We’ve spent the past week dissecting 2022 NFL draft prospects’ measurements, timed speed and skill sets when playing against nothing but air as we digest what we saw at the scouting combine. But with all the talk of risers, fallers, burners and workout warriors, how did the combine really impact the Round 1 outlook for April? And what can the Seahawks do with their brand-new top-10 pick, acquired as part of the agreed-upon deal sending Russell Wilson to the Broncos. It seems like a good time to take another run through all 32 picks on deck for Day 1.
The combine isn’t everything in the pre-draft process, but it’s a piece of the puzzle. The workouts either validate a prior evaluation or make you go back to the tape for a second look. Two things were for sure as we all left Indianapolis after four days of on-field work, though: This draft class has a ton of speed and explosion, and teams that miss out on filling a need in the first round will have plenty of strong options on Day 2 and even Day 3.
So after a great week in Indy at the return of the combine, who is projected to be the No. 1 pick? Who will land the top prospects? Does Seattle moving into the top 10 change up quarterback landing spots? I projected an additional trade, too: Which team jumps at the chance to move up and get a QB late in the first round?
Remember, we still have team interviews and pro-day workouts looming, so projections are far from final. I’ll keep running through tape right up until April 28, as well, and teams are still working through their own boards. But for now, here is my current prediction of how the first round of the 2022 draft will play out. And for more on all 32 picks, check out our SportsCenter mock draft special at 5 p.m. ET Wednesday on ESPN2.
Note: Historical notes are via ESPN Stats & Information.
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
I thought hard about NC State offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu here even after the Jaguars put the franchise tag on Cam Robinson on Tuesday, but that move means Jacksonville will be paying Robinson $16.6 million in 2022. Would the Jags commit that kind of money to the position and then still draft a tackle when they have the chance to instead bring in the best prospect in the class? Hutchinson can be a franchise cornerstone on defense. He racked up 14 sacks and 66 pressures last season, his 6.73-second three-cone drill shows incredible short-area burst, and he is the most technically efficient pass-rusher in the entire class. A pairing of Josh Allen and Hutchinson would torment opposing quarterbacks.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
No, the 4.59-second 40-yard dash doesn’t bother me. Hamilton plays fast on tape, and you don’t come across 6-foot-4, 220-pound safeties with his range, explosion (38-inch vertical jump) and ball skills (three interceptions and four passes defensed in seven 2021 games) very often. The Lions’ pass defense struggled mightily in 2021, giving up 5.9 yards per play (29th) and 26.9 points per game (28th). Opposing quarterbacks teed off on them with the third-best opponent QBR (53.4). Hamilton closes like a heat-seeking missile, and his playmaking would be welcomed in Detroit.
Defensive ends Travon Walker (Georgia) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon) got some consideration here, and it’s also worth mentioning that the Lions’ coaching staff worked with Liberty quarterback Malik Willis at the Senior Bowl. While I don’t see them considering a quarterback this early, it’s possible they try to trade back, pick up extra picks and draft him later in the first round — or even try to trade up from No. 32, their other Day 1 selection.
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Houston allowed 44 sacks last season (ninth most), and its 53.8% pass block win rate was 27th in the NFL. If the Texans want to truly evaluate Davis Mills’ long-term potential, they have to keep him upright — and defenders would have a real difficult time getting to him through the 6-foot-4, 310-pound Ekwonu. Laremy Tunsil has two years left on his contract, but Ekwonu is versatile and can play other positions along the line before eventually taking over the left tackle spot. He plays with power and is a pancake machine, but he also has the quicks to ride speed rushers past the pocket.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
With Morgan Moses headed toward free agency and Mekhi Becton having trouble staying on the field, the Jets could certainly stand to add to the offensive line here. I thought about an edge rusher or cornerback, but the value is better for Neal at No. 4. (The Jets can address one of those other positions with their second top-10 pick.) Quarterback Zach Wilson saw pressure on 32.5% of his rookie-season dropbacks (seventh most), and the Jets’ 60.5% pass block win rate was middle of the road in 2021. Even so, New York is probably one solid lineman away from a very good starting unit, with or without Moses in the fold. Neal has versatility, he is a dominant run-blocker, and he’s a powerful pass protector with a quick first step. He allowed just one sack in 621 pass-block snaps last season.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
The Giants generated just 34 sacks (tied for 22nd) last season, and while Walker didn’t pile on the QB hits at Georgia (six sacks and 29 pressures last season), he was asked to do a lot of different things in a Bulldogs’ front seven that presents three other likely first-rounders. The 272-pound Walker had a terrific workout in Indy, running a 4.51-second 40 and 6.89-second three-cone drill. Few players I’ve ever evaluated can generate the power he does from the ground up, and that was on display with a 35½-inch vertical and 10-foot-3 broad jump. Teamed up with Leonard Williams and Azeez Ojulari, Walker will only continue to develop while giving the Giants a dynamic edge rusher to spark the defense.
