Tag Archives: Air Transport

Is Travel Coming Back? Airports Have Busiest Days Since March 2020

Airline executives said they are starting to see a path out of the coronavirus pandemic as more passengers resume travel, following a weekend when airport volumes hit their highest levels in a year.

Delta

DAL 2.33%

Air Lines Inc. bookings began picking up five or six weeks ago as people have begun making plans for spring and summer, Chief Executive Officer

Ed Bastian

said at an industry conference Monday.

“We’ve seen some glimmers of hope over the last year, but they’ve been false hope,” Mr. Bastian said. “But this seems like it’s real.”

Airline stocks climbed Monday. Shares of

United Airlines Holdings Inc.

UAL 8.26%

rose 8.3%, while shares of

American Airlines Group Inc.

AAL 7.70%

climbed 7.7% and Delta shares rose 2.3%.

The pandemic brought travel to a near halt last spring. Travel restrictions and fear of infection kept people at home and out of airports for most of the year: U.S. airlines carried 60% fewer passengers in 2020 than in 2019, bringing passenger traffic to the lowest level since the mid-1980s, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

Major U.S. airlines lost about $35 billion in 2020. But on Monday, United and Delta said they could stop bleeding cash this month.

That was hard to imagine at the beginning of this year. Airline executives said January and February were even weaker than they expected, as a high numbers of cases, the rise of more contagious variants, and new Covid-19 testing requirements for people arriving from abroad had a chilling effect.

Executives said they remain cautious. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention still advises against travel, and the number of people passing through U.S. airports is still half—or less—of what it was for most days in 2019, according to the Transportation Security Administration.

But the numbers are climbing. Airports screened nearly 1.36 million people Friday and more than 1.34 million people on Sunday, two of the busiest days since March 2020.

Numbers of new Covid-19 cases are dropping, and distribution of vaccine doses has picked up. President Biden said earlier this month that the U.S. will have enough vaccines for all American adults by the end of May.

Some states, including New York and Connecticut, are relaxing rules requiring that inbound travelers quarantine.

And there is more to do once people arrive. California, for instance, has paved the way for

Walt Disney Co.

’s Disneyland and other attractions to reopen at limited capacity if certain test positivity benchmarks are met. State and local governments—even in heavily restrictive states such as Michigan and Illinois—are allowing restaurants to seat some patrons indoors again.

Southwest Airlines Co.

LUV 1.75%

and JetBlue Airways Corp. also said Monday that more people are making plans to travel, booking vacations or trips to visit friends and family, helping to pare expected revenue declines this quarter.

Amy Curtis, who lives in Arizona, has been vaccinated since the end of February. When she learned over the weekend that her mother in Pennsylvania had also received her second shot, Ms. Curtis decided to book a visit.

“It was one of those impulsive things,” she said. “Life is so short—I feel like I need to take this opportunity. I don’t know when I may have it again.”

Ms. Curtis said she doesn’t yet feel comfortable traveling just for fun or vacation. But others are hitting beaches and ski resorts, according to airlines and analysts. JetBlue sold more bundled flight-and-hotel vacation packages last week than ever before, Chief Executive

Robin Hayes

said at the conference hosted by

JPMorgan Chase

& Co.

Bookings to destinations such as Florida and Hawaii, while still down from 2019 levels, are holding up better than other areas, according to data from ForwardKeys, a travel-analytics company. Domestic bookings were 42% of 2019 levels in the first week of January but were at 64% of 2019 levels in the first week of March, according to its data.

“There has been progressive growth in U.S. domestic bookings every week since the beginning of the year,” said

Olivier Ponti,

vice president of insights at ForwardKeys.

The recent uptick in flight bookings is helping to stem the amount of cash the carriers have been losing daily, executives said Monday. Airlines have been on track to burn through $150 million in cash a day during the first three months of this year, according to trade group Airlines for America.

United CEO

Scott Kirby

said at the conference Monday that the company expects its cash flow to turn positive, excluding debt payments, this month. Mr. Bastian also said Delta expects to stop burning cash as soon as this month.

“We know that we can’t yet put Covid in the rearview mirror,” Mr. Kirby said, noting that the airline remains unprofitable and would have to focus on repaying the debt it has taken on. But he said he expects there could be a steady travel boom on the way after a year when many people suspended or curtailed leisure experiences.

Airline executives have long said that travel demand would roar back once more people are vaccinated. While many international borders remain closed and businesses aren’t rushing to resume client meetings and conferences, executives said there are signs that pent-up demand is returning.

“Our last three weeks have been the best three weeks since the pandemic hit,”

American Airlines

AAL 7.70%

CEO

Doug Parker

said.

Airports in Paris and Singapore as well as airlines including United and JetBlue are experimenting with apps that verify travelers are Covid-free before boarding. WSJ visits an airport in Rome to see how a digital health passport works. Photo credit: AOKpass

Carriers are also on firmer financial footing, having secured three rounds of government aid to cover the costs of paying workers, in addition to billions of dollars of private funding. The American Rescue Act that President Biden signed into law last week includes $14 billion to cover salaries and benefits for airline workers in exchange for pledges not to furlough or lay off employees until the fall. That brings the total amount of government payroll support for airlines to $54 billion.

