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Science

CNN Exclusive: Secretive process to select astronauts for NASA’s next moon mission

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CNN
 — 

Sometime this spring, NASA will make one of the biggest announcements in its history when it names the initial four-person crew for its flagship Artemis program to return astronauts to the moon for the first time in 50 years.

Scheduled to launch in 2024, Artemis II will be the program’s first crewed mission to orbit the moon, flying farther into space than any humans since the Apollo program and paving the way for the Artemis III crew to walk on the moon in 2025 — all aboard the most powerful rocket ever built and at a price tag that by then will approach $100 billion.

Yet, as publicized as the Artemis II mission is, the process of how its crew will be chosen is so secretive that it remains a mystery even for many on the inside. Other than announcing the astronauts’ nationalities — three Americans, one Canadian — NASA has said almost nothing publicly about who will be selected or how that decision will be made.

CNN spoke with nearly a dozen current and former NASA officials and astronauts to pull back the curtain on the secretive selection process. Based on those interviews, CNN not only gained exclusive insights into how the crew will be selected — it has also whittled down the list of candidates those insiders say are generating the most buzz at NASA.

At the top of everyone’s list for the first Artemis crew is Reid Wiseman, a 47-year-old decorated naval aviator and test pilot who was first selected to be a NASA astronaut in 2009. Wiseman stepped down as chief of the astronaut office in November, a prestigious job historically responsible for selecting the initial crew assignment for each mission, but which also comes with a big catch — the chief isn’t eligible to fly in space.

“Being chief is a crummy, lousy job,” former NASA astronaut Garrett Reisman told CNN. “No one wants it, especially now.”

While it may be a job that few astronauts want ahead of the Artemis crew assignments, it does come with one big advantage.

“Historically, the one benefit of being chief is that, when you did step down, you gave yourself the best flight assignment available at the time. That was kind of an acknowledged perk,” Reisman said. “You did this horrible job on our behalf. Thank you for doing that. Here’s your reward. You get to put yourself in the best seat around.”

Without question, the best open seat right now is on Artemis II — a high-pressure, high-visibility mission that will send four astronauts on a roughly 10-day mission around the moon and back.

INTERACTIVE: Trace the path Artemis I will take around the moon and back

Before stepping down as chief in November, just two days before the launch of Artemis I, the program’s first successful uncrewed test flight, Wiseman made another consequential move in August, when he reversed a previous NASA decision to select the Artemis crew from an initial core group of just 18 astronauts previously deemed the “Artemis Team.”

Instead, Wiseman expanded the group of candidates to all 41 active NASA astronauts.

“The way I look at it, any one of our active astronauts is eligible for an Artemis mission,” Wiseman said at the time. “We just want to assemble the right team for this mission.”

Determining the “right team” for a mission to space has always been a mysterious process, going all the way back to the 1950s. That’s when NASA was making its first flight assignments for its initial Mercury missions, made famous by Tom Wolfe’s book “The Right Stuff.”

Though the criteria may have changed, the process remains incredibly secretive. CNN has learned the decision for who gets to go to the moon will be made by three key people at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, where every US astronaut has lived and trained since 1961.

The first person in the decision process is the chief astronaut, a role currently filled on an acting basis by Wiseman’s deputy, Drew Feustel. Sources told CNN that the chief, whether it’s Feustel or someone else, will take their initial recommendations to the head of the Flight Operations Directorate, Norm Knight, and then on to the director of Johnson Space Center, Vanessa Wyche, who is responsible for signing off on the final four selections.

Cracking the code on how that decision is made is as complex as spaceflight itself.

“To this day, it’s a dark area,” former NASA astronaut Mike Mullane told CNN. “It’s terra incognita (unknown territory). Nobody knows! At least not in our era they didn’t.”

What is known is that NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, a former Democratic senator from Florida, will have no role in the process, something he confirmed for the first time to CNN earlier in January when he said that the space agency’s Washington leadership will “stay out of the selection” of the Artemis II crew.

“That is done by the people at the Johnson Space Center. They will make the decision,” Nelson told CNN. “I do not know if they’ve decided who the crew is, nor should I.”

The only thing set in stone is that the Artemis II crew will consist of three American astronauts and one Canadian, terms that were cemented in a 2020 treaty between the two countries. From the beginning, NASA has also emphasized the need for a program named after Apollo’s twin sister in Greek mythology, Artemis, to have a crew with a heavy mix of gender, racial and professional diversity.

NASA has a far more diverse pool of astronauts to choose from now than during the Mercury program, when all seven astronauts were White, male, military test pilots. More than a third of the Artemis generation’s 41 astronauts are women and 12 are people of color.

The Artemis generation of astronauts is also professionally diverse, with only 16 pilots in its ranks. The rest are “mission specialists” with expertise in biology, geography, oceanography, engineering and medicine.

Nearly a dozen current and former NASA officials and astronauts told CNN they anticipated multiple test pilots being named to the crew of Artemis II, since the mission marks the first crewed test flight to the moon since the Apollo program.

“Just having the courage to go in there and be the first ones and be cool about it, that does take a certain amount of skill and experience and maturity,” said Reisman, the former astronaut. “We’re going beyond Low Earth Orbit for the first time in a very long time, on only the second flight of this vehicle.”

If Wiseman, a White man, is selected, that means the other spots will almost certainly need to go to at least one woman and at least one person of color.

People familiar with the process tell CNN that along with Wiseman, there are a handful of other candidates atop the list. Among them is Victor Glover, a 46-year-old naval aviator who returned to Earth from his first spaceflight in 2021 after piloting the second crewed flight of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft and spending nearly six months aboard the International Space Station. The veteran of four spacewalks earned a master’s in engineering while moonlighting as a test pilot.

Randy Bresnik, 55, is also a decorated naval aviator and test pilot who flew combat missions in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. He has flown two missions to the International Space Station: one on the Space Shuttle, another on a Russian Soyuz spacecraft. Bresnik is often mentioned as a top contender for Artemis because, since 2018, he has overseen the astronaut office’s development and testing of all rockets and spacecrafts that will be used in the Artemis missions.

There are four women who people familiar with the process tell CNN are atop the list of likely candidates. Among them are Christina Koch and Jessica Meir, both of whom made history in 2019 when together they performed the first all-female spacewalk.

