Tag Archives: 2020

Astronomers Witness The X-Ray ‘Fireball’ of a Stellar Nova For The First Time

The brief, yet colossal eruption of a dead star undergoing a nova explosion has been captured by one of the most powerful X-ray instruments in space.

The joint German-Russian eROSITA telescope, aboard the Spektr-RG space observatory in the L2 Lagrange point (yes, Webb’s home), caught for the first time what is known as the ‘fireball’ phase of a classical nova. This X-ray data has finally confirmed via observation a 1990 prediction about the physics of novae.

 

The nova in question is known as YZ Reticuli, discovered on 15 July 2020, at a distance of around 8,250 light-years, near the southern constellation of Reticulum. Analysis revealed that this transient brightening was likely the result of what we call a classical nova – an eruption from a white dwarf star.

Here’s how it works. A white dwarf star is what we think of as a “dead” star – the collapsed core of a star that was up to around 8 times the mass of the Sun after it reached the end of its atomic fusion (main sequence) lifespan, and ejected its outer material. Other objects of this kind include neutron stars (between 8 and 30 solar masses) and black holes (anything bigger than that).

White dwarfs are small and dense: between the size of Earth and the Moon, roughly, and up to as massive as 1.4 Suns. That mass limit is known as the Chandrasekhar limit: if a white dwarf exceeds that limit, it becomes so unstable that it blows up in a spectacular supernova.

White dwarfs can also – frequently – be in binary systems with larger (albeit less massive) stars. If they’re in a close-enough mutual orbit, the white dwarf can siphon material from its binary companion.

 

That material is primarily hydrogen; it accumulates on the white dwarf’s surface, where it heats up. Eventually, the mass becomes so great that pressure and temperature at the bottom of the hydrogen layer are sufficient to ignite atomic fusion on the white dwarf’s surface; this triggers a thermonuclear explosion, violently expelling the excess material into space. Hello, nova.

During its second all-sky survey from June to December 2020, eROSITA repeatedly swept the region of sky containing the white dwarf. On its first 22 passes, everything looked just normal, hunky-as-dory could be. On the 23rd pass, however, beginning on 7 July 2020, an extremely bright, soft X-ray source appeared at what was later to be identified as YZ Reticuli – only to disappear again at the next pass, meaning the entire flash couldn’t have lasted more than eight hours.

This was 11 hours prior to the optical brightening of the source. This, astronomers say, was entirely consistent with theoretical modeling of the ‘fireball’ phase of a nova. (Previous observations of a nova fireball were taken in optical wavelengths, and concern the expanding ejecta as the star erupts – a different stage of the nova entirely.)

 

According to a prediction advanced in 1990, a very brief ‘fireball’ phase should take place between the runaway fusion that triggers the explosion and the brightening of the star in optical wavelengths. This phase should appear as a soft, short, and bright flash of X-radiation before the star brightens in optical wavelengths.

This, according to theory, happens because the expanding material reaches the white dwarf’s photosphere, or ‘surface’. For a brief period of time, the outward acceleration of that material matches the inward acceleration due to the star’s gravity, causing the white dwarf to heat up and shine with maximum luminosity, known as Eddington luminosity.

As the explosion continues to expand, it cools down, causing the light emitted to shift from the more energetic X-ray wavelengths into the optical. That’s usually when we see a nova brighten.

The results have allowed the team to make a few key measurements of the white dwarf in question. These include the precise timing of the thermonuclear reaction, and the temperature evolution of the white dwarf during the entire duration of the nova event. Theoretical work also suggests that the duration of the fireball phase corresponds to the mass of the white dwarf. Using this information, the team derived a mass of 0.98 times the mass of the Sun.

The observation, the team said, was a very lucky one. Over its four-year mission, eROSITA is expected to detect just one or two such fireballs, given the rate of novas in our galaxy.

“With the successful detection of the flash of YZ Reticuli by eROSITA, the existence of X-ray flashes has now been observationally confirmed,” the researchers write in their paper.

“Our detection also adds the missing piece to measure the total nova energetics and completes the whole picture of the photospheric evolution of the thermonuclear runaway.”

The research has been published in Nature.

