by skipping past the AMD Ryzen 7 5800X and coming close to Intel Core i7-11700K single-thread performance on PassMark

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Technology

AMD will announce its next Radeon RX 6000 GPU on March 3rd

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Excited to learn about more GPUs you probably won’t be able to buy anytime soon? Us too. And thankfully AMD is about to oblige. After it had more desktop GPUs on the way for the first half of the year, the company announced today it will detail its next Radeon RX 6000 series graphics card on March 3rd at 11AM ET / 8AM PT.

As things currently stand, AMD’s “Big Navi” lineup consists of three models: the RX 6900 XT, RX 6800 XT and RX 6800, priced at $999, $649 and $579 respectively. According to , AMD will announce two GPUs at the event, the RX 6700 XT and RX 6700. The former is expected to compete directly against NVIDIA’s new , which goes on sale at select retailers this Thursday.

Whether you’ll be able to buy them once they go on sale is a tough question to answer. Both AMD and NVIDIA’s new GPUs have been notoriously difficult to track down thanks to a combination of limited supply and an uptick in demand from cryptocurrency miners. Supply shortages have been so bad that NVIDIA recently turned to the almost five-year-old GTX 1050 Ti just to have something to sell to people.

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Technology

Intel’s new desktop GPUs won’t work in AMD systems

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Intel launched its first Iris Xe desktop graphics cards yesterday, but you won’t see them appearing in AMD-powered systems. While Nvidia and AMD’s desktop GPUs typically work across a variety of Intel and AMD processors, Intel’s new desktop GPUs are a little more limited for now.

“The Iris Xe discrete add-in card will be paired with 9th gen (Coffee Lake-S) and 10th gen (Comet Lake-S) Intel® Core™ desktop processors and Intel(R) B460, H410, B365, and H310C chipset-based motherboards and sold as part of pre-built systems,” says an Intel spokesperson in a statement to Legit Reviews. “These motherboards require a special BIOS that supports Intel Iris Xe, so the cards won’t be compatible with other systems.”

One of Intel’s first Iris Xe desktop GPUs.
Image: Intel

The restrictions make more sense when you consider the target market of these first Intel desktop GPUs. Intel is working with Asus and other vendors to sell these cards to system integrators who will bundle them with prebuilt systems. These aren’t GPUs you can just order online, and they’re meant to be specially bundled.

Intel’s idea with its initial Iris Xe desktop GPUs is to simply improve what’s available on mainstream PCs right now. Most standard business-focused PCs ship with integrated graphics, and Intel is trying to offer something that improves multi-display support and hardware acceleration.

These cards aren’t designed to improve gaming or to be used in gaming rigs. Intel is also working on its Xe-HPG architecture that could eventually deliver cards that can compete with AMD and Nvidia. Hopefully these cards won’t be restricted to Intel systems in a similar way, though.

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Business

Dow Jones Futures: GME Stock Rockets On Elon Musk Tweet; Microsoft, AMD, Palantir Are Key Movers

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Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 futures rose slightly late Tuesday, while Nasdaq futures rose solidly, lifted by MSFT stock. The stock market rally had fractional losses Tuesday on the surface, but many leaders had a tough session. Microsoft (MSFT) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) earnings late Tuesday, while Palantir Technologies (PLTR) held its much-anticipated Demo Day.




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Apple (AAPL), and Tesla stock are due Wednesday night.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk kept GameStop (GME) frenzy going overnight, tweeting out “Gamestonk!!” in reference to the Reddit-led mass short squeeze. GME stock skyrocketed more than 50% overnight in still-massive trade. That’s after soaring 93% to 147.98 in Tuesday’s session, a record close. GME stock hit an intraday all-time high of 159.18 on Monday. GameStop is up 685% already this year.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and Dillard’s (DDS), two other short-squeeze plays, jumped 20% Tuesday. BBBY stock kept running overnight.

While tech giants and Tesla stock generally had modest gains, providing support for the major indexes. That masked some losses among leading chip, software, genomics and mining and materials firms.