The 43-year-old Koch, a veteran of six spacewalks, also holds the record for the longest single spaceflight by a woman, with a total of 328 days in space. Koch, an electrical engineer, and Meir, a 45-year-old biologist, were both selected as mission specialists in NASA’s 2013 astronaut class after stints at remote scientific bases in polar regions. That experience of surviving in hostile climates and uncomfortable environments is critical for a crew who will be cramped inside a 17-foot-wide (5-meter-wide), gumdrop-shaped capsule for roughly 10 days.

“We pride ourselves on expeditionary behavior: being a good teammate, emptying the trash can when it’s full, cleaning out the dishwasher when your parents ask you. Those sorts of things,” Wiseman said in August. “That’s really what we’re looking for in those first Artemis missions. Technical expertise. Team player.”

Anne McClain is a decorated army pilot and West Point graduate who flew more than 200 combat missions in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom and went on to graduate from the US Naval Test Pilot School in 2013, the same year she was selected to be a NASA astronaut. After launching on a Russian Soyuz spacecraft in 2018, the 43-year-old spent more than 200 days in space at the International Space Station and served as lead spacewalker on two spacewalks.

Stephanie Wilson is the most senior astronaut on this list. The 56-year-old was selected to be an astronaut more than a quarter century ago in the class of 1996. Wilson served as a mission specialist on three Space Shuttle flights, including the first flight after the 2003 Columbia disaster, which killed seven astronauts.

The final seat on the Artemis II crew will be filled by a Canadian, and Jeremy Hansen is the most buzzed about astronaut with the Canadian Space Agency. Hansen was selected to be an astronaut almost 14 years ago, but he’s still waiting for his first flight assignment. The 47-year-old fighter pilot recently became the first Canadian to be put in charge of training for a new class of NASA astronauts.

All eight astronauts on CNN’s list of top contenders are highly qualified overachievers in the prime of their careers. But sometimes the deciding factor can come down to something frustratingly small.

“The problem is it can be influenced by trivial things, like what size spacesuit you wear. If there is only a medium and a large and you need the extra-large, you’re screwed. You’re not going to get assigned to the mission,” said Reisman, the former astronaut and veteran of three spacewalks. “It can be crazy, little things that dictate how it all comes out and it’s not always the most equitable or transparent process.”

Typically, NASA also strives for a professionally diverse crew with a healthy blend of rookies and veterans, aiming for a mix of military pilots and citizen scientists — doctors, engineers, astrophysicists, biologists and geologists — with a range of strengths.

“Not all astronauts are created equal when it comes to how good they do the job. Not all astronauts are equally as good at doing spacewalks. Not all astronauts are equally as good at doing robotics,” Reisman said. “The standard line is, if you’re qualified, you’re qualified. If you pass the test, then it shouldn’t matter. But when you have really tricky missions, it does matter, and you do want to put your best team forward.”

That is especially true for the crew of Artemis II, which will be riding on a rocket that’s only had one successful test flight.

As secretive as the crew selection process is for Artemis, it used to be even more confusing. That was especially true during the early days of the Space Shuttle program when, for the first and only time in NASA’s history, a non-astronaut had near total control over who flied and who stayed behind on Earth: George Abbey.

“George didn’t operate by committee any more than Josef Stalin had. His was the only voice that counted,” wrote Mullane, the retired astronaut, in his memoir, “Riding Rockets,” about the former director of the Johnson Space Center. “Everything about the most important aspect of our career — flight assignments — was as unknown to us as the dark matter of space was to astrophysicists.”

By the time former NASA astronaut Scott Kelly, who famously spent a year in space, was selected in 1996, the power had shifted back to the chief astronaut. Kelly described the flight assignment process as still “shrouded in mystery,” though he did recall a push toward more transparency by then-Chief of the Astronaut Office Bob Cabana, the current associate administrator of NASA.

“Bob put a big board in his office. He had all the shuttle flights lined up and certain people’s names would be penciled in next to them,” Kelly said. “Reid (Wiseman) did something similar. He was more of an open book. He would tell people what he was thinking.”

Now, Wiseman is on the other side, waiting along with every other active astronaut for the announcement of a lifetime, which the NASA administrator said would come “later in the spring.”

For those who don’t make the cut, Artemis is far from the only game in town. NASA astronauts are currently training and flying to the International Space Station for long-duration spaceflights on the SpaceX Crew Dragon and Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft. A third option, Boeing’s Starliner, is slated to fly astronauts for the first time this spring. The expectation is that every active astronaut will eventually be assigned to a flight. But only eight will get to fly to the moon on either Artemis II or Artemis III.

“This is a special and unique opportunity and, frankly, I’m going to be super jealous of whoever they pick,” Reisman said.

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World

Russia strikes Ukraine’s cities hours after Western countries pledge tanks to Kyiv

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CNN
 — 

Ukraine has urged the West to get military hardware into the hands of its troops as quickly as possible, as Russia fired missiles toward Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities just hours after Germany and the US announced their plans to provide modern tanks to the country.

Russia launched 55 missiles at Ukraine on Thursday morning, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Telegram. Shmyhal said the salvo was aimed at the country’s “energy facilities” and some power substations had been hit.

“The main targets were energy facilities to deprive Ukrainians of power and warmth,” Shmyhal said on Telegram. “The majority of missiles and drones were intercepted by our defenders. Unfortunately there were hits at substations. Nevertheless the situation in the power grid remains under control. Power engineers are doing everything to provide power supply.”

Emergency power outages were introduced in the Kyiv region after the attack.

One person died in the capital, and an air raid alert was in place across the whole country, according to the city’s mayor. The person who died was identified as a 55-year-old man, who was killed “due to the fall of missile fragments,” he head of the Kyiv city military administration, Serhiy Popko, added.

Popko accused Russia of using the Iranian-made attack drones it sent to Ukraine overnight to try and distract Ukrainian air defense units. Fifteen attack drones were fired over over the capital on Thursday, “aimed not only at hitting targets on the ground,” he said. “According to the new tactics of the aggressor, the drones constitute the first wave of a combined air attack for detecting and exhausting Ukrainian air defense.”