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
The combine didn’t change the fact that No. 6 is too rich for a quarterback this year. But regardless of whether it’s Sam Darnold, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, Liberty’s Malik Willis or someone else under center next season, the Panthers’ offensive line has to get better. Carolina’s 52 sacks allowed were the fifth most in the NFL last season, and its 50.1% pass block win rate was better than only three other teams in the league. Cross had an impressive combine workout, and despite playing the seventh-most pass-block snaps in the FBS last season (683), he allowed just one sack and six pressures.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
Kenny Golladay led the Giants in receiving last season with just 521 yards. Evan Engram led the team in catches with all of 46, and he’s headed to free agency. The next two on the list were running backs. And Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney each struggled to stay healthy. You get the point. With the top three linemen in the class off the board already, new GM Joe Schoen and new coach Brian Daboll can get quarterback Daniel Jones help in another fashion. Wilson has elite body control, 4.38 speed and a big catch radius. New York can walk away happy on Day 1 with exciting new players on defense (Travon Walker) and offense (Wilson).
Drake London, WR, USC
Eight Falcons players caught at least 10 passes last season, but only two of them — tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Mike Davis — are expected to be in uniform for Atlanta in 2022, after receiver Calvin Ridley was suspended on Monday for betting on games. A team has used top-10 picks on pass-catchers in back-to-back drafts three times since 1967, but there might not be another team in the NFL more in need of a top-tier receiver right now. London plays outside and in the slot, threatens vertically and can make plays over the middle. He played in only eight games last season (right ankle fracture), but he had at least 130 receiving yards in six of them.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
Well the rebuild is officially on in Seattle after Tuesday’s agreement to send Russell Wilson to Denver. And because the Seahawks are left with Drew Lock — who was part of the return — as their current quarterback, you have to think they will take a very close look at this draft class’ signal-callers. Do they start over with Pitt’s Kenny Pickett? Do they draft Liberty’s Malik Willis and bet on his upside? Both options are possible at No. 9, but I think Seattle looks to free agency for a short-term complement to Lock and focuses in on Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud in the 2023 draft.
Part of that reasoning is this year’s weaker QB class. The other part is Thibodeaux still being on the board. He has 4.58 speed, the ability to walk blockers back and a great arsenal of pass-rush moves at his disposal. I’ve mentioned that I still want to see a little more fire out of him on a down-to-down basis, and that’s still true. But there’s no doubt he has the talent to be a difference-maker on an NFL defense. And Seattle’s unit could use that: Its 34 sacks tied for No. 22 last season, while its 38.7% pass rush win rate ranked No. 20. Thibodeaux, who had seven sacks and 46 pressures last season, gets a new era of Seahawks football rolling.
1:59
Marcus Spears cannot contain his joy when discussing Russell Wilson and the possibilities ahead in Denver.
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
We know this pick has to be on defense after the Jets went offensive tackle at No. 4 (and spent all of their high picks on offense last April), and Gardner still being on the board makes it an even easier decision — though Florida State edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II would make sense, too. Last season, Gardner gave up just 60 total yards, surrendered zero touchdowns and picked off three passes, whereas the Jets allowed 8.0 passing yards per attempt and managed just seven interceptions. Gardner ran a 4.41 in the 40-yard dash on Sunday, and he smothers receivers off the line. The Jets like their young duo of Bryce Hall and Brandin Echols, but he is too good to pass on.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
Last Thursday at the combine began with concerns about Pickett’s 8½-inch hand size, which is worrisome for a quarterback who has struggled in bad weather games and with turnovers. But it ended with a great performance from him throwing the football during the on-field workouts. I was impressed with the way he put all of the morning’s chatter behind him and put on a show. I still have Liberty’s Malik Willis ranked higher, but Pickett is the most NFL-ready signal-caller in the class. Washington, which had the NFL’s 23rd-best QBR (38.2) last season, would be getting a quarterback with good touch, field vision and accuracy.
The door is still open for the Commanders to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo or even sign a free-agent quarterback. That would change things. But if they go into the draft still seeking a signal-caller, this is a tremendous outcome.
