Category Archives: Health

The Pandemic Didn’t Unfold How Dr. Christine Hancock Expected

On Feb. 26,

Christine Hancock

thought Jaime Milton was about to die. Her 48-year-old patient had skipped the dialysis that kept him alive. The day before, she called him six times before he picked up. He was gasping for breath and unable to complete a full sentence.

Dr. Hancock told him he might not live until the next day. He promised to go to the hospital. When he failed to arrive at the emergency room, she called the police. He wouldn’t go with the paramedics who came to his house.

Mr. Milton was on a downward spiral, and Dr. Hancock, a primary-care doctor in Bellingham, Wash., felt powerless to stop it.

A year earlier, at the start of 2020, Mr. Milton had been stable, years after Dr. Hancock helped him get off heroin. He had lost weight and completed treatment for hepatitis C. But, isolated and fearful of Covid-19, he had become anxious and began missing medical appointments and using drugs again. His health had declined rapidly—even though he never caught the viral disease.

“It’s just such a hopeless and helpless feeling,” Dr. Hancock said that day, as she weighed whether to send another ambulance to his house. “I literally do not know what else to do….I care deeply for this man, I’ve taken care of him for over five years. I don’t want him to die.”

When the pandemic started, Dr. Hancock believed it would be a calamity for her patients, many of whom suffered from health conditions that made them vulnerable. She was right, but not for the reasons she thought. In the end, the pandemic’s worst victims weren’t those who had worried her most in the spring of 2020. And they weren’t sickened by Covid-19 itself.

The biggest impact, which became clear only this year, came instead from other health problems that worsened amid the loneliness and stress of the pandemic.

A young girl developed crippling anxiety and compulsive behaviors, sometimes refusing to leave the house. A 65-year-old with schizoaffective disorder stopped taking his medication and had a series of run-ins with police that got him committed to a residential facility. A frail, homebound woman lost her caregiver and couldn’t find a replacement.

So far in 2021, Dr. Hancock has seen more than three times as many deaths among her patients as she did in all of 2020, and none have been from Covid-19.

The Wall Street Journal followed Dr. Hancock for 21 months, along with colleagues, patients, family members and others, to track the wider impact of the pandemic.

Her story shows how the virus put an enormous strain on a healthcare safety net that was already fraying. It left some patients’ non-Covid conditions untreated and placed impossible demands on caregivers like Dr. Hancock who struggle to fill the widening gaps.

The clinic where Dr. Hancock works, part of the nonprofit Sea Mar Community Health Centers, has contended with staffing problems and burnout as exhausted employees left their jobs amid the grind of the virus’s rise and fall and resurgence. Its mental-health service stopped taking new patients for months. Sea Mar, which is federally funded, serves as the primary-care provider for a large population of people who are on Medicaid or uninsured.

Dr. Hancock, an athletic 40-year-old who is the mother of two young children, cares for more than 1,900 patients. She often works past 9 p.m. in addition to being on call during off hours and is regularly double-booked during her 15-minute slots.

I care deeply for this man, I’ve taken care of him for over five years. I don’t want him to die.

Collateral impact from the Covid-19 pandemic is being felt around the U.S., and researchers say data show that patients with disadvantages, such as low incomes and limited access to healthcare, often bear the brunt. American life expectancy dropped sharply in 2020, with the biggest declines among the Latino and Black populations. The shift was driven largely by Covid-19, but also by diabetes and liver disease, among other causes. A study published this April in JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association, pointed to increases in deaths due to Alzheimer’s disease, heart disease and diabetes during parts of last year.

Dr. Hancock’s patients mirror what is happening nationally, said Donald Lloyd-Jones, chair of the department of preventive medicine at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine and president of the American Heart Association.

“We’re going to be living with the ripple effects and the echoes of this pandemic for a long time,” he said. “We’re going to see not only more deaths in the ensuing years, we’ll see a lot more disease in people who are living.”

At the start of March 2020, Seattle was the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S., with schools shutting down and a growing death count tied to the outbreak at a nursing home in Kirkland, Wash.

Bellingham, a city of around 90,000 located about 90 minutes north, still felt distant from the emerging crisis. But Dr. Hancock and others at Sea Mar, a two-story building with a worn-looking pink facade, were bracing for what seemed like the inevitable.

Dr. Hancock found the biggest impact of Covid-19 on her patients came from other health problems that worsened amid the loneliness and stress of the pandemic.

Dr. Hancock arrived there in 2013 after medical school at the University of California, San Francisco, a master’s degree and residency. She deferred her own goal of an academic career when her husband, a geologist, got hired at a nearby university.

Calm and meticulous, she quickly began drawing the most challenging patients, who often became so attached they refused to see other doctors. One periodically dropped off homemade piñatas. A chain-smoking older man crocheted a blanket after her daughter’s birth, its pink yarn bearing the baby’s full name and the strong scent of cigarettes. Dr. Hancock tracked their complex conditions in notes known among the staff for their lucidity and detail.

Mr. Milton was one of her earliest patients, and one of the sickest, with heart failure, gallbladder issues and diabetes in addition to his kidney trouble. During appointments he stared at the floor and mumbled answers to her questions. He had open sores from constantly picking at his rashy skin. He had started taking Vicodin prescribed after a back injury—he used to be a laborer—then OxyContin, then heroin. He had been dependent on various drugs for more than 17 years.

Dr. Hancock “didn’t judge me, she didn’t flinch,” Mr. Milton said. “A lot of doctors will judge you just right off the bat…but she didn’t, not at all.”

In 2017, he began taking Suboxone, a treatment for opioid dependence, and was able to get off heroin. “I’d tell her, ‘I’m having a hard time, will you just talk to me for a few minutes?’ And she’d just talk to me,” he said. Dr. Hancock saved his life, “by being there, no matter what.”

Gradually, he changed. He looked up when they spoke, and smiled for the first time that Dr. Hancock recalled. His clothes were clean, the picked-over scabs gone. He lost 145 pounds and stopped needing insulin. He quit smoking. Dr. Hancock urged him to try for a kidney transplant, a long shot given his history. In early 2020, before the coronavirus arrived, he was treated for a longstanding hepatitis C infection.

On March 10, 2020, an alert popped up on Dr. Hancock’s computer screen, with a headline from the local newspaper: “First case of novel coronavirus in Whatcom County confirmed by local health department.”

Dr. Hancock texted Shannon Boustead, another doctor at Sea Mar, whose mother had recently visited the hospital with a high fever and difficulty breathing.

“Was it your mom?” she asked.

“Yep. Holy shit,” he sent back. He had gone home to quarantine.

Patients largely stopped coming in for routine visits, which moved to phone and video. Dr. Hancock began wearing full scrubs and a mask. Terrified of infecting her husband, 3-year-old daughter and 6-year-old son, she stripped down each night before coming into the house.

“A large number of my patients are probably going to die in the next six months,” she said that March. “It’s a staggering thing to think about.”

Her first patient tested positive on April 4.

Dr. Hancock found her job, and her life, transformed. Her children’s day-care center and school shut down. She and her husband made arrangements with friends to share child care, including hiring a student to take care of Dr. Hancock’s daughter. That left her babysitting two 6-year-olds—her son and a friend—at least one day a week as she faced a growing flood of emails, questions and meetings about Covid-19.

Dr. Hancock made dinner at home with her daughter, Juniper, while her son, Calder, played with the dog.

On April 6, she wrote in a journal she occasionally kept. “I’m barely able to wrap my mind around what I need to do for tomorrow, let alone how I’m going to shepherd my kid through the rest of his kindergarten year…and not commit any medical errors in the process.”

One day, she took her son and his friend to wade in a shallow area of a nearby river. Exhausted, she nodded off, then started awake. The children were safe, but she was terrified that she might have put them at risk.

Another time, when she took them out for a bike ride and lunch, her son’s friend refused to eat his meal. After a long standoff, she threw out the ice cream cone she had bought him for dessert.