 

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Brent Sass holds off Dallas Seavey to seize his first Iditarod victory

NOME — Brent Sass has won the 50th Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race, a first for the Eureka-based musher and three-time Yukon Quest champion.

Sass cruised to the finish line on Nome’s Front Street at 5:38 a.m. Tuesday, wrapping up his nearly 1,000-mile journey in 8 days, 14 hours, 38 minutes and 43 seconds.

The 42-year-old, originally from Minnesota, had 11 dogs in harness when he crossed under the burled arch to cheers, whoops and whistles from the spectators lining the finish chute under a still-dark sky.

“It’s awesome,” Sass said when asked about his first win. “It’s a dream come true.”

He fed his dogs snacks and petted and congratulated them. He said he was “super, super, super proud” of his team: “It’s all on them. They did an excellent job the whole race.”

“Every one of these dogs I’ve raised from puppies, and we’ve been working towards this goal the whole time, and we’re here,” he said, his voice cracking. “It’s crazy.”

He was presented with an oversized check for $50,000 and posed for photos with his lead dogs, Slater and Morello.

Sass had ice in his beard when he stepped off his sled, and a massive grin on his face as he faced a jubilant crowd. He described severe winds on the run from White Mountain to Nome, saying “it was a lot of work, but a lot of fun.”

His dad, Mark Sass, stood near the burled arch in anticipation of his son’s pre-sunrise arrival and hugged him at the finish line.

“He’s worked really, really, really hard for this,” Mark Sass said.

Forty-nine mushers entered this year’s Iditarod, and five have dropped out so far. Sass’ closest and fiercest competitor, five-time champion Dallas Seavey, narrowed the gap between them early Tuesday but never got close enough to overtake Sass, who held the lead from the race’s midway point onward.

“Being able to sort of keep him at bay the whole entire race and race against the best guy in the business, that just makes this victory even sweeter,” Sass said.

Seavey, 35, arrived in Nome with seven dogs in harness an hour and eight minutes after Sass. Seavey’s father, Mitch, is a three-time champion who’s competing this year, and his grandfather Dan ran the first Iditarod in 1973. A victory would have given Dallas the record for most Iditarod wins, and he has said he plans to step back from the race after this year.

Behind Sass and Seavey, mushers in the chase pack were taking their mandatory eight-hour layovers at White Mountain, 77 miles from Nome, and weren’t expected to cross the finish line until nighttime.

Tuesday’s victory builds on Sass’ third-place finish in 2021, his best result since he entered his first Iditarod in 2012, when he finished in 13th and earned rookie of the year honors.

When he started mushing, he set out to win the thousand-mile Yukon Quest and the Iditarod. He’s worked toward that goal for years and can now, finally, check it off his list.

“It’s been overwhelming, the support I’ve gotten all over the state, all over the world the last six months,” Sass said Tuesday morning.

Born in Excelsior, Minnesota, and raised in the Twin Cities area, Sass came to Alaska in 1998 to attend college in Fairbanks, where he skied competitively.

Sass lives and runs his Wild and Free kennel year-round out of a homestead in Eureka, a remote area 150 miles from Fairbanks and 30 miles from the tiny town of Manley Hot Springs, the closest community.

This year, Sass closed up the homestead so he could live and train at a cabin near Fairbanks, in part so there were less chores to keep up with as he honed his dog team and competed in races.

Four of the 14 dogs Sass started this year’s Iditarod with are newbies that had never run to Nome. His leaders, Slater and Morello, come from litters named for characters from the 1993 Richard Linklater film “Dazed and Confused” and the Netflix show “Orange is the New Black,” respectively.

Before the start of this year’s race, Sass described what it would take to win the Iditarod.

“A lot of things have to come together,” he said during the ceremonial start in Anchorage. “You gotta have a lot of luck, you gotta be prepared and you gotta execute perfectly.”

This year marks the Iditarod finish’s return to Nome after last year’s route was altered to be an out-and-back trail from Deshka Landing, near Willow, in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

In the finish area, Iditarod CEO Rob Urbach said that getting to Nome is the essence of the race’s journey.

”The energy here is tremendous,” Urbach said following Sass’ win.