10 Heavily Shorted Stocks Set For GameStop-Like ‘Squeeze’ Rallies

Key Earnings

Microsoft earnings and sales easily beat views. Microsoft stock rose overnight, signaling a breakout after flirting with a buy point in Tuesday’s session. Amazon.com (AMZN) rose slightly on the Microsoft’s cloud-driven quarter, with AMZN stock near possible early entries.

AMD earnings also easily beat, with the chipmaker also guiding higher. AMD stock tilted lower overnight after some up and down action.

Palantir Demo Day

Palantir Technologies held its much-anticipated Demo Day, where it showcased what its technology could do, including supply chain and data integration. PLTR stock fell modestly overnight. Palantir stock closed down 2.4% to 35.37, just out of range of a 33.60 buy point. But that followed Friday’s 25% spike and Monday’s 11% jump.

Apple, Tesla Earnings On Tap

Looking ahead to Wednesday, Apple stock, Tesla (TSLA), Facebook (FB) and ServiceNow (NOW) are among those reporting. Apple and Tesla stock are in buy range. Facebook stock has crossed over a very early entry. ServiceNow stock is finding support at its 50-day line in a new flat base.

Also, the Federal Reserve meeting concludes Wednesday, with a policy announcement due at 2 p.m. ET. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates and asset purchases unchanged and likely will signal that will remain so for quite some time. It may be a nonevent. Investors will look for hints — if any — about when Fed policymakers might taper bond buys down the road. Commentary about stock and other asset prices would get close attention.

Tesla stock, Apple, AMD, Microsoft, ServiceNow and Palantir stock are on IBD Leaderboard. Apple stock is on SwingTrader. Microsoft stock and ServiceNow are on IBD Long-Term Leaders. AMD and NOW stock are on IBD 50.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures edged up vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.15%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%. Microsoft stock is providing a lift to futures, with several other tech giants also climbing.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live.

Coronavirus News

Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 100.78 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 2.16 million.

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 25.99 million, with deaths above 434,000. New coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and even deaths have fallen sharply over the last couple of weeks, though they remain high.

The U.S. late Tuesday that it will buy another 200 million doses from Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA). It’ll also boost coronavirus vaccine supply to the states by 20% to 10 million a week. After a rocky start, vaccinations have been averaging more than one million a day recently, with expectations that this can ramp up.

Pfizer said it can deliver 200 million doses of its coronavirus vaccine two months earlier than planned. That would be by the end of May.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) expects data from its final-stage coronavirus vaccine data by early next week. CFO Joseph Wolk told CNBC that he’s expecting “robust” results. The J&J Covid vaccine takes just one shot and is easier to store than the two-shot vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech (BNTX) and Moderna. If efficacy and safety data are strong, the FDA could approve the J&J vaccine by early March.

Stock Market Rally

U.S. Stock Market Today Overview
Index Symbol Price Gain/Loss % Change
Dow Jones (0DJIA) 30937.89 -22.11 -0.07
S&P 500 (0S&P5) 3849.55 -5.81 -0.15
Nasdaq (0NDQC ) 13626.07 -9.92 -0.07
Russell 2000 (IWM) 213.31 -1.48 -0.69
IBD 50 (FFTY) 45.47 -0.55 -1.20
Last Update: 4:20 PM ET 1/26/2021

The stock market rally saw slim losses on the major indexes, a quiet session after Monday’s whipsaw action.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 0.1% in Tuesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index dipped 0.15%. The Nasdaq composite edged down 0.1%, while the big-cap Nasdaq 100 edged higher.

Apple and Microsoft, the two biggest megacaps and members of the Dow Jones, S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite, provided support for the major indexes. Amazon stock, Facebook, Tesla and AMD also helped.

Growth Stocks Struggle

Despite the solid performance in tech giants and the continued mania in GME stock and other speculative names, leading stocks tended to lag somewhat.