“I just felt like literally the worst person,” she said. “I just felt like, wow, I am so unhappy in this moment, this other kid is so unhappy, everything just sucks.”

She didn’t judge me… A lot of doctors will judge you just right off the bat… but she didn’t, not at all.Jaime Milton, one of Dr. Hancock’s patients

Under lockdown, patients were needier than ever, anxiously confiding job losses, marital problems and other worries during virtual visits, as the routines that had kept them stable collapsed. Dr. Hancock became a lifeline for people whose lives had been upended. She created a list of resources for job help, housing and food aid to include with medical instructions. She wrote letters for disability-benefits filings. For one patient, she testified for a jail deferral on the basis of Covid-19 risk.

The lack of in-person visits presented new problems. Many who came in regularly now disappeared. To avoid in-person contact, the clinic wasn’t requiring such frequent urine screening tests for those on medication-assisted treatment for opioid dependence, making it hard to quickly detect when patients relapsed.

On July 7, 2020, Mr. Milton went to Seattle to meet with a kidney-transplant specialist. He had been to the emergency room only once all year and had shown no signs of heroin use. Dr. Hancock read the note from the specialist in her electronic medical record. “He is very motivated,” it said. “The patient expressed that he has turned his life around in the last three years.” The specialist wrote that she would recommend him for the kidney-transplant list.

To Dr. Hancock, it was a moment of hope in a dark time—here was one patient who had truly transformed his life.

In late August, Mr. Milton tested positive for methamphetamine. He started missing appointments. In October, he confessed to Rose Keller, a nurse at the clinic, who had texted him at Dr. Hancock’s request. He had used heroin, and he knew the cost. He could lose his spot on the transplant list.

“just DON’T use again!!” Ms. Keller wrote.

“I’m not going to, I CAN’T use again,” he replied. “I know I screwed up as soon as I used. I worked 3 years to get where I am and now this.”

Mr. Milton kept using heroin. His ex-wife and closest friend, Cindy Treadway, had relapsed too. He was frightened of the virus and isolated from other family members, including their daughter. He stopped outdoor activities he had loved, like fishing and crabbing in nearby Bellingham Bay.

“It got to be too much, the stress of all of it, afraid to go out,” he said. Ms. Keller kept trying to contact him and Dr. Hancock tried to schedule appointments, but he repeatedly skipped them. “I couldn’t look her in the face,” he said.

Dr. Hancock became a lifeline for people whose lives had been upended by the pandemic, creating a list of resources for job help, housing and food aid.

The autumn brought Dr. Hancock some glimmers of normality. On Nov. 12, her son returned to in-person school. Her daughter’s daycare had earlier reopened. “This is amazing, I don’t have anyone asking me for peanut butter crackers,” she said on her son’s second day in a first-grade classroom.

Covid-19 cases in Whatcom County ticked upward as winter began. Dr. Hancock was relieved that it wasn’t worse. The dozens of Covid-19 deaths she feared among her patients hadn’t materialized. In fact, she lost only three in 2020, and none died of Covid-19.

On Christmas Eve, she posted an exuberant picture on Facebook—herself, masked, holding up a white card. She had gotten her first dose of the Moderna vaccine. “I have never been so excited to get a shot, nor so grateful or relieved at the protection it will afford me, my family, and my patients,” she wrote.

After she got her second shot in January, Dr. Hancock managed to enjoy some moments of pre-pandemic life—a long bike ride with a friend, an outing with colleagues for margaritas. To celebrate her 40th birthday at the start of February, her husband had friends and family answer a questionnaire about her.

Her son’s contribution: “My mom’s good at doing stuff really fast. She’s really energetic. She can also be mischievous, which I like.”

Dr. Hancock’s piñata-making patient created a papier-mache SARS-CoV-2, its spikes rendered in pink, purple and blue tissue paper. She brought it home and hung it on a tree branch for her kids to hit with a stick.

The real virus was far harder to beat. Covid-19 case numbers surged to new heights in Whatcom in early 2021, despite the vaccines’ roll out.

At work, Dr. Hancock saw growing signs of the pandemic’s broader damage. Kids had gained weight, some crossing over into dangerous obesity. Though many had returned to at least some in-person school, she saw some struggling with depression and other psychological issues.

On New Year’s Eve, Dr. Hancock examined an 11-year-old patient she hadn’t seen in more than a year. The girl had been an organized, careful child, who took care of tasks such as filling out school forms and making grocery lists, according to her mother, Leah Botton.

During 2020, stuck at home, and hearing constantly of friends infected with the virus in the close-knit Miami, Fla., community where the family used to live, she had begun showing signs of anxiety and compulsive behavior. She would shake, and start knocking her hand against her chest, repeatedly counting. Sometimes she would have meltdowns, screaming, that her mother couldn’t soothe. She was scared to leave the house.

She had received some counseling, but the behavior hadn’t abated. Returning to in-person school had led to panic attacks.

Dr. Hancock offered to prescribe medication and suggested the family find a child psychiatrist—Sea Mar didn’t have one. She thought the girl might have obsessive-compulsive disorder. Mrs. Botton declined medication but agreed to seek a psychiatric evaluation.

On Feb. 1, Elizabeth Whittemore, an 85-year-old, wheelchair-bound woman with heart failure, told Dr. Hancock that she hadn’t left her apartment in a month. She had long been fragile and isolated—Dr. Hancock had once driven to her home to deliver a donated mattress—and recently her longtime caregiver had stopped coming because she was tending to a family member with health problems. The former caregiver’s daughter would buy Ms. Whittemore’s groceries and drop them off, keeping her from starving.

Elizabeth Whittemore, who was isolated without a caregiver during the pandemic, watched television at her apartment last month.

“We can’t abandon this lady,” Dr. Hancock said. She had a growing feeling of foreboding about patients who might be having problems that she didn’t know about. “I know bad things are happening to people,” she said a few days after the appointment with Ms. Whittemore. “I just don’t know all of them, because I can’t keep track of them all.”

She had a staffer reach out to a home-health agency to ask for a replacement caregiver, and the service said it would send someone to evaluate Ms. Whittemore.

After struggling to decide what to do for Mr. Milton on Feb. 26, Dr. Hancock ultimately sent another ambulance. The emergency medical technicians came up to his bedroom, Mr. Milton said. He told them, “Get out of here, I’m fine.” His doctor was really worried about him, one of them said. He sent them away. He didn’t feel like going to the hospital, he said.

The next day, he went to dialysis.

On March 17, when Dr. Hancock arrived at the clinic in the morning, Mr. Milton was sitting in the lobby. He had no appointment, and her schedule was full, but she got him an exam room.

I know bad things are happening to people, but I just don’t know all of them because I can’t keep track of them all.

He didn’t want to use heroin anymore, he told her. He believed he was killing himself and he didn’t want to die. He had been shooting up every day. He had a painful gallbladder attack that scared him. He was still nervous about Covid-19, but, “I knew I had to stop this, it was just getting out of control,” he said later. “I knew it was time.”

Dr. Hancock told him, “I’m really glad you’re here today. I’m glad you made it through.”

On April 6, Mr. Milton got his first Covid-19 vaccine shot. He stopped missing dialysis. His drug screens were coming back clean. He was planning to go crabbing again.

At the very end of a visit with Dr. Hancock on April 22, he mentioned a painful red spot on his skin. A test identified the cause: methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, or MRSA, a dangerous infection. It spread rapidly through his fragile body, despite antibiotics. On May 1, he was admitted to local hospital PeaceHealth St. Joseph Medical Center with septic shock, near death. The intensive care unit doctor told Dr. Hancock Mr. Milton would pull through, and he did. He went home May 10.

Home caregiver Esperanza Rosas helped Ms. Whittemore use a pulse oximeter.

The next day, May 11, a section called “Post Mortem” on the screen of Dr. Hancock’s electronic medical record was bolded, signaling there had been a new death among her patients.

It was a 68-year-old man, diagnosed with cancer and kidney failure, who had a heart attack and, in pain with little hope of recovery, chose to halt dialysis and move to hospice care. She hadn’t seen him since September and he had missed two appointments with her since.