The fresh assault comes amid Russian rage at the West’s decision to provide Ukraine with high-tech tanks. Germany finally approved the transport of Leopard 2 tanks on Wednesday, joining the US in sending a batch of vehicles after weeks of geopolitical negotiations.

But a race to get those tanks onto the battlefield has now begun, and Thursday’s attack indicates Moscow will aim to damage Ukrainian resolve in the intervening period.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the West for further weapons supplies following the attack.”This evil, this Russian aggression can and should be stopped only with adequate weapons,” Zelensky told Ukrainians in his nightly address on Thursday. “Weapons on the battlefield. Weapons that protect our skies.”

Ukraine was able to shoot down most of the missiles, a feat Zelensky attributed to the Western-donated air defense systems.

“Today, thanks to the air defense systems provided to Ukraine and the professionalism of our warriors, we managed to shoot down most of the Russian missiles and Shaheds,” he said. “These are at least hundreds of lives saved and dozens of infrastructure facilities preserved.”

Germany is planning to deliver its 14 pledged Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine by the end of March “at the latest,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced Thursday. That will follow a period of training for Ukrainian soldiers.

”This is not too late,” Pistorius said.

The arrival of 31 American Abrams tanks is expected to take far longer, given the complexity of the systems and the logistics of getting a battalion across the Atlantic Ocean and into eastern Ukraine. In the meantime, the US will begin a “comprehensive training program” for the Ukrainians, which will require significant maintenance once they are deployed, according to the White House.

Kyiv will hope that Germany’s Leopards are incorporated into their operations before an anticipated Russian offensive in the spring begins.

Alongside Russia’s Thursday attack on Ukraine came another round of anger from the Kremlin over the supply of tanks. President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday that Moscow sees the delivery of modern Western battle tanks to Ukraine as “direct involvement” in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

But NATO nations dismissed Russia’s ire, and shown a willingness to open up a possible new stage of the war with weapons that will allow Ukraine to take the fighting to Moscow’s forces, rather than focus on repelling Russian attacks.

Kyiv is also continuing to press for more Western stocks, including improved missile systems and modern fighter jets. “We have to unlock the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine, it is important for us to expand our cooperation in artillery, we have to achieve the supply of aircraft to Ukraine,” Zelensky said on Wednesday, adding he had spoken with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg about the desire.

Zelensky referred to the request as “a dream,” but also “an important task for all of us,” indicating another lengthy period of international dialogue in which Ukraine will look to warm up the West to the entire of stepping up its military aid again.

The country’s defense minister meanwhile told CNN on Wednesday that Ukraine’s “wish list” for Western-supplied weapons includes fighter jets.

“I sent a wish list card to Santa Claus last year, and fighter jets also [were] including in this wish list,” Oleksii Reznikov told Christiane Amanpour.

But he said that his government’s first priority was air defense systems, to prevent Russia from carrying out air and missile strikes. “We have to close our sky, to defend our sky,” he said. “That’s priority number one. After that, we need to get more armed vehicles, tanks, artillery systems, UAVs, etc. etc. We have people, but we need weaponry.”

On the ground, Russian forces were “intensifying their pressure” on the eastern city of Bakhmut, Ukraine’s deputy defense minister said on Wednesday.

“The intensity of the battles is increasing,” Hanna Maliar said on Telegram. “The enemy is intensifying their pressure at the Bakhmut and Vuhledar directions. Heavy fighting continues.” That account tallies with two Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut, who said Wednesday that Russian forces were attempting to advance north and south of the city, with one telling CNN that the situation was “very alarming.”

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Business

Sustainable aircraft from NASA, Boeing could fly in 2030s

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(CNN) — Greener commercial flight technology may be on the horizon.

NASA and Boeing will work together on the Sustainable Flight Demonstrator project to build, test and fly an emission-reducing single-aisle aircraft this decade, according to an announcement from the agency on Wednesday.

“Since the beginning, NASA has been with you when you fly. NASA has dared to go farther, faster, higher. And in doing so, NASA has made aviation more sustainable and dependable. It is in our DNA,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson in a statement.

“It’s our goal that NASA’s partnership with Boeing to produce and test a full-scale demonstrator will help lead to future commercial airliners that are more fuel efficient, with benefits to the environment, the commercial aviation industry, and to passengers worldwide. If we are successful, we may see these technologies in planes that the public takes to the skies in the 2030s.”

The WEF’s Lauren Uppink Calderwood discusses the “Clean Skies For Tomorrow” coalition which has pledged to replace 10% of global jet fuel supply with sustainable aviation fuel by 2030.

The first test flight of this experimental aircraft is set to take place in 2028. The goal is for the technology to serve approximately 50% of the commercial market through short- to medium-haul single-aisle aircraft, Nelson said.

Airlines largely rely on single-aisle aircraft, which account for nearly half of aviation emissions worldwide, according to NASA. Developing new technology to reduce fuel use can support the Biden administration’s goal of achieving net-zero aviation carbon emissions by 2050, as laid out in the US Aviation Climate Action Plan.

Boeing estimates that the demand for the new single-aisle aircraft will increase by 40,000 planes between 2035 and 2050.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson holds a model of an aircraft with a Transonic Truss-Braced Wing.

Joel Kowsky/NASA

The design that NASA and Boeing are working on could reduce fuel consumption and emissions by up to 30% compared with today’s most efficient aircraft, according to the agency.

It’s called the Transonic Truss-Braced Wing concept, which relies on elongated, thin wings stabilized by diagonal struts that connect the wings to the aircraft. The design’s shape creates less drag, which means burning less fuel.

The Sustainable Flight Demonstrator will also incorporate other green aviation technologies.

CNN’s Pete Muntean reports on United Airlines’ first successful flight completed by 100 percent sustainable fuel.

“NASA is working toward an ambitious goal of developing game-changing technologies to reduce aviation energy use and emissions over the coming decades toward an aviation community goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050,” said Bob Pearce, NASA associate administrator for the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, in a statement.

“The Transonic Truss-Braced Wing is the kind of transformative concept and investment we will need to meet those challenges and, critically, the technologies demonstrated in this project have a clear and viable path to informing the next generation of single-aisle aircraft, benefiting everyone that uses the air transportation system.”