Zachariah Hughes reported from Anchorage and Morgan Krakow reported from Nome. Marc Lester contributed reporting from Anchorage.



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GOP lawmaker caught on video urging party to ‘cheat like the Democrats or bend the rules’ | Local Government

Steineke also referenced “ballot harvesting,” a term Republicans have applied to Madison’s Democracy in the Park event, in which deputized clerks collected 17,000 absentee ballots at city parks. There is no evidence the event resulted in fraud, and the Supreme Court declined to rule on its legality while a lower court deemed it legal.

Shot at governor

In the video, Behnke also took aim at Evers for his stay-at-home orders issued in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, which the state Supreme Court struck down, saying he feels like punching the governor but hasn’t come face to face with him yet.

In response, Evers’ spokesperson Britt Cudaback said the governor “believes in doing the right thing and leading with kindness, respect, empathy, and compassion. It’s a shame those Wisconsin values seem to be lost on Republicans in the Legislature.”

Behnke was elected in an April special election to the Assembly seat previously held by Rep. John Nygren, R-Marinette.

Wisconsin Democratic Party chair Ben Wikler called on Vos to investigate the incident, strip Behnke of his committee assignments and remove him from the caucus.

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Ejecting Mars’ Pebbles – NASA Mars

The team has made good progress implementing the initial recovery steps outlined in last week’s blog. Our first success: The upper two pebbles were ejected from the bit carousel during a test. This is great news, as these small chunks of debris are believed to be the cause of the unsuccessful transfer of the drill bit and sample tube into the carousel back on Dec. 29. Our second success: We appear to have removed most – if not all – of the cored rock that remained in Sample Tube 261.

Here is the latest…

Pebbles in Bit Carousel

Rotating Perseverance’s Bit Carousel: An annotated GIF depicts a rotational test of Perseverance’s bit carousel in which two of four rock fragments were ejected. The five images that make up the GIF were obtained by the rover’s WATSON imager on Jan. 17, 2022. Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS. Download image ›

On Monday, Jan. 17, the WATSON camera imaged the bit carousel and its pebbles – and also took images underneath the rover to establish just what was down there before any recovery strategies were applied. Later that same Martian day, we rotated the bit carousel about 75 degrees before returning it back to its original position. WATSON imaging showed the two upper pebbles were ejected during the process. Tuesday night we also received the second set of under-rover images, which show two new pebbles on the surface, indicating the ejected pebbles made it fully through bit carousel and back onto the surface of Mars as planned.

The other two pebbles, located below the bit carousel, remain. It is interesting to note that some of the initial trials performed on our testbed here on Earth indicate that the location of the two leftover pebbles may not pose a significant problem with bit carousel operation, but we are continuing analysis and testing to confirm this.

Remaining Sample in Tube

Perseverance Expels Rock Fragments: A portion of a cored-rock sample is ejected from the rotary percussive drill on NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover. The imagery was collected by the rover’s Mastcam-Z instrument on Jan. 15, 2022. Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU/MSSS. Download image ›

On Saturday, Jan. 15, the team performed an experiment using Perseverance’s rotary-percussive drill. After the robotic arm oriented the drill with Sample Tube 261’s open end angled around 9 degrees below horizontal, the rover’s drill spindle rotated and then extended. Our remarkable Mastcam-Z instrument (which has video capability previously used to document some of Ingenuity’s flights) captured the event. The imagery from the experiment shows a small amount of sample material falling out of the drill bit/sample tube. Later that same Martian day, the bit was positioned vertically over “Issole” (the rock that provided this latest core) to see if additional sample would fall out under the force of gravity. However, Mastcam-Z imaging of 261’s interior after this subsequent maneuver showed it still contained some sample.  