Five days later, she got another death notice. This time, it was a 65-year-old woman who had died from liver failure due to alcohol use. An alcoholic who had been sober for more than a year, sustained by monthly visits to the clinic, she had switched to phone appointments during 2020. In January, she had stopped responding

The death was the sixth among her patients this year. Each time, Dr. Hancock called a family member or sent a card with a note of condolence.

The deaths had different causes, but Dr. Hancock saw a common thread. Many were fragile patients who hadn’t been getting the regular care that had kept them alive.

Many of Dr. Hancock’s patients are on Medicaid or uninsured.

On May 17, as she was sitting in her car, Dr. Hancock got a call on the clinic’s after-hours line about one of her patients, Bob Wysocki. His sister, Jeanne Koetje, was desperately seeking help for the 65-year-old, who had schizoaffective disorder and diabetes. Mr. Wysocki had been behaving erratically for weeks, seemingly not taking his medications and sometimes impaired by alcohol. He had attempted to illegally cross the border into Canada at one point and his car was seized.

On May 15, he had ended up in the local emergency room for the third time in the past few weeks and he had been swearing and throwing water. The designated crisis responder had said he should be admitted, but there were no beds, according to Mrs. Koetje and notes later reviewed by Dr. Hancock. He was allowed to leave.

PeaceHealth officials said that under state law, a designated crisis responder can’t put a hold on a psychiatric patient without an available bed. The hospital’s inpatient behavioral-health unit “runs near capacity all the time,” said Doug Koekkoek, chief physician executive of PeaceHealth. “So if you catch us on a particular day with a particular mix of patients, we may not have any availability.” A hospital spokeswoman declined to comment on Mr. Wysocki’s case, citing privacy rules.

Dr. Hancock was shocked at what she heard from Mrs. Koetje. Mr. Wysocki had been her patient for six years. A tall, gentle man, who enjoyed cooking and visits to a local casino, he had been stable for decades, living in his own mobile home. He had regularly helped with the care of his mother, who lived with Mrs. Koetje and her husband.

In the fall of 2020, he began smoking, after quitting six years earlier, soon going through more than a pack a day. In February 2021, he told Dr. Hancock that he was thinking of stopping his psychiatric medication. She urged him not to do it. She tried to get him in for appointments that spring, but he missed them.

On May 18, after hearing from Mrs. Koetje, Dr. Hancock called the local mobile mental-health crisis unit and asked if he could be evaluated, saying he was likely a danger to himself.

Photos of Bob Wysocki as a young adult, left, and fishing.

That same day, Mr. Wysocki ended up in the ER again after employees of a local grocery store found him lying on the ground and called 911.

The next day, May 19, Dr. Hancock saw Mr. Milton, with Ms. Treadway, his ex-wife. He had been home from the hospital for more than a week, but he hadn’t truly recovered. The MRSA infection hadn’t been cleared, and he had newly diagnosed heart-valve disease and liver damage. He was in constant pain, but he hadn’t gone back to heroin, he said. He didn’t want to die a junkie, he told her.

Dr. Hancock now believed that with multiple organ systems failing, Mr. Milton was unlikely to ever fully recover. She also felt Mr. Milton’s own attitude toward treatment had changed.

“Normally, every conversation you have when you walk into a doctor’s office is how are we going to make x, y, and z better,” she said. Now, she gently asked if he wanted to consider palliative or hospice care at his home, which would focus on easing the pain. It wasn’t a death sentence, she said. But if his aim was to improve the time he had left, it was likely the best option. Crying, Mr. Milton and Ms. Treadway agreed.

Ms. Keller called repeatedly to get a palliative-care provider to Mr. Milton’s house. Dr. Hancock called too, and was told by PeaceHealth that a visit would occur the week after Memorial Day, May 31. PeaceHealth didn’t schedule it for that week, though.

PeaceHealth said home palliative-care visits in Bellingham rose to around 300 in the first eight months of 2021, compared with 180 in all of 2020 and 226 in all of 2019. The hospital hasn’t been able to hire as many providers as it needs, said Dr. Koekkoek, and it generally takes weeks for a patient to be seen. A PeaceHealth spokeswoman declined to comment on Mr. Milton’s case, citing patient privacy rules.

On June 8, Dr. Hancock got a notice that Mr. Milton was back in the ICU with dangerously low blood pressure. He had fallen while getting out of bed, screaming when he hurt his back and injured his eye, which was filled with blood.

It was exactly the situation that Dr. Hancock tried to avoid—putting him back in the hospital, his pain worse than ever. “That’s such a failure,” she said. “I feel like we pulled out all the stops to get him the services he needed, and it hasn’t happened.”

Ms. Whittemore called an ambulance to her apartment because she was struggling to breathe.

That same week, in early June, Ms. Whittemore, the wheelchair-bound heart-failure patient, had called an ambulance to her apartment because she was struggling to breathe. “For months I didn’t have anybody to help me,” she said in an interview. “Los llamé como pude,” she said in Spanish, meaning, “I called them with what little strength I had.”

She also ended up in the ICU. Dr. Hancock and others at the clinic had been trying to get her a new caregiver since February, calling repeatedly, with Dr. Hancock at one point offering her personal cell number to a case manager at the Northwest Regional Council, an agency that arranges home care for Medicaid recipients like Ms. Whittemore.

This year, the agency has struggled more than ever to fill positions, said Dan Murphy, its executive director, who declined to comment on Ms. Whittemore’s specific case. “It’s the worst that we’ve seen,” he said, as the pandemic intensified existing issues. Some caregivers left the field or dialed back their availability, leading to longer gaps for patients, he said. It’s even harder to find caregivers who speak Spanish, Ms. Whittemore’s primary language.

Nationally, staff shortages have reached an all-time high during the pandemic, according to the Home Care Association of America, an industry group.

Dr. Hancock’s clinic was short-staffed, too. Out of 11 healthcare-provider positions, three were empty by early summer. The clinic manager left in March. The director of the medication-assisted treatment program left in May, partly to be closer to family who hadn’t been able to see his new baby during the pandemic. An interpreter who had been screening people entering the clinic was stressed by the work and left that same month. A manager of a small satellite clinic also quit, and her replacement, who lived in Canada, had her visa denied because of pandemic-related restrictions.

Dr. Hancock’s boss was retiring and Dr. Hancock was taking on a new role as a medical director. She had no open appointments for months, and couldn’t get through patients’ litanies of untreated conditions during their 15-minute slots.

Dr. Hancock’s clinic has been short-staffed during the pandemic, in line with a national shortage of medical workers.

During her daughter’s 5th birthday party one Sunday in June, she was paged seven times over two hours. She was out on a scavenger hunt in her neighborhood with 10 bike-riding kids when she took a call from an operator. A patient needed an urgent call back about his bloody discharge. Dr. Hancock waited until the scavenger hunt was over.

The clinic’s mental-health counseling service had three open positions for therapists by June. Therapists were leaving to go into private practice because new pandemic-era flexibility in billing and remote care opened up new opportunities, according to Claudia D’Allegri, Sea Mar’s chief behavioral-health officer.

One of two behavioral healthcare providers who could prescribe medications had a baby at home in Canada, then was blocked from returning to the U.S. because of pandemic restrictions. The remaining prescriber, overbooked, stopped seeing new patients unless they were in crisis or discharged from a hospital.

A Whatcom County report on the public-health impact of the pandemic, issued in July 2021, found “increased demand for behavioral healthcare and ongoing shortage of providers; limited services and long wait lists.” It said the average weekly demand for mental-health-crisis services provided by a local agency rose by more than 70%.

Dr. Hancock found herself writing prescriptions for desperate patients who she felt needed psychiatric expertise—lithium for a mother with a history of bipolar disorder, an antipsychotic for a schizophrenic man who showed up with a knife at the clinic, threatening to hurt himself if his lapsed prescriptions weren’t renewed.