American Airlines also said last week it would raise $10 billion by putting up its frequent-flier program as collateral.

Mr. Parker said, “For the first time since this crisis hit a little over a year ago, we at American are not looking to go raise any money.”

How the Reopening Will Affect You

Write to Alison Sider at alison.sider@wsj.com

Copyright ©2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Read original article here

Despite surging stocks and home prices, U.S. inflation won’t be a problem for some time

When America’s amusement parks and baseball stadiums no longer must serve as COVID-19 mass vaccination sites, some investors believe that households pocketing pandemic financial aid from the government might start to splurge.

While a consumer splurge could initially boost the parts of the economy devastated by the pandemic, a bigger concern for investors is that a sustained spending spree also could cause prices for goods and services to rise dramatically, dent financial asset values, and ultimately raise the cost of living for everyone.

“I don’t think inflation is dead,” said Matt Stucky, equity portfolio manager at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. “The desire by key policy makers is to have it, and it’s the strongest it’s ever been. You will see rising inflation.”

Wall Street investors and analysts have become fixated in recent weeks on the potential for the Biden Administration’s planned $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package that targets relief to hard-hit households to cause inflation to spiral out of control.

Economists at Oxford Economics said on Friday they expect to see the “longest inflation stretch above 2% since before the financial crisis, but it’s unlikely to sustainably breach 3%.”

Severe inflation can hurt businesses by ratcheting up costs, pinching profits and causing stock prices to fall. The value of savings and bonds also can be chipped away by high inflation over time. 

Another worry among investors is that runaway inflation, which took hold in the late 1970s and pushed 30-year mortgage rates to near 18%, could force the Federal Reserve to taper its $120 billion per month bond purchase program or to raise its benchmark interest rate above the current 0% to 0.25% target sooner than expected and spook markets.

At the same time, it’s not far-fetched to argue that some financial assets already have been inflated by the Fed’s pedal-to-the-metal policy of low rates and an easy flow of credit, and might be due for some cooling off.

U.S. stocks, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.09%,
S&P 500 index
SPX,
+0.47%
and Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+0.50%
closed on Friday at all-time highs, while debt-laden companies can now borrow in the corporate “junk” bond, or speculative-grade, market at record low rates of about 4%.

Read: Stock market stoked by stimulus hopes — what investors are counting on

In addition to rallying stocks and bonds, home prices in the U.S. also have gone through the roof during the pandemic, despite the U.S. still needing to recoup almost as many jobs from the COVID-19 crisis as during the worst of the global financial crisis in 2008.

This chart shows that jobs lost to the pandemic remain near to levels seen in the aftermath of that last crisis.

Job losses need to be tamed


LPL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he doesn’t expect a “large or sustained” outbreak of inflation, while also stressing that the central bank remains focused on recouping lost jobs during the pandemic, as the U.S. looks to makes serious headway in its vaccination program by late July. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday reiterated a call on Friday that the time for more, big fiscal stimulus is now.

“Broadly, the guide is, does it cost me more to live a year from now than a year prior,” Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management, said about inflation in an interview with MarketWatch.

“I think what we need to watch is wage inflation,” he said, adding that higher wages for upper income earners were mostly flat for much of the past decade. Also, many lower-wage households hardest hit by the pandemic have been left out of the past decade’s climb in financial asset prices and home values, he said.

“For the folks who haven’t taken that ride, it feels like a perpetuation of inequality that’s played out for some time,” he said, adding that the “only way to get broad inflation is with a broad overheating of the economy. We have the exact opposite. The bottom third are no where near overheating.”

Klingelhofer said it’s probably also a mistake to watch benchmark 10-year Treasury yields for signs that the economy is overheating and for inflation since, “it’s not a proxy for inflation. It’s just a proxy for how the Fed might react,” he said.

The 10-year Treasury yield
TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.209%
has climbed 28.6 basis points in the year to date to 1.199% as of Friday.

But with last year’s sharp price increases, is the U.S. housing market at least at risk of overheating?

“Not at current interest rates,” said John Beacham, the founder and CEO at Toorak Capital, which finances apartment buildings and single family rental properties, including those going through rehabilitation and construction projects.

“Over the course of the year, more people will go back to work,” Beacham said, but he added that it’s important for policy makers in Washington to provide a bridge for households through the pandemic, until spending on socializing, sporting events, concerts and more can again resemble a time before the pandemic.

“Clearly, there likely will be short-term consumption increase,” he said. “But after that it normalizes.”

The U.S. stock and bond markets will be mostly closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.

On Tuesday, the only tidbit of economic data comes from the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State manufacturing index, followed Wednesday by a slew of updates on U.S. retail sales, industrial production, home builders data and minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting. Thursday and Friday bring more jobs, housing and business activity data, including existing home sales for January.

Read original article here