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
The Vikings have a tenacious pass-rush duo in Danielle Hunter and D.J. Wonnum, but Johnson can be a third impact player on their front. His 12 sacks and 45 pressures were both top-15 numbers in the country last season, and he’s a great value pick for Minnesota at No. 12. In Indianapolis, the 6-foot-5, 254-pounder ran a 4.58 in the 40-yard dash and impressed with a 10-foot-5 broad jump. New Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell watched a great pass rush help his former team, the Rams, to a Super Bowl. So he’d happily welcome another smooth-moving explosive end to the mix.
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Another in a long line of Georgia defenders who impressed in Indy, Wyatt locates the football super fast and then has 4.77 speed to close on it. That 40-yard dash time led all defensive tackles at the combine, and he was in the top five at the position in both the vertical (29 inches) and broad jump (9-foot-3). Malik Jackson is a free agent, leaving a hole in the middle of Cleveland’s defensive front, and Wyatt — one of the biggest risers in the class — could slide in next to Myles Garrett to both help get after the quarterback and stuff the run at the line of scrimmage.
And yes, receiver is a position to watch for Cleveland, but it might be slightly early for Ohio State’s Chris Olave or Arkansas’ Treylon Burks.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
I was blown away by Penning’s combine workout. He ran a 4.89 in the 40 and tied for the fastest time among offensive linemen in the three-cone drill (7.25). With that mobility, 34¼-inch length and 6-foot-7, 325-pound size, Penning is tough to get around in pass protection.
But his real bread and butter is run blocking, which aligns well with Baltimore’s offense. He overpowers defenders at the point of attack and can move them off the ball. That’d open lanes for quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back J.K. Dobbins, who are both expected back to the Ravens’ offense after 2021 injuries. With Ronnie Stanley missing 26 regular-season games over the past two years and Alejandro Villanueva turning 34 in September, it’s time for Baltimore to restock the line with real maulers. That’s especially true after the Ravens allowed 57 sacks last season (second most).
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
Ah, we’ve entered the Eagles’ portion of the draft, in which they’ll make three picks over the course of the next five. They don’t look at linebackers in Round 1 often — they’ve taken just one here over the past 40 years (Marcus Smith in 2014) — but Lloyd’s sideline-to-sideline range and versatility make him a perfect fit in the middle of the Philadelphia defense. He filled the stat sheet last season with impact numbers in all facets of the game: 96 tackles, 8.0 sacks, 20 tackles for loss, four interceptions and seven passes broken up.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
April 6 is circled on the calendar of the scouts for every team that covets a first-round cornerback. It’s the LSU pro day, when we should finally see Stingley in action after he opted to sit out the combine workouts while rehabbing his left foot injury a bit longer. There’s not a more confusing evaluation in the class. Stingley is versatile, physical, long and fast. In fact, if I were forced to choose between Ahmad Gardner and him, and I was basing the decision on Gardner’s 2021 tape (which is excellent) and Stingley’s 2019 tape, I’d take the latter. That’s how good he was during his freshman campaign.
But 2020 brought uneven play, and 2021 was largely lost to injury. Failing to quiet concerns at the combine only heightened the apprehension around using an early pick on him. All that said, he has the traits to be shutdown corner in the NFL. Darius Slay and Stingley could be one of the top duos in the league.
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
There isn’t much more to say about Davis’ combine workout. It was one of the most impressive showings I’ve ever seen at the event. Running a 4.78 in the 40-yard dash and jumping 10-foot-3 in the broad jump at 341 pounds seemingly defies physics. If he keeps his weight in the 340-pound range, Davis is going to be a problem for offensive coordinators in the NFL. Against the run, he’s a space-eater who plays with power. He sees double-teams regularly but still appears impossible to move off his spot.
That’s all good news for the Chargers, who gave up 4.6 yards per carry last season (tied for the fifth-worst rate in the NFL) and lose defensive tackles Linval Joseph and Justin Jones to free agency. Davis’ big-time combine showing cemented his top-20 status, but if he keeps up his conditioning and can get on the field more often in the pros, Los Angeles could have a steal at No. 17.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Quarterback is super tempting, especially with Liberty’s Malik Willis still sitting on the board. We know Taysom Hill isn’t the answer, but I do think Jameis Winston goes back to New Orleans in free agency and puts at least a short-term solve on the Saints’ signal-caller woes. But who is he throwing to? Michael Thomas hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and two of the team’s top three wide receivers from 2021 — Tre’Quan Smith and Deonte Harris — are free agents. Olave, meanwhile, is a silky smooth runner with 4.39 speed and great acceleration — and he scored at least once in nine of 11 games last season. Winston (or whoever ends up under center) would immediately have a reliable downfield target.