The benefits of increasing the aspect ratio of the wing have been known for a long time, but the challenge of structuring the design has required advancements in materials and construction to reach this point of development, Pearce said.

By partnering on the project, NASA and Boeing can take on more risks than the aviation industry can do on its own, he said.

“This is an experimental aircraft,” he said. “This is not a commercial development of an aircraft that passengers are going to fly in today. And the reason we need to do this is because this is high-risk technology. We’re trying to validate technology.”

The partnership, supported by the Funded Space Act Agreement, will rely on technical expertise and facilities and $425 million from NASA over seven years. Meanwhile, Boeing and its partners will contribute the remaining $725 million and the technical plan.

“We’re honored to continue our partnership with NASA and to demonstrate technology that significantly improves aerodynamic efficiency resulting in substantially lower fuel burn and emissions,” said Todd Citron, Boeing chief technology officer.

The aviation sector is preparing to ramp up production of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) made from cooking oil, clothing, steel production emissions and other renewable sources.

Top photo: An artist’s concept shows commercial aircraft featuring the Transonic Truss-Braced Wing configuration from NASA and Boeing’s Sustainable Flight Demonstrator project.

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World

Brovary, Ukraine: Helicopter crash kills 16, including Ukrainian interior minister

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CNN
 — 

A helicopter crash near a kindergarten in the Kyiv region has killed at least 16 people, including the leadership team of Ukraine’s interior ministry who were traveling on the aircraft and three children on the ground, according to officials.

At least 30 others, including 12 children, are in the hospital following the incident in the city of Brovary on Wednesday, according to Kyrylo Tymoshenko, head of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration.

Tymoshenko has revised down the number of people killed in the crash on the outskirts of Ukraine’s capital – the previous death toll was 18.

Interior Minister Denis Monastyrsky, First Deputy Minister Yevheniy Yenin and State Secretary Yuriy Lubkovychis died, Anton Geraschenko, a ministry adviser, confirmed on social media.

All nine people onboard the helicopter (six ministry officials and three crew members) were killed, leaving another seven dead on the ground, including three children, Tymoshenko said. A search and rescue operation is continuing, he added.

The Ukrainian Security Services, the SBU, has launched an investigation into the crash, and posted on Facebook that “several versions of the tragedy are being considered.”

They include: “violation of flight rule, technical malfunction of the helicopter (and) deliberate actions to destroy the helicopter.”

There has been no suggestion from any other Ukrainian officials about Russian involvement in this crash. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has described the incident as a “tragedy.”

A CNN team on the ground in the Kyiv region noted gray skies and very low visibility.

The helicopter that crashed was a Eurocopter EC225 “Super Puma,” the CNN crew confirmed after seeing remnants of flight manuals among the debris.

The State Emergency Services of Ukraine (SES) said that this helicopter “was repeatedly involved in the transportation of personnel to emergency sites.”

An SES statement posted on Facebook added: “The crew of the aircraft was trained to perform tasks in difficult conditions and had the required number of hours of flying time.”

It landed near a kindergarten and a residential building, Oleksiy Kuleba, head of the Kyiv Regional Military Administration, said earlier.

“At the time of the tragedy, there were children and the staff in the kindergarten. At the moment, everyone was evacuated,” he wrote on Telegram.

Paramedics, the police and firefighters are responding at the scene, Kuleba added.

In a written statement, President Zelensky called the crash “a terrible tragedy,” adding that he has ordered the Ukrainian Security Services to “to find out all the circumstances.”

Zelensky ended his statement by saying the interior ministry officials were “true patriots of Ukraine. May they rest in peace! May all those whose lives were taken this black morning rest in peace!”

The officials are thought to be the most senior government figures to have died since Russia invaded Ukraine last February.

Monastyrsky, 42, was a lawyer by training. According to a biography published on the ministry’s website, he spent some years teaching law and management at a university in his home town of Khmelnytskyi, before deciding to turn “from theory to practice” and become involved in politics.

He worked on reforming Ukrainian law enforcement following the 2014 Euromaidan revolution, rose through the ranks and was appointed interior minister in July 2021.

Last year, Monastyrsky accompanied a CNN crew on a visit to abandoned Russian military positions in Chernobyl.

News of Monastyrsky’s death sparked a wave of reactions from many of his counterparts and other foreign leaders.

“Saddened by the tragic death of the Ukrainian Interior Minister Denis Monastyrsky. Thoughts for all the victims of this terrible event that occurred near a kindergarten, for the children and the families,” French President Emmanuel Macron tweeted.

UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly described Monastyrsky as “a true friend of the UK.”

Charles Michel, president of the European Council, also paid tribute to Monastyrsky as “a great friend of the EU.” Michel tweeted that the European Union joins Ukraine “in grief following the tragic helicopter accident in Brovary.”

Yenin, also 42, served as Ukraine’s deputy prosecutor general and deputy minister of foreign affairs before becoming Monastyrsky’s first deputy in September 2021, according to the ministry’s website.

Lubkovychis was 33 and, like the other two men, was also appointed to the ministry in 2021.

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World

Nepal: Harrowing video purportedly shows last moments inside cabin before deadly plane crash

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CNN
 — 

A Facebook Live video purportedly showing the last terrifying moments inside the cabin on Yeti Airlines flight 691 before it crashed in Nepal on Sunday has circulated widely online, as search and recovery efforts continue on the ground.

The plane crashed while en route from the Nepalese capital Kathmandu to Pokhara, a tourist gateway to the Himalayas. There were 72 people on board, including four crew members, according to an airline spokesperson.

With all but one body recovered, the crash marks the country’s deadliest air disaster in more than 30 years.

The search to locate the last remaining victim is ongoing, Anil Shahi, a local official, said Tuesday.

The video was purportedly live streamed from inside the plane by a passenger, Sonu Jaiswal, with footage beginning moments before the plane crashed. It shows a plane window with the wing seen outside as the aircraft banks sharply to the left.

At one point, seemingly unaware of the impending danger, Jaiswal turns the video to himself, smiling slightly amid chatter and laughter in the background. Several passengers can be heard conversing excitedly in a mix of Hindi and Punjabi; one person says, “Look at that body of water, it’s excellent,” as the plane passes by a lake.