Beneath the surface, many chip, software and genomics stocks suffered significant losses, though it was bloodletting, not a bloodbath.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) fell 1.2%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) retreated 2.3%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) sank 0.6%, with MSFT stock and ServiceNow notable components. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) 1.7%, with AMD stock an exception to the downward shift.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) sank 3.3% and ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) tumbled 4.9%. SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) pulled back 2.3%, extending losses since spiking on Jan. 6.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Microsoft Earnings

Microsoft earnings rose 34% to $2.03 a share in the fiscal Q2, accelerating for a second straight quarter. Revenue grew 17% to $43.08 billion, the best gain in at least two quarters. Wall Street expected Microsoft earnings of $1.64 a share on sales of $40.18 billion.

The Azure cloud-computing services saw 50% revenue growth, better than expected. Intelligent Cloud revenue, which includes Azure public cloud, server products, GitHub and enterprise services, advanced 23% to $14.60 billion also topping consensus.

Microsoft provided upbeat sales guidance on the conference call.

Microsoft stock rose 4% in overnight trade, signaling a breakout. Shares rose 1.2% to 232.33 on Tuesday. briefly clearing a 232.96 buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis. MSFT stock closed in buy range of some early entries.

Amazon stock advanced 1% in extended trade. Shares rose 1% to 3,326.13 on Tuesday, closing right around a downward-sloping trend line. Clearing that trend line would be an early entry for AMZN stock, along with 3350.75. Amazon stock has an official buy point of 3,552.35. Earnings are next week.

Apple stock and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) also rose about 1% overnight. Both are already in buy zones.

AMD Earnings

AMD earnings jumped 62.5% to 52 cents a share, with sales up 52% to $3.24 billion. Analysts forecast AMD earnings of 47 cents on sales of $3.02 billion.

The graphics and data center chip maker sees Q1 revenue up 79% to $3.2 billion, with full-year sales up 37%.

AMD stock initially rose in extended trade, then reversed slightly lower. Shares edged up 0.6% to 94.71 on Tuesday. That’s slightly above a buy zone from a prior base but in range from the 10-week line. Investors might want to use 99.33 as an entry from a short consolidation.

AMD rival Nvidia (NVDA) was little changed overnight.

Texas Instruments (TXN) and Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) also beat views late Tuesday. But the two chipmakers fell modestly late.

Apple, Tesla, Facebook Earnings

Wednesday night will be busier than Tuesday, with Apple, Tesla, Facebook and ServiceNow among the big names reporting.

Apple earnings will not only have a big impact on AAPL stock, but on the broader iPhone ecosystem, notably chipmakers. Tesla earnings are important, but the focus will likely be on 2021 delivery targets and updates on the Cybertruck and two factories under construction. For the Facebook earnings report, commentary about political headwinds will be key for FB stock and other social media names. ServiceNow is the first business software pure play that has held up well at a time when many software makers have lost ground.

Apple, Tesla, Facebook and ServiceNow stock are all at or near buy points, raising the stakes. Along with Microsoft and AMD, these leaders could have a huge influence on the stock market rally direction.

Stock Market Rally Analysis

The Nasdaq is now 7.8% above its 50-day moving average, down slightly from Monday’s 8.2%.

The rule of thumb is that when the Nasdaq is more than 6% above the 50-day line, the odds of a pullback are relatively high. But, as the stock market rally has shown in recent days and many times over the past several months, the Nasdaq can keep getting more extended. But the more extended the Nasdaq gets, the higher the risk of a pullback, with greater odds that the retreat will be larger.

In late August, Apple and Tesla stock helped push the Nasdaq higher and higher, finally peaking at 11.6% above the 50-day line on Sept. 2. The Nasdaq then plunged 10% over the next three sessions, closing below the 50-day line, with further losses in the next few weeks.

Meanwhile, bullish sentiment is high, while froth is evident in GME stock and others. It’s possible that hot money, at least among retail investors, is concentrating in GME stock and other squeeze plays, moving away from a wider array of leading stocks and even “traditional” speculative names.

Margin debt is up substantially vs. a year earlier, but the increase is still well below extreme levels associated historically with foreshadowing bear markets. However, leveraged ETFs and the explosion of call options suggests that retail investors are more exposed than margin debt alone would indicate.

An extended market rally, high bullish sentiment, crazy stock moves are warning signs. But weakness in leading stocks is the first one that stings.