Perseverance’s Sample Tube Looks Clean: This image, taken by the Mastcam-Z camera aboard NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover on Jan. 20, 2022, shows the rover successfully expelled the remaining large fragments of cored rock from a sample tube held in its drill. Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU/MSSS. Download image ›

Given that some of the sample had already been lost, the team decided it was time to return the rest of the sample to Mars and hopefully completely empty the tube to ready it for potentially another sampling attempt. On Monday, Jan. 17, the team commanded another operation of the rotary percussive drill in an attempt to dislodge more material from the tube. With the tube’s open end still pointed towards the surface, we essentially shook the heck out of it for 208 seconds – by means of the percussive function on the drill. Mastcam-Z imagery taken after the event shows that multiple pieces of sample were dumped onto the surface. Is Tube 261 clear of rock sample? We have new Mastcam-Z images looking down the drill bit into the sample container that indicate little if any debris from the cored-rock sample remains. The sample tube has been cleared for reuse by the project.

Future Moves

The team is still reviewing the data and discussing next steps. Like all Mars missions, we’ve had some unexpected challenges. Each time, the team and our rover have risen to the occasion. We expect the same result this time – by taking incremental steps, analyzing results, and then moving on, we plan to fully resolve this challenge and get back to exploration and sampling at Jezero Crater.

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Pebbles Before Mountains – NASA Mars

NASA’s Mars 2020 mission team has been working methodically and thoroughly, making good progress on understanding the best path forward to remove the uninvited pebbles from Perseverance’s bit carousel. Over the previous weekend, and earlier this week, operational sequences were developed and tested to remove these rocky interlopers.

With terrestrial experimentation complete, we have begun executing our mitigation strategy on Mars. On Jan. 12 we did a detailed image survey of the ground below Perseverance. This was done so we would have a good idea what rocks and pebbles already exist down there before some more – from our bit carousel – join them in the not-so-distant future.  

With this below-chassis, preliminary imaging, in hand, the team embarked on a maneuver with our robotic arm I never imagined we would perform – ever. Simply put, we are returning the remaining contents of Sample Tube 261 (our latest cored-rock sample) back to its planet of origin. Although this scenario was never designed or planned for prior to launch, it turns out dumping a core from an open tube is a fairly straightforward process (at least during Earth testing). We sent commands up yesterday, and later on today the rover’s robotic arm will simply point the open end of the sample tube toward the surface of Mars and let gravity do the rest.

I imagine your next question is, “Why are you dumping out the contents of the sample tube?” The answer is that, at present, we are not certain how much cored rock continues to reside in Tube 261. And while this rock will never make my holiday card list, the science team really seems to like it. So if our plans go well with our pebble mitigation (see below), we may very well attempt to core “Issole” (the rock from which this sample was taken) again.

Which brings me to next steps in our pebble mitigation strategy: we’re sending up commands to the rover later today, ordering it to do two rotation tests of the bit carousel. These tests (the first, a small rotation; the second, larger) will execute this weekend. Our expectations are that these rotations – and any subsequent pebble movement – will help guide our team, providing them the necessary information on how to proceed. Still, to be thorough, we are also commanding the rover to take a second set of under-chassis images, just in case one or more pebbles happen to pop free.   

We expect the data and imagery from these two rotation tests to be sent to Earth by next Tuesday, Jan. 18. From there, we’ll analyze and further refine our plans. If I had to ballpark it, I would estimate we’ll be at our current location another week or so – or even more if we decide to re-sample Issole.

So there you have it. The Perseverance team is exploring every facet of the issue to ensure that we not only get rid of this rocky debris but also prevent a similar reoccurrence during future sampling. Essentially, we are leaving no rock unturned in the pursuit of these four pebbles.

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Assessing Perseverance’s Seventh Sample Collection

On Wednesday, Dec. 29 (sol 306) Perseverance successfully cored and extracted a sample from a Mars rock. Data downlinked after the sampling indicates that coring of the rock the science team nicknamed Issole went smoothly. However, during the transfer of the bit that contains the sample into the rover’s bit carousel (which stores bits and passes tubes to the tube processing hardware inside the rover), our sensors indicated an anomaly. The rover did as it was designed to do – halting the caching procedure and calling home for further instructions.

This is only the 6th time in human history a sample has been cored from a rock on a planet other than Earth, so when we see something anomalous going on, we take it slow. Here is what we know so far, and what we are doing about it.