She was also still trying to get help for the 11-year-old with signs of obsessive behavior. In months of calling around the state, the mother, Mrs. Botton, whose family is covered by a Medicaid plan, hadn’t found an appointment. “They’re like, ‘with Covid, we’re just overwhelmed, we just don’t have any vacancies right now,’ ” Mrs. Botton said. “That’s the line…it’s everyone.”

In May, desperate to get through to someone, Dr. Hancock called the psychiatric on-call consult line for Seattle Children’s Hospital. She said she was at her wits’ end and that the girl needed help right away. The psychiatrist mentioned an outpatient group for children with OCD, which was full.

The wait lists for psychiatric care for children are incredibly long, both for Seattle Children’s Hospital and elsewhere, said Alysha Thompson, a psychologist and clinical director at Seattle Children’s. Demand rose sharply at the start of 2021, she said, and “we just don’t have enough people.” A Seattle Children’s spokeswoman declined to comment on Mrs. Botton’s daughter’s case.

They’re like, you know, with Covid, we’re overwhelmed, we just don’t have any vacancies right now. That’s the line — and it’s everyone.Leah Botton, mother of one of Dr. Hancock’s patients

At 4:30 a.m. on June 29, Mr. Milton went back to the ER in an ambulance, struggling to breathe. His kidneys, liver and heart were shutting down. That night in the hospital, he was hallucinating and tried to rip the IV from his arm. On June 30, he started vomiting blood.

A little after 1 p.m., he died. His daughter and Ms. Treadway were both with him at the end.

Ms. Treadway immediately texted Ms. Keller, the Sea Mar nurse: “He’s gone Rose!!!! My baby’s gone.”

Dr. Hancock was in the middle of seeing patients when Ms. Keller messaged her. That night, she called Ms. Treadway, who picked up the phone and began sobbing. “He was always afraid of dying in the hospital, and that’s exactly what happened,” Ms. Treadway said later in an interview.

Dr. Hancock felt sad, but also angry and frustrated. “If he hadn’t relapsed, if he hadn’t been under all this stress, and been properly monitored, and he had gotten a kidney transplant, he might have been on a completely different trajectory,” she said. “He might have had a 10- or 20-year life expectancy instead of a six-month life expectancy….Why didn’t he get that next chance?”

At the end, Mr. Milton had kept control over one thing that was important to him: There were no signs he had started using heroin again.

If he hadn’t relapsed, if he hadn’t been under all this stress… he might be on a completely different trajectory.

On July 7, a staffer in Dr. Hancock’s office reached out to inform Mr. Wysocki of a coming appointment. He had spent weeks in a residential mental-health crisis-recovery facility. The facility hadn’t shared its treatment or discharge plan with Sea Mar, leaving Dr. Hancock in the dark about his progress.

Instead of reaching Mr. Wysocki, the staffer got Mrs. Koetje, his sister. Eight days earlier, after he didn’t answer his phone or his door, Mrs. Koetje had crawled through a window of his home. Inside, she found his body, sprawled on the floor. A few days before, he had been discharged from the residential center with a list of medications and no home help. His cause of death wasn’t clear.

Dr. Hancock felt awful. She wondered, if she had known about the circumstances of Mr. Wysocki’s discharge, could she have scrambled to get him a home-health aide or some other help?

It turned out he had died on June 29, one day before Mr. Milton, who was now the eighth of Dr. Hancock’s patients to pass away in 2021. Two more patients have died since then, one from heart failure and the other from breast cancer, bringing the total to 10 by late November. In 2019, before the pandemic, she had lost only three, the same number as in 2020.

A photo of Mr. Wysocki with his mother among other mementos at the home of his sister, Jeanne Koetje.

Dr. Hancock is still trying to find a source of psychiatric care for the young girl. Her family recently pulled her out of in-person school because of her panic attacks and other symptoms.

Ms. Whittemore, the homebound patient, finally got a new home caregiver in July, but returned to the hospital and then was discharged to a nursing home. Recently, her longtime former caregiver has returned, which allowed her to leave the nursing home. Ms. Whittemore said she felt happier being home, in her care.

The staffing crunch at Dr. Hancock’s clinic and its mental-health service eased somewhat, with two new doctors coming on board in October and newly added mental-health counselors clearing the backlog of new patients. But some unvaccinated employees left when a state Covid-19 vaccination mandate for healthcare workers took full effect in October.

Ms. Treadway has been struggling with deep depression since Mr. Milton’s death, staying largely in his old bedroom with an urn holding his ashes sitting on the dresser. She often listens to “Whiskey Lullaby,” a song about a tragic couple who drink themselves to death, which she and Mr. Milton had liked to sing together.

She has kept in close touch with Dr. Hancock and Ms. Keller, who have pushed to get her mental-health care. At her first appointment with Dr. Hancock after Mr. Milton’s death, she started crying. Dr. Hancock asked if she could give her a hug. It would help them both, she said.

Washington’s Bellingham Bay, where Mr. Milton used to go crabbing, last month.

Write to Anna Wilde Mathews at anna.mathews@wsj.com

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Cold, runny nose, headache, London cases shows

Shoppers wearing face masks as a preventive measure against the spread of covid-19 seen walking along Oxford Circus in London.

SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images

LONDON — Symptoms associated with the omicron Covid-19 variant could be similar to those that normally accompany a cold, but experts are warning people that they should not underestimate the risks posed by the more transmissible variant.

One British study has now suggested that omicron infections could be associated with symptoms that make it easy to mistake it for an everyday illness like a cold.

The ZOE COVID Study, which analyses thousands of Covid symptoms uploaded to an app by the British public, looked this week at symptoms associated with Covid cases in London that were recorded over two separate weeks in October and December, that is, before (as far as we know) and after omicron was spreading in the capital.

This initial analysis found similarities between the delta and the omicron variant, suggesting the latter hasn’t mutated back into the more flu-like symptoms of previous Covid strains. The team said that the top five symptoms reported in the ZOE app in those two different weeks were:

  1. Runny nose
  2. Headache
  3. Fatigue (either mild or severe)
  4. Sneezing
  5. Sore throat

London was selected for the ZOE analysis due to the higher prevalence of omicron compared to other regions. The omicron variant is already the dominant variant in the capital and will soon account for nearly all infections in the capital and wider U.K.

Experts predict this phenomenon is likely to be repeated across other countries around the globe. This time, with the omicron variant, cases could be harder to spot, however.

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, said that there was a risk that potential omicron cases could well be mistaken for minor colds.

“As our latest data shows, omicron symptoms are predominantly cold symptoms, runny nose, headache, sore throat and sneezing, so people should stay at home as it might well be Covid,” Spector said in ZOE’s latest report Thursday.

“Hopefully people now recognise the cold-like symptoms which appear to be the predominant feature of omicron,” he added.

Spector noted, as have other British experts on Covid, that the omicron looks set to be the dominant strain in the U.K. by Christmas, with many people now questioning whether the U.K. could go into a lockdown in the new year.

“In the New Year cases could hit a peak higher than anything we’ve ever seen before,” Spector noted, although he hoped that there could be some reversal of a rise in cases in London as people are encouraged by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and leading health experts to curtail their social mixing, work from home and wear face masks.

What we know of omicron

It would be a big mistake to underestimate the risks posed by the omicron variant, despite some evidence that it causes milder symptoms more akin to a cold than flu.

Experts have judged omicron as being far more transmissible than the delta variant and believe it will soon become the dominant variant internationally. Omicron’s rise to prominence is remarkable given the fact it was only designated as a “variant of concern” by the World Health Organization on Nov. 26, two days after South Africa reported that it had detected it.

Early, small studies showed that while it was more virulent than the delta variant, it might cause less severe infections but that remains to be seen at a wider, real-world level with an infected person’s age (younger people tend to experience milder Covid infections), general state of health and vaccination status (including when they were fully vaccinated as we know immunity wanes after six months) being factors in how an illness is experienced.

The South African doctor who first spotted the variant among her patients has said that the initial symptoms she saw in her own surgery were “extremely mild” but this was observational evidence on a small group of people.