Sideways action or a modest pullback over a few weeks would be ideal for the stock market rally. But earnings season in the current environment seems likely to be a catalyst for big market gains or losses — or both. As always, the market is going to do what the market is going to do.

What You Should Do Now

Along with the earnings crush, risks are relatively high for leading stocks and overall market rally. Monday’s short-lived market reversal spurred some sharp losses in growth stocks. They generally fared OK before lagging Tuesday. But if the Nasdaq fell 5% in a day or 10%-15 over a week or two, the losses in many growth stocks, especially IPOs and more-speculative names, could be intense. How would your portfolio handle that action?

Continue to analyze your holdings and overall portfolio. Create a game plan for dealing with negative action in your stocks or overall market rally.

Keep in mind that despite rising warning signs, the stock market rally has been faring well overall, though leading stocks bear watching. Investors may want to be more cautious about adding exposure, sell some shares into strength and quickly cut laggards, but it’s not time to be defensive overall. However, dust off those defense plans.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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Dow Jones Futures: Apple, AMD, Nvidia Lead But Stock Market Rally Warnings Grow Louder; Intel Headlines Earnings Movers Late

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Dow Jones futures tilted lower Thursday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The Nasdaq again led the stock market rally to fresh highs, with tech giants Apple stock, Amazon.com (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA) fueling the gains.




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But the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite is becoming increasingly extended, raising the risk of a pullback.

Key Earnings Late

Intel jumped the gun, reporting earnings just before the close. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), IBM (IBM) and CSX (CSX) reported quarterly results late Thursday.

Intel earnings and sales beat views while the Dow Jones chip giant also guided higher for Q1. Incoming CEO Pat Gelsinger, who takes over on Feb. 15, committed to keeping the chip giant’s manufacturing business, despite calls from some investors to shed those assets. Intel stock fell 5% overnight. That was after soaring 6.5% to 62.46 on Thursday, with some of those gains coming in the last few minutes on the early earnings release. Intel stock has been running on the announcement Gelsinger, Intel’s former CTO, will become chief executive. But it’s still far from a buy point.

Intuitive Surgical earnings and revenue rose slightly, rebounding from declines in the prior two quarters. The maker of the da Vinci robotic surgical system gave preliminary revenue figures last week. ISRG stock fell slightly in extended trade after closing up 10 cents at 798.67. Intuitive Surgical stock looks set to dip back below a 792.64 buy point. It could try to find support at the 10-week line again as it builds a short consolidation on top of the prior base.

IBM earnings topped views, but sales missed, once again declining vs. a year earlier. IBM stock tumbled overnight after rising 1.2% to 131.65 on Thursday. The Dow tech giant has a 131.98 buy point in a bottoming base. But it’s still in a long-term downtrend, with weak fundamentals for years.

CSX earnings missed while revenue topped. CSX stock was little changed overnight after closing down 1.7% to 91.61, around its 50-day line. An early January breakout from a flat base quickly fizzled, though the 93.80 buy point is still valid, according to MarketSmith analysis.

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Tech Giants Eye Buy Points

As for other tech giants, Apple (AAPL) rose to just below a buy point. Amazon stock climbed toward possible early entries after regaining its 50-day line Wednesday. AMD stock moved back above key levels and within a prior buy zone. Nvidia stock rebounded from key support, but investors likely want to see a little more strength first.

But looming earnings — as well as the extended stock market rally — complicate buying any of those tech giants. Apple and AMD stock have earnings next week. Amazon is also next week. Nvidia isn’t due for a few weeks, but may move on AMD’s earnings and guidance.

Apple, AMD and Nvidia stock are on IBD Leaderboard. Apple stock is on SwingTrader. AMD stock and Nvidia are on the IBD 50.

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Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.2% vs. fair value, with Intel and IBM stock weighing on the blue-chip index. S&P 500 futures lost 0.15% while Nasdaq 100 futures retreated 0.2%.

Bitcoin continued to slide, falling below $30,000 Thursday night, down $10,000 from a week earlier and the all-time high of nearly $42,000 on Jan. 8.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live.

Coronavirus News

Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 98.04 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 2.09 million.

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 25.18 million, with deaths above 419,000.