David Ojabo, DE, Michigan
I still think the Eagles stick with Jalen Hurts at quarterback — Pittsburgh, next on the board, is undoubtedly holding its breath here — so let’s instead address another potential issue. The Eagles’ 29 sacks last season were No. 31 in the league, Derek Barnett is a free agent, and age is starting to catch up to Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham. Ojabo has a quick first step and closes with explosion. That explosion was on display at the combine, where he ran a 4.55 in the 40 and had a solid 10-foot-2 broad jump. His production (11 sacks last season) would be welcomed in Philly. (As an aside, I considered Arkansas receiver Treylon Burks, too, but the Day 2 receiver pool is so deep that the Eagles can wait.)
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
We saw the arm strength in Indianapolis. We know he’s terrific on second-reaction throws. And it’s pretty clear he has the most upside of the class’ quarterbacks. Is he ready to take over right away? That’s another discussion, and the Steelers might want to sign a Mitchell Trubisky or Teddy Bridgewater to avoid the necessity of throwing Willis out there in Week 1. But Pittsburgh needs a franchise quarterback, and Willis has arm talent, great mobility and outstanding field vision. If developed effectively, he can keep the Steelers — who already have a good defense and some offensive playmakers — relevant in the QB-loaded AFC North.
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
This guy is perfect for the Patriots. With Dont’a Hightower hitting free agency, there’s a spot open in the middle of that defense, too. New England’s passing defense was stout in the 2021, but its 4.5 yards allowed per run tied for the eighth worst in the league. Dean has an incredible motor, fighting through blocks and making tackles in space. He has range both against the run and in coverage, and he can even contribute as a pass-rusher. I absolutely love watching his tape. Dean could be Bill Belichick’s leader on defense, and his relentlessness and exceptional instincts will make him an instant-impact player.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller have been terrific for Las Vegas inside the numbers, but quarterback Derek Carr covets a true outside target. That’s especially true now with Russell Wilson heading to Denver — the Raiders’ offense has to keep pace with Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert for six of their 17 games each season. Burks provides excellent ball skills, the ability to break tackles and 6-foot-2 size in the red zone. His combine performance didn’t wow many scouts, but the tape shows why he produced 1,104 receiving yards and 11 touchdown catches in 2021.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
During their late-season collapse, the Cardinals struggled to contain opponents’ passing games. From Week 14 until the end of the regular season, only Houston allowed more passing yards per attempt than Arizona’s 8.2, and the Cards tied for last in the NFL with just one interception. Now Robert Alford is off to free agency, and Arizona could use Byron Murphy Jr. in his more traditional nickelback role. That means the cornerback corps are seeking reinforcements. McDuffie is smooth and stays with receivers so well. He can identify routes, turned in a 4.44 in the 40-yard dash at the combine and flashes the ability to make plays on the ball. And this would be the value pick of the night, because McDuffie isn’t expected to wait this long for his name to be called.
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
Dallas needs to decide where it wants to play Micah Parsons. Does it want to keep him off the edge, where he excelled with 13 sacks last season? Or does it want to return him to his true position at linebacker and let him impact the game in even more ways — and potentially be even better than he was in his rookie year? Either way, the Cowboys could use more pass-rushing support with Randy Gregory and Dorance Armstrong going to free agency. Karlaftis has the ability to transition his quick take-off burst into power and bull rush opponents, and he’d be an immediate contributor for one of the league’s best defenses.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Scary. That’s the first word that comes to mind for an offense featuring Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Williams. Sticking Williams’ burner speed with Allen’s rocket arm is a big-play recipe. Sure, he will need time to recover from an ACL tear, and yes, he’s still refining his route running, but this is a luxury pick for Buffalo. Had it not been for the injury, Williams would have probably been a top-10 pick. Instead, the Bills can land him at the back end of the first round and make one of the league’s highest-octane offenses that much more dynamic. And with Emmanuel Sanders and Isaiah McKenzie off to free agency, there will be targets to go around.
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Tennessee took 47 sacks (seventh most) last year, and center Ben Jones is a free agent. Linderbaum not only fills a need here, he also represents outstanding value. He is highly effective as a zone blocker, which would spring Derrick Henry up the middle, and he gets great leverage in pass protection, which would buy Ryan Tannehill time in the pocket. I love this fit — but the Titans will be lucky to get Linderbaum at this point in the draft.