Vaccine makers have said that the variant undermines the efficacy of a full course of Covid vaccination but that a booster shot helps to restore much of the shots’ protection against severe infection, hospitalization and death.

Rising hospitalization

Experts are warning that a rise in hospitalizations is now inevitable given the increased transmissibility of omicron.

South Africa has seen a rise in hospitalizations (although the majority of admissions have been unvaccinated people) and the U.K. is seeing an increase too, with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson noting on Wednesday that the country was now seeing what he called “the inevitable increase in hospitalizations, up by 10% nationally week on week and up by almost a third in London.”

To date, there have been just over 10,000 cases of omicron in the U.K., with case numbers doubling every two days or less, and experts predict this is a vast understatement of the true number of omicron infections.

The first two confirmed U.K. cases of the variant were announced on Nov. 27 and they had links to travel to South Africa. Although soon after, cases of community transmission were confirmed, meaning the variant was likely circulating earlier.

Omicron is making its presence felt in the U.K. with Covid cases surging prompting the government to race to get booster shots into people’s arms. On Wednesday, the U.K. reported its highest number of Covid cases since the pandemic began with 78,610 new infections.

England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, called on Wednesday for “serious caution” over hospitalization data, particularly in South Africa, that suggested omicron might cause a milder disease. There, he said, immunity levels were different among the population due to a recent wave of delta infections.

He noted that more data was still needed on hospitalizations, severe disease and deaths but that “all the things that we do know [about omicron] are bad.”

Dr. David Nabarro, the World Health Organization’s special envoy on Covid-19, later told Sky News Wednesday that there was a “very serious situation indeed” in the U.K.

“The rise that you’re seeing in the U.K. today is just the beginning of an extraordinary acceleration,” he said.

“There are two epidemics going on; delta and omicron. And it is an emergency situation for the British health service. It will get extremely serious within the next two weeks, perhaps quicker.”

Nabarro added the spread of the omicron variant was “serious in the U.K., it’s serious in Europe, and it’s serious for the world.”

“We’re concerned that people are dismissing omicron as mild,” he said. “Even if omicron does cause less severe disease the sheer number of cases will once again overwhelm health systems.

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What’s next with COVID? Dr. Fauci offers new prediction

What will happen next with the omicron coronavirus variant? It might become the country’s most dominant COVID-19 strain, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN Tuesday that the omicron variant is spreading fast, blazing its way through the United States and countries throughout the world.

  • “The real question is, is that an inherent diminution of virulence of the virus or is it because there are so many people in the population who have already been infected and now have residual post-infection immunity — which is not protecting them from getting infected, but is protecting them from getting severe disease?” Fauci said.

Fauci said the U.S. will learn more when omicron makes its way to the United States and starts to spread quickly.

  • “Whatever it is, the disease seems to be less severe. Whether it’s inherently less pathogenic as a virus or whether there’s more protection in the community, we’re just going to have to see when it comes in the United States. And for sure … it is going to be dominant in the United States, given its doubling time,” Fauci said.

The omicron variant of the novel coronavirus has been making its way throughout the world, and scientists are only beginning to understand what it can do. The omicron variant can cause less severe COVID-19 symptoms compared to the earlier COVID-19 variant, according to The Washington Post. But the omicron variant could be more resistant to COVID-19 vaccines.

Experts have maintained that getting fully vaccinated and getting a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot can protect people from the omicron variant, as I wrote for the Deseret News.

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Fentanyl Invades More Illicit Pills, With Deadly Consequences

Zachary Didier took what looked like a prescription pain pill just after Christmas last year, according to his parents. It contained an illicit form of the powerful opioid fentanyl, which they say killed the 17-year-old Californian.

His death was one of a record 100,000 fatal overdoses in a year-long period through April that have demonstrated how the nation’s illegal drug supply is becoming more toxic and dangerous. A bootleg version of fentanyl being made mainly by Mexican drug cartels is spreading to more corners of the U.S., increasingly inside fake pills taken by people who in some cases believe they are consuming less-potent drugs.

Zachary Didier in spring 2019. His parents say an illicit form of fentanyl killed the 17-year-old late last year.



Photo:

Allene Salerno/Leniespictures

“It robs you of any chance to get red flags,” said Laura Didier, Zachary’s mother. His parents said they didn’t know he was using pills recreationally before he died.

Other dangerous opioids are also surfacing in the drug supply, researchers say, continuing a long-running cat-and-mouse game as suppliers and users try to stay ahead of law enforcement. Fatal overdoses involving the combination of fentanyl with stimulants like cocaine and methamphetamines are also rising, research shows.

Federal authorities say they are encountering more pills passing for medications such as oxycodone that contain fentanyl. By late September, they had seized more than 9.5 million fake pills, many containing fentanyl, a haul higher than in the two prior years combined, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration.

“The supply of these pills is going up exponentially,” said Joseph Palamar, an associate professor and drug epidemiologist at New York University Langone Health. “They are easy to transport and difficult to track. Pills are the ultimate fake out. You can fake out your parents, your friends, your partner, law enforcement.”

The mass production of such pills by Mexican cartels has escalated the threat, according to the DEA. Pill-related deaths are particularly common in the western U.S., a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report said Tuesday. Fentanyl appears to be gaining ground there after surfacing mainly in eastern states for years.

Fentanyl is made from chemicals, rather than the opium-poppy cultivation required to produce heroin. It can also be 50 times more powerful than heroin.

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Pills containing fentanyl are often made to look like less-powerful prescription opioids that can be harder to obtain. Fentanyl can also show up in tablets masquerading as other kinds of drugs, like benzodiazepines, a class of sometimes-abused medication used to treat anxiety and other issues. Users with no tolerance to opioids can end up ingesting an extremely powerful dose. Some advocates for those killed consider hidden fentanyl deaths poisonings.

Toxicologists and law-enforcement authorities are engaged in an ever-evolving effort to spot, and then outlaw, different synthetic opioids. Several years ago these were often fentanyl analogues that faded after the DEA put them on its schedule of illegal drugs, toxicologists said. There is a legitimate form of fentanyl sold to treat pain. The illegal market is largely fueled by illicit forms, authorities say.

Drug samples are analyzed for fentanyl in Sacramento, Calif.



Photo:

Andri Tambunan for The Wall Street Journal

Another class of powerful opioids known as nitazenes cropped up in recent years, and sometimes show up with fentanyl in toxicology samples from overdose victims. The drugs can be 10 times as potent as fentanyl. Washington, D.C.’s Department of Forensic Sciences recently found two different nitazene drugs while testing residue from needles at local needle-exchange programs. The city this year recorded about 36 opioid overdoses a month through August, compared with 17 a month as recently as 2018.

“There’s definitely a case to be made the opioid supply is getting more toxic,” said Alex Krotulski, associate director at the nonprofit Center for Forensic Science Research & Education, which maintains a public early-warning system for new synthetic drugs.

Fentanyl was found this fall in marijuana that had been used by a person who survived an overdose in Connecticut. Law enforcement say they are trying to determine whether the mix was user-driven or caused by accidental ingestion.

Addiction experts are in wide agreement on the most effective way to help opioid addicts: Medication-assisted treatment. But most inpatient rehab facilities in the U.S. don’t offer this option. In this video from 2017, WSJ’s Jason Bellini reports on why the medication option is controversial, and in many places, hard to come by. Image: Ryno Eksteen and Thomas Williams

Dr. Krotulski said accidental cross-contamination between fentanyl and other kinds of drugs is rare. But any encounter with unsuspected fentanyl can be dangerous, said Bryce Pardo, a Rand Corp. researcher who focuses on drug policy.

“Now, if you’re a casual consumer, partying on the weekends, it can be the case that someone hands out pills—you overdose and die,” he said.

Even knowing fentanyl is present may not protect an experienced user. Illegally made pills may contain unpredictable and poorly mixed amounts of fentanyl. “These are not pharmacists,” Dr. Pardo said.