Imaging Perseverance’s Sample: This image shows the cored-rock sample remaining in the sample tube after the drill bit was extracted from Perseverance’s bit carousel on Jan. 7, 2022. Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech. Download image ›

The anomaly occurred during “Coring Bit Dropoff.” It’s when the drill bit, with its sample tube and just-cored sample nestled inside, is guided out of the percussive drill (at the end of the robotic arm) and into the bit carousel (which is located on the rover’s chassis). During processing of previous cored rock samples, the coring bit travelled 5.15 inches (13.1 centimeters) before sensors began to record the kind of resistance (drag) expected at first contact with the carousel structure. However, this time around the sensor recorded higher resistance than usual at about 0.4 inches (1 centimeter) earlier than expected, and some much higher resistance than expected during the operation.

The team requested additional data and imagery to ensure proper understanding of the state post anomaly.  Because we are presently operating through a set of “restricted Sols” in which the latency of the data restricts the type of activities we can perform on Mars, it has taken about a week to receive the additional diagnostic data needed to understand this anomaly.

Armed with that data set, we sent up a command to extract the drill bit and sample-filled tube from the bit carousel and undock the robotic arm from the bit carousel. During these activities, a series of hardware images were acquired.

The extraction took place yesterday (1/6) and data was downlinked early this morning. These most recent downlinked images confirm that inside the bit carousel there are a few pieces of pebble-sized debris. The team is confident that these are fragments of the cored rock that fell out of the sample tube at the time of Coring Bit Dropoff, and that they prevented the bit from seating completely in the bit carousel.

The designers of the bit carousel did take into consideration the ability to continue to successfully operate with debris. However, this is the first time we are doing a debris removal and we want to take whatever time is necessary to ensure these pebbles exit in a controlled and orderly fashion. We are going to continue to evaluate our data sets over the weekend.

This is not the first curve Mars has thrown at us – just the latest. One thing we’ve found is that when the engineering challenge is hundreds of millions of miles away (Mars is currently 215 million miles from Earth), it pays to take your time and be thorough. We are going to do that here. So that when we do hit the un-paved Martian road again, Perseverance sample collection is also ready to roll.

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Scientists Figured Out How Much Exercise You Need to ‘Offset’ a Day of Sitting

We know that spending hour after hour sitting down isn’t good for us, but just how much exercise is needed to counteract the negative health impact of a day at a desk? A 2020 study suggests about 30-40 minutes per day of building up a sweat should do it.

 

Up to 40 minutes of “moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity” every day is about the right amount to balance out 10 hours of sitting still, the research says – although any amount of exercise or even just standing up helps to some extent.

That’s based on a meta-analysis across nine previous studies, involving a total of 44,370 people in four different countries who were wearing some form of fitness tracker.

The analysis found the risk of death among those with a more sedentary lifestyle went up as time spent engaging in moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity went down.

“In active individuals doing about 30-40 minutes of moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity, the association between high sedentary time and risk of death is not significantly different from those with low amounts of sedentary time,” the researchers wrote in the British Journal of Sports Medicine (BJSM) in 2020.

In other words, putting in some reasonably intensive activities – cycling, brisk walking, gardening – can lower your risk of an earlier death right back down to what it would be if you weren’t doing all that sitting around, to the extent that this link can be seen in the amassed data of many thousands of people.

 

While meta-analyses like this one always require some elaborate dot-joining across separate studies with different volunteers, timescales, and conditions, the benefit of this particular piece of research is that it relied on relatively objective data from wearables – not data self-reported by the participants.

The study was published alongside the release of the World Health Organization 2020 Global Guidelines on Physical Activity and Sedentary Behavior, put together by 40 scientists across six continents. In fact, in November 2020 BJSM put out a special edition to carry both the new study and the new guidelines.

“These guidelines are very timely, given that we are in the middle of a global pandemic, which has confined people indoors for long periods and encouraged an increase in sedentary behavior,” said physical activity and population health researcher Emmanuel Stamatakis from the University of Sydney in Australia.

“People can still protect their health and offset the harmful effects of physical inactivity,” says Stamatakis, who wasn’t involved in the meta-analysis but is the co-editor of the BJSM. “As these guidelines emphasize, all physical activity counts and any amount of it is better than none.”