Kenyon Green, G/C, Texas A&M
These aren’t the Buccaneers you remember from the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Tom Brady is gone, and much of the roster faces free agency. It’s still very unclear who will be the quarterback in 2022, but I don’t see Tampa Bay taking the draft route to fix it. It already has a developmental signal-caller in Kyle Trask, so why burn a Day 1 pick on another when you have so many other issues? One of those issues is the middle of the offensive line, where guard Ali Marpet just retired and guard Alex Cappa and center Ryan Jensen are primed for free agency. Green is versatile and can immediately step in.
Running back and tight end are two other positions to look at, but neither has a true first-rounder in the class. I love Colorado State tight end Trey McBride’s tape, and both Breece Hall (Iowa State) and Kenneth Walker III (Michigan State) can be impact running backs at the next level, but I’m waiting for Day 2 on all three of them.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are back! Great news for Green Bay. But now the Packers have to capitalize and go all in on this offense. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a free agent, and Rodgers could use another receiver he trusts. Dotson is undersized at 5-foot-11 and 178 pounds, but he has speed (4.43 in the 40-yard dash), suddenness (36 inches in the vertical jump) and great ball skills (91 catches in 2021). He could be a true possession receiver to complement Adams, who was franchise-tagged on Tuesday.
MOCK TRADE: Atlanta jumps for another first-round pick
With four picks left in Round 1, only two quarterbacks have been selected. That means teams could be eyeing a move to grab one and secure the fifth-year option as they develop him. The Falcons — who drafted receiver Drake London earlier — take the leap here, sending one of their second-rounders (No. 43), a third-rounder and a fifth-rounder to the Dolphins for the No. 29 slot. Miami, which originally acquired this pick from the 49ers as part of last year’s trade involving San Francisco’s eventual selection of Trey Lance, can still find offensive line help early in the second round. Look for the Dolphins to consider Central Michigan’s Bernhard Raimann or Washington State’s Abraham Lucas on Day 2. As for Atlanta …
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Quarterback Matt Ryan has two years left on his deal, but the Falcons could get out of his contract with a much lighter dead-cap hit next offseason ($15.6 million). In the meantime, why not draft a quarterback with upside and let him learn from Ryan for a full season? Corral didn’t workout at the combine as he recovers from an ankle injury sustained in Ole Miss’ bowl game, but he brings a quick release, a good arm and plenty of mobility to the table. Atlanta’s passing game needs a total revamp, and this pick could be a home run if Corral takes the next step under Ryan’s tutelage.
Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Kansas City allowed 5.9 yards per play in 2021 (30th) and 7.3 yards per pass attempt (24th), and safety Tyrann Mathieu is a free agent. Pass rush, wide receiver and offensive line are all units that could use another contributor, but this one just made too much sense. Hill is a fast riser after a great combine showing (4.38-second 40-yard dash), and he’s a rangy defensive back with versatility. He has the free safety traits to match slot receivers in man coverage and the physicality to support the run like a strong safety. Hill would help contain the vertical passing games of division-mates Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
You won’t find many mock drafts handing the Bengals someone other than an offensive lineman. It’s a glaring problem that led to 74 sacks allowed in 2021 between the regular season and playoffs, and their 48.8% pass block win rate was the NFL’s third worst. That’s disaster waiting to happen when you have one of the game’s brightest young passers in Joe Burrow playing behind that line.
Central Michigan’s Bernhard Raimann is one option, but I love Johnson’s versatility and smoothness in pass pro. He posted a 32-inch vertical jump, 32 reps on the bench press and 7.38 seconds in the three-cone drill — all top-four results among the offensive linemen. Riley Reiff and Quinton Spain are off to free agency, and Johnson is putting in work at center, meaning he could play any of the interior positions for Cincinnati.
Boye Mafe, OLB, Minnesota
Let’s keep chipping away on defense, after giving Detroit safety Kyle Hamilton at No. 2, and cap off Day 1 with yet another combine standout. We expected a big-time workout from Mafe, and he didn’t disappoint. He ran a 4.53 in the 40 and sprung 10-foot-5 in the broad jump at 261 pounds. Mafe’s game is raw and needs development, but he has one of the fastest takeoffs I’ve seen on tape in this class. The arrow is pointing way up on him, and the Lions are searching for a consistent pass-rush presence, especially now that Charles Harris is off to free agency. Detroit’s 30 sacks were No. 30 in the NFL last season. Penn State’s Arnold Ebiketie could be in play here, too.
And as mentioned earlier, the Lions could certainly either trade up for a quarterback or even draft one here. UNC’s Sam Howell and Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder are both still out there.