Joshua Arnds in 2017. In September, his mother found him in his room, his body cold; he died from a fentanyl overdose at 19.



Photo:

Tawny Arnds

Joshua Arnds, who lived in the Sacramento area, knew he was using illicit pills containing fentanyl but believed he could control the dose, according to his mother, Tawny Arnds. Joshua overdosed several times, including one last December that hospitalized him and led to a debilitating arm injury, despite saying repeatedly he would stop because of the danger, Ms. Arnds said.

“One time, when he had an overdose, he said ‘I just miscalculated,’” she recalled.

She believes Joshua struggled with stress and was dogged by brain and spinal injuries that may date to a childhood soccer-field collision. In September, she found Joshua in his room, his body cold; he died from a fentanyl overdose at 19. There was powder and a knife on his desk and pills in his pocket, she said.

When Zachary Didier died suddenly at home in the Sacramento area, investigators said an undetected health issue was possible, his father, Chris Didier, said. They also suggested fentanyl.

Zachary Didier, in red, with his parents in early 2020, when he starred in his school’s production of ‘High School Musical.’



Photo:

Laura Didier

“We were baffled, we were confused,” Mr. Didier said.

Toxicology confirmed fentanyl in his system, and information on his phone helped show he had purchased pills he believed were legitimate, Placer County, Calif., District Attorney Morgan Gire said. Virgil Xavier Bordner is facing charges including involuntary manslaughter for allegedly selling the drugs. His attorney said he plans to plead not guilty.

Zachary’s parents said he paid a terrible price for experimenting with something so risky. “He was one of those kids that encountered something deadly right away,” Ms. Didier said.

Three months after he died, college acceptance letters began arriving.

Write to Jon Kamp at jon.kamp@wsj.com and Julie Wernau at Julie.Wernau@wsj.com

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US hospitals brace for potential Omicron surge in January | Coronavirus

A wave of new Omicron cases is beginning to surge in America and could peak as early as January, the Centers for Disease Controls (CDC) has warned, as states are scrambling to prepare for overloaded hospitals. The US has passed 800,000 deaths, including 1 in 100 Americans over the age of 65.

The Omicron variant accounted for nearly 3% of Covid cases in the US as of Saturday – up from only 0.4% the week before, according to data from the CDC. The variant is expected to continue rising rapidly, based on the experiences of other countries and could be dominant within weeks.

“I suspect that those numbers are going to shoot up dramatically in the next couple of weeks,” Céline Gounder, infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist at New York University and Bellevue Hospital, told reporters on Wednesday. She expects an Omicron wave to peak in late January and then come down sometime in February.

In a meeting with state health leaders on Tuesday, the CDC presented two scenarios, based on models, for how the variant might drive infections in the next few weeks and months. Omicron and Delta cases could peak as soon as January or a smaller surge of Omicron could happen in the spring.

It’s unclear which variant, Delta or Omicron, will dominate in the next few months or if they will coexist, Gounder said. Regardless, “we anticipate an increase in hospitalizations, an increase in deaths and an increase in the burden on the health care system over the next couple of months.”

The US was already in the grips of a Delta wave that began before the Thanksgiving holiday, and officials fear that travel and gatherings over holidays like Christmas and New Year’s could add explosive growth to an already strained situation.

Schools across the US are seeing rises in cases, and some are closing early or cutting back on in-person activities. In New York, Cornell University reported 903 cases among students this week – many of them cases of the Omicron variant among fully vaccinated people. The school closed early and went virtual.

In several states, hospitals are already close to being overwhelmed. In Michigan, intensivists are now volunteering to work for free in ICUs, one doctor reports.

“Health care systems need to have a plan in place for what will likely be a surge in hospitalizations in the coming weeks,” Gounder said. “What are staffing plans, particularly over the holidays, when staff are going to want to take some time off themselves?” That may involve delaying elective procedures to reallocate staff, and working with agencies to bring in travel nurses and specialists as needed, she said.

Public health officials should ramp up testing and surveillance across the country, she said.

Some of the funds from the American Rescue Plan may be used at the state and local level for purchasing rapid tests, as Massachusetts and Colorado have begun doing. With Omicron, frequent testing may be more important than it was with previous variants, Gounder said.

“Omicron has an even shorter incubation period of two to three days. If you want to have a reasonable chance of catching most of those infections and being able to do something about it, you really need to be testing every day.”

Between 15 and 30% of all positive tests should be sequenced to understand which variants are spreading across the country, Gounder said. “We’ve dramatically ramped up the volume of testing, but we’re not where we need to be and it’s still a bit patchy across the country.” Wastewater surveillance can also be a “really useful tool to have your finger on the pulse of what’s coming and how quickly.”

Joe Biden’s national plan for addressing Omicron specifically excludes restrictions like stay-at-home orders and the majority of states have seen their local health powers significantly curtailed during the pandemic, making it more difficult to enact emergency measures to slow the spread of the virus.

Continuing to ramp up vaccinations, including initial doses and booster shots, will also be important to battling current and present waves. That will take a concerted campaign to educate the public on why it’s important, for instance, to vaccinate newly eligible children.

Improving ventilation and air filtration is also important, and so is wearing high-quality masks, Gounder said. “People know about masks. They may not know, however, that KN-95s and KF-94s would be the preferred mask. How do you get them? How do you make sure they’re the right kind?“

It is still too early to tell if Omicron is more or less deadly than previous variants. “The virulence really depends on the age of the person we’re talking about, as well as other demographics, but age is probably the most important one,” Gounder said. “With the early data coming out of South Africa, much of that was in young, relatively healthy, college-student-aged people.”

But the evidence available does indicate the variant is more transmissible and immune-evasive, making infection more likely among those who are vaccinated or have recovered from earlier bouts with the virus. In the New York and New Jersey health zone, for instance, Omicron is present in 13% of cases.

A new study on previous variants found that 40% of people who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 are asymptomatic. Younger people are more likely not to have any symptoms, with 60% of people under 20 never developing any symptoms – but they are still able to pass the virus on.

Nearly two years into the coronavirus outbreak, people are tired – of the virus, of staying home, of schools closing unexpectedly and hospitals canceling elective surgeries. But Gounder warned against complacency as cases surge and health systems buckle.

“This is exhausting,” she said. For “those of us who are on the frontlines, whether in health care or public health, this is something we’re going to be dealing with for decades to come. This is our new normal – quite literally, this is our life.”



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Top Philly health official urges people to avoid holiday gatherings as COVID-19 cases spike in Pa. and N.J. – The Philadelphia Inquirer

  1. Top Philly health official urges people to avoid holiday gatherings as COVID-19 cases spike in Pa. and N.J. The Philadelphia Inquirer
  2. Philadelphia Health Commissioner Dr. Cheryl Bettigole issues concern amid rising COVID-19 case counts WPVI-TV
  3. Philly health commissioner advises against holiday gatherings WHYY
  4. Philadelphia officials urge against inter-household Christmas gatherings amid COVID-19 case spike FOX 29 Philadelphia
  5. Don’t have indoor Christmas parties, Philly’s top health official says amid COVID-19 surge The Philadelphia Inquirer
  6. View Full Coverage on Google News

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Vaccines Prevent Severe Disease From Omicron, New Studies Say

A flurry of new laboratory studies indicate that vaccines, and especially booster shots, may offer protection against the worst outcomes from the fast-spreading Omicron coronavirus variant. The highly mutated virus, however, will still cause many breakthrough infections in vaccinated people and in those who have been infected with older versions of the virus, according to the research.

At a World Health Organization meeting on Wednesday, scientists reported on several studies suggesting that T cells in vaccinated people can put up a strong defense against the variant, which could help prevent severe disease, hospitalization and death.

Also on Wednesday, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, President Biden’s top medical adviser for the coronavirus response, shared preliminary data from his institute’s analysis of the Moderna vaccine. While two shots produced a negligible antibody response against Omicron in the laboratory, the protection shot up after a third dose, he said.