 

The research based on fitness trackers is broadly in line with the new WHO guidelines, which recommend 150-300 mins of moderate intensity or 75-150 mins of vigorous-intensity physical activity every week to counter sedentary behavior.

Walking up the stairs instead of taking the lift, playing with children and pets, taking part in yoga or dancing, doing household chores, walking, and cycling are all put forward as ways in which people can be more active – and if you can’t manage the 30-40 minutes right away, the researchers say, start off small.

Making recommendations across all ages and body types is tricky, though the 40 minute time frame for activity fits in with previous research. As more data are published, we should learn more about how to stay healthy even if we have to spend extended periods of time at a desk.

“Although the new guidelines reflect the best available science, there are still some gaps in our knowledge,” said Stamatakis.

“We are still not clear, for example, where exactly the bar for ‘too much sitting’ is. But this is a fast-paced field of research, and we will hopefully have answers in a few years’ time.”

The research was published here, and the WHO guidelines here, in the British Journal of Sports Medicine.

A version of this article was originally published in November 2020.

 

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Pennsylvania Republican: Election audit happening without ‘credible evidence of fraud’

Republican Pennsylvania state Sen. Dan Laughlin on Thursday came out against the GOP-backed audit of the 2020 election results in his state, becoming the party’s first statewide-elected official to do so.

Speaking to Reuters, Laughlin said that the efforts to investigate President BidenJoe BidenBriahna Joy Gray: White House thinks extending student loan pause is a ‘bad look’ Biden to meet with 11 Democratic lawmakers on DACA: report Former New York state Senate candidate charged in riot MORE‘s November victory in Pennsylvania are being made “absent credible evidence of fraud” and will not change the outcome.

“The current attempt to discredit the 2020 election results runs headlong into an unmistakable truth,” Laughlin said. “Donald TrumpDonald TrumpFormer New York state Senate candidate charged in riot Trump called acting attorney general almost daily to push election voter fraud claim: report GOP senator clashes with radio caller who wants identity of cop who shot Babbitt MORE lost Pennsylvania because Donald Trump received fewer votes.”

Last week, voting machines in Pennsylvania’s Fulton County were decertified following an election audit. Acting Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Veronica Degraffenreid said in a letter that the audit itself, conducted by software company Wake TSI, had compromised the machines, adding that the process was “not transparent or bipartisan.”

The voting machines were handed over to Wake TSI following a request from state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R), a staunch ally of Trump’s who has pushed conspiracy theories regarding the 2020 election. Mastriano arranged buses to attend the Washington “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6 that preceded the deadly Capitol insurrection.

As Reuters notes, Laughlin’s remarks place him directly against Mastriano, who was argued in favor of a “forensic” audit modeled after the one currently taking place in Arizona’s Maricopa County. Both Laughlin and Mastriano are eyeing a run for Pennsylvania governor.

Laughlin told Reuters that efforts to “rummage through already counted ballots while employing statistical tricks” in an attempt to find fraud would only negatively impact his party and aid Democrats in fundraising. The state senator pointed out that Republicans generally fared well in Pennsylvania, winning state treasurer and auditor general for the first time in decades.

“That’s not a sign of a stolen election,” Laughlin said.



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Outbreak of Mysterious Paralyzing Condition Squashed by COVID–19 Pandemic

The grim pall of the COVID-19 pandemic ensures that 2020 will go down as an infamous year in the history of human disease.

But this dark chapter held some surprises we can be thankful for, too. In a new study, researchers found that a predicted 2020 outbreak of a mysterious paralyzing illness failed to materialize on schedule – and in a weird way, we actually have the coronavirus to thank for it.

 

The condition in question is called acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). This polio-like neurological disease mainly affects children, causing muscle weakness and, in some cases, permanent paralysis and even death.

For decades, cases of AFM were very rare, but in recent years, larger outbreaks across the US and elsewhere have occurred, seemingly reoccurring every two years.

A body of previous research has linked AFM to a rare virus called enterovirus D68 (EV-D68), and while it’s not yet known how the virus manifests the symptoms of the AFM disease, coinciding outbreaks of the pair have led researchers to think they are almost certainly related.