Newly reported U.S. Covid cases continue to trend lower, with hospitalizations and deaths also turning down.

U.S. coronavirus vaccinations hit 1.6 million on Wednesday as the pace continues to improve.

President Biden signed new executive orders to increase vaccine production and to impose mask mandates in airplanes and airports, as well as on federal property.

Stock Market Rally

U.S. Stock Market Today Overview
Index Symbol Price Gain/Loss % Change
Dow Jones (0DJIA) 31176.01 -12.37 -0.04
S&P 500 (0S&P5) 3853.07 +1.22 +0.03
Nasdaq (0NDQC ) 13530.92 +73.67 +0.55
Russell 2000 (IWM) 212.51 -1.88 -0.88
IBD 50 (FFTY) 46.12 +0.46 +1.01
Last Update: 4:24 PM ET 1/21/2021

The stock market rally continued to advance, once again led by tech giants.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost a fraction in Thursday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index edged higher. The Nasdaq composite climbed 0.55%. The Nasdaq 100, which includes Apple, Amazon, Intel, AMD and Nvidia stock, popped 0.8%.

Apple stock, a member of the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite, rose 3.7% to 136.87. That’s just below a 138.89 cup-with-handle entry. Apple earnings are on Jan. 27.

Amazon stock climbed 1.3% to 3,306.99, flirting with a trend line starting with the Sept. 2 peak. Investors also could use 3,350.75 as another early entry. Amazon earnings are due Feb. 2.

AMD stock rallied 3.1% to 91.53, back above its 50-day and 21-day lines and back above an 88.82 double-bottom buy point. Shares rose 2% overnight after initially falling following the Intel earnings report. AMD competes with Intel in PC microprocessors and data center chips. AMD earnings are due Jan. 26.

Nvidia advanced 3.75% to 554.70, above its 50-day. Several short-lived moves above the 50-day line have fizzled, so investors likely should wait until NVDA stock decisively clears at least the Jan. 11 high of 558.44 before starting a position.

Key ETFs

Growth stocks were mixed, with chips clearly leading.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) rose 1% to a fresh all-time high, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) dipped 0.2%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) edged down 0.4%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 1.55%, with AMD, Nvidia and Intel stock all notable components.

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Stock Market Rally Extended

The Nasdaq composite is now 8.1% above its 50-day moving average, picking up from Wednesday’s 7.8% and the highest since Sept. 2. (With Apple stock and other tech giants rallying, the big-cap Nasdaq 100 is now 7% above its 50-day.) Further, the Nasdaq is 4.1% above its 21-day exponential moving average, the most since just after the early November follow-through days.

When the Nasdaq is 6% or more above its 50-day line, that’s a yellow flag. The odds of a pullback are higher. The market doesn’t have to retreat right away, but the more extended it gets, the higher the risk of a significant pullback or correction.

In August, the Nasdaq was generally at least 6% above the 50-day, with Apple stock and Tesla (TSLA) leading a big-cap rally. As of Aug. 25, the index was more than 8% extended, but it kept going. It finally reached 11.6% above the 50-day line on Sept. 2. But on Sept. 3, the Nasdaq plunged 5%, wiping out all the gains after Aug. 25. By Sept. 8, the third day of the pullback, the Nasdaq had wiped out essentially all of August’s gains, closing slightly below the 50-day line. It’s a classic example of the stock market rising on a escalator, falling on an elevator.

Ideally, the stock market rally would move sideways or drift lower over several weeks. Last week the major indexes did retreat modestly, but only enough to bring the Nasdaq from extended to “almost extended.” A bigger pullback or longer sideways action would be helpful.

But, as always, the stock market rally is going to do what it’s going to do.

What Investors Should Do

With that in mind, what should investors be doing? Right now, the stock market rally is working. There’s no need to get defensive. Investors may want to consider selling some stocks into strength, taking some profits. You probably should be cautious about starting new positions and adding exposure, especially if you’re on margin. Breakouts that happen just before a market pullback are highly likely to run into trouble.

Most importantly, have a game plan if the stock market rally does reverse. Where will you take partial profits and which stocks are your core holdings? Then stick to those rules.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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