The mood inside the plane appears calm, with no emergency warnings from the pilot or airline crew. Seconds later, the video abruptly starts shaking with shouts heard; the camera loses focus, only showing flashes of light and loud noise, before the scene erupts in fire.

CNN has corroborated the video based on geolocation, a flight manifest and information on the Yeti Airlines website.

Jaiswal is listed as a passenger on the flight manifest, and the seat number listed for him on the airline website matches the visuals taken from inside the plane.

A close friend of Jaiswal in India, Arman Ansari, also confirmed it was Jaiswal seen in the video. He added that he was watching a Facebook Live stream from Jaiswal during the flight.

“We were watching it. We had watched for just a few seconds and then it got cut. We did not think much about it,” he said.

Aryaka Akhouri, the chief of Gazipur district in India where Jaiswal lived, said she had spoken to Jaiswal’s parents, and confirmed he was on the plane and the one filming the video.

A spokesman for Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) has said the video is not from Sunday’s crash. When pressed, he said he and his team had no technical evidence to support that claim. Instead, he pointed to passengers laughing at the first sign of turbulence before panic set in seconds later as evidence it could not be the Yeti Airlines flight.

Aviation analyst Mary Schiavo told CNN the video could be helpful in the investigation, saying it could have captured details not recorded in the plane’s black box. For instance, the aircraft’s flap, which gives extra lift during landing, “does not look like (it’s) fully extended,” she said.

She added that what seems to be the sound of an engine suggests “they had power to at least one engine.”

– Source:
CNN
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Tragic twist discovered involving co-pilot in Nepal plane crash

Search and recovery efforts continued on Tuesday for the two people still missing, according to Nepali police. District police chief Ajaya KC said foggy weather was making the search difficult and authorities planned to use drones to locate those missing when the weather improves.

Meanwhile, an investigation into the cause of the crash is ongoing, with assistance from French investigators who will be on site by Tuesday. The plane’s black box, which records flight data, was recovered on Monday and would be handed to CAAN, officials said.

Aviation authorities said Tuesday that the pilot of the plane had asked air traffic controllers for a change of runway just minutes before the aircraft went down.

Pokhara airport has two runways that pilots can choose between when landing and the pilot’s request had been accepted, CAAN spokesperson Jagannath Niroula said.

“When the Yeti Airlines pilot asked the tower if he can take the second runway to land, the tower approved it,” he said. “The tower controllers didn’t ask why the pilot wanted to use a different runway than originally planned since it wasn’t an issue technically from their end which runway the pilot chooses to land,” Niroula told CNN.

No distress calls were reported from the pilot to the Pokhara airport tower controllers, he added.

In Kathmandu and Pokhara, crowds held candlelight vigils for the victims on Monday.

Of the bodies recovered, at least 41 have been identified, Yeti Airlines said in a statement Monday. Some bodies will be handed over to their families in Pokhara, while others – including those of foreign nationals – will be airlifted to Kathmandu on Tuesday, police said.

Fifteen foreign nationals were aboard, hailing from India, Russia, South Korea, Australia, Ireland, Argentina and France, according to CAAN.

Videos on Monday showed grieving families in Pokhara, waiting outside the hospital where autopsies are being conducted. The postmortems were delayed because a team of forensic experts didn’t reach Pokhara until Monday afternoon, according to police and airline officials.

Some families have begun speaking out about the loss of their loved ones. In a statement Tuesday, the family of Australian victim Myron Love said the 29-year-old teacher had been a keen cyclist who “lived life to the fullest.”

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Business

Air India Set To Order Nearly 500 Jets, Says Aircraft Lessor

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Air India did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Dublin:

Air India is set to order around 500 planes as an airline industry recovery takes hold following the pandemic, one of the world’s leading aircraft lessors said on Monday.

“As a result of this recovery, there is now more momentum for large orders from airlines who have sort of sat back and watched the movie, and now they’re seeing there’s going to be a positive trend,” Steven Udvar-Hazy, executive chairman of AirLease Corp, told the Airline Economics conference.

“We have this 500-aircraft order coming out of India, which is going to be about 400 narrow-body aircraft, probably a mix of (Airbus) A320neos, A321neos and (Boeing) 737 MAXs, and 100 wide-bodies which will include (Boeing) 787s, 777X, potentially some 777 freighters and (Airbus) A350s.” 

The comments are the first public indication of the scale of the planned order after Reuters reported in December that Air India was close to ordering as many as 500 jets as it carves out a renaissance under the Tata Group conglomerate.

Industry sources say finalising the proposed deal depends on ongoing negotiations with engine makers.

Air India did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Airbus and Boeing had no immediate comment.

United Airlines recently ordered 200 large and small aircraft. China last year placed a block order for Airbus jets.

“We do expect a number of airlines will place large orders and again most of these orders will be for replacement,” Udvar-Hazy said.

He predicted airlines would increasingly turn back towards medium-sized wide-body jets after significant delays in the development of Boeing’s largest new model, the 400-seat 777X – currently running at five years and potentially rising further.

“We expect that both OEMs will be under pressure in the next couple of years to increase production rates, not necessarily back to the levels they were in 2018, but certainly well above current production.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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Nepal finds black boxes of aircraft after deadliest crash in 30 years

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  • Searchers find bodies of two of four missing passengers
  • Rescue efforts paused after poor weather hampers operation
  • Cockpit voice, flight data recorders found in good shape
  • Nepal observes day of national mourning, launches probe

KATHMANDU, Jan 16 (Reuters) – Searchers found the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder on Monday from a passenger flight that crashed, killing at least 70 people in Nepal’s worst plane accident for 30 years, officials said.

The data on the recorders may help investigators determine what caused the Yeti Airlines ATR 72 aircraft, carrying 72 people, to go down in clear weather on Sunday just before landing in the tourist city of Pokhara.

Reuters Graphics

Both recorders were in good shape and will be sent for analysis based on the recommendation of the manufacturer, Teknath Sitaula, a Kathmandu airport official, told Reuters.

Under international aviation rules, the crash investigation agency of the country where the plane was designed and built is automatically part of the inquiry.

ATR is based in France and the plane’s engines were manufactured in Canada by Pratt & Whitney Canada (RTX.N).

Nepal’s Civil Aviation Authority has inspected all ATR 72 and ATR 42 aircraft operating in the country since the crash and found no technical faults in them, it said in a statement on Monday.