In the new research, a team led by first author and infectious disease modeler Sang Woo Park from Princeton University tracked patterns of cases of EV-D68 between 2014 and 2019, with the virus staging significant resurgences in even-numbered years – 2014, 2016, and 2018 – which are thought to be attributable to climate-based factors.

The data suggested 2020 was due for another hit.

“We predicted that a major EV-D68 outbreak, and hence an AFM outbreak, would have still been possible in 2020 under normal epidemiological conditions,” the researchers explain in their study.

 

Of course, as the world was at pains to witness, the epidemiological conditions of 2020 were anything but ordinary, and the expected combo hit of EV-D68 and AFM never came.

In the US – a country with significantly more cases of COVID-19 than any other – the combined effects of physical distancing, quarantine and isolation policies, and economic and civic shutdowns all appeared to not just diminish the spread of SARS-CoV-2 but EV-D68 as well.

“Our preliminary analysis indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic response is likely to have affected the dynamics of a 2020 EV-D68 outbreak,” the authors write.

According to the researchers, there were 153 cases of AFM in 2016 and 238 cases in 2018, but just 31 cases in 2020.

In light of everything the US has been through in recent times, these are some numbers to feel good about.

Still, there’s no time for complacency – especially as EV-D68’s unplanned gap year may have left a larger than usual void in viral immunity at the population level.

“On the basis of the low number of [predicted] EV-D68 cases in 2019, we would expect the number of susceptible individuals to have increased, enhancing the probability for a large outbreak to occur,” the team says.

“If social distancing prevents the outbreak from occurring, then the susceptible pool may increase even further.”

The findings are reported in Science Translational Medicine.

 

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Groundhog Day 2021: Punxsutawney Phil predicts 6 more weeks of winter

Pennsylvania’s most famous groundhog emerged from his burrow on a snowy Tuesday morning and saw his shadow, declaring there would be six more weeks of winter.  Members of Punxsutawney Phil’s “Inner Circle” woke up the furry critter at 7:25 a.m. to see whether he would see his shadow or not.

The spectacle that is Groundhog Day at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania went on but this year, it was all virtual because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Pennsylvania’s most famous groundhog emerged from the snow and saw his shadow and declared there would be six more weeks of winter on Tuesday, February 2, 2021. 

GroundhogDay.org


Shortly after this year’s prediction was revealed, one of the members of the inner circle shared a message he said Phil had told him earlier in the day: “After winter, you’re looking forward to one of the most beautiful and brightest springs you’ve ever seen.”

Another member of the “inner circle” noted the uniqueness of the past year.

“People have been referencing Groundhog Day. It has felt like at times we’re all living the same day over and over again,” one of the members said. “Groundhog Day also shows us that the monotony ends. The cycle will be broken.”

“Today actually is Groundhog Day, there’s only one,” he added. “There is quite literally a new day coming over the horizon.”

According to records dating back to 1887, the Pennsylvanian prognosticator has predicted more winter more than 100 times. Last year, Phil predicted an early spring.

A livestream, which had more than 15,000 viewers at one point, played footage from previous Groundhog Day’s ahead of the big reveal.

Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, as Vice President Tom Dunkel reads the scroll during the 135th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennyslvania, on Tuesday, February 2, 2021.

Barry Reeger / AP


Then of course, the prognosticator of prognosticators — assisted by his Inner Circle — emerged at dawn. The lore goes that if he sees his shadow as he did this year, there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, spring comes early.

The livestream from Gobbler’s Knob, a tiny hill just outside Punxsutawney about 65 miles (105 kilometers) northeast of Pittsburgh, is made possible by the Pennsylvania Tourism Office’s Holi-stay PA. The event there, always on February 2, dates back to 1887.

Phil this year, like many years in the past, gave his forecast during a major snowstorm that  hit the entire Northeast.

Jeff Lundy, the president of the Groundhog Club, told CBS Pittsburgh: “I’ve been doing this for a long time. I did not really understand the economic impact until now. And now I see it, because so many businesses they don’t depend on on Groundhog Day, but it really is that extra income that you may not get so it has had a, it has had a very, very negative impact on the community.”

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