Other researchers at the W.H.O. meeting presented similar results, showing that booster shots of either Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccines lifted antibodies back to levels believed high enough to offer strong protection against infection.

Though the research is based on preliminary observations of cells in the laboratory, it is nevertheless a welcome departure from a torrent of worrying new data about Omicron. Over the past week, it has become increasingly clear that Omicron can deftly evade antibodies, part of the body’s first line of defense, which probably explains why infections with the variant have exploded in many countries. But antibodies are not the only important players in a person’s immune response to the virus. T cells have their own role.

“The good news is that T cell responses are largely maintained to Omicron,” said Wendy Burgers of the University of Cape Town during a presentation of new research she and her colleagues have carried out in recent days.

Omicron infections are happening more frequently in two groups of people who carry antibodies: those who have received shots, as well as those who aren’t vaccinated but have recovered from an earlier infection with the coronavirus.

This week, scientists in South Africa reported that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine were 33 percent effective against an Omicron infection, down from about 80 percent during what Dr. Fauci called “the pre-Omicron era.” The study found that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine offered 70 percent protection against severe hospitalization and death, down from about 95 percent before Omicron was detected.

At Wednesday’s W.H.O. meeting, one scientist after another presented similar laboratory findings showing that vaccine-induced antibodies performed much worse against Omicron than against other variants.

But boosters seem to provide enough extra antibodies to lessen these infections. Dr. Fauci described experiments at the National Institutes of Health, in which scientists took blood serum from people who had two doses of the Moderna vaccine as well as from others who had a third dose. The researchers then mixed the serum with viruses engineered to carry Omicron’s surface proteins.

These “pseudoviruses” evaded many antibodies from people who had received two doses of Moderna, but the boosters produced such high levels of antibodies that the viruses were blocked from invading cells.

“So the message remains clear: If you are unvaccinated get vaccinated, and particularly in the arena of Omicron, if you are fully vaccinated, get your booster shot,” Dr. Fauci said.

Dr. Fauci’s admonition comes as Biden administration officials are bracing for a potential wave of Omicron infections that could overwhelm the health care system. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned recently that the percentage of coronavirus cases in the United States caused by the Omicron variant had increased sharply and might portend a significant surge in infections as soon as next month. The Delta variant remains by far the dominant version across the United States.

In anticipation of that wave, the administration is trying to encourage all Americans who are eligible — those 16 and older who received their second vaccine dose at least six months ago — to get their booster shots. About 27 percent of fully vaccinated Americans have also had booster shots, according to the C.D.C.

Many countries are rushing boosters to their populations, but Omicron is spreading so fast it may well outstrip even the best efforts.

“The projected transmission rates, if borne out, do not give us much time for interventions,” Phil Krause, a former vaccine regulator at the Food and Drug Administration, said at the W.H.O. meeting.

That prospect has led many scientists to hope that T cells will serve as an effective backup when antibodies fail. If these immune cells can fight Omicron, they may prevent many infections from turning into severe disease.

After a cell is infected with the coronavirus, T cells can learn to recognize fragments of viral proteins that end up on the cell’s outer surface. The T cells then kill the infected cell, or alert the immune system to launch a stronger attack against the virus.

Dr. Alessandro Sette, an immunologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology, and Andrew Redd of the National Institutes of Health reported that despite Omicron’s many mutations, most of the protein fragments recognized by T cells are identical to those of other variants.

Those findings suggest that T cells trained by vaccines or previous infections will respond aggressively to Omicron, rather than standing by. “It appears the T cell response is largely preserved,” Dr. Sette said.

Dr. Burgers and her colleagues tested that possibility by collecting T cells from 16 people vaccinated with two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and exposing those T cells to protein fragments from the Omicron variant. The scientists found that the response of the T cells to the variant was about 70 percent as powerful as their response to the original form of the virus.

A number of scientists at the meeting cautioned that these data come from studying cells in a laboratory, known as in vitro experiments. It will take a few more weeks of examining infections in people before it becomes clear how well T cells prevent severe disease.

“We don’t know yet what these in vitro findings actually mean for disease severity,” said Nora Gerhards, a virologist at Wageningen University in the Netherlands. “And that’s what it’s all about. Because in the end we want to prevent a collapse of the health care systems in our countries.”

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Arrival of omicron in Oregon has researchers warning of another wave of COVID-19 infections

Hospitals in Oregon are still understaffed and struggling.

And now they’re facing a new challenge: planning for omicron, the new variant of COVID-19 that’s upending what we know about the pandemic.

The first three cases of omicron were detected in Oregon just on Monday.

Now, local scientists are warning that omicron could become the dominant variant in the state within a month or so, poised to trigger a new fifth wave of infections.

OHSU staff in the intensive care unit at Oregon Health and Science University in Portland, Ore., Aug. 19, 2021.

Kristyna Wentz-Graff / OPB

“Oregon probably has a little time, but each day is counting now,” said Peter Graven, a data scientist at Oregon Health and Science University and author of an influential COVID-19 statewide forecast. “The cases are here and it means that certainly in January we’re going to be dealing with this big time.”

Graven says while just three cases have been detected so far, likely many more have gone undetected. He points to places like the United Kingdom and Denmark, where the variant was first identified about three weeks ago — and is now driving up infection rates.

Whether that fifth wave is a lion or a lamb will likely hinge on two key factors: if Oregon can quickly increase the number of people who are vaccinated and have received a booster dose, and omicron’s virulence.

Losing herd immunity

So far, early evidence shows a two-dose course of approved vaccines is significantly less effective at preventing mild infection and transmission of omicron than it was against past variants.

While the data is limited, scientists say there are reasons to believe two doses may offer some protection against severe outcomes like hospitalization and death.

However, booster doses appear much more effective against omicron than just an initial course of vaccine.

“If you’re really interested in doing the things that you can do to protect yourself, boosting is something that is really likely to enhance your protective immunity,” said Dr. Bill Messer, a clinical researcher at OHSU who treats COVID-19 patients and studies viral evolution.

Only about 20 percent of Oregonians have gotten a booster shot so far.

Graven says the bottom line is that Oregon needs to drive up its booster rate — otherwise many more people will be susceptible to getting infected as the new variant spreads.

“We were getting very close to herd immunity once again with delta. Now, to have a lot of that immunity be kind of thrown out the window is a real problem,” he said.

Graven says getting booster doses to people in nursing homes and other types of long term care should happen immediately, before the variant has time to start spreading.

“They are still our most vulnerable group. They are the most likely to get sick and then need to go to the hospital. And many of their vaccines were delivered first, which means they have had the most time to wane. This is a population that needs to have their booster,” Graven said.

Less virulent — but how much less?

Graven and Messer both say research is pointing toward omicron causing less severe illness than other variants — a second key factor in what the next wave of cases may look like.

Messer cautions that much of the data on severity comes from South Africa, a country with a very young population, among whom COVID-19 tends to produce milder illness in general.

But he believes the research on virulence so far is good news.

“I am becoming cautiously optimistic that omicron is less virulent than delta or prior variants,” Messer said.

“The real question is how much less virulent.”

If omicron is a little less virulent, but capable of infecting lots of vaccinated people — that could still be enough to bring Oregon’s health system, still reeling from the delta wave, to its knees again.

“Even with a low rate of hospitalization, when we open up so many people to being no longer protected, it’s gonna put a real strain on our healthcare resources. It’s bad news.” Graven said.

Why vaccination still matters

Messer says its possible that omicron is inherently less virulent because of its mutations.

But another critical question is whether the variant is causing less severe infections because it is re-infecting a lot of people who have been infected previously and causing breakthrough cases in vaccinated people.

Experience with a previous version of the virus may be giving people’s immune systems a head start against the variant, regardless of its new mutations.

“There’s probably still protection against severity of illness for people who have been vaccinated,” Messer said.

He expects two types of immune cells, memory T cells and memory B cells, may still recognize omicron and begin to fight it.

Memory B cells, which produce antibodies, may play a particularly important role in moderating the severity of an infection with a new variant.