There are currently 16 ATR 72 aircraft and three ATR 42s with multiple airlines in the country, an aviation authority official said.

Rescuers battled cloudy weather and poor visibility on Monday as they scoured a river gorge for passengers who are unaccounted for, more than 24 hours after the crash.

Two more bodies were recovered on Monday, taking the death toll to 70, said Navin Acharya, an official at the rescue coordination centre at Kathmandu airport. The search was called off for the remaining two missing people as darkness descended and will resume on Tuesday, he said.

Pokhara police official Ajay K.C. said all bodies had been sent to a hospital.

In the capital Kathmandu around 100 people lit candles at a gathering in memory of the crash victims and called on the government to ensure proper safety standards, witnesses said.

Condolences poured in from around the world, including the Vatican.

“His Holiness Pope Francis sends his condolences to you and to all affected by this tragedy, together with his prayers for those involved in the recovery efforts,” Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin said in a message to Nepal’s president.

[1/7] A rescue team recovers the body of a victim from the site of the plane crash of a Yeti Airlines operated aircraft, in Pokhara, Nepal January 16, 2023. REUTERS/Rohit Giri

Reuters footage from the crash site showed rescuers looking at the charred remains of the plane near a mountain gorge.

The plane, on a scheduled flight from Kathmandu to Pokhara, gateway to the scenic Annapurna mountain range, was carrying 57 Nepalis, five Indians, four Russians, two South Koreans, and one person each from Argentina, Ireland, Australia and France.

The aircraft had flown more than 1,700 times in the past one year.

Minutes before the aircraft was to land on Sunday, the pilot asked for a change of runway, a spokesperson for Pokhara airport said on Monday. “The permission was granted. “We don’t ask (why), whenever a pilot asks we give permission to change approach,” spokesperson Anup Joshi said.

Sunday’s crash underlined the need for the government to break up the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN), which both regulates airlines and manages airports, experts said.

“The government must immediately separate the regulatory body and service provider by splitting the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) which is doing both works now,” K.B. Limbu, an aviation expert and a retired pilot, told Reuters.

“This leads to a conflict of interests.”

Asked for comment, Sitaula, the Kathmandu airport official, denied there was any such conflict in the functioning of CAAN.

“The regulatory and service provider (airport management) officials are separate and there is no cross-movement between the two bodies operating under the same organisation,” he said, referring to the CAAN.

There are nine domestic airlines in Nepal, including Yeti Airlines and its unit Tara Air. Yeti and Tara plane crashes have killed at least 165 people in Nepal since 2000 out of a total of 359 dead from aviation accidents, according to data from CAAN.

Reuters Graphics

An additional 75 people have died in helicopter crashes this century in Nepal, which is home to eight of the world’s 14 highest mountains, including Everest, and where sudden weather changes can make for hazardous conditions.

Experts say air accidents are usually caused by a combination of factors, and investigations can take months or longer.

Anju Khatiwada, the co-pilot of Sunday’s ill-fated aircraft, lost her husband Dipak Pokhrel in a similar crash in 2006. Khatiwada’s remains have not been identified but she is feared dead.

Nepal observed a day of national mourning on Monday and set up a panel to investigate the disaster and suggest measures to avoid such incidents in future.

Reporting by Gopal Sharma, writing by Shilpa Jamkhandikar and Shivam Patel; Editing by Gerry Doyle, Raju Gopalakrishnan and Mark Heinrich

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Search resumes for missing people as Yeti Airlines disaster highlights dangers of flying in Nepal

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CNN
 — 

Hundreds of emergency personnel on Monday resumed a search and recovery mission in Nepal following a deadly plane crash that has once again highlighted the dangers of air travel in a country often referred to as one of the riskiest places to fly.

Of the 72 people on board, at least 68 were killed when a Yeti Airlines flight crashed near the city of Pokhara Sunday.

Four others remain missing, but Kaski District Police Chief Superintendent Ajay K.C. said Monday that the chance of finding survivors was “extremely low” as workers used a crane to pull bodies from the gorge.

The crash is the worst air disaster in the Himalayan nation in 30 years. It is also the third-worst aviation accident in Nepal’s history, according to data from the Aviation Safety Network.

Experts say conditions such as inclement weather, low visibility and mountainous topography all contribute to Nepal’s reputation as notoriously dangerous for aviation.

The Yeti Airlines flight Sunday had nearly finished its short journey from the capital Kathmandu to Pokhara when it lost contact with a control tower. Some 15 foreign nationals were aboard, according to the country’s civil aviation authority.

Pokhara, a lakeside city, is a popular tourist destination and gateway to the Himalayas. It serves as the starting point for the famous Annapurna Circuit trekking route, with more than 181,000 foreigners visiting the area in 2019.

A government committee is now investigating the cause of the crash, with assistance from French authorities. The Yeti Airlines plane was manufactured by aerospace company ATR, headquartered in France.

The plane’s black box, which records flight data, was recovered on Monday and would be handed to the civil aviation authority, officials said.

Fickle weather patterns aren’t the only problem for flight operations. According to a 2019 safety report from Nepal’s Civil Aviation Authority, the country’s “hostile topography” is also part of the “huge challenge” facing pilots.

Nepal, a country of 29 million people, is home to eight of the world’s 14 highest mountains, including Everest, and its beautiful rugged landscapes make it a popular tourist destination for trekkers.

But this terrain can be difficult to navigate from the air, particularly during bad weather, and things are made worse by the need to use small aircraft to access the more remote and mountainous parts of the country.

Aircraft with 19 seats or fewer are more likely to have accidents due to these challenges, the Civil Aviation Authority report said.

Kathmandu is Nepal’s primary transit hub, from where many of these small flights leave.

The airport in the town of Lukla, in northeastern Nepal, is often referred to as the world’s most dangerous airport. Known as the gateway to Everest, the airport’s runway is laid out on a cliffside between mountains, dropping straight into an abyss at the end. It has seen multiple fatal crashes over the years, including in 2008 and 2019.

A lack of investment in aging aircraft only adds to the flying risks.

In 2015, the International Civil Aviation Organization, a United Nations agency, prioritized helping Nepal through its Aviation Safety Implementation Assistance Partnership. Two years later, the ICAO and Nepal announced a partnership to resolve safety concerns.

