Covid-weary Britons were today warned that the monkeypox outbreak could get 10 times bigger as another 200 cases were logged in the biggest daily jump yet.
The claim was made by a group of top experts, including members of the same Government advisory committee behind gloomy models used to justify lockdown restrictions.
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine researchers argued it is ‘highly likely’ that another 10,000 people would be sickened with the tropical virus worldwide.
The modelling suggested, however, that any surge in cases among groups other than gay and bisexual men was ‘unlikely’.
Dozens of countries, including the US, Spain and Germany, have been struck by the outbreak — the biggest ever detected outside of Africa to date. Almost all of infections so far have been spotted in the men who have sex with other men community.
Authorities are desperately to contain the tropical virus, amid fears it could become endemic in Europe.
British health bosses reported another 219 infections today, bringing the UK total to 793. London is the country’s virus hotspot.
UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) officials confirmed 216 of the new cases were detected in England, while two were spotted in Scotland and one was confirmed in Northern Ireland.
Officials are urging gay and bisexual men to be aware of new lesions, rashes or scabs and get in contact with a sexual health clinic
The infection often starts with small bumps that scab over and are contagious
The scientists behind the monkeypox modelling include Professor John Edmunds, an LSHTM epidemiologist who was among the most outspoken SAGE members during the Covid outbreak.
Two other study authors are also Government advisers, sitting on the notorious SPI-M modelling committee. It warned of up to 6,000 deaths per day in the run-up to the Christmas just gone, despite the actual peak being 20 times lower.
Without tough interventions, they also warned Omicron could potentially cause daily hospitalisations to breach 10,000 — quadruple the figure that happened in reality.
In their latest modelling, Professor Edmunds and other LSHTM scientists looked at how monkeypox could keep spreading.
Their estimates were based on sexual partnership data in the UK, gathered from a survey of 45,000 people that is conducted every decade.
Monkeypox, which will be renamed because of claims that it is discriminatory towards Africa, is not normally a sexually-transmitted infection.
But it is thought to be the main mode of transmission in the ongoing outbreak.
The virus, first discovered in lab monkeys in the 1950s, can also be spread through touching clothing, bedding or towels used by someone who is infected.
At the time of the modelling on May 31, 728 confirmed and suspected cases had been reported worldwide in more than 25 countries. Since then, almost 3,000 infections have been logged worldwide.
The results, published on pre-print website medRxiv, show that without interventions or changes in sexual behaviour, it is ‘highly likely’ that a ‘major outbreak’ would be seen among men who have sex with men.
A major outbreak was defined as being at least another 10,000 cases, on top of the ones already detected.
The modellers said their findings, which have not been peer-reviewed, show that a ‘small fraction’ of individuals with a ‘disproportionately large’ number of sexual partners could explain the ‘sustained growth’ of monkeypox among men who have sex with men.
Monkeypox likely always had the risk of ‘substantial transmission potential’ among this community, their paper states.
But it has not been able to take off because too few cases have been logged outside of Africa over the past few decades, they said.
However, the team said sustained transmission in other groups is ‘unlikely’.
But they noted that between 10 and 10,000 extra cases could be spotted outside of the men who have sex with men community if lots of this group become infected.
The monkeypox R rate — a term made famous during the pandemic, which reflects the number of people an infected person passes the virus onto — may be ‘substantially greater than one’ which could make it challenging to contain the outbreak, their paper states.
Contact tracing and vaccinating close contacts of infected people — the approaches used in the UK — only work if almost all contacts of an infected person are identified, they warned.
They said experts should identify ‘acceptable and effective’ ways of preventing transmission among men with the highest number of sexual partners who could have a ‘disproportionate effect on transmission overall’.
It comes as the UKHSA today confirmed Britain’s outbreak has grown by 38 per cent since Friday to 793.
Among the 766 cases with confirmed addresses, 498 are in London, 37 are in the South East and 26 are in the North West. All other regions have logged 20 cases or fewer.
Public Health Scotland on Sunday said that all cases appear to be ‘generally mild and not life-threatening’ with no reported deaths in the UK to date.
Monkeypox cases have been aged 37, on average, health bosses said.
The UKHSA advises Britons to contact their sexual health clinic if they have a rash with blisters and have been in close contact with a suspected or confirmed monkeypox case or have been in West or Central Africa in the last three weeks.
As part of efforts to thwart the ever-growing outbreak, both confirmed cases and close contacts are offered the Imvanex jab, which is 85 per cent effective against the virus. The strategy, known as ring vaccination, has been used in the past and is proven to work.
The disease is usually mild and has an incubation period of up to 21 days, meaning it can take three weeks for the tell-tale symptoms to appear.
Symptoms include fever, headache, muscle aches, backache, swollen lymph nodes, chills and exhaustion. A rash can develop, often beginning on the face, which then spreads to other parts of the body including the genitals.
It can, however, kill up to 10 per cent of people it infects. But the milder strain causing the current outbreak has a case-fatality rate of around one in 100 — similar to when Covid first hit.
No deaths linked with the ongoing outbreak have yet been reported.
Outside of the UK, Spain (497), Germany (421) and Portugal (297) have logged the most infections.
Experts have warned monkeypox could become endemic among animals in Europe, as it is in parts of Nigeria, if the virus spreads to pets and wildlife. This would make animals a permanent reservoir of the virus that could infect humans, triggering sporadic outbreaks.