Messer says the best way to give your immune system a head start against omicron is to get boosted — or if you haven’t been vaccinated at all, to start the process.

“It’s helpful that it’s less virulent, but it still doesn’t do the work that vaccination would do to take the pressure off our health care system.”

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Second omicron case confirmed in NC :: WRAL.com

— A second case of the coronavirus’ omicron variant has been confirmed in North Carolina, a researcher said Wednesday.

Dirk Dittmer, an immunologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said he couldn’t provide specifics about the person infected with the fast-spreading variant, only that the case wasn’t in Charlotte, where North Carolina’s first omicron case was confirmed last week.

“It appears that the virus is getting around the state,” Dittmer told WRAL News.

Duke University Health System already worry the new variant could once again swamp hospitals with very sick patients.

More than 1,500 people statewide are hospitalized with COVID-19, and health experts say that number will quickly increase if people don’t protect themselves during the holiday season.

“We are really concerned that we are beginning to see the post-travel impact now in the hospitalizations of people,” said Dr. Becky Smith, an infectious disease expert with Duke Health.

Coronavirus infections and related hospitalizations have been rising steadily since Thanksgiving. The 3,755 new cases reported Wednesday were a 14 percent jump from a week ago, and the 3,200 cases a day over the past week is the highest the state’s average has been in two months.

When combined with holiday travel and the start of the flu season, the omicron variant and the still-present delta variant of the virus create a perfect storm for infections, Smith said. She added that she believes omicron will be the dominant variant in North Carolina by January.

“It’s really going to put a strain on ICU capacity, really hospital bed capacity,” she said. “[This is] just a plea to anyone who has not yet been vaccinated: Please protect yourself.”

Already, 86 percent of the COVID-19 patients at Duke Health’s hospitals are unvaccinated, as are 96 percent of those in intensive care.

“What I really wanted to do was reach out to everyone, to just remind you that vaccination remains highly protective against severe disease, hospitalization and death,” Smith said.

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Flu and Covid-19 cases rising in much of the US

There is growing concern that a rise in Omicron cases, paired with climbing Delta cases and an increase in flu cases, could overwhelm health systems this winter, as well as possibly leading to a need to ramp up Covid-19 testing capacities, Lori Tremmel Freeman, chief executive officer of the National Association of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO), told CNN on Wednesday.

“It’s the combination. It’s kind of the perfect storm of public health impacts here with Delta already impacting many areas of the country and jurisdictions,” Freeman said. “We don’t want to overwhelm systems more.”

“We do know influenza is going to come back and already has started to reappear in many places in the United States,” Patel said.

Now, health officials and doctors are preparing for more illness this winter.

‘It makes sense for us to be prepared’

The nation continues to grapple with the coronavirus pandemic, and health officials worry about adding flu patients to this burden.

“It makes sense for us to be prepared and maintain vigilance for influenza,” Patel said.

He added that flu activity is unpredictable.

“Last year or last season — really, in the past 18 months — we have had no influenza activity in the United States and minimal activity globally in the Southern Hemisphere or the Northern Hemisphere. And this really has not happened before since we’ve had surveillance for influenza,” Patel said. “The jury is still out on reasons why that hasn’t happened.”

In the first week of December, 841 people were admitted to US hospitals with influenza, according to the CDC. That’s up from the prior week, when there were 496 new flu admissions.

“Overall, influenza activity is still low; however, an increasing number of influenza positive tests have been reported by clinical and public health laboratories during recent weeks,” the CDC said in its weekly flu report. The majority of flu viruses were detected in young people, ages 5 to 24, but the proportion of flu virus detections among adults 25 and older has increased in recent weeks.
In late November, the CDC said increased flu activity has been detected among young adults and college students, which could mean the start of a new flu season. The agency also noted that as the flu and the virus that causes Covid-19 both circulate, the combination could stress health care systems throughout the United States.

Worry about a winter wave

“We are already in a Delta surge,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday night.

“The cases are going up. We have an average of about 117,000 cases. We have an increase in the percentage of hospitalizations. Deaths are still over a thousand,” Fauci said. “Then you have, looking over your shoulder, the Omicron variant, which we know, from what’s going on in South Africa and in the UK, is a highly transmissible virus.

“That’s the reason why we are encouraging people, if they haven’t been vaccinated, to get vaccinated but, as importantly, for those who’ve been fully vaccinated to get a booster.”

The United States is averaging 119,888 new Covid-19 cases each day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of Wednesday. This is about 50% higher than a month ago.

The United States is now also averaging 1,261 deaths each day, according to JHU. This is 5% higher than a month ago.

There are 67,306 people now hospitalized with Covid-19, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services. Hospitalizations have been trending up for more than two months, and this is 43% higher than a month ago.

This January, the United States could face a surge of Covid-19 cases, with the Omicron variant possibly contributing to the winter wave, according to modeling data that was presented to state and local health officials during a call with the CDC on Tuesday.

But that’s just one possible scenario.

The CDC told CNN in a written statement Tuesday that the agency “regularly discusses planning scenarios with public health officials around the country,” and Tuesday’s discussion “was part of a regularly scheduled meeting hosted by the CDC COVID-19 Response with the leaders of four public health organizations.”

The statement noted that the CDC is “preparing for a range of scenarios” involving the Omicron variant, and a portion of Tuesday’s meeting was dedicated to “discussion around results from various modeling groups related to Omicron” — but no CDC, US Department of Health and Human Services or US government models were presented.

The modeling information, along with data from Europe, indicates that the number of Covid-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant has the potential to double every two days, NACCHO’s Freeman told CNN.

“When you think about how this virus has the potential to double every two days, then in a couple of weeks, we’re going to be facing a lot of cases of Omicron,” said Freeman, who was on part of Tuesday’s call.

“That modeling implies that sometime in January, we will be at a different stage of recognizing Omicron, maybe as even a predominant virus. However, we still are learning about the severity, transmissibility,” Freeman said. “The data is emerging from around the world.”

The proportion of Omicron cases in the United States is expected to “continue to grow in the coming weeks,” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a virtual White House briefing Wednesday. She added that early data suggests Omicron is more transmissible than Delta, with a doubling time of about two days.
While the Delta variant continues to cause the most Covid-19 cases in the United States, Omicron has gone from causing 0.4% of cases in the week ending December 4 to 2.9% of cases in the week ending December 11, according to CDC data.

Currently, CDC data indicates that Delta causes 96.8% of cases.

‘We are definitely seeing an uptick in both infections’

Dr. Christina Johns, a pediatrician in Annapolis, Maryland, told CNN last week that there has been a “slow but steady” increase in patients testing positive for flu and Covid-19 in her pediatric network in recent weeks.

“We are definitely seeing an uptick in both infections over the last week,” said Johns, emergency medicine physician and senior medical adviser for PM Pediatrics, which has more than 70 pediatric office locations across the United States.

“We are starting to see a slow and steady trickle of an increase of cases. And why is that? Well, because this is the time of year when we typically start to see influenza begin to circulate,” she said. “But why aren’t we seeing the explosive uptick? One reason is that school-aged children are still largely masked in many school districts, and so I think that that helps to keep numbers down. The overall layered protective measures that are still in place in many areas are effective for both Covid as well as influenza.”

This winter, Johns said, there is the concern of a potential “twindemic” of Covid-19 and flu, and it’s important for people with any respiratory symptoms this season to see their doctor immediately for testing.

She said when young people — up to age 26 — come into her office with symptoms, such as a cough, fever or runny nose, the only way to determine whether they have the flu, Covid-19 or a common cold is through testing.

“I think that that’s an important point that needs to be made, especially right now while we are still in the midst of this pandemic,” Johns said.

“It is difficult to tell the difference without a test. There are some trends. Typically for influenza, the clinical hallmark is high fever, and that occurs less so in the common cold and is not always a feature of Covid-19 infection,” Johns said. “But none of that is 100%, and there’s enough overlap in all three of these that, really, the only way to know the difference is through testing.”

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