While the country has in recent years made improvements in its safety standards, challenges remain.

In May 2022, a Tara Air flight departing from Pokhara crashed into a mountain, killing 22 people.

In early 2018, a US-Bangla Airlines flight from Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka to Kathmandu crashed on landing and caught fire, killing 51 of the 71 people on board.

And in 2016, a Tara Air flight crashed while flying the same route as the aircraft that was lost Sunday. That incident involved a recently acquired Twin Otter aircraft flying in clear conditions.

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How Ukraine became a laboratory for western weapons and battlefield innovation

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CNN
 — 

Last fall, as Ukraine won back large swaths of territory in a series of counterattacks, it pounded Russian forces with American-made artillery and rockets. Guiding some of that artillery was a homemade targeting system that Ukraine developed on the battlefield.

A piece of Ukrainian-made software has turned readily available tablet computers and smartphones into sophisticated targeting tools that are now used widely across the Ukrainian military.

The result is a mobile app that feeds satellite and other intelligence imagery into a real-time targeting algorithm that helps units near the front direct fire onto specific targets. And because it’s an app, not a piece of hardware, it’s easy to quickly update and upgrade, and available to a wide range of personnel.

US officials familiar with the tool say it has been highly effective at directing Ukrainian artillery fire onto Russian targets.

The targeting app is among dozens of examples of battlefield innovations that Ukraine has come up with over nearly a year of war, often finding cheap fixes to expensive problems.

Small, plastic drones, buzzing quietly overhead, drop grenades and other ordinance on Russian troops. 3D printers now make spare parts so soldiers can repair heavy equipment in the field. Technicians have converted ordinary pickup trucks into mobile missile launchers. Engineers have figured out how to strap sophisticated US missiles onto older Soviet fighter jets such as the MiG-29, helping keep the Ukrainian air force flying after nine months of war.

Ukraine has even developed its own anti-ship weapon, the Neptune, based off Soviet rocket designs that can target the Russian fleet from almost 200 miles away.

This kind of Ukrainian ingenuity has impressed US officials, who have praised Kyiv’s ability to “MacGyver” solutions to its battlefield needs that fill in important tactical gaps left by the larger, more sophisticated Western weaponry.

While US and other Western officials don’t always have perfect insight into exactly how Ukraine’s custom-made systems work – in large part because they are not on the ground – both officials and open-source analysts say Ukraine has become a veritable battle lab for cheap but effective solutions.

“Their innovation is just incredibly impressive,” said Seth Jones, director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has also offered the United States and its allies a rare opportunity to study how their own weapons systems perform under intense use – and what munitions both sides are using to score wins in this hotly fought modern war. US operations officers and other military officials have also tracked how successfully Russia has used cheap, expendable drones that explode on impact, provided by Iran, to decimate the Ukrainian power grid.

Ukraine is “absolutely a weapons lab in every sense because none of this equipment has ever actually been used in a war between two industrially developed nations,” said one source familiar with Western intelligence. “This is real-world battle testing.”

For the US military, the war in Ukraine has been an incredible source of data on the utility of its own systems.

Some high-profile systems given to the Ukrainians – such as the Switchblade 300 drone and a missile designed to target enemy radar systems – have turned out to be less effective on the battlefield than anticipated, according to a US military operations officer with knowledge of the battlefield, as well as a recent British think tank study.

But the lightweight American-made M142 multiple rocket launcher, or HIMARS, has been critical to Ukraine’s success – even as officials have learned valuable lessons about the rate of maintenance repair those systems have required under such heavy use.

How Ukraine has used its limited supply of HIMARS missiles to wreak havoc on Russian command and control, striking command posts, headquarters and supply depots, has been eye-opening, a defense official said, adding that military leaders would be studying this for years.

Another crucial piece of insight has been about the M777 howitzer, the powerful artillery that has been a critical part of Ukraine’s battlefield power. But the barrels of the howitzers lose their rifling if too many shells are fired in a short time frame, another defense official said, making the artillery less accurate and less effective.

The Ukrainians have also made tactical innovations that have impressed Western officials. During the early weeks of the war, Ukrainian commanders adapted their operations to employ small teams of dismounted infantry during the Russian advance on Kyiv. Armed with shoulder-mounted Stinger and Javelin rockets, Ukrainian troops were able to sneak up on Russian tanks without infantry on their flanks.

The US has also closely studied the conflict for larger lessons on how a war between two modern nations might be waged in the 21st century.

The operations officer said that one lesson the US may take from this conflict is that towed artillery – like the M777 howitzer system – may be a thing of the past. Those systems are harder to move quickly to avoid return fire – and in a world of ubiquitous drones and overhead surveillance, “it’s very hard to hide nowadays,” this person said.

When it comes to lessons learned, “there’s a book to be written about this,” said Democratic Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut, a member of the House Intelligence Committee.

US defense contractors have also taken note of the novel opportunity to study – and market – their systems.

BAE Systems has already announced that the Russian success with their kamikaze drones has influenced how it is designing a new armored fighting vehicle for the Army, adding more armor to protect soldiers from attacks from above.

And different parts of the US government and industry have sought to test novel systems and solutions in a fight for which Ukraine needed all the help it could get.

In the early days of the conflict, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency sent five lightweight, high-resolution surveillance drones to US Special Operations Command in Europe – just in case they might come in handy in Ukraine. The drones, made by a company called Hexagon, weren’t part of a so-called program of record at the Defense Department, hinting at the experimental nature of the conflict.

Navy Vice Adm. Robert Sharp, the head of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency at the time, even boasted publicly that the US had trained a “military partner” in Europe on the system.

“What this allows you to do is to go out underneath cloud cover and collect your own [geointelligence] data,” Sharp told CNN on the sidelines of a satellite conference in Denver last spring.

Despite intense effort by a small group of US officials and outside industry, it remains unclear whether these drones ever made it into the fight.

Meanwhile, multiple intelligence and military officials told CNN they hoped that creating what the US military terms “attritable” drones – cheap, single-use weapons – has become a top priority for defense contractors.

“I wish we could make a $10,000 one-way attack drone,” one of these officials said, wistfully.

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Taiwan: War game simulation suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries

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CNN
 — 

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, United States, Taiwanese and Japanese forces, and it would be unlikely to result in a victory for Beijing, according to a prominent independent Washington think tank, which conducted war game simulations of a possible conflict that is preoccupying military and political leaders in Asia and Washington.

A war over Taiwan could leave a victorious US military in as crippled a state as the Chinese forces it defeated.

At the end of the conflict, at least two US aircraft carriers would lie at the bottom of the Pacific and China’s modern navy, which is the largest in the world, would be in “shambles.”

Those are among the conclusions the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made after running what it claims is one of the most extensive war-game simulations ever conducted on a possible conflict over Taiwan, the democratically ruled island of 24 million that the Chinese Communist Party claims as part of its sovereign territory despite never having controlled it.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has refused to rule out the use of military force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.

CNN reviewed an advance copy of the report – titled “The First Battle of the Next War” – on the two dozen war scenarios run by CSIS, which said the project was necessary because previous government and private war simulations have been too narrow or too opaque to give the public and policymakers a true look at how conflict across the Taiwan Strait might play out.

“There’s no unclassified war game out there looking at the US-China conflict,” said Mark Cancian, one of the three project leaders and a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Of the games that are unclassified, they’re usually only done once or twice.”

CSIS ran this war game 24 times to answer two fundamental questions: would the invasion succeed and at what cost?

The likely answers to those two questions are no and enormous, the CSIS report said.

“The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members. Such losses would damage the US global position for many years,” the report said. In most scenarios, the US Navy lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants. Approximately 3,200 US troops would be killed in three weeks of combat, nearly half of what the US lost in two decades of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war,” it said. The report estimated China would suffer about 10,000 troops killed and lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.

– Source:
CNN
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Japan expands defense of its southern front line to counter China (April 2022)

The scenarios paint a bleak future for Taiwan, even if a Chinese invasion doesn’t succeed.

“While Taiwan’s military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services,” the report. The island’s army would suffer about 3,500 casualties, and all 26 destroyers and frigates in its navy will be sunk, the report said.

Japan is likely to lose more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships while US military bases on its home territory come under Chinese attack, the report found.

But CSIS said it did not want its report to imply a war over Taiwan “is inevitable or even probable.”

“The Chinese leadership might adopt a strategy of diplomatic isolation, gray zone pressure, or economic coercion against Taiwan,” it said.

Dan Grazier, a senior defense policy fellow at the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), sees an outright Chinese invasion of Taiwan as extremely unlikely. Such a military operation would immediately disrupt the imports and exports upon which the Chinese economy relies for its very survival, Grazier told CNN, and interrupting this trade risks the collapse of the Chinese economy in short order. China relies on imports of food and fuel to drive their economic engine, Grazier said, and they have little room to maneuver.

“The Chinese are going to do everything they can in my estimation to avoid a military conflict with anybody,” Grazier said. To challenge the United States for global dominance, they’ll use industrial and economic power instead of military force.

But Pentagon leaders have labeled China as America’s “pacing threat,” and last year’s China Military Power report mandated by Congress said “the PLA increased provocative and destabilizing actions in and around the Taiwan Strait, to include increased flights into Taiwan’s claimed air defense identification zone and conducting exercises focused on the potential seizure of one of Taiwan’s outlying islands.”

In August, the visit of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island prompted a wide-ranging display of PLA military might, which included sending missiles over the island as well as into the waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

Since then, Beijing has stepped up aggressive military pressure tactics on the island, sending fighter jets across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the body of water separating Taiwan and China and into the island’s air defense identification zone – a buffer of airspace commonly referred to as an ADIZ.

And speaking about Taiwan at the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping won large applause when he said China would “strive for peaceful reunification” — but then gave a grim warning, saying “we will never promise to renounce the use of force and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.”

The Biden administration has been steadfast in its support for the island as provided by the Taiwan Relations Act, which said Washington will provide the island with the means to defend itself without committing US troops to that defense.

The recently signed National Defense Authorization Act commits the US to a program to modernize Taiwan’s military and provides for $10 billion of security assistance over five years, a strong sign of long-term bipartisan support for the island.

Biden, however, has said more than once that US military personnel would defend Taiwan if the Chinese military were to launch an invasion, even as the Pentagon has insisted there is no change in Washington’s “One China” policy.

Under the “One China” policy, the US acknowledges China’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never officially recognized Beijing’s claim to the self-governing island.

“Wars happen even when objective analysis might indicate that the attacker might not be successful,” said Cancian.

The CSIS report said for US troops to prevent China from ultimately taking control of Taiwan, there were four constants that emerged among the 24 war game iterations it ran:

Taiwan’s ground forces must be able to contain Chinese beachheads; the US must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations; the US must have long-range anti-ship missiles to hit the PLA Navy from afar and “en masse”; and the US needs to fully arm Taiwan before shooting starts and jump into any conflict with its own forces immediately.

“There is no ‘Ukraine model’ for Taiwan,” the report said, referring to how US and Western aid slowly trickled in to Ukraine well after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor started and no US or NATO troops are actively fighting against Russia.

“Once the war begins, it’s impossible to get any troops or supplies onto Taiwan, so it’s a very different situation from Ukraine where the United States and its allies have been able to send supplies continuously to Ukraine,” said Cancian. “Whatever the Taiwanese are going to fight the war with, they have to have that when the war begins.”

Washington will need to begin acting soon if it’s to meet some of the CSIS recommendations for success in a Taiwan conflict, the think tank said.

Those include, fortifying US bases in Japan and Guam against Chinese missile attacks; moving its naval forces to smaller and more survivable ships; prioritizing submarines; prioritizing sustainable bomber forces over fighter forces; but producing more cheaper fighters; and pushing Taiwan toward a similar strategy, arming itself with more simple weapons platforms rather than expensive ships that are unlikely to survive a Chinese first strike.

Those policies would make winning less costly for the US military, but the toll would still be high, the CSIS report said.

“The United States might win a pyrrhic victory, suffering more in the long run than the ‘defeated’ Chinese.”

“Victory is not everything,” the report said.

– Source:
CNN
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Breakdown in US-China relations a ‘manufactured crisis,’ US ambassador says (August 2022)

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